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At least 487 records · Page 27

Changes in the Regional Water Cycle and Their Impact on Societies

ABSTRACT Changes in “blue water”, which is the total supply of fresh water available for human extraction over land, are quite closely related to changes in runoff or equivalently precipitation minus evaporation, . This article examines how climate change‐driven recent past and future changes in the regional water cycle relate to blue water availability and changes in human blue water demand. Although at the largest scales theoretical and numerical model predictions are in broad agreement with observations, at continental scales and below models predict large ranges of possible future and runoff especially at the scale of individual river catchments and for shorter timescale subseasonal floods and droughts. Nevertheless, it is expected that the occurrence and severity of floods will increase and that of droughts may increase, possibly compounded by human‐driven non‐climatic changes such as changes in land use, dam water impoundment, irrigation and extraction of groundwater. Contemporary assessments predict that increases in 21st century human water extraction in many highly‐populated regions are unlikely to be sustainable given projections of future . To reduce uncertainty in future predictions, there is an urgent need to improve modeling of atmospheric, land surface and human processes and how these components are coupled. This should be supported by maintaining the observing network and expanding it to improve measurements of land surface, oceanic and atmospheric variables. This includes the development of satellite observations stable over multiple decades and suitable for building reanalysis datasets appropriate for model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spectral line identification from a photoionised silicon plasma in emission

Next-generation X-ray satellite telescopes such as XRISM, NewAthena and Lynx will enable observations of exotic astrophysical sources at unprecedented spectral and spatial resolution. Proper interpretation of these data demands that the accuracy of the models is at least within the uncertainty of the observations. One set of quantities that might not currently meet this requirement is transition energies of various astrophysically relevant ions. Current databases are populated with many untested theoretical calculations. Accurate laboratory benchmarks are required to better understand the coming data. We obtained laboratory spectra of X-ray lines from a silicon plasma at an average spectral resolving power of ∼7500 with a spherically bent crystal spectrometer on the Z facility at Sandia National Laboratories. Many of the lines in the data are measured here for the first time. We report measurements of 53 transitions originating from the K-shells of He-like to B-like silicon in the energy range between ∼1795 and 1880 eV (6.6–6.9 Å). The lines were identified by qualitative comparison against a full synthetic spectrum calculated with ATOMIC. The average fractional uncertainty (uncertainty/energy) for all reported lines is ∼5.4 × 10 −5 . We compare the measured quantities against transition energies calculated with RATS and FAC as well as those reported in the NIST ASD and XSTAR’s uaDB. Average absolute differences relative to experimentally measured values are 0.20, 0.32, 0.17 and 0.38 eV, respectively. All calculations/databases show good agreement with the experimental values; NIST ASD shows the closest match overall.

astrophysical plasmas↗

Influence of Terminal Carboxyl Groups on the Structure and Reactivity of Functionalized m-Carboranethiolate Self-Assembled Monolayers

The structure and function of self-assembled monolayers (SAMs) at the nanoscale are determined by the steric and electronic effects of their building blocks. Carboranethiol molecules form pristine monolayers that provide tunable two-dimensional systems to probe lateral and interfacial interactions. Additional ω-functionality, such as carboxyl groups, can be introduced to change the properties of the exposed surfaces. Here, two geometrically similar isomeric m-carborane analogues of m-mercaptobenzoic acid, 1-COOH-7-SH-1,7-C 2 B 10 H 10 and racem-1-COOH-9-SH-1,7-C 2 B 10 H 10 , are characterized and their SAMs on Au{111} are examined. The latter isomer belongs to the rare group of chiral cage molecules and becomes, to our knowledge, the first example assembled on Au{111}. Although different in symmetry, molecules of both isomers assemble into similar hexagonal surface patterns. The nearest-neighbor spacing of 8.4 ± 0.4 Å is larger than that of non-carboxylated isomers, consistent with the increased steric demands of the carboxyl groups. Computational modeling reproduced this spacing and suggests a tilt relative to the surface normal. However, tilt domains are not observed experimentally, suggesting the presence of strong lateral interactions. Analyses of the influence of the functional groups through the pseudo-aromatic m-carborane skeleton showed that the thiol group attached to either carbon or boron atoms increases the carboxyl group acidity in solution. In contrast, the acidity of the exposed carboxyl group in the SAMs decreases upon surface attachment; computational analyses suggest that the driving force of this shift is the dielectric of the environment in the monolayer as a result of confined intermolecular interactions, proximity to the Au surface, and partial desolvation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Analytic model of electron transport through and over non-linear barriers

