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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic Multi-Hazard Performance Assessment of Concrete Structures in Nuclear Installations

Concrete structures in nuclear installations are subject to time-dependent degradation mechanisms that can deteriorate their physical and mechanical properties, potentially exacerbating the risk of structural failure under external forces such as a seismic event. Previous research has extensively investigated the seismic response of nuclear concrete structures and the associated risk, as well as their effect on structural components safety margins. However, substantial work is still necessary to incorporate concrete aging effects into such evaluations. In fact, most models in the literature assume pristine concrete conditions and do not account for the impact of aging on the structural components’ fragility curves. This work identifies relevant time-dependent degradation mechanisms and provides simplified models to predict the the evolution of key material properties based on data from the literature. Namely, this work focuses on the aging effects of corrosion, alkali–silica reaction (ASR), and irradiation on reinforced concrete within US Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities and nuclear power plants (NPP) structures. Furthermore, degradation models based on literature data are presented that define the relationship between probabilistic material properties and the concrete’s age. In this work, sampled material properties served as input for a simplified finite element model (FEM) of a critical nuclear structural system, with the output of the FEM being the seismic response for a given ground motion. The results of the FEM were then used within a probabilistic performance assessment with a statistically significant number of samples. The research presented herein addresses the detrimental effects of hazards caused by natural phenomena on deteriorated concrete elements of nuclear installations. This work directly benefits the safety analysis performed on US DOE/ National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) nuclear facilities located in areas prone to seismic activity. The results presented herein could aid in the improvement of DOE-STD-1020, the DOE Standard that addresses seismic risk analysis and capacity evaluation in DOE facilities. DOE-STD-1020 refers to the requirements in American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 4-98, now superseded by ASCE 4-16, that shall be met in performing dynamic response analyses and generating in-structure response spectra, provided that such requirements are consistent with the requirements of ASCE/Structural Engineering Institute (SEI) 43-05. Moreover, the results presented herein could also aid in the updating of section C3.1.1. of ASCE 4-16 to account for the effects of aging on the stiffness of reinforced elements and American Concrete Institute (ACI) 349.3R-18, “Report on Evaluation and Repair of Existing Nuclear Safety-Related Concrete Structures.” Ultimately, this work can assist the risk assessment of potential lifetime extension of the existing US commercial nuclear fleet (light water reactors) and the safety analysis of the emerging advanced nuclear reactors. The proposed proof-of-concept methodology employs open-source DOE computational tools and is transferable to commercial software commonly used by engineering firms.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Physics Representation of Deep Learning Models in Environmental Applications

Deep learning (DL) models have been popular in earth and environmental modeling and analysis, which exhibit huge potential in capturing and reconstructing the non-linearity of relevant environmental processes. They are extensively used as analytical tools or emulators for multiple domains (atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and biogeochemistry). Despite their success, their internal working mechanism remains largely unknown. Such a lack of knowledge hinders the identification of physically consistent models that are fully adaptive to non-stationary climate, as well as the development of physics-informed machine learning such as physics-informed neural network (PINN). To establish preliminary knowledge and framework of such physics representation evaluation, this project focuses on an improved understanding of DL models in the environmental applications. DL models are increasingly applied to environmental modeling and prediction. However, they have been evaluated mostly from a performance perspective, and there is a gap in understanding how they represent the known physics internally. Such knowledge is especially critical when applying DL models under climate change conditions, where new inputs are likely outside the ranges of the training datasets. In this project, we reveal how the known physical processes are represented within DL models from both statistical and mechanistic perspectives. Leveraging the traditional model evaluations that focus more on the accuracies of predictions, we establish a framework that examines both the accuracy and physics representation of DL models. This analysis framework can identify DL models that make the correct predictions based on correct physics, thus enhancing the existing explainable artificial intelligence (explainable-AI) portfolio. It lays a foundation for developing novel metrics to evaluate the emerging DL models in environmental applications. This knowledge also informs the development of physics-informed DL models by revealing the direct connections between the known physical processes and specific model components or structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

