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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1984

Forecast Impact of Components of the FGGE Observing System

Experiments have been conducted to assess the summer and winter forecast impact of the FGGE system, and of its main observing components: temperature sounding data derived from the TIROS-N polar orbiting satellite, cloud track winds determined from geostationary satellite observations and drifting buoy data which were collected by satellite during FGGE. The Analysis/Forecast System used has a number of improvements upon the system utilized by Halen et al. (1982) for the FGGE Special Observing Period-1 (SOP-1). Several modifications were made in the analysis scheme, the most important being the interpolation of the analysis minus 6 h forecast deviations rather than of the analyzed fields themselves. The forecast model is still the 4 deg lat, 5 deg lon and 9 vertical levels GLAS Fourth Order GCM with several minor corrections implemented in the physics and numerics. The improved vertical interpolation in the analysis resulted in better assimilation of rawinsonde data, which has more vertical structure than satellite data. As a result, there was an improvement of the forecasts derived from conventional data only, and, consequently, a small reduction of the positive impact of satellite data from that obtained by Halem et al. (1982).

Kalnay, E.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Propagation and Breaking at High Altitudes of Gravity Waves Excited by Tropospheric Forcing

An anelastic approximation is used with a time-variable coordinate transformation to formulate a two-dimensional numerical model that describes the evolution of gravity waves. The model is solved using a semi-Lagrangian method with monotone (nonoscillatory) interpolation of all advected fields. The time-variable transformation is used to generate disturbances at the lower boundary that approximate the effect of a traveling line of thunderstorms (a squall line) or of flow over a broad topographic obstacle. The vertical propagation and breaking of the gravity wave field (under conditions typical of summer solstice) is illustrated for each of these cases. It is shown that the wave field at high altitudes is dominated by a single horizontal wavelength; which is not always related simply to the horizontal dimension of the source. The morphology of wave breaking depends on the horizontal wavelength; for sufficiently short waves, breaking involves roughly one half of the wavelength. In common with other studies, it is found that the breaking waves undergo "self-acceleration," such that the zonal-mean intrinsic frequency remains approximately constant in spite of large changes in the background wind. It is also shown that many of the features obtained in the calculations can be understood in terms of linear wave theory. In particular, linear theory provides insights into the wavelength of the waves that break at high altitudes, the onset and evolution of breaking. the horizontal extent of the breaking region and its position relative to the forcing, and the minimum and maximum altitudes where breaking occurs. Wave breaking ceases at the altitude where the background dissipation rate (which in our model is a proxy for molecular diffusion) becomes greater than the rate of dissipation due to wave breaking, This altitude, in effect, the model turbopause, is shown to depend on a relatively small number of parameters that characterize the waves and the background state.

Prusa, Joseph M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A Kalman filter for a two-dimensional shallow-water model

A two-dimensional Kalman filter is described for data assimilation for making weather forecasts. The filter is regarded as superior to the optimal interpolation method because the filter determines the forecast error covariance matrix exactly instead of using an approximation. A generalized time step is defined which includes expressions for one time step of the forecast model, the error covariance matrix, the gain matrix, and the evolution of the covariance matrix. Subsequent time steps are achieved by quantifying the forecast variables or employing a linear extrapolation from a current variable set, assuming the forecast dynamics are linear. Calculations for the evolution of the error covariance matrix are banded, i.e., are performed only with the elements significantly different from zero. Experimental results are provided from an application of the filter to a shallow-water simulation covering a 6000 x 6000 km grid.

Parrish, D. F.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate Compression of Tabulated Chemistry Models with Partition of Unity Networks

Tabulated chemistry models are widely used to simulate large-scale turbulent fires in applications including energy generation and fire safety. Tabulation via piecewise Cartesian interpolation suffers from the curse-of-dimensionality, leading to a prohibitive exponential growth in parameters and memory usage as more dimensions are considered. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have attracted attention for constructing surrogates for chemistry models due to their ability to perform high-dimensional approximation. However, due to well-known pathologies regarding the realization of suboptimal local minima during training, in practice they do not converge and provide unreliable accuracy. Partition of unity networks (POUnets) are a recently introduced family of ANNs which preserve notions of convergence while performing high-dimensional approximation, discovering a mesh-free partition of space which may be used to perform optimal polynomial approximation. In this work, we assess their performance with respect to accuracy and model complexity in reconstructing unstructured flamelet data representative of nonadiabatic pool fire models. Our results show that POUnets can provide the desirable accuracy of classical spline-based interpolants with the low memory footprint of traditional ANNs while converging faster to significantly lower errors than ANNs. For example, we observe POUnets obtaining target accuracies in two dimensions with 40 to 50 times less memory and roughly double the compression in three dimensions. We also address the practical matter of efficiently training accurate POUnets by studying convergence over key hyperparameters, the impact of partition/basis formulation, and the sensitivity to initialization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scalable Volume Visualization for Big Scientific Data Modeled by Functional Approximation

