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NASA NTRS2006

NAS Demand Predictions, Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) Compared with Other Forecasts

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These resulting demand scenarios can be incorporated into future flight schedules, therefore providing a quantifiable demand for flights in the NAS for a range of futures. In addition, new future airline business scenarios are investigated that illustrate when direct flights can replace connecting flights and larger aircraft can be substituted, only when justified by demand.

Viken, Jeff↗

NASA NTRS2006

Utilizing Traveler Demand Modeling to Predict Future Commercial Flight Schedules in the NAS

Viken, Jeff↗

NASA NTRS2018

Biogeochemical Effects of Rising Atmospheric CO2 on Terrestrial and Ocean Systems

Rising carbon dioxide (CO2) has decreased seawater pH at long-term observing stations around the world, including in the open ocean north of Oahu, Hawaii, near Alaska's Aleutian Islands, the Gulf of Maine shore, and on Gray's Reef in the southeastern United States. This ocean acidification process has already affected some marine species and altered fundamental ecosystem processes, and further effects are likely. While atmospheric CO rises at approximately the same rate all over the globe, its non-climate effects on land vary depending on climate and dominant species. In terrestrial ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO concentrations are expected to increase plant photosynthesis, growth, and water-use efficiency, though these effects are reduced when nutrients, drought or other factors limit plant growth. Rising CO would likely change carbon storage and influence terrestrial hydrology and biogeochemical cycling, but concomitant effects on vegetation composition and nutrient feedbacks are challenging to predict, making decadal forecasts uncertain. Consequences of rising atmospheric CO are expected to include difficult-to-predict changes in the ecosystem services that terrestrial and ocean systems provide to humans. For instance, ocean acidification resulting from rising CO has decreased the supply of larvae that sustains commercial shellfish production in the northwestern United States. In addition, CO fertilization (increases) plus warming (decreases) are changing terrestrial crop yields. Continued persistence of uptake of carbon by the land and ocean is uncertain. Climate and environmental change create complex feedbacks to the carbon cycle and it is not clear how feedbacks modulate future effects of rising CO on carbon sinks. These are several mechanisms that could reduce future sink capacity.

Biogeochemical↗

NASA NTRS1993

Alveolar ventilation to perfusion heterogeneity and diffusion impairment in a mathematical model of gas exchange

This study describes a two-compartment model of pulmonary gas exchange in which alveolar ventilation to perfusion (VA/Q) heterogeneity and impairment of pulmonary diffusing capacity (D) are simultaneously taken into account. The mathematical model uses as input data measurements usually obtained in the lung function laboratory. It consists of two compartments and an anatomical shunt. Each compartment receives fractions of alveolar ventilation and blood flow. Mass balance equations and integration of Fick's law of diffusion are used to compute alveolar and blood O2 and CO2 values compatible with input O2 uptake and CO2 elimination. Two applications are presented. The first is a method to partition O2 and CO2 alveolar-arterial gradients into VA/Q and D components. The technique is evaluated in data of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The second is a theoretical analysis of the effects of blood flow variation in alveolar and blood O2 partial pressures. The results show the importance of simultaneous consideration of D to estimate VA/Q heterogeneity in patients with diffusion impairment. This factor plays an increasing role in gas alveolar-arterial gradients as severity of COPD increases. Association of VA/Q heterogeneity and D may produce an increase of O2 arterial pressure with decreasing QT which would not be observed if only D were considered. We conclude that the presented computer model is a useful tool for description and interpretation of data from COPD patients and for performing theoretical analysis of variables involved in the gas exchange process.

NASA Discipline Environmental Health↗

NASA NTRS2008

Contemporary Trends in the Acid-Base Status of the Two Acid-Sensitive Streams in Western Maryland

