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DOE OSTI2025

Transformation rate maps of dissolved organic carbon in the contiguous US

Riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) plays a vital role in regional and global carbon cycles. However, the processes of DOC conversion from soil organic carbon (SOC) and leaching into rivers are insufficiently understood, inconsistently represented, and poorly parameterized, particularly in land surface and Earth system models. As a first attempt to fill this gap, we propose a generic formula that directly connects SOC concentration with DOC concentration in headwater streams, where a single parameter, the transformation rate from SOC in the soil to DOC leaching flux (P r ), accounts for the overall processes governing SOC conversion to DOC and leaching from soils (along with runoff) into headwater streams. We then derive high-resolution P r maps over the contiguous US (CONUS) using SOC data from two different sources: the Harmonized World Soil Database v1.2 (HWSD) and SoilGrids 2.0. Both maps are developed following the same five major steps: (1) selecting independent catchments where observed riverine DOC data are available with reasonable quality; (2) estimating catchment-average SOC for the independent catchments; (3) estimating the P r values for these catchments based on the generic formula and catchment-average SOC; (4) developing a predictive model of P r with machine learning (ML) techniques and catchment-scale climate, hydrology, geology, and other attributes; and (5) deriving a national map of P r based on the ML model. For evaluation, we compare the DOC concentration derived using the P r map and the observed DOC concentration values at evaluation catchments. The resulting mean absolute scaled error and coefficient of determination are 0.73 and 0.47 for the HWSD-based model and 0.58 and 0.72 for the SoilGrids-based model, respectively, suggesting the effectiveness of the overall methodology. Efforts to constrain uncertainty and evaluate sensitivity of P r to different factors are discussed. To illustrate the use of such maps, we derive a riverine DOC concentration reanalysis dataset over CONUS. The two P r maps, robustly derived and empirically validated, lay a critical cornerstone for better simulating the terrestrial carbon cycle in land surface and Earth system models. Our findings not only set a foundation for improving our predictive understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle at the regional and global scales, but also hold promises for informing policy decisions related to decarbonization and climate change mitigation. The data presented in this study are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14563816 (Li et al., 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

A fast and robust computational modeling approach for density and shape predictions in powder metallurgy hot isostatic pressing

Powder metallurgy hot isostatic pressing (PM-HIP) is an advanced manufacturing process that produces near-net-shape parts with high material utilization and uniform microstructures. PM-HIP is frequently used for producing small-scale parts with complicated geometries and is potentially economical for producing large-scale parts. However, excessive post-HIP shape distortions can reduce its effectiveness and economic advantage, especially for larger parts. A PM-HIP computational model can predict and help mitigate these distortions. However, due to complex deformation mechanisms and thermo-mechanical coupling present in PM-HIP processes, these non-linear computational models sometimes become numerically unstable. The numerical instabilities in these models can lead to very slow convergence or no convergence at all, which often translates to slow and unreliable models. These limitations are more pronounced in large models with complicated geometries. Hence, in this work, an alternative modeling approach is presented that improves numerical stability and computational performance. The presented approach achieves these improvements through approximating the fully coupled thermo-mechanical PM-HIP model as a decoupled model and adding inertial damping to the model’s mechanical part. In conclusion, a comparison with the fully coupled model indicated a slight dip in prediction accuracy (<5% error) but significant improvements in numerical stability (>20 times larger time step size) and computational performance (5-10 times speed-up with less computational resource usage) when using the presented approach.

Hot isostatic pressing↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for Soil Oxygen Dynamics: A Key Mediator of Tile Drainage Impacts on Coupled Hydrological, Biogeochemical, and Crop Systems

