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DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Model Hub Height Wind Speed Performance Using DOE Lidar Buoy Data

As the offshore wind industry continues to gain momentum both in the U.S. and globally, reanalysis products remain essential tools for the lifecycle of a wind farm. From project siting and production estimates to determining construction and maintenance windows, reanalysis products play an important role. These regional and global long-term models also serve as inputs to higher resolution models. With such wide-ranging impacts on the offshore wind industry, the need for validation of reanalysis products is strong, particularly at typical turbine hub heights. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates two AXYS WindSentinelTM buoys for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in order to collect meteorological and oceanographic data, including hub height wind speed, in areas of interest for offshore wind development. This work uses DOE buoy observations off the coasts of New Jersey and Virginia to evaluate the performance of Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA-2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th generation (ERA5), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assimilation system Rapid Refresh (RAP). Biases and degrees of correspondence are determined for each reanalysis product in order to provide insights on the performance and uncertainty for long-term wind resource characterization. With the baseline metrics determined, this work proceeds with an investigation into the sources of large deviations between the modeled and observed hub height wind speeds during the East Coast lidar buoy deployments. Consistent sources of reanalysis model error include stably stratified flow conditions, high wind shear, flow parallel to the coastline, and tropical and winter storms. For the near shore New Jersey location, offshore winds (i.e. blowing from land to water) tend to be associated with model overestimation of observed hub height wind speed, while winds parallel to the coastline are correlated with model underestimation of wind speed. Similarly, near the Virginia buoy, during southerly winds (parallel to the coastline) models underestimate the observed wind speed due to coastal upwelling. Reanalysis model wind speeds underestimate the hub height winds with increasing stable atmospheric stratification. Reanalysis model biases are seen when the observed wind speeds approach or exceed typical turbine cut-out speeds (around 20 m s-1). Large model errors during winter and tropical storm events, high wind speed events, and ramp events are often the result of wind speed timing and magnitude offsets. Overall, ERA5 provides the most successful representation of observed offshore hub height wind speeds at the U.S. East Coast buoy locations and is therefore best suited as an input boundary condition for model case studies. ERA5 performs well for a variety of atmospheric phenomena, including storms and sea breezes, however RAP, the next most successful reanalysis model, performs best in capturing the frequency of ramp events.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying Uncertainties In Neutron-Alpha Scattering With Chiral Nucleon-Nucleon And Three-Nucleon Forces

We report that modern ab initio theory combined with high-quality nucleon-nucleon (NN) and three-nucleon (3N) interactions from chiral effective field theory (EFT) can provide a predictive description of low-energy light-nuclei reactions relevant for astrophysics and fusion-energy applications. However, the high cost of computations has so far impeded a complete analysis of the uncertainty budget of such calculations. Starting from NN potentials up to fifth order (N 4 LO) combined with leading-order 3N forces, we study how the order-by-order convergence of the chiral expansion and confidence intervals for the 3N contact and contact-plus-one-pion-exchange low-energy constants (c E and c D ) contribute to the overall uncertainty budget of many-body calculations of neutron- 4 He (n-α) elastic scattering. We compute structure and reaction observables for three-, four-, and five-nucleon systems within the ab initio frameworks of the no-core shell model and no-core shell model with continuum. Using a small set of design runs, we construct a Gaussian process model (GPM) that acts as a statistical emulator for the theory. With this, we gain insight into how uncertainties in the 3N low-energy constants propagate throughout the calculation and determine the Bayesian posterior distribution of these parameters with Markov-Chain Monte Carlo. We find rapidly converging n-α phase shifts with respect to the chiral order. With the adopted leading-order 3N force, calculations based on the NN interaction at N 4 LO of Entem, Machleidt, and Nosyk are unable to reproduce the experimental phase shifts in the 3/2 - channel within the estimated chiral truncation errors. Closer agreement with empirical data is found when using an older parametrization of the NN interaction at order N 3 LO, and the position and width of the P-wave resonances can be used to reduce the uncertainty of the 3N low-energy constants. The present results point to a lack of spin-orbit strength when the newer parametrization of the chiral NN force up to fifth order is combined with the leading-order 3N force. The inclusion of higher-order 3N-force terms may be required to recover the missing strength. GPMs can act as fast and accurate emulators of ab initio many-body calculations of low-energy scattering and reactions of light nuclei, opening the way to a robust quantification of theoretical uncertainties grounded in the description of the underlying chiral Hamiltonian.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Calculating Radiation Damage (DPA) from Transmutation Products