Tunneling barriers are an essential component of electron sources, sensors, detectors, and vacuum nanoelectronics, and a pivotal factor in their performance, but the barriers themselves routinely depart from the analytic models used to model their behavior. Here, a new formalism is developed to analytically and accurately model emission through and over barriers associated with depletion layers, nanotip barriers, and MIM structures. The transmission probability for depletion layer and metal-insulator-metal (MIM) and metaloxide-semiconductor (MOS) barriers is accurately modeled as the electron energy exceeds the barrier height using approaches designed for rapid implementation demanded by simulation codes, and extensible to general barriers. The models supersede conventional thermal and field models in depletion and MIM/MOS barrier studies. Thermal-field methods are used to treat the transmission probability, and shape factor methods to treat the tunneling factor. Analytic formulae for current density are obtained. The methods ease device simulation and characterization of current-voltage relations for emerging technologically interesting barriers with better accuracy.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Mitigating drought mortality by incorporating topography into variable forest thinning strategies

Abstract Drought-induced productivity reductions and tree mortality have been increasing in recent decades in forests around the globe. Developing adaptation strategies hinges on an adequate understanding of the mechanisms governing the drought vulnerability of forest stands. Prescribed reduction in stand density has been used as a management tool to reduce water stress and wildfire risk, but the processes that modulate fine-scale variations in plant water supply and water demand are largely missing in ecosystem models. We used an ecohydrological model that couples plant hydraulics with groundwater hydrology to examine how within-stand variations in tree spatial arrangements and topography might mitigate forest vulnerability to drought at individual-tree and stand scales. Our results demonstrated thinning generally ameliorated plant hydraulic stress and improved carbon and water fluxes of the remaining trees, although the effectiveness varied by climate and topography. Variable thinning that adjusted thinning intensity based on topography-mediated water availability achieved higher stand productivity and lower mortality risk, compared to evenly-spaced thinning at comparable intensities. The results from numerical experiments provided mechanistic evidence that topography mediates the effectiveness of thinning and highlighted the need for an explicit consideration of within-stand heterogeneity in trees and abiotic environments when designing forest thinning to mitigate drought impacts.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Capturing electronic decoherence in quantum-classical dynamics using the ring-polymer-surface-hopping–density-matrix approach

Simulations of coupled electronic and nuclear dynamics in molecules can be quite challenging due to the involved interplay of the many degrees of freedom. Because a full quantum treatment of both electrons and nuclei is computationally very demanding, it is generally restricted to model systems or rather small molecules and short timescales. Mixed quantum-classical dynamics methods such as Tully's fewest switches surface hopping (FSSH) can be used to overcome this limitation. However, FSSH is known to poorly describe electronic coherences and decoherence phenomena. Here, we present an approach that combines FSSH with ring-polymer molecular dynamics (RPMD) in a specific way that aims to alleviate the coherence problem. Termed the ring-polymer-surface-hopping–density-matrix approach, this method uses an electronic density-matrix formulation to calculate surface hopping rates. Additionally, this incorporates decoherence effects into FSSH in a natural way by taking into account the spatial spreading of the ring polymer that mimics the width of a nuclear wave packet in each RPMD trajectory. By applying our method to Tully's one-dimensional model system, we demonstrate that this method captures a crucial decoherence mechanism that is missing in FSSH. Furthermore, our method turns out to be superior at describing electronic coherences compared with earlier attempts at combining RPMD and FSSH.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Load Matching Potential of Urban Renewables during Extreme Heat in New York City

Integration of renewable resources to meet growing energy demand is becoming a global priority under decarbonization mandates. This study contributes to ongoing efforts on the matter by assessing the feasibility of using offshore wind and rooftop photovoltaic systems to meet electricity demand during a period of thermal stress in New York City—August 2019. A unified modelling framework, based on the Urbanized Weather Research and Forecasting model, is used to simulate climate, renewable resources and energy demand variables. Findings show significant energy load miss-match, ranging from 3 to 5 GW, between the demand and the composite renewable generation outcome. This study provides a transferable framework for evaluating renewable integration in dense urban regions and highlights the need for additional strategies to support grid resilience during extreme heat events, while clarifying the role of local resources in fully managing NYC’s load.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physiologically based modeling reveals different risk of respiratory depression after fentanyl overdose between adults and children

