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NASA NTRS2013

Understanding Crew Decision-Making in the Presence of Complexity: A Flight Simulation Experiment

Crew decision making and response have long been leading causal and contributing factors associated with aircraft accidents. Further, it is anticipated that future aircraft and operational environments will increase exposure to risks related to these factors if proactive steps are not taken to account for ever-increasing complexity. A flight simulation study was designed to collect data to help in understanding how complexity can, or may, be manifest. More specifically, an experimental apparatus was constructed that allowed for manipulation of information complexity and uncertainty, while also manipulating operational complexity and uncertainty. Through these manipulations, and the aid of experienced airline pilots, several issues have been discovered, related most prominently to the influence of information content, quality, and management. Flight crews were immersed in an environment that included new operational complexities suggested for the future air transportation system as well as new technological complexities (e.g. electronic flight bags, expanded data link services, synthetic and enhanced vision systems, and interval management automation). In addition, a set of off-nominal situations were emulated. These included, for example, adverse weather conditions, traffic deviations, equipment failures, poor data quality, communication errors, and unexpected clearances, or changes to flight plans. Each situation was based on one or more reference events from past accidents or incidents, or on a similar case that had been used in previous developmental tests or studies. Over the course of the study, 10 twopilot airline crews participated, completing over 230 flights. Each flight consisted of an approach beginning at 10,000 ft. Based on the recorded data and pilot and research observations, preliminary results are presented regarding decision-making issues in the presence of the operational and technological complexities encountered during the flights.

Young, Steven D.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Are Medications Involved in Vision and Intracrancial Pressure Changes Seen in Spaceflight?

The Food and Drug Association Adverse Event Reports (FDA AER) from 2009-2011 were used to create a database from millions of known and suspected medication-related adverse events among the general public. Vision changes, sometimes associated with intracranial pressure changes (VIIP), have been noted in some long duration crewmembers. Changes in vision and blood pressure (which can subsequently affect intracranial pressure) are fairly common side effects of medications. The purpose of this study was to explore the possibility of medication involvement in crew VIIP symptoms. Reports of suspected medication-related adverse events may be filed with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) by medical professionals or consumers. Quarterly compilations of these reports are available for public download. Adverse Event Reporting System (AERS) reports from 1/1/2009- 6/30/2012 were downloaded and compiled into a searchable database for this study. Reports involving individuals under the age of 18 and older than 65 were excluded from this analysis. Case reports involving chronic diseases such as cancer, diabetes, multiple sclerosis and other serious conditions were also excluded. A scan of the medical literature for medication-related VIIP-like adverse events was used to create a list of suspect medications. These medications, as well as certain medications used frequently by ISS crew, were used to query the database. Queries for use of suspected medications were run, and the nature of the symptoms reported in those cases were tabulated. Symptoms searched in the FDA AERS were chosen to include the typical symptoms noted in crewmembers with VIIP. Vision symptoms searched were: visual acuity reduced, visual impairment, and vitreous floaters. Pressure changes included: abnormal sensation in eye, intracranial pressure increased, intraocular pressure increased, optic neuritis, optic neuropathy, and papilloedema. Limited demographic information is included with the FDA AERS; relevant data were also sorted by age and sex from each report. RESULTS Steroid-containing oral contraceptives had the highest number of reports associated with vision (n=166) and pressure symptoms (n=54). Corticosteroid-containing medications were also high; prednisone, for example, had 137 reports of vision issues and 79 of pressure issues. Pain relievers were also a medication class with vision and pressure-related adverse events reported. Common over-the-counter medications such as acetaminophen, aspirin and ibuprofen each had multiple reports for both vision and pressure symptoms. Antimicrobial medications ciprofloxacin and diflucan were also associated with a number of vision and pressure-related AERS. Unexpectedly, pseudoephedrine and promethazine were mentioned in fewer than 20 reports each over the 3.5 years of data examined. The FDA AERS represents a wealth of data, but there are several limitations to its use. The data are entered by the public or medical professionals, but are not checked for accuracy or completeness and may even be entered multiple times. The causal relationship between a particular adverse event and a particular medication is not tested. The cases represent a broad spectrum of demographics, occupations, and health histories, and thus do not model the astronaut population well. There is no information on the frequency of use of a medication for comparison purposes; it is not possible to assign a rate for any particular adverse event. Nonetheless, there are compelling trends. Use of corticosteroid-containing medications, pain relievers (even over-the-counter), and oral contraceptives were associated with higher numbers of vision- or intracranial pressure-related adverse events. In general, there were more vision problems than pressure problems reported. Certain medications that were once suspected of playing a role in the crew VIIP syndrome, namely pseudoephedrine and promethazine, were found to have extremely low numbers of VIIP-like AERS in the FDA data. However, crew use of corticosteroid-containing medications and pain relievers may warrant additional investigation

