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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Internal gravity waves in massive stars: II. Frequency analysis across stellar mass

Stars that are over 1.6 solar masses are generally known to possess convective cores and radiative envelopes, which allows for the propagation of outwardly travelling internal gravity waves (IGWs). Here, we study the generation and propagation of IGWs in such stars using two-dimensional, fully non-linear hydrodynamical simulations with realistic stellar reference states from the one-dimensional stellar evolution code, Modules for Stellar Astrophysics. Compared to previous similar works, this study utilises radius-dependent thermal diffusivity profiles for five different stellar masses at the middle of the main sequence: 3 M ⊙ , 5 M ⊙ , 7 M ⊙ , 10 M ⊙ , and 13 M ⊙ . From the simulations, we find that the surface perturbations are larger for higher masses, but no noticeable trends are observed for the frequency slopes with different stellar masses. The slopes are also similar to the results from previous works. We compared our simulation results with stellar photometric data from a recent survey and we found that for frequency intervals above 8 μHz, there is a good agreement between the temperature frequency slopes from the simulations and the surface brightness variations of these observed stars. This indicates that the brightness variations are caused by core-generated IGWs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Measurement of the Anomalous Muon Spin Precession Frequency in the Muon $g-2$ Experiment at Fermilab

The Muon $g-2$ Experiment operated at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL, or Fermilab) between 2018 and 2023 to produce the world's most precise measurement of the muon's \textit{anomalous magnetic moment}, $a_\mu = \frac{g_\mu - 2}{2}$, which expresses the relative deviation in the muon's $g$-factor from a baseline theoretical expectation that $g_\mu = 2$. In the Standard Model of particle physics, $g_\mu > 2$ and hence $a_\mu > 0$ by a calculable amount that depends on all possible interactions between the muon and all other fundamental particles, including any potentially undiscovered interactions beyond the Standard Model. For this reason, measurements of the electron anomaly $a_e$ and later the muon anomaly $a_\mu$ have helped guide the development of the Standard Model since the inception of quantum field theory, and the measured value of $a_\mu$ provides a valuable constraint for new hypotheses that extend the Standard Model. As of 2006, the leading measurement and Standard Model prediction for $a_\mu$ exhibited tension at the level of about three standard deviations, motivating an improved measurement at Fermilab that could test the tension more precisely. The experiment functions by storing a polarized beam of $\mu^+$ in a uniform magnetic field, which simultaneously induces circular motion and spin precession. As the stored muons undergo the Michel decay $\mu^+ \to e^+ + \nu_e + \bar{\nu}_\mu$, mediated by the parity-violating weak interaction, the rest-frame $e^+$ emission direction is correlated with the parent $\mu^+$ spin orientation. Boosting into the laboratory frame encodes this correlation in the decay $e^+$ energy, which is higher when the emission (i.e. $\mu^+$ spin direction) is aligned with the $\mu^+$ momentum, and lower when opposite. Detectors then count the rate of high-energy decay $e^+$, which modulates at the difference between the $\mu^+$ revolution and spin precession frequencies. This observed frequency, called the \textit{anomalous spin precession frequency} $\omega_a$, is directly proportional to $a_\mu$. The extraction of $\omega_a$ proceeds by fitting the time spectrum of detected $e^+$, which requires precise modeling of the $\omega_a$ oscillation as well as any perturbations from beam dynamics and detector acceptance. Using the $\omega_a$ analysis presented in this work, based on Runs 4 -- 6 of the Muon $g-2$ Experiment at Fermilab, we find that $a_\mu = 0.001\,165\,920\,738(162)$ with a relative uncertainty of 139 parts per billion.

