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At least 487 records · Page 27

Incorporating JULES into NASA's Land Information System (LIS) and Investigations of Land-Atmosphere Coupling

NASA's Land Information System (LIS; lis.gsfc.nasa.gov) is a flexible land surface modeling and data assimilation framework developed over the past decade with the goal of integrating satellite- and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. LIS features a high performance and flexible design, and operates on an ensemble of land surface models for extension over user-specified regional or global domains. The extensible interfaces of LIS allow the incorporation of new domains, land surface models (LSMs), land surface parameters, meteorological inputs, data assimilation and optimization algorithms. In addition, LIS has also been demonstrated for parameter estimation and uncertainty estimation, and has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. A visiting fellowship is currently underway to implement JULES into LIS and to undertake some fundamental science on the feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. An overview of the LIS system, features, and sample results will be presented in an effort to engage the community in the potential advantages of LIS-JULES for a range of applications. Ongoing efforts to develop a framework for diagnosing land-atmosphere coupling will also be presented using the suite of LSM and PBL schemes available in LIS and WRF along with observations from the U. S .. Southern Great Plains. This methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS-WRF system, which will serve as a testbed for future experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.

Santanello, Joseph↗

The Dependence on Grid Resolution of Numerically Simulated Convective Cloud Systems Using Ice Microphysics

Mesoscale research and forecast models are increasingly being used at horizontal resolutions of 1-8 km to simulate a variety of precipitating systems. When the model is used to simulate convective systems, it is uncertain to what extent the dynamics and microphysics of convective updrafts can be resolved with grids larger than 1 km. In this study, two- and three-dimensional versions of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model are used to determine the impact of horizontal grid resolution on the behavior of the simulated storms and on the characteristics of the cloud microphysical fields. It will be shown that as resolution decreases from about 1 km to greater than 3 km, there is a fairly rapid degradation of the storm structure in the form of reduced convective mass fluxes, updraft tilts, and cloud microphysics. A high-resolution simulation of hurricane outer rainbands using the MM5 mesoscale model shows also that there can be a substantial modification of the key microphysical processes that contribute to rainfall as a result of reducing the horizontal resolution.

Braun, Scott A.↗

Impacts of Marine Surface Pressure Observations From A Spaceborne Differential Absorption Radar Investigated With an Observing System Simulation Experiment

A new instrument has been proposed for measuring surface air pressure over the marine surface with a combined active/passive scanning multi-channel differential absorption radar (DAR) to provide an estimate of the total atmospheric column oxygen content. A demonstrator instrument, the Microwave Barometric Radar and Sounder (MBARS), has been funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for airborne test missions. Here, a proof-of-concept study to evaluate the potential impact of spaceborne surface pressure data on numerical weather prediction is performed using the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office global observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework. This OSSE framework employs the Goddard Earth Observing System model and the hybrid 4D ensemble variational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation data assimilation system. Multiple flight and scanning configurations of potential spaceborne orbits are examined. Swath width and observation spacing for the surface pressure data are varied to explore a range of sampling strategies. For wider swaths, the addition of surface pressures reduces the root mean square surface pressure analysis error by as much as 20% over some ocean regions. The forecast sensitivity observation impact tool estimates impacts on the Pacific Ocean basin boundary layer 24-hour forecast temperatures for spaceborne surface pressures on par with rawinsondes and aircraft, and greater impacts than the current network of ships and buoys. The largest forecast impacts are found in the southern hemisphere extratropics.

N.C. Privé↗

Evaluating the Utility of Remotely-Sensed Soil Moisture Retrievals for Operational Agricultural Drought Monitoring

Soil moisture is a fundamental data source used by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) International Production Assessment Division (IPAD) to monitor crop growth stage and condition and subsequently, globally forecast agricultural yields. Currently, the USDA IPAD estimates surface and root-zone soil moisture using a two-layer modified Palmer soil moisture model forced by global precipitation and temperature measurements. However, this approach suffers from well-known errors arising from uncertainty in model forcing data and highly simplified model physics. Here we attempt to correct for these errors by designing and applying an Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation system to integrate surface soil moisture retrievals from the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) into the USDA modified Palmer soil moisture model. An assessment of soil moisture analysis products produced from this assimilation has been completed for a five-year (2002 to 2007) period over the North American continent between 23degN - 50degN and 128degW - 65degW. In particular, a data denial experimental approach is utilized to isolate the added utility of integrating remotely-sensed soil moisture by comparing EnKF soil moisture results obtained using (relatively) low-quality precipitation products obtained from real-time satellite imagery to baseline Palmer model runs forced with higher quality rainfall. An analysis of root-zone anomalies for each model simulation suggests that the assimilation of AMSR-E surface soil moisture retrievals can add significant value to USDA root-zone predictions derived from real-time satellite precipitation products.

