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At least 487 records · Page 27

Sensitivity-Informed Bayesian Inference for Home PLC Network Models with Unknown Parameters

Bayesian inference is used to calibrate a bottom-up home PLC network model with unknown loads and wires at frequencies up to 30 MHz. A network topology with over 50 parameters is calibrated using global sensitivity analysis and transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC). The sensitivity-informed Bayesian inference computes Sobol indices for each network parameter and applies TMCMC to calibrate the most sensitive parameters for a given network topology. A greedy random search with TMCMC is used to refine the discrete random variables of the network. This results in a model that can accurately compute the transfer function despite noisy training data and a high dimensional parameter space. The model is able to infer some parameters of the network used to produce the training data, and accurately computes the transfer function under extrapolative scenarios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Optimality of Gradient-MUSIC for Spectral Estimation

We introduce the Gradient-MUSIC algorithm for estimating the unknown frequencies and amplitudes of a nonharmonic signal from noisy time samples. While the classical MUSIC algorithm performs a computationally expensive search over a fine grid, Gradient-MUSIC is significantly more efficient and eliminates the need for discretization over a fine grid by using optimization techniques. It coarsely scans the 1D landscape to find initialization simultaneously for all frequencies followed by parallelizable local refinement via gradient descent. We also analyze its performance when the noise level is sufficiently small and the signal frequencies are separated by at least 8π/m, where π/m is the standard resolution of this problem. Even though the 1D landscape is nonconvex, we prove a global convergence result for Gradient-MUSIC: coarse scanning provably finds suitable initialization and gradient descent converges at a linear rate. In addition to convergence results, we also upper bound the error between the true signal frequencies and amplitudes with those found by Gradient-MUSIC. For example, if the noise has $\ell^\infty$ norm at most ϵ, then the frequencies and amplitudes are recovered up to error at most Cϵ/m and Cϵ respectively, which are minimax optimal in m and ϵ. Our theory can also handle stochastic noise with performance guarantees under nonstationary independent Gaussian noise. Our main approach is a comprehensive geometric analysis of the landscape, a perspective that has not been explored before.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Precise and Efficient Static Array Bound Checking for Large Embedded C Programs

In this paper we describe the design and implementation of a static array-bound checker for a family of embedded programs: the flight control software of recent Mars missions. These codes are large (up to 250 KLOC), pointer intensive, heavily multithreaded and written in an object-oriented style, which makes their analysis very challenging. We designed a tool called C Global Surveyor (CGS) that can analyze the largest code in a couple of hours with a precision of 80%. The scalability and precision of the analyzer are achieved by using an incremental framework in which a pointer analysis and a numerical analysis of array indices mutually refine each other. CGS has been designed so that it can distribute the analysis over several processors in a cluster of machines. To the best of our knowledge this is the first distributed implementation of static analysis algorithms. Throughout the paper we will discuss the scalability setbacks that we encountered during the construction of the tool and their impact on the initial design decisions.