Barrett, Tyler [Cornell U.]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Catalytic resonance of ammonia synthesis by simulated dynamic ruthenium crystal strain

Ammonia affords dense storage for renewable energy as a fungible liquid fuel, provided it can be efficiently synthesized from hydrogen and nitrogen. In this work, the catalysis of ammonia synthesis was computationally explored beyond the Sabatier limit by dynamically straining a ruthenium crystal (±4%) at the resonant frequencies (10 2 to 10 5+ Hz) of N 2 surface dissociation and hydrogenation. Density functional theory calculations at different strain conditions indicated that the energies of NH x surface intermediates and transition states scale linearly, allowing the description of ammonia synthesis at a continuum of strain conditions. A microkinetic model including multiple sites and surface diffusion between step and Ru(0001) terrace sites of varying ratios for nanoparticles of differing size revealed that dynamic strain yields catalytic ammonia synthesis conversion and turnover frequency comparable to industrial reactors (400°C, 200 atm) but at lower temperature (320°C) and an order of magnitude lower pressure (20 atm).

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Km‐Scale Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems Over South America—A Feature Tracker Intercomparison

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are clusters of thunderstorms that are important in Earth's water and energy cycle. Additionally, they are responsible for extreme events such as large hail, strong winds, and extreme precipitation. Automated object-based analyses that track MCSs have become popular since they allow us to identify and follow MCSs over their entire life cycle in a Lagrangian framework. This rise in popularity was accompanied by an increasing number of MCS tracking algorithms, however, little is known about how sensitive analyses are concerning the MCS tracker formulation. Here, we assess differences between six MCS tracking algorithms on South American MCS characteristics and evaluate MCSs in kilometer-scale simulations with observational-based MCSs over 3 years. All trackers are run with a common set of MCS classification criteria to isolate tracker formulation differences. The tracker formulation substantially impacts MCS characteristics such as frequency, size, duration, and contribution to total precipitation. The evaluation of simulated MCS characteristics is less sensitive to the tracker formulation and all trackers agree that the model can capture MCS characteristics well across different South American climate zones. Dominant sources of uncertainty are the segmentation of cloud systems in space and time and the treatment of how MCSs are linked in time. Our results highlight that comparing MCS analyses that use different tracking algorithms is challenging. We provide general guidelines on how MCS characteristics compare between trackers to facilitate a more robust assessment of MCS statistics in future studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Perspective: Magnon-magnon coupling in hybrid magnonics

The internal coupling of magnetic excitations (magnons) with themselves has created a new research sub-field in hybrid magnonics, i.e., magnon-magnon coupling, which focuses on materials discovery and engineering for probing and controlling magnons in a coherent manner. This is enabled by, one, the abundant mechanisms of introducing magnetic interactions, with examples of exchange coupling, dipolar coupling, Ruderman–Kittel–Kasuya–Yosida (RKKY) coupling, and Dzyaloshinskii–Moriya interaction (DMI) coupling, and two, the vast knowledge of how to control magnon band structure, including field and wavelength dependences of frequencies, for determining the degeneracy of magnon modes with different symmetries. In particular, we discuss how magnon-magnon coupling is implemented in various materials systems, with examples of magnetic bilayers, synthetic antiferromagnets, nanomagnetic arrays, layered van der Waals magnets, and (DMI spin-orbit torque materials) in magnetic multilayers. Here, we then introduce new concept of applications for these hybrid magnonic materials systems, with examples of frequency up/down conversion and magnon-exciton coupling, and discuss what properties are desired for achieving those applications.

Materials science↗
DOE OSTI2022

Different Electrochemical Behavior of Cationic Dopamine from Anionic Ascorbic Acid and DOPAC at CNT Yarn Microelectrodes

Carbon nanotube yarn microelectrodes (CNTYMEs) have micron-scale surface crevices that momentarily trap molecules. CNTYMEs improve selectivity among cationic catecholamines because secondary reactions are enhanced, but no anions have been studied. Here, we compared fast-scan cyclic voltammetry (FSCV) of dopamine and anionic interferents 3,4 dihydroxyphenylacetic acid (DOPAC) and L-ascorbic acid (AA) at CNTYMEs and carbon fiber microelectrodes (CFMEs). At CFMEs, dopamine current decreases with increasing FSCV repetition frequency at pH 7.4, whereas DOPAC and AA have increasing currents with increasing frequency, because of less repulsion at the negative holding potential. Both DOPAC and AA have side reactions after being oxidized, which are enhanced by trapping. At pH 4, the current increases for DOPAC and AA because they are not repelled. In addition, AA has a different oxidation pathway at pH 4, and an extra peak in the CV is enhanced by trapping effects at CNTYMEs. At pH 8.5, co-detection of dopamine in the presence of DOPAC and AA is enhanced at 100 Hz frequency because of differences in secondary peaks. Thus, the trapping effects at CNTYMEs affects anions differently than cations and secondary peaks can be used to identify dopamine in mixture of AA and DOPAC with FSCV.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Delineating the Effects of Counterions on the Structural and Vibrational Properties of U(IV) Lindqvist Polyoxometalate Complexes

