Results for “error estimation and analysis” — Page 27

NASA NTRS2020

Aerodynamic Parameter Estimation Using Reconstructed Turbulence Measurements

A classical method for reconstructing atmospheric turbulence from onboard measurements of airdata and inertial sensors was improved and implemented for real-time computation. The reconstructed turbulence measurements were then included in a system identification analysis to estimate nondimensional stability and control derivatives in a longitudinal short period model using the maximum likelihood equation-error method in the frequency domain with Fourier-transform data. Flight test results using a subscale transport-type airplane showed that the power spectra for the reconstructed vertical gusts resembled the von Kármán turbulence model. Flight data in moderate and severe turbulence exhibited a decorrelation of the modeling data that increased the accuracy of parameter estimation results using the reconstructed turbulence. In particular, pitch rate and angle-of-attack rate derivatives could both be identified from flight data about straight and level flight without special maneuvers or prior information.

Jared A Grauer↗

NASA NTRS2014

Pressure Analysis for LAVA-OVEN

The Lunar Advanced Volatiles Analysis (LAVA) and the Oxygen Volatiles Extraction Node (OVEN) are subsystems included in the Regolith Environment Science, and Oxygen Lunar Volatiles Extraction (RESOLVE) payload bound for the Moon in 2019. This Resource Prospector Mission (RPM) has the objective of landing on a shadowed region of the Moons South Pole to collect data and determine whether the resources could be effectively used for space exploration systems. The quantification of the resources will help understand if it can adequately minimize materials carried from Earth by: providing life support, propellants, construction materials or energy supply to the payload or crew. This paper outlines the procedures done for the pressure analysis of the LAVA-OVEN (LOVEN) Integration Testing. The pressure analysis quantifies how much gases and water are present in the sample tested during the Engineering Testing Unit (ETU) phase of instrument development. Ultimately the purpose of these tests is to improve the estimate of the amount of water in each Lunar sample and reduce the time necessary for this estimate. The governing principle that was used for the analysis is the Ideal Gas Law, PV=nRT where P stands for pressure, V for volume, n for number of moles, R being the gas constant and T for temperature. We also estimate the errors involved in these measured and derived quantities since a key objective of the mission is to estimate the quantity of volatiles present in the lunar samples introduced into OVEN.

Lunar↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Systematic Errors in Simulated L-Band Brightness Temperature in the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Analysis

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission has been providing L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperature (Tb) observations since April 2015. By assimilating the Tb observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model using a spatially distributed ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides global, 3-hourly, 9-km resolution estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture with ~2.5-day latency for use in research and applications. The EnKF-based L4_SM analysis assumes unbiased forecast errors. Consequently, the seasonally varying bias between the model forecast Tb and the observed values is removed prior to the assimilation of the SMAP Tb observations. The L4_SM system is thus designed to only correct errors in synoptic-scale and interannual variations from the long-term mean seasonal cycle while maintaining the model’s (possibly wrong) climatology. In this paper, we examine the Tb observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals from the L4_SM Version 7 product (computed after rescaling the Tb observations to the mean seasonal cycle of the simulated Tb). The long-term average of the Tb O-F residuals has a global mean of only 0.13 K and locally small values, ranging from -1 to 3 K. The model forecast Tb, however, still exhibits undesirable systematic errors relative to the (rescaled) Tb observations. At some locations, the time-average Tb O-F values strongly depend on surface soil moisture (SM). At the Yanco SMAP core validation site, for example, the Tb O-F residuals typically range from 5 to 15 K under dry soil moisture conditions (SM < 0.15 m3 m-3) yet are predominantly negative under wet soil moisture conditions (SM > 0.25 m3 m-3), with values ranging from 0 to -40 K. This results in soil moisture analysis increments that persistently make the soil drier under dry SM conditions and persistently make the soil wetter under wet SM conditions, suggesting an error in the dynamic range of the simulated Tb, soil moisture or soil temperature. In this paper, we describe the higher-order systematic Tb forecast errors in more detail, examine their impact on the L4_SM product quality, and explore potential avenues to improve the L4_SM algorithm.

