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DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Electric-Sector Decision Making: Demand-Side Effects

Previous work by the Berkeley Lab describes how high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) such as wind and solar power could change wholesale electricity price dynamics. These include the timing of when electricity is cheap or expensive, locational differences in the cost of electricity, and the degree of regularity or predictability in those costs. Many decentralized decision-makers on the demand-side may not yet have considered the implications of these possible future changes. In this report, we evaluate the sensitivity of a set of demand-side decisions to different levels of VRE penetration ranging from a low of 5-20% to a high of 40-50%. The analysis builds on hourly wholesale energy and capacity prices in different VRE scenarios for four wholesale markets in the United States for the year 2030 (CAISO, ERCOT, NYISO, and SPP). The principal question for this exploration is whether private and public electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low VRE levels still achieve their intended objective in a high VRE scenario with 40-50% wind and solar? This scoping report evaluates the impacts of changing patterns of peak system needs on the benefits of demand reductions by examining the altered value of different energy efficiency (EE) measures. Similarly, we investigate new opportunities for large energy consumers that may arise from periods with very low wholesale electricity prices. We calculate the value of new process investments (e.g., hydrogen production and other generalized electro-commodities), showcase the varying value of new product storage investments (such as reservoir extensions at a desalination plant), and estimate the benefits of increased process flexibility that uses electricity as a process-input in addition to traditional fossil fuels (e.g., district energy systems). Finally, many decentralized decision-makers and end-use customers are not directly exposed to wholesale electricity prices but instead receive price signals from their retail electricity rates. As wind and solar shares increase, we compare the economic efficiency of flat retail rates relative to more dynamic time-of-use tariffs with and without critical peak-pricing events.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Mexico and U.S. Power Systems Under Variations in Natural Gas Prices

This study examines the impact of natural gas prices on the power systems of Mexico and the United States. For this, we develop an integrated modeling framework by soft linking three different techno-economic bottom-up models of the power and energy systems, one partial equilibrium model of the natural gas sector, and a partial equilibrium model of the Mexican energy sector. Our results show several interesting results: high natural gas prices raise the use of carbon-intensive technologies in the short-term and boost renewable investments at longer time intervals, increasing emissions in earlier periods and reducing them thereafter. Regarding system costs, because of more capital-intensive green power and lower expenditures in raw energy carriers, capital costs rise and operating costs decrease in the long haul. Furthermore, we see an increase in natural gas demand when its price is low, reducing long-term capital and operating costs through cheaper energy inputs in natural gas facilities and a lower share of capital-intensive renewable facilities in the power system. Concerning emissions, low natural-gas prices decrease coal use in the United States, reducing anthropogenic emissions until the last stages of the optimization period. For Mexico, they show heterogeneous results across models. Policymakers can use this study's results to understand the influence of natural gas prices in the Mexican and United States energy sectors.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrated Energy-Water Data for Cross-Sector Resilience

This white paper focuses on the “energy-for-water” domain, addressing the urgent need for integrated, empirical data to support regional management, benchmarking, and research on improving efficiency and developing technologies for water and wastewater management systems. The costs and energy required for the supply, treatment, and distribution of water and wastewater lack a standard data collection mechanism and centralized database or storage infrastructure, limiting data-driven decision-making across interdependent infrastructure systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Microgrids in Emerging Markets - Private Sector Perspectives

This quick read assesses the barriers and opportunities for private sector entry into microgrid development. Information presented in this paper is based on qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis methods to provide an empirical understanding of barriers to private sector clean energy investment in emerging markets.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Energy Leaders: The Catalyst for Strategic Energy Management

