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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Climate-extreme modeling framework for sustainable flood management in the Arabian Peninsula

Evaluating extreme precipitation events (EPEs) is essential for building climate-resilient water management strategies, but it remains a major challenge in ungauged basins. Using the 26,070 km 2 Wadi al-Rummah basin in central Saudi Arabia as a case study, we developed an alternative, reliable, cost-effective satellite-based framework that combines empirically derived EPE thresholds, imagery-calibrated 2D hydrodynamic modeling, GRACE water-storage diagnostics, and bias-corrected CMIP6 projections to assess flood hazards and recharge potential under current and future climate scenarios in ungauged basins. The integrated approach and the resulting findings followed four key steps: (1) Identified a 22.5 mm EPE threshold, the 80th percentile of 3-day GPM/IMERG rainfall (2000–2024), aligned with flood-triggering events (Nov 2018: 23–28 mm; Apr, 2023: 42 mm); (2) Developed and calibrated a RiverFlow2D model using Sentinel-2 and PlanetScope imagery for the November 2018 flood, accurately reproducing flood depth and extent (RMSE ≤0.31 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.91), and estimating runoff (41 %), infiltration (25 %), and evaporation (34 %); (3) Independently validated the model with the April 2023 event (RMSE ≤0.35 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.86); (4) Conducted climate projections (2025–2100) from five bias-corrected NEX-GDDP CMIP6 models that revealed a 34 % increase in EPE intensity under SSP2-4.5 and 48 % under SSP5-8.5 scenarios, relative to 20th-century baselines. Our findings indicate that while intensifying extremes in the 21st century increase flood risk, the results highlight the potential for episodic recharge if effective retention strategies are employed, and offer a transferable model for climate-informed planning in data-scarce arid regions.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seismic and acoustic signals from the 2014 ‘interstellar meteor’

SUMMARY We conduct a thorough analysis of seismic and acoustic data purported to be from the so-called ‘interstellar meteor’ which entered the Earth’s atmosphere off the coast of Papua New Guinea on 2014 January 08. Previous work had suggested that this meteor may have been caused by an alien spacecraft burning up in the atmosphere. We conclude that both previously reported seismic signals are spurious—one has characteristics suggesting a local vehicular-traffic-based origin; whilst the other is statistically indistinguishable from the background noise. As such, previously reported localizations based on this data are unreliable. Analysis of acoustic data provides a best-fitting location estimate which is very far ($\sim$170 km) from the reported fireball location. Accordingly, we conclude that material recovered from the seafloor and purported to be from this event is almost certainly unrelated to it, and is likely of more mundane (non-interstellar) origin.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Time-lapse seismic data inversion for estimating reservoir parameters using deep learning

Geologic carbon sequestration involves the injection of captured carbon dioxide ([Formula: see text]) into subsurface formations for long-term storage. The movement and fate of the injected [Formula: see text] plume is of great concern to regulators because monitoring helps to identify potential leakage zones and determines the possibility of safe long-term storage. To address this concern, we design a deep-learning framework for [Formula: see text] saturation monitoring to determine the geologic controls on the storage of the injected [Formula: see text]. We use different combinations of porosities and permeabilities for a given reservoir to generate saturation and velocity models. We train the deep-learning model with a few time-lapse seismic images and their corresponding changes in saturation values for a particular [Formula: see text] injection site. The deep-learning model learns the mapping from the change in the time-lapse seismic response to the change in [Formula: see text] saturation during the training phase. We then apply the trained model to data sets comprising different time-lapse seismic image slices (corresponding to different time instances) generated using different porosity and permeability distributions that are not part of the training to estimate the [Formula: see text] saturation values along with the plume extent. Our algorithm provides a deep-learning assisted framework for the direct estimation of [Formula: see text] saturation values and plume migration in heterogeneous formations using the time-lapse seismic data. Our method improves the efficiency of time-lapse inversion by streamlining the large number of intermediate steps in the conventional time-lapse inversion workflow. This method also helps to incorporate the geologic uncertainty for a given reservoir by accounting for the statistical distribution of porosity and permeability during the training phase. Tests on different examples verify the effectiveness of our approach.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Space‐Time Causal Discovery in Earth System Science: A Local Stencil Learning Approach

