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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The principle of minimal power

This article is devoted to the memory of Yuri P Raizer, who passed away in 2021. He left a noticeable trace in gas discharge physics. The principle of minimal power (the state that requires minimal power is most probable) is thoroughly used in his books. Although the fundamental laws of physics do not imply this ad hoc principle, a detailed analysis of underlying phenomena can often reveal why nature prefers this path. Raizer illustrated this principle for plasma stratification, formation of electrode spots, discharge constriction, the shape of an arc channel, etc. We argue that the nonlinearity of equations describing gas discharges can often justify the realization of a plasma state maintained at minimal electric power. This nonlinearity appears because small groups of energetic electrons often control the ionization processes. The number of these electrons depends strongly on the ratio of the electric field to gas density, E/N. Under certain conditions, the ionization rate can also depend nonlinearly on electron density due to stepwise ionization and Coulomb collisions. Here, we use the principle of minimal power to illustrate some of Raizer's contributions to gas discharge physics from a single point of view. We demonstrate that nonlinearity of ionization processes in gas discharges can substantiate this principle for plasma stratification. However, striations of s, p, and r types in neon could exist with minimal or no ionization enhancement. This reminds us of Raizer's warning that applying the minimal power principle could lead to erroneous predictions, and a proper theory is required in each case to justify its use. 'The phenomenon of striations satisfies the principle of minimal power' – Yuri Raizer

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Etching of Si 3 N 4 induced by electron beam plasma from hollow cathode plasma in a downstream reactive environment

An etching system based on the interaction of electrons extracted from a direct current (DC) hollow-cathode (HC) Ar plasma and injected towards a Si3N4 covered silicon substrate located in the downstream reactive environment created by an additional remote CF 4 /O 2 plasma source was developed and evaluated. By controlling the properties of the injected beam electrons, this approach allows to deliver energy to a surface functionalized by exposure to reactive species, and initiate surface etching. The energy of the primary beam electrons is controlled by the acceleration voltage relative to the HC discharge. Ar atoms flow from the high-pressure HC discharge into the low pressure downstream reactive environment in the process chamber. For an acceleration voltage greater than the ionization potential of Ar and/or process gas species, the energetic primary beam electrons produce a secondary plasma in the process chamber, and can also cause additional dissociation. We have characterized the properties of the secondary plasma and also surface etching of Si 3 N 4 as a function of process parameters, including acceleration voltage (0-80 V), discharge current of the HC discharge (1-2 A), pressure (3.5-20 mTorr), source to substrate distance (1.5 to 5 cm), and feed gas composition (20% and 80% O2 in CF 4 /O 2 ). The electron energy probability function (EEPF) measured with a Langmuir probe about 2.5 cm below the extraction ring suggests several major groups of electrons for this situation, including high energy primary beam electrons with an energy that varies as the acceleration voltage is changed and low energy electrons produced by beam electron-induced ionization of the Ar gas in the process chamber. When a remote CF 4 /O 2 plasma is additionally coupled to the process chamber, Si 3 N 4 surfaces can be functionalized, and by varying the energy of the beam electrons, Si 3 N 4 etching can be induced by electron-neutral synergy effect with plasma-surface interaction. For conditions without beam electron injection, the remote plasma etching rate (ER) of Si 3 N 4 depends strongly on the O 2 concentration in the CF 4 /O 2 processing gas mixture and can be suppressed for O 2 -rich process conditions by the formation of a SiONF passivation layer on the Si 3 N 4 surface. The combination of the HC electron beam source with the remote plasma source (HCEB-RP) makes it possible to induce Si 3 N 4 etching for O 2 -rich remote plasma conditions where remote plasma by itself produces negligible Si 3 N 4 etching. The electron enhanced etching of Si 3 N 4 depends strongly on O 2 /CF 4 mixing ratio reflecting changing arrival rates of O and F species at the surface. Optical emission spectroscopy was used to estimate the ratio of gas phase F and O densities and found to be controlled by the gas mixing ratio and independent of HC EB operating conditions. At this time the detailed sequence of events operative in the etching mechanism is unclear. While the increase of the electron energy is ultimately responsible for initiating surface etching, at present we cannot rule out a role of ions from the simultaneously produced secondary plasma in plasma surface interaction mechanisms.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neural Network-Based Electric Vehicle Range Prediction for Smart Charging Optimization

