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NASA NTRS1999

Simulating the Formation of Lunar Floor-Fracture Craters Using Elastoviscoplastic Relaxation

Lunar floor-fracture craters formed during the height of mare basalt emplacement. Due to a general temporal and spatial relation with the maria, these craters, numbering some 200, may be diagnostic of the thermal structure of the crust during this time. As the name suggests, these craters exhibit brittle failure, generally limited to the central floor region. That, and a shallower depth than fresh lunar craters, has led to two main theories as to their formation: laccolith emplacement under the crater and viscous relaxation. The implications of each model for the state of the Moon's crust during this time are quite different, so the viability of each model must be checked. Laccolith emplacement has been treated elsewhere. However, previous attempts to study the relaxation of the craters have assumed only a uniform, Newtonian viscous response of the near surface to the topographic driving forces, and simply postulated that the fractures resulted from tensile stresses associated with floor uplift. Here, we use a more sophisticated rheological model that includes not only non-Newtonian viscous behavior (i.e., the viscosity is stress-dependent), but also incorporates elastic behavior and a plastic component to the rheology to directly simulate the formation of the floor fractures. The results of our simulations show that while elastoviscoplastic relaxation is potentially viable for larger floor-fracture craters, it is not viable for craters with diameters < or = 60 km, the size of the majority of floor-fracture craters. We employ the finite element method, a numerical technique well suited for boundary-value problems, via the commercially available MARC software package. To test the viability of topographic relaxation, our goal is to prepare the simulations as to maximize the amount of relaxation. We take advantage of the natural axisymmetry of craters, simulating one radial plane. Initial shapes are based on data for fresh craters from Pike. To simplify implementation, a fourth order polynomial is used for the basin, while a third order inverse function is used for the rim. This form closely approximates the long-wavelength behavior of complex craters, while ignoring higher-frequency topography, save the rim. This approximation is appropriate because crater relaxation is strongly controlled by long-wavelength topography. Loading is accomplished assuming a uniform gravity field (1.62 m/s-square) and a uniform density of 2900 kg/cubic m. The initial stress state is set to be hydrostatic, with an additional pressure term to account for any overlying topography. This additional pressure term is tapered exponentially with depth. While the simulations quickly settle on a preferred stress state, and while the final solution is fairly insensitive to the choice of the e-folding depth of the taper, selecting an e-folding depth close to the diameter of the crater sets the initial stress state near the preferred state. We assume a diuranally averaged surface temperature of -20 C, and allow temperature to increase with depth at a rate of 50 K//km. Assuming a thermal conductivity of 2 W/in/K, this gradient translates to a heat flow of 100mW/square m, an extremely high value for the Moon. Temperature, of course, will not increase without bound. To maximize relaxation, we allow our temperature profile to increase linearly until it reaches the solidus (assumed to be 1200C) at a depth of 24.4 km, at which point it is kept constant. The presence of melt will drop the bulk viscosity; however, we have no rheological control for partial melts. Therefore, we make no attempt to simulate this situation. Elastoviscoplastic rheological model. In general, geologic materials can behave in three main ways: elastically, viscously (via solid-state creep), and brittly (plasticity is a continuum approach to simulate this phenomenon). We combine these three deformation mechanisms in an extended Maxwell solid, where the total strain can be broken down into a simple summation of the elastic, creep, and plastic strains. In relaxation phenomena in general, the system takes advantage of any means possible to eliminate deviatoric stresses by relaxing away the topography. Previous analyses have only modeled the viscous response. Comparatively, the elastic response in our model can augment the relaxation, to a point. This effect decreases as the elastic response becomes stiffer; indeed, in the limit of infinite elastic Young's modulus (and with no plasticity), the solution converges on the purely viscous solution. Igneous rocks common to the lunar near-surface have Young's modulii in the range of 10-100 GPa. To maximize relaxation, we use a Young's modulus of 10 GPa. (There is negligible sensitivity to the other elastic modulus, the Poisson's ratio; we use 0.25.) For the viscous response, we use a flow law for steady-state creep in thoroughly dried Columbia diabase, because the high plagioclase (about 70 vol%) and orthopyroxene (about 17 vol%) content is similar to the composition of the lunar highland crust as described by remote sensing and sample studies: noritic anorthosite. This flow law is highly non-Newtonian, i.e., the viscosity is highly stress dependent. That, and the variability with temperature, stands in strong contrast to previous examinations of lunar floor-fracture crater relaxation. To model discrete, brittle faulting, we assume "Byerlee's rule," a standard geodynamical technique. We implement this "rule" with an-angle of internal friction of about 40 deg, and a higher-than-normal cohesion of about 3.2 MPa (to approximate the breaking of unfractured rock). The actual behavior of geologic materials is more complex than in our rheological model, so the uncertainties in the plasticity do not represent the state-of-the-art error. Additional information is contained in the original.