Rolf Reichle↗

NASA NTRS2021

Assimilation of SMAP Brightness Temperature Observations in the GEOS Land–Atmosphere Data Assimilation System

Errors in soil moisture adversely impact the modeling of land–atmosphere water and energy fluxes and, consequently, near-surface atmospheric conditions in atmospheric data assimilation systems (ADAS). To mitigate such errors, a land surface analysis is included in many such systems, although not yet in the currently operational NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ADAS. This article investigates the assimilation of L-band brightness temperature (Tb) observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission in the GEOS weakly coupled land–atmosphere data assimilation system (LADAS) during boreal summer 2017. The SMAP Tb analysis improves the correlation of LADAS surface and root-zone soil moisture versus in situ measurements by ∼0.1–0.26 over that of ADAS estimates; the unbiased root-mean-square error of LADAS soil moisture is reduced by 0.002–0.008 m^3 /m^3 from that of ADAS. Furthermore, the global land average RMSE versus in situ measurements of screen-level air specific humidity (q2m) and daily maximum temperature (T2m_max ) is reduced by 0.05 g/kg and 0.04 K, respectively, for LADAS compared to ADAS estimates. Regionally, the RMSE of LADAS q2m and T2m_max is improved by up to 0.4 g/kg and 0.3 K, respectively. Improvement in LADAS specific humidity extends into the lower troposphere (below ∼700 mb), with relative improvements in bias of 15–25%, although LADAS air temperature bias slightly increases relative to that of ADAS. Finally, the root mean square of the LADAS Tb observation-minus-forecast residuals is smaller by up to ∼0.1 K than in a land-only assimilation system, corroborating the positive impact of the Tb analysis on the modeled land–atmosphere coupling.

microwave remote sensing↗

DOE OSTI2023

AGR-5/6/7 Thermal Model with Non-uniform Gas Gaps

Fuel compact temperatures are a crucial factor in assessing the irradiation performance of tri-structural isotropic fuel particles. In the absence of direct measurement, fuel compact temperatures were calculated using a three-dimensional finite element thermal model, which is subject to simulation uncertainty. The most dominant factor in the uncertainty of calculated fuel temperatures is the gas gap uncertainty due to the nub-to-shell clearance caused by a design error of AGR-5/6/7 capsules. The thermal model was revised to examine the most probable graphite offset position for six different days during the irradiation for Capsules 1 and 2. The analysis varied the offset distance and azimuthal direction at both the top and bottom of the holder. The best-fit offset was estimated based on the minimum root mean square error of the residuals (measured minus calculated) for the operational thermocouples (TCs). From these results, the following conclusions were made: (1) The holder offsets led to slightly lower average temperatures but wider temperature variations (lower minimum and higher peak fuel temperatures) for both Capsule 1 and Capsule 2. (2) During earlier cycles (162A–164B), when numerous TCs were still operational, the best-fit offset distance varied over a specific range for both the top and bottom ([0.002–0.0035 in.] for Capsule 1 and [0.003-0.004 in] for Capsule 2). In contrast, the offset azimuthal direction varied widely, especially for the offset at the bottom of the Capsule 1 holder. This is because holder movement was somewhat constrained at the top of Capsule 1 by the TC leads running through the capsule head and into the holder and by the through tubes in Capsule 2, but the Capsule 1 bottom did not have this type of constraint. (3) During later cycles, when all TCs failed, applying the maximum possible offset of 0.006 in. to the northwest direction for both the top and bottom resulted in a calculated peak fuel temperature of 1557? in Capsule 1 (i.e., a 135? increase from 1422? with zero offset on September 20, 2019 (166A)); the maximum offset of 0.0068 in. to the south for both top and bottom resulted in a calculated peak fuel temperature of 1110°C in Capsule 2 on April 20, 2020 (i.e., a 116? increase from 994? with zero offset (168A)). High peak fuel temperatures in Capsule 1 during Cycle 166A could be the cause of massive particle failure near the end of this cycle. (4) Even though the highest temperature at the tip of Type-N TCs, such as TC-1-7, slightly exceeded 1000?, the temperature along the TC wire reached as high as 1335? assuming an offset of 0.006 in. in the northwest of Capsule 1 holder near the end of Cycle 166A. This temperature significantly exceeds the temperature threshold at which TC degradation is expected to occur, ultimately contributing to considerable particle failures in Capsule 1. For eight Type-N TCs in Capsule 2, the peak TC line temperature was much lower (i.e., 1029°C for TC-2-5), assuming maximum offset of 00068 in. to the south during cycle 168A.