Considering the challenges posed by the space and time complexities in handling extensive scientific volumetric data, various data representations have been developed for the analysis of large-scale scientific data. Multivariate functional approximation (MFA) is an innovative data model designed to tackle substantial challenges in scientific data analysis. It computes values and derivatives with high-order accuracy throughout the spatial domain, mitigating artifacts associated with zero- or first-order interpolation. However, the slow query time through MFA makes it less suitable for interactively visualizing a large MFA model. In this work, we develop the first scalable interactive volume visualization pipeline, MFA-DVV, for the MFA model encoded from large-scale datasets. Our method achieves low input latency through distributed architecture, and its performance can be further enhanced by utilizing a compressed MFA model while still maintaining a high-quality rendering result for scientific datasets. We conduct comprehensive experiments to show that MFA-DVV can decrease the input latency and achieve superior visualization results for big scientific data compared with existing approaches.

big scientific dataset↗
NASA NTRS2015

Spectral Analysis of Forecast Error Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

The spectra of analysis and forecast error are examined using the observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASAGMAO). A global numerical weather prediction model, the Global Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation, is cycled for two months with once-daily forecasts to 336 hours to generate a control case. Verification of forecast errors using the Nature Run as truth is compared with verification of forecast errors using self-analysis; significant underestimation of forecast errors is seen using self-analysis verification for up to 48 hours. Likewise, self analysis verification significantly overestimates the error growth rates of the early forecast, as well as mischaracterizing the spatial scales at which the strongest growth occurs. The Nature Run-verified error variances exhibit a complicated progression of growth, particularly for low wave number errors. In a second experiment, cycling of the model and data assimilation over the same period is repeated, but using synthetic observations with different explicitly added observation errors having the same error variances as the control experiment, thus creating a different realization of the control. The forecast errors of the two experiments become more correlated during the early forecast period, with correlations increasing for up to 72 hours before beginning to decrease.

OSSE↗
NASA NTRS2024

Impact Response of Thermoplastic Composites – Experiments and Modeling

This study investigates the impact response of thermoplastic composite materials. The material system under consideration is a carbon fiber reinforced low melt semi-crystalline resin TC1225 LMPAEK reinforced with T700G (T700/LMPAEK ). Several High Energy Dynamic Impact (HEDI) tests were performed wherein an aluminum projectile impacted T700/LMPAEK panels at different velocities. In the impact experiment studied herein, the projectile impacted the T700/LMAPEK panel at 73.2 m/s and rebounded. The ensuing damage to the T700/LMPAEK panel was characterized via ultrasonic C-scans, visualizing damage modes including matrix cracking and delaminations. Since the projectile rebounded, the fiber breakage damage mode was not evident. The impact event was modeled using a combined continuum damage mechanics and cohesive zone analysis approach with the commercially available hydrocode LS-DYNA®. The dynamic deformation and damage of the continuum, i.e., the plies in the T700/LMPAEK laminate, was modeled using a Deformation Gradient Decomposition (DGD) material model, i.e., MAT299 available within LS-DYNA. The interlaminar regions were treated as zero-thickness cohesive zones, wherein the dynamic delamination mechanics was modeled using a traction-separation formulation. Mixed-mode delamination growth was captured using the Benzegaggh-Kenane (B-K) traction-separation interpolation law. Strain-rate sensitivity of interlaminar fracture toughness was included using approximations based on published literature. The outcomes of the modeling effort are discussed herein which demonstrate good correlations with test data regarding panel deflection, panel-projectile interactions, damage modes and damage extent.