Dombard, A. J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancements in Lunar Dust Mitigation and Leveraging the Contamination Control Community

Lunar Dust Contamination: As we get closer to putting landers, rovers, payloads, and astronauts on the Moon, dust mitigation is becoming more critical than ever. To address the many challenges of dust mitigation on the surface, engineers and scientists are looking at various technologies that may have relevance for the contamination control community. This includes active, passive, architectural, and operational solutions. There have been advances in coatings for dust mitigation at NASA and through commercial partnerships (see Wiesner, Wohl, et al). There have been advancements to previous solutions as well as novel solutions to address dust mitigation on the surface and on-orbit. There have been several efforts to better understand the effectiveness of various terrestrial and dust mitigation solutions with much of this data published in recent years. In the area of dust mitigation, dust contamination or infiltration refers to the impingement or contact of planetary dust with items not normally dusty and whose operation may therefore be compromised. Recent Advancements in Dust Mitigation: Dust mitigation strategies are becoming more common for hardware heading to the Moon, with most major programs implementing lunar dust contamination requirements for human health and equipment. In the last couple of years, NASA has created more guidance to assist hardware developers with dust mitigation. This includes NASA-STD-1008 (Classifications and Requirements for Testing Systems and Hardware to be Exposed to Dust in Planetary) and NASA TP 20220018746 (Lunar Dust Mitigation Guide and Reference). Several projects are testing hardware in relevant dusty environments to understand their tolerance to lunar dust. There has been a significant increase in the amount of testing with lunar simulants, with the NASA Simulant Advisory Committee serving a resource for NASA and our partners. There are new solutions for detecting and monitoring the dust internally and externally. Learning from the contamination control community: In addition to sharing potentially relevant solutions at the workshop, the dust mitigation community is also interested in learning from the contamination control community on ways to address lunar dust. For instance, a major aspect of managing the dust is monitoring and detection. This is critical for understanding when maintenance is needed and to inform future missions. Another challenge of working with lunar dust is quantifying and characterizing the smallest of particles. There are also challenges in modeling lunar dust and its behavior. The dust mitigation community can also leverage lessons learned from the planetary protection community.

dust mitagation↗

NASA NTRS1989

From primal sketches to the recovery of intensity and reflectance representations

A local change in intensity (edge) is a characteristic that is preserved when an image is filtered through a bandpass filter. Primal sketch representations of images, using the bandpass-filtered data, have become a common process since Marr proposed his model for early human vision. Here, researchers move beyond the primal sketch extraction to the recovery of intensity and reflectance representations using only the bandpass-filtered data. Assessing the response of an ideal step edge to the Laplacian of Gaussian (NAb/A squared G) filter, they found that the resulting filtered data preserves the original change of intensity that created the edge in addition to the edge location. Using the filtered data, they can construct the primal sketches and recover the original (relative) intensity levels between the boundaries. It was found that the result of filtering an ideal step edge with the Intensity-Dependent Spatial Summation (IDS) filter preserves the actual intensity on both sides of the edge, in addition to the edge location. The IDS filter also preserves the reflectance ratio at the edge location. Therefore, one can recover the intensity levels between the edge boundaries as well as the (relative) reflectance representation. The recovery of the reflectance representation is of special interest as it erases shadowing degradations and other dependencies on temporal illumination. This method offers a new approach to low-level vision processing as well as to high data-compression coding. High compression can be gained by transmitting only the information associated with the edge location (edge primitives) that is necessary for the recovery

Alter-Gartenberg, Rachel↗

NASA NTRS2020

Chrono-Validation of Near-Real-Time Landslide Susceptibility Models via Plugin Statistical Simulations