Range prediction is a standard feature in most modern road vehicles, allowing drivers to make informed decisions about when to refuel. Most vehicles make range predictions through data- or model-driven means, monitoring the average fuel consumption rate or using a tuned vehicle model to predict fuel consumption. The uncertainty of future driving conditions makes the range prediction problem challenging, particularly for less pervasive battery electric vehicles (BEV). Most contemporary machine learning-based methods attempt to forecast the battery SOC discharge profile to predict vehicle range. In this work, we propose a novel approach using two recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to predict the remaining range of BEVs and the minimum charge required to safely complete a trip. Each RNN has two outputs that can be used for statistical analysis to account for uncertainties; the first loss function leads to mean and variance estimation (MVE), while the second results in bounded interval estimation (BIE). These outputs of the proposed RNNs are then used to predict the probability of a vehicle completing a given trip without charging, or if charging is needed, the remaining range and minimum charging required to finish the trip with high probability. Training data was generated using a low-order physics model to estimate vehicle energy consumption from historical drive cycle data collected from medium-duty last-mile delivery vehicles. Here, the proposed method demonstrated high accuracy in the presence of day-to-day route variability, with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) below 6% for both RNN models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Molecular dynamics simulations of reflection and sputtering behavior of boron under deuterium ion irradiation

Boronization is a commonly used method of wall conditioning in fusion reactors. The application of boron films to the plasma-facing materials results in enhanced plasma performance due to the reduction of intrinsic impurities. This is primarily driven by a reduction in oxygen content that is chemically trapped in the boron film. The reactive nature of these boron films also raises questions concerning interactions with hydrogen isotopes. In this work, boron-deuterium interactions were studied using molecular dynamics (MD). Reactive force field potentials were used to model the chemical interactions between B and D. An amorphous boron substrate was irradiated by D atoms at varying incident energies, 10 eV < E i < 150 eV and angles, 0° < α < 85°. The reflection probability was calculated and compared to results from the commonly-used binary collision approximation (BCA) method. This comparison found that the BCA underestimated the reflection probability at E i < 35 eV and α > 45 ∘ . The source of this discrepancy was found to be the surface binding energy model. The BCA calculation with an isotropic surface binding energy model was more closely aligned to the MD result. This, in combination with a correction function based on the MD results allows for corrections to the reflection probability of deuterium impinging on boron surfaces. The sputtering of the substrate material was also studied. While this study did not contain sufficient events to quantitatively describe the sputtering behavior, some qualitative results emerged: namely, chemical sputtering of B and D-containing molecules (BD, BD 2 , BD 3 ) at low ( < 20 eV) incident deuterium energies. This result suggests that chemical sputtering could be a significant factor in limiting boron coating lifetime when exposed to lower ion energies, such as those in detached plasmas. The results show that chemical interactions should be taken into account when modeling the interactions between D ions and B surfaces.

Boron↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ensemble flow reconstruction in the atmospheric boundary layer from spatially limited measurements through latent diffusion models

Due to costs and practical constraints, field campaigns in the atmospheric boundary layer typically only measure a fraction of the atmospheric volume of interest. Machine learning techniques have previously successfully reconstructed unobserved regions of flow in canonical fluid mechanics problems and two-dimensional geophysical flows, but these techniques have not yet been demonstrated in the three-dimensional atmospheric boundary layer. Here, we conduct a numerical analogue of a field campaign with spatially limited measurements using large-eddy simulation. We pose flow reconstruction as an inpainting problem, and reconstruct realistic samples of turbulent, three-dimensional flow with the use of a latent diffusion model. The diffusion model generates physically plausible turbulent structures on larger spatial scales, even when input observations cover less than 1% of the volume. Through a combination of qualitative visualization and quantitative assessment, we demonstrate that the diffusion model generates meaningfully diverse samples when conditioned on just one observation. These samples successfully serve as initial conditions for a large-eddy simulation code. We find that diffusion models show promise and potential for other applications for other turbulent flow reconstruction problems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analysis and modeling of tungsten emission and net erosion in the DIII-D divertor using updated atomic data

