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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Improving Dose Modeling With Dynamic Modeling Tools [Slides]

Utilities aiming for higher fuel enrichment for power uprates or extended operation times before refueling must conduct a new dose analysis. Current conservative dose estimation standards may cause utilities to exceed regulatory limits for proposed increased fuel enrichment. A more accurate modeling of doses from reactor accidents can lower these conservative assumptions. Prescott et al. (2022) demonstrated that the Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) software tool, developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), can be coupled with the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP5) for dynamic accident analysis in reactor plants. EMRALD forms models of potential accident scenarios, while MAAP5 simulates the accident progression and dose consequences. By integrating these software tools with utility-specific data, a more precise estimation of dose consequences from plant accidents can be achieved. Preliminary findings indicate that EMRALD provides accurate mean core damage frequencies for generalized accident scenarios. Future work includes expanding the model to account for plant-specific data and mitigation factors.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probing-Based Inertia Estimation Method Using Hybrid Power Plants

With the displacement of synchronous generation by inverter-based resources (IBRs), power systems could face the challenge of reduced inertia since IBRs do not inherently contribute to system inertia. Therefore, there is rising interest in monitoring system inertia in real-time applications for situational awareness. In addition, there is a growing number of IBRs that provide fast frequency responses (FFR) in the form of synthetic inertia and P-f droop. It is desirable to quantify the contribution of these FFR controls as equivalent inertia. This paper proposes a probing-based inertia estimation method using a PV-battery hybrid power plant in the Kauai island power system. The method is validated under different operating conditions.

hybrid power plant↗
DOE OSTI2022

Datasets for characterizing extreme events relevant to hydrologic design over the conterminous United States

Despite the close linkage between extreme floods and snowmelt, particularly through rain-on-snow (ROS), hydrologic infrastructure is mostly designed based on standard precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (PREC-IDF) that neglect snow processes in runoff generation. For snow-dominated regions, such simplification could result in substantial errors in estimating extreme events and infrastructure design risk. To address this long-standing problem, we applied the Next Generation IDF (NG-IDF) technique to estimate design basis extreme events for different durations and return periods in the conterminous United States (CONUS) to distinctly represent the contribution of rain, snowmelt, and ROS events to the amount of water reaching the land surface. A suite of datasets were developed to characterize the magnitude, trend, seasonality, and dominant mechanism of extreme events for over 200,000 locations. Infrastructure design risk associated with the use of PREC-IDF was estimated. Accuracy of the model simulations used in the analyses was confirmed by long-term snow data at over 200 Snowpack Telemetry stations. The presented spatially continuous datasets are readily usable and instrumental for supporting site-specific infrastructure design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Systematic Assessment of Retrieval Methods for Canopy Far-Red Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence Using High-Frequency Automated Field Spectroscopy

Remote sensing of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) offers potential to infer photosynthesis across scales and biomes. Many retrieval methods have been developed to estimate top-of-canopy SIF using ground-based spectroscopy. However, inconsistencies among methods may confound interpretation of SIF dynamics, eco-physiological/environmental drivers, and its relationship with photosynthesis. Using high temporal- and spectral resolution ground-based spectroscopy, we aimed to (1) evaluate performance of SIF retrieval methods under diverse sky conditions using continuous field measurements; (2) assess method sensitivity to fluctuating light, reflectance, and fluorescence emission spectra; and (3) inform users for optimal ground-based SIF retrieval. Analysis included field measurements from bi-hemispherical and hemispherical-conical systems and synthetic upwelling radiance constructed from measured downwelling radiance, simulated reflectance, and simulated fluorescence for benchmarking. Fraunhofer-based differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) and singular vector decomposition (SVD) retrievals exhibit convergent SIF-PAR relationships and diurnal consistency across different sky conditions, while O2A-based spectral fitting method (SFM), SVD, and modified Fraunhofer line discrimination (3FLD) exhibit divergent SIF-PAR relationships across sky conditions. We find that such behavior holds across system configurations, though hemispherical-conical systems diverge less across sky conditions. O 2 A retrieval accuracy, influenced by atmospheric distortion, improves with a narrower fitting window and when training SVD with temporally local spectra. This may impact SIF-photosynthesis relationships interpreted by previous studies using O 2 A-based retrievals with standard (759–767.76 nm) fitting windows. Fraunhofer-based retrievals resist atmospheric impacts but are noisier and more sensitive to assumed SIF spectral shape than O 2 A-based retrievals. We recommend SVD or SFM using reduced fitting window (759.5–761.5 nm) for robust far-red SIF retrievals across sky conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Capacitor Voltage Ripple Estimation and Optimal Sizing of Modular Multi-Level Converters for Variable-Speed Drives