Tile drainage removes excess water and is an essential, widely adopted management practice to enhance crop productivity in the US Midwest and throughout the world. Tile drainage has been shown to significantly change hydrological and biogeochemical cycles by lowering the water table and reducing the residence time of soil water, although examining the complex interactions and feedbacks in an integrated hydrology–biogeochemistry–crop system remains elusive. Oxygen dynamics are critical to unraveling these interactions and have been ignored or oversimplified in existing models. Understanding these impacts is essential, particularly so because tile drainage has been highlighted as an adaptation under projected wetter springs and drier summers in the changing climate in the US Midwest. We used the ecosys model that uniquely incorporates first-principle soil oxygen dynamics and crop oxygen uptake mechanisms to quantify the impacts of tile drainage on hydrological and biogeochemical cycles and crop growth in corn–soybean rotation fields. The model was validated with data from a multi-treatment, multi-year experiment in Washington, IA. The relative root mean square error (rRMSE) for the corn and soybean yield in validation is 5.66 % and 12.57 %, respectively. The Pearson coefficient (r) of the monthly tile flow during the growing season is 0.78. Plant oxygen stress turns out as an emergent property of the equilibrium between the soil oxygen supply and biological demand. The impact of tile drainage on the system is achieved through a series of coupled feedback mechanisms. The model results show that tile drainage reduces the soil water content and enhances soil oxygenation. It additionally increases the subsurface discharge and elevates inorganic nitrogen leaching, with seasonal variations influenced by climate and crop phenology. The improved aerobic condition alleviates crop oxygen stress during wet springs, thereby promoting crop root growth during the early growth stage. The development of greater root density, in turn, mitigates water stress during dry summers, leading to an overall increase in the crop yield by ∼6 %. These functions indicate the potential of tile drainage in bolstering crop resilience to climate change and the use of this modeling tool for large-scale assessments of tile drainage. The model reveals the underlying causal mechanisms that drive the agroecosystem response to drainage on the coupled hydrology, biogeochemistry, and crop system dynamics.

Modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Soil oxygen dynamics: a key mediator of tile drainage impacts on coupled hydrological, biogeochemical, and crop systems

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cosmic axions revealed via amplified modulation of the ellipticity of a laser

We propose a new axion dark matter detection strategy that employs optical readout of laser beam ellipticity modulations caused by axion-induced electric fields in a microwave cavity, using electro-optic (EO) crystals, enhanced by externally injected radio-frequency (rf) power. Building upon the variance-based probing method [Phys. Rev. D 107, 103005 (2023).], we extend this concept to the optical domain: A weak probe laser interacts with an EO crystal coupled to the resonant microwave cavity field at cryogenic temperatures, and the axion-induced electric field is revealed through induced ellipticity. The injected rf signal coherently interferes with that of the axion field, amplifying the optical response and significantly improving sensitivity. While our EO-based method employs a Fabry-Pérot resonator, we do not require Michelson interferometers. Our method, hence, enables compact, high-frequency axion searches, across the 0.5–50 GHz range. Operating at cryogenic temperatures not only suppresses thermal backgrounds, but, critically, allows the probing method to mitigate the quantum noise. This approach offers a scalable path forward for axion detection over the ∼(few−200) μ⁢eV mass range—covering the preferred parameter space for the postinflationary Peccei-Quinn axion dark matter—using compact, tunable systems.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

How does uncertainty of soil organic carbon stock affect the calculation of carbon budgets and soil carbon credits for croplands in the U.S. Midwest?