Bolten, John D.↗

Version 4 of the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Algorithm and Data Product

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides global, 3-hourly, 9-km resolution estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture with a mean latency of ~2.5 days. The underlying L4_SM algorithm assimilates SMAP radiometer brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model using a spatially-distributed ensemble Kalman filter. Version 4 of the L4_SM modeling system includes a reduction in the upward recharge of surface soil moisture from below under non-equilibrium conditions, resulting in reduced bias and improved dynamic range of L4_SM surface soil moisture compared to earlier versions. This change and additional technical modifications to the system reduce the mean and standard deviation of the observation-minus-forecast Tb residuals and overall soil moisture analysis increments while maintaining the skill of the L4_SM soil moisture estimates versus independent in situ measurements; the average, bias-adjusted RMSE in Version 4 is 0.039 m(exp 3) m(exp -3) for surface and 0.026 m(exp 3) m(exp -3) for root-zone soil moisture. Moreover, the coverage of assimilated SMAP observations in Version 4 is near-global owing to the use of additional satellite Tb records for algorithm calibration. L4_SM soil moisture uncertainty estimates are biased low (by 0.01-0.02 m(exp 3) m(exp -3)) against actual errors (computed versus in situ measurements). L4_SM runoff estimates, an additional product of the L4_SM algorithm, are biased low (by 35 mm year (exp -1)) against streamflow measurements. Compared to Version 3, bias in Version 4 is reduced by 46% for surface soil moisture uncertainty estimates and by 33% for runoff estimates.

RMSE↗

Evaluation and Optimization of Snow Albedo Scheme in Noah-MP Land Surface Model Using In Situ Spectral Observations in the Colorado Rockies

The Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) ground snow albedo algorithm is commonly used in land-surface models (LSM), weather forecasting and research applications. This study addresses key uncertainties in BATS simulated ground snow albedo within the Noah-MP LSM framework through evaluation and optimization of the Noah-MP BATS ground snow albedo formulation using 2-band (visible and near-infrared (NIR)) in situ albedo observations at Rocky Mountain field stations. The Noah-MP BATS ground snow albedo scheme is extremely sensitive to its input parameters. Namely, an ensemble generated by varying BATS input parameters within potentially plausible ranges provides an average daily range (maximum ensemble member minus minimum ensemble member) of ground snow albedo exceeding 0.45 in visible and NIR bands. Parameter optimization improves agreement between simulated and in situ observed ground snow albedo in visible, NIR and broadband spectrums. Importantly, optimized parameters result in reduced biases relative to observed fresh-snow albedo and better agreement with observed albedo decay. Our analysis across different sites supports that the optimized BATS ground snow albedo parameters are appropriate to transfer in space and time, at least within the region studied (the central-southern Rocky Mountains). The primary error source remaining after parameter optimization is that observed fresh-snow albedo is highly variable, particularly in the NIR spectrum, whereas BATS fresh-snow albedo is constant, an issue which requires further investigation. This study shows significant correlations between observed fresh-snow albedo and surface meteorological conditions (e.g., downward shortwave radiation and temperature) which can support future model development that attempts to include a time-varying formulation for fresh-snow albedo.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO

Can multi-annual variations in the frequency of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking and mid-latitude circulation regimes be skilfully predicted? Recent advances in seasonal forecasting have shown that mid-latitude climate variability does exhibit significant predictability. However, atmospheric predictability has generally been found to be quite limited on multi-annual timescales. New decadal prediction experiments from NCAR are found to exhibit remarkable skill in reproducing the observed multi-annual variations of wintertime blocking frequency over the North Atlantic and of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) itself. This is partly due to the large ensemble size that allows the predictable component of the atmospheric variability to emerge from the background chaotic component. The predictable atmospheric anomalies represent a forced response to oceanic low-frequency variability that strongly resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV), correctly reproduced in the decadal hindcasts thanks to realistic ocean initialization and ocean dynamics. The occurrence of blocking in certain areas of the Euro-Atlantic domain determines the concurrent circulation regime and the phase of known teleconnections, such as the NAO, consequently affecting the stormtrack and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Therefore, skilfully predicting the decadal fluctuations of blocking frequency and the NAO may be used in statistical predictions of near-term climate anomalies, and it provides a strong indication that impactful climate anomalies may also be predictable with improved dynamical models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Global Evolution of Solar Magnetic Fields and Prediction of Solar Activity Cycles

