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At least 487 records · Page 27

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Enhancing Long-Term Trend Simulation of OH Through the Synergy of Model Simulations and Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO 2 and HCHO Retrievals

During the last few years, tremendous progress has been made to develop an efficient parameterization module using agile machine learning techniques. The aim of this module is to provide dynamic response of the tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) to its major drivers, including trace gases, aerosols, clouds, and meteorology. This module, named ECCOH (pronounced “echo”) and implemented in NASA’s GEOS-5 global model, offers an unrealized opportunity to unravel the convoluted response of OH to its underlying drivers while approaching the accuracy of full-chemistry without incurring excessive computational costs, making it suitable for climate models. However, the accurate representation of OH in ECCOH poses challenges due to the lack of representation of some of its critical inputs such as the abundance of NO 2 and HCHO concentrations. As such, we leverage the well-characterized satellite observations of NO2 and HCHO columns from Aura OMI to enhance their representation in ECCOH using an optimal interpolation method for the time period of 2005 - present. We show how the inclusion of OMI information can affect the spatiotemporal variability and long-term trends of OH, CO, and CH 4 across the globe. Additionally, we underscore the necessity of obtaining high-fidelity information regarding tropospheric ozone from the southern hemisphere from space, a region currently lacking full verification in models, posing a challenge to get a reasonable amount of chemical sink for CH 4 .

OH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Biomechanical drivers of the evolution of butterflies and moths with a coilable proboscis

Current biomechanical models suggest that butterflies and moths use their proboscis as a drinking straw pulling nectar as a continuous liquid column. Our analyses revealed an alternative mode for fluid uptake: drinking bubble trains that help defeat drag. We combined X-ray phase-contrast imaging, optical video microscopy, micro-computed tomography, phylogenetic models of evolution and fluid mechanics models of bubble-train formation to understand the biomechanics of butterfly and moth feeding. Our models suggest that the bubble-train mechanism appeared in the early evolution of butterflies and moths with a proboscis long enough to coil. We propose that, in addition to the ability to drink a continuous column of fluid from pools, the ability to exploit fluid films by capitalizing on bubble trains would have expanded the range of available food sources, facilitating diversification of Lepidoptera.

Palaoro, Alexandre V.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of Extremes and Compound Impacts: Applications of Machine Learning and Interpretable Neural Networks

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal area III by exploring data fusion, learning and explainable AI methods in characterizing hydrological extremes and interconnections. It also addresses Focal area II by using probabilistic AI and ensemble ML for predicting extremes and compound extremes. Science Challenge: A key question associated with the integrated water (or hydrological) cycle grand challenge in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) strategic plan, is how the frequency and intensity of hydrological events will change. Prediction of the tail behavior (extremes) of the hydrological cycle is especially challenging, because of their stochasticity and low probability. These extreme events and their compound impacts have significant societal and economic consequences. It is anticipated for the next-generation Earth System models (ESMs), that model predictability of the water cycle will improve with increased resolution (e.g., regionally refined E3SM), advanced software and computational architectures, and improved model physics based on the data from ARM measurements and high-fidelity models. However, the challenges for predictability of low-probability high-impact extreme events will unlikely be alleviated with conventional modeling and data-driven approaches, as ESMs are calibrated largely for capturing the high-frequency mean climate states. Recent AI and ML applications have shown great potential in quantifying well-defined climate extremes (e.g., supervised learning of tropical cyclones/atmospheric rivers by ClimateNet1) but few efforts are dedicated to compound events, extreme drivers and uncertainty estimation. We envision the opportunity to develop and apply ML and interpretable AI methods extended on the existing efforts, specifically, for: (1) identification of compound extremes, (2) diagnosing drivers of extremes, (3) bias correction in extreme predictions and (4) probabilistic modeling of extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Building a better framework for evaluating human well-being impacts in global change analysis: The example of energy security

