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At least 487 records · Page 27

A thermally-limited bubble growth model for the relaxation time of superheated fuels

Here, we propose a novel approach to evaluate the relaxation time of vapor bubble growth in the context of the flash boiling of a superheated liquid. In alternative to the empirical correlation derived from superheated water experiments almost fifty years ago, the new model describes the thermally-dominated growth of vapor bubbles in terms that are dependent on the local Jakob number (the ratio of sensible heat to latent heat during phase change) and the number density of vapor bubbles. The model is tested by plugging the resulting relaxation time into the Homogenous Relaxation Model (HRM). Flash-boiling simulations carried out with HRM are compared with n-pentane (C 5 H 12 ) injection and boil-off experiments conducted with a real-size, axial-hole, transparent gasoline injector discharging into a constant-pressure vessel. The long-distance microscopy images from the experiments, processed to derive the projected liquid volume (PLV) of the spray, provide a unique set of time-resolved validation data for direct fuel injection simulations. At conditions ranging from flaring to mild and minimal flash boiling, we show that switching to the new relaxation time improves the agreement with the measured PLV profiles with respect to the standard empirical model. Particularly at flaring conditions, the predicted increase in gas cooling caused by rapid vapor production is shown to be more consistent with the observed boil-off.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Use of the BSRN Data as A Benchmark for the POWER Hourly DHI and DNI and In Validating Derived Hourly GTI

The satellite-based CERES SYN1deg hourly data is the source data of the POWER GIS solar data that covers 2001 to near present. The SYN1deg(Ed4.1) hourly GHI agrees well with the BSRN data, but the hourly DHI and DirHI (Direct Horizontal Irradiance) are positively and negatively, respectively, biased with appreciable magnitudes. The hourly DNI, derived by dividing the DirHI by cos(SZA), or the cosine of the solar zenith angle, is therefore negatively biased. Based on the statistics of comparisons with the BSRN data, we performed bias corrections on the hourly DHI and DNI. The corrections were executed in the 3-D phase space of latitude, cos(SZA), and cloud fraction (CLFR). The isotropic model is then used to derive the hourly global tilted irradiance (GTI). For validation purpose, we applied the isotropic model to the BSRN data at the original 1-, 2-, 3- or 5-minute interval. The satellite-based hourly GTI shows good agreement with their BSRN counterpart. We also examined two monthly-mean-based methods that empirically derive monthly mean GTI and DNI from monthly mean GHI and from both monthly mean GHI and DHI. The monthly-mean-based results compare favorably with the hourly-mean-based results. The GEWEX SRB (V4-IP) provides POWER with daily mean GHI for the years before the CERES era, and the data were corrected using quantile mapping by referencing the CERES SYN1deg data. We used the Kolmogorov -Smirnov test (K-S test) and Cramer-von Mises test to examine how well the results agree with the BSRN data. We found that if we set the lower limit for the daily mean GHI to 30 W m-2, the data can pass the K-S test at 0.01 significance level and the Cramer-von Mises test at 0.001 significance level. If no lower limit is set on the daily means, the data fail both tests. The satellite-based CERES SYN1deg hourly data is the source data of the POWER GIS solar data that covers 2001 to near present. The SYN1deg(Ed4.1) hourly GHI agrees well with the BSRN data, but the hourly DHI and DirHI (Direct Horizontal Irradiance) are positively and negatively, respectively, biased with appreciable magnitudes. The hourly DNI, derived by dividing the DirHI by cos(SZA), or the cosine of the solar zenith angle, is therefore negatively biased. Based on the statistics of comparisons with the BSRN data, we performed bias corrections on the hourly DHI and DNI. The corrections were executed in the 3-D phase space of latitude, cos(SZA), and cloud fraction (CLFR). The isotropic model is then used to derive the hourly global tilted irradiance (GTI). For validation purpose, we applied the isotropic model to the BSRN data at the original 1-, 2-, 3- or 5-minute interval. The satellite-based hourly GTI shows good agreement with their BSRN counterpart. We also examined two monthly-mean-based methods that empirically derive monthly mean GTI and DNI from monthly mean GHI and from both monthly mean GHI and DHI. The monthly-mean-based results compare favorably with the hourly-mean-based results. The GEWEX SRB (V4-IP) provides POWER with daily mean GHI for the years before the CERES era, and the data were corrected using quantile mapping by referencing the CERES SYN1deg data. We used the Kolmogorov -Smirnov test (K-S test) and Cramer-von Mises test to examine how well the results agree with the BSRN data. We found that if we set the lower limit for the daily mean GHI to 30 W m-2, the data can pass the K-S test at 0.01 significance level and the Cramer-von Mises test at 0.001 significance level. If no lower limit is set on the daily means, the data fail both tests.