COMPUTATIONAL MODELING OF IGNITION AND PREMIXED FLAME PROPAGATION INITIATED BY A PRE-CHAMBER TURBULENT JET

Addressing the pressing need for reduced carbon emissions, Turbulent Jet Ignition (TJI) emerges as a promising technology for ultra-lean combustion, offering enhanced thermal efficiencies and minimized cyclic variability in spark-ignited engines. To facilitate rapid testing and integration of this technology, a robust computational modeling framework is crucial. This study delves into the predictive capabilities of computational models for main-chamber ignition and premixed flame propagation using a single-cycle TJI rig measured by Biswas et al. (Applied Thermal Engineering, vol 106, 2016). Employing an open-source compressible flow simulation solver with Large Eddy Simulation (LES) for turbulence modeling, the investigation integrates the conventional Laminar Finite Rate Chemistry (LFRC) model alongside the transported Probability Density Method (PDF) for turbulence-chemistry interaction. A fully-consistent Eulerian Monte-Carlo Fields (EMCF) method is utilized to approximate the transported PDF, while Interaction by Exchange with Mean is employed to close micro-mixing terms in stochastic differential equations. A reduced chemical reaction mechanism with 21 species and 84 reactions (DRM-19) is used for solving chemical kinetics, and a double Gaussian energy deposition model is used to approximate the spark ignition in the pre-chamber. An unstructured O-grid mesh with 0.3 million cells in the prechamber and 1 million cells in the main chamber is employed. Results are divided into two phases: pre-chamber initialization and full TJI simulations. Validation of the predicted pre-chamber flame propagation and the lean ignition in the main-chamber is carried out by using available experimental data. Under quiescent conditions, both the LFRC and transported PDF methods largely underestimate the flame speed and subsequent pressure growth in the pre-chamber. A linear momentum forcing technique is applied to investigate the impact of initial turbulence in the pre-chamber, demonstrating a notable influence on flame propagation. Fine-tuning of the forcing coefficient reproduces the sudden pressure growth observed in the experiment. The experimentally validated pre-chamber simulation serves as the initial condition for the full TJI simulations. It is found that the LFRC model fails to predict lean-ignition in the main-chamber, resulting in a misfiring event. Incorporation of turbulence-chemistry interaction using the transported PDF method substantially improves the prediction of the ignition event in the main-chamber, achieving fair qualitative agreement and quantitative validation of combustion parameters within ±10% of the reported experimental data. The rich simulation results consisting of a full set of statistical description of the thermo-chemical states enable us to gain deep insights into the ignition mechanisms in the main chamber, which is limited when done experimentally. A novel dual ignition phenomenon is revealed in the TJI rig for the first time. Initially, a primary ignition kernel is formed at a downstream location which eventually detaches from the main jet. As the jet momentum decreases, a secondary ignition event follows, this time at a more upstream location which eventually combines with the primary ignition kernel to form a single connected flame front. Investigation of these ignition sequences in chemical composition space reveal distinct differences between the two. The primary ignition event in the main-chamber is followed by a large concentration of active radicals from the pre-chamber jet, accelerating the chain-branching steps, characterizing what has been referred to as flame ignition. In contrast, the secondary ignition occurs in the absence of active radicals in the pre-chamber jet, hence characterized as jet ignition. Further analysis of the effect of pre-chamber jet characteristics on lean ignition in the main-chamber is conducted by setting up cases with different initial pressure ratios (por) between the two chambers, a non-dimensional parameter, ranging from 1.2 to 3.2. As the initial pressure ratio increases, jet momentum increases, with dual ignition observed in cases above por= 2.2. Case with por= 3.2 lead to misfiring. The effect of ignition sequence on global combustion characteristics of TJI is analyzed. Dual ignition events lead to non-monotonicity in combustion characteristics such as global reaction progress variable, flame penetration, and global heat release rate. In dual ignition events, although the rate of fuel consumption and global heat release rate is initially lower, the secondary ignition leads to a sudden increase in flame surface area, resulting in a sudden jump and promoting the overall performance of the TJI system.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

NanoPSD: A software for automatic detection of Nano-Particle Shape Distribution in electron microscopy images

Accurate quantification of the size and morphology of nanoparticles from electron microscopy (EM) images is essential to understand growth mechanisms, surface reactivity, and functional behavior in nanoscale materials. Manual analysis remains slow, subjective, and difficult to reproduce in large datasets. We introduce NanoPSD (Nano-Particle Shape Distribution), an open-source and fully automated framework for quantitative particle detection and morphology analysis from EM images. NanoPSD integrates adaptive contrast enhancement, polarity-agnostic scale-bar detection, Optical Character Recognition (OCR)-based calibration, and classical segmentation via Otsu thresholding with morphological refinement. Particle contours are used to extract geometric descriptors, including equivalent circular diameter, aspect ratio, circularity, and solidity, enabling automated classification into spherical, rod-like, and aggregate morphologies. The framework supports both single-image and batch processing, generating publication-quality visualizations, LaTeX-ready tables, and structured comma-separated values (CSV) datasets. As a demonstration, we applied NanoPSD to plasma-synthesized nanoparticle samples diagnosed via transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The code produced statistically robust size and morphology distributions spanning a few to tens of nanometers with minimal user supervision. The pipeline demonstrates high reproducibility and scalability, processing large image collections with consistent calibration and output formatting. Its modular design enables seamless integration of future deep-learning-based segmentation models, providing a pathway toward intelligent, data-driven electron microscopy analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2013

