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At least 487 records · Page 27

An Experimental Study of Small-Scale Variability of Raindrop Size Distribution

An experimental study of small-scale variability of raindrop size distributions (DSDs) has been carried out at Wallops Island, Virginia. Three Joss-Waldvogel disdrometers were operated at a distance of 0.65, 1.05, and 1.70 km in a nearly straight line. The main purpose of the study was to examine the variability of DSDs and its integral parameters of liquid water content, rainfall, and reflectivity within a 2-km array: a typical size of Cartesian radar pixel. The composite DSD of rain events showed very good agreement among the disdrometers except where there were noticeable differences in midsize and large drops in a few events. For consideration of partial beam filling where the radar pixel was not completely covered by rain, a single disdrometer reported just over 10% more rainy minutes than the rainy minutes when all three disdrometers reported rainfall. Similarly two out of three disdrometers reported5%more rainy minutes than when all three were reporting rainfall. These percentages were based on a 1-min average, and were less for longer averaging periods. Considering only the minutes when all three disdrometers were reporting rainfall, just over one quarter of the observations showed an increase in the difference in rainfall with distance. This finding was based on a 15-min average and was even less for shorter averaging periods. The probability and cumulative distributions of a gamma-fitted DSD and integral rain parameters between the three disdrometers had a very good agreement and no major variability. This was mainly due to the high percentage of light stratiform rain and to the number of storms that traveled along the track of the disdrometers. At a fixed time step, however, both DSDs and integral rain parameters showed substantial variability. The standard deviation (SD) of rain rate was near 3 mm/h, while the SD of reflectivity exceeded 3 dBZ at the longest separation distance. These standard deviations were at 6-min average and were higher at shorter averaging periods. The correlations decreased with increasing separation distance. For rain rate, the correlations were higher than previous gauge-based studies. This was attributed to the differences in data processing and the difference in rainfall characteristics in different climate regions. It was also considered that the gauge sampling errors could be a factor. In this regard, gauge measurements were simulated employing existing disdrometer dataset. While a difference was noticed in cumulative distribution of rain occurrence between the simulated gauge and disdrometer observations, the correlations in simulated gauge measurements did not differ from the disdrometer measurements.

Tokay, Ali↗

Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-resolution Cloud Observations : Sensitivity Tests and Results - Part II

Part I presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of GCM sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution MODIS cloud data, thereby permitting large-scale model parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation. This part performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed significantly reduce mean and standard deviation biases with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud top pressure, and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Ramman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the OMI instrument. Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows finite jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast where the background state has a clear swath. This paper also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in the cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification due to Riishojgaard (1998) provides some help in this respect, by better honoring inversion structures in the background state.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference↗

Stratospheric Horizontal Wavenumber Spectra of Winds, Potential Temperature, and Atmospheric Tracers Observed by High-Altitude Aircraft

Horizontal wavenumber power spectra of vertical and horizontal wind velocities, potential temperatures, and ozone and N(2)O mixing ratios, as measured in the mid-stratosphere during 73 ER-2 flights (altitude approx. 20km) are presented. The velocity and potential temperature spectra in the 100 to 1-km wavelength range deviate significantly from the uniform -5/3 power law expected for the inverse energy-cascade regime of two-dimensional turbulence and also for inertial-range, three-dimensional turbulence. Instead, steeper spectra approximately consistent with a -3 power law are observed at horizontal scales smaller than 3 km for all velocity components as well as potential temperature. Shallower spectra are observed at scales longer than 6 km. For horizontal velocity and potential temperature the spectral indices at longer scales are between -1.5 and -2.0. For vertical velocity the spectrum at longer scales become flat. It is argued that the observed velocity and potential temperature spectra are consistent with gravity waves. At smaller scales, the shapes are also superficially consistent with a Lumley-Shur-Weinstock buoyant subrange of turbulence and/or nonlinear gravity waves. Contemporaneous spectra of ozone and N(sub 2)O mixing ratio in the 100 to 1-km wavelength range do conform to an approximately uniform -5/3 power law. It is argued that this may reflect interactions between gravity wave air-parcel displacements and laminar or filamentary structures in the trace gas mixing ratio field produced by enstropy-cascading two-dimensional turbulence.

