Implementation and Evaluation of Physics‐Driven Dynamic Entrainment‐Mixing Parameterization in a Climate Model and Its Impact on Low‐Cloud Simulation
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
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Implementation and Evaluation of Physics‐Driven Dynamic Entrainment‐Mixing Parameterization in a Climate Model and Its Impact on Low‐Cloud Simulation
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A model for small-impact erosion applied to the lunar surface
Lunar surface erosion model by small projectiles impact for analytic representation of crater shape change as function of time
Soderblom, L. A.↗
Jet ejecta mass upon oblique impact
Theoretical models in the jetting regime for symmetric and asymmetric impact of thin plates predict the mass and velocity of jetted material upon oblique impact. However, experimental constraints on the amount of material which form jets upon oblique impact are not known. A series of preliminary experiments were conducted in which tungsten (W) flyer plates at speeds of 1.5 to 2.0 km/s were obliquely impacted into carbon targets at 30 deg in the regime of jetting, yielding radiation temperatures in the about 3200 K range. Both framing-camera and flash X-ray imaging were conducted. Broad cm-sized craters induced by jet ejecta on 2024 Al witness plates were used to infer jet mass. We infer, from measured witness plate crater volumes, that jet masses in the range of 0.01 to 0.06 g are produced by a 32 mm diameter, 6 mm thick W impactor. This is about one to two orders of magnitude less than those calculated from present theoretical models. In contrast, in refractory material experiments, the mass of gabbro ejecta trapped in styrofoam is 0.52 g, which is similar to that calculated.
Yang, W.↗
Case studies of major DST-6 sounding impacts with the GLAS model
Two case studies of DST-6 sounding impacts are presented. In each of these cases, major improvements to the GLAS model's forecasts of specific synoptic features resulted from including satellite-sounding data in the initial analysis.
Atlas, R.↗
A model study of the impact of emission control strategies on Los Angeles air quality
A generalized cell model is developed for the calculation of city-wide averages of photochemical smog components in Los Angeles. This model takes into account the effects of variations with time and within the city of the source strengths, the wind field, and the mixing depth. The effect of the influx of background pollution from outside the modeled volume is also included. Several control strategies for reducing automobile emissions are then introduced into the model, and their impact on predicted pollutant levels, particularly those of O3, are investigated.
Hameed, S.↗
A nondestructive technique for predicting the strength remaining in filament wound composites subjected to low-level impact
A model for predicting the fracture strength of homogeneous materials is proposed. Impacted FWC samples were evaluated using ultrasonic testing and an X-ray dye penetration method. The ability of the model to measure fracture strength was also examined. The relation between attenuation and velocity measurements is studied. It is observed that the X-ray method is not useful for predicting fracture strength because the dye could not penetrate the matrix. It is noted that fracture strength predictions derived from the fracture mechanical model and the ultrasonic measurements correlate well with actual measured fracture strengths.
Madaras, E. I.↗
Delaminations in composite plates caused by non-penetrating impact
A model is presented for estimating the dimensions of delaminations in continuous fiber reinforced composite plates subjected to non-penetrating (low velocity) impact of a solid object. The model is based on dimensional analysis, and results in two simple, closed form expressions, one providing the delamination length, the other the delamination width. Comparisons of delamination lengths and widths calculated by these expressions with experimental data suggest that the model predicts these dimensions with reasonable accuracy.
Finn, Scott R.↗
Spatial Growth Modeling and High Resolution Remote Sensing Data Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment
The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include business as usual and smart growth scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS lkm land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the Georgia Environmental Protection Division to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta s growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rational decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.
Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
Quantifying the Multi-Objective Cost of Uncertainty
Various real-world applications involve modeling complex systems with immense uncertainty and optimizing multiple objectives based on the uncertain model. Quantifying the impact of the model uncertainty on the given operational objectives is critical for designing optimal experiments that can most effectively reduce the uncertainty that affect the objectives pertinent to the application at hand. In this paper, we propose the concept of mean multi-objective cost of uncertainty (multi-objective MOCU) that can be used for objective-based quantification of uncertainty for complex uncertain systems considering multiple operational objectives. We provide several illustrative examples that demonstrate the concept and strengths of the proposed multi-objective MOCU. Furthermore, we present a real-world example based on the mammalian cell cycle network to demonstrate how the multi-objective MOCU can be used for quantifying the operational impact of model uncertainty when there are multiple, possibly competing, objectives.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Geometric programming design of spacecraft protective structures to defeat earth-orbital space debris
A unique methodology providing global optimization of spacecraft protective structures is presented. The Geometric Programming optimization technique, which has a long history of application to structural design problems, is employed to minimize spacecraft weight of protective structural systems exposed to meteoroid and space debris hypervelocity impacts. The space debris and meteoroid environment are defined followed by the formulation of the general weight objective function. The Wilkinson, Burch, and Nysmith hypervelocity impact predictor models are then used in example cases to display Geometric Programming capabilities. Results show that global nonlinear design optimization can be performed for hypervelocity impact models that follow the Geometric Programming form.