The idea behind any validation scheme in landslide susceptibility studies is to test whether a model calibrated on a certain data can predict an unknown dataset of the same nature (landslide presences/absences and covariates). Almost the entirety of landslide susceptibility studies are validated by subsetting a single dataset into a training and test sets. This dataset usually corresponds either to event-specific or to historical inventories. Very rarely, a multi-temporal inventory is available and, in the few cases where this condition is met, the validation practices involve training a model on a specific landslide inventory, deriving a single predictive equation and validating it on a subsequent landslide inventory. This commonly leads landslide predictive studies, even those with a strong statistical rigor, to neglect the uncertainty estimation in their modeling scheme. In statistics, validation can also be performed via statistical simulations. This means that after fitting a given model, one can generate any number of predictive functions and test their predictive skills on any type and number of unknown datasets. In this work, we take a similar direction and we apply it to model and validate three separate co-seismic inventories, including an uncertainty estimation phase. We mapped these inventories within the same area in Indonesia, for three earthquakes occurred in 2012, 2017 and 2018. Specifically, we build three event-specific Bayesian Generalize Additive Models of the binomial family. From each model we then simulate 1000 predictive realizations over the remaining two inventories, by using a plug-in scheme where all the morphometric covariates are kept fixed and only the ground motion is replaced according to the prediction target. By doing so, we introduce a new analytical tool for near-real-time landslide predictive purposes, which is able to produce a probabilistic model which stands in between the definitions of susceptibility and hazard. In fact, our model is able to accurately estimate “where” and “when” - although not “how frequently” - landslide have occurred by featuring the multitemporal information of the trigger. In our findings, the simulations are quite similar to the fitted models; and the nine combinations we analyse produce excellent performance. This result confirms the assumption that “the past is the key to the future”, as we show that the relative contribution of each variable and their interactions in each probabilistic model remains practically the same across temporal replicates. This information is not trivial because it supports the routines implemented in global near-real-time applications.

Temporal validation↗

NASA NTRS1995

Effective Transition Management: The Seamless System

In this age of shrinking resources, cost avoidance has become as critical as direct cost savings. There is no doubt that Effective Transition Management (ETM) achieves this aim. What then, is ETM and how does it achieve its goal? It is the introduction and use of a hierarchical decision model and computerized tracking system which successfully integrates capital acquisition into the support base. You will discover that because this proven system is generic, compatible and flexible, its applications are virtually unlimited. It is this highly dynamic process which I would like to share with you. Skilled specialists are now rotated rapidly through acquisition programs on a requirements-driven basis. Managers continue their quest for inefficient areas to trim, slash or cut. However, there is one area of operations in every major corporation and government department that, as yet, has not received the attention it deserves. This essential element is Transition Management. Capital acquisitions, at some point, must be handed off to a support matrix for the 'in-service' phase of their life cycle. Most of us who have been on the receiving end can usually cite outrageous examples of adjustment, recovery or disaster. This means buying what amounts to a second initial sparing package, re-aligning the range and depth of inventory to match a changed maintenance concept, interpreting contractor-developed configuration control data or ensuring that the latest information is contained in the technical publications. This list is endless. For major purchases, this 'in-service' phase is often fifteen, twenty or more years. The least desirable, yet most common condition, is to suffer up to five years of recovering from errors or omissions after the transition to the support matrix occurs. Without ETM, making new equipment fully operational may thus become a long and costly process.

Burke, Marty↗

NASA NTRS2001

Ontolology Negotiation Between Scientific Archives

This paper describes an approach to ontology negotiation between information agents. Ontologies are declarative (data driven) expressions of an agent's "world": the objects, operations, facts, and rules that constitute the logical space within which an agent performs. Ontology negotiation enables agents to cooperate in performing a task, even if they are based on different ontologies. 'Me process allows agents to discover ontology conflicts and then, though incremental interpretation, clarification, and explanation, establish a common basis for communicating with each other. The need for ontology negotiation stems from the proliferation of information sources and of agents with widely varying specialty expertise. The unmanageability of massive amounts of web-based information is already becoming apparent. It is starting to have an impact on professions that rely on distributed archived information. If the expansion continues at its present rate without an ontology negotiation process being introduced, there will soon be no way to ensure the accuracy and completeness of information that scientists obtain from sources other than their own experiments. Ontology negotiation is becoming increasingly recognized as a crucial element of scalable agent technology. This is because agents, by their very nature, are supposed to operate with a fair amount of autonomy and independence from their end-users. Part of this independence is the ability to enlist other agents for help in performing a task (such as locating information on the web). The agents enlisted for help may be "owned" by a different end-user or organization (such as a document archive), and there is no guarantee that they will use the same terminology or understand the same concepts (objects, operators, theorems, rules) as the recruiting agent. For NASA, the need for ontology negotiation arises at the boundaries between scientific disciplines. For example: modeling the effects of global warming might involve knowledge about imaging, climate analysis, ecology, demographics, industrial economics, and biology. The need for ontology negotiation also arises at the boundaries between scientific programs. For example, a Principal Investigator may want to use information from a previous mission to complement downloads from the instruments currently deployed.