This is a poster for an INL poster session. Accurate models for radiation damage are crucial for predicting material performance in radiation environments. The uncertainty of state-of-the-art radiation damage models is large, contributing to excessive safety margins. A major source of this uncertainty is neglecting the effect that transmutation products have on radiation damage. Transmutation products are new nuclides formed by neutron activation during irradiation; they can contribute to radiation damage by additional neutron capture or decay events. Ignoring the contribution of transmutation products leads to a significant underprediction of the radiation damage (e.g., >10% error in 316 stainless steel). This underprediction is accounted for in part by adding larger safety margins to designs. Currently, the state of the art explicitly accounts for only a single transmutation product, namely nickel-59, during the radiation damage calculation. All other transmutation products are assumed to not contribute to the radiation damage, because there is currently no established method to systematically track all or a selection of radiation damage contributions of transmutation products during activation. In the case of nickel-59, the current method is to apply a precalculated correlation that cannot be used for any other nuclide and is largely dependent on all nuclear engineers being experts in this niche topic. This project proposed to methodically find other transmutation products that cause significant radiation damage, and then to develop a general framework for systematically tracking the radiation damage from these nuclides. This was accomplished by combining the radiation damage calculation into the transmutation calculation already performed for irradiated structural materials. The key idea of our framework is to introduce radiation-damage "pseudo-nuclides" to the list of nuclides used in the transmutation analysis. This allows radiation damage to be tracked alongside the creation and destruction of transmutation products. The main deliverable of this project is a general framework for computing radiation damage while the damaged material undergoes transmutation; this capability allows a significantly more accurate estimation of radiation damage, and in turn reduce required safety margins thereby reducing the cost to construct reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Direct Measurement of the Nickel Spectrum in Cosmic Rays in the Energy Range from 8.8 GeV/$\mathcal{n}$ to 240 GeV/$\mathcal{n}$ with CALET on the International Space Station

The relative abundance of cosmic ray nickel nuclei with respect to iron is by far larger than for all other transiron elements; therefore it provides a favorable opportunity for a low background measurement of its spectrum. Since nickel, as well as iron, is one of the most stable nuclei, the nickel energy spectrum and its relative abundance with respect to iron provide important information to estimate the abundances at the cosmic ray source and to model the Galactic propagation of heavy nuclei. However, only a few direct measurements of cosmic-ray nickel at energy larger than ~ 3 GeV/n are available at present in the literature, and they are affected by strong limitations in both energy reach and statistics. In this Letter, we present a measurement of the differential energy spectrum of nickel in the energy range from 8.8 to 240 GeV/n , carried out with unprecedented precision by the Calorimetric Electron Telescope (CALET) in operation on the International Space Station since 2015. The CALET instrument can identify individual nuclear species via a measurement of their electric charge with a dynamic range extending far beyond iron (up to atomic number Z = 40 ). The particle’s energy is measured by a homogeneous calorimeter (1.2 proton interaction lengths, 27 radiation lengths) preceded by a thin imaging section (3 radiation lengths) providing tracking and energy sampling. This Letter follows our previous measurement of the iron spectrum [O. Adriani et al. (CALET Collaboration), Phys. Rev. Lett. 126, 241101 (2021).], and it extends our investigation on the energy dependence of the spectral index of heavy elements. It reports the analysis of nickel data collected from November 2015 to May 2021 and a detailed assessment of the systematic uncertainties. In the region from 20 to 240 GeV/n our present data are compatible within the errors with a single power law with spectral index -2.51 ± 0.07 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

BEYONDPLANCK XI. Bayesian CMB analysis with sample-based end-to-end error propagation