Cropland carbon budget depicts the amount of carbon flowing in and out of agroecosystems and the changes in carbon stocks of soil and living biomass during the same period. Soil carbon credit is the additional change in soil carbon stock under certain farming practices compared with the business-as-usual practices. Accurately calculating cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit is critical to assessing climate change mitigation potential in agroecosystems. The calculation of cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit is sensitive to local soil and climatic conditions, especially initial soil organic carbon (SOC) stock, which is determined by both SOC concentration (SOC%) and bulk density (Bulk_Density). SOC stock data are either from soil sampling or gridded public survey data. In agroecosystem models, SOC stock data are a key model input for quantifying cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit. However, various types and degrees of uncertainties exist in SOC stock datasets, which propagate to the quantification of SOC stock change. In particular, a large discrepancy is found in two widely used SOC stock datasets — Rapid Carbon Assessment dataset (RaCA) and Gridded Soil Survey Geographic Database (gSSURGO) — in the U.S. Midwest, with a relative difference (quantified using Normalized Root Mean Square Error, NRMSE) of 48.0% for 0–30 cm SOC stock between the two datasets. It remains largely unclear how uncertainty in SOC stocks affects the calculation of cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit. To address this question, we used a well-validated process-based agroecosystem model, ecosys, to assess the impacts of SOC stock uncertainty on carbon budget and soil carbon credit calculation in the U.S. Midwestern corn-soybean rotation systems. Our results reveal the following findings: (1) A sizable discrepancy exists in simulated cropland carbon budget between using gSSURGO and using RaCA for their SOC% and Bulk_Density as model inputs, with a Pearson correlation coefficient (r) of only 0.4 for simulated change of SOC stock (ΔSOC) using these two different soil datasets. (2) Simulated cropland carbon budget components were more sensitive to initial SOC% than to Bulk_Density. For example, the upper and lower quartiles of multi-year averaged ΔSOC were –29.8 and 4.8 gC/m 2 /year for the selected counties respectively, with an uncertainty of 13.7 and 0.7 gC/m 2 /year induced by uncertainties in initial SOC% and Bulk_Density, respectively. (3) Both simulated ΔSOC and its uncertainty were negatively correlated with initial SOC%, whereas ΔSOC was negatively correlated with air temperature, and ΔSOC uncertainty was positively correlated with air temperature. (4) The uncertainty of calculated soil carbon credits was much smaller compared with the uncertainty of calculated absolute carbon budgets assuming the same SOC stock uncertainty level in the inputs. Specifically, in our assessment comparing planting cover crops vs no cover crop, the uncertainty of calculated soil carbon credits induced by initial SOC% uncertainty was less than 4% (relative to the quantified value of the soil carbon credits) for 90% of the cases. Our analysis highlights that high accuracy measurement of SOC% as inputs is needed for the calculation of cropland carbon budgets; however, soil carbon credit quantification is much less sensitive to the initial SOC% inputs, and the current publicly available soil datasets (e.g., gSSURGO) are largely suitable for the calculation of soil

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coupled Cluster Study of the Heats of Formation of UF 6 and the Uranium Oxyhalides, UO 2 X 2 (X = F, Cl, Br, I, and At)

The atomization enthalpies of the U(VI) species UF6 and the uranium oxyhalides UO 2 X 2 (X=F, Cl, Br, I, At) were calculated using a composite relativistic Feller-Peterson-Dixon (FPD) approach based on scalar relativistic DKH3-CCSD(T) with extrapolations to the CBS limit. The inherent multideterminantal nature of the U atom was mitigated by utilizing the singly charged atomic cation in all calculations with correction back to the neutral asymptote via the accurate ionization energy of the U atom. The effects of SO coupling were recovered using full 4-component CCSD(T) with contributions due to the Gaunt Hamiltonian calculated using Dirac-Hartree-Fock. The final atomization enthalpy for UF 6 (752.2 kcal/mol) was within 2.5 kcal/mol of the experimental value, but unfortunately the latter carries a ±2.4 kcal/mol uncertainty that is predominantly due to the experimental uncertainty in the formation enthalpy of U atom. The analogous value for UO 2 F 2 (607.6 kcal/mol) was in nearly exact agreement with experiment, but the latter has a stated experimental uncertainty of ±4.3 kcal/mol. The FPD atomization enthalpy for UO 2 Cl 2 (540.4 kcal/mol) was within the experimental error limits of ±5.5 kcal/mol. FPD atomization energies for the non-U-containing molecules (used for reaction enthalpies) H 2 O and HX (X=F, Cl, Br, I, At) were within at most 0.3 kcal/mol of their experimental values where available. The FPD atomization enthalpies, together with FPD reaction enthalpies for two different reactions, were used to determine heats of formation for all species of this work with estimated uncertainties of ±4 kcal/mol. The calculated heat of formation for UF 6 (-511.0 kcal/mol) is within 2.5 kcal/mol of the accurately-known (±0.45 kcal/mol) experimental value.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Power Flow Models of Grid-Forming Inverters in Unbalanced Distribution Grids