Tungsten (W) is one of the leading candidate materials for plasma-facing components. However, its main drawback is its high radiative efficiency; if W penetrates the plasma, it can lead to core degradation or even collapse. Since eroded tungsten tends to ionize in the sheath and redeposit promptly, the net erosion flux that escapes prompt redeposition can differ significantly from the gross erosion. This work presents a modeling framework to estimate net erosion and photon emission from W coatings exposed to the lower divertor of DIII-D using the DiMES material exposure probe. The approach couples RustBCA for sputtering yields with a Monte Carlo transport code (LPTMC) that models redeposition and W emission. Computation is carried out with new atomic data, based on R-matrix and Mons calculations, leading to lower ionization probabilities and a twofold increase in net erosion estimates compared to calculations done with OPEN-ADAS atomic data. The model results are benchmarked against experimental measurements, showing quantitative agreement for erosion, although the trends in W emission are reproduced only qualitatively. The model is also used to assess whether W II emission can serve as a direct measurement of the net erosion of W in the lower divertor of DIII-D. Simulations show that this is not valid if the electron pressure is above ~120 Pa or if the toroidal length of the eroded material is smaller than the parallel-to-B distance traveled by impurity ions before steady-state conditions are reached. Finally, simulations suggest that when W is sputtered by carbon ions with high impact energies (≳300 eV) in DIII-D, W net erosion scales with W gross erosion and can be numerically approximated using W I flux alone as input.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using discrete Bayesian networks for diagnosing and isolating cross-level faults in HVAC systems

Fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) technologies are critical to ensure satisfactory building performance, such as reducing energy wastes and negative impacts on occupant comfort and productivity. Existing FDD technologies mainly focus on component-level FDD solutions, which could lead to mis-diagnosis of cross-level faults in heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. Cross-level faults are those faults that occur in one component or subsystem, but cause operational abnormalities in other components or subsystems, and result in a building level performance degradation. How to effectively diagnose the root cause of a cross-level fault is the focus of this study. Here, this paper presents a novel discrete Bayesian Network (DisBN)-based method for diagnosing cross-level faults in an HVAC system commonly used in commercial buildings. A two-level DisBN structure model is developed in this study. The parameters used in the DisBN model are obtained either from expert knowledge or through machine-learning strategies from normal system operation data. Meanwhile, the probability parameters are discretized to incorporate the uncertainties associated with typical expert knowledge. Thus, the developed DisBN method addresses the challenges many other BN based FDD methods face, i.e., the lack of fault data for BN parameter training. The developed DisBN represents causal relationships between a fault and its cross-level system impacts (i.e., fault symptoms or fault indicators) by considering how fault impacts propagate across different levels in an HVAC system. A weather and schedule information-based Pattern Matching (WPM) method is employed to automatically create WPM baseline data sets for each incoming real time snapshot data from the building systems. Consequently, BN inference and real-time diagnostics are achieved by comparing incoming snapshot data and the WPM baseline data set. The proposed method is evaluated using experimental fault data collected in a campus building. Fault diagnosis results demonstrate that the WPM-DisBN method is effective at locating the root causes of cross-level faults in an HVAC system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Large‐ and small‐seeded species have contrasting functional neighborhoods in a subtropical forest

