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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting for ESCAPE: A Multi-Institution Hybrid Forecasting and Nowcasting Operation for Sea-Breeze Convection Supporting a Ground-Based and Airborne Field Campaign

The Experiment of Sea-Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) field project deployed two aircraft and ground-based assets in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, between 27 May and 2 July 2022, examining how meteorological conditions, dynamics, and aerosols control the initiation, early growth stage, and evolution of coastal convective clouds. To ensure that airborne- and ground-based assets were deployed appropriately, a forecasting and nowcasting team was formed. Daily forecasts guided real-time decision-making by assessing synoptic weather conditions, environmental aerosol, and a variety of atmospheric modeling data to assign a probability for meeting specific ESCAPE campaign objectives. During the research flights, a small team of forecasters provided “nowcasting” support by analyzing radar, satellite, and new model data in real time. The nowcasting team proved invaluable to the campaign operation, as sometimes changing environmental conditions affected, for example, the timing of convective initiation. In addition to the success of the forecasting and nowcasting teams, the ESCAPE campaign offered a unique “testbed” opportunity where in-person and virtual support both contributed to campaign objectives. The forecasting and nowcasting teams were each composed of new and experienced forecasters alike, where new forecasters were given invaluable experience that would otherwise be difficult to attain. Both teams received training on forecast models, map analysis, Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT), and thermodynamic sounding analysis before the beginning of the campaign. In this article, the ESCAPE forecasting and nowcasting teams reflect on these experiences, providing potentially useful advice for future field campaigns requiring forecasting and nowcasting support in a hybrid virtual/in-person framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transportation Hub Infrastructure Expansion: Decision Support Under Uncertainty

The Athena project (www.athena-mobility.org) has worked to investigate the relationship between the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport (DFW) and the greater Dallas area in order to better understand and therefore better inform future decision-making regarding the critical infrastructure that influence mobility between the airport and the city. Through this work, infrastructure related to curbside pickup and drop-off, parking, public transit, and the road network congestion were identified as critical to the operation of the DFW transportation hub. The infrastructure analysis and expansion aspect of the Athena project is focused on the restructuring of the CTA curb as a hierarchical curb and the building or repurposing of parking infrastructure as the interplay between these two areas. Many sources of uncertainty exist that may impact future airport and transportation hub operations, such as passenger volume growth, population demographic changes over time, electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates, and autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption rates. Due to these sources of uncertainty, we have selected for our research a modeling framework that can capture various types of uncertainty and hedge against those uncertainties in the optimization process. We analyze road network and curb congestion, the rise of transportation networking companies, trends in parking usage, existing policies around this infrastructure, airport revenue streams, and other contributing factors to enable infrastructure decision making with less uncertainty. To accomplish this wholistic analysis, we have developed a novel multi-stage, multi-period stochastic optimization model which considers the airport's decisions from 2025-2045 under different possible future macro trajectories and day-to-day variations in operational conditions captured as "annual representation of operations" scenarios with respective probabilities. This model has also been designed to leverage the outputs of various efforts under the Athena project to create a combined decision framework for infrastructure decisions. These various efforts include the route optimization model, the ASPIRES simulation, the mode choice model, and the SUMO traffic simulation. Our computational experiments of this system at scale have resulted in a working version of our infrastructure model which enables the explicit representation and consideration of various sources of uncertainty in the decision process to enable robust, flexible decision-making. This model has been effectively run on NREL's HPC system, Eagle, with large numbers of stochastic scenarios and shows promise as a scalable tool for robust consideration of uncertainties in airport planning. We have tested our model using 30,240 operational circumstances in total, resulting in a problem with more 200 million variables. This model was solved in several different configurations, and a workflow to simulate the performance of the infrastructure model results was developed and deployed. In general, our results indicate that a combination of remote parking, remote curb infrastructure, and dynamic pricing can generate revenue, reduce emissions, accommodate emerging technologies such as AVs and EVs, and manage airport passenger growth over time. We note the success of the proposed strategy depends on the data collection and forecasting abilities of DFW. We have also seen that the AV adoption by TNCs might necessitate larger amounts of remote curb. The results of this work inform strategies for airport infrastructure decision making, as well as demonstrate the value of an adaptable model, but also indicate that there are avenues remaining where further research would be of value.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cyber100 Compass: Quantification of Cybersecurity Risks for Systems Transitioning to High Levels of Renewables (Final Report)