Human well-being can be greatly impacted by the global environmental and socio-economic change captured in Integrated Models of Global Change (IMGCs). Though most IMGCs address some aspects of well-being, their underlying modeling approach and ‘philosophy’ differ widely, and some key elements – like energy security – are omitted. In this report, we describe a project in which we set out to a create a framework through which the well-being dimensions of the household are connected to key drivers of socio-economic and environmental change – and how the needed metrics, data and modeling methods can be brought to bear. We focus on the well-being dimensions of energy, and lay out the necessary elements to capturing household energy security – using household energy burden as the relevant metric. We begin by showing the conceptual linkage of energy burden to environmental drivers like temperature change, using a simple and straightforward conceptual framework. We then go further to use the example of GCAM-USA to show how some key analytical features of the model can provide insight into how energy security across different groups can change along alternative pathways to sustainability. We compare our preliminary assessment of household energy burden to existing data and suggest further steps to improve and refine this analysis in future research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1988

Operating characteristics of a 60 cm and a 10 cm electric arc-driven shock-tube

This paper describes the current status of the operating characteristics of the electric arc-driven shock-tube facility at Ames Research Center, focusing on its potential usefulness in the current and anticipated future applications. The paper specifically addresses the questions as to: (1) how well the behavior of the arc driver is understood and controlled, (2) how well the facility is equipped to test low-density, very-high-velocity nonequilibrium flow regimes, and (3) how closely the facility is expected to produce an equilibrium hypersonic flow when operated in shock-tunnel modes. For these issues, it is shown that: (1) a plasma kinetics model of the exploding wire closely describes the arc behavior in the driver, (2) the facility can produce a spectroscopically-clean flow in a low density regime with a shock velocity of 13 km/sec in air when used with an aluminum driven tube, and (3) when operated as a shock-tunnel, the high enthalpy flow in the test section is expected to deviate only slightly from the perfect equilibrium flow conditions at enthalpies corresponding to flight speeds of 5 km/sec or less.

Sharma, Surendra P.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Interpreting the spatial distribution of soil properties with a physically-based distributed hydrological model

Digital soil maps are commonly data-driven as the development of physically-based models for soil mapping is difficult due to the complexity of soils. However, physically-based hydrologic models have been successful in simulating water dynamics. Since water movement is a major driver of pedogenesis, the physical rules that govern water movement might help explain and predict the spatial variation of soil properties. Here, we demonstrate the novel use of a physically-based, distributed hydrologic model to inform the spatial distribution of soil properties. The Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was utilized to simulate soil moisture content (SM) and water table depth (WTD) in two hillslope catchments under pasture and forest management wherein hydrologic model outputs were then compared with soil properties measured in situ. SM sensors and wells were installed in both catchments to validate simulations of soil water movement via Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (E). In-situ observations were made at 87 sites within both catchments to study the connection between simulated water movement (SM and WTD) and observed soil properties, namely the depth and thickness of the argillic (Bt), fragic (Btx), and C horizons, and the depth of redoximorphic features. The simulated time series of SM and WTD were also clustered per season using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), which identified similarity among time series at varying timescales. Model validation suggested that simulations of surficial SM (0–20 cm) were reasonable (E = 0.45), however, simulated subsurface SM (45–60 cm) and WTD were not sufficiently accurate. The thickness of Btx horizons were spatially grouped into different populations by SM clusters from every season except spring. For the other properties, only SM dynamics of specific seasons grouped into significantly different populations, suggesting that the explanatory power of simulated water movement varies seasonally and was greater during winter. Here, we show clusters of simulated SM separated soil properties into statistically different populations, showing that hydrologic models could inform areas that followed different water dynamics related to pedogenic trajectories and related biogeochemical processes not necessarily simulated by the model. As such, physically-based modeling of water dynamics can, therefore, inform and advance digital soil mapping by linking water movement patterns stemming from hydrologic model outputs to spatial patterns of soil properties and pedogenesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Future increases in Amazonia water stress from CO 2 physiology and deforestation