This study investigates the crucial role energy leaders play in driving strategic energy management (SEM) and accelerating cost savings within a manufacturing organization and consequently, the industrial sector. Whereas energy efficiency can be seen as an innovative business practice with irrefutable cost benefits, its effective implementation requires strategic leadership and a structured approach. This research analyzes data collected from 120 participants representing 71 companies attending the Energy Bootcamp events organized by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Better Plants program. The collected data focused on the state of SEM implementation, the presence and responsibilities of energy leaders, and the formation and function of energy teams. The findings reveal a significant gap between the perceived importance of SEM and its actual adoption, highlighting the need for strong leadership to drive behavioral changes by championing energy efficiency initiatives. Results indicate that effective energy leaders possess a diverse skill set, including the ability to secure top management buy-in, foster a culture of energy consciousness, and collaborate across departments. This study emphasizes the importance of empowering energy leaders with clearly defined roles and responsibilities as well as the authority to build and lead cross-functional energy teams. Furthermore, integrating energy management into existing organizational structures and leveraging readily available resources are identified as key factors for successful implementation. This research underscores how dedicated leadership and effective SEM practices help achieve industrial energy efficiency goals, providing practical insights for organizations seeking to improve performance and contribute to a resilient future.

energy leader↗

NASA NTRS1984

Relationship of dusk sector radial electric field to energy dispersion at the inner edge of the electron plasma sheet

It is shown that, by assuming that the magnetospheric particle boundaries are the result of steady state convection, the electron boundaries in the dusk sector are essentially sensitive to the local, not the global, electric field configuration. A simple, direct relationship is obtained between the dusk sector radial electric field and the inner edge of electron boundaries at various energies.

Horwitz, J. L.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Summary of Expansions and Updates in R&D GREET ® 2023

The Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET®) model was developed by Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) with the support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and other federal agencies. R&D GREET is a life cycle analysis (LCA) model, structured to systematically examine the energy and environmental effects of a wide variety of transportation fuels and vehicle technologies in major transportation sectors (i.e., road, air, marine, and rail), other end-use sectors, and energy systems. Argonne has expanded and updated the model in various areas in R&D GREET 2023. This report provides a summary of the expansions and updates.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Summary of Expansions and Updates in R&D GREET ® 2024

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Summary of Expansions and Updates in R&D GREET® 2024 Rev.1

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Coupling Chemical Heat Pump with Nuclear Reactor for Temperature Amplification by Delivering Process Heat and Electricity: A Techno-Economic Analysis

The energy economy is continually evolving in response to socio-political factors in the nature of primary energy sources, their conversions to useful forms, such as electricity and heat, and their utilization in different sectors. Nuclear energy has a crucial role to play in the evolution of energy economy due to its clean and non-carbon-emitting characteristics. A techno-economic analysis was undertaken to establish the viability of selling heat along with electricity for an advanced 100 MWth small modular reactor (SMR) and four nuclear hybrid energy system (NHES) configurations featuring the SMR paired with chemical heat pump (ChHP) systems providing a thermal output ranging from 1 to 50 MWth. Net present value, payback period, discounted cash flow rate of return, and levelized cost of energy were evaluated for these systems for different regions of U.S. reflecting a range of electricity and thermal energy costs. The analysis indicated that selling heat to high temperature industrial processes showed profitable outcomes compared to the sale of only electricity. Higher carbon taxes improved the economic parameters of the NHES alternatives significantly. Providing heat to high temperature industries could be very beneficial, helping to cut down the greenhouse gases emission by reducing the fossil fuel consumption.

Gupta, Aman↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wind Energy Fundamentals for the Bangladesh Financial Sector [Slides]

Financial institutions in Bangladesh play an important role in accelerating the deployment of wind energy. The country's central bank, the Bangladesh Bank, has been a pioneer in developing green banking initiatives. This training seeks to provide the Bangladesh Bank and other stakeholders in the Bangladesh financial sector with fundamental knowledge about wind energy so that they can support its growth in the country.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simple Wins: Driving Effective Implementation of Energy Efficiency Projects