Despite a rapid increase in pediatric mortality rate from prescription and illicit opioids, there is limited research on the dose-dependent impact of opioids on respiratory depression in children, the leading cause of opioid-associated death. In this article, we extend a previously developed translational model to cover pediatric populations by incorporating age-dependent pharmacokinetic, pharmacodynamic, and physiological changes compared to adults. Our model reproduced previous perioperative clinical findings that adults and children have similar risk of respiratory depression at the same plasma fentanyl concentration when specific endpoints (minute ventilation, CO 2 tension in the blood) were used. However, our model points to a potential caveat that, in a perioperative setting, routine use of mechanical ventilation and supplemental oxygen maintained the blood and tissue oxygen partial pressures in patients and prevented the use of oxygen-related endpoints to evaluate the consequences of respiratory depression. In a community setting when such oxygenation procedures are not immediately available, our model suggests that the higher oxygen demand and reduced cerebrovascular reactivity could make children more susceptible to severe hypoxemia and brain hypoxia, even with the same plasma fentanyl concentration as adults. Our work indicates that when developing intervention strategies to protect children from opioid overdose in a community setting, these pediatric-specific factors may need to be considered.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Auto-BLAST (AutoBLAST) [SWR-20-93]

Battery life modeling often involves a lot of manual parameter fitting and is not easy for users to adopt the model and use it. To reduce the difficulties for users to adopt battery lifetime models, an automatic battery lifetime modeling analysis and simulation tool suite, Auto-BLAST, has been developed. Auto-BLAST includes a lithium-loss-base life model, a battery electric model, and an algorithm which automatically fits all key parameters in the electric and life models using user provided data. The models and algorithm are packaged into two user-friendly GUIs, Auto-LifeMod, for easy battery life prognostic model fitting and Auto-LifeSim, for easy battery lifetime simulation. The lithium-loss-based life model adopts a similar model framework that models degradations using aging rate models, using battery cycling data to predict battery degradation and expected lifetime. The electric model is an equivalent circuit model which simulates battery voltage responses based on current/power demand profiles. The auto-fitting algorithm uses the user-input data to generate custom battery life model(s). Two GUIs, wrapping around the life model and the auto-fitting algorithm, provide friendly interfaces for users to generate a life model and use it for case study. One GUI requires summary data from accelerated battery life degradation tests as an input and produces battery life models predicting (a) capacity degradation, and (b) resistance growth of the battery. The GUI displays the electrical model response and the input experimental data against the life model predictions with fitted model parameters and fitting error. The GUI also generates an output file to save the fitted model parameters. The second GUI uses the life model from the first GUI and a user-defined battery cycling profile to predict battery lifetime degradation and expected lifetime. Predicted capacity and resistance vs. time are plotted in the GUI and saved to output file. There is a user guide for both GUIs

Mishra, Partha↗

CPAP Ventilators Needed for Rapid Response to COVID-19 by Modification of CPAP Equipment

Early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, potential ventilator shortages were a critical issue identified by national health care providers. Capacity modeling at the time suggested patient demand may exceed ventilator supply. Thus, the challenge became finding an urgent interim solution to meet health care needs. Our initial hypothesis was that CPAP technology could be modified to provide similar functionality to a ventilator, relieving demand and allowing physicians to decide which patients need high end machines, ultimately saving lives. In conjunction with medical experts and pulmonologists, we were able to identify three key thrusts associated with this research problem: (1) modification of CPAP technology to allow for 02 input that would be capable of providing ventilation; (2) development of an alarming function that would provide real-time audible alarms to alert medical personnel to critical conditions, which would be used inline with CPAP technology; and (3) a method of sterilizing expiratory air from such a system in order to protect medical personnel from biohazard, since CPAPs vent to the atmosphere. We were unable to realize results for thrust 1 (CPAP modification for 02); we identified potential safety issues associated with utilizing medical grade oxygen with a common CPAP device. In order to characterize and mitigate these issues, we would need to partner closely with a device manufacturer; such a partnership could not be achieved in the timeframe needed for this rapid response work. However, we determined that some medical grade BiPAP devices do not need this modification and that the significant progress on thrusts 2 and 3 would be sufficient to buy down risk of a massive ventilator shortage. Our team built a prototype alarm system that can be utilized with any assistive respiratory device to alert on all key conditions identified by medical personnel (high pressure, low pressure, apnea, loss of power, low battery). Finally, our team made significant progress in the rapid prototyping and demonstration of an inline UV air purifier device. The device is cost efficient and can be manufactured at scale with both commercially available and additively manufactured parts. Initial tests with SARS-CoV-2 analog bacteriophage MS2 show 99% efficacy at reducing bioburden. Following a successful demonstration of the prototype device with medical personnel, we were able to obtain follow-on (non-LDRD) funding to provide additional device characterization, validation, and production in order to respond to an immediate regional need.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Chapter 17: Residential Behavior Evaluation Protocol. The Uniform Methods Project: Methods for Determining Energy Efficiency Savings for Specific Measures, September 2011 - August 2020