Causal discovery tools enable scientists to infer meaningful relationships from observational data, spurring advances in fields as diverse as biology, economics, and climate science. Despite these successes, the application of causal discovery to space-time systems remains immensely challenging due to the high-dimensional nature of the data. For example, in climate sciences, modern observational temperature records over the past few decades regularly measure thousands of locations around the globe. To address these challenges, we introduce Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning (CaStLe), a novel meta-algorithm for discovering causal structures in complex space-time systems. CaStLe leverages regularities in local space-time dependencies to learn governing global dynamics. This local perspective eliminates spurious confounding and drastically reduces sample complexity, making space-time causal discovery practical and effective. For causal discovery, CaStLe flexibly accepts any appropriately adapted time series causal discovery algorithm to recover local causal structures. These advances enable causal discovery of geophysical phenomena that were previously unapproachable, including non-periodic, transient phenomena such as volcanic eruption plumes. Regularities in local space-time dependencies are transformed into informative spatial replicates, which actually improve CaStLe's performance when applied to ever-larger spatial grids. We successfully apply CaStLe to discover the atmospheric dynamics governing the climate response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption. We provide validation experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of CaStLe over existing causal-discovery frameworks on a range of geophysics-inspired benchmarks while identifying the method's limitations and domains where its assumptions may not hold.

Nichol, J. Jake [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque,↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Post‐Perovskite Transition in Fe‐ and Al‐Bearing Bridgmanite: Effects on Seismic Observables

Abstract The primary phase of the Earth’s lower mantle, (Al, Fe)‐bearing bridgmanite, transitions to the post‐perovskite (PPv) phase at Earth’s deep mantle conditions. Despite extensive experimental and ab initio investigations, there are still important aspects of this transformation that need clarification. Here, we address this transition in (Al 3+ , Fe 3+ )‐, (Al 3+ )‐, (Fe 2+ )‐, and (Fe 3+ )‐bearing bridgmanite using ab initio calculations and validate our results against experiments on similar compositions. Consistent with experiments, our results show that the onset transition pressure and the width of the two‐phase region depend distinctly on the chemical composition: (a) Fe 3+ ‐, Al 3+ ‐, or (Al 3+ , Fe 3+ )‐alloying increases the transition pressure, while Fe 2+ ‐alloying has the opposite effect; (b) in the absence of coexisting phases, the pressure‐depth range of the Pv‐PPv transition is likely too broad to cause a sharp D” discontinuity (<30 km); (c) the average Clapeyron slope of the two‐phase regions are consistent with previous measurements, calculations in MgSiO 3 , and inferences from seismic data. In addition, (d) we observe a softening of the bulk modulus in the two‐phase region. The consistency between our results and experiments gives us the confidence to proceed and examine this transition in aggregates with different compositions computationally, which will be fundamental for resolving the most likely chemical composition of the D" region by analyses of tomographic images.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Opening doors to physical sample tracking and attribution in Earth and environmental sciences

Physical samples and their associated data and metadata underpin scientific discoveries across disciplines and can enable new science when appropriately archived. However, there are significant gaps in current practices and infrastructure that prevent accurate provenance tracking, reproducibility, and attribution. For most samples, descriptive metadata are often sparse, inaccessible, or absent. Samples and associated data and metadata may also be scattered across numerous physical collections, data repositories, laboratories, data files, and papers with no clear linkage or provenance tracking as new information is generated over time. The Earth Science Information Partners (ESIP) Physical Samples Curation Cluster has therefore developed guidance for scientific authors on ‘Publishing Open Research Using Physical Samples.’ This involved synthesizing existing practices, gathering community feedback, and assessing real-world examples. We identified improvements needed to enable authors to efficiently cite and link Earth science samples and related data, and track their use. Our goal is to help improve discoverability, interoperability, and reuse of physical samples, and associated data and metadata. Though primarily focused on the needs of Earth and environmental sciences, these guidelines are broadly applicable.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Chemistry and P-V-T equation of state of FeO 2 H x at the base of Earth’s lower mantle and their geophysical implications