Prediction of solar activity cycles is challenging because the physical processes inside the Sun involve a broad range of multiscale dynamics that no model can reproduce, and the available observations are highly limited and cover mostly surface layers. Helioseismology makes it possible to probe solar dynamics in the convective zone, but variations in the differential rotation and meridional circulation are currently available for only two solar activity cycles. It has been demonstrated that sunspot observations, which cover over 400 years, can be used to calibrate the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmaikin model and that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method can be used to link the model magnetic fields to sunspot observations to make reliable predictions of a following cycle. However, for more accurate predictions, it is necessary to use actual observations of the solar magnetic fields, which are available for only four solar cycles. This raises the question of how limitations in observational data and model uncertainties affect predictive capabilities and implies the need for the development of new forecast methodologies and validation criteria. In this presentation, I will discuss the influence of the limited number of available observations on the accuracy of EnKF estimates of solar cycle parameters.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗

Dissemination of Global Surface Water Mapping from SAR and Optical Data to Global Stakeholders

Under NASA Solicitation A.37 “Earth Science Applications: Disaster Risk Reduction and Response,” NASA’s Disasters Program is funding projects focused on flood forecasting, post-event flood mapping, flood depth estimation and pre-event flood severity using Earth observation (EO) datasets (SAR and optical imagery) and derived flood products. A new initiative in the Disasters Program is underway to disseminate the flood products from different sensors to global stakeholders via the Pacific Disaster Center’s DisasterAWARE®, the NASA Disasters Mapping Portal and potentially other mechanisms. This initiative will also generate an integrated flood product(s) using an ensemble approach that will combine outputs from hydrologic models and EO data for different stakeholders globally for decision-making and response efforts.

remote sensing↗

Improved Representations of Land‐Atmosphere Interactions Over the Continental U.S. Through Dynamic Root Modeling

Previous studies have identified the oversimplified root system representation as a key factor leading to inaccuracies in vegetation‐atmosphere feedbacks. In this study, a dynamic root water uptake scheme in the Noah‐MP land surface model has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate its impact on the surface hydroclimate variables and land‐atmosphere interactions. To evaluate the impact of the dynamic root, two coupled simulations were conducted, one with the dynamic root water uptake scheme (DynRt) and one with the static root water uptake scheme (StcRt), which is based on the default root representation in Noah‐MP, with slight modifications, primarily in vegetation‐related parameters. Both DynRt and StcRt simulations were conducted with a small ensemble of three members to account for variations in physical parameterizations, initial and boundary forcing and model setup. When compared with reference data sets, the DynRt simulations show improved results than the StcRt simulations, reducing biases in the simulated leaf area index, surface energy fluxes, soil moisture and precipitation. Two different mechanisms through which roots affect land‐atmosphere coupling have been identified. Over the transitional climate zone between the dry and wet climate, the dynamic root scheme affects surface climate and land‐atmosphere coupling mainly through changes in soil moisture through hydraulic redistribution by plant root system. Over the energy‐limited mesic zone, the dynamic root affects regional land‐atmosphere coupling mainly through changes in carbon allocation. This work highlights the importance of dynamic root representation in improving vegetation‐atmosphere simulations by enhancing predictions of water, energy, and carbon fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring New Pathways in Precipitation Assimilation

Precipitation assimilation poses a special challenge in that the forward model for rain in a global forecast system is based on parameterized physics, which can have large systematic errors that must be rectified to use precipitation data effectively within a standard statistical analysis framework. We examine some key issues in precipitation assimilation and describe several exploratory studies in assimilating rainfall and latent heating information in NASA's global data assimilation systems using the forecast model as a weak constraint. We present results from two research activities. The first is the assimilation of surface rainfall data using a time-continuous variational assimilation based on a column model of the full moist physics. The second is the assimilation of convective and stratiform latent heating retrievals from microwave sensors using a variational technique with physical parameters in the moist physics schemes as a control variable. We will show the impact of assimilating these data on analyses and forecasts. Among the lessons learned are (1) that the time-continuous application of moisture/temperature tendency corrections to mitigate model deficiencies offers an effective strategy for assimilating precipitation information, and (2) that the model prognostic variables must be allowed to directly respond to an improved rain and latent heating field within an analysis cycle to reap the full benefit of assimilating precipitation information. of microwave radiances versus retrieval information in raining areas, and initial efforts in developing ensemble techniques such as Kalman filter/smoother for precipitation assimilation. Looking to the future, we discuss new research directions including the assimilation

Hou, Arthur↗

Arctic Tipping Points Triggering Global Change (LDRD Final Report)