Recovery of streamwater acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) resulting from declines in regional acid deposition was examined using contemporary (1990-2005) data from two long-term monitoring stations located on the Appalachian Plateau in western Maryland, U.S. Two computational methods were used to estimate daily, monthly, and annual fluxes and discharge-weighted concentrations of ANC, sulfate, nitrate, and base cations over the period of record, and two statistical methods were used to evaluate long-term trends in fluxes and concentrations. The methods used to estimate concentrations, as well as the, statistical techniques, produced very similar results, underlining the robustness of the identified trends. We found clear evidence that streamwater sulfate concentrations have declined at an average rate of about 3 (microns)eq L(exp -1) yr(exp -1) at the two sites due to a 34% reduction in wet atmospheric sulfur deposition. Trends in nitrate concentrations appear to be related to other watershed factors, especially forest disturbance. The best evidence of recovery is based on a doubling of ANC (from 21 to 42 (microns)eq L(exp -1) at the more acid-sensitive site over the 16-year period. A slowing, or possible reversal, in the sulfate, nitrate, and SBC trends is evident in our data and may portend a decline in the rate of--or end to--further recovery.

Eshleman, Keith N.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Fatigue, Schedules, Sleep, and Sleepiness in U.S. Commercial Pilots During COVID-19

Introduction: COVID-19 has had a significant impact on the aviation industry. While reduced flying capacity may intuitively translate to reduced fatigue risk by way of fewer flights and duty hours, the actual impact of the pandemic on pilot fatigue is unknown. Methods: We surveyed US commercial airline pilots in late 2020 (n = 669) and early 2021 (n = 156) to assess the impact of COVID-19 on schedules and fatigue during the pandemic. Results: Overall, pilots reported reduced flight and duty hours compared to pre-pandemic. Average sleep on workdays was slightly shorter in late 2020 (6.88 h) and recovered to pre-pandemic levels in early 2021 (6.95 h). Similarly, the frequency of sleepiness on days off and in-flight increased in late 2020, with 54% of pilots reporting an increase in in-flight sleepiness, then returned to pre-pandemic levels in early 2021. The use of in-flight sleepiness countermeasures remained the same across assessed time points. Pilots highlighted several factors which impacted their sleep and job performance, including limited access to nutritional food during duty days and layovers, reduced access to exercise facilities during layovers, increased stress due to job insecurity and health concerns, increased distractions and workload, and changes to scheduling. Discussion: Despite a reduction in flights and duty days, COVID-19 led to increased sleepiness on days off and in-flight, potentially due to the negative impact of lack of access to essential needs and heightened stress on sleep. Operators need to monitor the change in these COVID-19 related risks as the industry returns to full service.

sleep↗

NASA NTRS1999

Technology Assessment of High Capacity Data Storage Systems: Can We Avoid a Data Survivability Crisis?

In a recent address at the California Science Center in Los Angeles, Vice President Al Gore articulated a Digital Earth Vision. That vision spoke to developing a multi-resolution, three-dimensional visual representation of the planet into which we can roam and zoom into vast quantities of embedded geo-referenced data. The vision was not limited to moving through space, but also allowing travel over a time-line, which can be set for days, years, centuries, or even geological epochs. A working group of Federal Agencies, developing a coordinated program to implement the Vice President's vision, developed the definition of the Digital Earth as a visual representation of our planet that enables a person to explore and interact with the vast amounts of natural and cultural geo-referenced information gathered about the Earth. One of the challenges identified by the agencies was whether the technology existed that would be available to permanently store and deliver all the digital data that enterprises might want to save for decades and centuries. Satellite digital data is growing by Moore's Law as is the growth of computer generated data. Similarly, the density of digital storage media in our information-intensive society is also increasing by a factor of four every three years. The technological bottleneck is that the bandwidth for transferring data is only growing at a factor of four every nine years. This implies that the migration of data to viable long-term storage is growing more slowly. The implication is that older data stored on increasingly obsolete media are at considerable risk if they cannot be continuously migrated to media with longer life times. Another problem occurs when the software and hardware systems for which the media were designed are no longer serviced by their manufacturers. Many instances exist where support for these systems are phased out after mergers or even in going out of business. In addition, survivability of older media can suffer from physical breakdown of components (e.g. tapes simply lose their magnetic properties after a long time in storage). As a result, a potential data survivability crisis is emerging. The scale of the crisis is comparable to that facing the Social Security System. Sometime in one or two decades, the exponential growth of data will become so great that many enterprises will not be able to migrate through their data to more permanent media during the lifetime of the media on which it resides. This will result in significant losses of data and their resultant impacts. To avoid this crisis, we need to plan and devote greater financial and intellectual resources are needed for the development and refinement of new storage media and migration technologies in order to preserve all data any organization determines worth saving permanently. This talk will explore technological solutions and suggested recommendations to address this technological data crisis.