The hydrogen-absorbing ability of a mantle mineral in its structure determines the capacity of the water reservoirs hosted by the mineral. Water reservoirs at the base of Earth’s mantle directly influence the fate of water brought down by slab subduction and the seismic heterogeneity such as ultralow-velocity zones (ULVZs) at the core-mantle boundary. Pyrite-FeO 2 H x (0 ≤ x ≤ 1) presents a possibility of such reservoirs in the deep mantle. Ever since the discovery of this mineral phase, however, its chemistry at the lower mantle conditions has been debated. We conducted kinetics experiments of pyrite-FeO 2 H x dehydrogenation at 110 GPa/2100 K, 110 GPa/2300 K, and 120 GPa/2300 K and P-V-T equation of state analysis using in situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction. We found that x approaches 0.80, 0.75, and 0.79, respectively, at the above conditions. The collective P-V-T data yield K 0 = 241(13) GPa, K' = 4.2(4), dK/dT = –0.028(1) GPa/K, α 0 = 4.32(13) × 10 –5 K –1 , and α 1 = 0.31(10) × 10 –8 K –2 for the composition of x = 0.75 ± 0.04. Our first-principles calculations indicate that FeO 2 H 0.75 with a slightly distorted pyrite structure is stable at 100 GPa. These results indicate that this mineral is likely present in the deep mantle with rather a partially dehydrogenated composition than FeO 2 or FeOOH. Furthermore, the results also clarify the difference between the ULVZs originated from pyrite-FeO 2 H x and those from partial melting in terms of shear and compressional wave seismic velocity reduction ratio δlnV S /δlnV P .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detecting an underground tunnel by applying joint traveltime and waveform inversion

Underground tunnel and void detection is a challenging geophysical problem, and many methods have been proposed. Seismic techniques are promising because of the large seismic velocity contrasts between the air-filled void and the surrounding sediment and concrete. We apply a joint seismic traveltime and waveform inversion method to image a buried tunnel with concrete walls and a void space inside. The joint inversion images the top of the concrete tunnel as a high-velocity anomaly and the void space as a low-velocity anomaly. The location of the velocity anomalies predicted by the method agrees with the known location of the tunnel. As a comparison, the stand-alone full waveform inversion is also applied to the data. The first-arrival traveltime tomography shows weak nonlinearity but fails to image the hidden low-velocity layer. Full waveform inversion is able to image complex near-surface structures, but fitting waveforms may not honor the traveltime fit, especially when the data contain noise. Synthetic and real data tests show that the joint inversion method retains the advantages of both traveltime inversion and full waveform inversion and overcomes their respective drawbacks at the same time. The field example shows the joint inversion provides a better reconstruction of the high-velocity feature representing the top of the concrete wall in terms of its magnitude and location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computed Tomography Scanning and Geophysical Measurements of UW Enterprises LP 1-250512-129 Well in Southwestern Indiana

The computed tomography (CT) facilities and the Multi-Sensor Core Logger (MSCL) at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in Morgantown, West Virginia, were used to characterize Illinois Basin core of the Upper Devonian-Early Mississippian New Albany Shale Formation from Posey County, Indiana. The primary impetus of this work is a collaboration between Indiana Geological and Water Survey at Indiana University Bloomington, NETL, and Woolsey Operating Company LLC to characterize and make publicly available core information from the New Albany Shale of the Illinois Basin. Core characterization of this unconventional oil/gas well will aid in understanding the lithology changes and the fracture complexity of the New Albany Shale. There is a potential for this formation to be developed in the future for critical mineral and rare earth element (CM/REE) extraction. The resultant datasets are presented in this report and can be accessed from NETL's Energy Data eXchange (EDX) online system using the following link: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/uw-enterprises. All equipment and techniques used were non-destructive, enabling future examinations and analyses to be performed on this core. None of the equipment used was suitable for direct visualization of the pore space in the fine-grained structures studied; however, fractures, discontinuities, and millimeter-scale features were readily detectable with the methods tested. Imaging with the NETL medical CT scanner was performed on the entire core. Targeted higher resolution CT scanning of select sections was performed with NETL’s industrial and micro-CT scanner. Qualitative analysis of the medical CT images, coupled with X-ray fluorescence (XRF), P-wave, and magnetic susceptibility measurements from the MSCL were useful in identifying zones of interest for more detailed analysis. The ability to quickly identify key areas for more detailed study with higher resolution will save time and resources in future studies. The combination of methods used provides a multi-scale analysis of the core; the resulting macro and micro descriptions are relevant to many subsurface energy related examinations traditionally performed at NETL.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Monitoring of Fracture Dynamics with a Contrast Agent-Assisted Electromagnetic Method

