Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “inverse prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 487 records · Page 27

Discovery of van Hove singularities: electronic fingerprints of 3Q magnetic order in a van der Waals quantum magnet

Magnetically intercalated transition metal dichalcogenides are emerging as a rich platform for exploring exotic quantum states in van der Waals magnets. Among them, Co x TaS 2 has attracted intense interest following the recent discovery of a distinctive 3Q magnetic ground state and a pronounced topological Hall effect below a critical doping of x ≈ 1/3, both intimately tied to cobalt concentration. To date, direct signatures of this enigmatic 3Q magnetic order in the electronic structure remain elusive. Here we report a comprehensive doping dependent angle resolved photoemission spectroscopy study that unveils these long-sought fingerprints. Our data reveal an unexpected inverse-Mexican-hat dispersion along the K-M-K' direction, accompanied by two van Hove singularities. These features are consistent with theoretical predictions for a 3Q magnetic order near three-quarters band filling on a cobalt triangular lattice. These results provide evidence of 3Q magnetic order in the electronic structure, establishing TMD van der Waals magnets as tunable materials to explore the interplay between magnetism and topology.

Luo, Hai-Lan [University of California, Berkeley, ↗

Density matrix renormalization group description of the island of inversion isotopes F 28 – 33

Recent experiments have confirmed that the neutron-rich isotopes 28,29 F belong to the so-called island of inversion (IOI), a region of the nuclear chart around Z = 10 and N = 20 where nuclear structure deviates from the standard shell model predictions due to deformation and continuum effects. However, while the general principles leading to the IOI are relatively well understood, the details of the low-lying structure of the exotic fluorine isotopes 28–33 F are basically unknown. In this study, we perform large-scale shell model calculations including continuum states to investigate the properties of the neutron-rich isotopes 25–33 F, from a core of 24 O and using an effective two-body interaction with a small number of adjustable parameters in the central and tensor channels. We develop two models adjusted on experimentally confirmed states in 25,26 O and 25–27 F based on different assumptions concerning the positions of the neutron 0d 3/2 and 1p 3/2 shells, and solve the many-body problem using the density matrix renormalization group (DMRG) method for open quantum systems in an sd–fp model space. We obtain the first detailed spectroscopy of 25–33F in the continuum and show how the interplay between continuum effects and deformation explains the recent data on 28,29 F. Several deformed one- and two-neutron halo states are predicted in 29,31 F, and we provide some information about the possible structure of the heaviest fluorine isotopes. We also suggest several experimental studies of interest to constraint models and test the present predictions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Three-Dimensional Aerodynamics and Vortex-Shedding Characteristics of Wind Turbine Airfoils over 360-Degree Angles of Attack

In this work, we present the first three-dimensional (3D) computational investigation of wind turbine airfoils over 360° angles of attack to predict unsteady aerodynamic loads and vortex-shedding characteristics. To this end, static–airfoil simulations are performed for the FFA-W3 airfoil family at a Reynolds number of 107 with the Improved Delayed Detached Eddy Simulation turbulence model. Aerodynamic forces reveal that the onset of boundary-layer instabilities and flow separation does not necessarily coincide with the onset of stall. In addition, a comparison with two-dimensional simulation data and flat plate theory extension of airfoil polars, suggest that, in the deep stall regime, 3D effects remain critical for predicting both the unsteady loads and the vortex-shedding dynamics. For all airfoils, the vortex-shedding frequencies are found to be inversely proportional to the wake width. In the case of slender airfoils, the frequencies are nearly independent of the airfoil thickness, and their corresponding Strouhal number St is approximately 0.15. Based on the calculated St, the potential for shedding frequencies to coincide with the natural frequencies of the International Energy Agency 15 MW reference wind turbine blades is investigated. The analysis shows that vortex-induced vibrations occur primarily at angles of attack of around ±90° for all airfoils.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Very-high-energy Emission from Pulsars

Abstract Air-Cherenkov telescopes have detected pulsations at energies above 50 GeV from a growing number of Fermi pulsars. These include the Crab, Vela, PSR B1706−44, and Geminga, with the first two having pulsed detections above 1 TeV. In some cases, there appears to be very-high-energy (VHE) emission that is an extension of the Fermi spectra to high energies, while in other cases, additional higher-energy spectral components that require a separate emission mechanism may be present. We present results of broadband spectral modeling using global magnetospheric fields and multiple emission mechanisms that include synchro-curvature (SC) and inverse Compton scattered (ICS) radiation from accelerated particles (primaries) and synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) emission from lower-energy pairs. Our models predict three distinct VHE components: SC from primaries whose high-energy tail can extend to 100 GeV, SSC from pairs that can extend to several TeV, and ICS from primary particles accelerated in the current sheet that scatter pair synchrotron radiation, which appears beyond 10 TeV. Our models suggest that H.E.S.S.-II and MAGIC have detected the high-energy tail of the primary SC component that produces the Fermi spectrum in Vela, Geminga, and PSR B1706−44. We argue that the ICS component peaking above 10 TeV from Vela has been seen by H.E.S.S. Detection of this emission component from the Crab and other pulsars is possible with the High Altitude Water Cherenkov Observatory and Cherenkov Telescope Array, and will directly measure the maximum particle energy in pulsars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Application of statistical inversion to ground-based microwave remote sensing of temperature and water vapor profiles