Several different drivers are contributing to climate change within the Amazon basin, including forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols, plant physiology responses to rising CO 2 , and deforestation. Attribution among these drivers has not been quantified for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate simulations. Here we identify the contribution of CO 2 physiology and deforestation to future hydroclimate change in the Amazon basin by combining information from four experiments and eight different Earth system models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Together, forcing from CO 2 physiology and deforestation account for about 44% of the projected annual precipitation decline, 48% of surface relative humidity decline and 11% of warming over the Amazon basin by 2100 for SSP3-7.0. Further, other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 SSP simulations have similar contributions from the two drivers. Insight from our attribution analysis can aid in identifying research priorities aimed at reducing uncertainty in future projections of water availability, carbon dynamics and wildfire risk.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2023

Future Increases in Amazonia Water 1 Stress from CO2 Physiology and Deforestation

Several different drivers are contributing to climate change within the Amazon basin, including forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols, plant physiology responses to rising CO 2 , and deforestation. Attribution among these drivers has not been quantified for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate simulations. Here we identify the contribution of CO 2 physiology and deforestation to future hydroclimate change in the Amazon basin by combining information from four experiments and eight different Earth system models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Together, forcing from CO 2 physiology and deforestation account for about 44% of the projected annual precipitation decline, 48% of surface relative humidity decline and 11% of warming over the Amazon basin by 2100 for SSP3-7.0. Other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 SSP simulations have similar contributions from the two drivers. Insight from our attribution analysis can aid in identifying research priorities aimed at reducing uncertainty in future projections of water availability, carbon dynamics and wildfire risk.

Yue Li↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Response of a Semiactive Suspension System with Hysteretic Nonlinear Energy Sink Based on Random Excitation by means of Computer Simulation

This paper aims to investigate the property and behavior of the hysteretic nonlinear energy sink (HNES) coupled to a half vehicle system which is a nine-degree-of-freedom, nonlinear, and semiactive suspension system in order to improve the ride comfort and increase the stability in shock mitigation by using the computer simulation method. The HNES model is a semiactive suspension device, which comprises the famous Bouc–Wen (B-W) model employed to describe the force produced by both the purely hysteretic spring and linear elastic spring of potentially negative stiffness connected in parallel, for the half vehicle system. Nine nonlinear motion equations of the half vehicle system are derived in terms of the seven displacements and the two dimensionless hysteretic variables, which are integrated numerically by employing the direct time integration method for studying both the variables of vertical displacements, velocities, accelerations, chassis pitch angle, and the ride comfort and driver safety, respectively, based on the bump and random road inputs of the pseudoexcitation method as excitation signal. Simulation results show that, compared with the HNES model and the magnetorheological (MR) model coupled to the half vehicle system, the ride comfort and stability have been evidently improved. A successful validation process has been performed, which indicated that both the ride comfort and driver safety properties of the HNES model coupled to half vehicle significantly improved.

Chen, Hui↗

DOE OSTI2024

STITCHES: a Python package to amalgamate existing Earth system model output into new scenario realizations