Taiping Zhang↗

Aerosol Models from the AERONET Database: Application to Surface Reflectance Validation Satellite Data

Aerosols play a critical role in radiative transfer within the atmosphere, and they have a significant impact on climate change. In this paper, we propose and implement a framework for developing an aerosol model using their microphysical properties. Such microphysical properties as the size distribution, the complex refractive index, and the percentage of sphericity are derived from the global AERosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). These measurements, however, are typically retrieved when almucantar measurement procedures are performed (i.e., early mornings and late afternoons with clear sky) and might not have a temporal correspondence to a satellite overpass time, so a valid validation of satellite-derived products cannot be carried out. To address this problem of temporal inconsistency of satellite and ground-based measurements, we developed an approach to retrieve these microphysical properties (and the corresponding aerosol model) using the optical thickness at 440 nm, τ440, and the Ångström coefficient between 440 and 870 nm, α440–870. Such aerosol models were developed for 851 AERONET sites within the last 28 years. Obtained results suggest that empirically microphysical properties can be retrieved with uncertainties of up to 23 %. An exception is the imaginary part of the refractive index ni, for which the derived uncertainties reach up to 38 %. These specific parametric models of aerosol can be used for the studies when retrieval of microphysical properties is required as well as validation of satellite-derived products over land. Specifically, we demonstrate the usefulness of the aerosol models to validate surface reflectance records over land derived from optical remote sensing sensors. We then quantify the propagation of uncertainties in the surface reflectance due to uncertainties with the aerosol model retrieval that is used as a reference from radiative transfer simulations. Results indicate that individual aerosol microphysical properties can impact uncertainties in surface reflectance retrievals between 3.5 × 10(exp -5) to 1 × 10(exp -3) (in reflectance units). The overall impact of microphysical properties combined yields an overall uncertainty in surface reflectance <0.004 (in reflectance units). That corresponds, for example, to 1 to 3 % of the retrieved surface reflectance in the red spectral band (620–670 nm) by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. These uncertainty values are well below the specification (0.005 + 0.05ρ; ρ is the retrieved surface reflectance) used for the MODIS atmospheric correction.

Jean-Claude Roger↗

Combined Heat Transfer in High-Porosity High-Temperature Fibrous Insulations: Theory and Experimental Validation

Combined radiation and conduction heat transfer through various high-temperature, high-porosity, unbonded (loose) fibrous insulations was modeled based on first principles. The diffusion approximation was used for modeling the radiation component of heat transfer in the optically thick insulations. The relevant parameters needed for the heat transfer model were derived from experimental data. Semi-empirical formulations were used to model the solid conduction contribution of heat transfer in fibrous insulations with the relevant parameters inferred from thermal conductivity measurements at cryogenic temperatures in a vacuum. The specific extinction coefficient for radiation heat transfer was obtained from high-temperature steady-state thermal measurements with large temperature gradients maintained across the sample thickness in a vacuum. Standard gas conduction modeling was used in the heat transfer formulation. This heat transfer modeling methodology was applied to silica, two types of alumina, and a zirconia-based fibrous insulation, and to a variation of opacified fibrous insulation (OFI). OFI is a class of insulations manufactured by embedding efficient ceramic opacifiers in various unbonded fibrous insulations to significantly attenuate the radiation component of heat transfer. The heat transfer modeling methodology was validated by comparison with more rigorous analytical solutions and with standard thermal conductivity measurements. The validated heat transfer model is applicable to various densities of these high-porosity insulations as long as the fiber properties are the same (index of refraction, size distribution, orientation, and length). Furthermore, the heat transfer data for these insulations can be obtained at any static pressure in any working gas environment without the need to perform tests in various gases at various pressures.