This document has been updated in August 2020. This document was developed for the U.S. Department of Energy Uniform Methods Project (UMP). The UMP provides model protocols for determining energy and demand savings that result from specific energy-efficiency measures implemented through state and utility programs. In most cases, the measure protocols are based on a particular option identified by the International Performance Verification and Measurement Protocol; however, this work provides a more detailed approach to implementing that option. Each chapter is written by technical experts in collaboration with their peers, reviewed by industry experts, and subject to public review and comment. The protocols are updated on an as-needed basis. The UMP protocols can be used by utilities, program administrators, public utility commissions,evaluators, and other stakeholders for both program planning and evaluation. To learn more about the UMP, visit the website, https://energy.gov/eere/about-us/ump-home, or download the UMP introduction document at http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68557.pdf.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Thermal Integration of Advanced Nuclear Reactors with a Reference Refinery, Methanol Synthesis, and a Wood Pulp Plant (Rev.1)

The present report is intended to provide process flow diagrams (PFDs) and energy and mass balance data sheets for a U.S. industrial sector subset with which nuclear heat and power could be integrated—a subset that includes the oil refining, methanol and pulp and paper industries. Coupling options for integrating nuclear energy into these industries are quantitatively outlined for reference systems, and future work will extend this analysis in greater detail. Opportunities for integrating small modular nuclear reactors (SMNRs) were investigated for each of the industrial process configurations. Aspen HYSYS and Cycle-Tempo models for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor were developed to evaluate the proposed integration. This introductory evaluation provides a general description and assessment of the operating principles, reactor coolant core outlet temperature, and reactor size to be integrated with industry. The industrial processes of oil refining and the production of methanol, pulp and paper were simulated by using Aspen HYSYS, Aspen Plus, and the PRELIM (Petroleum Refinery Life Cycle Inventory Model) tool to develop process details. Cycle-Tempo models then extend the process modeling results to obtain net energy demands (e.g., heat, steam, and electricity) when accounting for process steam and waste heat recovery. This information is intended to foster the analysis of integrating an SMNR to decarbonize industrial facilities. The SMNR would provide reliable, competitive, and sustainable clean energy while reducing carbon emissions and other environmental impacts, such as water withdrawals, consumption, and contamination. The refining industry, exhibited in Figure ES1, is a leading consumer of fossil -fuel-based heat, power, and hydrogen in the U.S. industrial sector, generating over 164 million metric tons (MMT) of CO 2 emissions in 2023. The overall mass and energy pertaining to a generalized complex refinery in the United States is reflected in Figure ES1, along with energy metrics regarding integration with a nuclear power plant (NPP). Data sheets were developed to indicate the energy requirements for the overall refinery and each refinery process. The data sheet for the overall refinery is shown in Table ES2.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Evaluation of the Energy, Hygrothermal, and Thermal Capacity Performance of Cross-Laminated Timber