Abstract Forest community composition is the outcome of multiple forces, including those that increase taxonomic and functional divergence and those that promote convergence in traits. The mechanisms underlying these forces may not operate homogenously within communities; individuals of different species are never perfectly mixed, and thus, species tend to be surrounded and interact with different subsets of species. In fact, taxonomic and functional composition of neighborhoods of different focal species can be highly variable. Here, we examine whether mechanisms driving species‐level neighborhoods relate to intrinsic characteristics of focal species such as differences in life‐history and resource‐uptake strategies and in turn relate to species survival. We focus on two key characteristics: (1) seed mass, which defines a dominant axis of life‐history strategies related to stress tolerance, and (2) understory light preferences that sort species from light‐demanding pioneers to shade‐tolerant. We monitored seedling communities over 10 yr in Puerto Rico and calculated neighborhood trait dispersion in species‐level neighborhoods using seven functional traits. We examined whether species‐level characteristics, seed mass and preferred light conditions, influence patterns of functional dispersion in seedling neighborhoods using linear models. Then, we examined how species‐level functional neighborhoods impact seedling survival. We found that small‐ and large‐seeded species diverge in the type of functional neighborhoods they associate with. Large‐seeded species associate with neighbors that are more similar than expected in leaf economic traits, but more different than expected in seed mass and leaf area traits, while the opposite was found for small‐seeded species. This variation in species functional neighborhood was important in determining seedling survival. In sum, our results suggest that divergent and convergent forces do not operate homogenously over entire communities. Their relative role changes in space, and on a species‐by‐species basis, probably with a deterministic foundation linked to traits such as seed mass.

Umaña, María Natalia↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improbability of Post-Closure Criticality in Array of Transuranic Waste Containers after Compaction by Salt Creep at Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Based on the rationale presented, post-closure nuclear criticality is improbable when room closure compacts containers disposing transuranic (TRU) waste emplaced at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), an operating repository in bedded salt in southeastern New Mexico. As described in the original WIPP certification, a qualitative estimate of the probability of post-closure criticality in TRU waste produced from atomic energy defense activities has been low either because remote-handled TRU waste canisters are neutronically isolated by the bedded salt or because the low fissile mass in an array of contact-handled TRU waste drums cannot be compacted sufficiently by room closure from salt creep. These situations are still valid for the majority of TRU waste that is disposed at WIPP without any disposal constraints, as updated herein. This report also qualitatively evaluates the probability of criticality after disposal of TRU waste in pipe overpack containers (POC) where every POC in a shipment may have the maximum 200 fissile gram equivalent of 239Pu content. The probability of criticality for a disposal room filled with POCs is estimated during four representative phases of repository evolution: (1) a large salt block falls onto POCs in the first 20 years, (2) salt creep closes a disposal room in the first 1000 years without brine seepage and subsequent gas generation, which permits maximum compaction, (3) some brine seepage occurs into the closed room, which initiates consumption of the fiberboard (cellulose) impact absorber in the POC in the second 1000 years, and (4) full brine inundation of a room and consumption of all fiberboard thereafter. Salt-block fall in the first phase does not greatly disrupt three tiers of POCs. The compacted spacing of POCs in the later three repository conditions is calculated through high-fidelity, geomechanical modeling. Criticality evaluation of compacted 200-g 239 Pu spheres at the compacted spacing shows that neither 12-inch nor 6-inch POCs are critical after the first 1000 years, the second 1000 years, or thereafter as the sea of reflector material changes to represent the three repository conditions. Specifically, fiberboard and iron isolates 239 Pu while dry, and brine reduces the reactivity when a room is partially and fully inundated. Because POC behavior bounds behavior of other standard TRU waste containers, post-closure criticality caused by room closure compacting containers is omitted in the performance assessments for the 2019 and 2026 WIPP compliance re-certification applications to the US Environmental Protection Agency.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Behavioral responses of fish to a current-based hydrokinetic turbine under mutliple operational conditions