The shift to high levels of renewable deployment will entail a significant re-engineering of the grid. As investors, utilities, customers, and others prepare for clean energy transitions, there is need to understand how restructuring the grid to accommodate renewables will change the attack surface of the grid and accompanying cyber risk. However, today the cyber-physical risks associated with electric grids incorporating high levels of renewable deployment remain largely unknown. The Cyber100 Compass proof-of-concept application attempts to quantify future cyber-physical security risks by combining risk data gathered from subject matter experts (SMEs) with input from system planners about conditions they expect to be true about their electric systems in the future. Users provide data about their organization’s tolerance for risk; the value they place on avoiding the consequences of different cyber events; and conditions that they expect to be true on their systems at some point in the future. The SMEs provide baseline probabilities for different cyber events; the probability that an event will be low-, moderate-, or high-impact; and the amount by which user-identified conditions on their systems will change the likelihood of the cyber events. The application takes both the user and SME input and performs a series of Monte Carlo simulations to arrive at a quantification of risk.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1982

Radar prediction of absolute rain fade distributions for earth-satellite paths and general methods for extrapolation of fade statistics to other locations

The first absolute rain fade distribution method described establishes absolute fade statistics at a given site by means of a sampled radar data base. The second method extrapolates absolute fade statistics from one location to another, given simultaneously measured fade and rain rate statistics at the former. Both methods employ similar conditional fade statistic concepts and long term rain rate distributions. Probability deviations in the 2-19% range, with an 11% average, were obtained upon comparison of measured and predicted levels at given attenuations. The extrapolation of fade distributions to other locations at 28 GHz showed very good agreement with measured data at three sites located in the continental temperate region.

Goldhirsh, J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The experimental cascade curves of EAS at E sub 0 10(17) eV obtained by the method of detection of Cherenkov pulse shape

The individual cascade curves of EAS with E sub 0 10 to the 17th power eV/I to 3/ were studied by detection of EAS Cherenkov light pulses. The scintillators located at the center of the Yakutsk EAS array within a 500-m radius circle were used to select the showers and to determine the main EAS parameters. The individual cascade curves N(t) were obtained using the EAS Cherenkov light pulses satisfying the following requirements: (1) the signal-to-noise ratio fm/delta sub n 15, (2) the EAS axis-detector distance tau sub 350 m, (3) the zenith angle theta 30 deg, (4) the probability for EAS to be detected by scintillators W 0.8. Condition (1) arises from the desire to reduce the amplitude distortion of Cherenkov pulses due to noise and determines the range of EAS sizes, N(t). The resolution times of the Cherenkov pulse shape detectors are tau sub 0 approx. 23 ns which results in distortion of a pulse during the process of the detection. The distortion of pulses due to the finiteness of tau sub 0 value was estimated. It is shown that the rise time of pulse becomes greater as tau sub 0.5/tau sub 0 ratio decreases.

Fomin, Y. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

A generalization of the near-optimum binary coherent state receiver concept

The structure of a maximum a posteriori decoder is derived for binary optical fields processed according to Kennedy's near-optimum scheme, but operating in the presence of random optical phase-error and interfering background fields. An exact expression is found for the error probability, and examples to illustrate decoder performance under various operating conditions of interest are provided.

Vilnrotter, V. A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Mathematical algorithms for approximate reasoning