Venet, Arnaud↗

Combined Global Navigation Satellite Systems in the Space Service Volume

Besides providing position, velocity, and timing (PVT) for terrestrial users, the Global Positioning System (GPS) is also being used to provide PVT information for earth orbiting satellites. In 2006, F. H. Bauer, et. al., defined the Space Service Volume in the paper GPS in the Space Service Volume , presented at ION s 19th international Technical Meeting of the Satellite Division, and looked at GPS coverage for orbiting satellites. With GLONASS already operational, and the first satellites of the Galileo and Beidou/COMPASS constellations already in orbit, it is time to look at the use of the new Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) coming into service to provide PVT information for earth orbiting satellites. This presentation extends GPS in the Space Service Volume by examining the coverage capability of combinations of the new constellations with GPS GPS was first explored as a system for refining the position, velocity, and timing of other spacecraft equipped with GPS receivers in the early eighties. Because of this, a new GPS utility developed beyond the original purpose of providing position, velocity, and timing services for land, maritime, and aerial applications. GPS signals are now received and processed by spacecraft both above and below the GPS constellation, including signals that spill over the limb of the earth. Support of GPS space applications is now part of the system plan for GPS, and support of the Space Service Volume by other GNSS providers has been proposed to the UN International Committee on GNSS (ICG). GPS has been demonstrated to provide decimeter level position accuracy in real-time for satellites in low Earth orbit (centimeter level in non-real-time applications). GPS has been proven useful for satellites in geosynchronous orbit, and also for satellites in highly elliptical orbits. Depending on how many satellites are in view, one can keep time locked to the GNSS standard, and through that to Universal Time as long as at least one satellite is in view (the longest duration with no satellites in view is important in determining the maximum clock drift from GNSS time). Instantaneous position requires four satellites in view, but because orbital motion is predictable, it is possible to build up knowledge of the orbital position gradually through time without a need for constant four satellite coverage. However, it is desirable to have four satellite coverage when performing satellite maneuvers, since there can be significant changes in velocity, leading to large changes in orbit parameter, causing substantial divergence in position over time. The Space Service Volume has been defined as the volume between three thousand km altitude and geosynchronous altitude, and can be divided into medium orbit services between three thousand km altitude and eight thousand km altitude, and high orbit services above eight thousand km. The Terrestrial Service Volume includes the Earth s surface, the atmosphere, and space below the altitude of three thousand km. The Terrestrial Service Volume is the volume within which the GNSS systems will have very similar performance to the Earth surface, and satellites need only use the signals specified to provide terrestrial performance. Above three thousand km the use of signals passing by the Earth s limb becomes important, so it is desirable to have additional information on signal strength, phase delay, and group delay covering wider beam angles than are needed for terrestrial service (and which can be obtained by monitoring GNSS signals from the Earth s surface). This presentation will look at each of the new GNSS constellations in combination with GPS (GLONASS with GPS, Galileo with GPS, Beidou/COMPASS with GPS), and also at the combination of all four GNSS systems. The presentation will largely follow the format of GPS in the Space Service Volume , presenting data on the availability of one, two, three, or four of the various combinations of GNSS constellation satelles at approximately two thousand grid points evenly spaced and fixed in longitude and latitude, the duration of the longest single-fold outages (intervals when no satellites are available), and the duration of the longest four-fold outages (intervals when fewer than four satellites are available) at several altitudes. Following the original paper, we will use the altitudes of three hundred km (typical LEO satellite, and within the Terrestrial Service Volume), at three thousand km (border between Terrestrial Service Volume and Space Service Volume), at eight thousand km (the border between medium and high orbit service within the Space Service Volume), at fifteen thousand km (just below the GNSS constellations), at twenty five thousand km (just above the GNSS constellations), at thirty six thousand, five hundred km (limit of Space Service Volume definition, geosynchronous altitude), and at seventy thousand km (to show the potential usefulness of GNSS beyond geosynchronous altitude).

Force, Dale A.↗

Atlas of putative minima and low-lying energy networks of water clusters n = 3 - 25

We report a database consisting of the putative minima and ~3.2 million local minima lying within 5 kcal/mol from the putative minima for water clusters of sizes n = 3 – 25 using an improved version of the Monte Carlo Temperature Basin Paving (MCTBP) global optimization procedure in conjunction with the ab-initio based, flexible, polarizable Thole-Type Model (TTM2.1-F, version 2.1) interaction potential for water. Several of the low-lying structures, as well as lowlying penta-coordinated water networks obtained with the TTM2.1-F potential, were further refined at the Møller-Plesset second order perturbation MP2/aug-cc-pVTZ level of theory. In total, we have identified 3,138,303 networks corresponding to local minima of the clusters n = 3 – 25, whose Cartesian coordinates and relative energies can be obtained from the webpage https://sites.uw.edu/wdbase/. Networks containing penta-coordinated water molecules start to appear at n = 11 and, quite surprisingly, are energetically close (within 1 – 3 kcal/mol) to the putative minima, a fact that has been confirmed from the MP2 calculations. This large database of water cluster minima spanning quite dissimilar hydrogen bonding networks is expected to influence the development and assessment of the accuracy of interaction potentials for water as well as lower scaling electronic structure methods (such as different density functionals). Furthermore, it can also be used in conjunction with data science approaches (including but no limited to neural networks, machine and deep learning) to understand the properties of water, nature’s most important substance.