There is significant international interest in developing current-based marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) technologies to capture the power of tidal energy. However, concerns have been raised regarding the ecological effects of these projects on fish, including the risk of blade collision and behavioral impacts such as the disruption of migratory behavior and food acquisition and displacement from preferred habitats. In this study, we conducted mobile hydroacoustic surveys to track fish as they approached a tidal turbine deployed in Cobscook Bay, Maine. There was a significant decline in fish numbers with decreasing distance to the turbine, beginning approximately 140 m from the turbine. Similar declines were not observed at control transects or when the turbine was not spinning. The decline in fish numbers appeared to be the result of horizontal displacement, not vertical, movements to avoid the turbine. Noise rather than visual cues or flow field disturbance seemed to be a likely explanation for the reduced number of fish near the turbine. This finding, combined with near-field blade collision studies indicating a low probability of encounter, suggests that a single turbine poses a low collision risk to pelagic fish and that a single turbine is likely to result in minimal behavioral responses by fish. However, the risk may be different with additional devices, which will become more relevant as commercial-scale MHK arrays come under consideration. Therefore, the risks associated with commercial-scale operations will ultimately have to be evaluated to fully understand the ecological impacts of MHK devices.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Voltage Sensitivity based Preemptive Voltage Monitoring in Unbalanced Distribution Networks

With increasing penetration of renewable energy and active consumers, control and management of power distribution networks has become challenging. Renewable energy sources can cause random voltage fluctuations as their output power depends on weather conditions. Conventional voltage control schemes such as tap changers and capacitor banks lack the foresight required to quickly alleviate voltage violations. Thus, there is an urgent need for effective approaches for predicting and mitigating voltage violations as a result of random fluctuations in power injections. This work proposes a novel voltage monitoring approach based on low-complexity, data-driven probabilistic voltage sensitivity analysis. The usefulness of this work is not only in predicting voltage violations in unbalanced distribution grids, but also in opening up the door for optimal voltage control. Using system data and forecasts, the proposed approach predicts the distribution of system node voltages which is then used to to identify nodes that may violate the nominal operational limits with high probability. The method is tested on the IEEE 37 node distribution system considering integrated distributed solar energy sources. The method is validated against the classic load flow based method and offers over 95% accuracy in predicting voltage violations.

Abujubbeh, Mohammad↗
DOE OSTI2024

Detection of small drizzle droplets in a large cloud chamber using ultrahigh-resolution radar

Abstract. A large convection–cloud chamber has the potential to produce drizzle-sized droplets, thus offering a new opportunity to investigate aerosol–cloud–drizzle interactions at a fundamental level under controlled environmental conditions. One key measurement requirement is the development of methods to detect the low-concentration drizzle drops in such a large cloud chamber. In particular, remote sensing methods may overcome some limitations of in situ methods. Here, the potential of an ultrahigh-resolution radar to detect the radar return signal of a small drizzle droplet against the cloud droplet background signal is investigated. It is found that using a small sampling volume is critical to drizzle detection in a cloud chamber to allow a drizzle drop in the radar sampling volume to dominate over the background cloud droplet signal. For instance, a radar volume of 1 cubic centimeter (cm3) would enable the detection of drizzle embryos with diameter larger than 40 µm. However, the probability of drizzle sampling also decreases as the sample volume reduces, leading to a longer observation time. Thus, the selection of radar volume should consider both the signal power and the drizzle occurrence probability. Finally, observations from the Pi Convection–Cloud Chamber are used to demonstrate the single-drizzle-particle detection concept using small radar volume. The results presented in this study also suggest new applications of ultrahigh-resolution cloud radar for atmospheric sensing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved Heralded Single-Photon Source with a Photon-Number-Resolving Superconducting Nanowire Detector