Load unbalance in electric distribution systems is unavoidable. Unbalanced load currents will lead to negative sequence (NS) voltages that may damage electric equipment. Unbalanced power flow analysis is a common tool to detect and mitigate NS voltage issues and requires accurate models of grid components. While traditional source models are available, grid-forming (GFM) inverter models are not well developed. GFM inverters implement various control strategies, which affect their power flow models. Here, in this paper, a novel GFM inverter model considering control effects is proposed. We show that for some control methods, unbalanced system loading will lead to unbalanced terminal voltages of the GFM inverters, which are modeled through an equivalent negative sequence impedance. The proposed models are initially validated using a simple test circuit. Then, they are applied in the power flow analysis on the IEEE 13-bus and 34-bus systems to demonstrate the accuracy improvement over the state-of-the-art. Using time-domain simulations as benchmarks, we show that the proposed models reduce the calculation error of negative sequence voltages by at least 25% in unbalanced distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Lefschetz thimble quantum Monte Carlo for spin systems

Monte Carlo simulations are useful tools for modeling quantum systems, but in some cases they suffer from a sign problem, leading to an exponential slow down in their convergence to a value. While solving the sign problem is generically NP hard, many techniques exist for mitigating the sign problem in specific cases; in particular, the technique of deforming the Monte Carlo simulation's plane of integration onto Lefschetz thimbles (complex hypersurfaces of stationary phase) has seen significant success in the context of quantum field theories. We extend this methodology to spin systems by utilizing spin coherent state path integrals to reexpress the spin system's partition function in terms of continuous variables. Using some toy systems, we demonstrate its effectiveness at lessening the sign problem in this setting, despite the fact that the initial mapping to spin coherent states introduces its own sign problem. The standard formulation of the spin coherent path integral is known to make use of uncontrolled approximations; despite this, for large spins they are typically considered to yield accurate results, so it is somewhat surprising that our results show significant systematic errors. Furthermore, possibly of independent interest, our use of Lefschetz thimbles to overcome the intrinsic sign problem in spin coherent state path integral Monte Carlo enables a novel numerical demonstration of a breakdown in the spin coherent path integral.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utilization of Synthetic Near-Infrared Spectra via Generative Adversarial Network to Improve Wood Stiffness Prediction

Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy is widely used as a nondestructive evaluation (NDE) tool for predicting wood properties. When deploying NIR models, one faces challenges in ensuring representative training data, which large datasets can mitigate but often at a significant cost. Machine learning and deep learning NIR models are at an even greater disadvantage because they typically require higher sample sizes for training. In this study, NIR spectra were collected to predict the modulus of elasticity (MOE) of southern pine lumber (training set = 573 samples, testing set = 145 samples). To account for the limited size of the training data, this study employed a generative adversarial network (GAN) to generate synthetic NIR spectra. The training dataset was fed into a GAN to generate 313, 573, and 1000 synthetic spectra. The original and enhanced datasets were used to train artificial neural networks (ANNs), convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and light gradient boosting machines (LGBMs) for MOE prediction. Overall, results showed that data augmentation using GAN improved the coefficient of determination (R 2 ) by up to 7.02% and reduced the error of predictions by up to 4.29%. ANNs and CNNs benefited more from synthetic spectra than LGBMs, which only yielded slight improvement. All models showed optimal performance when 313 synthetic spectra were added to the original training data; further additions did not improve model performance because the quality of the datapoints generated by GAN beyond a certain threshold is poor, and one of the main reasons for this can be the size of the initial training data fed into the GAN. LGBMs showed superior performances than ANNs and CNNs on both the original and enhanced training datasets, which highlights the significance of selecting an appropriate machine learning or deep learning model for NIR spectral-data analysis. The results highlighted the positive impact of GAN on the predictive performance of models utilizing NIR spectroscopy as an NDE technique and monitoring tool for wood mechanical-property evaluation. Further studies should investigate the impact of the initial size of training data, the optimal number of generated synthetic spectra, and machine learning or deep learning models that could benefit more from data augmentation using GANs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Synthesis of CdZnTeSe single crystals for room temperature radiation detector fabrication: mitigation of hole trapping effects using a convolutional neural network