Faust, K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Validation and Verification (V&V) of Safety-Critical Systems Operating Under Off-Nominal Conditions

Loss of control (LOC) remains one of the largest contributors to aircraft fatal accidents worldwide. Aircraft LOC accidents are highly complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or more often in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. Research is underway at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in the development of advanced onboard system technologies for preventing or recovering from loss of vehicle control and for assuring safe operation under off-nominal conditions associated with aircraft LOC accidents. The transition of these technologies into the commercial fleet will require their extensive validation and verification (V&V) and ultimate certification. The V&V of complex integrated systems poses highly significant technical challenges and is the subject of a parallel research effort at NASA. This chapter summarizes the V&V problem and presents a proposed process that could be applied to complex integrated safety-critical systems developed for preventing aircraft LOC accidents. A summary of recent research accomplishments in this effort is referenced.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Focal Gray Matter Plasticity as a Function of Long Duration Head Down Tilted Bed Rest: Preliminary Results

Long duration spaceflight (i.e., 22 days or longer) has been associated with changes in sensorimotor systems, resulting in difficulties that astronauts experience with posture control, locomotion, and manual control. The microgravity environment is an important causal factor for spaceflight induced sensorimotor changes. Whether these sensorimotor changes are solely related to peripheral changes from reduced vestibular stimulation, body unloading, body fluid shifts or that they may be related to structural and functional brain changes is yet unknown. However, a recent study reported associations between microgravity and flattening of the posterior eye globe and protrusion of the optic nerve [1] possibly as the result of increased intracranial pressure due to microgravity induced bodily fluid shifts [3]. Moreover, elevated intracranial pressure has been related to white matter microstructural damage [2]. Thus, it is possible that spaceflight may affect brain structure and thereby cognitive functioning. Long duration head down tilt bed rest has been suggested as an exclusionary analog to study microgravity effects on the sensorimotor system [4]. Bed rest mimics microgravity in body unloading and bodily fluid shifts. In consideration of the health and performance of crewmembers both in- and post-flight, we are conducting a prospective longitudinal 70-day bed rest study as an analog to investigate the effects of microgravity on brain structure [5]. Here we present results of the first six subjects. Six subjects were assessed at 12 and 7 days before-, at 7, 30, and ~70 days in-, and at 8 and 12 days post 70 days of bed rest at the NASA bed rest facility in UTMB, Galveston, TX, USA. At each time point structural MRI scans (i.e., high resolution T1-weighted imaging and Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI)) were obtained using a 3T Siemens scanner. Focal changes over time in gray matter density were assessed using the voxel based morphometry 8 (VBM8) toolbox under SPM. Longitudinal processing in VBM8 includes linear registration of each scan to the mean of the subject and subsequently transforming all scans in to MNI space by applying the warp from the mean subject to MNI to the individual gray matter segmentations. Modulation was applied so that all images represented the volume of the original structure in native space. Voxel wise analysis was carried out on the gray matter images after smoothing, using a flexible factorial design with family wise error correction. Focal changes in white matter microstructural integrity were assessed using tract based spatial statistics (TBSS) as part of FMRIB software library (FSL). TBSS registers all DTI scans to standard space. It subsequently creates a study specific white matter skeleton of the major white matter tracts. For each subject, for each DTI metric (i.e. fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), axial diffusivity (AD), and radial diffusivity (RD)), the maximum value in a line perpendicular to the skeleton tract is projected to the skeleton. Non-parametric permutation based t-tests and ANOVA's were used for voxel-wise comparison of the skeletons. For both VBM and TBSS, comparison of pre bed rest measurements did not show significant differences. VBM analysis revealed decreased gray matter density in bilateral areas including the frontal medial cortex, the insular cortex and the caudate (see Figure) from 'pre to in bed rest'. Over the same time period, there was an increase in gray matter density in the cerebellum, occipital-, and parietal cortex, including the precuneus (see Figure). The majority of these changes did not recover from 'during to post bed rest'. TBSS analysis did not reveal significant changes in white matter microstructural integrity after correction for multiple comparisons. Uncorrected analyses (p<.015) revealed an increase in RD in the cerebellum and brainstem from pre bed rest to the first week in bed rest that did not recover post bed rest. Extended bed rest, which is an analog for microgravity, can result in gray matter changes and potentially in microstructural white matter changes in areas that are important for neuro motor behavior and cognition. These changes did not recover at two weeks post bed rest. Whether the effects of bed rest wear off at longer times post bed rest, and if they are associated with behavior are important questions that warrant further research.