Revisiting Scaling Relations for Giant Radio Halos in Galaxy Clusters

Many galaxy clusters host megaparsec-scale radio halos, generated by ultrarelativistic electrons in the magnetized intracluster medium. Correlations between the synchrotron power of radio halos and the thermal properties of the hosting clusters were established in the last decade, including the connection between the presence of a halo and cluster mergers. The X-ray luminosity and redshift-limited Extended GMRT Radio Halo Survey provides a rich and unique dataset for statistical studies of the halos. We uniformly analyze the radio and X-ray data for the GMRT cluster sample, and use the new Planck Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) catalog to revisit the correlations between the power of radio halos and the thermal properties of galaxy clusters. We find that the radio power at 1.4 GHz scales with the cluster X-ray (0.1-2.4 keV) luminosity computed within R(sub 500) as P(sub 1.4) approx. L(2.1+/-0.2) - 500). Our bigger and more homogenous sample confirms that the X-ray luminous (L(sub 500) > 5 × 10(exp 44) erg/s)) clusters branch into two populations-radio halos lie on the correlation, while clusters without radio halos have their radio upper limits well below that correlation. This bimodality remains if we excise cool cores from the X-ray luminosities. We also find that P(sub 1.4) scales with the cluster integrated SZ signal within R(sub 500), measured by Planck, as P(sub 1.4) approx. Y(2.05+/-0.28) - 500), in line with previous findings. However, contrary to previous studies that were limited by incompleteness and small sample size, we find that "SZ-luminous" Y(sub 500) > 6×10(exp −5) Mpc(exp 2) clusters show a bimodal behavior for the presence of radio halos, similar to that in the radio-X-ray diagram. Bimodality of both correlations can be traced to clusters dynamics, with radio halos found exclusively in merging clusters. These results confirm the key role of mergers for the origin of giant radio halos, suggesting that they trigger the relativistic particle acceleration.

radiation mechanisms↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-Precision Characterization of Seismicity from the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption

The earthquake swarm accompanying the January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption includes a large number of posteruptive moderate-magnitude seismic events and presents a unique opportunity to use remote monitoring methods to characterize and compare seismic activity with other historical caldera-forming eruptions. We compute improved epicentroid locations, magnitudes, and regional moment tensors of seismic events from this earthquake swarm using regional to teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling. Precise relative locations of 91 seismic events derived from 59,047 intermediate-period Rayleigh- and Love-wave cross-correlation measurements collapse into a small area surrounding the volcano and exhibit a southeastern time-dependent migration. Regional moment tensors and observed waveforms indicate that these events have a similar mechanism and exhibit a strong positive compensated linear vector dipole component. Precise relative magnitudes agree with regional moment tensor moment magnitude ($M_w$) estimates while also showing that event sizes and frequency increase during the days after the eruption followed by a period of several weeks of less frequent seismicity of a similar size. The combined information from visual observation and early geologic models indicate that the observed seismicity may be the result of a complex series of events that occurred after the explosive eruption on 15 January, possibly involving rapid resupply of the magma chamber shortly after the eruption and additional faulting and instability in the following weeks. In addition, we identify and characterize an $M_w$ 4.5 event five days before the paroxysmal explosion on 15 January, indicating that additional seismic events preceding the main eruption could have been identified with improved local monitoring. As a result, our analysis of the HTHH eruption sequence demonstrates the value of potentially utilizing teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling methods to assist in the detailed analysis of remote volcanic eruption sequences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Reliability and Confidence Interval Analysis of a CMC Turbine Stator Vane

High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight, enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling and thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. However, these materials are brittle and show degradation with time at high operating temperatures due to creep as well as cyclic mechanical and thermal loads. In addition, these materials are heterogeneous in their make-up and various factors affect their properties in a specific design environment. Most of these advanced composites involve two- and three-dimensional fiber architectures and require a complex multi-step high temperature processing. Since there are uncertainties associated with each of these in addition to the variability in the constituent material properties, the observed behavior of composite materials exhibits scatter. Traditional material failure analyses employing a deterministic approach, where failure is assumed to occur when some allowable stress level or equivalent stress is exceeded, are not adequate for brittle material component design. Such phenomenological failure theories are reasonably successful when applied to ductile materials such as metals. Analysis of failure in structural components is governed by the observed scatter in strength, stiffness and loading conditions. In such situations, statistical design approaches must be used. Accounting for these phenomena requires a change in philosophy on the design engineer s part that leads to a reduced focus on the use of safety factors in favor of reliability analyses. The reliability approach demands that the design engineer must tolerate a finite risk of unacceptable performance. This risk of unacceptable performance is identified as a component's probability of failure (or alternatively, component reliability). The primary concern of the engineer is minimizing this risk in an economical manner. The methods to accurately determine the service life of an engine component with associated variability have become increasingly difficult. This results, in part, from the complex missions which are now routinely considered during the design process. These missions include large variations of multi-axial stresses and temperatures experienced by critical engine parts. There is a need for a convenient design tool that can accommodate various loading conditions induced by engine operating environments, and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life of a structural component. A probabilistic composite micromechanics technique in combination with woven composite micromechanics, structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Furthermore, input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Since the measured data for the ceramic matrix composite properties is very limited, obtaining a probabilistic distribution with their corresponding parameters is difficult. In case of limited data, confidence bounds are essential to quantify the uncertainty associated with the distribution. Usually 90 and 95% confidence intervals are computed for material properties. Failure properties are then computed with the confidence bounds. Best estimates and the confidence bounds on the best estimate of the cumulative probability function for R-S (strength - stress) are plotted. The methodologies and the results from these analyses will be discussed in the presentation.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Ecosystem age-class dynamics and distribution in the LPJ-wsl v2.0 global ecosystem model

