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472 records · Page 27

Interannual Variability in Surface LW Fluxes Over the Tropical Oceans As Seen in ISCCP-FD and GEWEX SRB Data Sets

One notable aspect of Earth s climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. In this work we will evaluate two recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project FD radiative flux profiles are available from mid-1 983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and TOVS (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder)thermodynamic profiles. Fu!l and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NAS/Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. Significant differences in both interannual variability as well as trends are found between among these data sets. For radiative fluxes these differences are traced to TOVS thermodynamic soundings used to drive the ISCCP-FD calculations. Errors in near surface temperature and precipitable water cascade into ISCCP upward and downward IR flux components, demonstrably affecting interannual variability. Revised estimates of clear-sky fluxes over ocean are made using statistical algorithms and water vapor from the (SSM/I) Special Sensor Microwave Imager. These calculations show strong near-surface water vapor feedback over the tropical oceans in association with SST changes. However, it is also shown that ISCCP longwave cloud forcing, common to both the ISCCP-FD and GEWEX SRB retrievals, is the main driver of a long-term decrease in net LW flux to the surface during the near-20 year period covered by these revised estimates.

Robertson, F. R.↗

Arctic Tipping Points Triggering Global Change (LDRD Final Report)

The Arctic is warming and feedbacks in the coupled Earth system may be driving the Arctic to tipping events that could have critical downstream impacts for the rest of the globe. In this project we have focused on analyzing sea ice variability and loss in the coupled Earth system Summer sea ice loss is happening rapidly and although the loss may be smooth and reversible, it has significant consequences for other Arctic systems as well as geopolitical and economic implications. Accurate seasonal predictions of sea ice minimum extent and long-term estimates of timing for a seasonally ice-free Arctic depend on a better understanding of the factors influencing sea ice dynamics and variation in this strongly coupled system. Under this project we have investigated the most influential factors in accurate predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent using machine learning models trained separately on observational data and on simulation data from five E3SM historical ensembles. Monthly averaged data from June, July, and August for a selection of ice, ocean, and atmosphere variables were used to train a random forest regression model. Gini importance measures were computed for each input feature with the testing data. We found that sea ice volume is most important earlier in the season (June) and sea ice extent became a more important predictor closer to September. Results from this study provide insight into how feature importance changes with forecast length and illustrates differences between observational data and simulated Earth system data. We have additionally performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled ultra- low resolution configuration E3SM. To our knowledge, this is the first global sensitivity analysis involving the fully-coupled E3SM Earth system model. We have found that parameter variations show significant impact on the Arctic climate state and atmospheric parameters related to cloud parameterizations are the most significant. We also find significant interactions between parameters from different components of E3SM. The results of this study provide invaluable insight into the relative importance of various parameters from the sea ice, atmosphere and ocean components of the E3SM (including cross-component parameter interactions) on various Arctic-focused quantities of interest (QOIs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GPM Mission Overview and U.S. Science Status