Halem, Milton↗

NASA NTRS2005

Remotely Operated Aircraft (ROA) Impact on the National Airspace System (NAS) Work Package, 2005: Composite Report on FAA Flight Plan and Operational Evaluation Plan. Version 7.0

The purpose of this document is to present the findings that resulted from a high-level analysis and evaluation of the following documents: (1) The OEP (Operational Evolution Plan) Version 7 -- a 10-year plan for operational improvements to increase capacity and efficiency in U.S. air travel and transport and other use of domestic airspace. The OEP is the FAA commitment to operational improvements. It is outcome driven, with clear lines of accountability within FAA organizations. The OEP concentrates on operational solutions and integrates safety, certification, procedures, staffing, equipment, avionics and research; (2) The Draft Flight Plan 2006 through 2010 -- a multi-year strategic effort, setting a course for the FAA through 2001, to provide the safest and most efficient air transportation system in the world; (3) The NAS System Architecture Version 5 -- a blueprint for modernizing the NAS and improving NAS services and capabilities through the year 2015; and (4) The NAS-SR-1000 System Requirements Specification (NASSRS) -- a compilation of requirements which describe the operational capabilities for the NAS. The analysis is particularly focused on examining the documents for relevance to existing and/or planned future UAV operations. The evaluation specifically focuses on potential factors that could materially affect the development of a commercial ROA industry, such as: (1) Design limitations of the CNS/ATM system, (2) Human limitations, The information presented was taken from program specifications or program office lead personnel.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2018

Soil Water Content Effects on Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange and Actual Evapotranspiration in a Mediterranean Semiarid Savanna of Central Chile

Biosphere-atmosphere water and carbon fluxes depend on ecosystem structure, and their magnitudes and seasonal behavior are driven by environmental and biological factors. We studied the seasonal behavior of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE), Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), Ecosystem Respiration (RE), and actual evapotranspiration (ETa) obtained by eddy covariance measurements during two years in a Mediterranean Acacia savanna ecosystem (Acacia caven) in Central Chile. The annual carbon balance was −53 g C/sq. m in 2011 and −111 g C/sq. m in 2012, showing that the ecosystem acts as a net sink of CO2, notwithstanding water limitations on photosynthesis observed in this particularly dry period. Total annual ETa was of 128 mm in 2011 and 139 mm in 2012. Both NEE and ETa exhibited strong seasonality with peak values recorded in the winter season (July to September), as a result of ecosystem phenology, soil water content and rainfall occurrence. Consequently, the maximum carbon assimilation rate occurred in wintertime. Results show that soil water content is a major driver of GPP and RE, defining their seasonal patterns and the annual carbon assimilation capacity of the ecosystem, and also modulating the effect that solar radiation and air temperature have on NEE components at shorter time scales.

Meza, Francisco J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Controller Inhibition of Automated Conflict Resolutions in a Maximum NextGen Condition

With the continued projection of increases in air traffic density, operations in the National Airspace System are expected to exceed human capabilities in the near future. In order to address the bottleneck of human workload capacity, highly automated safety-critical systems are under development to support air traffic controllers. A human-in-the-loop experiment examined controllers transition through four NextGen automation stages: Current-Day, Minimum, Moderate, and Maximum. Maximum NextGen simulated a fully automated environment where the automation was responsible for detecting and resolving conflicts within simulation parameters in high-density airspace. By allocating these tasks to the automation, the controllers task changed. The human moved to primarily a supervisory position- typically only regaining control over separation assurance tasks during conflict situations deferred by the automation. While tasks were allocated a-priori between the controller and automated agent, controllers maintained authority to inhibit the automation from interacting with particular aircraft. Preliminary work is complete, where significant differences were found in inhibition frequency between simulation participants. However, the contexts in which the controllers inhibited the automation, and their reasons for doing so, remain unclear. This analysis attempts to identity factors contributing to human controllers inhibition of the automation in the Maximum NextGen condition.