Koppelmans, V.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Preliminary Analysis of Aircraft Loss of Control Accidents: Worst Case Precursor Combinations and Temporal Sequencing

Aircraft loss of control (LOC) is a leading cause of fatal accidents across all transport airplane and operational classes, and can result from a wide spectrum of hazards, often occurring in combination. Technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery must therefore be effective under a wide variety of conditions and uncertainties, including multiple hazards, and their validation must provide a means of assessing system effectiveness and coverage of these hazards. This requires the definition of a comprehensive set of LOC test scenarios based on accident and incident data as well as future risks. This paper defines a comprehensive set of accidents and incidents over a recent 15 year period, and presents preliminary analysis results to identify worst-case combinations of causal and contributing factors (i.e., accident precursors) and how they sequence in time. Such analyses can provide insight in developing effective solutions for LOC, and form the basis for developing test scenarios that can be used in evaluating them. Preliminary findings based on the results of this paper indicate that system failures or malfunctions, crew actions or inactions, vehicle impairment conditions, and vehicle upsets contributed the most to accidents and fatalities, followed by inclement weather or atmospheric disturbances and poor visibility. Follow-on research will include finalizing the analysis through a team consensus process, defining future risks, and developing a comprehensive set of test scenarios with correlation to the accidents, incidents, and future risks. Since enhanced engineering simulations are required for batch and piloted evaluations under realistic LOC precursor conditions, these test scenarios can also serve as a high-level requirement for defining the engineering simulation enhancements needed for generating them.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Mars Atmospheric CO2 Condensation Above the North and South Poles as Revealed by Radio Occultation, Climate Sounder, and Laser Ranging Observations

We study the condensation of CO2 in Mars atmosphere using temperature profilesretrieved from radio occultation measurements from Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) as wellas the climate sounding instrument onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO),and detection of reflective clouds by the MGS Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA). Wefind 11 events in 1999 where MGS temperature profiles indicate CO2 condensation andMOLA simultaneously detects reflective clouds. We thus provide causal evidence thatMOLA non-ground returns are associated with CO2 condensation, which strongly indicatestheir nature being CO2 clouds. The MGS and MRO temperature profiles together revealthe seasonal expansion and shrinking of the area and the vertical extent of atmosphericsaturation. The occurrence rate of atmospheric saturation is maximized at high latitudes inthe middle of winter. The atmospheric saturation in the northern polar region exhibits moreintense seasonal variation than in the southern polar region. In particular, a shrinking ofsaturation area and thickness from LS 270 to 300 in 2007 is found; this is probablyrelated to a planet-encircling dust storm. Furthermore, we integrate the condensation areaand the condensation occurrence rate to estimate cumulative masses of CO2 condensatesdeposited onto the northern and southern seasonal polar caps. The precipitation flux isapproximated by the particle settling flux which is estimated using the impulse responses ofMOLA filter channels. With our approach, the total atmospheric condensation mass canbe estimated from these observational data sets with average particle size as the onlyfree parameter. By comparison with the seasonal polar cap masses inferred from thetime-varying gravity of Mars, our estimates indicate that the average condensate particleradius is 822 mm in the northern hemisphere and 413 mm in the southern hemisphere.Our multi-instrument data analysis provides new constraints on modeling the global climateof Mars.