Daryabeigi, Kamran↗

An FEM-Based Peridynamic Model for Failure Analysis of Unidirectional Fiber-Reinforced Laminates

To predict the mixed damage modes of unidirectional fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) laminates under dynamic loading, an FEM-based peridynamic model is introduced in this paper. Based on its geometric structure and material composition, a long fiber lamina is considered a transversely isotropic medium as a result of homogenization at the meso-scale. The laminated structure is modeled by stacking surface mesh layers with arbitrary fiber angles along the thickness direction. The peridynamic bonds between Gauss points connect the separated elements. These bonds are classified as inner-layer bonds and inter-layer bonds. To represent the anisotropy of a laminate, the micro-elastic modulus of the inner-layer and inter-layer bonds is calculated from the anisotropic engineering material constants separately. To capture complex failure behaviors of laminate structures, an empirical damage model is proposed for the tension/ compression breakage of peridynamic bonds. This damage model can control the in-plane and delamination failure process. Finally, benchmark tests are conducted to validate the elastic response of laminates under dynamic loading. In terms of damage analysis, the proposed model can capture the complex damage modes and resistive force of laminate structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Comprehensive framework for data-driven model form discovery of the closure laws in thermal-hydraulics codes

The two-phase two-fluid model is a basis of many thermal-hydraulics codes used in design, licensing, and safety considerations of nuclear power plants. Thermal-hydraulics codes rely on the closure laws to close the system of conservation equations and describe the interactions between phases. These laws, derived from years of experimental investigations, are semi-empirical correlations that lack generality and have a limited range of applicability. Increase of computational power, availability of new experiments, and development of high-fidelity simulations has increased the number of validation data. The discrepancies between the code predictions and the validation data are a great source of knowledge. Missing physics that are not included in the model but are important for the considered phenomena can be discovered by propagating the information from the experimental results through the model. Furthermore, physics-discovered data-driven model form (P3DM) methodology integrates available integral effect tests and separate effects tests to determine the necessary corrections to the model form of the closure laws. In contrast to existing calibration techniques, the methodology modifies the functional form of the closure laws. Based on the functional form of the correction, the missing physics that were not included in the original model can be discovered. The methodology provides the alternative to the machine learning approach, in which the model is discovered in the form of the intractable black-box relation. In this work, the methodology was applied to the CTF subchannel code to improve the prediction of the two-phase flow phenomena.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An experimentally validated evaporative phase change heat transfer model for low mass flux applications using R134a in plate heat exchangers

Plate frame heat exchangers are common in liquid-coupled vapor compression systems due to their compactness and ease of maintenance. In some of these systems, the refrigerant within the evaporator can enter the heat exchanger as a subcooled liquid. As a result, the refrigerant passes through three different phases: single-phase liquid, two-phase fluid, and a superheated vapor. Unfortunately, there have been limited prior studies that have identified the best method to predict performance under these circumstances. Furthermore, previous investigations have not evaluated refrigerant evaporation in large industrial sized plate frame heat exchangers under conditions experienced in the present study experimental test facility, especially at mass fluxes below 7 kg m –2 s –1 . In the present investigation, a model was developed to predict the performance of plate and frame heat exchangers when the fluid enters as a subcooled liquid and exits as a superheated vapor. The model used full-sized plate heat exchanger geometry that was discretized into 20 sections to accurately capture local heat transfer and pressure drop effects. The model was validated using an R134a counter flow heat exchanger used in a turbo-compression cooling system test facility that had subcooled liquid entering the evaporator at low mass fluxes. A variety of empirical correlations were evaluated to determine what combination yielded the best predictive capability over the following range of conditions: 5.8 < G < 6.8 kg m –2 s –1 , 2 < q” < 2.8 kW m –2 , and 10 °C < T sat < 15 °C. When the correlations used a fixed control volume length in the heat flux calculation, the most accurate combination resulted in a mean absolute error of 5.5%. Finally, future studies can use the approach described here to optimize heat exchanger size and performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Stress intensity factors for long, deep surface flaws in plates under extensional fields

Using a singular solution for a part circular crack, a Taylor Series Correction Method (TSCM) was verified for extracting stress intensity factors from photoelastic data. Photoelastic experiments were then conducted on plates with part circular and flat bottomed cracks for flaw depth to thickness ratios of 0.25, 0.50 and 0.75 and for equivalent flaw depth to equivalent ellipse length values ranging from 0.066 to 0.319. Experimental results agreed well with the Smith theory but indicated that the use of the ''equivalent'' semi-elliptical flaw results was not valid for a/2c less than 0.20. Best overall agreement for the moderate (a/t approximately 0.5) to deep flaws (a/t approximatelly 0.75) and a/2c greater than 0.15 was found with a semi-empirical theory, when compared on the basis of equivalent flaw depth and area.