Herein we conducted a full investigation into the fundamental structural and vibrational properties of uranium(IV) Peacock−Weakley-type lacunary Lindqvist (W 10 ) polyoxometalate (POM) complexes. We recently demonstrated the importance of the secondary lattice elements in tuning the distortion of the D 4d symmetry in W 10 POM complexes, and here, we synthesized eight UW 10 complexes with different alkali metal counterions and evaluated how the composition and packing of counterion species affected complex structural and vibrational properties. Single-crystal X-ray diffraction analysis on complexes 1−8 revealed changes in structural distortion parameters as a function of differences in counterion configurations, while far-infrared and Raman spectra for 1−8 also demonstrated that vibrational mode frequencies were sensitive to changes in counterion composition and packing. To more effectively compare different counterion configurations, we developed counterion effective ionic radius (eIR) as a new structural parameter, and comparisons between structural distortion parameters and eIR values strongly suggested that modulation by the secondary lattice elements can affect structural and vibrational manifolds within POM complexes. Partial least squares (PLS) analysis was used to quantitatively evaluate correlations observed within this investigation, and PLS statistical models showed a strong correlation between counterion eIR and both structural distortion parameters and vibrational mode frequencies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Urban morphology from a landscape perspective: How building morphology distribution land models (BMDLM) emulate pattern and process

Urban form (e.g., building morphology such as height or footprint) can be used to predict environmental footprints, such as energy/water consumption and carbon emissions. Although progress has been made in predicting building characteristics to fill gaps in observation or derive 3-D representations, the relationships between morphology and other variables such as land use and population are poorly understood. Understanding these relationships may enable projections for how cities will evolve with landscapes in the future. A suite of random forest models, the Building Morphology Distribution Land Models (BMDLM), was developed to determine how well building morphology for two distinct statistical measures (central tendency and frequency) can be predicted using land use (e.g., zoning) and population at different resolutions. Clark County, Nevada and Los Angeles County, California are explored as case studies. Generally, 1-km models outperformed 30-m models. Frequency distribution models had the best performance, especially in LA County. Frequency models significantly outperformed spatial autocorrelative models using inverse distance weighting (IDW). BMDLM offers a new take on modeling urban form in which generalized landscape patterns are characterized to understand the influence of population and zoning on urban development, as described by urban scaling theory.

Sturtevant, Jillian [Baylor Univ., Waco, TX (Unite↗
DOE OSTI2023

Anomalous cross-field transport in a Hall thruster inferred from direct measurement of instability growth rates

The contribution of the electron drift instability to anomalous electron transport is experimentally assessed in a Hall effect discharge. The transport is represented by an anomalous collision frequency, which is related through quasilinear theory to the energy and growth rate of the instability. The wave energy is measured directly with ion saturation probes, while estimates of the growth rate are employed based on both linearized theory and direct measurement. The latter measurement is performed with a bispectral analysis method. The wave-driven collision frequency is compared to measurements of the actual collision frequency inferred from a method based on laser- induced fluorescence. It is found that estimates for transport using linearized theory for the growth differ by over an order of magnitude from the actual anomalous collision frequency in the plasma. The wave-driven anomalous collision frequency with measured growth, however, is shown to agree with the electron collision frequency in magnitude and capture aspects of the trends in spatial variation. This result demonstrates experimentally that wave-driven effects ultimately can explain the observed cross-field transport in these devices. As a result, the implications of this finding are discussed in the context of the key lengthscales that drive the transport as well as the implications identifying reduced fidelity models that could be used to predict anomalous collision frequency.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reactive Modified Epoxy Resin and Its Miscible Blends Based on Recycled Oligomers from Solvolysis