Bailin, Sidney C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dynamics of A Vibration Isolation System Including Inertia of the Human Body

Using an exercise device in a spacecraft is liable to transmit an unacceptable amount of vibration to that vehicle. This is commonly mitigated by a Vibration Isolation System (VIS), whose dynamics must be analyzed to confirm that the oscillatory forces on the spacecraft remain within allowed range, both from a structural and microgravity perspective (see, e.g., [1]). When modeling a VIS for countermeasures devices, one common approach is to record forces and moments applied on the floor while exercising, and then drive the VIS simulation by applying these recorded loads to the exercise platform part of the VIS mechanical model. This approach misses the fact that when exercising on a moving platform, the force and moment on it will differ from that on the stationary floor due to inertial effects involving the human body. For example, standing up on a platform as it gives under the subject’s feet reduces the foot force on it, and such inertial effects are especially complex for rotational motion. In principle, one could model both the motion of the human body and dynamics of the VIS mechanism in a single combined simulation, e.g., employing a tool such as the commonly used biomechanical simulation OpenSim. Here, the joints of the human body would be driven kinematically along prescribed exercise trajectories while the dynamics engine computed the response of the VIS degrees of freedom. However, mechanism designers and biomechanics experts have their own established tools, making it very desirable to have a way of decoupling the biomechanics from the VIS modeling, simulation, and analyses. We have derived a set of equations that rigorously accomplishes this goal, and have implemented them as an interface function that provides an alternative driving mechanism for an existing force-based VIS analysis simulation. When enabled, the simulated human/VIS system dynamics is now driven by this function, instead of the recorded force methodology described above. The function is designed to accept input from a data file containing the required time-stamped human motion and inertia terms corresponding to the specific exercise in question. This data file is generated by an OpenSim plugin written for that purpose. The existing VIS analytical simulation is developed using NASA’s Trick Simulation Environment [2], as well as its MBDyn multibody dynamics [3] package. The presentation will provide a detailed overview of the mathematical formulation, assumptions, plugin implementation, software interfaces, and results for a sample set of representative exercises. The results from this work aim to better inform VIS design efforts, as well as countermeasure device/protocol designs with respect to exercise type and frequency effects on vehicle structural and microgravity restrictions.

Countermeasures↗

NASA NTRS2009

Evolution of Web Services in EOSDIS: Search and Order Metadata Registry (ECHO)

During 2005 through 2008, NASA defined and implemented a major evolutionary change in it Earth Observing system Data and Information System (EOSDIS) to modernize its capabilities. This implementation was based on a vision for 2015 developed during 2005. The EOSDIS 2015 Vision emphasizes increased end-to-end data system efficiency and operability; increased data usability; improved support for end users; and decreased operations costs. One key feature of the Evolution plan was achieving higher operational maturity (ingest, reconciliation, search and order, performance, error handling) for the NASA s Earth Observing System Clearinghouse (ECHO). The ECHO system is an operational metadata registry through which the scientific community can easily discover and exchange NASA's Earth science data and services. ECHO contains metadata for 2,726 data collections comprising over 87 million individual data granules and 34 million browse images, consisting of NASA s EOSDIS Data Centers and the United States Geological Survey's Landsat Project holdings. ECHO is a middleware component based on a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). The system is comprised of a set of infrastructure services that enable the fundamental SOA functions: publish, discover, and access Earth science resources. It also provides additional services such as user management, data access control, and order management. The ECHO system has a data registry and a services registry. The data registry enables organizations to publish EOS and other Earth-science related data holdings to a common metadata model. These holdings are described through metadata in terms of datasets (types of data) and granules (specific data items of those types). ECHO also supports browse images, which provide a visual representation of the data. The published metadata can be mapped to and from existing standards (e.g., FGDC, ISO 19115). With ECHO, users can find the metadata stored in the data registry and then access the data either directly online or through a brokered order to the data archive organization. ECHO stores metadata from a variety of science disciplines and domains, including Climate Variability and Change, Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems, Earth Surface and Interior, Atmospheric Composition, Weather, and Water and Energy Cycle. ECHO also has a services registry for community-developed search services and data services. ECHO provides a platform for the publication, discovery, understanding and access to NASA s Earth Observation resources (data, service and clients). In their native state, these data, service and client resources are not necessarily targeted for use beyond their original mission. However, with the proper interoperability mechanisms, users of these resources can expand their value, by accessing, combining and applying them in unforeseen ways.

Mitchell, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS1996

A Digital Control Algorithm for Magnetic Suspension Systems

An ongoing program exists to investigate and develop magnetic suspension technologies and modelling techniques at NASA Langley Research Center. Presently, there is a laboratory-scale large air-gap suspension system capable of five degree-of-freedom (DOF) control that is operational and a six DOF system that is under development. Those systems levitate a cylindrical element containing a permanent magnet core above a planar array of electromagnets, which are used for levitation and control purposes. In order to evaluate various control approaches with those systems, the Generic Real-Time State-Space Controller (GRTSSC) software package was developed. That control software package allows the user to implement multiple control methods and allows for varied input/output commands. The development of the control algorithm is presented. The desired functionality of the software is discussed, including the ability to inject noise on sensor inputs and/or actuator outputs. Various limitations, common issues, and trade-offs are discussed including data format precision; the drawbacks of using either Direct Memory Access (DMA), interrupts, or program control techniques for data acquisition; and platform dependent concerns related to the portability of the software, such as memory addressing formats. Efforts to minimize overall controller loop-rate and a comparison of achievable controller sample rates are discussed. The implementation of a modular code structure is presented. The format for the controller input data file and the noise information file is presented. Controller input vector information is available for post-processing by mathematical analysis software such as MATLAB1.