adaptable automation↗

NASA NTRS2005

High-Temperature, High-Load-Capacity Radial Magnetic Bearing

A radial heteropolar magnetic bearing capable of operating at a temperature as high as 1,000 F (=540 C) has been developed. This is a prototype of bearings for use in gas turbine engines operating at temperatures and speeds much higher than can be withstood by lubricated rolling-element bearings. It is possible to increase the maximum allowable operating temperatures and speeds of rolling-element bearings by use of cooling-air systems, sophisticated lubrication systems, and rotor-vibration- damping systems that are subsystems of the lubrication systems, but such systems and subsystems are troublesome. In contrast, a properly designed radial magnetic bearing can suspend a rotor without contact, and, hence, without need for lubrication or for cooling. Moreover, a magnetic bearing eliminates the need for a separate damping system, inasmuch as a damping function is typically an integral part of the design of the control system of a magnetic bearing. The present high-temperature radial heteropolar magnetic bearing has a unique combination of four features that contribute to its suitability for the intended application: 1. The wires in its electromagnet coils are covered with an insulating material that does not undergo dielectric breakdown at high temperature and is pliable enough to enable the winding of the wires to small radii. 2. The processes used in winding and potting of the coils yields a packing factor close to 0.7 . a relatively high value that helps in maximizing the magnetic fields generated by the coils for a given supplied current. These processes also make the coils structurally robust. 3. The electromagnets are of a modular C-core design that enables replacement of components and semiautomated winding of coils. 4. The stator is mounted in such a manner as to provide stable support under radial and axial thermal expansion and under a load as large as 1,000 lb (.4.4 kN).

Provenza, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2015

Computational Modeling Using OpenSim to Simulate a Squat Exercise Motion

Long duration space travel to destinations such as Mars or an asteroid will expose astronauts to extended periods of reduced gravity. Astronauts will use an exercise regime for the duration of the space flight to minimize the loss of bone density, muscle mass and aerobic capacity that occurs during exposure to a reduced gravity environment. Since the area available in the spacecraft for an exercise device is limited and gravity is not present to aid loading, compact resistance exercise device prototypes are being developed. Since it is difficult to rigorously test these proposed devices in space flight, computational modeling provides an estimation of the muscle forces, joint torques and joint loads during exercise to gain insight on the efficacy to protect the musculoskeletal health of astronauts.

Human Factors Engineering↗

NASA NTRS1990

Space Station Freedom altitude strategy

The Space Station Freedom (SSF) altitude strategy provides guidelines and assumptions to determine an altitude profile for Freedom. The process for determining an altitude profile incorporates several factors such as where the Space Shuttle will rendezvous with the SSF, when reboosts must occur, and what atmospheric conditions exist causing decay. The altitude strategy has an influence on all areas of SSF development and mission planning. The altitude strategy directly affects the micro-gravity environment for experiments, propulsion and control system sizing, and Space Shuttle delivery manifests. Indirectly the altitude strategy influences almost every system and operation within the Space Station Program. Evolution of the SSF altitude strategy has been a very dynamic process over the past few years. Each altitude strategy in turn has emphasized a different consideration. Examples include a constant Space Shuttle rendezvous altitude for mission planning simplicity, or constant micro-gravity levels with its inherent emphasis on payloads, or lifetime altitudes to provide a safety buffer to loss of control conditions. Currently a new altitude strategy is in development. This altitude strategy will emphasize Space Shuttle delivery optimization. Since propellant is counted against Space Shuttle payload-to-orbit capacity, lowering the rendezvous altitude will not always increase the net payload-to-orbit, since more propellant would be required for reboost. This altitude strategy will also consider altitude biases to account for Space Shuttle launch slips and an unexpected worsening of atmospheric conditions. Safety concerns will define a lower operational altitude limit, while radiation levels will define upper altitude constraints. The evolution of past and current SSF altitude strategies and the development of a new altitude strategy which focuses on operational issues as opposed to design are discussed.