Forest ecosystem processes follow classic responses with age, peaking production around canopy closure and declining thereafter. Although age dynamics might be more dominant in certain regions over others, demographic effects on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) are bound to exist. Yet, explicit representation of ecosystem demography is notably absent in many global ecosystem models. This is concerning because the global community relies on these models to regularly update our collective understanding of the global carbon cycle. This paper aims to present the technical developments of a computationally efficient approach for representing age-class dynamics within a global ecosystem model, the Lund–Potsdam–Jena – Wald, Schnee, Landschaft version 2.0 (LPJ-wsl v2.0) dynamic global vegetation model and to determine if explicit representation of demography influenced ecosystem stocks and fluxes at global scales or at the level of a grid cell. The modeled age classes are initially created by simulated fire and prescribed wood harvesting or abandonment of managed land, otherwise aging naturally until an additional disturbance is simulated or prescribed. In this paper, we show that the age module can capture classic demographic patterns in stem density and tree height compared to inventory data, and that simulated patterns of ecosystem function follow classic responses with age. We also present two scientific applications of the model to assess the modeled age-class distribution over time and to determine the demographic effect on ecosystem fluxes relative to climate. Simulations show that, between 1860 and 2016, zonal age distribution on Earth was driven predominately by fire, causing a 45- to 60-year difference in ages between older boreal (50–90° N) and younger tropical (23° S–23° N) ecosystems. Between simulation years 1860 and 2016, land-use change and land management were responsible for a decrease in zonal age by −6 years in boreal and by −21 years in both temperate (23–50° N) and tropical latitudes, with the anthropogenic effect on zonal age distribution increasing over time. A statistical model helped to reduce LPJ-wsl v2.0 complexity by predicting per-grid-cell annual NPP and Rh fluxes by three terms: precipitation, temperature, and age class; at global scales, R2 was between 0.95 and 0.98. As determined by the statistical model, the demographic effect on ecosystem function was often less than 0.10 kg C/sq. myr but as high as 0.60 kg C/sq. myr where the effect was greatest. In the eastern forests of North America, the simulated demographic effect was of similar magnitude, or greater than, the effects of climate; simulated demographic effects were similarly important in large regions of every vegetated continent. Simulated spatial datasets are provided for global ecosystem ages and the estimated coefficients for effects of precipitation, temperature and demography on ecosystem function. The discussion focuses on our finding of an increasing role of demography in the global carbon cycle, the effect of demography on relaxation times (resilience) following a disturbance event and its implications at global scales, and a finding of a 40 Pg C increase in biomass turnover when including age dynamics at global scales. Whereas time is the only mechanism that increases ecosystem age, any additional disturbance not explicitly modeled will decrease age. The LPJ-wsl v2.0 age module represents another step forward towards understanding the role of demography in global ecosystems.

LPJ-wsl↗
DOE OSTI2024

Convergent Concordant Mode Approach for Molecular Vibrations: CMA-2

The concordant mode approach (CMA) is a promising new scheme for dramatically increasing the system size and level of theory achievable in quantum chemical computations of molecular vibrational frequencies. Here, we achieve advances in the CMA hierarchy by computations targeting CCSD(T)/cc-pVTZ (coupled cluster singles and doubles with perturbative triples using a correlation-consistent polarized-valence triple-ζ basis set) benchmarks within the G2 molecular test set, executing a statistical analysis for 1501 frequencies from 111 compounds and then separately solving the refractory case of pyridine. First, MP2/cc-pVTZ (second-order Møller–Plesset perturbation theory with the same basis set) proves to be an excellent and preferred choice for generating the underlying (Level B) normal modes of the CMA scheme. Utilizing this Level B within the CMA-0A method reproduces the 1501 benchmark frequencies with a mean absolute error (MAE) of only 0.11 cm –1 and an attendant standard deviation of 0.49 cm –1 . Second, a convergent CMA-2 method is constituted that allows efficient computation of higher level (Level A) frequencies to any reasonable accuracy threshold by using only Hartree–Fock (HF) and MP2 or density functional theory (DFT) data to generate ξ parameters, which select the sparse off-diagonal force field elements for explicit evaluation at Level A. When Level B = MP2/cc-pVTZ, a cutoff of ξ = 0.02 provides an average maximum absolute error per molecule of only 0.17 cm –1 by incurring merely a 33% increase in average cost over CMA-0A. This CMA-2 method also eradicates the 4 problematic CMA-0A outliers of pyridine with even less effort (ξ = 0.04, 22% increase). Finally, the newly developed CMA procedures are shown to be highly successful when applied to 1-(1H-pyrrol-3-yl)ethanol, a new test molecule with diverse types of vibration.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2003