TRACE GAS MIXING RATIO FIELDS↗

Predictive Modeling for Differential Diagnosis and Mortality Risk Assessment

The prevalence of electronic health record (EHR) systems has brought prodigious biomedical informatics opportunity. Automated machine learning methods can effectively utilize such data and have become common tools for healthcare predictive modeling. Researches in medical informatics have explored the potential of deep learning and classical models in emergent care scenarios. In particular, predicting differential diagnoses for admissions have proven useful in decreasing unnecessary lab tests and improving inpatient triage decision-making. Moreover, identification of high-risk patients for in-hospital mortality is vitally important to maximize allocation of medical resources.The Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database, containing de-identified critical care inpatient was used in our study. This data set captures hospital patient laboratory measurements, pharmacologic prescriptions, diagnostic data and procedure event recordings. When considering adult patients and discounting admissions with ICU length of stay less than 24 hours, there were 37,787 unique admissions and 30,414 total patients. We examined the top 25 most prevalent ICD-9 group-level disease specificities in MIMIC-III using a multi-label classification model. In-hospital mortality was modeled as binary classification with 4,155 (13%) adult patients that expired, of which 3,138 (75.5%) were in the ICU setting. The metrics AUC, F1 score, sensitivity and specificity values calculated for each disease label measured prediction performance.The usage of ICD-9 group codes reduced feature dimension from 14,567 to 942 and greatly improved distribution of patient diagnostic categories. Disease temporal patterns were captured by considering the most frequently sampled 6 vital signs and 13 laboratory values. Missing data were imputed at each time-stamp. Time-series raw hourly average values were converted into 5 summary features (mean, standard deviation, number of observations, min & max values). Patient demographic variables such as age, gender, marital status and ethnicity were also factored into the modeling. Choi et al showed that contextual embedding of medical data, diagnostic and procedural codes alone can predict future diagnoses with sensitivity as high as 0.79. We utilized an embedding technique called word2vec which allowed sparse representations of medical history to be transformed into dense word vectors. The mappings captured contextual information by treating each admission as a sentence and learning the most likely neighboring words in a sliding window fashion. Binary and multi-label classification was achieved via collapse models, which do not consider temporal information, as well as recurrent neural networks with regularization, Softmax output layer activation together with categorical cross-entropy as the loss function.

US Army collaboration↗

Rotational-vibrational coupling in the theory of electron-molecule scattering

The adiabatic-nuclei approximation of vibrational-rotational excitation of homonuclear diatomic molecules can be simply augmented to describe the vibrational-rotational coupling by including the dependence of the vibrational wave function on j. Appropriate formulas are given, and the theory, is applied to e-H2 excitation, whereby it is shown that deviations from the simple Born-Oppenheimer approximation measured by Wong and Schultz can be explained. More important, it can be seen that the inclusion of the j-dependent centrifugal term is essential for transitions involving high-rotational quantum numbers.

Temkin, A.↗

The effect of delta ray production on Cerenkov counter response

Light generated by delta rays in Cerenkov counters contributes to the mean counter signal in addition to producing fluctuations in this signal. The dependence of this contribution on the energy of the primary particle deviates significantly from the Cerenkov formula. When using such a counter to measure the index of a typical cosmic ray power law spectrum, neglect of this effect can yield a value for the spectral index which is too high by 0.3. This paper presents calculations of this delta ray contribution as a function of the energy of the primary particle. It points out the need for accurate and independent determination of such experimental parameters as counter resolution (intrinsic and statistical), linearity, and normalization.

Evenson, P.↗

High-energy X-ray observations of the southern sky

Results are reported for high-energy (above 17 keV) balloon-borne X-ray observations in the southern sky which detected at least five sources that produced X-ray counts above background with a significance of four or more standard deviations. The probable sources observed include GX 301-2 (3U 1223-62), GX 1+4 (3U 1728-24), GX 5-1 (3U 1758-25), GX 3+1 (3U 1744-26), and GX 331-1. It is noted that some or all of the flux attributed to GX 5-1 might be due to 3U 1820-30 and that GX 3+1 was not completely resolved from GX 1+4. Energy spectra are given for each source along with upper limits to periodic fluctuations of the detected fluxes in the frequency range from 0.01 to 100 Hz. A possible observation of a flux from the eclipsing binary source 3U 1700-37 is discussed.

Ricker, G. R.↗

Confirmation of dust clusters in the coma of Comet Halley

Measurements from the Ducma dust counter and mass analyzer on the Vega spacecraft are compared with those from the SP-1 sensor on the same spacecraft. It is shown that the sequence of pulses recorded by the SP-1 instruments show deviations from a random distribution. Some of the nonrandom sequences observed by SP-1 are in the same time intervals as the clusters observed by the Ducma instrument. The results support the analysis of Ducma data which showed highly structured variations of dust intensity through the coma and large fluxes of low mass particles extending to great distances beyond the coma (Simpson et al., 1986).