Surface-based observations of downwelling microwave thermal emission are related to temperature and humidity profiles via a standard integral equation of radiative transfer. Both in clear and in cloudy atmospheres, statistical inversion techniques are used to retrieve profiles from a data vector of brightness observations and surface meteorological constraints. For the clear case, accuracy predictions and profile retrievals are illustrated for: (1) single frequency angular scanned data; (2) multi-frequency angular scanned data; and (3) multi-frequency zenith data. For the last case predicted and achieved accuracies were compared in a recently conducted radiometric experiment. Retrievals of cloud contaminated radiometric data are elaborated.

Westwater, E. R.↗

Parabolized Navier-Stokes analysis of ducted turbulent mixing problems with finite-rate chemistry

A hybrid implicit/explicit approach for analyzing 2D ducted turbulent mixing problems with finite-rate chemistry is presented. The approach combines a fully-implicit parabolic mixing algorithm, an explicit viscous-characteristic based shock-capturing algorithm, and linearized implicit chemical kinetic algorithm. The resultant model provides spatial marching solutions of the parabolized Navier-Stokes (PNS) equations for supersonic combustion and viscous nozzle flowfields. Specialized procedures are incorporated to deal with the near wall sublayer and with small central pockets of subsonic flow. A parabolic option is available which can be utilized in the direct or inverse mode for design applications. The ability of the model to treat shock waves and wave/mixing layer interactions is assessed via comparisons of predictions with those of well established explicit shock-capturing Euler (SCIPPY) and PNS (SCIPVIS) models. Applications to a variety of supersonic combustion flowfield problems involving tangential or moderately inclined fuel injection, and, to a viscous nozzle flow problem, are presented. This paper serves to exhibit overall capabilities of the model developed and no comparisons with supersonic combustion data are presented. Such comparisons serve mainly to validate the modeling of the turbulence and turbulence/chemical interactions and will be the subject of a future paper.

Sinha, N.↗

Numerical model for the Programmable Multirole Furnace (PMZF)

The present account of the Programmable Multizone Furnace numerical model uses various examples to illustrate the ways in which the model serves as an optimization, test, prediction, and visualization tool; a numerical PID-control algorithm obtains the desired sample temperature distributions and allows the model to solve an inverse heat transfer problem where the desired sample temperature profile is the input and the required heater power distribution is the output of numerical simulations. Parametric studies show how the total power consumption of the furnace is affected by such design variables as the conductivity.

Kassemi, M.↗

Retrieval of thermospheric atomic oxygen, nitrogen and temperature from the 732 NM emission measured by the ISO on ATLAS 1

The Imaging Spectrometric Observatory (ISO) was a part of the ATLAS 1 Mission flown on the shuttle Atlantis from March 24 to April 2, 1992. During limb scanning operations, the ISO measured the O+(2P) ion emission at 732 nm. We have used a numerical inversion technique to retrieve thermospheric atomic oxygen, molecular nitrogen and temperature profiles. These preliminary results indicate a lower thermospheric temperature cooler than that predicted by MSIS for the solar conditions during the mission. Although the densities agree at low altitudes, the reduced scale height produces O and N2 densities 25 percent lower than the MSIS at 300 km.

Fennelly, Judy A.↗

Effects of precipitation on the thermodynamic structure of the trade wind boundary layer

A model of the thermodynamic structure of the trade wind boundary layer is formulated to include the parameterization of precipitation in relatively shallow clouds. Although the area-averaged simulated precipitation rates are relatively small (less than 1 mm/day), the inclusion of precipitation has an appreciable effect on the predicted thermodynamic structure. The cloud layer structure simulated with precipitation is warmer, drier, and more stable than that simulated without precipitation. The simulated inversion height is lowered by as much as 60 mbar when precipitation is included.