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission to unify and advance precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational sensors to provide "next-generation" precipitation products [1-2]. Water is fundamental to life on Earth. Knowing where and how much rain and snow falls globally is vital to understanding how weather and climate impact both our environment and Earth's water and energy cycles, including effects on agriculture, fresh water availability, and responses to natural disasters. Since rainfall and snowfall vary greatly from place to place and over time, satellites can provide more uniform observations of rain and snow around the globe than ground instruments, especially in areas where surface measurements are difficult. Relative to current global rainfall products, GPM data products will be characterized by: (l) more accurate instantaneous precipitation measurements (especially for light rain and cold-season solid precipitation), (2) more frequent sampling by an expanded constellation of domestic and international microwave radiometers including operational humidity sounders, (3) intercalibrated microwave brightness temperatures from constellation radiometers within a unified framework, and (4) physical-based precipitation retrievals from constellation radiometers using a common a priori cloud/hydrometeor database derived from GPM Core sensor measurements. The cornerstone of the GPM mission is the deployment of a Core Observatory in a unique 65 non-Sun-synchronous orbit to serve as a physics observatory and a reference standard to unify precipitation measurements by a constellation of dedicated and operational passive microwave sensors. The design of the GPM Core Observatory is an advancement of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)'s highly successful rain-sensing package. The Core Observatory will carry a Ku/Ka-band Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and a multichannel (l0-183 GHz) GPM Microwave Radiometer (GMI). Since light rain and falling snow account for a significant fraction of precipitation occurrence in middle and high latitudes, the GPM instruments extend the capabilities of the TRMM sensors to detect falling snow, measure light rain, and provide, for the first time, quantitative estimates of microphysical properties of precipitation particles. The combined use of DPR and GMI measurements will place greater constraints on possible solutions to radiometer retrievals to improve the accuracy and consistency of precipitation retrievals from all constellation radiometers. The GMI uses 13 different microwave channels to observe energy from the different types of precipitation through clouds for estimating everything from heavy to light rain and for detecting falling snow. As the satellite passes over Earth, the GMI constantly scans a region 885 kilometers across. The Ball Aerospace and Technology Corporation built the GMI under contract with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The DPR provides three-dimensional information about precipitation particles derived from reflected energy by these particles at different heights within the cloud system. The two frequencies of the DPR also allow the radar to infer the sizes of precipitation particles and offer insights into a storm's physical characteristics. The Ka-band frequen~y scans across a region of 125 kilometers and is nested within the wider scan of the Ku-band frequency of 245 kilometers. The Japan Aerospace and Exploration Agency (JAXA) and Japan's National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT) built the DPR. The Core Observatory satellite will fly at an altitude of 253 miles (407 kilometers) in a non-Sun-synchronous orbit that covers the Earth from 65 S to 65 N - from about the Antarctic Circle to the Arctic Circle. The GPM Core Observatory is being developed and tested at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Once complete, a Japanese H-lIA rocket will carry thPM Core Observatory into orbit from Tanegashima Island, Japan in 2014. The GPM constellation is envisioned to comprise 8 or more microwave sensors provided by partners, including both conical imagers and cross-track sounders. GPM is currently a partnership between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Additional partnerships are under development to include microwave radiometers on the French-Indian Megha-Tropiques satellite and U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, as well as humidity sounders or precipitation sensors on operational satellites such as the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP), NOAA-NASA Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) satellites, European MetOp satellites, and DMSP follow-on sensors. In addition, data from Chinese and Russian microwave radiometers may be available through international cooperation under the auspices of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) and Group on Earth Observations (GEO). GPM's next-generation global precipitation data will lead to scientific advances and societal benefits in the following areas: (1) Improved knowledge of the Earth's water cycle and its link to climate change (2) New insights into precipitation microphysics, storm structures and large-scale atmospheric processes (3) Better understanding of climate sensitivity and feedback processes (4) Extended capabilities in monitoring and predicting hurricanes and other extreme weather events (5) Improved forecasting capabilities for natural hazards, including floods, droughts and landslides. (6) Enhanced numerical prediction skills for weather and climate (7) Better agricultural crop forecasting and monitoring of freshwater resources. An overview of the GPM mission concept and science activities in the United States, together with an update on international collaborations in radiometer intercalibration and ground validation, will be presented.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