Chemical depolymerization of fully cured epoxy resin with 20% reactive modifier was successfully performed via a solvent-assisted solvolysis process into low molecular weight recyclable oligomers (RO) at 240 °C in a pressure vessel at 650 psi for 4 h. The thermoset epoxy resin was depolymerized into transparent brown viscous fluid with a higher viscosity than the uncured epoxy resin with approximately 93% yield. Different concentrations of the RO were homogeneously mixed with the pure epoxy resin, and their curing kinetics, viscosity, FTIR, mechanical properties, DMA, and cross-link density were investigated. The curing kinetics of the pure reactive modified epoxy resin (baseline) and its mixtures with RO of different concentrations were investigated under both isothermal and nonisothermal conditions using small amplitude oscillatory shear flow. The elastic and viscous moduli (G′ and G″), complex viscosity (η*), and tan δ values were evaluated at different curing times and temperatures. The G′, G″, and η* increased dramatically, while tan δ decreased strongly by several orders of magnitude at the gel point. The zero-shear viscosity (η 0 ) was determined from the angular frequency dependent on η* based on the Cross model for different blend compositions in the liquid state before curing. The composition dependence of η 0 showed a positive deviation from the linear mixing rule and was well described by the Lecyar model. Here, the apparent activation energy of curing (E a ) was also evaluated according to the Arrhenius equation and was found to be 46 ± 2 kJ/mol regardless of the different contents of RO. For all blends up to 40 wt % RO, only one tan δ peak systematically shifting to lower temperatures with increasing content of RO was observed in the DMA measurements, indicating that the epoxy resin and the RO are miscible with up to 40 wt % RO.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Technical Report on Waveform Fit Metrics for Global Models

The new WAVEFORMS Initiative in the Ground-based Nuclear Detonation Detection (GNDD) program includes an increased emphasis on the development of Earth models and methods to predict entire seismic and acoustic waveforms more accurately. In general, this increased emphasis is predicated on the need to better characterize seismic events and provide improved model-based discrimination between event types including earthquakes and explosions. More specifically, while current moment tensor inversion methods tend to work well for larger events (M>~4) using tuned 1-D Earth models, the development of state-of-the-art 3-D models and methods is required for the prediction of shorter period waves over large areas for discrimination of smaller events. There is no standard metric for model-based waveform prediction accuracy used in the waveform modeling/inversion community. However, there are several popular waveform misfit definitions; and minimizing the corresponding objective functions is the goal of waveform inversion. Some example misfit definitions employed for adjoint waveform tomography include measures of simple travel time differences (e.g. Tape et al., 2010), cross-correlation travel time differences (e.g. Luo and Schuster, 1991), multi-taper frequency dependent methods (e.g. Lei et al., 2020), time-frequency phase misfit functions (e.g. Fichtner 2010; Rodgers et al., 2022), normalized cross-correlation methods (e.g. Tao et al., 2018), and others. In some cases, these misfit definitions also involve complicated weighting schemes and summations over multiple frequency bands making it difficult to duplicate the misfit measurement with alternative models and datasets. Although each of the misfit definitions mentioned above are useful for developing waveform models, the actual misfit values are not usually meaningful outside of a given project, model, and/or dataset. Therefore, it is difficult to understand and communicate model performance for predicting waveforms and comparing to other models and/or new model iterations with a different dataset. Therefore, there is a need for a generalized method for evaluating overall model performance that is independent from the specific misfit chosen to develop the waveform models that is also intuitive and meaningful. In this report, we describe a new metric we refer to as ‘Percent of Correlated Signal’. The following sections describe and demonstrate the metric with a case study event and a more rigorous test using a random selection of globally distributed events. While the focus here is on global tomography models, the metric is meant to applicable to regional ‘wiggle-for-wiggle’ waveform models/studies as well.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generalization of Deep-Learning Models for Classification of Local Distance Earthquakes and Explosions across Various Geologic Settings