This article deals with the sizing of submodule capacitors for modular multilevel converters (MMCs) used for variable speed drives for medium voltage and high voltage electric machines. Variable speed drives are required to run over a wide frequency range from zero to a few hundred Hz or even over 1 kHz. Under low frequency operation (<30 Hz), a large current ripple flowing through the MMC submodule capacitors will cause significant capacitor voltage fluctuation. This article proposes an optimal submodule capacitor selection method based on the common-mode voltage injection. The proposed sizing model includes two functions: 1) accurately estimating the capacitor voltage ripple based on the drive system parameters; and 2) identifying the minimum capacitance of the submodule capacitors based on the allowed maximum capacitor voltage fluctuations. Simulation and experimental results show that the error between the actual and estimated values of the voltage fluctuation is within 3% using the proposed model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Seismic Elastic Double-Beam Characterization of Faults and Fractures for CO₂ Storage Site Selection

Site characterization for underground injection and storage of gigatonne-scale CO₂ requires reliable and cost-effective methods to detect and characterize faults and fractures and to assess their stress state and fault activation potential. This is critical, as wastewater injection and disposal have been shown to activate faults and induce earthquakes, and CO₂ leakage remains a key concern for long-term storage. In this project, we developed seismic methods to detect and characterize large-scale sedimentary and crystalline basement faults and associated small-scale fractures below conventional seismic imaging resolution using multicomponent (9C) surface seismic data. Machine learning was used to automatically interpret large-scale faults, providing key information for estimating the maximum magnitude of potential induced earthquakes. High-fidelity imaging was achieved by exploiting redundancy across multiple elastic wave modes, where independent images from different modes and frequencies cross-validate each other. We also used our nonlinear signal comparison (NLSC) method for ground roll removal, improving data quality in complex near-surface conditions. The methods were validated using field data acquired in central Montana. Results show that basement faults extend into the sedimentary section and that small-scale fractures are widespread above the basement. The inferred stress orientation is consistent with regional stress data, and the estimated maximum induced earthquake magnitude is small (Mw ~2.3). The developed workflow provides a practical approach for fault and fracture characterization and for assessing induced seismicity and leakage risk. It is directly applicable to CO₂ storage site selection and to other subsurface systems.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combining translational and rotational seismic motions to invert local-scale seismic data for time-variable moment tensors: do rotational motions help for high-frequency seismic data produced by underground explosions?

SUMMARY We present an analysis of combining translational and rotational seismic data in an inversion for the time-variable source time functions corresponding to the components of the seismic moment tensor. We conduct a series of numerical experiments where the data are simulated by a combination of an underground explosion and a co-located double couple shear source and recorded on surface-mounted seismometers within 1–2 km of the source. The experiments are designed to mimic explosion seismology experiments, and thus the data are in the 1–10 Hz frequency range and contain very few surface waves. We use a Monte Carlo method to propagate Earth model uncertainty into the estimates of seismic source parameters. In our experiments, we find that the uncertainty of the estimated seismic source parameters increases when we add rotational seismic motions to the inversion when using a constant number of data channels. In this case, the increased degree of uncertainty in the final results is most likely due to the near-surface Earth model uncertainty that we introduce in our simulations. However, for a fixed number of seismic stations, adding rotational seismic motions to the inversion acts to decrease the uncertainty of the estimated seismic source parameters, most likely due to the increase in the number of data channels used in the inversion.