MOLA↗

NASA NTRS2014

Advanced Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Flight Dynamics; Interim Results and Challenges

As part of the NASA Vehicle Systems Safety Technologies (VSST), Assuring Safe and Effective Aircraft Control Under Hazardous Conditions (Technical Challenge #3), an effort is underway within Boeing Research and Technology (BR&T) to address Advanced Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Flight Dynamics (VSST1-7). The scope of the effort is to develop and evaluate advanced multidisciplinary flight dynamics modeling techniques, including integrated uncertainties, to facilitate higher fidelity response characterization of current and future aircraft configurations approaching and during loss-of-control conditions. This approach is to incorporate multiple flight dynamics modeling methods for aerodynamics, structures, and propulsion, including experimental, computational, and analytical. Also to be included are techniques for data integration and uncertainty characterization and quantification. This research shall introduce new and updated multidisciplinary modeling and simulation technologies designed to improve the ability to characterize airplane response in off-nominal flight conditions. The research shall also introduce new techniques for uncertainty modeling that will provide a unified database model comprised of multiple sources, as well as an uncertainty bounds database for each data source such that a full vehicle uncertainty analysis is possible even when approaching or beyond Loss of Control boundaries. Methodologies developed as part of this research shall be instrumental in predicting and mitigating loss of control precursors and events directly linked to causal and contributing factors, such as stall, failures, damage, or icing. The tasks will include utilizing the BR&T Water Tunnel to collect static and dynamic data to be compared to the GTM extended WT database, characterizing flight dynamics in off-nominal conditions, developing tools for structural load estimation under dynamic conditions, devising methods for integrating various modeling elements into a real-time simulation capability, generating techniques for uncertainty modeling that draw data from multiple modeling sources, and providing a unified database model that includes nominal plus increments for each flight condition. This paper presents status of testing in the BR&T water tunnel and analysis of the resulting data and efforts to characterize these data using alternative modeling methods. Program challenges and issues are also presented.

Hyde, David C.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Focal Gray Matter Plasticity as a Function of Long Duration Head-down Tilt Bed Rest

Koppelmans, Vincent↗

NASA NTRS2014

Focal Gray Matter Plasticity as a Function of Long Duration Head-down Tilt Bed Rest

Long duration spaceflight (i.e., > or = 22 days) has been associated with changes in sensorimotor systems, resulting in difficulties that astronauts experience with posture control, locomotion, and manual control. The microgravity environment is an important causal factor for spaceflight induced sensorimotor changes. Whether these sensorimotor changes may be related to structural and functional brain changes is yet unknown. However, experimental studies revealed changes in the gray matter (GM) of the brain after simulated microgravity. Thus, it is possible that spaceflight may affect brain structure and thereby cognitive functioning and motor behavior. Long duration head-down tilt bed rest has been suggested as an exclusionary analog to study microgravity effects on the sensorimotor system. Bed rest mimics microgravity in body unloading and bodily fluid shifts. In consideration of the health and performance of crewmembers both in- and post-flight, we are conducting a prospective longitudinal 70-day bed rest study as an analog to investigate the effects of microgravity on the brain. VBM analysis revealed a progressive decrease from pre- to in- bed rest in GM volume in bilateral areas including the frontal medial cortex, the insular cortex and the caudate. Over the same time period, there was a progressive increase in GM volume in the cerebellum, occipital-, and parietal cortex, including the precuneus. The majority of these changes did not fully recover during the post-bed rest period. Analysis of lobular GM volumes obtained with BRAINS showed significantly increased volume from pre-bed rest to in-bed rest in GM of the parietal lobe and the third ventricle. Temporal GM volume at 70 days in bed rest was smaller than that at the first pre-bed rest measurement. Trend analysis showed significant positive linear and negative quadratic relationships between parietal GM and time, a positive linear relationship between third ventricle volume and time, and a negative linear relationship between cerebellar GM volume and time. FM performance improved from pre-bed rest session 1 to session 2. From the second pre-bed rest measure to the last-day-in-bed rest, there was a significant decrease in performance that only partially recovered post-bed rest. No significant association was observed between changes in brain volume and changes in functional mobility. Extended bed rest, which is an analog for microgravity, can result in local volumetric GM increase and decrease and adversely affect functional mobility. These changes in brain structure and performance were not related in this sample. Whether the effects of bed rest dissipate at longer times post-bed rest, and if they are associated with behavior are important questions that warrant further research including more subjects and longer follow-up times.