Ising model of cardiac thin filament activation with nearest-neighbor cooperative interactions

We have developed a model of cardiac thin filament activation using an Ising model approach from equilibrium statistical physics. This model explicitly represents nearest-neighbor interactions between 26 troponin/tropomyosin units along a one-dimensional array that represents the cardiac thin filament. With transition rates chosen to match experimental data, the results show that the resulting force-pCa (F-pCa) relations are similar to Hill functions with asymmetries, as seen in experimental data. Specifically, Hill plots showing (log(F/(1-F)) vs. log [Ca]) reveal a steeper slope below the half activation point (Ca(50)) compared with above. Parameter variation studies show interplay of parameters that affect the apparent cooperativity and asymmetry in the F-pCa relations. The model also predicts that Ca binding is uncooperative for low [Ca], becomes steeper near Ca(50), and becomes uncooperative again at higher [Ca]. The steepness near Ca(50) mirrors the steep F-pCa as a result of thermodynamic considerations. The model also predicts that the correlation between troponin/tropomyosin units along the one-dimensional array quickly decays at high and low [Ca], but near Ca(50), high correlation occurs across the whole array. This work provides a simple model that can account for the steepness and shape of F-pCa relations that other models fail to reproduce.

Evaluation Studies↗
DOE OSTI2020

First-principles calculation of the configurational energy density of states for a solid-state ion conductor with a variant of the Wang and Landau algorithm

In this work, a variant of the Wang and Landau algorithm for calculation of the configurational energy density of states is proposed. The algorithm was developed for the purpose of using first-principles simulations, such as density functional theory, to calculate the partition function of disordered sublattices in crystal materials. The expensive calculations of first-principles methods make a parallel algorithm necessary for a practical computation of the configurational energy density of states within a supercell approximation of a solid-state material. The algorithm developed in this work is tested with the two-dimensional (2d) Ising model to bench mark the algorithm and to help provide insight for implementation to a materials science application. Tests with the 2d Ising model revealed that the algorithm has good performance compared to the original Wang and Landau algorithm and the 1/$\textit{t}$ algorithm, in particular the short iteration performance. Further, a proof of convergence is presented within an adiabatic assumption, and the analysis is able to correctly predict the time dependence of the modification factor to the density of states. The algorithm was then applied to the lithium and lanthanum sublattice of the solid-state lithium ion conductor Li 0.5 La 0.5 TiO 3 . This was done to help understand the disordered nature of the lithium and lanthanum. The results find, overall, that the algorithm performs very well for the 2d Ising model and that the results for Li 0.5 La 0.5 TiO 3 are consistent with experiment while providing additional insight into the lithium and lanthanum ordering in the material. The primary result is that the lithium and lanthanum become more mixed between layers along the c axis for increasing temperature. In part, the simulation of the disordered Li 0.5 La 0.5 TiO 3 system serves as a benchmark for what size systems are currently and in the near future practical to calculate with density functional theory methods.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning to discover mineral trapping signatures due to CO 2 injection