Harms, A. E.↗

Numerical solution of three-dimensional unsteady transonic flow over wings including inviscid/viscous interactions

A method is presented for computing the unsteady three-dimensional transonic flowfield about twin wings of arbitrary planform and section geometry including the effects of inviscid/viscous interaction. Dominant effects of the shock-boundary-layer interaction are accounted for by a simple empirically defined model, while viscous regions adjacent to the wing surface and along the trailing wake are described by a set of integral equations appropriate for two-dimensional turbulent flows. The validity of the proposed method is verified by comparison with steady three-dimensional experimental data and a solution of more exact equations for a typical transport wing configuration.

Rizzetta, D. P.↗

ACTS Propagation Measurements in Maryland and Virginia

Rapid growth in new satellite services incorporating very small aperture terminals (VSAT) and ultra small aperture terminals (USAT) is expected in the coming years. Small size terminals allow for widespread use of satellite services in small business and domestic applications. Due to congestion of lower frequency bands such as C and Ku, most of these services will use Ka-band (2/20 GHz) frequencies. Propagation impairments produced by the troposphere is a limiting factor for the effective use of the 20/30 GHz band and the use of smaller Earth terminals makes it difficult to provide sufficient link margins for propagation related outages. In this context, reliable prediction of propagation impairments for low margin systems becomes important. Due to the complexity of propagation phenomena propagation modeling is mainly attempted on an empirical basis. As such, the availability of reliable measured data that extend to probability levels well in excess of the traditional limit of 1 percent is of great importance in the development, validation, and refinement of propagation models. The beacon payload on the Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) together with the propagation measurement terminals developed under the NASA ACTS propagation program provide an excellent opportunity to collect such data on a long-term basis. This paper presents the results of ACTS propagation measurements conducted in the Washington, DC metropolitan area by COMSAT Laboratories.

Dissanayake, Asoka↗

Aircraft System Noise Prediction Uncertainty Quantification for a Hybrid Wing Body Subsonic Transport Concept

Aircraft system level noise prediction for advanced, unconventional concepts has undergone significant improvement over the past two decades. The prediction modeling uncertainty must be quantified so that potential benefits of unconventional configurations, which are outside of the range of empirical models, can be reliably assessed. This paper builds on previous work in an effort to improve estimates of element prediction uncertainties where the prediction methodology has been improved, or new experimental validation data are available, to provide an estimate of the system level uncertainty in the prediction process. In general, the uncertainty of the prediction will be strongly dependent on the aircraft configuration as well as which technologies are integrated. While the quantitative uncertainty values contained here are specific to the hybrid wing body design presented, the underlying process is the same regardless of configuration. A refined process for determining the uncertainty for each element of the noise prediction is detailed in this paper. The system level uncertainty in the prediction of the aircraft noise is determined at the three certification points, using a Monte Carlo method. Comparisons with previous work show a reduction of 1 EPNdB in the 95%coverage interval of the cumulative noise level. The largest impediment for continued reduction in uncertainty for the hybrid wing body concept is the need for improved modeling and validation experiments for fan noise, propulsion airframe aeroacoustic effects, and the Krueger flap, which comprise the bulk of the uncertainty in the cumulative certification noise level.

June, Jason C.↗

Optimized MODIS Channel Selection to Improve the NASA CERES FluxByCloudType Product Fluxes

The NASA Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has provided the climate community more than a 20-year record of top of the atmosphere (TOA) reflected shortwave (SW) and emitted longwave (LW) fluxes. The fluxes used to monitor the Earth’s energy balance as well as for climate model validation and cloud feedback studies. One of the largest uncertainties in climate models is the response of clouds in feedback studies. To reduce this uncertainty requires more stringently validation of model generated fluxes by cloud-type. Rather than relying on radiative transfer model generated fluxes from observed cloud-type retrievals, the CERES FluxByCloudType (FBCT) product, relies on MODIS empirical narrowband to broadband relationships to convert the cloudy portions of the CERES footprints into fluxes. The overcast footprint and sub-footprint cloud layer fluxes are then stratified by 7 pressure layers and 6 optical depth bins and temporally averaged into daily and monthly regional cloud-type fluxes. The CERES project analyzed a total of 19 MODIS channels for use in the next generation FBCT product narrowband to broadband conversion. This was accomplished by comparing the narrowband to broadband RMS errors from all possible 5-channel combinations. The SW and LW optimized channels were selected by also considering analogous geostationary, MODIS and VIIRS imager channels as well as channel combinations that provided the lowest RMS errors across all surface types. The optimized channel combinations will be tested in the FBCT algorithm to investigate any cloud fraction, effective pressure, optical depth, PW, solar and view angle, surface type and regional narrowband to broadband dependencies.