Rakshit, Avijit↗

Improved Neutron Lifetime Measurement with UCN$\tau$

In this work, we report an improved measurement of the free neutron lifetime $\tau_n$ using the UCN$\tau$ apparatus at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center. We count a total of approximately 38×10 6 surviving ultracold neutrons (UCNs) after storing in UCN$\tau$’s magnetogravitational trap over two data acquisition campaigns in 2017 and 2018. We extract $\tau$ n from three blinded, independent analyses by both pairing long and short storage time runs to find a set of replicate $\tau$ n measurements and by performing a global likelihood fit to all data while self-consistently incorporating the β-decay lifetime. Both techniques achieve consistent results and find a value $\tau$ n =877.75±0.28 stat +0.22/–0.16 syst s. With this sensitivity, neutron lifetime experiments now directly address the impact of recent refinements in our understanding of the standard model for neutron decay.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Giovanni: The Bridge between Data and Science

NASA Giovanni (Goddard Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure) is a web-based remote sensing and model data visualization and analysis system developed by the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). This web-based tool facilitates data discovery, exploration and analysis of large amount of global and regional data sets, covering atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric chemistry, hydrology, oceanographic, and land surface. Data analysis functions include Lat-Lon map, time series, scatter plot, correlation map, difference, cross-section, vertical profile, and animation etc. Visualization options enable comparisons of multiple variables and easier refinement. Recently, new features have been developed, such as interactive scatter plots and maps. The performance is also being improved, in some cases by an order of magnitude for certain analysis functions with optimized software. We are working toward merging current Giovanni portals into a single omnibus portal with all variables in one (virtual) location to help users find a variable easily and enhance the intercomparison capability

Shen, Suhung↗

Toward Consistent Long-term Records of Cloud Fraction from MODIS and VIIRS for CERES

In order to produce a long-term and stable climate record of Earth’s energy budget for NASA’s Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project, a consistent cloud fraction record across different measurement platforms­­ is a crucial first step. As Aqua satellite is approaching the end of its operational lifetime, NOAA-20 VIIRS observations on the JPSS-2 spacecraft will be used for cloud detection to continue the long-term Earth energy budget record. Two steps are designed to achieve this goal. The first step is a quick approach that revises the CERES NOAA-20 VIIRS Edition 1 A (CV Ed1A) cloud mask to incorporate Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) water vapor and CO_2 channels into the VIIRS cloud mask (CV Ed1B) to produce a consistent cloud fraction with CERES MODIS Edition 4 (CM Ed4) to avoid potential discontinuity when Aqua orbit drifts beyond tolerance before the next Edition is completed. The second step is to develop, as part of CERES next edition (Ed5), a unified MODIS and VIIRS cloud mask using common channels to produce consistent cloud products with improved radiative transfer models, refined clear sky predictions, new GMAO reanalysis products, and the latest radiance collections of MODIS and VIIRS data. This poster will present cloud fraction comparison between CV Ed1B and CM Ed4, as well as the preliminary results of ongoing Ed5 including pixel level cloud mask results, monthly global cloud fraction differences between MODIS and VIIRS (consistency), and initial validation using CALIPSO data (accuracy).

CERES↗

Force Field X: A computational microscope to study genetic variation and organic crystals using theory and experiment

Force Field X (FFX) is an open-source software package for atomic resolution modeling of genetic variants and organic crystals that leverages advanced potential energy functions and experimental data. FFX currently consists of nine modular packages with novel algorithms that include global optimization via a many-body expansion, acid–base chemistry using polarizable constant-pH molecular dynamics, estimation of free energy differences, generalized Kirkwood implicit solvent models, and many more. Applications of FFX focus on the use and development of a crystal structure prediction pipeline, biomolecular structure refinement against experimental datasets, and estimation of the thermodynamic effects of genetic variants on both proteins and nucleic acids. The use of Parallel Java and OpenMM combines to offer shared memory, message passing, and graphics processing unit parallelization for high performance simulations. Overall, the FFX platform serves as a computational microscope to study systems ranging from organic crystals to solvated biomolecular systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Seismic Tomographic Modeling of the Crust and Upper Mantle beneath Israel and the Middle East: Improved Resolution through Optimized Model Parameterization