Poppeliers, Christian (ORCID:0000000159526849)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation of Impedance Changes with Aging in Lithium Titanate-based Cells Using Physics-Based Dimensionless Modeling

Quantifying aging effects in lithium-ion cells with chemistries that have a flat open circuit potential is challenging. We implement a physics-based electrochemical model to track changes in the electrochemical impedance response of lithium titanate-based cells. Frequency domain equations of a pseudo two-dimensional model are made dimensionless, and the corresponding non-dimensional parameters are estimated using a Levenberg-Marquardt routine. The model weighs the relative contributions of changes in diffusion, ionic conduction within the electrolyte phase against solid phase electronic conduction towards cell aging. Solid-phase diffusion, charge transfer resistance and double layer capacitance at the solid-liquid interface are accounted for in the particle impedance. The estimation routine tracks dimensionless parameters using accelerated cycling data from full cells over 1000 cycles. The model can be deployed within a short time for state estimation using physics-based models without requiring prior knowledge of the battery chemistry, format, or capacity.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Changes in Annual Extremes of Daily Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models

This study presents an analysis of daily temperature and precipitation extremes with return periods ranging from 2 to 50 years in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multimodel ensemble of simulations. Judged by similarity with reanalyses, the new-generation models simulate the present-day temperature and precipitation extremes reasonably well. In line with previous CMIP simulations, the new simulations continue to project a large-scale picture of more frequent and more intense hot temperature extremes and precipitation extremes and vanishing cold extremes under continued global warming. Changes in temperature extremes outpace changes in global annual mean surface air temperature (GSAT) over most landmasses, while changes in precipitation extremes follow changes in GSAT globally at roughly the Clausius–Clapeyron rate of ~7% °C –1 . Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes normalized with respect to GSAT do not depend strongly on the choice of forcing scenario or model climate sensitivity, and do not vary strongly over time, but with notable regional variations. Over the majority of land regions, the projected intensity increases and relative frequency increases tend to be larger for more extreme hot temperature and precipitation events than for weaker events. To obtain robust estimates of these changes at local scales, large initial-condition ensemble simulations are needed. Appropriate spatial pooling of data from neighboring grid cells within individual simulations can, to some extent, reduce the needed ensemble size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Pn magnitude scale m b ( Pn ) for earthquakes along the equatorial Mid-Atlantic Ridge

We developed a short-period Pn magnitude scale m b (Pn) for earthquakes along the equatorial Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Due to low signal-to-noise ratios, teleseismic body wave magnitude and long-period surface wave magnitude cannot be confidently determined for small earthquakes of m b < 4. Local magnitude scales are also not useful for these events because the oceanic environment does not allow the propagation of crustal phases. However, regional high-frequency Pn waves from these small- to moderate-size (m b 3–6) earthquakes are well recorded in the equatorial Atlantic region and can be used to assign magnitudes. We measured over 2041 Pn peak amplitudes on vertical records from about 21 stations in northeastern Brazil and 11 stations in western Africa in the distance range of 700–3700 km. We analysed data from 189 events from the global centroid moment tensor catalogue to tie our m b (Pn) scale to M w so that seismic moments can be readily estimated. Pn arrivals show apparent group velocity between 7.9 km s –1 at short ranges (~1000 km) and up to 9.1 km s –1 at 3500 km. The measured peak amplitudes have a frequency between 0.8 and 3 Hz at 1000–1800 km, but at greater distances, 1800–3700 km, they show a remarkably consistent frequency of about 0.8 Hz. The peak amplitude attenuates at a higher rate at short distances (~0.65 magnitude units between 700 and 2000 km) but attenuates at a lower rate at long distances (~0.35 magnitude units between 2000 and 3700 km). The low rate of amplitude decay with distance and nearly constant frequency content of the peak amplitudes suggest that Pn waves propagate efficiently in the lower part of the upper mantle in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean basins. Furthermore, these are important attributes of oceanic Pn waves that can be used to assign magnitude for small- to moderate-size earthquakes in the equatorial mid-Atlantic region. The estimated station corrections correlate well with upper mantle low-velocity anomalies, especially in Brazil.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Switchgrass sward establishment selection is consistent across multiple environments and fertilization levels