Mineral trapping is pursued as a geological CO 2 sequestration (GCS) mechanism because it permanently stores CO 2 in solid phases or minerals. However, CO 2 mineral-trapping mechanisms are poorly understood due to (1) lack of sufficient field and laboratory data characterizing these complex processes, and (2) challenges to develop site-specific reactive-transport models coupling fluid flow and geochemical reactions occurring at various temporal (from milliseconds to years) and spatial (from pore (millimeters) to field (kilometers)) scales. Reactive transport with additional complexities such as heterogeneity can make the simulation outputs even more difficult to interpret because of complex nonlinearity and multi-scale interdependencies. Furthermore, the values of model outputs such as concentrations can vary by several orders of magnitude, making it harder to correlate and characterize the impact of the variables via traditional data interpretation techniques such as exploratory data analyses. Recently, machine learning (ML) has shown promise in feature discovery and in highlighting hidden mechanisms that cannot be obtained by existing data-analytics and statistical methods. In this study, we applied an unsupervised ML approach, non-negative matrix factorization with custom -means clustering (NMF) to the data generated by reactive-transport simulations of GCS. The reactive-transport data consisted of 19 attributes, including four physio-chemical variables (pH, porosity, aqueous CO 2 , and sequestered CO 2 ), six chemical species (K + , Na + , HCO, Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , Fe 2+ ), and four carbonate minerals (calcite, dolomite, siderite, and ankerite), a feldspar mineral (albite), and four clay minerals (illite, clinochlore, kaolinite, and smectite) over a period of 200 years of simulation time. Furthermore, the simulation data used was for Morrow B sandstone at the Farnsworth hydrocarbon unit in Texas. Data are sampled at two locations within the model domain: (1) at the injection well and (2) 200 m west of the injection well. The injection was performed for a period of 10 years. Using NMF, we estimated the temporal interdependencies among the 19 attributes over a span of 200 years. We found that NMF was able to identify four reaction stages and their dominant attributes; these cannot be directly discerned through traditional visualization (e.g., line plots, Pareto analysis, Glyph-based visualization methods) or exploratory data analysis tools of the simulation data. The four stages were: reactions in the injection phase followed by short-, mid-, and long-term reactions. The NMF analysis also revealed that 10 among the 19 attributes are dominant. These dominant attributes for mineral trapping include calcite, dolomite at injection well, siderite at 200 m away from the injection well, clinochlore, kaolinite, Na + , K + , Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , pH, and aqeuous CO 2 . Finally, at late times (65–200 years), our results showed that calcite plays a major role in mineral trapping with insignificant contribution from siderite, ankerite, and clay minerals. These findings make the proposed unsupervised ML-model attractive for reactive-transport sensing towards real-time GCS monitoring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Verification, Validation, and Calibration Through a Causal Lens

While typical validation and verification approaches focus on identifying the associations between data elements using statistical and machine learning methods, the novel methods in this paper focus instead on identifying causal relationships between data elements. Statistical and machine-learning-based approaches are strictly data-driven, meaning that they provide quantitative comparison measures between data sets without explicitly considering the hypotheses behind them. This can lead to the erroneous conclusion that, if two data sets are close enough, the models that generated them are similar. In addition, when experimental and simulated data differ to an extent that fails to meet the acceptance criteria, calibration techniques are used to tweak simulation model parameters to reduce the gap between the two types of data. This produces the false expectation that a simulation model will match reality. The methods presented in this paper move away from these strictly data-driven methods for validation and calibration toward more robust, model-driven methods based on causal inference. Causal inference aims to identify the possible mechanisms that might have generated data. Thus, this analysis targets the prediction of the effects when one (or more) of the identified mechanisms are altered. There are many approaches to identify, quantify, and illustrate causal relationships. For the scope of this paper, directed graphs are employed as causal models. If the directed graph lacks cycles, it is known as a directed acyclic graph. A node in such a graph represents an observed data element while a directed edge connecting two nodes represents a causal relationship between two variables. The developed causal methods are designed to extract causal models from simulation models and experimental data. Causal models capture the causal relationships between data elements (e.g., simulated and experimental data). In this context, validation and verification are performed by comparing causal models. The proposed approach does not only inform system analysts on how a simulation model matches real-world data, but also identifies elements of the simulation model that should be revised when discrepancies between simulation and experimental data are observed. Through these causal methods, analysts can identify the portion of the model equation(s) that are behind an edge connecting two variables. Hence, once the structural differences between causal models have been determined, model calibration can occur by changing only those model parameters that impact the identified causal relationships.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

VALIDATION, VERIFICATION, AND CALIBRATION THROUGH A CAUSAL LENS

This paper presents an alternative method based on causal inference to perform validation, verification, and calibration of simulation models. While classical validation and verification approaches focus on the identification of the associations between data elements using statistical and machine learning methods, the novel methods in this paper focus instead on the identification of causal relationships between data elements. Statistical and machine learning-based approaches are strictly data-driven, meaning that they provide quantitative comparison measures between datasets without explicitly considering the hypotheses behind them. This can lead to the erroneous conclusion that, if two data sets are close enough, then the models that generated them are similar. In addition, when experimental and simulated data differ to an extent that fails to meet the acceptance criteria, calibration techniques are used to tweak simulation model parameters to reduce the gap between the two types of data. This produces the false expectation that a simulation model will match reality. The methods presented in this paper move away from these strictly data-driven methods for validation and calibration toward more robust, model-driven methods based on causal inference. Causal inference aims to identify the possible mechanisms that might have generated data. Thus, this analysis targets the prediction of the effects when one (or more) of the identified mechanisms are altered. There are many approaches to identify, quantify and illustrate causal relationships. For the scope of this paper, directed graphs are employed as causal models. If the directed graph lacks cycles it is known as a directed acyclic graph (DAG). A node in such a graph represents an observed data element while a directed edge connecting two nodes represents a causal relationship between two variables. The developed causal methods are designed to extract causal models from simulation models and from experimental data. Causal models capture the causal relationships between data elements (e.g., simulated and experimental data). In this context, validation and verification are performed by comparing causal models. The proposed approach does not only inform system analysts on how a simulation model matches real-world data, but also identifies elements of the simulation model that should be revised when discrepancies between simulation and experimental data are observed. Through these causal methods, analysts have a means to identify the portion of the model equation(s) that are behind an edge connecting two variables. Hence, once the structural differences between causal models have been determined, model calibration can occur by changing only those model parameters that impact the identified causal relationships.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Disentangling the Black Hole Mass Spectrum with Photometric Microlensing Surveys