Understanding the interaction between humans and the Earth system is a computationally daunting task, with many possible approaches depending on resources available and questions of interest. For example, state-of-the-art impact models require decade-long time series of relatively high frequency, spatially resolved and often multiple variables representing climatic impact-drivers (Ruane et al., 2022). Most commonly these are derived from the outputs of detailed, computationally expensive Earth System Models (ESMs) run according to a standard, limited set of future scenarios, the latest being the SSP-RCPs run under CMIP6/ScenarioMIP (Eyring et al., 2016; O’Neill et al., 2016). At the time of writing, O’Neill et al. (2016) has been cited more than 1750 times and Eyring et al. (2016) more than 5000 times, highlighting the broad, general applications of this data. Often, however, impact modeling seeks to explore new scenarios that were not part of the ScenarioMIP protocol, and/or needs a larger set of initial condition ensemble members than are typically available to quantify the effects of ESM internal variability. In addition, the recognition that the human and Earth systems are fundamentally intertwined, and may feature potentially significant feedback loops, is making integrated, simultaneous modeling of the coupled human-Earth system increasingly necessary, if computationally challenging with most existing tools (Thornton et al., 2017). For impact modelers, climate model emulators can be the answer to meet both the needs of: 1) creating realizations for novel scenarios and 2) achieving a simplified, computationally tractable representation of ESM behavior in a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. We proposed a new, comprehensive approach to such emulation of gridded, multivariate ESM outputs for novel scenarios without the computational cost of a full ESM, STITCHES (Tebaldi et al., 2022). The approach outlined in Tebaldi et al. (2022) should be extensible to future CMIP eras, although the STITCHES software at present is strictly focused on CMIP6/ScenarioMIP data hosted on Pangeo (https://gallery.pangeo.io/repos/pangeo-gallery/cmip6/). The corresponding STITCHES Python package uses existing archives of ESMs’ scenario experiments from CMIP6/ScenarioMIP to construct gridded, multivariate realizations of new scenarios provided by reduced complexity climate models (Hartin et al., 2015; Meinshausen et al., 2011; Smith et al., 2018), or to enrich existing initial condition ensembles. Its output provides the same characteristics as the emulated ESM output: multivariate (spanning potentially all variables that the ESM has saved), spatially resolved (down to the native grid of the ESM), and preserving the same high frequency as the original data. A new realization of multiple variables can be generated on the order of minutes with STITCHES, rather than the hours or sometimes days that ESMs require.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Same-sided successive-shock HED instability experiments

Inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and high-energy density (HED) physics experiments experience complicated forcing for instability growth and mix due to the ubiquitous presence of multiple shocks interacting with perturbations on multiple material interfaces. One common driver of instability growth is successive shocks from the same direction. However, there is a severe lack of analytic work and modeling validation for same-sided successive shocks since they are extremely difficult to achieve with conventional (non-HED) drivers. Successive shocks access a large instability parameter space; idealized fluid theory [K. O. Mikaelian, Phys. Rev. A 31, 410 (1985)] predicts 15 different interface evolution scenarios for a sinusoidal perturbation. Growth becomes more complex for multi-mode, compressible HED systems. The Mshock campaign is the first experiment in any fluid regime to probe a wide portion of successive shock parameter space. This is enabled by our development of a hybrid direct/indirect drive platform capable of creating independently controllable successive shocks on the National Ignition Facility. These experiments have delivered the first data capable of rigorously challenging our models and their ability to accurately capture Richtmyer–Meshkov growth under successive shocks. Single-mode and two-mode experiments have successfully demonstrated the ability to access and control the various growth scenarios of the shocked interface, including re-inversion, freeze out, and continued growth. Simulations and theoretical modeling are shown to accurately capture the experimental observations in the linear growth phase, giving us confidence in our ICF/HED design codes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding drivers of oil and gas well integrity issues in the greater wattenberg area of Colorado

Well integrity is critically important to maintain to minimize the environmental impacts of oil and gas development and other subsurface energy operations. The Wattenberg Field of Colorado—a top producing field with >40,000 wells—has one of the most robust publicly reported well integrity programs in the country. Here, in this study, we analyzed annular pressure and annular-fluid geochemical test results collected from Wattenberg wells through the end of 2019 to characterize the frequency and spatial variability of integrity issues in the field and understand their drivers. Estimated frequencies of integrity issues among tested wells were 8.2-17.1% between 1955 and 2019 and 6.1-11.4% in 2019 alone. The frequency of integrity issues was nearly four times greater in wells located above the Longmont Wrench Fault Zone. Potential drivers of integrity issues were identified using ensemble decision tree models trained with a broad set of relevant information. Models show that well integrity issues are spatially clustered on regional and sub-regional scales and suggest the relatively high frequency of integrity issues observed is likely attributed to geologic factors. These findings are valuable for regulatory agencies and operators seeking to inform well integrity monitoring, plugging, and emissions reduction efforts and design future subsurface energy projects.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Endothermic physiology of extinct megatooth sharks