Most state of the art expert system environments contain a single and often ad hoc strategy for approximate reasoning. Some environments provide facilities to program the approximate reasoning algorithms. However, the next generation of expert systems should have an environment which contain a choice of several mathematical algorithms for approximate reasoning. To meet the need for validatable and verifiable coding, the expert system environment must no longer depend upon ad hoc reasoning techniques but instead must include mathematically rigorous techniques for approximate reasoning. Popular approximate reasoning techniques are reviewed, including: certainty factors, belief measures, Bayesian probabilities, fuzzy logic, and Shafer-Dempster techniques for reasoning. A group of mathematically rigorous algorithms for approximate reasoning are focused on that could form the basis of a next generation expert system environment. These algorithms are based upon the axioms of set theory and probability theory. To separate these algorithms for approximate reasoning various conditions of mutual exclusivity and independence are imposed upon the assertions. Approximate reasoning algorithms presented include: reasoning with statistically independent assertions, reasoning with mutually exclusive assertions, reasoning with assertions that exhibit minimum overlay within the state space, reasoning with assertions that exhibit maximum overlay within the state space (i.e. fuzzy logic), pessimistic reasoning (i.e. worst case analysis), optimistic reasoning (i.e. best case analysis), and reasoning with assertions with absolutely no knowledge of the possible dependency among the assertions. A robust environment for expert system construction should include the two modes of inference: modus ponens and modus tollens. Modus ponens inference is based upon reasoning towards the conclusion in a statement of logical implication, whereas modus tollens inference is based upon reasoning away from the conclusion. These algorithms allow one to reason accurately with uncertain data. The above environment can replicate state-f-the-art expert system environments which provides a continuity between the current expert systems which cannot be validated or verified and future expert systems which should be both validated and verified

Murphy, John H.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Diffusion and infrared properties of molecules in ice mantles

Within dense molecular clouds the formation of frozen icy mantles on interstellar dust grains is thought to be the result of various growth conditions. The molecules, which make up the ice mantles are probably completely mixed. To study the physical properties of such ice mixtures the experiments were performed on the evaporation processes and on the spectroscopic properties of CO, CO2, and CH4 in water rich ices. The decrease in concentration of volatile molecules in ice samples deposited at 10 K and subsequently heated is found to occur essentially in two steps. The first one, corresponding to an evaporation of part of the volatile molecules, starts at about 25 K for CO, 32 K for CH4, and 70 K for CO2. During the crystallization of H2O ice at temperatures greater than 120 K a second evaporation occurs leading to the complete disappearance of the volatile molecules in the solid phase. The main astrophysical implications of the diffusion and spectroscopic behaviors are presented. The possible effects of a heating source on the fraction of volatile molecules, such as CO trapped in grain mantles, are discussed.

Schmitt, Bernard↗
NASA NTRS1992

PDF turbulence modeling and DNS

The problem of time discontinuity (or jump condition) in the coalescence/dispersion (C/D) mixing model is addressed in probability density function (pdf). A C/D mixing model continuous in time is introduced. With the continuous mixing model, the process of chemical reaction can be fully coupled with mixing. In the case of homogeneous turbulence decay, the new model predicts a pdf very close to a Gaussian distribution, with finite higher moments also close to that of a Gaussian distribution. Results from the continuous mixing model are compared with both experimental data and numerical results from conventional C/D models. The effect of Coriolis forces on compressible homogeneous turbulence is studied using direct numerical simulation (DNS). The numerical method used in this study is an eight order compact difference scheme. Contrary to the conclusions reached by previous DNS studies on incompressible isotropic turbulence, the present results show that the Coriolis force increases the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy, and that anisotropy develops as the Coriolis force increases. The Taylor-Proudman theory does apply since the derivatives in the direction of the rotation axis vanishes rapidly. A closer analysis reveals that the dissipation rate of the incompressible component of the turbulent kinetic energy indeed decreases with a higher rotation rate, consistent with incompressible flow simulations (Bardina), while the dissipation rate of the compressible part increases; the net gain is positive. Inertial waves are observed in the simulation results.

Hsu, A. T.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The evolution of the lithium abundances of solar-type stars. III - The Pleiades

New measurements of lithium in more than 100 Pleiades F, G, and K dwarfs are reported. Abundances are determined from spectrum synthesis fits to the data as well as from use of new covers of growth from the Li 6708-A feature. It is argued that most Late-F and early-G dwarfs in the Pleiades are consistent with the tight N(Li) vs mass relation seen in the Hyades in the same mass range. Most Li-rich stars have abundances at or near the primordial level for Population I, and none exceed that level by a significant amount. At any given color the stars that rotate fast have the most Li and have the strongest chromospheric activity. Ways in which an apparent spread in N(Li) could arise from an intrinsically tight n(Li)-mass relation are considered, and it is concluded that the spread is probably real and is not an artifact of line formation conditions or inhomogeneous atmospheres on the stars.