Abstract From the formation mechanisms of stars and compact objects to nuclear physics, modern astronomy frequently leverages surveys to understand populations of objects to answer fundamental questions. The population of dark and isolated compact objects in the Galaxy contains critical information related to many of these topics, but is only practically accessible via gravitational microlensing. However, photometric microlensing observables are degenerate for different types of lenses, and one can seldom classify an event as involving either a compact object or stellar lens on its own. To address this difficulty, we apply a Bayesian framework that treats lens type probabilistically and jointly with a lens population model. This method allows lens population characteristics to be inferred despite intrinsic uncertainty in the lens class of any single event. We investigate this method’s effectiveness on a simulated ground-based photometric survey in the context of characterizing a hypothetical population of primordial black holes (PBHs) with an average mass of 30 M ⊙ . On simulated data, our method outperforms current black hole (BH) lens identification pipelines and characterizes different subpopulations of lenses while jointly constraining the PBH contribution to dark matter to ≈25%. Key to robust inference, our method can marginalize over population model uncertainty. We find the lower mass cutoff for stellar origin BHs, a key observable in understanding the BH mass gap, particularly difficult to infer in our simulations. This work lays the foundation for cutting-edge PBH abundance constraints to be extracted from current photometric microlensing surveys.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2005

Analysis of Piezoelectric Structural Sensors with Emergent Computing Techniques

The purpose of this project was to try to interpret the results of some tests that were performed earlier this year and to demonstrate a possible use of emergence in computing to solve IVHM problems. The test data used was collected with piezoelectric sensors to detect mechanical changes in structures. This project team was included of Dr. Doug Ramers and Dr. Abdul Jallob of the Summer Faculty Fellowship Program, Arnaldo Colon-Lopez - a student intern from the University of Puerto Rico of Turabo, and John Lassister and Bob Engberg of the Structural and Dynamics Test Group. The tests were performed by Bob Engberg to compare the performance two types of piezoelectric (piezo) sensors, Pb(Zr(sub 1-1)Ti(sub x))O3, which we will label PZT, and Pb(Zn(sub 1/3)Nb(sub 2/3))O3-PbTiO, which we will label SCP. The tests were conducted under varying temperature and pressure conditions. One set of tests was done by varying water pressure inside an aluminum liner covered with carbon-fiber composite layers (a cylindrical "bottle" with domed ends) and the other by varying temperatures down to cryogenic levels on some specially prepared composite panels. This report discusses the data from the pressure study. The study of the temperature results was not completed in time for this report. The particular sensing done with these piezo sensors is accomplished by the sensor generating an controlled vibration that is transmitted into the structure to which the sensor is attached, and the same sensor then responding to the induced vibration of the structure. There is a relationship between the mechanical impedance of the structure and the resulting electrical impedance produced in the in the piezo sensor. The impedance is also a function of the excitation frequency. Changes in the real part of impendance signature relative to an original reference signature indicate a change in the coupled structure that could be the results of damage or strain. The water pressure tests were conducted by pressurizing the bottle on a test stand, and running sweeps of excitations frequencies for each of the piezo sensors and recording the resulting impedance. The sweeps were limited to 401 points by the available analyzer, and it was decided to perform individual sweeps at five different excitation frequency ranges. The frequency ranges used for the PZTs were different in two of the five ranges from the ranges used for the SCP. The bottles were pressurized to empty (no water), 0psig, 77 psig, 155 psig, 227 psig in nearly uniform increments of about 77psi. One of each of the two types of piezo sensors was fastened on to the bottle surface at two locations: about midway between the ends on cylindrical portion of the bottle and at the very edge of one of the end domes. The data was collected in files by sensor type (2 cases), by location (2 cases), by frequency range (5 cases), and pressure (5cases) to produce 100 data sets of 401 impedances. After familiarization with the piezo sensing technology and obtaining the data, the team developed a set of questions to try to answer regarding the data and made assignments of responsibilities. The next section lists the questions, and the remainder of the report describes the data analysis work performed by Dr. Ramers. This includes a discussion of the data, the approach to answering the question using statistical techniques, the use of an emergent system to investigate the data where statistical techniques were not usable, conclusions regarding the data, and recommendations.