Mog, Robert A.↗
The Ability of NASA's Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) 3 to Replicate in Situ Impact Data
Meteoroid environment models must describe the mass, directionality, velocity, and density distributions of meteoroids in order to correctly predict the rate at which meteoroids impact spacecraft. We present an updated version of NASA's Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) that better captures the correlation between directionality and velocity and incorporates a bulk density distribution. We compare the resulting model with the rate of large particle impacts seen on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) and the Pegasus I and II satellites. Impact crater counts are modeled using two different ballistic limit equations (BLEs), one of which assumes a constant depth-to-diameter ratio and one of which yields depth-to-diameter ratios that depend on meteoroid speed and density. MEM agrees with the in situ crater record to within the range of values associated with different BLEs, but our preliminary analysis indicates that the level of agreement could be improved by reducing the strength of the toroidal meteoroid population and increasing the strength of the helion/antihelion and apex populations.
Moorhead, Althea↗
High-Resolution Meteorology with Climate Change Impacts from Global Climate Model Data Using Generative Machine Learning
As renewable energy generation increases, the impacts of weather and climate on energy generation and demand become critical to the reliability of the energy system. However, these impacts are often overlooked. Global climate models (GCMs) can be used to understand possible changes to our climate, but their coarse resolution makes them difficult to use in energy system modelling. Here we present open-source generative machine learning methods that produce meteorological data at a nominal spatial resolution of 4 km at an hourly frequency based on inputs from 100 km daily-average GCM data. These methods run 40 times faster than traditional downscaling methods and produce data that have high-resolution spatial and temporal attributes similar to historical datasets. We demonstrate that these methods can be used to downscale projected changes in wind, solar and temperature variables across multiple GCMs including projections for more frequent low-wind and high-temperature events in the Eastern United States.
climate change↗
The equivalent depth of burst for impact cratering
The concept of modeling an impact cratering event with an explosive event with the explosive buried at some equivalent depth of burst (d.o.b.) is discussed. Various and different ways to define this equivalent d.o.b. are identified. Recent experimental results for a dense quartz sand are used to determine the equivalent d.o.b. for various conditions of charge type, event size, and impact conditions. The results show a decrease in equivalent d.o.b. with increasing energy for fixed impact velocity and a decrease in equivalent d.o.b. with increasing velocity for fixed energy. The values for an iron projectile are on the order of 2-3 projectile radii for energy equal to one ton of TNT, decreasing to about 1.5 radii at a megaton of TNT. The dependence on projectile and target mass density matches that included in common jet-penetration formulas for projectile densities greater than target densities and for the higher energies.
Holsapple, K. A.↗
Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) 3: NASA’s Newest Meteoroid Model
Meteoroid impacts threaten spacecraft and astronauts at all locations within the Solar System. At certain altitudes in low-Earth orbit, orbital debris dominates the risk, but meteoroids are more significant within 250 km of the Earth’s surface and above 4000 km [1]. In interplanetary space, orbital debris is nonexistent and meteoroids constitute the entire population of potentially dangerous impactors. The NASA Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) produces the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) to support meteoroid impact risk assessments [2]; MEM is a stand-alone piece of software that describes the flux, speed, directionality, and bulk density of meteoroids striking a spacecraft on a user-supplied trajectory. The MEO released version 3 of MEM in 2019 [3]. This proceeding describes the orbital populations that form the core of MEM, highlights key differences between MEM 3 and its predecessors, discusses the implications of these changes for spacecraft, summarizes our validation against meteor and in-situ data, and delineates the model’s limitations.
Moorhead, Althea V.↗
The effect of electron temperature and impact ionization on Martian return AOTV flowfields
Various electron impact ionization models in conjunction with a quasi-equilibrium electron temperature model have been investigated and applied to the stagnation region of a hypothetical 2.3 m nose radius Martian return AOTV. For the conditions considered, U = 12 km/sec at 80 km, both multi-temperature inviscid and viscous results indicate that a two-step ionization impact model predicts ionization distances in agreement with experimental data, that nonequilibrium chemistry and radiation effects are important throughout the stagnation zone, and that the quasi-equilibrium electron temperature model is reasonable. Also, using a non-grey emission-absorption radiation step model, it is shown that nonequilibrium causes a reduction in radiative heating from that predicted for equilibrium conditions and that compared to an adiabatic wall a cool wall (1650 deg K) results in a 28 to 45 percent reduction in radiative heating due to absorption near the wall.
Carlson, Leland A.↗
The Impact of Microphysics and Model Resolution on Precipitation Associated with Typhoon Morakot 2009
In recent years, the heavy rainfall that was associated with severe weather events (e.g., typhoons, local heavy precipitation events) has caused significant damages in the economy and loss of human life throughout Taiwan. Especially, the extreme heavy rainfall (over 2500 mm over 24 hours) associated with Typhoon Morakot 2009 caused more than 600 human beings lost and more than $100 million US dollar damage. In this paper, we are using WRF to simulate the precipitation processes associated Typhoon Morakot 2009. The preliminary results indicated that the wrf model with using 2 km grid size and with utilizing the 310E scheme (cloud ice, snow and hail) can simulate more than 2500 mm rainfall over 24 hour integration. In this talk, we will evaluate the performance of the microphysical schemes for the Typhoon Morakot case. In addition, we will examine the impact of model resolution (in both horizontal and vertical) on the Typhoon Morakot case.
Lin, Pay-Liam↗
Analyzing Tradeoffs Associated with the Manufacture of Refined Fuels by Comparing Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) Emissions Model Results with Carbon Impacts
A first-of-its kind, publicly-available model for estimating emissions of volatile organic compounds from operations along the supply chain of liquid fuels and refinery products is presented and demonstrated. This standardized model permits comprehensive, reproducible, and comparable evaluation of the supply chain/life cycle VOC emissions of liquid fuels and refinery products.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