Mcdonald, Brian M.↗

NASA NTRS2007

NASA Bluetooth Wireless Communications

NASA has been interested in wireless communications for many years, especially when the crew size of the International Space Station (ISS) was reduced to two members. NASA began a study to find ways to improve crew efficiency to make sure the ISS could be maintained with limited crew capacity and still be a valuable research testbed in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO). Currently the ISS audio system requires astronauts to be tethered to the audio system, specifically a device called the Audio Terminal Unit (ATU). Wireless communications would remove the tether and allow astronauts to freely float from experiment to experiment without having to worry about moving and reconnecting the associated cabling or finding the space equivalent of an extension cord. A wireless communication system would also improve safety and reduce system susceptibility to Electromagnetic Interference (EMI). Safety would be improved because a crewmember could quickly escape a fire while maintaining communications with the ground and other crewmembers at any location. In addition, it would allow the crew to overcome the volume limitations of the ISS ATU. This is especially important to the Portable Breathing Apparatus (PBA). The next generation of space vehicles and habitats also demand wireless attention. Orion will carry up to six crewmembers in a relatively small cabin. Yet, wireless could become a driving factor to reduce launch weight and increase habitable volume. Six crewmembers, each tethered to a panel, could result in a wiring mess even in nominal operations. In addition to Orion, research is being conducted to determine if Bluetooth is appropriate for Lunar Habitat applications.

Miller, Robert D.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Ion Exchange Technology Development in Support of the Urine Processor Assembly

The urine processor assembly (UPA) on the International Space Station (ISS) recovers water from urine via a vacuum distillation process. The distillation occurs in a rotating distillation assembly (DA) where the urine is heated and subjected to sub-ambient pressure. As water is removed, the original organics, salts, and minerals in the urine become more concentrated and result in urine brine. Eventually, water removal will concentrate the urine brine to super saturation of individual constituents, and precipitation occurs. Under typical UPA DA operating conditions, calcium sulfate or gypsum is the first chemical to precipitate in substantial quantity. During preflight testing with ground urine, the UPA achieved 85% water recovery without precipitation. However, on ISS, it is possible that crewmember urine can be significantly more concentrated relative to urine from ground donors. As a result, gypsum precipitated in the DA when operating at water recovery rates at or near 85%, causing the failure and subsequent re14 NASA Tech Briefs, September 2013 placement of the DA. Later investigations have demonstrated that an excess of calcium and sulfate will cause precipitation at water recovery rates greater than 70%. The source of the excess calcium is likely physiological in nature, via crewmembers' bone loss, while the excess sulfate is primarily due to the sulfuric acid component of the urine pretreatment. To prevent gypsum precipitation in the UPA, the Precipitation Prevention Project (PPP) team has focused on removing the calcium ion from pretreated urine, using ion exchange resins as calcium removal agents. The selectivity and effectiveness of ion exchange resins are determined by such factors as the mobility of the liquid phase through the polymer matrix, the density of functional groups, type of functional groups bound to the matrix, and the chemical characteristics of the liquid phase (pH, oxidation potential, and ionic strength). Previous experience with ion exchange resins has demonstrated that the most effective implementation for an ion exchange resin is a cartridge, or column, in which the resin is contained. Based on the results of equilibrium and sub-scale dynamic column testing, a possible solution for mitigating the calcium precipitation issue on the ISS has been identified. From an original pool of 13 ion exchange resins, two candidates have been identified that demonstrate substantial calcium removal on the sub-scale. The dramatic reduction in resin performance from published calcium uptake demonstrates the need for thorough evaluation of resins at the low pH and strong oxidizing environment present in the UPA. Chemical variations in the influent (calcium concentrations and pretreatment dosing) appear to have a noticeable impact on the calcium capacity of the resin. Low calcium concentrations and high pretreatment dosing will likely result in a decrease in calcium capacity. Conversely, low pre trea t - ment dosing will likely result in an increase in calcium capacity. In contrast, investigations at a variety of flow rates, length-to-diameter ratios, resin volumes, and flow regimes (continuous versus pulsed) show that changes in physical parameters do not have substantial impacts on resin performance in the very low specific velocity ranges of interest. This result is particularly useful because most commercial applications at higher specific velocities do show a relatively strong relationship between flow and capacity. The lack of a strong relationship will allow more flexibility in the implementation of an ion exchange bed for flight. Verification of subscale tests with flight-scale resin beds is recommended prior to implementation in the on-orbit UPA.