In this article, we report the growth of Cd 0.9 Zn 0.1 Te 0.97 Se 0.03 (CZTS) wide bandgap semiconductor single crystals for room temperature gamma-ray detection using a modified vertical Bridgman method. Charge transport properties measured in the radiation detectors, fabricated from the grown CZTS crystals, indicated signs of hole trapping. Hole traps inhibit high-resolution radiation detection especially for energetic gamma rays. Machine learning (ML) applications are gaining tremendous mpetus in improving device and sensor performance by compensating for limi tations arising from such intrinsic material properties. In this article, we describe a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) that has demonstrated remarkable efficiency in identifying the energy of a gamma photon detected by a CZTS detector. The CNN has been trained using simulated data that resemble output pulses from actual CZTS detectors when exposed to 662-keV gamma photons. The device properties required for the simulation have been derived from radiation detection measurements on a real Cd 0.9 Zn 0.1 Te 0.97 Se 0.03 detector fabricated in our laboratory. The CNN has been trained with detector pulses arising through photoelectric (PE) and Compton scattering (CS) separately. The percentage error in predicting the detected energies, within an extremely small duration of 0.28 ms, was found to be lower than 0.1% for gamma energies above 50 keV and for training datasets con taining PE and CS events separately. The CNN was also validated for a mixed PE and CS dataset to obtain a prediction error of 1%. Additionally, the effect of detector resolution on the efficiency of the CNN was also explored.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mitigating the noise of DESI mocks using analytic control variates

In order to address fundamental questions related to the expansion history of the Universe and its primordial nature with the next generation of galaxy experiments, we need to model reliably large-scale structure observables such as the correlation function and the power spectrum. Cosmological N-body simulations provide a reference through which we can test our models, but their output suffers from sample variance on large scales. Fortunately, this is the regime where accurate analytic approximations exist. To reduce the variance, which is key to making optimal use of these simulations, we can leverage the accuracy and precision of such analytic descriptions using Control Variates (CV). The power of control variates stems from utilizing inexpensive but highly correlated surrogates of the statistics one wishes to measure. The stronger the correlation between the surrogate and the statistic of interest, the larger the variance reduction delivered by the method. We apply two control variate formulations to mock catalogs generated in anticipation of upcoming data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) to test the robustness of its analysis pipeline. Our CV-reduced measurements offer a factor of 5-10 improvement in the measurement error compared with the raw measurements. We explore the relevant properties of the galaxy samples that dictate this reduction and comment on the improvements we find on some of the derived quantities relevant to Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Life-cycle environmental impacts of single-junction and tandem perovskite PVs: a critical review and future perspectives

For new technologies, such as perovskite solar cells (PSC), life cycle analysis (LCA) offers a fundamental framework for examining potential environmental, energy and health impacts and mitigation options before large-scale commercialization and for guiding improvements in development and production that further reduce their environmental footprint. However, credible LCA studies require actual process-based material, energy and emissions data, which may not exist before the technologies are commercially produced. Thus, the perovskite LCA literature is based on linear extrapolations of laboratory data. In this paper we critically reviewed the PSC LCA literature, explain the reasoning for a wide divergence of results, and determined which data apply to scalable industrial production, materials and processes. Our investigation probed into the formulation of each layer of a PSC device, and its potential for industrial scale fabrication. We found that electricity use is the main contributor to reported LCA results, explaining the large difference, ranging from 7.78 kWh to 1,460 kWh/m –2 , among various studies. Subsequently, we identified and discuss methodological errors in some of these estimates. In terms of life-cycle toxicity most of the reviewed LCA studies do not attribute any major overall toxicity impact to the presence of lead in the PSC devices. We also reviewed and critiqued studies describing “worst-case” scenarios of accidental release of lead into the environment, and, in spite of statements in those studies, we found them to be inconclusive. Lastly, we discussed end-of-life (EoL) management options for resource recovery and for minimizing environmental impacts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of a continuous synthesis process for carbamazepine using validated in-line Raman spectroscopy and kinetic modelling for disturbance simulation