Accurate regional seismic travel-time (RSTT) predictions rely on regional phases (e.g., Pg, Lg, Pn, Sn ) to account for 3D effects in the crust and upper mantle that are not captured by 1D models traditionally used for real-time location. The RSTT prediction model accounts for regional-scale crust and upper mantle structure globally by incorporating regional seismic phases into its travel-time calculations. Previous versions of the RSTT model have used a constant grid cell size of 1°. To improve the tomographic accuracy of recovering velocity structure at regional scales, we, in this study, perform data-driven grid refinement on the RSTT model down to a 0.125° grid (~14 km) in pursuit of two main goals: (1) to test the limits of RSTT capability and accuracy of determined velocity structure through variable grid refinement and (2) to image smaller structures in Israel and the Middle East and illuminate upper mantle dynamics operating in this complex tectonic area. We investigate the effects of model parameterization as grid cell size decreases and the trade-offs between recovered velocity structures. Our final dataset includes 4751 events and 499 stations that recorded 79,344 Pn and 7489 Pg . The variable grid refinement method allows recovery of finer-scale velocity structures and reduces travel-time residuals in areas with the highest data coverage. At smaller grid cell sizes, longer paths need to be upweighted to stabilize the inversion. Results illuminate tectonic features undefined in coarser grid-size models; in particular, we observe mantle perturbations related to the subduction zone around the Cyprian arc and crustal anomalies near the Dead Sea fault and throughout the Anatolian plate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Carbon neutrality in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur: Insights from stakeholder-driven integrated assessment modeling

Several cities in Malaysia have established plans to reduce their CO2 emissions, in addition to Malaysia submitting a Nationally Determined Contribution to reduce its carbon intensity (against GDP) by 45% in 2030 compared to 2005. Meeting these emissions reduction goals will require a joint effort between governments, industries, and corporations at different scales and across sectors. In collaboration with national and sub-national stakeholders, we developed and used a global integrated assessment model to explore emissions mitigation pathways in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur. Guided by current climate action plans, we created a suite of scenarios to reflect uncertainties in policy ambition, level of adoption, and implementation for reaching carbon neutrality. Through iterative engagement with all parties, we refined the scenarios and focus of the analysis to best meet the stakeholders’ needs. We found that Malaysia can reduce its carbon intensity and reach carbon neutrality by 2050, and that action in Kuala Lumpur can play a significant role. Decarbonization of the power sector paired with extensive electrification, energy efficiency improvements in buildings, transportation, and industry, and the use of advanced technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture and storage will be major drivers to mitigate emissions, with carbon dioxide removal strategies being key to eliminate residual emissions. This study highlights the participatory process in which stakeholders contributed to the development of the model and guided the analysis, as well as insights into Malaysia’s decarbonization potential and the role of multilevel governance.

cities↗

Overlooked cooling effects of albedo in terrestrial ecosystems

Radiative forcing (RF) resulting from changes in surface albedo is increasingly recognized as a significant driver of global climate change but has not been adequately estimated, including by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, compared with other warming agents. Here, we first present the physical foundation for modeling albedo-induced RF and the consequent global warming impact (GWI Δα ). We then highlight the shortcomings of available current databases and methodologies for calculating GWI Δα at multiple temporal scales. There is a clear lack of comprehensive in situ measurements of albedo due to sparse geographic coverage of ground-based stations, whereas estimates from satellites suffer from biases due to the limited frequency of image collection, and estimates from earth system models (ESMs) suffer from very coarse spatial resolution land cover maps and associated albedo values in pre-determined lookup tables. Field measurements of albedo show large differences by ecosystem type and large diurnal and seasonal changes. As indicated from our findings in southwest Michigan, GWI Δα is substantial, exceeding the RF Δα values of IPCC reports. Inclusion of GWI Δα to landowners and carbon credit markets for specific management practices are needed in future policies. We further identify four pressing research priorities: developing a comprehensive albedo database, pinpointing accurate reference sites within managed landscapes, refining algorithms for remote sensing of albedo by integrating geostationary and other orbital satellites, and integrating the GWI Δα component into future ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage hub development on the Gulf Coast

Abstract The Gulf Coast of the United States hosts diverse power generation, refining, and petrochemical processing facilities, resulting in the nation's largest volumetric concentration of industrial CO 2 emissions, rivaled only by the Ohio River Valley. These emissions sources are concentrated in specific industrial clusters that allow combining emissions streams to achieve economies of scale. The region is currently undergoing globally significant industrial expansion and investment as a result of abundant and inexpensive regional unconventional natural gas availability, and is a growing exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Opportunities to integrate CO 2 emission management within the diverse energy chains in the region are volumetrically significant and include both concentrated and dilute sources. Significant examples of capture, transport, and storage exist. Offshore storage is particularly attractive, as it provides simplified land leasing models (single governmental land owner), proven reservoir quality, and presents fewer risks to both protected groundwater and populated areas. Projects can now take advantage of recently expanded opportunities under section 45Q of the Internal Revenue Service tax code. The region continues to evolve as an active carbon‐handling hub, and is uniquely suited to justify additional investment in carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies via a large‐scale integrated project development. Continued development of integrated projects will allow the region to continue to grow economically within its strong fossil‐fuel handling competence focus while advancing low‐carbon energy technologies that maintain globally competitiveness. © 2021 The Authors. Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