Deterministic generation of single photons is essential for many quantum information technologies. A bulk optical nonlinearity emitting a photon pair, where the measurement of one of the photons heralds the presence of the other, is commonly used with the caveat that the single-photon emission rate is constrained due to a trade-off between multiphoton events and pair emission rate. Using an efficient and low noise photon-number-resolving superconducting nanowire detector we herald, in real time, a single photon at telecommunication wavelength. We perform a second-order photon correlation g 2 ( 0 ) measurement of the signal mode conditioned on the measured photon number of the idler mode for various pump powers and demonstrate an improvement of a heralded single-photon source. We develop an analytical model using a phase-space formalism that encompasses all multiphoton effects and relevant imperfections, such as loss and multiple Schmidt modes. We perform a maximum-likelihood fit to test the agreement of the model to the data and extract the best-fit mean photon number μ of the pair source for each pump power. A maximum reduction of 0.118 ± 0.012 in the photon g 2 ( 0 ) correlation function at μ = 0.327 ± 0.007 is obtained, indicating a strong suppression of multiphoton emissions. For a fixed g 2 ( 0 ) = 7 × 10 − 3 , we increase the single pair generation probability by 25%. Our experiment, built using fiber-coupled and off-the-shelf components, delineates a path to engineering ideal sources of single photons.

Davis, Samantha I.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neural correspondence to spectrum of environmental uncertainty in multiple-cue probability judgment system with time delay

Despite state-of-the-art technologies like artificial intelligence, human judgment is critically essential in cooperative systems, such as the multi-agent system (MAS), which collect information among agents based on multiple-cue judgment. Human agents can prevent impaired situational awareness of automated agents by confirming situations under environmental uncertainty. System error caused by uncertainty can result in an unreliable system environment, and this environment affects the human agent, resulting in non-optimal decision-making in MAS. Thus, it is necessary to know how human behavior is changed to capture system reliability under uncertainty. Another issue affecting MAS is time delay, which can delay agent information transfer, resulting in low performance and instability. However, it is difficult to find studies on the influence of time delay on human agents. This study is about understanding the human decision-making process under a specific system reliability environment by uncertainty with time delay. We used concepts of expected and unexpected uncertainty to implement reliability of the system usage environment with three types of time delay conditions: no time delay, regular time delay, and irregular time delay conditions. We used electroencephalogram (EEG) for human cognitive neural mechanisms in multiple-cue judgment systems to understand human decision-making. In the reliability of system usage environment, the unreliable system environment significantly creates less memory load by less utilization of system rules for decision-making. In terms of time delay, delayed information delivery does not significantly affect memory load for decision-making.

cognitive process↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application and Certification of Comparative Vacuum Monitoring Sensors for Structural Health Monitoring of 737 Wing Box Fittings

Multi-site fatigue damage, hidden cracks in hard-to-reach locations, disbonded joints, erosion, impact, and corrosion are among the major flaws encountered in today's extensive fleet of aging aircraft and space vehicles. The use of in-situ sensors for real-time health monitoring of aircraft structures are a viable option to overcome inspection impediments stemming from accessibility limitations, complex geometries, and the location and depth of hidden damage. Reliable, structural health monitoring systems can automatically process data, assess structural condition, and signal the need for human intervention. Prevention of unexpected flaw growth and structural failure can be improved if on-board health monitoring systems are used to continuously assess structural integrity. Such systems are able to detect incipient damage before catastrophic failures occurs. Condition-based maintenance practices could be substituted for the current time-based maintenance approach. Other advantages of on-board distributed sensor systems are that they can eliminate costly, and potentially damaging, disassembly, improve sensitivity by producing optimum placement of sensors and decrease maintenance costs by eliminating more time- consuming manual inspections. This report presents a Sandia Labs-aviation industry effort to move SHM into routine use for aircraft maintenance. This program addressed formal SHM technology validation and certification issues so that the full spectrum of concerns, including design, deployment, performance and certification were appropriately considered. The Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) at Sandia Labs, in conjunction with Boeing, Delta Air Lines, Structural Monitoring Systems Ltd., Anodyne Electronics Manufacturing Corp. and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) carried out a certification program to formally introduce Comparative Vacuum Monitoring (CVM) as a structural health monitoring solution to a specific aircraft wing box application. Validation tasks were designed to address the SHM equipment, the health monitoring task, the resolution required, the sensor interrogation procedures, the conditions under which the monitoring will occur, the potential inspector population, adoption of CVM into an airline maintenance program and the document revisions necessary to allow for routine use of CVM as an alternate means of performing periodic structural inspects. To carry out the validation process, knowledge of aircraft maintenance practices was coupled with an unbiased, independent evaluation. Sandia Labs designed, implemented, and analyzed the results from a focused and statistically-relevant experimental effort to quantify the reliability of the CVM system applied to the Boeing 737 Wing Box fitting application. All factors that affect SHM sensitivity were included in this program: flaw size, shape, orientation and location relative to the sensors, as well as operational and environmental variables. Statistical methods were applied to performance data to derive Probability of Detection (POD) values for CVM sensors in a manner that agrees with current nondestructive inspection (NDI) validation requirements and also is acceptable to both the aviation industry and regulatory bodies. This report presents the use of several different statistical methods, some of them adapted from NDI performance assessments and some proposed to address the unique nature of damage detection via SHM systems, and discusses how they can converge to produce a confident quantification of SHM performance An important element in developing SHM validation processes is a clear understanding of the regulatory measures needed to adopt SHM solutions along with the knowledge of the structural and maintenance characteristics that may impact the operational performance of an SHM system. This report describes the major elements of an SHM validation approach and differentiates the SHM elements from those found in NDI validation. The activities conducted in this program demonstrated the feasibility of routine SHM usage in general and CVM in particular for the application selected. They also helped establish an optimum OEM-airline-regulator process and determined how to safely adopt SHM solutions. This formal SHM validation will allow aircraft manufacturers and airlines to confidently make informed decisions about the proper utilization of CVM technology. It will also streamline the regulatory actions and formal certification measures needed to assure the safe application of SHM solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021

Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in several cities in the Pacific Northwest areas of the US and Canada, leading to spikes in sudden deaths and sharp increases in emergency calls and hospital visits for heat-related illnesses. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis to investigate the extent to which human-induced climate change has influenced the probability and intensity of extreme heat waves in this region. Based on observations, modelling and a classical statistical approach, the occurrence of a heat wave defined as the maximum daily temperature (TXx) observed in the area 45–52 °N, 119–123 °W, was found to be virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The observed temperatures were so extreme that they lay far outside the range of historical temperature observations. This makes it hard to state with confidence how rare the event was. Using a statistical analysis that assumes that the heat wave is part of the same distribution as previous heat waves in this region led to a first-order estimation of the event frequency of the order of once in 1000 years under current climate conditions. Using this assumption and combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, we found that such a heat wave event would be at least 150 times less common without human-induced climate change. Also, this heat wave was about 2 °C hotter than a 1-in-1000-year heat wave would have been in 1850–1900, when global mean temperatures were 1.2 °C cooler than today. Looking into the future, in a world with 2 °C of global warming (0.8 °C warmer than today), a 1000-year event would be another degree hotter. Our results provide a strong warning: our rapidly warming climate is bringing us into uncharted territory with significant consequences for health, well-being and livelihoods. Adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare societies for a very different future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Annual cycle of aerosol properties over the central Arctic during MOSAiC 2019–2020 – light-extinction, CCN, and INP levels from the boundary layer to the tropopause