Impact modeling↗
NASA NTRS1990

Analytical aerodynamic model of a high alpha research vehicle wind-tunnel model

A 6 DOF analytical aerodynamic model of a high alpha research vehicle is derived. The derivation is based on wind-tunnel model data valid in the altitude-Mach flight envelope centered at 15,000 ft altitude and 0.6 Mach number with Mach range between 0.3 and 0.9. The analytical models of the aerodynamics coefficients are nonlinear functions of alpha with all control variable and other states fixed. Interpolation is required between the parameterized nonlinear functions. The lift and pitching moment coefficients have unsteady flow parts due to the time range of change of angle-of-attack (alpha dot). The analytical models are plotted and compared with their corresponding wind-tunnel data. Piloted simulated maneuvers of the wind-tunnel model are used to evaluate the analytical model. The maneuvers considered are pitch-ups, 360 degree loaded and unloaded rolls, turn reversals, split S's, and level turns. The evaluation finds that (1) the analytical model is a good representation at Mach 0.6, (2) the longitudinal part is good for the Mach range 0.3 to 0.9, and (3) the lateral part is good for Mach numbers between 0.6 and 0.9. The computer simulations show that the storage requirement of the analytical model is about one tenth that of the wind-tunnel model and it runs twice as fast.

Cao, Jichang↗
NASA NTRS1994

The scale and persistence of soil moisture anomalies as simulated in a global model

Short term variability of climate is intimately connected with soil moisture variability. Soil moisture provides the storage and subsequent return to the atmosphere, through evaporation and transpiration, of precipitation anomalies over land. Global Circulation Model (GCM) simulations enable consistent identification of correlations and dynamical connections between the hydrologic variables, many of which are incompletely observed. One way to facilitate understanding with these increasingly intricate models is to perform sensitivity studies in which a boundary condition or process is prescribed. In this study we will report on a sensitivity study in which a GCM with a sophisticated land surface representation is used to investigate soil moisture variability in the model climate. The simulations to be used in this study were made at R15 resolution (approximately 4.5 deg latitude x 7.5 deg longitude) with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SST) in the GENESIS model (Thompson and Pollard, 1994), which is coupled to a Land Surface Transfer model (LSX) at 2 deg x 2 deg resolution (Pollard and Thompson, 1994). All the results represented here were taken from the monthly averages of the model results. The LSX model accounts for the physical effects of vegetation with two layers specified at each grid point. Vegetation attributes such as leaf area indices, fractional cover, leaf albedos, etc., were taken from the global dataset in Dorman and Sellers (1989). A six-layer soil model extends from the surface to 4.25 m depth. SST's were prescribed in two ten year experiments using monthly SST values with the daily value being interpolated from the nearest two months. In the first experiment monthly climatological values were used, and in the second, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) observed SST's for the years 1979 through 1988 were used (Gates, 1992). Thus, the former experiment gives a measure of the intrinsic model variability, to be compared with that of the latter experiment, which includes month-to-month variability due to ocean forcing.

Fitzjarrald, D.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Six-degree-of-freedom aircraft simulation with mixed-data structure using the applied dynamics simulation language, ADSIM

A realistic simulation of an aircraft in the flight using the AD 100 digital computer is presented. The implementation of three model features is specifically discussed: (1) a large aerodynamic data base (130,00 function values) which is evaluated using function interpolation to obtain the aerodynamic coefficients; (2) an option to trim the aircraft in longitudinal flight; and (3) a flight control system which includes a digital controller. Since the model includes a digital controller the simulation implements not only continuous time equations but also discrete time equations, thus the model has a mixed-data structure.

Savaglio, Clare↗
NASA NTRS1984

Interpolation problems in meteor radar analysis, part 7.6A

Meteor echoes come from random points in the observation volume, and are irregularly spaced in time. This precludes the use of fast fourier transformations (FFT) techniques on the raw data to give the spectrum of waves that are present. One way around this obstacle is to restrict our interest to a particular class of waves, and fit a corresponding model to the raw data. It is assumed that there is no horizontal variation across the observation volume for tides, but in the vertical this is certainly not the case. If, in addition, we are interested in other types of waves which may be present and whose periods are unknown, then examining the raw line-of-sight velocities does not tell us how to modify the model, since the line-of-sight direction is not fixed. This is the motivation for interpolation. Interpolation takes a temporal series of line-of-sight velocities, and transforms it to a temporal series of wind velocities for each orthogonal direction. The velocities along a given direction can then be examined readily for any waves in addition to tides.