Britton, Thomas C.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Effects of confinement on partially premixed flames

Partially premixed combustion is an intermediate regime between the limiting cases of premixed and nonpremixed combustion. Although combustion problems are generally approached from one of these two limiting cases, there are many practical situations where flames cannot be considered as purely premixed or nonpremixed, and thus the partially premixed approach must be used. In partially premixed combustion, mechanisms from the premixed and nonpremixed regimes can coexist, and as a result some interesting new phenomena can arise. One such phenomenon is the flame stabilization in laminar mixing layers by triple flames. One of the first observations of triple flames was made by Phillips (1965), who investigated a triple flame propagating in a methane mixing layer. Kioni et al. (1993) also examined triple flames both experimentally and numerically. There have also been numerous analytical studies on the shape and propagation of triple flames under various assumptions by Dold (1989), Dold et al. (1991), and Hartley and Dold (1991). In terms of modeling, Muller et al. (1994) have combined the flamelet formulations for premixed and nonpremixed combustion in order to treat lifted diffusion flames. One common feature in the analytical and numerical studies mentioned above is the assumption of zero heat release, which is necessary to make the problem tractable. The effect of heat release on triple flames was investigated by Ruetsch et al. (1995), where for the unconfined case, flame speeds larger than their premixed counterparts were found. One of the most important practical situations in which these conditions arise is in lifted turbulent jet diffusion flames. At a critical velocity the burning zone of a fuel jet lifts off from the nozzle, moves to increasing distances as the jet velocity increases, and finally blows off. The mechanisms that control these phenomena, i.e. that determine the stability of these flames, are still not understood. In addition to regions where diffusion flame stabilization takes place, partially premixed conditions also exist during the ignition process in nonpremixed systems. Numerical simulations by Reveillon et al. (1994) of the ignition process in a weakly stirred mixture of fuel and oxidizer show that triple flames propagate along lines of stoichiometric mixture fraction throughout the fluid. In addition, Peters (1994) notes that NO(x) emissions are likely to be large in such transient cases, and therefore an understanding of triple flames can provide information concerning pollutant formation. This study extends the work previously done and examines the effects of lateral confinement on partially premixed flames. Once again, we study both the flame structure and propagation.

Ruetsch, G. R.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Formation and Combustion of Unconfined Drop Clusters in Microgravity

Single-drop and droplet array studies have become common methods to isolate and investigate the effects of any of the complexities that enter into the drop combustion process. Microgravity environments are required to allow larger drops to be studied while minimizing or eliminating the confounding effects of buoyancy. Based on the results from current isolated drop, drop array, and spray studies funded through the Microgravity Science and Applications Division, it has become clear that even with the effects of buoyancy removed, the extrapolation of results from droplet array studies to spray flames is difficult. The problem occurs because even the simplest spray systems introduce complexities of multi-disperse drop sizes and drop-drop interactions, coupled with more complicated fluid dynamics. Not only do these features make the interpretation of experimental data difficult, they also make the problem very difficult to analyze computationally. Group combustion models, in which the interaction between droplets is treated on a statistical manner, have become a popular method to investigate the behavior of large numbers of interacting droplets, particularly through the work of Ryan et al. and Bellan and co-workers. While these models idealize the actual spray systems to a point where they can be treated computationally, the experimental analogy to these models is difficult to achieve because it requires the formation and Combustion of drop clusters without the effects of buoyancy. Therefore, even though these models have provided useful and insightful information, the verification of the results by direct comparison with experimental data is still lacking.