advanced gas reactors↗

DOE OSTI2023

AGR-5/6/7 Thermal Model with Non-uniform Gas Gaps

Fuel compact temperatures are a crucial factor in assessing the irradiation performance of tri-structural isotropic fuel particles. In the absence of direct measurement, fuel compact temperatures were calculated using a three-dimensional finite element thermal model, which is subject to simulation uncertainty. The most dominant factor in the uncertainty of calculated fuel temperatures is the gas gap uncertainty due to the nub-to-shell clearance caused by a design error of AGR-5/6/7 capsules. The thermal model was revised to examine the most probable graphite offset position for six different days during the irradiation for Capsules 1 and 2. The analysis varied the offset distance and azimuthal direction at both the top and bottom of the holder. The best-fit offset was estimated based on the minimum root mean square error of the residuals (measured minus calculated) for the operational thermocouples (TCs). From these results, the following conclusions were made: (1) The holder offsets led to slightly lower average temperatures but wider temperature variations (lower minimum and higher peak fuel temperatures) for both Capsule 1 and Capsule 2. (2) During earlier cycles (162A–164B), when numerous TCs were still operational, the best-fit offset distance varied over a specific range for both the top and bottom ([0.002–0.0035 in.] for Capsule 1 and [0.003-0.004 in] for Capsule 2). In contrast, the offset azimuthal direction varied widely, especially for the offset at the bottom of the Capsule 1 holder. This is because holder movement was somewhat constrained at the top of Capsule 1 by the TC leads running through the capsule head and into the holder and by the through tubes in Capsule 2, but the Capsule 1 bottom did not have this type of constraint. (3) During later cycles, when all TCs failed, applying the maximum possible offset of 0.006 in. to the northwest direction for both the top and bottom resulted in a calculated peak fuel temperature of 1557? in Capsule 1 (i.e., a 135? increase from 1422? with zero offset on September 20, 2019 (166A)); the maximum offset of 0.0068 in. to the south for both top and bottom resulted in a calculated peak fuel temperature of 1110°C in Capsule 2 on April 20, 2020 (i.e., a 116? increase from 994? with zero offset (168A)). High peak fuel temperatures in Capsule 1 during Cycle 166A could be the cause of massive particle failure near the end of this cycle. (4) Even though the highest temperature at the tip of Type-N TCs, such as TC-1-7, slightly exceeded 1000?, the temperature along the TC wire reached as high as 1335? assuming an offset of 0.006 in. in the northwest of Capsule 1 holder near the end of Cycle 166A. This temperature significantly exceeds the temperature threshold at which TC degradation is expected to occur, ultimately contributing to considerable particle failures in Capsule 1. For eight Type-N TCs in Capsule 2, the peak TC line temperature was much lower (i.e., 1029°C for TC-2-5), assuming maximum offset of 00068 in. to the south during cycle 168A.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