Cross-laminated timber (CLT) construction is gaining momentum in the US because it offers multiple advantages over traditional construction methods. Benefits that have received the most attention focus on constructability, the environment, and protection (e.g., blast resistance), although CLT construction is likely to offer other benefits, as well. Still, these have not been studied at length because such evaluations are costly, requiring long-term assessments in an actual building and specialized technical knowledge. Among the possible benefits, CLT construction likely provides a higher-performing building envelope. Using CLT panels to enclose a building means fewer joints in the opaque envelope than what is required in traditional stick-framed construction. Fewer joints mean fewer locations where the air- and water-resistive barrier (WRB) could be compromised; thus, a CLT building enclosure may require less maintenance and have a longer lifespan than a traditionally built structure because of fewer air and water leaks. In addition, CLT’s thermal mass moderates indoor temperatures, allowing the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system to operate more efficiently during peak hours, reducing operational energy consumption throughout the lifetime of the CLT building (Salonvaara et al., 2022). Furthermore, more stable indoor temperatures can increase occupant comfort. The CLT’s thermal mass can also reduce energy costs by adjusting to utility time-of-use pricing without affecting occupant comfort. The ability of CLT buildings to bridge periods without HVAC operation prepares them for future grid interaction and provides a certain level of resilience against power outages. Researchers have attempted to quantify these benefits; however, their work is based on simplified simulations with numerous assumptions. To correctly understand the benefits, an actual building must be monitored. Therefore, information needs to be gathered on indoor and outdoor temperatures, HVAC energy consumption, thermostat setpoints, temperatures, and thermal transport in CLT components to comprehend how these parameters are affected by the CLT’s thermal mass. These data are needed to reduce the number of assumptions and calibrate simulation models to optimize HVAC controls to minimize overall energy consumption, reduce energy use and higher fees during peak demand, and maintain occupant comfort. Additionally, the calibrated simulation model allows the optimization exercise to be repeated in various US climates. Potential benefits can be tailored to buildings in various locations, and decisions can be made on where CLT construction could be most advantageous. Furthermore, monitoring and simulation results are needed to evaluate the durability of the CLT structures in different climates. This project’s researchers gathered information to help understand and quantify the benefits of CLT buildings concerning operational energy, moderated indoor temperatures, and comfort; the dynamic operation to provide grid services; and resilience in times of power outage. Through the corroboration of simulation models with real-world measurements, this study paves the way for extrapolating findings to other climatic zones and building typologies, thereby broadening the understanding of CLT’s multifaceted benefits and reinforcing its position as a material of choice in sustainable construction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory Building 59

The building management system in Building 59 is monitoring and archiving building-level electricity usage, HVAC and lighting system states (e.g., setpoint, temperature, flow rate, pressure), indoor environmental conditions (air temperature, relative humidity, CO2), on-site weather (air temperature, relative humidity), and especially occupant counts as well as other metrics such as Wi-Fi signal. This dataset could support multiple use cases, such as model predictive control and occupant related demand management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory Building 59 (Raw)

The building management system in Building 59 is monitoring and archiving building-level electricity usage, HVAC and lighting system states (e.g., setpoint, temperature, flow rate, pressure), indoor environmental conditions (air temperature, relative humidity, CO2), on-site weather (air temperature, relative humidity), and especially occupant counts as well as other metrics such as Wi-Fi signal. This dataset could support multiple use cases, such as model predictive control and occupant related demand management. Raw data.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab Building 59

The building management system in Building 59 is monitoring and archiving building-level electricity usage, HVAC and lighting system states (e.g., setpoint, temperature, flow rate, pressure), indoor environmental conditions (air temperature, relative humidity, CO2), on-site weather (air temperature, relative humidity), and especially occupant counts as well as other metrics such as Wi-Fi signal. This dataset could support multiple use cases, such as model predictive control and occupant related demand management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Machine Learning for Conservative-to-Primitive in Relativistic Hydrodynamics

The numerical solution of relativistic hydrodynamics equations in conservative form requires root-finding algorithms that invert the conservative-to-primitive variables map. These algorithms employ the equation of state of the fluid and can be computationally demanding for applications involving sophisticated microphysics models, such as those required to calculate accurate gravitational wave signals in numerical relativity simulations of binary neutron stars. This work explores the use of machine learning methods to speed up the recovery of primitives in relativistic hydrodynamics. Artificial neural networks are trained to replace either the interpolations of a tabulated equation of state or directly the conservative-to-primitive map. The application of these neural networks to simple benchmark problems shows that both approaches improve over traditional root finders with tabular equation-of-state and multi-dimensional interpolations. In particular, the neural networks for the conservative-to-primitive map accelerate the variable recovery by more than an order of magnitude over standard methods while maintaining accuracy. Neural networks are thus an interesting option to improve the speed and robustness of relativistic hydrodynamics algorithms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution

Electrification of end-use technologies could have important implications for bulk power sector planning, operations, and impacts. By combining previously-defined electrification scenarios with capacity expansion modeling, we evaluate the potential challenges and opportunities associated with electrification. Our scenario analysis reveals that electrification reduces energy consumption and air emissions from across the energy sector, and its impacts on energy system costs are modest due, in part, to the abundance of low-cost resources in the United States.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