Tetenbaum, D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Projections of Declining Surface-Water Availability for the Southwestern United States

16 of the CMIP5 models had all the data needed for this work for at least one simulation that was continuous from 1950 to 2040. Details of the models analyzed here are provided in Table S1. The model data analyzed here are available at http://strega.ldeo.columbia.edu:81/expert/home/.naomi/.AR5/.v2/.historical:rcp85/.mmm16/ a. Assessing the climatology of the models Despite increases in horizontal resolution of many models compared to their CMIP3 counterparts none of these models can adequately resolve the topography of the south west United States, such as the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains and the associated orographic precipitation. This requires that caution be used when interpreting the results presented here. To assess the ability of the models to simulate the current hydroclimate, in Figure S1 we show the observed (from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre gridded rain gauge data, (1)) monthly climatology of precipitation and the same for all the models and the multimodel mean for the California-Nevada, Colorado headwaters and Texas regions. The GPCC data uses rain gauges only and interpolates to regular grids of which we used the 1◦ by 1◦ one. Details of the data set can be found in (2). While the models apparently overestimate precipitation in California and Nevada the seasonal cycle with wet winters and dry summers is very well represented. It is also possible that the rain gauge observations are biased low by inadequately sampling the higher mountain regions. How ever the models might also be expected to underestimate orographic precipitation due to inadequate horizontal resolution. The 25 models are also too wet in the Colorado headwaters region but correctly represent the quite even distribution though the year. The bimodal distribution of precipitation in Texas, with peaks in May and September, and the absolute amounts, are well modeled but with the September peak too weak. The positive precipitation bias translates into a positive runoff bias for the Colorado headwaters as also shown in Figure S1. Here the observed runoff values are taken from simulations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface-hydrology model (3) forced by observed meteorology (5) that were conducted as part of the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 ( (NLDAS-2), http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/. Runoff for California-Nevada is better simulated but there is a positive bias over Texas despite no strong precipitation bias. To check whether regional climate models better simulate P and runoff in these regions we analyzed the historical simulation with the Regional Climate Model version 3 driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 available from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (http://www.narccap.ucar.edu). This model configuration retained these biases in P and runoff although they were reduced in amplitude. Given these varying biases we plot P and P − E changes in actual values but apply the simplest bias correction possible to the runoff and soil moisture values and show the modeled changes in terms of percentages of the 20th Century model climatologies. A thorough assessment of the simulation of North American climate in CMIP5 models is conducted in Sheffield at al. (North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I: Evaluation of 20th Century Continental and Regional Climatology, manuscript submit ted to J. Climate, available at http://www.climate.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg=./cpo pa/ mapp/cmip5 publications.html). Sheffield et al. analyze the climatology of precipitation, surface air temperature, low level winds, moisture fluxes, runoff etc. and conclude that the main features of the hydrological cycle, including characteristics of the atmospheric moisture balance and its seasonality, are captured in the CMP5 models subject to biases in total precipitation amounts. We chose to use all available models instead of selecting some and rejecting others based on an assessment of model realism. This is in accord with the suggestions of Mote et al. for CMIP3 (4) but future work needs to revisit this matter for the case of the CMIP5 ensemble.

Seager, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural network ensembles and uncertainty estimation for predictions of inelastic mechanical deformation using a finite element method-neural network approach

The finite element method (FEM) is widely used to simulate a variety of physics phenomena. Approaches that integrate FEM with neural networks (NNs) are typically leveraged as an alternative to conducting expensive FEM simulations in order to reduce the computational cost without significantly sacrificing accuracy. However, these methods can produce biased predictions that deviate from those obtained with FEM, since these hybrid FEM-NN approaches rely on approximations trained using physically relevant quantities. In this work, an uncertainty estimation framework is introduced that leverages ensembles of Bayesian neural networks to produce diverse sets of predictions using a hybrid FEM-NN approach that approximates internal forces on a deforming solid body. The uncertainty estimator developed herein reliably infers upper bounds of bias/variance in the predictions for a wide range of interpolation and extrapolation cases using a three-element FEM-NN model of a bar undergoing plastic deformation. This proposed framework offers a powerful tool for assessing the reliability of physics-based surrogate models by establishing uncertainty estimates for predictions spanning a wide range of possible load cases.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced surrogate model for electron-scale turbulence in tokamak pedestals