Albrecht, Bruce A.↗

Toward a Comprehensive Carbon Budget for North America: Potential Applications of Adjoint Methods with Diverse Datasets

A detailed mechanistic understanding of the sources and sinks of CO2 will be required to reliably predict future COS levels and climate. A commonly used technique for deriving information about CO2 exchange with surface reservoirs is to solve an "inverse problem," where CO2 observations are used with an atmospheric transport model to find the optimal distribution of sources and sinks. Synthesis inversion methods are powerful tools for addressing this question, but the results are disturbingly sensitive to the details of the calculation. Studies done using different atmospheric transport models and combinations of surface station data have produced substantially different distributions of surface fluxes. Adjoint methods are now being developed that will more effectively incorporate diverse datasets in estimates of surface fluxes of CO2. In an adjoint framework, it will be possible to combine CO2 concentration data from long-term surface monitoring stations with data from intensive field campaigns and with proposed future satellite observations. A major advantage of the adjoint approach is that meteorological and surface data, as well as data for other atmospheric constituents and pollutants can be efficiently included in addition to observations of CO2 mixing ratios. This presentation will provide an overview of potentially useful datasets for carbon cycle research in general with an emphasis on planning for the North American Carbon Project. Areas of overlap with ongoing and proposed work on air quality/air pollution issues will be highlighted.

Andrews, A.↗

An Adjoint-Based Analysis of the Sampling Footprints of Tall Tower, Aircraft and Potential Future Lidar Observations of CO2

A detailed mechanistic understanding of the sources and sinks of CO2 will be required to reliably predict future CO2 levels and climate. A commonly used technique for deriving information about CO2 exchange with surface reservoirs is to solve an 'inverse problem', where CO2 observations are used with an atmospheric transport model to find the optimal distribution of sources and sinks. Synthesis inversion methods are powerful tools for addressing this question, but the results are disturbingly sensitive to the details of the calculation. Studies done using different atmospheric transport models and combinations of surface station data have produced substantially different distributions of surface fluxes. Adjoint methods are now being developed that will more effectively incorporate diverse datasets in estimates of surface fluxes of CO2. In an adjoint framework, it will be possible to combine CO2 concentration data from longterm surface and aircraft monitoring stations with data from intensive field campaigns and with proposed future satellite observations. We have recently developed an adjoint for the GSFC 3-D Parameterized Chemistry and Transport Model (PCTM). Here, we will present results from a PCTM Adjoint study comparing the sampling footprints of tall tower, aircraft and potential future lidar observations of CO2. The vertical resolution and extent of the profiles and the observation frequency will be considered for several sites in North America.

Andrews, Arlyn↗

Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

The expected peak wind speed of the day is an important forecast element in the 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts. The forecasts are used for ground and space launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45 WS also issues wind advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect wind gusts to meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated peak wind speeds are challenging to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October - April. In Phase I of this task, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool to help the 45 WS forecast non-convective winds at KSC/CCAFS for the 24-hour period of 0800 to 0800 local time. The tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI displayed the forecast of peak wind speed, 5-minute average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, timing of the peak wind and probability the peak speed would meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. For the current task (Phase II ), the 45 WS requested additional observations be used for the creation of the forecast equations by expanding the period of record (POR). Additional parameters were evaluated as predictors, including wind speeds between 500 ft and 3000 ft, static stability classification, Bulk Richardson Number, mixing depth, vertical wind shear, temperature inversion strength and depth and wind direction. Using a verification data set, the AMU compared the performance of the Phase I and II prediction methods. Just as in Phase I, the tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel GUI. The 45 WS requested the tool also be available in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The AMU first expanded the POR by two years by adding tower observations, surface observations and CCAFS (XMR) soundings for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The POR was expanded again by six years, from October 1996 to April 2002, by interpolating 1000-ft sounding data to 100-ft increments. The Phase II developmental data set included observations for the cool season months of October 1996 to February 2007. The AMU calculated 68 candidate predictors from the XMR soundings, to include 19 stability parameters, 48 wind speed parameters and one wind shear parameter. Each day in the data set was stratified by synoptic weather pattern, low-level wind direction, precipitation and Richardson Number, for a total of 60 stratification methods. Linear regression equations, using the 68 predictors and 60 stratification methods, were created for the tool's three forecast parameters: the highest peak wind speed of the day (PWSD), 5-minute average speed at the same time (A WSD), and timing of the PWSD. For PWSD and A WSD, 30 Phase II methods were selected for evaluation in the verification data set. For timing of the PWSD, 12 Phase\I methods were selected for evaluation. The verification data set contained observations for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The data set was used to compare the Phase I and II forecast methods to climatology, model forecast winds and wind advisories issued by the 45 WS. The model forecast winds were derived from the 0000 and 1200 UTC runs of the 12-km North American Mesoscale (MesoNAM) model. The forecast methods that performed the best in the verification data set were selected for the Phase II version of the tool. For PWSD and A WSD, linear regression equations based on MesoNAM forecasts performed significantly better than the Phase I and II methods. For timing of the PWSD, none of the methods performed significantly bener than climatology. The AMU then developed the Microsoft Excel and MIDDS GUls. The GUIs display the forecasts for PWSD, AWSD and the probability the PWSD will meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. Since none of the prediction methods for timing of the PWSD performed significantly better thanlimatology, the tool no longer displays this predictand. The Excel and MIDDS GUIs display forecasts for Day-I to Day-3 and Day-I to Day-5, respectively. The Excel GUI uses MesoNAM forecasts as input, while the MIDDS GUI uses input from the MesoNAM and Global Forecast System model. Based on feedback from the 45 WS, the AMU added the daily average wind speed from 30 ft to 60 ft to the tool, which is one of the parameters in the 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45 WS. In addition, the AMU expanded the MIDDS GUI to include forecasts out to Day-7.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