We present posterior sample-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) constraints from Planck LFI and WMAP observations as derived through global end-to-end Bayesian processing within the BeyondPlanck framework. We first use these samples to study correlations between CMB, foreground, and instrumental parameters, and we identify a particularly strong degeneracy between CMB temperature fluctuations and free-free emission on intermediate angular scales (400 ≲ ℓ ≲ 600), which is mitigated through model reduction, masking, and resampling. We compare our posterior-based CMB results with previous Planck products, and find generally good agreement, although with notably higher noise due to our exclusion of HFI data. We find a best-fit CMB dipole amplitude of 3362.7 ± 1.4 µK, in excellent agreement with previous Planck results. The quoted dipole uncertainty is derived directly from the sampled posterior distribution, and does not involve any ad hoc contributions for Planck instrumental systematic effects. Similarly, we find a temperature quadrupole amplitude of ${σ}_{2}^{TT}$ = 229 ± 97 µK 2 , which is in good agreement with previous results in terms of the amplitude, but the uncertainty is an order of magnitude larger than the naive diagonal Fisher uncertainty. Relatedly, we find lower evidence for a possible alignment between the quadrupole and octopole than previously reported due to a much larger scatter in the individual quadrupole coefficients, caused both by marginalizing over a more complete set of systematic effects, but also by our more conservative analysis mask required to mitigate the free-free degeneracy. For higher multipoles, we find that the angular temperature power spectrum is generally in good agreement with both Planck and WMAP. At the same time, we note that this is the first time the sample-based asymptotically exact Blackwell-Rao estimator has been successfully established for multipoles up to ℓ ≤ 600, and it now accounts for the majority of the cosmologically important information. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the unique capabilities of the Bayesian approach with respect to end-to-end systematic uncertainty propagation, and we believe it can and should play an important role in the analysis of future CMB experiments. Cosmological parameter constraints are presented in a companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Detection of Outliers in LiDAR Data Acquired by Multiple Platforms over Sorghum and Maize

High-resolution point cloud data acquired with a laser scanner from any platform contain random noise and outliers. Therefore, outlier detection in LiDAR data is often necessary prior to analysis. Applications in agriculture are particularly challenging, as there is typically no prior knowledge of the statistical distribution of points, plant complexity, and local point densities, which are crop-dependent. The goals of this study were first to investigate approaches to minimize the impact of outliers on LiDAR acquired over agricultural row crops, and specifically for sorghum and maize breeding experiments, by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a wheel-based ground platform; second, to evaluate the impact of existing outliers in the datasets on leaf area index (LAI) prediction using LiDAR data. Two methods were investigated to detect and remove the outliers from the plant datasets. The first was based on surface fitting to noisy point cloud data via normal and curvature estimation in a local neighborhood. The second utilized the PointCleanNet deep learning framework. Both methods were applied to individual plants and field-based datasets. To evaluate the method, an F-score was calculated for synthetic data in the controlled conditions, and LAI, the variable being predicted, was computed both before and after outlier removal for both scenarios. Results indicate that the deep learning method for outlier detection is more robust than the geometric approach to changes in point densities, level of noise, and shapes. The prediction of LAI was also improved for the wheel-based vehicle data based on the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the residuals before and after the removal of outliers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Solar Energy Resource for Puerto Rico