Koppelmans, V.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Forest Cover Associated with Improved Child Health and Nutrition: Evidence from the Malawi Demographic and Health Survey and Satellite Data

Healthy forests provide human communities with a host of important ecosystem services, including the provision of food, clean water, fuel, and natural medicines. Yet globally, about 13 million hectares of forests are lost every year, with the biggest losses in Africa and South America. As biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation due to deforestation continue at unprecedented rates, with concomitant loss of ecosystem services, impacts on human health remain poorly understood. Here, we use data from the 2010 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey, linked with satellite remote sensing data on forest cover, to explore and better understand this relationship. Our analysis finds that forest cover is associated with improved health and nutrition outcomes among children in Malawi. Children living in areas with net forest cover loss between 2000 and 2010 were 19% less likely to have a diverse diet and 29% less likely to consume vitamin A-rich foods than children living in areas with no net change in forest cover. Conversely, children living in communities with higher percentages of forest cover were more likely to consume vitamin A-rich foods and less likely to experience diarrhea. Net gain in forest cover over the 10-year period was associated with a 34% decrease in the odds of children experiencing diarrhea (P5.002). Given that our analysis relied on observational data and that there were potential unknown factors for which we could not account, these preliminary findings demonstrate only associations, not causal relationships, between forest cover and child health and nutrition outcomes. However, the findings raise concerns about the potential short- and long-term impacts of ongoing deforestation and ecosystem degradation on community health in Malawi, and they suggest that preventing forest loss and maintaining the ecosystems services of forests are important factors in improving human health and nutrition outcomes.

malawi↗

NASA NTRS2012

Quasi-periodic Fast-mode Wave Trains Within a Global EUV Wave and Sequential Transverse Oscillations Detected by SDO-AIA

We present the first unambiguous detection of quasi-periodic wave trains within the broad pulse of a global EUV wave (so-called EIT wave) occurring on the limb. These wave trains, running ahead of the lateral coronal mass ejection (CME) front of 2-4 times slower, coherently travel to distances greater than approximately solar radius/2 along the solar surface, with initial velocities up to 1400 kilometers per second decelerating to approximately 650 kilometers per second. The rapid expansion of the CME initiated at an elevated height of 110 Mm produces a strong downward and lateral compression, which may play an important role in driving the primary EUV wave and shaping its front forwardly inclined toward the solar surface. The wave trains have a dominant 2 minute periodicity that matches the X-ray flare pulsations, suggesting a causal connection. The arrival of the leading EUV wave front at increasing distances produces an uninterrupted chain sequence of deflections and/or transverse (likely fast kink mode) oscillations of local structures, including a flux-rope coronal cavity and its embedded filament with delayed onsets consistent with the wave travel time at an elevated (by approximately 50%) velocity within it. This suggests that the EUV wave penetrates through a topological separatrix surface into the cavity, unexpected from CME-caused magnetic reconfiguration. These observations, when taken together, provide compelling evidence of the fast-mode MHD wave nature of the primary (outer) fast component of a global EUV wave, running ahead of the secondary (inner) slow component of CME-caused restructuring.