Soderblom, David R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Ocean color and atmospheric dimethyl sulfide: On their mesoscale variability

The mesoscale variability of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and ocean color is explored to determine the feasibility of a predictive relationship. During NASA's Global Tropospheric Experiment/Chemical Instrumentation Test and Evaluation (GTE/CITE 3), simultaneous shipboard and aircraft studies were carried out in the North Atlantic, followed by aircraft studies in the South Atlantic. Surface concentrations of chlorophyll alpha were measured with an airborne spectroradiometer, the Ocean Data Acquisition System (ODAS), with simultaneous determinations of tropospheric DMS. Shipboard measurements of DMS in air and water as well as in situ chlorophyll alpha were taken in the North Atlantic. No relation was observed between shipboard aquatic DMS and chlorophyll alpha or primary productivity. Higher levels of aqueous DMS were not always reflected by atmospheric DMS, although shipboard and aircraft measurements of atmospheric DMS agreed very well. A significant relationship between atmospheric DMS and ocean color was seen once at low altitudes in both the North and South Atlantic only under clean air conditions. Atmospheric DMS levels during the North Atlantic experiment were probably lowered by the presence of mostly polluted air masses in the study area and were, overall, probably not representative of the in situ sea-to-air flux of DMS. Changes in concentration of aircraft-sensed chlorophyllous pigments were not reflected by atmospheric DMS. If a predictive algorithm is to be found, phytoplankton blooms should probably be the first place to study an ocean color-DMS relationship.

Matrai, Patricia A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Automation of Command and Data Entry in a Glovebox Work Volume: An Evaluation of Data Entry Devices

The present study was designed to examine the human-computer interface for data entry while performing experimental procedures within a glovebox work volume in order to make a recommendation to the Space Station Biological Research Project for a data entry system to be used within the Life Sciences Glovebox. Test subjects entered data using either a manual keypad, similar to a standard computer numerical keypad located within the glovebox work volume, or a voice input system using a speech recognition program with a microphone headset. Numerical input and commands were programmed in an identical manner between the two systems. With both electronic systems, a small trackball was available within the work volume for cursor control. Data, such as sample vial identification numbers, sample tissue weights, and health check parameters of the specimen, were entered directly into procedures that were electronically displayed on a video monitor within the glovebox. A pen and paper system with a 'flip-chart' format for procedure display, similar to that currently in use on the Space Shuttle, was used as a baseline data entry condition. Procedures were performed by a single operator; eight test subjects were used in the study. The electronic systems were tested under both a 'nominal' or 'anomalous' condition. The anomalous condition was introduced into the experimental procedure to increase the probability of finding limitations or problems with human interactions with the electronic systems. Each subject performed five test runs during a test day: two procedures each with voice and keypad, one with and one without anomalies, and one pen and paper procedure. The data collected were both quantitative (times, errors) and qualitative (subjective ratings of the subjects).

Steele, Marianne K.↗
NASA NTRS1955

Ditching Investigation of a 1/12-Scale Model of the Douglas F3D-2 Airplane, TED No. NACA DE 381

An investigation of a 1/12- scale dynamically similar model of the Douglas F3D-2 airplane was made in calm water to observe the ditching behavior and to determine the safest procedure for making an emergency water landing. Various conditions of damage were simulated to determine the behavior which probably would occur in a full-scale ditching. The behavior of the model was determined from motion-picture records, time- history acceleration records, and visual observations. It was concluded that the airplane should be ditched at a medium high attitude of about 8 degrees with the landing flaps down 40 degrees. In calm water the airplane will probably make a smooth run of about 550 feet and will have a maximum longitudinal deceleration of about 3g. The fuselage bottom will probably be damaged enough to allow the fuselage to fill with water very rapidly.

Fisher, Lloyd J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Effect of Surge Current Testing on Reliability of Solid Tantalum Capacitors

Tantalum capacitors manufactured per military specifications are established reliability components and have less than 0.001% of failures per 1000 hours for grades D or S, thus positioning these parts among electronic components with the highest reliability characteristics. Still, failures of tantalum capacitors do happen and when it occurs it might have catastrophic consequences for the system. To reduce this risk, further development of a screening and qualification system with special attention to the possible deficiencies in the existing procedures is necessary. The purpose of this work is evaluation of the effect of surge current stress testing on reliability of the parts at both steady-state and multiple surge current stress conditions. In order to reveal possible degradation and precipitate more failures, various part types were tested and stressed in the range of voltage and temperature conditions exceeding the specified limits. A model to estimate the probability of post-surge current testing-screening failures and measures to improve the effectiveness of the screening process has been suggested.