After Hurricane Maria, multiple U.S. Department of Energy laboratories studied the state of the electric grid in Puerto Rico and analyzed grid resilience and grid integration of renewable energy. As part of the work done at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, researchers created new solar resource data, conducted a technical potential and supply curve analysis, and studied the interannual variability of the solar resource. A new methodology was developed to downscale solar resource data from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) from a 4-km x 4-km spatial and 30-minute temporal resolution to a 2 km x 2 km and 5-minute resolution. This methodology primarily used simple physical principles to develop high-resolution cloud properties which were then used to compute solar radiation. The high-resolution datasets were validated against ground measurements and the error metrics were found to be similar to the original lower resolution dataset. Using 20 years of downscaled data from the NSRDB multi-year capacity factors for photovoltaics (PV) were developed for both single-axis tracking and fixed latitude-tilt configurations. Use of the multi-year data provides the ability to understand variability in capacity factors due to variability in weather over a long period of time. For Puerto Rico the coastal regions were found to have significant higher capacity factors than inland. Using land-use and terrain information a technical potential analysis was conducted for Puerto Rico. This analysis restricted single PV plant development to a maximum of 100 MW nameplate capacity. The nameplate capacity for each municipality were then determined. Based on our assumptions, 56 of the 78 total municipalities of Puerto Rico contain some level of solar capacity. Most of the interior municipalities did not have any capacity because of the geographic exclusions used in this study. The lowest capacity for a PV plant observed in a municipality was 10 MW. The maximum capacity within a county was 2,000 MW. Further a supply curve analysis was conducted by taking the results of the technical potential and quantifying system and transmission costs. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated for each theoretical PV plant site, and the levelized cost of transmission was added to the LCOE to produce a total cost estimate for each site. The results of the supply curve analysis allow for a relative comparison of the cost for integrating new PV capacity into the grid. This analysis indicates that cheaper total LCOE sites tend to be larger in capacity. The total capacity in this study was found to be far beyond the maximum peak load for the island. However, this study does not consider the economic and market potential for development. The cumulative capacity presented in this study assumes that the best locations are developed first and ignores the complex decision paths for new power plant development. Therefore, this analysis can only be treated as illustrative. Finally this study investigates the impact of inter-annual variability of resource using a variety of metrices including probability of exceedance and variation in capacity factor and LCOE. This study demonstrates that the capacity factor or LCOE could vary by over 10% year to year. This clearly indicates the risks involved in using any particular year of data and clearly points to the use of multi-year data to reduce some of the risks related to variability in weather.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design Report on the MiniFuel Instrumented Test Apparatus for Understanding Radiation Effects

Most nuclear fuels irradiations at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) over the past decade have been conducted using MiniFuel—a static capsule design employing subscale fuel specimens to collect separate-effects irradiated fuel performance data. Irradiation conditions for MiniFuel experiments are predicted pre-test using reactor physics, and thermal models are verified post-irradiation via SiC dilatometry and various spectrometry methods. Relevant fuel performance parameters are also observed post-irradiation in a hot cell, thereby providing a single data point for each parameter representing the cumulative effects of the irradiation conditions. Substantially more data can be harvested from a single test and within a shorter duration by instrumenting irradiation vehicles and measuring desired quantities in situ. This report presents the design and analysis of the MiniFuel INstrumented Irradiation Test Apparatus for Understanding Radiation Effects (MINITAURE)—an instrumented test rig based on the separate-effects MiniFuel concept that aims to capture fission gas release (FGR) and thermal conductivity degradation of fuel specimens during irradiation in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). MINITAURE will be integrated with the Materials Irradiation Facility (MIF) located in the HFIR building outside the reactor containment. The MIF will act as the instrumentation and control center for the experiment, enabling real-time feedback from in situ sensors and control of irradiation temperatures via a gas delivery system. Two unique capsule designs were developed to capture each phenomenon: the thermal conductivity capsule, which uses a thermopile method to estimate fuel specimen thermal conductivity, and the fission gas release capsule, which will have continuous flowing gas communication to high-purity germanium detectors that are housed in the MIF for monitoring FGR. This report details the reactor physics and heat transfer modeling activities that were used to inform the experiment design and predict capsule performance. It also describes out-of-pile activities conducted to stand up this new capability and verify the measurement techniques. Modeling efforts to date have demonstrated the feasibility of the in situ measurement techniques and supported the development of the MINITAURE assembly configuration. Out-of-pile testing of the thermal conductivity measurement shows promise in capturing relative changes in thermal conductivity. However, significant errors exist in the measured absolute value, posing a need for further refinement.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

How Wrong Can the Operational AEP Uncertainty Estimate Be When We Ignore the Correlations Between the Uncertainty Components?