CERES↗

Determining Simulation Fidelity Necessary for Evaluating Onboard Vehicle Capabilities and Crew Roles on Long Duration Exploration Missions Beyond Low-Earth Orbit

Identification of onboard vehicle capabilities and crew roles and responsibilities necessary for achieving effective human-systems collaboration will require iterative cycles of concept development and empirical evaluation of human performance in complex operations. This report presents the results of an effort to lay the groundwork for determining the level of fidelity of simulated environments most suitable for validating concepts and evaluating implementations of a new Human Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA) that will support the flight crew on long duration exploration missions beyond low-Earth orbit. To do that, we conducted a literature review on simulation fidelity and surveyed simulation capabilities inside and outside of NASA used in NASA-sponsored research. We also analyzed two International Space Station (ISS) vehicle anomalies to identify the types of scenario events and crew activities that may need to be simulated. Our survey findings reveal that most NASA simulation facilities are designed to achieve high physical fidelity while HSIA risk mitigation requires simulation emphasizing task and functional fidelity aspects. A trade analysis shows that, for standard and requirement development, evaluation conducted using synthetic task environments with inexperienced participants will support testing a wide variety of conditions and yield findings robust enough to be generalized to a wide variety of designs on which developed standards and requirements might be levied while allowing human performance standard measures to be collected using consistent methods across tasks and conditions. For technology/tool development, because findings will only need to be generalized to the actual target environment in which the technology/tool will be used, it is more suitable to evaluate the prototypes in a scaled world that preserves functional relationships present in the actual target environment with intended user populations. To wrap up, we give an overview of a well-known synthetical task environment in the space domain and discuss what it takes to construct a synthetic task environment.

simulation fidelity↗

Overview of CFD Validation Experiments for Circulation Control Applications at NASA

Circulation control is a viable active flow control approach that can be used to meet the NASA Subsonic Fixed Wing project s Cruise Efficient Short Take Off and Landing goals. Currently, circulation control systems are primarily designed using empirical methods. However, large uncertainty in our ability to predict circulation control performance has led to the development of advanced CFD methods. This paper provides an overview of a systematic approach to developing CFD tools for basic and advanced circulation control applications. This four-step approach includes "Unit", "Benchmar", "Subsystem", and "Complete System" experiments. The paper emphasizes the ongoing and planned 2-D and 3-D physics orientated experiments with corresponding CFD efforts. Sample data are used to highlight the challenges involved in conducting circulation control computations and experiments.

Jones, G. S.↗

Transferable Calibration Standard Developed for Quantitative Raman Scattering Diagnostics in High-Pressure Flames

Researchers from NASA Glenn Research Center s Combustion Branch and the Ohio Aerospace Institute (OAI) have developed a transferable calibration standard for an optical technique called spontaneous Raman scattering (SRS) in high-pressure flames. SRS is perhaps the only technique that provides spatially and temporally resolved, simultaneous multiscalar measurements in turbulent flames. Such measurements are critical for the validation of numerical models of combustion. This study has been a combined experimental and theoretical effort to develop a spectral calibration database for multiscalar diagnostics using SRS in high-pressure flames. However, in the past such measurements have used a one-of-a-kind experimental setup and a setup-dependent calibration procedure to empirically account for spectral interferences, or crosstalk, among the major species of interest. Such calibration procedures, being non-transferable, are prohibitively expensive to duplicate. A goal of this effort is to provide an SRS calibration database using transferable standards that can be implemented widely by other researchers for both atmospheric-pressure and high-pressure (less than 30 atm) SRS studies. A secondary goal of this effort is to provide quantitative multiscalar diagnostics in high pressure environments to validate computational combustion codes.

Nguyen, Quang-Viet↗

Scaling dynamics in low-salt-rejection reverse osmosis for high-salinity produced water desalination: Mechanistic modeling and membrane autopsy