Teverovsky, Alexander↗
NASA NTRS1949

Ditching Investigation of a 1/18-Scale Model of the North American B-45 Airplane

An investigation of a 1/18-scale dynamically similar model of the North American B-45 airplane was made to observe the ditching behavior and determine the proper landing technique to be used in an emergency water landing. Various conditions of damage were simulated to determine the behavior which probably would occur in a full-scale ditching. The behavior of the model was determined from high-speed motion-picture records, time-history acceleration records, and visual observations. It was concluded that the airplane should be ditched at the maximum nose-high attitude with the landing flaps full down for minimum landing speed. During the ditching, the nose-wheel and bomb-bay doors probably will be torn away and the rear of the fuselage flooded. A violent dive will very likely occur. Longitudinal decelerations of approximately 5g and vertical accelerations of approximately -6g (including gravity) will be experienced near the pilots' compartment. Ditching braces installed in the bomb bay will tend to improve the behavior slightly but will be torn away along with the bomb-bay doors. A hydroflap installed ahead of the nose-wheel doors will eliminate the dive and failure of the nose-wheel doors, and substantially reduce the motions and accelerations.

Fisher, Lloyd J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Environmental Variation and Cohort Effects in an Antarctic Predator

Understanding the potential influence of environmental variation experienced by animals during early stages of development on their subsequent demographic performance can contribute to our understanding of population processes and aid in predicting impacts of global climate change on ecosystem functioning. Using data from 4,178 tagged female Weddell seal pups born into 20 different cohorts, and 30 years of observations of the tagged seals, we evaluated the hypothesis that environmental conditions experienced by young seals, either indirectly through maternal effects and/or directly during the initial period of juvenile nutritional independence, have long-term effects on individual demographic performance. We documented an approximately 3-fold difference in the proportion of each cohort that returned to the pupping colonies and produced a pup within the first 10 years after birth. We found only weak evidence for a correlation between annual environmental conditions during the juvenile-independence period and cohort recruitment probability. Instead, the data strongly supported an association between cohort recruitment probability and the regional extent of sea ice experienced by the mother during the winter the pup was in utero. We suggest that inter-annual variation in winter sea-ice extent influences the foraging success of pregnant seals by moderating the regional abundance of competing predators that cannot occupy areas of consolidated sea ice, and by directly influencing the abundance of mid-trophic prey species that are sea-ice obligates. We hypothesize that this environmentally-induced variation in maternal nutrition dictates the extent of maternal energetic investment in offspring, resulting in cohort variation in mean size of pups at weaning which, in turn, contributes to an individual?s phenotype and its ultimate fitness. These linkages between sea ice and trophic dynamics, combined with demonstrated and predicted changes in the duration and extent of sea ice associated with climate change, suggest significant alterations in Antarctic marine ecosystems in the future.

Garrott, Robert A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

ACCELERATED DEPLOYMENT OF NOVEL MATERIALS BASED ON RELIABILITY INTEGRITY MANAGEMENT USING CUMULATIVE DAMAGE MODELING

There is currently no widely agreed, detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. This paper discusses a framework for solving this problem that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev. 0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the 2019 ASME Code. The proposed framework is meant to support development of a licensing case by addressing certain remaining technical challenges. The framework discussed here is compatible with the Licensing Modernization Project, but applying it in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice, if not the state of the art. The RIM approach calls for applicants to (a) allocate reliability targets to plant structures, systems, and components (SSCs), (b) show that they are able to relate the currently observed physical condition of each SSC in the program to its failure probability well enough to determine whether the target reliability allocations are being satisfied, allowing for uncertainty related to the novelty of the materials/designs/operating environments, and (c) be able to demonstrate that the proposed program of surveillances will reliably detect unacceptable degradation of an SSC before SSC failure occurs. A modeling approach potentially applicable to item (b), based on cumulative damage modeling rather than failure rates, is briefly illustrated.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