Liu, S.↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Impact of Soil Reflectance on the Quantification of the Green Vegetation Fraction from NDVI

The green vegetation fraction (Fg) is an important climate and hydrologic model parameter. A common method to calculate Fg is to create a simple linear mixing rnodeP between two NDVI endmembers: bare soil NDVI (NDVI(sub o)) and full vegetation NDVI (NDVI(sub infinity)). Usually it is assumed that NDVI(sub o), is close to zero (NDVI(sub o) approx.-0.05) and is generally chosen from the lowest observed NDVI values. However, the mean soil NDVI computed from 2906 samples is much larger (NDVI=0.2) and is highly variable (standard deviation=O. 1). We show that the underestimation of NDVI(sub o) yields overestimations of Fg. The largest errors occur in grassland and shrubland areas. Using parameters for NDVI(sub o) and NDVI(sub infinity) derived from global scenes yields overestimations of Fg ((Delta) Fg*) that are larger than 0.2 for the majority of U.S. land cover types when pixel NDVI values are 0.2<NDVI(sub pixel)<0.4. Figure 1 shows how the Fg overestimation varies for the most common land cover types in the conterminous U.S. for typical seasonal NDVI values. When using conterminous U.S. scenes to derive NDV(sub o) and NDVI(sub infinity), the overestimation is less (0.10-0.17 for 0.2<NDVI(sub pixel)<0.4). As a result, parts of the conterminous U.S. are affected at different times of the year depending on the local seasonal NDVI cycle. We propose using global databases of NDVI(sub o) along with information on historical NDVI(sub pixel) values to compute a statistically most-likely estimate of Fg (Fg*). Using in situ measurements made at the Sevilleta LTER, we show that this approach yields better estimates of Fg than using global invariant NDVI(sub o) values estimated from whole scenes (Figure 2). At the two studied sites, the Fg estimate was adjusted by 52% at the grassland and 86% at the shrubland. More significant advances will require information on spatial distribution of soil reflectance.

Montandon, L. M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Modeling Weather Impact on Airport Arrival Miles-in-Trail Restrictions

When the demand for either a region of airspace or an airport approaches or exceeds the available capacity, miles-in-trail (MIT) restrictions are the most frequently issued traffic management initiatives (TMIs) that are used to mitigate these imbalances. Miles-intrail operations require aircraft in a traffic stream to meet a specific inter-aircraft separation in exchange for maintaining a safe and orderly flow within the stream. This stream of aircraft can be departing an airport, over a common fix, through a sector, on a specific route or arriving at an airport. This study begins by providing a high-level overview of the distribution and causes of arrival MIT restrictions for the top ten airports in the United States. This is followed by an in-depth analysis of the frequency, duration and cause of MIT restrictions impacting the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) from 2009 through 2011. Then, machine-learning methods for predicting (1) situations in which MIT restrictions for ATL arrivals are implemented under low demand scenarios, and (2) days in which a large number of MIT restrictions are required to properly manage and control ATL arrivals are presented. More specifically, these predictions were accomplished by using an ensemble of decision trees with Bootstrap aggregation (BDT) and supervised machine learning was used to train the BDT binary classification models. The models were subsequently validated using data cross validation methods. When predicting the occurrence of arrival MIT restrictions under low demand situations, the model was able to achieve over all accuracy rates ranging from 84% to 90%, with false alarm ratios ranging from 10% to 15%. In the second set of studies designed to predict days on which a high number of MIT restrictions were required, overall accuracy rates of 80% were achieved with false alarm ratios of 20%. Overall, the predictions proposed by the model give better MIT usage information than what has been currently provided under current day operations. Traffic flow managers can use these predictions to identify potential MIT restrictions to eliminate (e.g., those occurring during low arrival demand periods), and to determine the days in which a significant number of restrictions may be required

Operation↗

NASA NTRS2021

Intercomparison of Middle Atmospheric Meteorological Analyses for the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-2010

Detailed meteorological analyses based on observations extending through the middle atmosphere (~15 to 100 km altitude) can provide key information to whole atmosphere modelling systems regarding the physical mechanisms linking day-to-day changes in ionospheric electron density to meteorological variability near the Earth’s surface. However, the extent to which independent middle atmosphere analyses differ in their representation of wave-induced coupling to the ionosphere is unclear. To begin to address this issue, we present the first intercomparison among four such analyses, JAGUAR-DAS, MERRA-2, NAVGEM-HA, and WACCMX+DART, focusing on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) 2009-2010 winter, which includes a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). This intercomparison examines the altitude, latitude, and time dependences of zonal mean zonal winds and temperatures among these four analyses over the 1 December 2009 – 31 March 2010 period, as well as latitude and altitude dependences of monthly mean amplitudes of the diurnal and semidiurnal migrating solar tides, the eastward propagating diurnal zonal wave number 3 nonmigrating tide, and traveling planetary waves associated with the quasi-5-day and quasi-2-day Rossby modes. Our results show generally good agreement among the four analyses up to the stratopause (~50 km altitude). Large discrepancies begin to emerge in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere owing to (1) differences in the types of satellite data assimilated by each system and (2) differences in the details of the global atmospheric models used by each analysis system. The results of this intercomparison provide initial estimates of uncertainty in analyses commonly used to constrain middle atmospheric meteorological variability in whole atmosphere model simulations.