In collaboration with the Advanced Energy Consortium, our team has previously demonstrated that the placement of electrically active proppants (EAPs) in a hydraulic fracture surveyed by electromagnetic (EM) methods can enhance the imaging of the stimulated reservoir volumes during hydraulic fracturing. That work culminated in constructing a well-characterized EAP-filled fracture anomaly at the Devine field pilot site (DFPS). In subsequent laboratory studies, we observed that the electrical conductivity of our EAP correlates with changes in pressure, salinity, and flow. Thus, we postulated that the EAP could be used as an in-situ sensor for the remote monitoring of these changes in previously EAP-filled fractures. This paper presents our latest field data from the DFPS to demonstrate such correlations at an intermediate pilot scale. We conducted surface-based EM surveys during freshwater (200 ppm) and saltwater (2,500 ppm) slug injections while running surfaced-based EM surveys. Simultaneously, we measured the following: 1) bottomhole pressure and salinity in five monitoring wells; 2) injection rate using high-precision data loggers; 3) distributed acoustic sensors in four monitoring wells; and 4) tiltmeter data on the survey area. We demonstrated that injections into an EAP-filled fracture could be successfully coupled with real-time electric field measurements on the surface, leading to remote monitoring of dynamic changes within the EAP-filled fracture. Furthermore, by comparing the electrical field traces with the bottomhole pressure, flow rate, and salinity, we concluded that the observed electric field in our study is influenced by fracture dilation and flow rate. Salinity effect was observed when saltwater was injected. EM simulations solely based on assumptions of fracture conductivity changes during injection did not reproduce all of the measured electric field magnitudes. Preliminary estimates showed that including streaming potential in our geophysical model may be needed to reduce the simulation mismatch. The methods developed and demonstrated during this study will lead to a better understanding of the extent of fracture networks, formation stress states, fluid leakoff and invasion, characterizations of engineered fracture systems, and other applications where monitoring subsurface flow tracking is deemed important.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computed Tomography Scanning and Geophysical Measurements of the Patterson #5-25 Well in Western Kansas

The computed tomography (CT) facilities and the Multi-Sensor Core Logger (MSCL) at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) site in Morgantown, West Virginia, were used to characterize core from the Patterson Field site. This core came from a vertical well (Patterson #5-25 well) that was obtained as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored Integrated Midcontinental Stacked Carbon Storage Hub. The primary impetus of this work is a collaboration between NETL and the Kansas Geological Survey to characterize core from the Patterson Field site. The 625 ft of whole core from the Atoka Formation to Precambrian Basement was characterized at NETL. As part of this effort, bulk scans of core were obtained. This report, and the associated scans, provide detailed datasets not typically made publicly available for carbon capture utilization and storage analysis. The resultant datasets are presented in this report and can be accessed from NETL's Energy Data eXchange (EDX) online system using the following link: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/patterson-5-25-well. All equipment and techniques used were non-destructive, enabling future examinations and analyses to be performed on these cores. None of the equipment used was suitable for direct visualization of the shale pore space, although fractures and discontinuities were detectable with the methods tested. Low resolution CT imagery with the NETL medical CT scanner was performed on the entire core. Qualitative analysis of the medical CT images, coupled with x-ray fluorescence (XRF), P-wave, and magnetic susceptibility measurements from the MSCL are useful in identifying zones of interest for more detailed analysis as well as fractured zones. The ability to quickly identify key areas for more detailed study with higher resolution will save time and resources in future studies. The combination of methods used provided a multi-scale analysis of this core and provided both a macro and micro description of the core that is relevant for many subsurface energy related examinations that have traditionally been performed at NETL.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Round-Robin Interlaboratory Study on Rare-Earth Elements in U.S.-Based Geologic Materials

In a study funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), the University of North Dakota (UND) Energy and Environmental Research Center (EERC) performed a first-of-its-kind round-robin interlaboratory study (RRIS) to determine lab-to-lab and method-to-method variability in analyzing the rare earth element (REE) content of domestic resources. Analyses of REEs on eleven different materials were accomplished by the laboratories using four different procedures: ASTM D6357 (Procedure A), ASTM D4503 (Procedure B), an alternate in-house procedure for digestion and REE analysis (Procedure C), and neutron activation analysis (NAA). The results of the RRIS suggest that NAA is the most accurate and reliable method for many of the REEs in these types of materials; however, the method is limited in that it is able to determining only ten of the sixteen REEs. Five of the seven labs reporting data for Procedure A and three of the five labs reporting for Procedure B showed excellent performance in terms of repeatability, reproducibility, agreement with NAA, and SRM recoveries based on AOAC International guidelines on method performance. This indicates that when strictly followed these methods are suitable for REE determination in most materials, although are subject to the overall capabilities and experience of individual laboratories.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of fracture diagnostic methods for fluid distribution based on quantitative interpretation of distributed acoustic sensing and distributed temperature sensing