Although accurately classifying signals from earthquakes and explosions at local distance (<250 km) remains an important task for seismic network operations, the growing volume of available seismic data presents a challenge for analysts using traditional source discrimination techniques. In recent years, deep-learning models have proven effective at discriminating between low-magnitude earthquakes and explosions measured at local distances, but it is not clear how well these models are capable of generalizing across different geological settings. To address the issue of generalization between regions, we train deep-learning models (convolutional neural networks [CNNs]) on time–frequency representations (scalograms) of three-component earthquake and explosion signals from eight different regions in the continental United States. We explore scenarios where models are trained on data from all regions, individual regions, or all but one region. We find that although CNN models trained on individual regions do not necessarily generalize well across different settings, models trained on multiple regions that include diverse path coverage generalize to new regions, with station-level accuracy of up to 90% or more for data sets from unseen regions. In general, CNN-based discrimination models significantly outperform models based on uncorrected P/S ratio (measured in the 10–18 Hz frequency band), even when CNN models are tested on data from entirely unseen regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Defect‐Free Sound Insulator Using Single Metal‐Based Friction Stir Process Array

Metals are excellent conductors for phonon transportation such as vibration, sound, and heat. Generally, metal sound insulators require multimaterial structure or defects and unimetal sound insulators are challenging. Therefore, a design of a defect-free sound insulator made by single alloys with multiple friction stir processes (FSPs) is proposed. Periodic friction stir processing can induce superlattice-like local mechanical properties’ modifications. By experimental acoustic characterization, it is observed that FSP can introduce clear acoustic–elastic property contrast on an aluminum plate by the presence of stir zone and heat-affected zones. In numerical simulations, the signature FSP-induced property profile is periodically and parallelly arranged on a long aluminum plate. The transmission gap frequencies are present on the frequency spectrum with the sound propagation direction perpendicular to the FSP paths. Disorder offsets on FSP periodicity are further introduced. Anderson localization is found on a resonance frequency, which provides −11 dB sound reduction by an exponential decay. Due to the finite design length, the slight disorder can also enhance sound insulation in the periodic transmission gap frequency. In conclusion, with analysis and comparison with different configurations, the best performance in the models can achieve −30 dB sound insulation in the 350 mm-long aluminum alloy plate with 14 parallel FSPs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reliability metrics and their management implications for open pond algae cultivation

The prevalence of contaminating organisms in outdoor algae cultivation, with the often-associated dramatic crop failures, necessitates the need for metrics describing production system reliability. Standard metrics for algae cultivation reliability are critically needed to be able to map improvements in operational parameters, but do not currently exist. In this work, we present a set of standard metrics including mean time to failure (MTTF) and mean time between failures (MTBF) as the basis for the calculation of pond failure rate (FR) and reliability coefficient (RC). Metrics associated with the numbers of contaminating organisms such as abundance ratio (AR), prevalence of infection (PI), and mean intensity of infection (MII) are also relevant. These metrics, based on measured experimental values of outdoor pond performance during the Algae Testbed Public-Private Partnership (ATP3) Unified Field Studies (UFS), provide a basis for quantifying pond failure and provide insight into potential pond management and contaminant mitigation strategies. From these reliability metrics applied to this dataset, we are able to link operational parameters, such as harvest frequency and inoculum source, to pond reliability for different algae strains and seasons, and from an assessment of AR, provide contamination thresholds beyond which a culture may be unrecoverable. Ultimately, the implementation of widely-practiced and simple-to-calculate algae pond reliability metrics calculated from rapid and easy to collect data or observations will reduce risk and uncertainty in large-scale algae deployment and aid in the development of integrated pest management (IPM) strategies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge: Confronting blind predictions for the linear and nonlinear dynamics of a thin-walled jointed structure with measurement results