Simpson, J. A.↗

Analysis of wind perturbation activity for the NSTS launches

A method for statistical analysis of wind perturbation activity is proposed for application in NSTS prelaunch assessment of the wind environment. Methods for comparing day-of-launch wind perturbation standard deviations with historical data at the launch site are described. A statistical model based on the Gumbel extreme value distribution is developed for the largest vector and component perturbations in a wind profile as a function of high-pass filter cutoff wavelength. Application of the model is proposed for assessing extreme perturbations within prelaunch sequential Jimsphere wind profiles.

Adelfang, Stanley I.↗

Study of the oxygen transport through Ag (110), Ag (poly), and Ag 2.0 Zr

The transport of oxygen through high-purity membranes of Ag (110), Ag (poly), Ag (nano), and Ag 2.0 Zr has been studied by an ultrahigh vacuum permeation method over the temperature range of 400-800 C. The data show that there are substantial deviations from ordinary diffusion-controlled transport. A surface limitation has been confirmed by glow-discharge studies where the upstream O2 supply has been partially converted to atoms, which, for the same temperature and pressure, gave rise to over an order of magnitude increase in transport flux. Further, the addition of 2.0 wt percent Zr to the Ag has provided increased dissociative adsorption rates, which, in turn, increased the transport flux by a factor of 2. It was also observed that below a temperature of 630 C, the diffusivity exhibits an increase in activation energy of over 4 kcal/mol, which has been attributed to trapping of the atomic oxygen and/or kinetic barriers at the surface and subsurface of the vacuum interface. Above 630 C, the activation barrier decreases to the accepted value of about 11 kcal/mol for Ag (poly), consistent with zero concentration at the vacuum interface.

Outlaw, R. A.↗

Efficient Probabilistic Diagnostics for Electrical Power Systems

We consider in this work the probabilistic approach to model-based diagnosis when applied to electrical power systems (EPSs). Our probabilistic approach is formally well-founded, as it based on Bayesian networks and arithmetic circuits. We investigate the diagnostic task known as fault isolation, and pay special attention to meeting two of the main challenges . model development and real-time reasoning . often associated with real-world application of model-based diagnosis technologies. To address the challenge of model development, we develop a systematic approach to representing electrical power systems as Bayesian networks, supported by an easy-to-use speci.cation language. To address the real-time reasoning challenge, we compile Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits. Arithmetic circuit evaluation supports real-time diagnosis by being predictable and fast. In essence, we introduce a high-level EPS speci.cation language from which Bayesian networks that can diagnose multiple simultaneous failures are auto-generated, and we illustrate the feasibility of using arithmetic circuits, compiled from Bayesian networks, for real-time diagnosis on real-world EPSs of interest to NASA. The experimental system is a real-world EPS, namely the Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Testbed (ADAPT) located at the NASA Ames Research Center. In experiments with the ADAPT Bayesian network, which currently contains 503 discrete nodes and 579 edges, we .nd high diagnostic accuracy in scenarios where one to three faults, both in components and sensors, were inserted. The time taken to compute the most probable explanation using arithmetic circuits has a small mean of 0.2625 milliseconds and standard deviation of 0.2028 milliseconds. In experiments with data from ADAPT we also show that arithmetic circuit evaluation substantially outperforms joint tree propagation and variable elimination, two alternative algorithms for diagnosis using Bayesian network inference.

Mengshoel, Ole J.↗

Orion Exploration Flight Test-1 Post-Flight Navigation Performance Assessment Relative to the Best Estimated Trajectory

This paper details the post-flight navigation performance assessment of the Orion Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1). Results of each flight phase are presented: Ground Align, Ascent, Orbit, and Entry Descent and Landing. This study examines the on-board Kalman Filter uncertainty along with state deviations relative to the Best Estimated Trajectory (BET). Overall the results show that the Orion Navigation System performed as well or better than expected. Specifically, the Global Positioning System (GPS) measurement availability was significantly better than anticipated at high altitudes. In addition, attitude estimation via processing GPS measurements along with Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) data performed very well and maintained good attitude throughout the mission.

Gay, Robert S.↗

Searching for Decaying Dark Matter in Deep XMM-Newton Observation of the Draco Dwarf Spheroidal

We present results of a search for the 3.5 keV emission line in our recent very long (approx. 1.4 Ms) XMM-Newton observation of the Draco dwarf spheroidal galaxy. The astrophysical X-ray emission from such dark matter-dominated galaxies is faint, thus they provide a test for the dark matter origin of the 3.5 keV line previously detected in other massive, but X-ray bright objects, such as galaxies and galaxy clusters. We do not detect a statistically significant emission line from Draco; this constrains the lifetime of a decaying dark matter particle to tau >(7-9) × 10(exp 27) s at 95% CL (combining all three XMM-Newton cameras; the interval corresponds to the uncertainty of the dark matter column density in the direction of Draco). The PN camera, which has the highest sensitivity of the three, does show a positive spectral residual (above the carefully modeled continuum) at E = 3.54 +/- 0.06 keV with a 2.3(sigma) significance. The two MOS cameras show less-significant or no positive deviations, consistently within 1(sigma) with PN. Our Draco limit on tau is consistent with previous detections in the stacked galaxy clusters, M31 and the Galactic Centre within their 1 − 2(sigma) uncertainties, but is inconsistent with the high signal from the core of the Perseus cluster (which has itself been inconsistent with the rest of the detections). We conclude that this Draco observation does not exclude the dark matter interpretation of the 3.5 keV line in those objects.