Multistage hydraulic fracturing design on horizontal wells has significantly evolved with larger fluid volume, more fracturing stages, and tighter perforation cluster spacing to efficiently stimulate unconventional reservoirs. From the published field observations, the recent fracturing design results in complex fracture networks or swarm of fractures. Fracture treatment evaluation is extremely challenging in such a case because of the large amount of variables in well completion and stimulation design. Combined measurements from different technologies can help in fracture diagnosis. Fluid distribution, either during fracture injection or during production, directly relates to the stimulation efficiency at the cluster level and at the stage level. Because it is unlikely in the real world to distribute the injected fluid uniformly among all the clusters, we need diagnostic techniques to generate the flow profile along a lateral. Fiber-optic measurements, such as distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) and distributed temperature sensing (DTS), are currently used to diagnose downhole flow conditions. This technology allows us to qualitatively confirm the fluid flow profile and other issues occurring downhole during fracturing such as leakage through plugs. For optimizing a fracturing design, we also need to understand how the design parameters are correlated with the stimulation efficiency. In this study, we combine two sets of models of DAS and DTS data interpretation for injected fluid volume distribution. The DAS is interpreted based on an empirical correlation between fluid flow rates and frequency band energy from the acoustic signals. The DTS is interpreted by performing temperature history match-based thermal energy conservation. Because of the completely different physics behind the interpretations, the confirmation of two interpretations provides confidence in fluid distribution.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detection of a Space Capsule Entering Earth’s Atmosphere with Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS)

On 24 September 2023, the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer sample return capsule (SRC) entered Earth’s atmosphere after successfully collecting samples from an asteroid. The known trajectory and timing of this return provided a rare opportunity to strategically instrument sites to record geophysical signals produced by the capsule because it travelled at hypersonic speeds through the atmosphere. For this work, we deployed two distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) interrogators to sample over 12 km of surface-draped fiber-optic cables, as well as six collocated seismometer-infrasound sensor pairs, spread across two sites near Eureka, Nevada. This campaign-style rapid deployment is the first reported recording of an SRC re-entry with any distributed fiber-optic sensing technology. The DAS interrogators recorded an impulsive arrival with an extended coda which had features that were similar to recordings from both the seismometers and infrasound sensors. While the signal-to-noise ratio of the DAS data was lower than the seismic-infrasound data, the extremely dense spacing of fiber-optic sensors allowed for more phases to be clearly distinguished and the visualization of the continuous transformation of the wavefront as it impacted the ground. Unexpectedly, the DAS recordings contain less low-frequency content than is present in both the seismic and infrasound data. The deployment conditions strongly affected the recorded DAS data; in particular, we observed that fiber selection and placement exert strong controls on data quality.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving Subsurface Stress Characterization for Carbon Dioxide Storage Projects by Incorporating Machine Learning Techniques