AGR-5/6/7 Thermal Model with Non-uniform Gas Gaps

Fuel compact temperatures are a crucial factor in assessing the irradiation performance of tri-structural isotropic fuel particles. In the absence of direct measurement, fuel compact temperatures were calculated using a three-dimensional finite element thermal model, which is subject to simulation uncertainty. The most dominant factor in the uncertainty of calculated fuel temperatures is the gas gap uncertainty due to the nub-to-shell clearance caused by a design error of AGR-5/6/7 capsules. The thermal model was revised to examine the most probable graphite offset position for six different days during the irradiation for Capsules 1 and 2. The analysis varied the offset distance and azimuthal direction at both the top and bottom of the holder. The best-fit offset was estimated based on the minimum root mean square error of the residuals (measured minus calculated) for the operational thermocouples (TCs). From these results, the following conclusions were made: (1) The holder offsets led to slightly lower average temperatures but wider temperature variations (lower minimum and higher peak fuel temperatures) for both Capsule 1 and Capsule 2. (2) During earlier cycles (162A–164B), when numerous TCs were still operational, the best-fit offset distance varied over a specific range for both the top and bottom ([0.002–0.0035 in.] for Capsule 1 and [0.003-0.004 in] for Capsule 2). In contrast, the offset azimuthal direction varied widely, especially for the offset at the bottom of the Capsule 1 holder. This is because holder movement was somewhat constrained at the top of Capsule 1 by the TC leads running through the capsule head and into the holder and by the through tubes in Capsule 2, but the Capsule 1 bottom did not have this type of constraint. (3) During later cycles, when all TCs failed, applying the maximum possible offset of 0.006 in. to the northwest direction for both the top and bottom resulted in a calculated peak fuel temperature of 1557? in Capsule 1 (i.e., a 135? increase from 1422? with zero offset on September 20, 2019 (166A)); the maximum offset of 0.0068 in. to the south for both top and bottom resulted in a calculated peak fuel temperature of 1110°C in Capsule 2 on April 20, 2020 (i.e., a 116? increase from 994? with zero offset (168A)). High peak fuel temperatures in Capsule 1 during Cycle 166A could be the cause of massive particle failure near the end of this cycle. (4) Even though the highest temperature at the tip of Type-N TCs, such as TC-1-7, slightly exceeded 1000?, the temperature along the TC wire reached as high as 1335? assuming an offset of 0.006 in. in the northwest of Capsule 1 holder near the end of Cycle 166A. This temperature significantly exceeds the temperature threshold at which TC degradation is expected to occur, ultimately contributing to considerable particle failures in Capsule 1. For eight Type-N TCs in Capsule 2, the peak TC line temperature was much lower (i.e., 1029°C for TC-2-5), assuming maximum offset of 00068 in. to the south during cycle 168A.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Shock-ramp analysis test problem

Quasi-isentropic (ramp) compression is now a well-established experimental method and so are the analysis techniques to give Lagrangian sound speed, pressure, and density along the sample material's isentrope. A shock followed by ramp compression is a natural extension to investigate, for example, shock melt and refreeze on compression, or isentropes of states off the Hugoniot or principal isentrope. In practice, graded-density impactors produce initial shocks, compression by shaped laser pulses may be unable to produce a smooth pressure increase from zero, and incidental perturbations on the drive pulse may also give rise to shocks, so robust shock-ramp analysis methods will be needed. Appropriate analysis methods are needed for shock-ramp experiments, based on those for quasi-isentropic compression, and these require validation. This paper describes three different analyses of a shock-ramp test problem, including an assessment of their estimated errors. The methods tested were based on hydrodynamic characteristics or integration backward in space. All methods gave the known Lagrangian sound speed to within ~1%, and pressure and volume to within less than 2% and 1%, demonstrating that the analysis methods of isentropic compression experiments can be confidently extended to the analysis of shock and ramp compression.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS2018

Uncertainty Analysis of Coaxial Thermocouple Calorimeters Used in Arc Jets

Recent introduction of Coaxial Thermocouple type calorimeters into the NASA Ames arc jet facilities has inspired an analysis of 2D conduction effects internal to this type of calorimeter. Lateral conduction effects violate the 1D finite slab inverse analysis which is typically used to deduce the heat transfer to such calorimeters. The spherical shaped nose associated with most calorimeters (rather than flat) leads to a bias error that over-estimates the stagnation heating. Non-uniform heating on the face of spherically shaped calorimeters leads to conduction losses to the colder rim of the calorimeter which causes an underestimate of the stagnation heating. These two effects come into play at different times of the calorimeter's exposure to the arc jet, so they do not cancel. The spherical body effects come into play in the early stages of exposure, while the non-uniform heating effect becomes most severe at the later stages of exposure. The bias associated with spherical effects can be avoided by rewriting the 1D finite slab inverse analysis code to solve for 1D conduction in spherical coordinates. However, reducing the bias error associated non-uniform heating requires a somewhat ad hoc modification to the 1D finite element inverse analysis.