Calculations of wind farm annual energy production (AEP) on operational data are essential for a variety of financial transactions during the life of wind plants. The AEP estimate is associated with an uncertainty value, which is calculated by combining contributions connected to on-site measurements, long-term reference measurements, losses, regression, windiness adjustment, and wind resource interannual variability. Although very limited documentation on the topic exists, the conventional approach currently used by the wind energy community to assess the uncertainty connected to the operational AEP estimate assume that the different uncertainty components are uncorrelated and therefore calculates the overall uncertainty with a sum of squares approach. In this analysis, we contrast the traditional technique to estimate the overall AEP uncertainty by ignoring the correlation between its different components with a novel Monte Carlo based approach, which can instead take into account the correlation between different uncertainty categories. We consider monthly operational data from 472 wind farms from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 923 database to assess the difference between the two approaches. Long-term wind speed data needed for the AEP assessment are taken from three reanalysis products: the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications v2 (MERRA-2), the European Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction v2 (NCEP-2). The results of the Monte Carlo approach show that three pairs of AEP uncertainty components do show a statistically significant correlation: the uncertainty connected with wind resource inter-annual variability is positively correlated with the one related to the windiness correction and negatively correlated with the one due to the regression, and the wind measurement uncertainty is positively correlated with the regression uncertainty. All these correlations, which are found between uncertainty components which are not only part of an operational analysis, but also of a wind resource assessment, are currently ignored in the conventional techniques used as industry standard. We further investigate the causes of these correlations, in terms of common dependencies of different uncertainty components on wind resource variability, number of data points, and quality of the regression between wind speed and energy production data. Next, we quantify the error in the current industry standard technique, in terms of the percentage difference in total uncertainty calculated with the two considered approaches, for all the analyzed wind farms. We find a mean absolute percentage difference of about 6%, with the largest differences being greater than 20%. The data clearly confirm that ignoring the actual correlation between the uncertainty components can lead to large errors in the assessment of the operational AEP uncertainty, and the proposed Monte Carlo approach should be preferred.

Monte Carlo↗

DOE OSTI2023

Blockchain for Fault-Tolerant Grid Operations

Radial topology and vast geographic coverage make distribution systems prone to widespread power outages upon the failure of a single (or multiple) upstream component. Fault-handling algorithms depend heavily on correct estimations of the system’s state to effectively isolate the affected area and reduce the number of affected customers while maintaining operational safety. The work described here leverages the core features of distributed, consensus-based decision-making processes and the immutability of blockchain, and demonstrates their value in improving fault-tolerant grid operations. In this work, blockchain was used to create a trusted data-sharing platform that enables independent actors to reconstruct the system state; this enables distributed resources to make intelligent decisions with limited knowledge. Although the process requires data sharing, its algorithms have been designed to limit the amount of private information that is exchanged, which helps preserve business-sensitive data and maintain customer privacy. In addition, by reducing the information that must be shared, the communication requirements are also reduced; (however, an in-depth analysis of the communication requirements is beyond the scope of this project). The proposed use cases are intended to represent a foundational basis for third parties to develop functional solutions that can eventually be deployed in the field. To further provide guidance, the envisioned use cases have incorporated design requirements that consider the blockchain characteristics and a need to limit information from surrounding resources, which preserve the assumption and the possibility that such resources could belong to different entities. This report presents a detailed design of the three use cases with the tools needed to enable the analysis being tested. The implemented gross error detection method can detect mismatches when the error exceeds 3.8 times the sensor’s rated accuracy. Detection of the circuit breaker state successfully identified the correct states across all simulation tests. A distribution-system power-flow solution in the simulator OpenDSS generally possesses a convergency tolerance of 0.01% on the voltage magnitude. The evaluation of possible reconnection using voltage magnitude—preserving the data ownership—has a voltage magnitude difference smaller than 0.001% from the OpenDSS result. The results preserving data ownership have a difference within the expected power flow tolerance with full knowledge of the system, which surpasses expectations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Temporal Error Correlations in a Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Model Derived by Comparison to Carbon Dioxide Eddy Covariance Flux Tower Measurements