The Arctic is warming and feedbacks in the coupled Earth system may be driving the Arctic to tipping events that could have critical downstream impacts for the rest of the globe. In this project we have focused on analyzing sea ice variability and loss in the coupled Earth system Summer sea ice loss is happening rapidly and although the loss may be smooth and reversible, it has significant consequences for other Arctic systems as well as geopolitical and economic implications. Accurate seasonal predictions of sea ice minimum extent and long-term estimates of timing for a seasonally ice-free Arctic depend on a better understanding of the factors influencing sea ice dynamics and variation in this strongly coupled system. Under this project we have investigated the most influential factors in accurate predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent using machine learning models trained separately on observational data and on simulation data from five E3SM historical ensembles. Monthly averaged data from June, July, and August for a selection of ice, ocean, and atmosphere variables were used to train a random forest regression model. Gini importance measures were computed for each input feature with the testing data. We found that sea ice volume is most important earlier in the season (June) and sea ice extent became a more important predictor closer to September. Results from this study provide insight into how feature importance changes with forecast length and illustrates differences between observational data and simulated Earth system data. We have additionally performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled ultra- low resolution configuration E3SM. To our knowledge, this is the first global sensitivity analysis involving the fully-coupled E3SM Earth system model. We have found that parameter variations show significant impact on the Arctic climate state and atmospheric parameters related to cloud parameterizations are the most significant. We also find significant interactions between parameters from different components of E3SM. The results of this study provide invaluable insight into the relative importance of various parameters from the sea ice, atmosphere and ocean components of the E3SM (including cross-component parameter interactions) on various Arctic-focused quantities of interest (QOIs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Satellite Atmospheric Motion Vectors In the GMAO GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation System

The WMO and THORPEX co-sponsored fifth Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on Numerical Weather Prediction will be organized by the Expert Team on the Evolution of the Global Observing System in Sedona, Arizona, United States, from 22 to 25 May 2012. Participants are expected to come from all the major NWP centres which are active in the area of impact studies. The workshop will be conducted in English. As for the first four workshops it is planned to produce a workshop report to be published as a WMO Technical Report that will include the papers submitted by the participants. The previous four workshops in this series took place in Geneva {April 1997), Toulouse (March 2000), Alpbach (March 2004) and Geneva (May 2008). Results from Observing System Experiments (OSEs), both with global and regional aspects were presented and conclusions were drawn concerning the contributions of the various components of the observing system to the large scale forecast skill at short and medium range (Workshop Proceedings were published as WMO World Weather Watch Technical Reports TD No. 868, 1034, 1228 and 1450). Since then, some significant changes and developments have affected the global observing system and more efforts have been devoted to meso-scale observing and assimilation systems. There has also been a trend toward using techniques other than OSEs to document data impact, such as adjoint-based sensitivity to observations or ensemble-based sensitivity. Field experiments have been carried out, in particular through the THORPEX project, and the use of targeted data has been assessed.

Gelaro, Ronald↗

Karhunen–Loève deep learning method for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation

We evaluate the performance of the Karhunen-Loève Deep Neural Network (KL-DNN) framework for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation in partial differential equation models. In the surrogate model, the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions are used for the dimensionality reduction of the number of unknown parameters and variables, and a deep neural network is employed to relate the reduced space of parameters to that of the state variables. The KL-DNN surrogate model is used to formulate a maximum-a-posteriori-like least-squares problem, which is randomized to draw samples of the posterior distribution of the parameters. We test the proposed framework for a hypothetical unconfined aquifer via comparison with the forward MODFLOW and inverse PEST++ iterative ensemble smoother (IES) solutions as well as the state-of-the-art Fourier neural operator (FNO) and deep operator networks (DeepONets) operator learning surrogate models. Our results show that the KL-DNN surrogate model outperforms FNO and DeepONet for forward predictions. For solving inverse problems, the randomized algorithm provides the same or more accurate Bayesian predictions of the parameters than IES as evidenced by the higher log-predictive probability of both the estimated parameter field and the forecast hydraulic head. The posterior mean obtained from the randomized algorithm is closer to the reference parameter field than that obtained with FNO as the maximum a posteriori estimate.