Ramers, Douglas L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mass Transport Limitations and Kinetic Consequences of Corn Stover Deacetylation

Alkaline pretreatment of herbaceous feedstocks such as corn stover prior to mechanical refining and enzymatic saccharification improves downstream sugar yields by removing acetyl moieties from hemicellulose. However, the relationship between transport phenomena and deacetylation kinetics is virtually unknown for such feedstocks and this pretreatment process. Here, we report the development of an experimentally validated reaction–diffusion model for the deacetylation of corn stover. A tissue-specific transport model is used to estimate transport-independent kinetic rate constants for the reactive extraction of acetate, hemicellulose and lignin from corn stover under representative alkaline conditions (5–7 g L -1 NaOH, 10 wt% solids loadings) and at low to mild temperatures (4–70°C) selected to attenuate individual component extraction rates under differential kinetic regimes. The underlying transport model is based on microstructural characteristics of corn stover derived from statistically meaningful geometric particle and pore measurements. These physical descriptors are incorporated into distinct particle models of the three major anatomical fractions (cobs, husks and stalks) alongside an unsorted, aggregate corn stover particle, capturing average Feret lengths of 917–1239 μm and length-to-width aspect ratios of 1.8–2.9 for this highly heterogeneous feedstock. Individual reaction–diffusion models and their resulting particle model ensembles are used to validate and predict anatomically-specific and bulk feedstock performance under kinetic-controlled vs. diffusion-controlled regimes. In general, deacetylation kinetics and mass transfer processes are predicted to compete on similar time and length scales, emphasizing the significance of intraparticle transport phenomena. Critically, we predict that typical corn stover particles as small as ~2.3 mm in length are entirely diffusion-limited for acetate extraction, with experimental effectiveness factors calculated to be 0.50 for such processes. Debilitatingly low effectiveness factors of 0.021–0.054 are uncovered for cobs—implying that intraparticle mass transfer resistances may impair observable kinetic measurements of this anatomical fraction by up to 98%. These first-reported quantitative maps of reaction vs. diffusion control link fundamental insights into corn stover anatomy, biopolymer composition, practical size reduction thresholds and their kinetic consequences. These results offer a guidepost for industrial deacetylation reactor design, scale-up and feedstock selection, further establishing deacetylation as a viable biorefinery pretreatment for the conversion of lignocellulosics into value-added fuels and chemicals.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scaling microstructural processes in the sintering of ionic ceramics

A multi-scale framework, combining a multiphase field formulation and large deformation mechanics, was developed as a stepping stone to perform the data analytics of the microstructural level kinetics of a sintering solid. Relevant microstructural information from this framework, such as grain, stress, and porosity statistics, was scaled up to describe the macroscopic level sintering kinetics. Here, the developed formulation was applied to describe the electric field assisted sintering of Y 2 O 3 . Microstructural inhomogeneities in a multi-granular solid result in the formation of a field of compressive stress networks, which interleave with low compression and weakly tensile regions, defining a scaffolding for sintering concentration regions to develop. A Poisson effect-induced lateral stress network is also naturally self-induced as a result of the mechanical constraints imposed by the sintering apparatus. For long sintering times, localized shear stresses enhancing mass flow along grain boundaries and internal surfaces develop. Three-sided pores are removed by either vacancy transport to the surrounding pores, or move towards the external surfaces through grain boundary diffusion. Four- and higher order-sided pores stabilize because an equal amount of vacancies are gained and lost through the connecting grain boundaries. Grain dewetting contributes to pore coalescence, suggesting that pore kinetics and grain growth are coupled and should be analyzed in concert. The combined sintering and grain growth kinetics define six regimes of sintering behavior: (1) T, the transient regime; (2) E$_Υ$, the surface energy dominated, early sintering regime, where the grain growth exponent, p = 1, and the stress concentration factor, $f$ ~ $1/\hat{ρ}^{4.6}$; (3) E S , the stress dominated, early sintering regime, where p = 1 and $f$ ~ $1/\hat{ρ}^{4}$; (4) I$_Υ$, the surface energy dominated, intermediate sintering regime, where p = 2 and $f$ ~ $1/\hat{ρ}^{4.6}$; (5) I S , the stress dominated, intermediate sintering regime, where p = 2 and $f$ ~ $1/\hat{ρ}^{4}$; and (6) L, the late sintering regime, where p = 3 and $f$ ~ 1. At the macroscopic level, the rapid densification and suppression of grain growth observed in the electric field assisted sintering process is a consequence of the compounding effects of the underlying stress-, transport-, and interfacial-energy-induced energy minimization kinetics, as predicted by the multi-scale framework.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