Abstract. The MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition was the largest Arctic field campaign ever conducted. MOSAiC offered the unique opportunity to monitor and characterize aerosols and clouds with high vertical resolution up to 30 km height at latitudes from 80 to 90∘ N over an entire year (October 2019 to September 2020). Without a clear knowledge of the complex aerosol layering, vertical structures, and dominant aerosol types and their impact on cloud formation, a full understanding of the meteorological processes in the Arctic, and thus advanced climate change research, is impossible. Widespread ground-based in situ observations in the Arctic are insufficient to provide these required aerosol and cloud data. In this article, a summary of our MOSAiC observations of tropospheric aerosol profiles with a state-of-the-art multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar aboard the icebreaker Polarstern is presented. Particle optical properties, i.e., light-extinction profiles and aerosol optical thickness (AOT), and estimates of cloud-relevant aerosol properties such as the number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice-nucleating particles (INPs) are discussed, separately for the lowest part of the troposphere (atmospheric boundary layer, ABL), within the lower free troposphere (around 2000 m height), and at the cirrus level close to the tropopause. In situ observations of the particle number concentration and INPs aboard Polarstern are included in the study. A strong decrease in the aerosol amount with height in winter and moderate vertical variations in summer were observed in terms of the particle extinction coefficient. The 532 nm light-extinction values dropped from >50 Mm−1 close to the surface to <5 Mm−1 at 4–6 km height in the winter months. Lofted, aged wildfire smoke layers caused a re-increase in the aerosol concentration towards the tropopause. In summer (June to August 2020), much lower particle extinction coefficients, frequently as low as 1–5 Mm−1, were observed in the ABL. Aerosol removal, controlled by in-cloud and below-cloud scavenging processes (widely suppressed in winter and very efficient in summer) in the lowermost 1–2 km of the atmosphere, seems to be the main reason for the strong differences between winter and summer aerosol conditions. A complete annual cycle of the AOT in the central Arctic could be measured. This is a valuable addition to the summertime observations with the sun photometers of the Arctic Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). In line with the pronounced annual cycle in the aerosol optical properties, typical CCN number concentrations (0.2 % supersaturation level) ranged from 50–500 cm−3 in winter to 10–100 cm−3 in summer in the ABL. In the lower free troposphere (at 2000 m), however, the CCN level was roughly constant throughout the year, with values mostly from 30 to 100 cm−3. A strong contrast between winter and summer was also given in terms of ABL INPs which control ice production in low-level clouds. While soil dust (from surrounding continents) is probably the main INP type during the autumn, winter, and spring months, local sea spray aerosol (with a biogenic aerosol component) seems to dominate the ice nucleation in the ABL during the summer months (June–August). The strong winter vs. summer contrast in the INP number concentration by roughly 2–3 orders of magnitude in the lower troposphere is, however, mainly caused by the strong cloud temperature contrast. A unique event of the MOSAiC expedition was the occurrence of a long-lasting wildfire smoke layer in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Our observations suggest that the smoke particles frequently triggered cirrus formation close to the tropopause from October 2019 to May 2020.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mapping the Morphology of DNA on Carbon Nanotubes in Solution Using X-ray Scattering Interferometry

Single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) with adsorbed single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) are applied as sensors to investigate biological systems, with potential applications ranging from clinical diagnostics to agricultural biotechnology. Unique ssDNA sequences render SWCNTs selectively responsive to target analytes such as (GT)n-SWCNTs recognizing the neuromodulator, dopamine. It remains unclear how the ssDNA conformation on the SWCNT surface contributes to functionality, as observations have been limited to computational models or experiments under dehydrated conditions that differ substantially from the aqueous biological environments in which the nanosensors are applied. We demonstrate a direct mode of measuring in-solution ssDNA geometries on SWCNTs via X-ray scattering interferometry (XSI), which leverages the interference pattern produced by AuNP tags conjugated to ssDNA on the SWCNT surface. We employ XSI to quantify distinct surface-adsorbed morphologies for two (GT) n ssDNA oligomer lengths (n = 6, 15) that are used on SWCNTs in the context of dopamine sensing and measure the ssDNA conformational changes as a function of ionic strength and during dopamine interaction. Here, we show that the shorter oligomer, (GT) 6 , adopts a more periodically ordered ring structure along the SWCNT axis (inter-ssDNA distance of 8.6 ± 0.3 nm), compared to the longer (GT) 15 oligomer (most probable 5'-to-5' distance of 14.3 ± 1.1 nm). During molecular recognition, XSI reveals that dopamine elicits simultaneous axial elongation and radial constriction of adsorbed ssDNA on the SWCNT surface. Our approach using XSI to probe solution-phase morphologies of polymer-functionalized SWCNTs can be applied to yield insights into sensing mechanisms and inform future design strategies for nanoparticle-based sensors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