Membrane scaling remains a critical barrier to the reliable operation of desalination systems, particularly for hypersaline produced water (PW) treatment. This study fills the knowledge gap of autopsy-based model validation for PW desalination by elucidating scaling mechanisms in a Low-Salt-Rejection Reverse Osmosis (LSRRO) system through the integration of pilot-scale experimentation and complementary modeling approaches. A semi-empirical modeling framework was developed and applied to a multistage pilot LSRRO system equipped with nanofiltration and RO membranes treating high-salinity PW from the Permian Basin. Water quality analysis showed that total dissolved solids decreased from ~130,000 mg/L to ~1900 mg/L in the permeate, then further reduced to ~300 mg/L by a second-pass RO. Two different thermodynamic modeling approaches were evaluated: the first extends the LSRRO framework by incorporating system complexity and scaling phenomena, whereas the second method explicitly captures concentration polarization in localized supersaturation. Both methods illustrate the tendency for carbonate and sulfate scaling throughout the stages. Membrane autopsies revealed a silica-dominated deposit matrix, localized CaSO 4 at Stage 2, and minor barite/celestite despite their prominence in model predictions. Quantum-chemical calculations indicated silica scaling can be rationalized by favorable adsorption of H 4 SiO 4 on Fe-oxide surfaces (ΔG ≈ −44 kJ/mol), providing a kinetic pathway for interfacial inorganic polymerization even when bulk equilibrium predictions are conservative. Overall, the thermodynamic scaling modeling and membrane autopsy revealed heterogeneous, localized deposits with limited impact on LSRRO performance, while quantum analysis rationalized the thermodynamically unfavorable precipitation formation under bulk equilibrium, reconciling model–autopsy discrepancies. These insights support targeted pretreatment and silica-specific antiscalants to extend membrane lifetime and increase recovery, providing a transferable framework for hypersaline water desalination systems. The combined experimental–computational approach provides new mechanistic insight into scaling in hypersaline membrane systems and establishes a transferable framework for predicting and mitigating scaling in next-generation desalination technologies.

Low-salt-rejection reverse osmosis↗

Deployment of BISON models of fuel restructuring at high burnup and related fission gas behavior in UO 2

This milestone report details the advancements made in fiscal year 2024 under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program to improve the modeling of fission gas behavior in high burnup UO 2 nuclear fuel in the BISON fuel performance code. As nuclear fuel is pushed to higher burnups, significant microstructural changes occur within the fuel, including the formation of a high burnup structure (HBS) on the pellet rim and a dark zone deeper within the pellet. These regions, characterized by subgrain formation and increased pore densities, have critical implications for fission gas behavior and release, which are not well understood. The modeling capabilities in BISON did not adequately predict these phenomena, leading to an underestimation of fuel restructuring and - potentially - of fission gas release. To address these gaps, this milestone focused on three key objectives: (1) reviewing and assessing Sifgrs's capabilities for low burnup fuel, on which high burnup capabilities rely, (2) validating and expanding HBS fission gas modeling capabilities, including investigating mechanisms for fission gas release from HBS, and (3) expanding Sifgrs to enable modeling of dark zone formation and its effects on fission gas behavior. These objectives were achieved and are described herein. The achievements of this NEAMS milestone are significant for the industry's goal of burnup extension. The improved predictive modeling capabilities for both low- and high-burnup conditions enhance our understanding of fuel performance under both normal operations and transient scenarios. Although goals were reached, future work is necessary to validate these models against experimental data and quantify their accuracy in different conditions. In parallel, mechanistic modeling efforts should continue to extend and refine these capabilities to increase accuracy while reducing reliance on empirical models. This will ensure robust performance across a broader range of conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Forecasting Commercial Building Electricity Consumption, Zone Airflow and Zone Temperature: Update - Development of a Generalized Machine Learning Approach

The U.S. power grid is being transformed to make it smarter, more efficient, and cleaner. This transformation is leading to the addition of a significant of energy generated by distributed, variable, and renewable resources. Because of the variable nature of renewable generation, the short- and long-term supply and demand imbalances are less predictable, and conventional approaches to mitigating the imbalances will be less efficient or cost effective. To address this challenge and to support the mission and the vision of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Building Technologies Office has developed a Grid-Interactive Efficient Building Strategy. The strategy focuses on simultaneously improving building energy efficiency and supporting reliability and resilience of the electric grid more efficiently and at a lower cost. In addition, EERE and DOE’s Office of Electricity created an initiative led by DOE and supported by the national laboratories under the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium structure to enhance grid modernization. The work reported in this document is part of the first set of projects funded under the initiative to design, develop, and validate scalable transactive control technologies for the commercial buildings sector. Transactive controls requires the ability of individual end-use loads to express flexibility as a function of a transactive signal (e.g., price). Empirical grey- and black-box models have been widely used to express flexibility. Although this approach is generally easy to construct and simple to use, it does not capture non-linear behavior that some end-use loads represent. Therefore, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) with support from Western Washington University conducted this research to explore the use of deep machine learning (ML) techniques. The work reported in this document is limited to forecasting whole building electricity consumption, the zone airflow and the zone temperature predictions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