John P Mccormack↗

NASA NTRS2015

2015 Space Radiation Standing Review Panel

The 2015 Space Radiation Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) met for a site visit in Houston, TX on December 8 - 9, 2015. The SRP met with representatives from the Space Radiation Element and members of the Human Research Program (HRP) to review the updated research plan for the Risk of Radiation Carcinogenesis Cancer Risk. The SRP also reviewed the newly revised Evidence Reports for the Risk of Acute Radiation Syndromes Due to Solar Particle Events (SPEs) (Acute Risk), the Risk of Acute (In-flight) and Late Central Nervous System Effects from Radiation Exposure (CNS Risk), and the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Other Degenerative Tissue Effects from Radiation (Degen Risk), as well as a status update on these Risks. The SRP would like to commend Dr. Simonsen, Dr. Huff, Dr. Nelson, and Dr. Patel for their detailed presentations. The Space Radiation Element did a great job presenting a very large volume of material. The SRP considers it to be a strong program that is well-organized, well-coordinated and generates valuable data. The SRP commended the tissue sharing protocols, working groups, systems biology analysis, and standardization of models. In several of the discussed areas the SRP suggested improvements of the research plans in the future. These include the following: It is important that the team has expanded efforts examining immunology and inflammation as important components of the space radiation biological response. This is an overarching and important focus that is likely to apply to all aspects of the program including acute, CVD, CNS, cancer and others. Given that the area of immunology/inflammation is highly complex (and especially so as it relates to radiation), it warrants the expansion of investigators expertise in immunology and inflammation to work with the individual research projects and also the NASA Specialized Center of Research (NSCORs). Historical data on radiation injury to be entered into the Watson “big data” study must be used with caution. The general scientific issues of reproducibility, details of experimental methods and data analysis from preclinical and basic research laboratories have been raised broadly over the last few years (not specific to this work) and indicate that caution must be applied in the ways these data are used. This pertains to preclinical data and also to phase 3 clinical trials in radiation oncology and medical oncology. Of course, appropriate use and analysis of these “big-data” sets also offer the potential of pinpointing limitations and extracting remaining useful information. Emphasis should be placed on the latter possibility. A key target is risk reduction from radiation exposure. Progress of the entire space program, now moving towards the Mars mission, requires timely answers to key components of human risk, which are known to be complex. Periodic review of progress should be conducted with additional resources directed into achieving critical milestones. Turning the long red bars to yellow and green (or for some risks such as CNS possibly to grey) must be high priority. That such progress will require new science and not engineering means that it should be viewed in a knowledge-based light. The technology-based aspects of engineering issues are certainly as important, however, science and knowledge-based problems are solved in a different way than engineering. Timelines for engineering are more predictable, while for science, progress can be methodical with occasional major incremental findings that can rapidly change the rate of progress. As opportunities for rapid incremental changes arise, periodic enhancement of investment is strongly recommended to enable such new knowledge to be quickly and efficiently exploited. Collaborations and linkages with National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) and the Department of Defense (DoD) are in place and more are encouraged, where possible, with the radiation injury and medical countermeasure studies. This could include utilizing some of their animal model testing contracts to facilitate obtaining results using common platforms. Such approach will facilitate the comparison of results among laboratories, and will facilitate and accelerate the development of medical countermeasures. It is particularly noteworthy that the NASA Space Radiation Element is reaching out to the Multidisciplinary European Low Dose Initiative (MELODI) platform coordinating low dose radiation risk research, and to other international agencies that are studying low dose radiation effects in an effort to fill the void generated by the cancelation of the Department of Energy (DOE) low dose radiation program. While NASA is working actively with NIAID and BARDA to integrate their relevant findings of radiation mitigator investigations to NASA programs, the committee notes its disappointment that the United States currently lacks a dedicated low dose radiation program with clear mechanistic orientation and aimed at the quantification and mitigation of human radiation risk on Earth. This void gives to the NASA Space Radiation Program Element special societal value, but also makes its overall design more challenging.

Steinberg, Susan↗

NASA NTRS2013

Estimating the Properties of Hard X-Ray Solar Flares by Constraining Model Parameters