Strong selection can occur during switchgrass sward establishment. Differences in establishment selection due to environment or management could provide information on genotype-by-environment variation and could influence strategies for breeding perennial grasses. Leaf samples were collected before sward establishment and from 3-year-old swards for two breeding groups (lowland and hybrid) at three locations. Within two locations, samples were collected from paired fertilized (112 kg N ha –1 ) and unfertilized plots. Allele frequencies from pooled DNA samples were studied through multivariate analysis of variance, genomewide trait predictions (heading date and winter survivorship), and genomically estimated breeding values (GEBVs) for individual sward survival within an independent data set. This study found only minor variations in selection due to location or management. Predicted heading dates of the hybrid population had significant changes due to fertilization and location. There were strong correlations among sward establishment survival GEBVs between growing environments (hybrid r = 0.77; gulf r = 0.97). Interestingly, this study found a small number of genotypes that were over-represented in established swards across all growing environments. This study reinforces a prior report of selection during sward establishment and indicates that only a small degree of establishment selection is location-specific within these diverse growing conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating value of information for heliostat washing operations at solar thermal plants

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants depend on thousands of heliostats whose reflectance declines as dust accumulates. Operators routinely measure reflectance to estimate soiling and, in turn, inform cleaning schedules, but the value of collecting more frequent or more accurate data has not been formally quantified. This study introduces a Monte Carlo discrete event simulation framework that integrates stochastic models of soiling, weather, and measurement error with a dynamic cleaning dispatch policy to estimate annual energy production and operations costs. Applied to two representative central-receiver field configurations, the results show that both the frequency and accuracy of reflectance measurements can meaningfully impact plant performance. In both case studies, reducing measurement intervals yields significant returns, with the energy gains greatly exceeding the cost of more frequent data collection. The simulation framework serves as a decision-support tool for CSP operators, allowing them to input site-specific soiling conditions, measurement accuracy, and survey frequency to evaluate the tradeoffs between data collection cost and energy recovery, and to identify measurement strategies that maximize plant profit.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of spatial and seasonal trends in the atmosphere and construction of statistical models for infrasonic propagation

SUMMARY Infrasonic waves are influenced by variations in the density, pressure and temperature as well as the ambient winds. Modelling infrasonic propagation can be challenging due to the dynamic nature of the atmosphere as well as the sparseness of measurements which result in variability and notable uncertainty. A framework is presented to quantify spatial and seasonal trends in atmospheric structure via analysis of the effective sound speed profile and identification of temporal trends in the middle atmospheric waveguide produced by the circumpolar vortex winds. Seasonal definitions identifying typical atmospheric structures during the summer, winter and spring/fall transition periods are identified using atmospheric data from 2010 through 2020. Seasonal trend analysis is conducted for a number of locations across the contiguous United States to quantify spatial variations in atmospheric structure that impact infrasonic propagation. For each season and location, empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reduce the historical archive of atmospheric data into a smaller representative set that can be analysed using numerical tools more efficiently. Infrasonic ray tracing and finite-frequency modal propagation analyses are applied to construct propagation path geometry and transmission loss statistics which are useful in localization and yield estimation for infrasonic sources, respectively. An example application is detailed in which transmission loss statistics are combined with an explosive source model and noise statistics to quantify the capability of a network to detect nearby sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A study on the clustering properties of radio-selected sources in the Lockman Hole region at 325 MHz

Studying the spatial distribution of extragalactic source populations is vital in understanding the matter distribution in the Universe. It also enables understanding the cosmological evolution of dark matter density fields and the relationship between dark matter and luminous matter. Clustering studies are also required for EoR foreground studies since it affects the relevant angular scales. This paper investigates the angular and spatial clustering properties and the bias parameter of radio-selected sources in the Lockman Hole field at 325 MHz. The data probes sources with fluxes ≳0.3 mJy within a radius of 1.8° around the phase centre of a 6° × 6° mosaic. Based on their radio luminosity, the sources are classified into Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) and Star-Forming Galaxies (SFGs). Clustering and bias parameters are determined for the combined populations and the classified sources. The spatial correlation length and the bias of AGNs are greater than SFGs- indicating that more massive haloes host the former. This study is the first reported estimate of the clustering property of sources at 325 MHz, intermediate between the pre-existing studies at high and low-frequency bands. It also probes a well-studied deep field at an unexplored frequency with moderate depth and area. Clustering studies require such observations along different lines of sight, with various fields and data sets across frequencies to avoid cosmic variance and systematics. Thus, an extragalactic deep field has been studied in this work to contribute to this knowledge.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Processes and mechanisms of coastal woody-plant mortality