Satellite-Based Spatiotemporal Trends in PM2.5 Concentrations: China 2004-2013

Three decades of rapid economic development is causing severe and widespread PM2.5(particulate matter (is) less than 2.5 ) pollution in China. However, research on the health impacts of PM2.5 exposure has been hindered by limited historical PM2.5 concentration data. We estimated ambient PM2.5 concentrations from 2004 to 2013 in China at 0.1 deg resolution using the most recent satellite data and evaluated model performance with available ground observations. We developed a two-stage spatial statistical model using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6 aerosol optical depth (AOD) and assimilated meteorology, land use data, and PM2.5 concentrations from China's recently established ground monitoring network. An inverse variance weighting (IVW) approach was developed to combine MODIS Dark Target and Deep Blue AOD to optimize data coverage. We evaluated model predicted PM2.5 concentrations from 2004 to early 2014 using ground observations. The overall model cross-validation R(sup 2) and relative prediction error were 0.79 and 35.6%, respectively. Validation beyond the model year (2013) indicated that it accurately predicted PM(sub 2.5) concentrations with little bias at the monthly (R(sup 2) = 0.73), regression slope = 0.91) and seasonal (R(sup 2) = 0.79), regression slope = 0.92) levels. Seasonal variations revealed that winter was the most polluted season and that summer was the cleanest season. Analysis of predicted PM2.5 levels showed a mean annual increase of 1.97 micro-g/cu cm between 2004 and 2007 and a decrease of 0.46 micro-g/cu cm between 2008 and 2013. Our satellite-driven model can provide reliable historical PM2.5 estimates in China at a resolution comparable to those used in epidemiologic studies on the health effects of long-term PM2.5 exposure in North America. This data source can potentially advance research on PM2.5 health effects in China.

satellite remote sensing↗

Very-high-energy Emission from Pulsars

Air-Cherenkov telescopes have detected pulsations at energies above 50 GeV from a growing number of Fermi pulsars. These include the Crab, Vela, PSR B1706−44, and Geminga, with the first two having pulsed detections above 1 TeV. In some cases, there appears to be very-high-energy (VHE) emission that is an extension of the Fermi spectra to high energies, while in other cases, additional higher-energy spectral components that require a separate emission mechanism may be present. We present results of broadband spectral modeling using global magnetospheric fields and multiple emission mechanisms that include synchro-curvature (SC) and inverse Compton scattered (ICS) radiation from accelerated particles (primaries) and synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) emission from lower-energy pairs. Our models predict three distinct VHE components: SC from primaries whose high-energy tail can extend to 100 GeV, SSC from pairs that can extend to several TeV, and ICS from primary particles accelerated in the current sheet that scatter pair synchrotron radiation, which appears beyond 10 TeV. Our models suggest that H.E.S.S.-II and MAGIC have detected the high-energy tail of the primary SC component that produces the Fermi spectrum in Vela, Geminga, and PSR B1706−44. We argue that the ICS component peaking above 10 TeV from Vela has been seen by H.E.S.S. Detection of this emission component from the Crab and other pulsars is possible with the High Altitude Water Cherenkov Observatory and Cherenkov Telescope Array, and will directly measure the maximum particle energy in pulsars.