Small- and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs) in the United States, making up over 98% of manufacturing firms, account for 48.3% of the sector’s energy consumption. Despite access to energy assessments and technical resources, such as those from the US Department of Energy’s Better Plants program and Industrial Training and Assessment Centers, implementation rates for identified energy-saving measures remain lower than expectations, averaging 47%. Some barriers were identified by other researchers as limited workforce capacity, inadequate training, and time constraints hinder progress. This article studied the development of customized checklists together with the energy assessment report as a practical solution to improve implementation rates for energy efficiency projects among SMMs. The framework for the checklists was grounded in five principles: short, precise, actionable, relevant, and codeveloped (SPARC). A case study of a 500,000-squarefoot SMM demonstrates how tailored checklists targeting significant energy users—such as heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC), lighting, and compressed air systems for this facility—can simplify the process for staff to do facility walkthroughs to monitor best practices and track the progress of energy efficiency project implementation.

Guo, Wei [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oa↗

DOE OSTI2020

Ultrahigh-energy tau neutrino cross sections with GRAND and POEMMA

Next-generation neutrino experiments will push the limits in our understanding of astroparticle physics in the neutrino sector to energies orders of magnitude higher than the current state-of-the-art high-energy neutrino experiment, IceCube. These experiments will use neutrinos to tell us about the most extreme environments in the Universe while simultaneously leveraging these extreme environments as probes of neutrino properties at the highest energies accessible in the foreseeable future: $E \sim 10^9$ GeV. At these energies neutrinos are readily absorbed in Earth. Assuming an isotropic distribution, by looking at how the flux varies as a function of the angle through Earth, we show here that it is possible to extract the $ν_τ$-N cross section with precision at the ~20% level (1σ assuming Wilks' theorem) given $N_{events} \sim 100$ events.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Summary of Expansions and Updates in R&D GREET® 2025

The research and development (R&D) version of Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET®) model, or R&D GREET, is developed by Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) with the support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and other federal agencies. R&D GREET is a life cycle analysis (LCA) model, structured to systematically examine the energy and environmental effects of a wide variety of transportation fuels and vehicle technologies in all transportation sub-sectors (i.e., road, air, marine, and rail) and other end-use sectors, and energy technology systems. Argonne has expanded and updated the model in many areas in R&D GREET 2025. This report provides a summary of the expansions and updates. R&D GREET is designed as an attributional LCA model, but specific consequential effects for certain pathways are included by default when they are scientifically important and/or highly policy relevant. For example, two major consequential elements – induced land use change (ILUC) for biofuels and avoided emissions for certain RNG-based pathways – are implemented by default in R&D GREET because they are highly relevant to our user base and crucial for a comprehensive evaluation of the environmental effects of these technologies. In a future version of R&D GREET, these consequential elements for biofuels and RNG could be more clearly distinguished from core attributional results. We will consider adding a highly visible toggle that would allow users to turn off or adjust these consequential impacts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing district energy systems under uncertainty: Insights from a case study from Washington D.C., USA

This study investigates solutions for delivering affordable heating and cooling to a brownfield site, focusing on a case study in Washington, DC. Moving towards more diverse and resilient energy systems, we identify the optimal portfolio for a district energy system with diverse energy sources to meet the area’s energy demands. Our methodological approach integrates two detailed models: one calculating building-level energy demand and the other optimizing district energy technology choices based on their demand profiles, accounting for uncertainties in energy prices, policies, and other parameters. The results provide an economic comparison of district and individual supply options at the building level, emphasizing the flexibility district systems can offer to the electricity sector. District energy systems demonstrate cost-stabilization benefits amidst volatile energy prices and external uncertainties. For heating, district systems yield significant cost savings compared to individual solutions, driven by fuel flexibility and the use of local renewable energy sources. For cooling, district systems also show advantages, though individual systems may remain more cost-effective for smaller buildings. Additionally, district systems exhibit considerable flexibility on the heating side, as evidenced by variations in electricity consumption. We recommend future research to explore the relationship between the economics of district energy systems, particularly at the building level, and their flexibility potential for the electricity sector across diverse geographic contexts to reduce overall grid costs and promote grid reliability. This includes areas with distinct zoning laws, municipal priorities, utility structures, and funding mechanisms, such as the United States, and regions like Europe with pronounced electricity price volatility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Compounding Uncertainties in Economic and Population Growth Increase Tail Risks for Relevant Outcomes Across Sectors