Observations of woody plant mortality in coastal ecosystems are globally widespread, but the overarching processes and underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. This knowledge deficiency, combined with rapidly changing water levels, storm surges, atmospheric CO 2 , and vapor pressure deficit, creates large predictive uncertainty regarding how coastal ecosystems will respond to global change. Here we synthesize the literature on the mechanisms that underlie coastal woody-plant mortality, with the goal of producing a testable hypothesis framework. The key emergent mechanisms underlying mortality include hypoxic, osmotic, and ionic-driven reductions in whole-plant hydraulic conductance and photosynthesis that ultimately drive the coupled processes of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. The relative importance of these processes in driving mortality, their order of progression, and their degree of coupling depends on the characteristics of the anomalous water exposure, on topographic effects, and on taxa-specific variation in traits and trait acclimation. Greater inundation exposure could accelerate mortality globally; however, the interaction of changing inundation exposure with elevated CO 2 , drought, and rising vapor pressure deficit could influence mortality likelihood. Models of coastal forests that incorporate the frequency and duration of inundation, the role of climatic drivers, and the processes of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation can yield improved estimates of inundation-induced woody-plant mortality.

salinity↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the Functional Forms of Grid Disturbances

This report introduces a functional form that may be used to quantitatively predict the impacts of new grid tools and changing system qualities on the likelihoods, durations, and depths of various grid disturbances. Each disturbance scenario is modeled to have three component stages—avoidance, reactance and recovery, which together parametrically estimate one disturbance’s impacts. The modeled scenario is then placed and replicated within an analysis period to represent the likelihood or frequency of the scenario and its consequent impacts. Whereas analysts have struggled to define and apply metrics for grid resilience, the functional form introduced by this report shares units of measurement with accepted grid-status measures (e.g., numbers of customers currently experiencing a service outage). Furthermore, the integrated and averaged functional form over an analysis period provides a meaningful normalized performance metric (e.g., customer outage minutes per year) that is ultimately independent of the duration of the period of. The approach may be applied similarly regardless of the severity or frequency of the disturbances that are being analyzed. Because metrics can be chosen to be identical in both the hypothetical future and the actual historical past, the historical past eventually becomes the test of the future predictions, at least in a statistical sense. The authors originally developed this approach to facilitate analysis of the effects of transactive energy (TE) systems effects on electric power grid resilience. TE systems invite energy suppliers and consumers to actively collaborate toward the discovery of, and their responses to, the locational value of energy. The findings from this process are often embodied as energy prices, the dynamics of which indicate the locational value of energy and can further represent important grid service needs. While some academic papers claim to quantify the value of a specific TE system design toward grid resilience, the answer, in general, has been elusive. Not only do multiple and conflicting definitions of resilience and reliability exist, but countless TE systems are being invented. We conclude the following: (1) The ideal analysis should harmonize rather than differentiate resilience and reliability. Therefore, this report uses the more general term disturbance whenever the overloaded terms resilience and reliability can be avoided. (2) The effectiveness of TE systems must be mapped to underlying qualities of a TE system, thereby avoiding presumptions that every TE design offers similar advantages. The authors seek to evaluate the parametric effects of TE system qualities (e.g., spatial granularity, granularity of time steps, length of future prediction horizon) on avoiding, reacting to, and recovering from grid disturbances. Furthermore, any advantages (or disadvantages) must be fairly compared with the many alternative tools, systems, and strategies that might offer comparable benefits.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bulk Viscosity of Relativistic npeμ Matter in Neutron-Star Mergers

We discuss the bulk viscosity of hot and dense npeμ matter arising from weak-interaction direct Urca processes. We consider two regimes of interest: (a) the neutrino-transparent regime with T ≤ T tr (T tr ≃ 5 ÷ 10 MeV is the neutrino-trapping temperature); and (b) the neutrino-trapped regime with T ≥ T tr . Nuclear matter is modeled in relativistic density functional approach with density-dependent parametrization DDME2. The maximum of the bulk viscosity is achieved at temperatures T ≃ 5 ÷ 6 MeV in the neutrino-transparent regime, then it drops rapidly at higher temperatures where neutrino-trapping occurs. As an astrophysical application, we estimate the damping timescales of density oscillations by the bulk viscosity in neutron star mergers and find that, e.g., at the oscillation frequency f = 10 kHz, the damping will be very efficient at temperatures 4 ≤ T ≤ 7 MeV where the bulk viscosity might affect the evolution of the post-merger object.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