Abstract Atmospheric CO 2 flux inversions require as input an estimate of spatial and temporal correlations of errors in their estimate of the prior mean. Some previous studies have used the differences in CO 2 daily average flux estimates produced by terrestrial carbon cycle models and eddy covariance measurements to constrain the flux error correlations. Since inversions are starting to resolve the daily cycle, we set out to examine the correlations at sub‐daily time scales, as well as the correlations across years. To this end, we examine the autocorrelations in the difference between net ecosystem‐atmosphere exchange measurements from 75 AmeriFlux towers and temporally downscaled high‐spatial‐resolution flux estimates from the Carnegie‐Ames‐Stanford Approach (CASA) terrestrial carbon cycle model. We find that the daily cycle is prominent in these hourly autocorrelations and that these autocorrelations persist across years. We propose a family of functions to model these temporal correlations in atmospheric inversions, and use cross validation to determine which of the correlation functions best fits autocorrelation data from towers not in the training set. Correlation functions with a component that attempts to model the daily cycle in the differences match correlations from other towers better than those without. Those models that reproduce the same correlation structures at 1‐year intervals while modulating the amplitudes of the correlations between those intervals improve the fit still further.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Stochastic Variability in Multiband Time-series Data

In preparation for the era of time-domain astronomy with upcoming large-scale surveys, we propose a state-space representation of a multivariate damped random walk process as a tool to analyze irregularly-spaced multifilter light curves with heteroscedastic measurement errors. We adopt a computationally efficient and scalable Kalman filtering approach to evaluate the likelihood function, leading to maximum O(k 3 n) complexity, where k is the number of available bands and n is the number of unique observation times across the k bands. This is a significant computational advantage over a commonly used univariate Gaussian process that can stack up all multiband light curves in one vector with maximum O(k 3 n 3 ) complexity. Using such efficient likelihood computation, we provide both maximum likelihood estimates and Bayesian posterior samples of the model parameters. Three numerical illustrations are presented: (i) analyzing simulated five-band light curves for a comparison with independent single-band fits; (ii) analyzing five-band light curves of a quasar obtained from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 to estimate short-term variability and timescale; (iii) analyzing gravitationally lensed g- and r-band light curves of Q0957+561 to infer the time delay. Two R packages, Rdrw and timedelay, are publicly available to fit the proposed models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Software Quality Assurance for EBR-II Fuels Irradiation and Physics Database (FIPD)

The Fuels Irradiation and Physics Database (FIPD) is an ongoing DOE project on archival of the EBR-II metal-alloy fuel irradiation experiments. As part of its use in support of license applications, the Quality Assurance Program Plan (QAPP) was drafted and endorsed by NRC in an effort to demonstrate its compliance with regulatory expectations. Software Quality Assurance (SQA) for the physics portion of FIPD is intended to qualify the calculated quantities such as fuel and cladding temperatures, neutron fluence and axially varying burnup estimates for irradiated fuel elements. This report covers the initial evaluation of SQA status of three neutron physics and thermo-fluid codes (REBUS, RCT and SE2RCT) that form the basis of calculated quantities for as-irradiated characteristics of the tested metallic fuel elements. The report also introduces an SQA plan to address the identified deficiencies. The REBUS, RCT, and SE2RCT codes are all part of the Argonne Reactor Code (ARC) code system. There is considerable knowledge and experience on REBUS and RCT but relatively less on SE2RCT. During FY2021, efforts focused on an assessment of how the data in the EBR-II Physics and Analysis DataBase (PADB) is generated with SE2RCT and used in FIPD. Additional tasks included considerations of uncertainties for power estimates in REBUS and RCT calculations and their impact on the combined RCT methodology. The RCT software usage in FIPD was assessed this year and the input/output details studied. A “requirements” document was created that identifies the key features of the RCT software being used in FIPD that need to have SQA documentation. A brief discussion on the history of RCT and its input is included in this report along with the basic SQA roadmap laid out in the requirements document. The SE2RCT software usage in FIPD is still being studied noting that there is no current manual. As part of the work done this year, two bugs were identified in the SE2RCT software which have a minor impact on the accuracy of the results it produces. No requirements document has been created, but one identified feature of SE2RCT being used that needs verification was its fuel pin temperature calculation. The work completed this year confirms that the approximations which will be included in the software verification report for SE2RCT are accurate. In addition to software quality assurance work for RCT and SE2RCT, an automated verification framework is proposed to simplify the software quality assurance process. The purpose of this framework is to streamline code verification and documentation while minimizing repetitive tasks for code developers and reviewers. The reduction of repeated input (between reference solution, software, and documentation input) throughout the SQA process reduces potential for human errors during the preparation of the supporting software quality records. The automation of the verification and documentation process proposed for this project leverages the existing verification structure already in place for the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 code.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning surrogate of physics-based building-stock simulator for end-use load forecasting