VERNE: Revealing the Mysteries and Histories of Venus

Introduction: The three Venus missions that were recently selected for upcoming flight (VERITAS, DAVINCI+, and EnVision) will be incredibly valuable to our understanding of Venus’ history, geology, and atmosphere. However, even once completed, key gaps in our knowledge of Venus, and more generally the formation and active processes on rocky, Earth-like planets, will still persist. Remaining questions include 1) how global intrinsic magnetic fields might be maintained on rocky worlds, and how they could then go extinct, and 2) what role atmospheric sulfur chemistry plays in climates of Earth-like planets, which is an increasingly timely subject as Earth’s own atmospheric sulfur content is climbing due to human activity. These questions require in-situ observations from Venus’ cloud deck, at the altitudes at which the UV absorber exists. The Venus Environment Research and Novel Exploration (VERNE) mission will address these questions with an aerial platform that will drift around the equatorial region of the planet for 9 days. VERNE will collect data to determine the identity of the mysterious UV absorber, while also taking magnetic field measurements over the tesserae, the regions on Venus that are most likely to retain remanent crustal magnetization, in order to understand the potential role of a past intrinsically-generated global magnetic field on Venus. Mission Objectives: The two major science objectives that drive the VERNE mission are: 1) Determine the identity of the Venusian unknown ultraviolet absorber(s). First observed approximately a century ago [1], the composition of Venus’ ultraviolet (UV) absorber is one of the oldest mysteries in Venus atmospheric chemistry [2,3]. While several candidate UV absorbers (mostly sulfur species) have been proposed, no consensus has been reached on its composition and its specific interactions with the atmosphere. Determining the identity of the UV absorber will aid climate models by showing how and where incident solar energy is absorbed by the atmosphere and make progress towards understanding the chemical and energetic processes taking place above Venus’ upper cloud deck [4]. 2) Determine if Venus retains evidence of a past, internally-generated magnetic field. While Venus does not currently have an intrinsically-generated magnetic field, evidence for the existence of a past field on Venus and a timeline of its decay will fill in a more holistic picture of the evolution of Venus’ geological record and atmosphere. As the oldest geologic units on the surface, Venus’ tesserae may still have remanent crustal magnetization signatures within the rocky composition [5]. In any case, the signatures detected will provide insight into Venus’ past geological and core dynamo activity. Mission Summary: VERNE includes a 3-part flight system made up of 1) an entry system with a HEEET (Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology) aeroshell, 2) an orbiter for data relay, and 3) an in-situ balloon and gondola. After entry into Venus’ atmosphere, the balloon will be deployed within the upper cloud deck, at an altitude of 62 km, over a tesserae region. The in-situ data collection will last for the duration of 2 full circumnavigations of the planet, which will take ~9 days. Instrumentation Suite: The four instruments that comprise VERNE’s instrument payload will enable the identification of the unknown UV absorber and the detection of remanent crustal magnetization if it exists in the tesserae. The proposed instrument suite cycle during mission operations is shown in Fig. 1. The four instruments are described below: 1) Adams (ion neutral mass spectrometer) has a range of 18-257 AMU and will detect and distinguish the mixing ratios of O₂, H₂O, H₂SO₄, S, S₂, S₃, S₄, S₅, S₆, S₇, S₈, SO, SO₂, OSSO, SO₃, Cl₂, FeCl₃ and other trace sulfur and organic species. The spatial (longitudinal) and temporal (day/night) variations will be observed throughout 2 circumnavigations with a sample cadence of 12 minutes. 2) Shelley (nephelometer) will determine the size distribution of the aerosols (0.4 to 36 um) in the atmosphere. With a size resolution of <0.7 um, it can determine which mode of H2SO4 is present and characterize the large (>30 um) organic particles previously detected by the Venera and Galileo missions [6,7]. 3) Herbert (UV imager) will measure UV radiance at 283 nm (the wavelength of SO2 absorption) and 365 nm (the unknown part of the absorber). UV images will be taken concurrently with the INMS and nephelometer to correlate UV absorption with abundances of the UV absorber species. 4) Vonnegut (magnetometer) has a range of >600 nT and a precision and accuracy of 1 nT. If magnetized by a past field, the crust may have retained a magnetization of up to 3 A/m2 [5]. With a noise floor of 10 nT, the magnetometer will be able to detect RCM from an altitude of 62 km, even if the thickness of the magnetized crust is just 1 km (Fig. 2). Mission Concept Design: VERNE will be launched with a mass of 3300 kg in an intermediate-high performance class vehicle with a 4-m fairing. The 475-day mission includes 466 days for the cruise, coasting, and orbit initialization phases before entry, descent, and balloon deployment. During the 9-day science phase, the aerial platform will make 2 circumnavigations of the planet at an altitude of 62 km. The INMS and the nephelometer will acquire data for 2 hours during the daytime and nighttime during each circumnavigation, while the UV imager will be on for the duration of the daytime, and the magnetometer will be operational throughout the entirety of the science phase. Data will be stored and processed with the JPL-designed Sphinx command and data handling system. Data will be sent from the balloon to the orbiter using an S-band relay link, stored on the orbiter, and then forwarded to Earth where it will be received by the DSN. Conclusion: VERNE will fill key gaps in our understanding of the history and ongoing processes related to the geology and atmosphere of Venus and rocky worlds in general. Even with adequate flight system contingencies and expected costs below the $900M New Frontiers cost cap, VERNE is not without its risks and challenges. Further trade spaces to explore include 1) using solely battery power vs. including solar panels to increase the mission duration and 2) investigating the use of lightweight materials and 3D-printed structures to reduce the gondola mass, among others. Acknowledgments: We would like to thank the JPL Planetary Science Summer School, especially our mentors Troy Hudson, Karl Mitchell, and Leslie Lowes, as well as our Team-X study lead Al Nash and the members of Team-X. We’d additionally like to thank our review panel for asking insightful questions and providing valuable feedback. References: [1] Ross, F. E. (1928) Astrophysical J., 68, 57-92. [2] Rossow, W. B. et al. (1980) J. Geophysical Research, 85, 8107-8128. [3] Pinto, J. P. et al. (2021) Nature Communications, 12, 175. [4] Titov, D. V. et al. (2007) Cosmic Research, 21, 401. [5] O’Rourke, J. et al. (2019) Geophysical Research Lett., 46, 5768–5777. [6] Limaye, S. S. et al. (2018) Astrobiology, 18(9), 1181-1198. [7] Grinspoon, D. H. et al. (2013) Planetary and Space Sci., 41(7), 515-542. [8] Parker, R. L. (2003) J. Geophysical Research, 108, 5006. *The cost information contained in this document is of a budgetary and planning nature and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute a commitment on the part of JPL and/or Caltech.

H Alpert↗