Approximate Bayesian inference↗

Inference of Rock Flow and Mechanical Properties from Injection-Induced Microseismic Events During Geologic CO 2 Storage

Monitoring microseismic activities during CO 2 injection into geologic formations is important for ensuring the safety of the storage operations. The resulting data provide insight into the response of the storage formation to CO 2 injection and can be used to infer the underlying rock flow and mechanical properties. In this paper, assimilation of microseismic data is performed for dynamic characterization of the storage formation by using a stochastic simulation model to forecast the microseismic response of a geologic formation during CO 2 injection. Two modeling approaches are adopted to predict the space-time distribution of the injection-induced microseismicity. The first model is based on pore pressure relaxation assumption, while the second model uses coupled flow and geomechanics simulation to establish the complex physical relation between the storage formation properties and the corresponding microseismic responses during CO 2 injection. The stochastic predictive models in each case are used in ensemble data assimilation frameworks to estimate rock properties from the observed microseismic data. Two data assimilation methods are considered: (i) a new ensemble-based stochastic point process filter (EnPPF) that can directly integrate discrete microseismic events, and (ii) a variant of ensemble smoother, known as the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA), which requires continuous representation of microseismic events for assimilation. The two methods are successfully applied to a geologically realistic model of the Farnsworth Field in Texas, with complex geologic flow units and interacting fault systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

COVID-19 dynamics across the US: A deep learning study of human mobility and social behavior

This paper presents a deep learning framework for epidemiology system identification from noisy and sparse observations with quantified uncertainty. The proposed approach employs an ensemble of deep neural networks to infer the time-dependent reproduction number of an infectious disease by formulating a tensor-based multi-step loss function that allows us to efficiently calibrate the model on multiple observed trajectories. The method is applied to a mobility and social behavior-based SEIR model of COVID-19 spread. The model is trained on Google and Unacast mobility data spanning a period of 66 days, and is able to yield accurate future forecasts of COVID-19 spread in 203 US counties within a time-window of 15 days. Interestingly, a sensitivity analysis that assesses the importance of different mobility and social behavior parameters reveals that attendance of close places, including workplaces, residential, and retail and recreational locations, has the largest impact on the effective reproduction number. Furthermore, the model enables us to rapidly probe and quantify the effects of government interventions, such as lock-down and re-opening strategies. Taken together, the proposed framework provides a robust workflow for data-driven epidemiology model discovery under uncertainty and produces probabilistic forecasts for the evolution of a pandemic that can judiciously provide information for policy and decision making. All codes and data accompanying this manuscript are available at https://github.com/PredictiveIntelligenceLab/DeepCOVID19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Study of explosive and nonexplosive cyclogenesis during FGGE

Explosive cyclogenesis during the winter of the First Global GARP Experiment (January-February 1979) is analyzed using the revised European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses. Explosive cyclogenesis is defined as a decrease in the sea level pressure at the rate of 1 mb/h for at least 12 h. Diagnostics for 23 explosively developing cases and 16 nonexplosive cases are evaluated. Parameters compared include the dry static stability, low-level relative vorticity, vorticity advection, upper-level divergence, and kinematic vertical velocities. These parameters are compared statistically at the initial, 12-, and 24-h time periods. Parameters for which the explosive and nonexplosive cyclone ensembles were statistically separable are the kinematic vertical velocity and the upper-level divergence and vorticity advection. The strong upper-level processes for the explosive cases at the initial time indicate the importance of upper-tropospheric features in producing the stronger vertical motions and more rapid cyclogenesis.

Wash, Carlyle H.↗

NOW-23: the 2023 National Offshore Wind Data Set

In this report, we present the latest wind resource data specifically tailored for offshore regions in the United States. The data set, known as the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), has been developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and its partners, and surpasses the previous resource data set, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, which was released approximately ten years ago, in its offshore component. The WIND Toolkit has been widely utilized by stakeholders involved in wind resource assessments across the continental United States. However, with significant advancements in numerical weather prediction modeling over the past decade, the NOW-23 data set incorporates the latest research and development progress to provide stakeholders with an updated and cutting-edge resource for offshore wind analysis. The NOW-23 data set is created using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its output is available, as for its predecessor, at 5-minute time resolution and 2-kilometer horizontal spatial resolution. However, the NOW-23 data set improves upon the WIND Toolkit through: 1. A modeling period of at least 20 years (and as long as 23 years in selected regions), starting in 2000 (compared to the 7-year 2007–2013 modeling period in the WIND Toolkit). 2. For several offshore regions, a region-specific sensitivity analysis, driven by an ensemble of WRF simulations, to assess the most adequate region-specific WRF setup. 3. An updated WRF model, from Version 3.4 used in the WIND Toolkit to Version 4.2.1 used for the NOW-23 data set, which incorporates significant research advancements. 4. The use of the state-of-the-art reanalysis product ERA5 (which supersedes the older ERA-Interim used in the WIND Toolkit) to provide atmospheric forcing at the WRF domain boundaries. Figure 1 shows the NOW-23 mean wind speed at 160 m above sea level (asl), which we use as proxy for hub-height of a commercial offshore wind turbine in this report across all regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