Building energy models are used to simulate heat and mass transfer and estimate end-use load in buildings. With the proliferation of solar photovoltaics on residential and commercial buildings, increasingly, buildings are expected to provide grid services, for which accurate and computationally efficient building energy simulations and end-use load prediction are imperative. Existing building energy simulation tools, however, have significant computational overhead that make them less practical in real-time deployment for optimization, design, uncertainty quantification and control in building energy management systems. Here this article presents a data-driven machine learning model based on light gradient boosting method (LightGBM) as a surrogate for a physics-based simulator for residential buildings to predict end-use load. The machine learning based surrogate model accounts for time-series related variables, seasonality and trend component of end-use load, and history of end-use load. The accuracy of the surrogate model is assessed on the prediction of the load profiles of 100 different houses in Cook County, Illinois, USA. The LightGBM surrogate model is shown to reduce the root-mean-squared error by 53% relative to a reference decision tree (DT) based model reported previously in the literature. Moreover, the model predicts the load spikes and high-ramp rate events throughout the year which are often the Achilles heel of other models in the literature. The machine learning based surrogate model is demonstrated to be computationally efficient, with a ten-fold reduction in the computational time compared to a physics-based building energy simulation, and suitable for uncertainty analysis and real-time control of building characteristics in response to uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Healthcare Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe. Our goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions. We developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground. Forecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs. Real-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Recovered supernova Ia rate from simulated LSST images

Aims.TheVera C. RubinObservatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will revolutionize time-domain astronomy by detecting millions of different transients. In particular, it is expected to increase the number of known type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) by a factor of 100 compared to existing samples up to redshift ∼1.2. Such a high number of events will dramatically reduce statistical uncertainties in the analysis of the properties and rates of these objects. However, the impact of all other sources of uncertainty on the measurement of the SN Ia rate must still be evaluated. The comprehension and reduction of such uncertainties will be fundamental both for cosmology and stellar evolution studies, as measuring the SN Ia rate can put constraints on the evolutionary scenarios of different SN Ia progenitors. Methods.We used simulated data from the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) Data Challenge 2 (DC2) and LSST Data Preview 0 to measure the SN Ia rate on a 15 deg 2 region of the “wide-fast-deep” area. We selected a sample of SN candidates detected in difference images, associated them to the host galaxy with a specially developed algorithm, and retrieved their photometric redshifts. We then tested different light-curve classification methods, with and without redshift priors (albeit ignoring contamination from other transients, as DC2 contains only SN Ia). We discuss how the distribution in redshift measured for the SN candidates changes according to the selected host galaxy and redshift estimate. Results.We measured the SN Ia rate, analyzing the impact of uncertainties due to photometric redshift, host-galaxy association and classification on the distribution in redshift of the starting sample. We find that we are missing 17% of the SN Ia, on average, with respect to the simulated sample. As 10% of the mismatch is due to the uncertainty on the photometric redshift alone (which also affects classification when used as a prior), we conclude that this parameter is the major source of uncertainty. We discuss possible reduction of the errors in the measurement of the SN Ia rate, including synergies with other surveys, which may help us to use the rate to discriminate different progenitor models.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Redshift-dependent RSD bias from intrinsic alignment with DESI Year 1 spectra