Isotherms↗

NASA NTRS1973

An objective technique to estimate percentage of an ERTS-1 water boundary resolution element covered by water

The author has identified the following significant results. An objective technique was developed to measure the surface area of water bodies. Nineteen water bodies in the Houston and Galveston, Texas area were selected as a basis for the technique development. The actual surface area of each body was determined from rectified and enlarged NASA aircraft photography. A clustering algorithm was used to produce classification maps of the region from ERTS-1 data. Certain classes were identified as being 100% water. Other classes were identified as being mixtures of water with land or vegetation. The number of picture elements falling on each water body and its boundary were counted. A linear regression analysis was performed to relate the total number of picture elements and boundary elements counted to the actual surface area. The standard error of the estimate was 6.7 acres. The absolute error was not a function of the actual surface area of the water body.

Erb, R. B.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of genotype‐calling methodologies on genome‐wide association and genomic prediction in polyploids

Abstract Discovery and analysis of genetic variants underlying agriculturally important traits are key to molecular breeding of crops. Reduced representation approaches have provided cost‐efficient genotyping using next‐generation sequencing. However, accurate genotype calling from next‐generation sequencing data is challenging, particularly in polyploid species due to their genome complexity. Recently developed Bayesian statistical methods implemented in available software packages, polyRAD, EBG, and updog, incorporate error rates and population parameters to accurately estimate allelic dosage across any ploidy. We used empirical and simulated data to evaluate the three Bayesian algorithms and demonstrated their impact on the power of genome‐wide association study (GWAS) analysis and the accuracy of genomic prediction. We further incorporated uncertainty in allelic dosage estimation by testing continuous genotype calls and comparing their performance to discrete genotypes in GWAS and genomic prediction. We tested the genotype‐calling methods using data from two autotetraploid species, Miscanthus sacchariflorus and Vaccinium corymbosum , and performed GWAS and genomic prediction. In the empirical study, the tested Bayesian genotype‐calling algorithms differed in their downstream effects on GWAS and genomic prediction, with some showing advantages over others. Through subsequent simulation studies, we observed that at low read depth, polyRAD was advantageous in its effect on GWAS power and limit of false positives. Additionally, we found that continuous genotypes increased the accuracy of genomic prediction, by reducing genotyping error, particularly at low sequencing depth. Our results indicate that by using the Bayesian algorithm implemented in polyRAD and continuous genotypes, we can accurately and cost‐efficiently implement GWAS and genomic prediction in polyploid crops.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1980

On the VLBI-satellite laser ranging Iron Triangle intercomparison experiment

Simulations were performed to determine the suitability of the proposed station locations. The criterion was a comparison among the possible station configuration of the standard deviations of baseline and Earth rotation parameters estimated from a least squares covariance analysis. Only the relative magnitudes of the standard deviations were addressed in the analysis. Only random errors were assumed and no provision was made for systematic effects. The Iron Triangle, consisting of the stations at Westford (Haystack), Massachusetts, Owens Valley, California, and Ft. Davis, Texas, was regarded as the structure of the proposed network with options to incorporate either the Goldstone, California, or Green Bank, West Virginia, station or both. It was decided to include the Richmond, Florida, station in the analysis since it offered more North-South separation and therefore could strengthen the geometry of the network especially in the recovery of Earth rotation parameters.

Bock, Y.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Some computational techniques for estimating human operator describing functions

Computational procedures for improving the reliability of human operator describing functions are described. Special attention is given to the estimation of standard errors associated with mean operator gain and phase shift as computed from an ensemble of experimental trials. This analysis pertains to experiments using sum-of-sines forcing functions. Both open-loop and closed-loop measurement environments are considered.