45Q↗

1D to 2D Transition in Tellurium Observed by 4D Electron Microscopy

A new microwave-enhanced synthesis method for the production of tellurium nanostructures is reported here—with control over products from the 1D regime (sub-5 nm diameter nanowires), to nanoribbons, to the 2D tellurene regime—along with a new methodology for local statistical quantification of the crystallographic parameters of these materials at the nanometer scale. Using a direct electron detector and image-corrected microscope, large and robust 4D scanning transmission electron microscopy datasets for accurate structural analysis are obtained. These datasets allow the adaptation of quantitative techniques originally developed for X-ray diffraction (XRD) refinement analyses to transmission electron microscopy, enabling the first demonstration of sub-picometer accuracy lattice parameter extraction while also obtaining both the size of the coherent crystallite domains and the nanostrain, which is observed to decrease as nanowires transition to tellurene. This new local analysis is commensurate with global powder XRD results, indicating the robustness of both the new synthesis approach and new structural analysis methodology for future scalable production of 2D tellurene and characterization of nanomaterials.

2D materials↗

Charged structure constants from modularity

We derive a universal formula for the average heavy-heavy-light structure constants for 2d CFTs with non-vanishing u(1) charge. The derivation utilizes the modular properties of one-point functions on the torus. Refinements in N = 2 SCFTs, show that the resulting Cardy-like formula for the structure constants has precisely the same shifts in the central charge as that of the thermodynamic entropy found earlier. This analysis generalizes the recent results by Kraus and Maloney for CFTs with an additional global u(1) symmetry. Our results at large central charge are also shown to match with computations from the holographic dual, which suggest that the averaged CFT three-point coefficient also serves as a useful probe of detecting black hole hair.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

U–Pb Geochronology and Stable Isotope Geochemistry of Terrestrial Carbonates, Lower Cretaceous Cedar Mountain Formation, Utah: Implications for Synchronicity of Terrestrial and Marine Carbon Isotope Excursions

The terrestrial Lower Cretaceous Cedar Mountain Formation, Utah, is a critical archive of paleoclimate, tectonics, and vertebrate ecology and evolution. Early Cretaceous carbon cycle perturbations associated with ocean anoxia have been interpreted from this succession, as expressed in stable carbon isotopes. However, refining the timing of the observed stable isotope excursions remains a key challenge in understanding how marine anoxia affects the Earth system, and is ultimately recorded in the terrestrial realm. The geochronology and geochemistry of a terrestrial carbonate near the base of this succession, which potentially records the Ap7 global carbon isotope excursion, is studied here. Petrographic and geochemical analyses are used to test plausible mechanisms for U incorporation into the calcite lattice in this sample. Using these methods, the hypothesis that the incorporation of U was at or close to the timing of carbonate precipitation is evaluated. U–Pb geochronology of calcite indicates a plausible Early Cretaceous age. However, comparison of the new U–Pb ages of calcite with detrital zircon maximum depositional ages immediately beneath the studied sample indicates a disparity in the apparent sedimentation rates if both types of geochronologic information are interpreted as reflecting the timing of sediment deposition. The totality of data supports an early, and high-temperature, diagenetic timing of U incorporation, with potential for minor leaching of U in subsequent fluid–rock interaction. The most likely mechanism for U transport and immobilization in these samples is hydrothermal fluid–rock interaction. Therefore, the radiometric ages, and corresponding stable isotope composition of U-bearing carbonate domains in this sample, indicate early subsurface fluid–rock interactions and not a record of atmosphere–soil geochemical reactions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The block adaptive multigrid method applied to the solution of the Euler equations

In the present study, a scheme capable of solving very fast and robust complex nonlinear systems of equations is presented. The Block Adaptive Multigrid (BAM) solution method offers multigrid acceleration and adaptive grid refinement based on the prediction of the solution error. The proposed solution method was used with an implicit upwind Euler solver for the solution of complex transonic flows around airfoils. Very fast results were obtained (18-fold acceleration of the solution) using one fourth of the volumes of a global grid with the same solution accuracy for two test cases.

Pantelelis, Nikos↗