Mitigation of failure modes in the continuous synthesis (CS) of a drug substance (DS) has the potential to widen the adoption of continuous manufacturing (CM) technologies by the pharmaceutical industry. Here, this work demonstrates the development of a robust continuous process for the synthesis of carbamazepine (CBZ), an essential medicine as per the World Health Organization (WHO), facilitated by kinetic modelling and monitored by in-line Raman spectroscopy. Accurate kinetic modelling and the use of validated process analytical technology (PAT) models for quantitative measurement were found to play an important role in developing CS of drug substances. Kinetic data for the formation of CBZ from iminostilbene (ISB) were collected by batch reaction sampling and high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis. A non-linear solver and iterative method was applied to determine two sets of Arrhenius parameters simultaneously for the reaction system by minimizing the standard error of the model fit. The start-up and dynamic equilibrium stages for the CS of CBZ using a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) were modelled based on the batch kinetic data and employed to optimize conversion and simulate process disturbances. An in-line Raman spectroscopy method was successfully developed, validated, and integrated to determine the concentrations of CBZ and ISB within the operating range for the CS. The CS kinetic model was evaluated experimentally from startup to dynamic equilibrium over 10 residence times with monitoring by HPLC and in-line Raman spectroscopy. The developed kinetic model in tandem with in-line Raman spectroscopy successfully predicted disturbances due to changes in process variables and can serve as a useful tool in the future design of advanced process control strategies for the continuous synthesis of CBZ.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs Results

Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells - increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells - and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. Data and supporting literature from a study describing a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable strategies for the mitigation of decreased heat and power production rates over time for geothermal power plants. The computational approach used enables translation of sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy and discovery of optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) along with machine learning models that predict temperature and pressure timeseries for production wells. We evaluate this approach using an "open-source" reservoir we have constructed that captures many of the characteristics of Brady Hot Springs, a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA. Selected results from a reservoir model of Brady Hot Springs itself are presented to show successful application to an existing system. In both cases, energy predictions prove to be highly accurate: all observed prediction errors do not exceed 3.68% for temperatures and 4.75% for pressures. In a cumulative energy estimation, we observe prediction errors that are less than 4.04%. A typical reservoir simulation for Brady Hot Springs completes in approximately 4 hours, whereas our machine learning models yield accurate 20-year predictions for temperatures, pressures, and produced energy in 0.9 seconds. This paper aims to demonstrate how the models and techniques from our study can be applied to achieve rapid exploration of controlled parameters and optimization of other geothermal reservoirs. Includes a synthetic, yet realistic, model of a geothermal reservoir, referred to as open-source reservoir (OSR). OSR is a 10-well (4 injection wells and 6 production wells) system that resembles Brady Hot Springs (a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA) at a high level but has a number of sufficiently modified characteristics (which renders any possible similarity between specific characteristics like temperatures and pressures as purely random). We study OSR through CMG simulations with a wide range of flow allocation scenarios. Includes a dataset with 101 simulated scenarios that cover the period of time between 2020 and 2040 and a link to the published paper about this project, where we focus on the Machine Learning work for predicting OSR's energy production based on the simulation data, as well as a link to the GitHub repository where we have published the code we have developed (please refer to the repository's readme file to see instructions on how to run the code). Additional links are included to associated work led by the USGS to identify geologic factors associated with well productivity in geothermal fields. Below are the high-level steps for applying the same modeling + ML process to other geothermal reservoirs: 1. Develop a geologic model of the geothermal field. The location of faults, upflow zones, aquifers, etc. need to be accounted for as accurately as possible 2. The geologic model needs to be converted to a reservoir model that can be used in a reservoir simulator, such as, for instance, CMG STARS, TETRAD, or FALCON 3. Using native state modeling, the initial temperature and pressure distributions are evaluated, and they become the initial conditions for dynamic reservoir simulations 4....

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improving Dark Energy Constraints Using Low-Redshift Large-Scale Structures