The present article summarizes the submissions to the Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge announced in 2021. The task was a blind prediction of the vibration behavior of a system comprising a thin plate clamped on two sides via bolted joints. Both geometric and frictional contact nonlinearities are expected to be relevant. Provided were the CAD models and technical drawings of all parts as well as assembly instructions. The main objective was to predict the frequency and damping ratio of the lowest-frequency mode as function of the amplitude. Many different prediction approaches were pursued, ranging from well-known methods to very recently developed ones. After the submission deadline, the system has been fabricated and tested. The aim of this article is to evaluate the current state of the art in modeling and vibration prediction, and to provide directions for future methodological advancements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainties in Atmospheric River Lifecycles by Detection Algorithms: Climatology and Variability

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow filaments of vapor transport that are responsible for most poleward moisture transport outside of the tropics. Many AR detection algorithms have been developed to automatically identify ARs in climate data. The diversity of these algorithms has introduced appreciable uncertainties in quantitative measures of AR properties and thereby impedes the construction of a unified and internally consistent climatology of ARs. This paper compares nine global AR detection algorithms from the perspective of AR lifecycles following the propagation of ARs from origin to termination in the MERRA2 reanalysis over the period 1980–2017. Uncertainties in AR lifecycle characteristics, including event number, lifetime, intensity, and frequency distribution are discussed. Notably, the number of AR events per year in the Northern Hemisphere can vary by a factor of 5 with different algorithms. Although all algorithms show that the maximum AR origin (termination) frequency is located over the western (eastern) portion of ocean basins, significant disagreements appear in regional distribution. Spreads are large in AR lifetime and intensity. Here, the number of landfalling AR events produced by the algorithms can vary from 16 to 80 events per year, although the agreement improves for stronger ARs. By examining the ARs' connections with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation, we find that the overall responses of ARs (such as changes in AR frequency, origin, and landfall activity) to climate variability are consistent among algorithms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparisons Between Array Derived Dynamic Strain Rate (ADDS) and Fiber‐Optic Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) Strain Rate

Abstract Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) strain rate and particle velocity can be compared through approximate scaling with medium velocity. We instead performed a direct comparison between array derived dynamic strain (ADDS) rate and DAS strain rate for six frequency bands. The PoroTomo project at Brady's Hot Springs, Nevada, deployed a 240‐geophone 3C array co‐located with fiber‐optic DAS system and 8.7 km of buried cable. We selected subsets of the geophone array to create four smaller arrays and computed ADDS. The horizontal components of the ADDS were rotated into the direction of the fiber‐optic cable and then compared with the observed DAS strain rates. From three example regional earthquakes of local magnitudes 2.9, 4.1, and 4.3, the ADDS are found to be coherent with DAS for frequencies ≤1 Hz. For frequencies >1‐Hz, this correlation decays quickly. Small differences between linear and areal dynamic strains at 1‐Hz suggest poor signal‐to‐noise or localized strain that is perturbed by shallow heterogeneities compare to the average strain propagating across the geophone array. The implication is that around 1‐Hz, straight fiber DAS is measuring axial strain along the fiber and can provide good approximations to translational particle motions. However, above 1‐Hz, DAS becomes more sensitive to shallow velocity gradients that can be beneficial for geophysical imaging yet becomes a limitation for traditional seismic analysis methods depending on absolute amplitude and phase from translational particle motions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events

Compound hot–dry events—co-occurring hot and dry extremes—frequently cause damages to human and natural systems, often exceeding separate impacts from heatwaves and droughts. Strong increases in the occurrence of these events are projected with warming, but associated uncertainties remain large and poorly understood. Here, using climate model large ensembles, we show that mean precipitation trends exclusively modulate the future occurrence of compound hot–dry events over land. This occurs because local warming will be large enough that future droughts will always coincide with at least moderately hot extremes, even in a 2°C warmer world. By contrast, precipitation trends are often weak and equivocal in sign, depending on the model, region and internal climate variability. Therefore, constraining regional precipitation trends will also constrain future compound hot–dry events. These results help to assess future frequencies of other compound extremes characterized by strongly different trends in the drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