Solar Corona↗

NASA NTRS2013

Prospective Safety Analysis and the Complex Aviation System

Fatal accident rates in commercial passenger aviation are at historic lows yet have plateaued and are not showing evidence of further safety advances. Modern aircraft accidents reflect both historic causal factors and new unexpected "Black Swan" events. The ever-increasing complexity of the aviation system, along with its associated technology and organizational relationships, provides fertile ground for fresh problems. It is important to take a proactive approach to aviation safety by working to identify novel causation mechanisms for future aviation accidents before they happen. Progress has been made in using of historic data to identify the telltale signals preceding aviation accidents and incidents, using the large repositories of discrete and continuous data on aircraft and air traffic control performance and information reported by front-line personnel. Nevertheless, the aviation community is increasingly embracing predictive approaches to aviation safety. The "prospective workshop" early assessment tool described in this paper represents an approach toward this prospective mindset-one that attempts to identify the future vectors of aviation and asks the question: "What haven't we considered in our current safety assessments?" New causation mechanisms threatening aviation safety will arise in the future because new (or revised) systems and procedures will have to be used under future contextual conditions that have not been properly anticipated. Many simulation models exist for demonstrating the safety cases of new operational concepts and technologies. However the results from such models can only be as valid as the accuracy and completeness of assumptions made about the future context in which the new operational concepts and/or technologies will be immersed. Of course that future has not happened yet. What is needed is a reasonably high-confidence description of the future operational context, capturing critical contextual characteristics that modulate both the likelihood of occurrence of hazards, and the likelihood that those hazards will lead to negative safety events. Heuristics extracted from scenarios, questionnaires, and observed trends from scanning the aviation horizon may be helpful in capturing those future changes in a way conducive to safety assessment. What is also needed is a checklist of potential sources of emerging risk that arise from organizational features that are frequently overlooked. The ultimate goal is to develop a pragmatic, workable method for using descriptions of the future aviation context, to generate valid predictions of safety risks.

prospection↗

NASA NTRS2014

Impact-Induced Chondrule Deformation and Aqueous Alteration of CM2 Murchison

Deformed chondrules in CM2 Murchison have been found to define a prominent foliation [1,2] and lineation [3] in 3D using X-ray computed tomography (XCT). It has been hypothesized that chondrules in foliated chondrites deform by "squeezing" into surrounding pore space [4,5], a process that also likely removes primary porosity [6]. However, shock stage classification based on olivine extinction in Murchison is consistently low (S1-S2) [4-5,7] implying that significant intracrystalline plastic deformation of olivine has not occurred. One objective of our study is therefore to determine the microstructural mechanisms and phases that are accommodating the impact stress and resulting in relative displacements within the chondrules. Another question regarding impact deformation in Murchison is whether it facilitated aqueous alteration as has been proposed for the CMs which generally show a positive correlation between degree of alteration and petrofabric strength [7,2]. As pointed out by [2], CM Murchison represents a unique counterpoint to this correlation: it has a strong petrofabric but a relatively low degree of aqueous alteration. However, Murchison may not represent an inconsistency to the proposed causal relationship between impact and alteration, if it can be established that the incipient aqueous alteration post-dated chondrule deformation. Methods: Two thin sections from Murchison sample USNM 5487 were cut approximately perpendicular to the foliation and parallel to lineation determined by XCT [1,3] and one section was additionally polished for EBSD. Using a combination of optical petrography, SEM, EDS, and EBSD several chondrules were characterized in detail to: determine phases, find microstructures indicative of strain, document the geometric relationships between grain-scale microstructures and the foliation and lineation direction, and look for textural relationships of alteration minerals (tochilinite and Mg-Fe serpentine) that indicate timing of their formation relative to deformation event(s). Preliminary Results: Deformed chondrules are dominated by forsterite and clinoenstatite with lesser amounts of Fe-Mg serpentine, sulfides, and low calcium pyroxene. Olivine grains are commonly fractured but generally show sharp optical extinction. The pyroxene, in contrast, is not only fractured but also often displays undulose extinction. In addition, the clinoenstatite is frequently twinned but it is unclear whether the twins are the result of mechanical deformation or inversion from protoenstatite [8]. EBSD work is currently ongoing to determine if areas of higher crystallographic strain can be imaged and mapped, and to determine the pyroxene twin orientations. In regards to alteration, we have found evidence for post-deformation formation of tochilinite and Mg-Fe serpentine indicating that aqueous alteration has indeed post-dated the deformation of the chondrules.

Hanna, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Climate Change and Vector Borne Diseases on NASA Langley Research Center

Increasing global temperature, weather patterns with above average storm intensities, and higher sea levels have been identified as phenomena associated with global climate change. As a causal system, climate change could contribute to vector borne diseases in humans. Vectors of concern originate from the vicinity of Langley Research Center include mosquitos and ticks that transmit disease that originate regionally, nationwide, or from outside the US. Recognizing changing conditions, vector borne diseases propagate under climate change conditions, and understanding the conditions in which they may exist or propagate, presents opportunities for monitoring their progress and mitigating their potential impacts through communication, continued monitoring, and adaptation. Personnel comprise a direct and fundamental support to NASA mission success, continuous and improved understanding of climatic conditions, and the resulting consequence of disease from these conditions, helps to reduce risk in terrestrial space technologies, ground operations, and space research. This research addresses conditions which are attributed to climatic conditions which promote environmental conditions conducive to the increase of disease vectors. This investigation includes evaluation of local mosquito population count and rainfall data for statistical correlation and identification of planning recommendations unique to LaRC, other NASA Centers to assess adaptation approaches, Center-level planning strategies.