The primary goal of this project was to improve constraints on dark energy measurements by improving our ability to extract cosmological information from low redshift large-scale structures. PI Clowe's project's primary aim was to reduce the bias in measurements of the masses of clusters of galaxies to a level where the evolution of the cluster mass function can be used in the Vera Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time Dark Energy Science Collaboration survey to improve the accuracy of the measurement of dark energy and other cosmological parameters. Co-PI Seo's project studied observational systematics affecting large-scale clustering of galaxies, which will be used to improve dark energy constraints from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). The cluster lensing project employed a series of simulations and observations of clusters of galaxies to test numerous potential systematic errors in cluster mass measurements using weak gravitational lensing as the accuracy of current weak lensing measurements are more than order of magnitude worse than what is required to use clusters of galaxies for accurate determination of dark energy parameters. PI Clowe and group developed and analyzed simulations to test for, and correct biases introduced in, the weak lensing measurement process. Finally, PI Clowe and group developed a method of detecting clusters using galaxy overdensities and applied the method to the BLISS and DES surveys. The success of spectroscopic dark energy mission such as the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will depend on a thorough understanding of various observational systematics in the target density fluctuations that would give rise to spurious, non-cosmological signals. PI Seo and group developed a deep learning, artificial neural network (ANN) technique that modeled and mitigated such effects, aimed at deriving more robust galaxy clustering signals not only for the baryon acoustic oscillation feature and redshift-space distortions but also for primordial non-Gaussianity constraint.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Performance of Gaussian Plume and Backward Lagrangian Stochastic Models for Near-Field Methane Emission Estimation Using a Single Controlled Release Experiment

Methane (CH 4 ) is a major component of natural gas and a potent greenhouse gas. Increasing atmospheric methane concentrations are attributed to emissive anthropogenic activities by an average of 13 ppb per yr since 2020 and are linked to a changing global climate. Mitigating CH 4 emissions from oil and gas production sites has recently become a target to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions; however, monitoring the efficacy of mitigation strategies depends on accurate quantification of CH 4 emissions at the facility-level. Near-field quantification of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from oil and gas (O&G) facilities remains challenging due to the effects of atmospheric variability and sensor configuration on atmospheric dispersion models. This study evaluates the performance of two atmospheric dispersion models, the Gaussian plume (GP) and backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS), by comparing calculated CH 4 emissions to controlled single-point emissions between 0.4 and 5.2 kg CH 4 h −1 . Emissions were calculated by both models using 121 individual sets of measurements comprising five-minute averaged downwind methane mixing ratios and matching meteorological data. The comparison shows that the bLS approach achieved a higher proportion of emission estimates within a factor of two (FAC2) of the known emission rates compared to the GP approach. The emissions calculated by the bLS model also had a lower multiplicative error and reduced bias relative to GP. Other error-based metrics further confirmed the bLS model performed better, as it yielded lower RMSE and MAE than GP. Statistical analysis of the emission data shows that the lateral and vertical alignment of the source and the sensor plays a critical role in emission estimations, as measurements made closer to the plume centerline and at a distance between 40 and 80 m downwind yielded the best FAC2 agreement. High wind meander degraded the ability of both approaches to generate representative emissions, particularly with the GP approach, as it violates the modeling approach’s assumption of steady-state emissions. Data suggest emissions calculated by the bLS model are comprehensively in better agreement, but the computational demands of the modeling approach and integration into fenceline systems limit real-time applicability. While these results provide insight into model performance under controlled near-field conditions, their applicability to more complex or heterogeneous oil and gas production environments (e.g., the regions Marcellus or Unita Basins) remains limited and uncertain.

gaussian plume↗

DOE OSTI2023

Neural Networks-Based Inverter Control: Modeling and Adaptive Optimization for Smart Distribution Networks

The optimal voltage control of inverter-based resources, especially under the high penetration of solar photovoltaics, is critical to the stability of the distribution power system. However, the computational complexity as well as the coordinated operation performance of the voltage control optimization in the distribution power system limits the real-time applications. To mitigate this issue, a model-free based adaptive optimal control scheme for the smart inverter is proposed to maximize the active power generation, minimize the power loss, and maintain the bus voltages in smart distribution networks. An inverter-based optimization model for coordinated operation is first established, considering the uncertainties of renewable power generation. Subsequently, by collecting the data and control strategies, the neural networks (NNs) based algorithm is proposed to efficiently predict the best possible control strategy. The main objective of this scheme is to accurately predict candidate optimal solutions with near-negligible feasibility and optimization gaps, with the advantage of avoiding complicated iteration-based numerical algorithms. Thereafter, the co-simulation among OpenDSS, MATLAB, and Python is set up to fully take advantage of the three individual software. Experiments are conducted based on different control parameter characteristics and structures of NNs. Finally, the results reveal that an average mean squared error of 0.013 and 1 ms response time are achieved, which is lower than some state-of-the-art methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