Levison, W. H.↗

NASA NTRS1988

An improved error assessment for the GEM-T1 gravitational model

Several tests were designed to determine the correct error variances for the Goddard Earth Model (GEM)-T1 gravitational solution which was derived exclusively from satellite tracking data. The basic method employs both wholly independent and dependent subset data solutions and produces a full field coefficient estimate of the model uncertainties. The GEM-T1 errors were further analyzed using a method based upon eigenvalue-eigenvector analysis which calibrates the entire covariance matrix. Dependent satellite and independent altimetric and surface gravity data sets, as well as independent satellite deep resonance information, confirm essentially the same error assessment. These calibrations (utilizing each of the major data subsets within the solution) yield very stable calibration factors which vary by approximately 10 percent over the range of tests employed. Measurements of gravity anomalies obtained from altimetry were also used directly as observations to show that GEM-T1 is calibrated. The mathematical representation of the covariance error in the presence of unmodeled systematic error effects in the data is analyzed and an optimum weighting technique is developed for these conditions. This technique yields an internal self-calibration of the error model, a process which GEM-T1 is shown to approximate.

Lerch, F. J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

An improved error assessment for the GEM-T1 gravitational model

Several tests were designed to determine the correct error variances for the GEM-T1 gravitational solution which was derived exclusively from satellite tracking data. The basic method employs both wholly independent and dependent subset data solutions and produces a full field coefficient by coefficient estimate of the model uncertainties. The GEM-T1 errors were further analyzed using a method based upon eigenvalue-eigenvector analysis which calibrates the entire covariance matrix. Dependent satellite and independent altimetric and surface gravity data sets, as well as independent satellite deep resonance information, confirm essentially the same error assessment.

Lerch, F. J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Computational technology for high-temperature aerospace structures

The status and some recent developments of computational technology for high-temperature aerospace structures are summarized. Discussion focuses on a number of aspects including: goals of computational technology for high-temperature structures; computational material modeling; life prediction methodology; computational modeling of high-temperature composites; error estimation and adaptive improvement strategies; strategies for solution of fluid flow/thermal/structural problems; and probabilistic methods and stochastic modeling approaches, integrated analysis and design. Recent trends in high-performance computing environment are described and the research areas which have high potential for meeting future technological needs are identified.

Noor, A. K.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Nimbus-7 Earth radiation budget calibration history. Part 1: The solar channels

The Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) experiment on the Nimbus-7 satellite measured the total solar irradiance plus broadband spectral components on a nearly daily basis from 16 Nov. 1978, until 16 June 1992. Months of additional observations were taken in late 1992 and in 1993. The emphasis is on the electrically self calibrating cavity radiometer, channel 10c, which recorded accurate total solar irradiance measurements over the whole period. The spectral channels did not have inflight calibration adjustment capabilities. These channels can, with some additional corrections, be used for short-term studies (one or two solar rotations - 27 to 60 days), but not for long-term trend analysis. For channel 10c, changing radiometer pointing, the zero offsets, the stability of the gain, the temperature sensitivity, and the influences of other platform instruments are all examined and their effects on the measurements considered. Only the question of relative accuracy (not absolute) is examined. The final channel 10c product is also compared with solar measurements made by independent experiments on other satellites. The Nimbus experiment showed that the mean solar energy was about 0.1 percent (1.4 W/sqm) higher in the excited Sun years of 1979 and 1991 than in the quiet Sun years of 1985 and 1986. The error analysis indicated that the measured long-term trends may be as accurate as +/- 0.005 percent. The worse-case error estimate is +/- 0.03 percent.

Kyle, H. Lee↗

NASA NTRS1990

Satellite laser ranging and gravity field modeling accuracy

Gravitational field mismodeling procedures errors in the estimated orbital motion of near Earth satellites. This effect is studied using a linear perturbation approach following the analysis of Kaula. The perturbations in the orbital position as defined by either orbital elements or Cartesian components are determined. From these perturbations it is possible to ascertain the expected signal due to gravitational mismodeling that would be present in station-to-satellite laser ranging measurements. This expected signal has been estimated for the case of the Lageos satellite and using the predicted uncertainties of the GEM-T1 and GEM-T2 gravity field models. The results indicate that observable signal still exists in the laser range residuals given the current accuracy of the range measurements and the accuracy of the gravity field models.

Rosborough, George W.↗