We derive an advanced surrogate model for predicting turbulent transport at the edge of tokamaks driven by electron temperature gradient (ETG) modes. Our derivation is based on a recently developed sensitivity-driven sparse grid interpolation approach for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis at scale, which informs the set of parameters that define the surrogate model as a scaling law. Our model reveals that ETG-driven electron heat flux is influenced by the safety factor q, electron beta β e and normalized electron Debye length λ D , in addition to well-established parameters such as the electron temperature and density gradients. To assess the trustworthiness of our model's predictions beyond training, we compute prediction intervals using bootstrapping. The surrogate model's predictive power is tested across a wide range of parameter values, including within-distribution testing parameters (to verify our model) as well as out-of-bounds and out-of-distribution testing (to validate the proposed model). Overall, validation efforts show that our model competes well with, or can even outperform, existing scaling laws in predicting ETG-driven transport.

fusion plasma↗
DOE OSTI2024

A First-Principles Approach to Modeling Surface Site Stabilities on Multimetallic Catalysts

The study of multimetallic alloys and the multitude of possible surface compositions have sparked a tremendous interest in engineering low-cost materials with high activity and selectivity in heterogeneous catalysis. Multimetallic systems provide complementary functionalities and an unprecedented tunability when designing catalyst formulations. However, due to their immense structural and compositional complexity, the investigation and identification of an optimal catalyst is a tedious and time-consuming process, both experimentally and theoretically. Therefore, theoretical design principles are highly desirable to accelerate the screening of catalyst structures across the vast compositional space. In this paper, we introduce a simple and general model for predicting the site stability of multimetallic surfaces and nanoparticles, which is based on physical principles. The model requires only a small set of density functional theory (DFT) calculations of metal atom binding energies on monometallic and dilute alloy surface slabs to optimize the parameters in the simple model. The resulting model allows for the quantification of the stability of any particular atom site in any conceivable chemical environment across a wide range of morphologies, sizes, and arrangements by interpolating the derived parameters from a monometallic system to a completely diluted alloyed system. Herein, we demonstrate the robustness of the model across an extensive data set of transition metal alloy surfaces and 147-atoms cuboctahedral nanoparticles (NPs) composed of IrRhRu and PtPdRu. In conclusion, our approach yields mean absolute errors of ≈0.15 (IrRhRu), 0.20 (PtPdRu), 0.19 (IrRhRu NP), and 0.26 (PtPdRu NP) eV relative to site binding energies calculated using DFT.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast emulation of quantum three-body scattering

Here, we develop a class of emulators for solving quantum three-body scattering problems. They are based on combining the variational method for scattering observables and the recently proposed eigenvector continuation concept. The emulators are first trained by the exact scattering solutions of the governing Hamiltonian at a small number of points in its parameter space, and then employed to make interpolations and extrapolations in that space. Through a schematic nuclear-physics model with finite-range two and three-body interactions, we demonstrate the emulators to be extremely accurate and efficient. The computing time for emulation is on the scale of milliseconds (on a laptop), with relative errors ranging from 10 –13 to 10 –4 depending on the case. The emulators also require little memory. We argue that these emulators can be generalized to even more challenging scattering problems. Furthermore, this general strategy may be applicable for building the same type of emulators in other fields, wherever variational methods can be developed for evaluating physical models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1982

Observation of additional low-degree 5-min modes of solar oscillation

High-order solar oscillations with degrees l=3, 4, and 5 could be detected. The observations were made by measuring the difference between the shifts in the Fe 5,124 spectrum line from light integrated from a central circular portion of the solar disk and from an annular portion exterior to it. The frequencies of the octupole modes agree well with the values obtained from whole-disk measurements at the South Pole. A least-squares fit of the observed frequencies to values interpolated between and extrapolated from the predictions of a sequence of solar models with different chemical compositions selects two models. One, a helium-rich solution, agrees with that of similar analyses of whole-disk data. The extrapolated solution has a relatively deep convection zone, and is thus consistent with analyses of 5-min oscillations of high degree.

Scherrer, P. H.↗