ABSTRACT We estimate the redshift-dependent, anisotropic clustering signal in the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 Survey created by tidal alignments of Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) and a selection-induced galaxy orientation bias. To this end, we measured the correlation between LRG shapes and the tidal field with DESI’s Year 1 redshifts, as traced by LRGs and Emission-Line Galaxies. We also estimate the galaxy orientation bias of LRGs caused by DESI’s aperture-based selection, and find it to increase by a factor of seven between redshifts 0.4−1.1 due to redder, fainter galaxies falling closer to DESI’s imaging selection cuts. These effects combine to dampen measurements of the quadrupole of the correlation function (ξ2) caused by structure growth on scales of 10–80 h−1 Mpc by about 0.15 per cent for low redshifts (0.4 < z < 0.6) and 0.8 per cent for high (0.8 < z < 1.1), a significant fraction of DESI’s error budget. We provide estimates of the ξ2 signal created by intrinsic alignments that can be used to correct this effect, which is necessary to meet DESI’s forecasted precision on measuring the growth rate of structure. While imaging quality varies across DESI’s footprint, we find no significant difference in this effect between imaging regions in the Legacy Imaging Survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Daily grass reference evapotranspiration with Meteosat Second Generation shortwave radiation and reference ET products

Here we assess the accuracy of estimating daily grass reference evapotranspiration (PM-ET o ) using daily shortwave radiation (R s ) and reference evapotranspiration (ET REF ) products provided by the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite delivered by the Satellite Applications Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF) framework. The accuracy of using reanalysis ERA5 shortwave radiation data (R s ERA5 ) provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is also evaluated. The assessments were performed using observed weather variables at 37 weather stations distributed across continental Portugal, where climate conditions range from semi-arid to humid, and 12 weather stations located in Azores islands, characterized by humid, windy and often cloudy conditions. This study's use of data from a variety of climate conditions contributed to a unique and innovative assessment of the usability of LSA-SAF and ERA5 products for ET o estimation. The first assessment focused on comparing LSA-SAF estimates of R s (R s LSA-SAF ) against ground stations (R s ground ). The results showed a good matching between the two R s data sets for continental Portugal but a tendency for R s LSA-SAF to under-estimate R s ground in the cloudy islands of Azores. ET o values computed using R s LSA-SAF data and observed temperature, humidity and wind speed (ET o LSA-SAF ) were then compared with PM-ET o estimates with ground-based data, which were used as benchmark; input data of temperature and humidity needed for PM-ET o were quality checked for surface aridity effects. It was observed that ET o LSA-SAF is strongly correlated with PM-ET o (R 2 > 0.97) for most locations in continental Portugal, with regression coefficient of a linear regression forced to the origin ranging between 0.95 and 1.05, mean root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.13 mm d –1 , and Nash and Sutcliff efficiency of modeling (EF) above 0.95. For most Azores locations, ET o LSA-SAF over-estimated PM-ET o . This is likely a consequence of the high spatio-temporal heterogeneity of weather conditions that occur in these oceanic islands together with the different footprints of satellite (averaged over the pixel) and station observations. Reanalysis ERA5 shortwave radiation data presented similar behavior to the LSA-SAF products, however with slightly lower accuracy. The daily LSA-SAF ET REF product (ET REF LSA-SAF ) was assessed and results have shown a good accuracy of this product, with acceptable RMSE and high EF values, for continental Portugal but a low accuracy for the Azores islands. A simplified bias correction approach was shown to improve both ET o derived from the LSA-SAF products, namely for Azores stations, which seem to be representative of smaller areas. The use of the FAO-PM temperature approach (PMT) was also assessed using the R s LSA-SAF and R s ERA5 data, which showed a superiority of the LSA-SAF product for ET o estimations (ET o PMT LSA-SAF ). No significant differences (p < 0.05) were observed in terms of the median value of the RMSE when adopting ET o PMT and ET REF LSA-SAF . Differently, results showed that using the R s LSA-SAF in the PMT approach (ET o PMT LSA-SAF ) produces significantly better RMSE results than ET o PMT and ET REF LSA-SAF . Overall, the performed assessment allows concluding that the use of R s LSA-SAF, and to a lesser extent the use of the R s ERA5 , highly improves the accuracy of computation of ET o when R s observations are not available, including when only temperature data are accessible. The use of the ET REF LSA-SAF product is a good alternative when observed weather data are not available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