The overall objective of this project is to develop a framework for reliable characterization and prediction of the state of stress in the overburden and underburden (including the basement) in CO 2 storage reservoirs using machine learning and integrated geomechanics and geophysical methods. Specifically, we propose to develop workflow encompassing of technologies and/or methods to predict stress and pressure changes due to CO 2 injection in an active tertiary recovery site and their impacts on subtle fault activation, fractures and occurrence of microseismic events and compare responses to field observations. In this project, we anticipate using dataset from the Farnsworth field Unit (FWU) which is operated by Purdure Petroleum. A novel elastic-waveform VSP inversion technique will be used to estimate high-resolution spatial and temporal changes of elastic moduli in CO 2 storage reservoirs, which will be combined with velocity-stress relationship derived from laboratory tests to obtain subsurface pressure and stress. Clustered microseismic data will be jointly inverted for improved focal mechanisms. Least-squares reverse-time migration of microseismic waveform data will be performed to directly image fracture/fault zones. Additionally, a deep neural network machine learning technique with convolutional and recurrent layers will be used for learning the spectro-temporal structures in microseismic waveforms. The results of this geotechnical data analysis will be integrated to develop a high-resolution 3D mechanical earth model extending from the overburden sealing formations to the underburden including the basement. Mechanical properties will be derived through integration of mechanical logs, tests, available results from chemo-mechanical laboratory tests, and elastic inversion of seismic data using a combination of Bayesian and stochastic methods as well as machine learning technique. Failure features (faults/fractures) will be represented and/or modeled based on seismic and core data analysis. A transient hydrodynamic-geomechanical model will be developed through coupling with the calibrated FWU reservoir simulation model. The full physics coupled model will be used to train a reduced order proxy model using machine learning algorithm for estimating stress which will then be used with appropriate constitutive relationships and forward seismological models to simulate pressure changes and induced microseismicity. An advanced optimization framework will be developed to perform a history match to minimize error between field observations and simulated. The history matched proxy model will be verified against the full-physics equivalent. The field observations that will be used in the coupled model calibration process include pressure/stress inverted from VSP, moment magnitude from microseismic analysis, real time downhole pressure measurements, production and injection data. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis will be performed to characterize the impact of model parameter uncertainty on stress estimates. The proposed project will have significant impact on future field implementation of the proposed technology. Because the project field site is an ongoing CO 2 EOR development, the value of the new technology will be demonstrated in an operational context and evaluated as a viable risk mitigation strategy. Cost/benefit will be evaluated together with the various commercial incentives for CO 2 sequestration available to oil and gas operators. The extensive available dataset and ongoing data acquisition under the SWP Phase III work plan provides flexibility for investigation of multiple approaches and reduces technical risk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of the Near-Surface Variables in the HRRR Weather Model Using Observations from the ARM SGP Site

Abstract The performance of version 4 of the NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model for near-surface variables, including wind, humidity, temperature, surface latent and sensible fluxes, and longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes, is examined over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) region. The study evaluated the model’s bias and bias-corrected mean absolute error relative to the observations on different time scales. Forecasts of near-surface geophysical variables at five SGP sites (HRRR at 3-km scale) were found to agree well with observations, but some consistent observation–forecast differences also occurred. Sensible and latent heat fluxes are the most challenging variables to be reproduced. The diurnal cycle is the main temporal scale affecting observation–forecast differences of the near-surface variables, and almost all of the variables showed different biases throughout the diurnal cycle. Results show that the overestimation of downward shortwave and the underestimation of downward longwave radiative flux are the two major biases found in this study. The timing and magnitude of downward longwave flux, wind speed, and sensible and latent heat fluxes are also different with contributions from model representations, data assimilation limitations, and differences in scales between HRRR and SGP sites. The positive bias in downward shortwave and negative bias in longwave radiation suggests that the model is underestimating cloud fraction in the study domain. The study concludes by showing a brief comparison with version 3 of the HRRR and shows that version 4 has better performance in almost all near-surface variables. Significance Statement A correct representation of the near-surface variables is important for numerical weather prediction models. This study investigates the capability of the latest NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRRv4) model in simulating the near-surface variables by comparing against the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) in situ observations. Among others, we find that the surface heat fluxes, such as sensible and latent heat fluxes, are the most difficult variables to be reproduced. This study also shows that the diurnal cycle has the dominant impact on the model’s performance, which means the majority of the outputted near-surface variables have the strong diurnal cycle in their bias errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of Close-in Ground Motion from an Underground Chemical Explosion

Understanding the geophysical response near an underground explosion is crucial for generating insights into the source and emplacement conditions that produce distinct observations in monitoring scenarios occurring at greater distances. Recently, Shot A of the Low Yield Nuclear Monitoring (LYNM) Physics Experiment 1 (PE1) series was conducted at the Nevada National Security Site to provide ground truth for subsurface explosion signal models. This experiment resulted in measuring near-source ground motion at distances ranging from 70 to 1000 m/kt with a 99% success rate, yielding high-fidelity knowledge of the near-field response that can serve as benchmarks for future numerical modeling and experiment planning. However, technical challenges exist in observing near-source phenomena while safeguarding sensitive data acquisition components from the detrimental effects of ground motion in the subsurface. This report outlines tools and techniques to address challenges associated with observing near-source accelerations and within the tunnel drift of the PE1 test bed. Additionally, we describe key systems designed with both modern advancements and legacy guidance to maximize the collection of high-quality ground motion data, which may be applied to constitutive and computational models, leading to new or improved understanding of the near- and far-field signals produced by underground explosions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