Understanding the long-term effects of population and GDP changes requires a multisectoral and regional understanding of the coupled human-Earth system, as the long-term evolution of this coupled system is influenced by human decisions and the Earth system. This study investigates the impact of compounding economic and population growth uncertainties on long-term multisectoral outcomes. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to explore the influence of compounding and feedback between future GDP and population growth on four key sectors: final energy consumption, water withdrawal, staple food prices, and CO 2 emissions. The results show that uncertainties in GDP and population compound, resulting in a magnification of tail risks for outcomes across sectors and regions. Compounding uncertainties significantly impact metrics such as CO 2 emissions and final energy consumption, particularly at the upper tail at both global and regional levels. However, the impact of staple food prices and water withdrawal depends on regional factors. Additionally, an alternative low-carbon transition scenario could compound uncertainties and increase tail risk, particularly in staple food prices, highlighting the influence of emergent constraints on land availability and food-energy competition for land use. The findings underscore the importance of considering and adequately accounting for compounding uncertainties in key drivers of multisectoral systems to enhance our comprehensive understanding of the complex nature of multisectoral systems. The paper provides valuable insights into the potential implications of compounding uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Scaling Up Energy Efficiency Investment in Emerging Markets - Private Sector Perspectives

Since 2000, electricity demand has flattened and decoupled from Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. This trend is anticipated to continue for the next several decades and is largely attributed to the implementation of energy efficiency measures. However, non-OECD countries (emerging markets) have experienced, and are projected to continue experiencing, increasing electricity demands. If the world is to meet the requirements of the Paris Agreement, annual investments in clean energy and energy efficiency need to increase by a factor of six by 2050, compared to 2015. Information presented in this paper is based on qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis methods to provide an empirical understanding of barriers to private sector clean energy investment including microgrid development, energy efficiency, smart grid development, and utility-scale wind and solar in emerging markets. Through literature review, a survey, and a series of webinar dialogues, USAID and the U.S. Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) solicited input from private sector actors, including developers, project financiers, manufacturers and technical assistance service providers, on the challenges they face to market entry in emerging markets, and their suggestions for improving market competitiveness.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Potential Impact of Offshore Wind Energy on a Future Power System in the U.S. Northeast

This study aims to understand and quantify the potential impact of offshore wind on a future electricity system in the U.S. Northeast. In this analysis, a detailed representation of the Northeast power system is adopted, using a generation portfolio for 2024 paired with offshore wind nameplate capacities of 0 gigawatts (GW), 2 GW, and 7 GW. The analysis identifies points of offshore wind interconnection in the ISO-New England and New York Independent System Operator control areas and uses hourly wind profiles from the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit. Hourly simulations of the 2024 power system operations show an ability to accommodate the prescribed offshore wind capacities by adapting the system's generation dispatch. Curtailment levels of offshore wind range between 4% and 5%. Offshore wind generation displaces primarily natural-gas combined-cycle generation; however, requires increased flexibility from combined cycles through more frequent start-ups. The number of hours with transmission congestion increases because of offshore wind injection, with varying impact on a subregional level. Offshore wind's capacity credit was found to be 14.5%-28.3% and is lower than estimated in other large-scale power system studies, in part because this study considered a different weather year and a power system representation with higher shares of solar PV and onshore wind. The reliability contribution of resources is a topic area identified for more research and collaboration. The 7-GW scenario shows a reduction in locational marginal price of 11%, with production cost savings of up to 18% compared to the 0-GW scenario.

17 WIND ENERGY↗