Alice K. Harding↗

Report on the LLNL Global Full-waveform Inversion Workflow and Progress

LLNL has developed the SPiRaL global seismic tomography model based upon millions of body wave travel times and surface wave dispersion curves in the period range of 25-200 seconds (Simmons et al., 2021). The motivation to construct the SPiRaL model (which stands for S-, P-, Rayleigh, and Love waves) is based upon the guidance provided by a 3-D model workshop held in Berkeley in 2007 and documented in a paper by Zucca et al. (2009). It was concluded in Zucca et al. (2009) that a “practical and obtainable” model is one that predicts body wave travel times for event location while also predicting surface wave velocities for moment tensor estimation. We have largely followed that guidance which has led to the construction of SPiRaL. Looking forward, we now seek to improve the global model through full waveform inversion (FWI). This necessitates the development/customization of an efficient and flexible modeling workflow to automate the process using LLNL’s supercomputing platforms. This report briefly outlines the work that being performed at LLNL to develop the necessary tools and framework to update the SPiRaL global model with full waveform information.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Using onset times from frequent seismic surveys to understand fluid flow at the Peace River Field, Canada

With our limited knowledge of the relationship between changes in the state of an aquifer or reservoir and the corresponding changes in the elastic moduli, that is the rock physics model, hampers the effective use of time-lapse seismic observations for estimating flow properties within the Earth. A central problem is the complicated dependence of the magnitude of time-lapse changes on the saturation, pressure, and temperature changes within an aquifer or reservoir. We describe an inversion methodology for reservoir characterization that uses onset times, the calendar time of the change in seismic attributes, rather than the magnitude of the changes. We find that onset times are much less sensitive than magnitudes to the rock physics model used to relate time-lapse observations to changes in saturation, temperature and fluid pressure. We apply the inversion scheme to observations from daily monitoring of enhanced oil recovery at the Peace River field in Canada. An array of 1492 buried hydrophones record seismic signals from 49 buried sources. Time-shifts for elastic waves traversing the reservoir are extracted from the daily time-lapse cubes. In our analysis 175 images of time-shifts are transformed into a single map of onset times, leading to a substantial reduction in the volume of data. These observations are used in conjunction with bottom hole pressure data to infer the initial conditions prior to the injection, and to update the reservoir permeability model. The combination of a global and local inversion scheme produces a collection of reservoir models that are best described by three clusters. The updated model leads to a nearly 70 percent reduction in seismic data misfit. The final set of solutions successfully predict the observed normalized pressure history during the soak and flow-back into the wells between 82 and 175 days into the cyclic steaming operation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hierarchical off-diagonal low-rank approximation of Hessians in inverse problems, with application to ice sheet model initialization

Obtaining lightweight and accurate approximations of discretized objective functional Hessians in inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) is essential to make both deterministic and Bayesian statistical large-scale inverse problems computationally tractable. The cubic computational complexity of dense linear algebraic tasks, such as Cholesky factorization, that provide a means to sample Gaussian distributions and determine solutions of Newton linear systems is a computational bottleneck at large-scale. These tasks can be reduced to log-linear complexity by utilizing hierarchical off-diagonal low-rank (HODLR) matrix approximations. In this work, we show that a class of Hessians that arise from inverse problems governed by PDEs are well approximated by the HODLR matrix format. In particular, we study inverse problems governed by PDEs that model the instantaneous viscous flow of ice sheets. In these problems, we seek a spatially distributed basal sliding parameter field such that the flow predicted by the ice sheet model is consistent with ice sheet surface velocity observations. Here, we demonstrate the use of HODLR Hessian approximation to efficiently sample the Laplace approximation of the posterior distribution with covariance further approximated by HODLR matrix compression. Computational studies are performed which illustrate ice sheet problem regimes for which the Gauss–Newton data-misfit Hessian is more efficiently approximated by the HODLR matrix format than the low-rank (LR) format. We then demonstrate that HODLR approximations can be favorable, when compared to global LR approximations, for large-scale problems by studying the data-misfit Hessian associated with inverse problems governed by the first-order Stokes flow model on the Humboldt glacier and Greenland ice sheet.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Improving vertical detail in simulated temperature and humidity data using machine learning

Atmospheric models used for weather forecasting and climate predictions discretise the atmosphere onto a vertical grid. There are however atmospheric phenomena that occur on scales smaller than the thickness of those model layers. The formation of low-level clouds due to temperature inversions is an example. This leads to atmospheric models underestimating, or even missing, these clouds and their radiative effects. Using radiosonde observations as training data, a machine learning model is used to improve the vertical detail of modelled profiles of temperature and specific humidity. In addition, a physics-informed machine learning model is developed and compared to the traditional approach; showing improvements in the cloud fraction profiles calculated from its predictions. The vertically enhanced profiles also improve the representation of layers of convective inhibition and anomalous refractivity gradients. This work facilitates targeted improvements to the representation of certain atmospheric processes without the burden of increased memory and computational cost from increasing vertical resolution throughout the whole model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