Cole, Stuart K.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Exercise Effects on the Course of Gray Matter Changes Over 70 Days of Bed Rest

Long duration spaceflight affects posture control, locomotion, and manual control. The microgravity environment is an important causal factor for spaceflight induced sensorimotor changes through direct effects on peripheral changes that result from reduced vestibular stimulation and body unloading. Effects of microgravity on sensorimotor function have been investigated on earth using bed rest studies. Long duration bed rest serves as a space-flight analogue because it mimics microgravity in body unloading and bodily fluid shifts. It has been hypothesized that the cephalad fluid shift that has been observed in microgravity could potentially affect central nervous system function and structure, and thereby indirectly affect sensorimotor or cognitive functioning. Preliminary results of one of our ongoing studies indeed showed that 70 days of long duration head down-tilt bed rest results in focal changes in gray matter volume from pre-bed rest to various time points during bed rest. These gray matter changes that could reflect fluid shifts as well as neuroplasticity were related to decrements in motor skills such as maintenance of equilibrium. In consideration of the health and performance of crewmembers both inand post-flight we are currently conducting a study that investigates the potential preventive effects of exercise on gray matter and motor performance changes that we observed over the course of bed rest. Numerous studies have shown beneficial effects of aerobic exercise on brain structure and cognitive performance in healthy and demented subjects over a large age range. We therefore hypothesized that an exercise intervention in bed rest could potentially mitigate or prevent the effects of bed rest on the central nervous system. Here we present preliminary outcomes of our study.

Koppelmans, V.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Reply to Stone Et Al.: Human-Made Role in Local Temperature Extremes

Stone et al. find that their analysis is unable to show a causal relation of local temperature anomalies, such as in Texas in 2011, with global warming. It was because of limitations in such local analyses that we reframed the problem in our report, separating the task of attribution of the causes of global warming from the task of quantifying changes in the likelihood of extreme local temperature anomalies.

tropical regions↗

NASA NTRS2014

Analysis and Prediction of Weather Impacted Ground Stop Operations

When the air traffic demand is expected to exceed the available airport's capacity for a short period of time, Ground Stop (GS) operations are implemented by Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Traffic Flow Management (TFM). The GS requires departing aircraft meeting specific criteria to remain on the ground to achieve reduced demands at the constrained destination airport until the end of the GS. This paper provides a high-level overview of the statistical distributions as well as causal factors for the GSs at the major airports in the United States. The GS's character, the weather impact on GSs, GS variations with delays, and the interaction between GSs and Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) are investigated. The machine learning methods are used to generate classification models that map the historical airport weather forecast, schedule traffic, and other airport conditions to implemented GS/GDP operations and the models are evaluated using the cross-validations. This modeling approach produced promising results as it yielded an 85% overall classification accuracy to distinguish the implemented GS days from the normal days without GS and GDP operations and a 71% accuracy to differentiate the GS and GDP implemented days from the GDP only days.

Analysis↗

NASA NTRS2014

Theoretical Foundations of Remote Sensing for Glacier Assessment and Mapping

The international scientific community is actively engaged in assessing ice sheet and alpine glacier fluctuations at a variety of scales. The availability of stereoscopic, multitemporal, and multispectral satellite imagery from the optical wavelength regions of the electromagnetic spectrum has greatly increased our ability to assess glaciological conditions and map the cryosphere. There are, however, important issues and limitations associated with accurate satellite information extraction and mapping, as well as new opportunities for assessment and mapping that are all rooted in understanding the fundamentals of the radiation transfer cascade. We address the primary radiation transfer components, relate them to glacier dynamics and mapping, and summarize the analytical approaches that permit transformation of spectral variation into thematic and quantitative parameters. We also discuss the integration of satellite-derived information into numerical modeling approaches to facilitate understandings of glacier dynamics and causal mechanisms.

Remote Sensing↗