Mitchell, Julie↗

NASA NTRS2005

Space Shuttle Hot Cabin Emergency Responses

Methods: Human thermal tolerance, countermeasures, and thermal model data were reviewed and compared to existing shuttle ECS failure temperature and humidity profiles for each failure mode. Increases in core temperature associated with cognitive impairment was identified, as was metabolic heat generation of crewmembers, temperature monitoring, and communication capabilities after partial power-down and other limiting factors. Orbiter landing strategies and a hydration and salt replacement protocol were developed to put wheels on deck in each failure mode prior to development of significant cognitive impairment or collapse of crewmembers. Thermal tradeoffs for use of the Advanced Crew Escape Suit (ACES), Liquid Cooling Garment, integrated G-suit and Quick Don Mask were examined. candidate solutions involved trade-offs or conflicts with cabin oxygen partial pressure limits, system power-downs to limit heat generation, risks of alternate and emergency landing sites or compromise of Mode V-VIII scenarios. Results: Rehydration and minimized cabin workloads are required in all failure modes. Temperature/humidity profiles increase rapidly in two failure modes, and deorbit is recommended without the ACES, ICU and g-suit. This latter configuration limits several shuttle approach and landing escape modes and requires communication modifications. Additional data requirements were identified and engineering simulations were recommended to develop more current shuttle temperature and humidity profiles. Discussion: After failure of the shuttle ECS, there is insufficient cooling capacity of the ACES to protect crewmembers from rising cabin temperature and humidity. The LCG is inadequate for cabin temperatures above 76 F. Current shuttle future life policy makes it unlikely that major engineering upgrades necessary to address this problem will occur.

Stepaniak, P.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Robotic vision techniques for space operations

Automation and robotics for space applications are being pursued for increased productivity, enhanced reliability, increased flexibility, higher safety, and for the automation of time-consuming tasks and those activities which are beyond the capacity of the crew. One of the key functional elements of an automated robotic system is sensing and perception. As the robotics era dawns in space, vision systems will be required to provide the key sensory data needed for multifaceted intelligent operations. In general, the three-dimensional scene/object description, along with location, orientation, and motion parameters will be needed. In space, the absence of diffused lighting due to a lack of atmosphere gives rise to: (a) high dynamic range (10(exp 8)) of scattered sunlight intensities, resulting in very high contrast between shadowed and specular portions of the scene; (b) intense specular reflections causing target/scene bloom; and (c) loss of portions of the image due to shadowing and presence of stars, Earth, Moon, and other space objects in the scene. In this work, developments for combating the adverse effects described earlier and for enhancing scene definition are discussed. Both active and passive sensors are used. The algorithm for selecting appropriate wavelength, polarization, look angle of vision sensors is based on environmental factors as well as the properties of the target/scene which are to be perceived. The environment is characterized on the basis of sunlight and other illumination incident on the target/scene and the temperature profiles estimated on the basis of the incident illumination. The unknown geometrical and physical parameters are then derived from the fusion of the active and passive microwave, infrared, laser, and optical data.

Krishen, Kumar↗

NASA NTRS2020

Unprecedented Drought Challenges for Texas Water Resources in a Changing Climate: What Do Researchers and Stakeholders Need to Know?

Long‐range water planning is complicated by factors that are rapidly changing in the 21st century, including climate, population, and water use. Here, we analyze climate factors and drought projections for Texas as an example of a diverse society straddling an aridity gradient to examine how the projections can best serve water stakeholder needs. We find that climate models are robust in projecting drying of summer‐season soil moisture and decreasing reservoir supplies for both the eastern and western portions of Texas during the 21st century. Further, projections indicate drier conditions during the latter half of the 21st century than even the most arid centuries of the last 1,000 years that included megadroughts. To illustrate how accounting for drought non‐stationarity may increase water resiliency, we consider generalized case studies involving four key stakeholder groups: agricultural producers, large surface water suppliers, small groundwater management districts, and regional water planning districts. We also examine an example of customized climate information being used as input to long‐range water planning. We find that while stakeholders value the quantitative capability of climate model outputs, more specific climate‐related information better supports resilience planning across multiple stakeholder groups. New suites of tools could provide necessary capacity for both short and long‐term, stakeholder‐specific adaptive planning.

drought↗