The evolution of the extinct megatooth shark, Otodus megalodon , and its close phylogenetic relatives remains enigmatic. A central question persists regarding the thermophysiological origins of these large predatory sharks through geologic time, including whether O. megalodon was ectothermic or endothermic (including regional endothermy), and whether its thermophysiology could help to explain the iconic shark’s gigantism and eventual demise during the Pliocene. To address these uncertainties, we present unique geochemical evidence for thermoregulation in O. megalodon from both clumped isotope paleothermometry and phosphate oxygen isotopes. Our results show that O. megalodon had an overall warmer body temperature compared with its ambient environment and other coexisting shark species, providing quantitative and experimental support for recent biophysical modeling studies that suggest endothermy was one of the key drivers for gigantism in O. megalodon and other lamniform sharks. The gigantic body size with high metabolic costs of having high body temperatures may have contributed to the vulnerability of Otodus species to extinction when compared to other sympatric sharks that survived the Pliocene epoch.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Single-Shot Reconstruction of Electron Beam Longitudinal Phase Space in a Laser Wakefield Accelerator

We report on a single-shot longitudinal phase-space reconstruction diagnostic for electron beams in a laser wakefield accelerator via the experimental observation of distinct periodic modulations in the angularly resolved spectra. Such modulated angular spectra arise as a result of the direct interaction between the ultrarelativistic electron beam and the laser driver in the presence of the wakefield. A constrained theoretical model for the coupled oscillator, assisted by a genetic algorithm, can recreate the experimental electron spectra and, thus, fully reconstructs the longitudinal phase-space distribution of the electron beam with a temporal resolution of approximately 1.3 fs. In particular, it reveals the slice energy spread of the electron beam, which is important to measure for applications such as x-ray free electron lasers. In our experiment, the root-mean-square energy spread retrieved is bounded at 9.9 MeV, corresponding to a 0.9%–3.0% relative spread, despite the overall GeV energy beam having approximately 100% relative energy spread.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rising Water Levels and Vegetation Shifts Drive Substantial Reductions in Methane Emissions and Carbon Dioxide Uptake in a Great Lakes Coastal Freshwater Wetland

ABSTRACT Coastal freshwater wetlands are critical ecosystems for both local and global carbon cycles, sequestering substantial carbon while also emitting methane (CH 4 ) due to anoxic conditions. Estuarine freshwater wetlands face unique challenges from fluctuating water levels, which influence water quality, vegetation, and carbon cycling. However, the response of CH 4 fluxes and their drivers to altered hydrology and vegetation remains unclear, hindering mechanistic modeling. To address these knowledge gaps, we studied an estuarine freshwater wetland in the Great Lakes region, where rising water levels led to a vegetation shift from emergent Typha dominance in 2015–2016 to floating‐leaved species in 2020–2022. Using eddy covariance flux measurements during the peak growing season (June–September) of both periods, we observed a 60% decrease in CH 4 emissions, from 81 ± 4 g C m −2 in 2015–2016 to 31 ± 3 g C m −2 in 2020–2022. This decline was driven by two main factors: (1) higher water levels, which suppressed ebullitive fluxes via increased hydrostatic pressure and extended CH 4 residence time, enhancing oxidation potential in the water column; and (2) reduced CH 4 conductance through plants. Net carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) uptake decreased by 90%, from −267 ± 26 g C m −2 in 2015–2016 to −27 ± 49 g C m −2 in 2020–2022. Additionally, diel CH 4 flux patterns shifted, with a distinct morning peak observed in 2015–2016 but absent in 2020–2022, suggesting changes in plant‐mediated transport and a potential decoupling from photosynthesis. The dominant factors influencing CH 4 fluxes shifted from water temperature and gross primary productivity in 2015–2016 to atmospheric pressure in 2020–2022, suggesting an increased role of ebullition as a primary transport pathway. Our results demonstrate that changes in water levels and vegetation can substantially alter CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes in coastal freshwater wetlands, underscoring the critical role of hydrological shifts in driving carbon dynamics in these ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient First-Order Algorithms for Large-Scale, Non-Smooth Maximum Entropy Models with Application to Wildfire Science

Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models are a class of statistical models that use the maximum entropy principle to estimate probability distributions from data. Due to the size of modern data sets, MaxEnt models need efficient optimization algorithms to scale well for big data applications. State-of-the-art algorithms for MaxEnt models, however, were not originally designed to handle big data sets; these algorithms either rely on technical devices that may yield unreliable numerical results, scale poorly, or require smoothness assumptions that many practical MaxEnt models lack. In this paper, we present novel optimization algorithms that overcome the shortcomings of state-of-the-art algorithms for training large-scale, non-smooth MaxEnt models. Our proposed first-order algorithms leverage the Kullback–Leibler divergence to train large-scale and non-smooth MaxEnt models efficiently. For MaxEnt models with discrete probability distribution of n elements built from samples, each containing m features, the stepsize parameter estimation and iterations in our algorithms scale on the order of O(mn) operations and can be trivially parallelized. Moreover, the strong ℓ1 convexity of the Kullback–Leibler divergence allows for larger stepsize parameters, thereby speeding up the convergence rate of our algorithms. To illustrate the efficiency of our novel algorithms, we consider the problem of estimating probabilities of fire occurrences as a function of ecological features in the Western US MTBS-Interagency wildfire data set. Our numerical results show that our algorithms outperform the state of the art by one order of magnitude and yield results that agree with physical models of wildfire occurrence and previous statistical analyses of wildfire drivers.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning-assisted elucidation of CD81–CD44 interactions in promoting cancer stemness and extracellular vesicle integrity

Tumor-initiating cells with reprogramming plasticity or stem-progenitor cell properties (stemness) are thought to be essential for cancer development and metastatic regeneration in many cancers; however, elucidation of the underlying molecular network and pathways remains demanding. Combining machine learning and experimental investigation, here we report CD81, a tetraspanin transmembrane protein known to be enriched in extracellular vesicles (EVs), as a newly identified driver of breast cancer stemness and metastasis. Using protein structure modeling and interface prediction-guided mutagenesis, we demonstrate that membrane CD81 interacts with CD44 through their extracellular regions in promoting tumor cell cluster formation and lung metastasis of triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) in human and mouse models. In-depth global and phosphoproteomic analyses of tumor cells deficient with CD81 or CD44 unveils endocytosis-related pathway alterations, leading to further identification of a quality-keeping role of CD44 and CD81 in EV secretion as well as in EV-associated stemness-promoting function. CD81 is coexpressed along with CD44 in human circulating tumor cells (CTCs) and enriched in clustered CTCs that promote cancer stemness and metastasis, supporting the clinical significance of CD81 in association with patient outcomes. Our study highlights machine learning as a powerful tool in facilitating the molecular understanding of new molecular targets in regulating stemness and metastasis of TNBC.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Influence of Environmental State on Lightning and Convective Parameter Distributions

A merged and highly reduced database of TRMM level 1 (precipitation radar, microwave imager, lightning) and NCEP reanalysis (basic state, radiative and surface flux) data has been assembled for three years of the TRMM mission. This allows direct examination of the dependence of convective spectra (as observed through radar reflectivity, microwave brightness temperature and lightning flash rate) on environmental basic states and anomalies. Such analysis may be more physically justified and instructive than traditional geographic and/or seasonal binning. The dependence of convective spectra on several environmental forcing parameters is presented, including surface Bowen ratio (sensible heat to total turbulent flux), net atmospheric radiative flux convergence and net atmospheric enthalpy flux convergence. The latter are basic drivers of net moisture convergence in simple quasi-equilibrium models of tropical atmospheric convection.

Boccippio, D.↗