dark matter↗

Trajectory Dispersion Control for the Cassini Grand Finale Mission

The Cassini Grand Finale Mission, which consists of 22 ballistic orbits, will begin on April 22, 2017 after the last targeted Titan flyby. It will end on September 15, 2017 when the spacecraft dives into Saturn's atmosphere and be permanently captured. High volumes of unique science data from various onboard instruments are expected from the mission. To ensure its success and facilitate science planning, the trajectory dispersion needs to be controlled below 250 km (root-mean-square spatial deviation at the 68th percentile level) for a few segments of trajectory in the mission. This paper reports the formulation and solution of this dispersion control problem. We consider various sources of uncertainties including flyby error, orbit determination error, maneuver execution error, thruster firing control error, and uncertainty in Saturn's atmospheric model. A non-linear Monte Carlo Trajectory Dispersion tool is developed and employed for the analysis. It is found that a total of three Orbit Trim Maneuvers with a 99% (Delta)V usage of less than 2 m/s will adequately control the trajectory.

orbit determination↗

Rocket engine vibration accurately measured by photography

High speed instrumentation camera focused on a partially masked light bulb which is securely mounted to the test fixture permits measurement of engine performance parameters when usual electronic vibration instrumentation is unavailable. Vibration is recorded as a light trace deviating from the light rays photographed in the static hardware condition.

Craig, K. A.↗

The southern oscillation and long-range forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the Darwin pressure anomalies are examined for the 81-year period 1901-81. It is found that the tendency of the Darwin pressure anomaly before the monsoon season is a good indicator of the monsoon rainfall anomaly. During the 81-year period, there were only two instances (1901, 1941) when a negative tendency of winter (December, January, February) to spring (March, April, May) Darwin pressure anomaly was followed by a monsoon rainfall anomaly of less than minus one standard deviation; and only three instances (1916, 1933, 1961) when a positive tendency was followed by a rainfall anomaly of more than one standard deviation. Therefore, if the Darwin pressure anomaly during March, April and May is below normal, and if the Darwin seasonal pressure anomaly has been falling, a non-occurrence of drought over India can be predicted with a very high degree of confidence. Similarly, above normal Darwin pressure during March, April and May, and increasing seasonal pressure anomaly is a good indicator of the non-occurrence of very heavy rain over India.

Shukla, J.↗

Trends in the Southern Hemisphere

The station data of monthly mean sea level pressure, surface air temperature as well as monthly mean upper air rawinsonde observations were used to study the trends in the southern winter (June, July and August) and summer (December, January and February). This study covers the period 1951 to 1981. Most of the surface data have continuous 31 year records, however, for some high latitude stations, both surface and upper air records started in 1957 or even later. The normalized anomaly for a given variable Z is defined as the departure from the 1951 to 1981 grand mean divided by the standard deviation during the same period. To eliminate the large fluctuations in the data, the 1-3-1 smoothing was applied to the time series of normalized anomalies. The trends of monthly mean temperatures and height from the surface to 200 mb level is documented.

Mo, K. C.↗

On Orbital Elements of Extrasolar Planetary Candidates and Spectroscopic Binaries

We estimate probability densities of orbital elements, periods, and eccentricities, for the population of extrasolar planetary candidates (EPC) and, separately, for the population of spectroscopic binaries (SB) with solar-type primaries. We construct empirical cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) in order to infer probability distribution functions (PDFs) for orbital periods and eccentricities. We also derive a joint probability density for period-eccentricity pairs in each population. Comparison of respective distributions reveals that in all cases EPC and SB populations are, in the context of orbital elements, indistinguishable from each other to a high degree of statistical significance. Probability densities of orbital periods in both populations have P(exp -1) functional form, whereas the PDFs of eccentricities can he best characterized as a Gaussian with a mean of about 0.35 and standard deviation of about 0.2 turning into a flat distribution at small values of eccentricity. These remarkable similarities between EPC and SB must be taken into account by theories aimed at explaining the origin of extrasolar planetary candidates, and constitute an important clue us to their ultimate nature.

Stepinski, T. F.↗