We wish to better constrain the properties of solar flares by exploring how parameterized models of solar flares interact with uncertainty estimation methods. We compare four different methods of calculating uncertainty estimates in fitting parameterized models to Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager X-ray spectra, considering only statistical sources of error. Three of the four methods are based on estimating the scale-size of the minimum in a hypersurface formed by the weighted sum of the squares of the differences between the model fit and the data as a function of the fit parameters, and are implemented as commonly practiced. The fourth method is also based on the difference between the data and the model, but instead uses Bayesian data analysis and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to calculate an uncertainty estimate. Two flare spectra are modeled: one from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite X1.3 class flare of 2005 January 19, and the other from the X4.8 flare of 2002 July 23.We find that the four methods give approximately the same uncertainty estimates for the 2005 January 19 spectral fit parameters, but lead to very different uncertainty estimates for the 2002 July 23 spectral fit. This is because each method implements different analyses of the hypersurface, yielding method-dependent results that can differ greatly depending on the shape of the hypersurface. The hypersurface arising from the 2005 January 19 analysis is consistent with a normal distribution; therefore, the assumptions behind the three non- Bayesian uncertainty estimation methods are satisfied and similar estimates are found. The 2002 July 23 analysis shows that the hypersurface is not consistent with a normal distribution, indicating that the assumptions behind the three non-Bayesian uncertainty estimation methods are not satisfied, leading to differing estimates of the uncertainty. We find that the shape of the hypersurface is crucial in understanding the output from each uncertainty estimation technique, and that a crucial factor determining the shape of hypersurface is the location of the low-energy cutoff relative to energies where the thermal emission dominates. The Bayesian/MCMC approach also allows us to provide detailed information on probable values of the low-energy cutoff, Ec, a crucial parameter in defining the energy content of the flare-accelerated electrons. We show that for the 2002 July 23 flare data, there is a 95% probability that Ec lies below approximately 40 keV, and a 68% probability that it lies in the range 7-36 keV. Further, the low-energy cutoff is more likely to be in the range 25-35 keV than in any other 10 keV wide energy range. The low-energy cutoff for the 2005 January 19 flare is more tightly constrained to 107 +/- 4 keV with 68% probability.

X-rays↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Approach to Identifying Aspects of Positive Pilot Behavior within the Aviation Safety Reporting System

The National Airspace System (NAS) is constantly evolving as air traffic continues to ramp up to pre-pandemic numbers and projected to grow to unprecedented levels in the coming years. As well as increasing demand to the current system, emerging operations such as Unmanned Autonomous Systems are also expected to add to complexity in the airspace. To address these issues, the industry and government agencies supporting the NAS will need to rely upon additional automation and new technologies to address future operational requirements, while continuing to be a world-leading safe transportation system. As these new technologies are implemented, the system continues to rely on human pilots and controllers in the loop to monitor the system and intervene in situations the automation cannot handle. The goal of proactively addressing safety is of foremost concern to ensure passenger confidence. The industry has implemented various Safety Monitoring Systems to identify safety risks and proactively address them before they result in a serious incident or accident. One such program is the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). ASRS is a long-established system where pilots and controllers voluntarily and anonymously report safety incidents they experienced and observed during line operations by providing rich text narratives describing the events, the environment, and conditions leading to the safety event of concern. These narratives provide insight and context around events of interest and can be used to identify emerging problems. They can trigger investigations within Flight Operational Quality Assurance or Flight Data Monitoring programs. However, this process typically focuses on the adverse events and the unsafe aspects of the operations surrounding the reported or detected events. This perspective of investigating factors that went wrong around an adverse event is commonly referred to as Safety I. Alternatively, characterizing successful actions that operators perform every day under varying conditions that keep the system within safe operating bounds is a concept referred to as Safety II. The benefit of the Safety II view is that the scope is much larger than that of Safety I since a vast majority of the operations result in successful flights. Many of the successful techniques used to manage operational threats are not documented in standard operating procedures or taught during training. They are typically acquired over time by working with experienced pilots during line operations or in many cases after experiencing a problem for the first time and reacting to it in situ, drawing from years of experience to manage the threat. In an attempt to quantify these positive actions, we are proposing an approach to extracting key behaviors within ASRS reports that can support the Safety II concept. Our analysis assumes that ASRS reports contain some descriptions of corrective actions that operators performed to prevent a situation from leading to an accident. Leveraging recent advances in Natural Language Process modeling, we have developed an approach to extract positive sentiment from reports, embed these positive statements in a vector space where they can be numerically analyzed, and clustering these statements into similar contextual categories. From these contextualized categories we can attempt to summarized and distilled aspects of the positive behavior. The goal is to identify categories of behavior that describe consistent operator techniques that supports the Safety II concept. With this information, airlines may enable learning from these positive actions, or address procedures that need to be changed to avoid having pilots implement a workaround. These insights can provide a lens into what is “going right” in the operations that may otherwise not be known widely within the community. It is envisioned that this approach can be extended to other narrative programs such as Line Operation Safety Audit or Learning Improvement Team reports where similar observed behavior can be analyzed to extract positive actions and inform the overall operations.

NLP↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Approach to Identifying Aspects of Positive Pilot Behavior within the Aviation Safety Reporting System

NLP↗