Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “capacity change”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Linking Land Use Changes to Surface Water Quality Variability in Lake Victoria: Some Insights From Remote Sensing (GC41B-1101)

Various land use changes driven by urbanization, conversion of grasslands and woodlands into farmlands, intensification of agricultural practices, deforestation, land fragmentation and degradation are taking place in Africa. In Kenya, agriculture is the main driver of land use conversions. The impacts of these land use changes are observable in land cover maps, and eventually in the hydrological systems. Reduction or change of natural vegetation cover types increases the speed of surface runoff and reduces water and nutrient retention capacities. This can lead to high nutrient inputs into lakes, resulting in eutrophication, siltation and infestation of floating aquatic vegetation. To assess if changes in land use could be contributing to increased phytoplankton blooms and sediment loads into Lake Victoria, we analyzed land use land cover data from Landsat, as well as surface chlorophyll-a and total suspended matter from MODIS-Aqua sensor.

water quality↗
NASA NTRS2004

Winds, Water Budgets and Stable Isotopes in Tropical Cyclones using TRMM and QUICKSCAT

Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Changes in its concentration and distribution are controlled by the hydrologic cycle. Because of its capacity to absorb and emit long wave radiation, release latent heat during condensation in storms and reflect short wave radiation when clouds form it has a major impact on Global climate change. The stable isotope ratios of water are H20 H2l6O and H0 H2l6O. These ratios change whenever water undergoes a phase change. They also change in both rain and water vapor whenever an air parcel is exposed to rain. In addition the relative changes in the two ratios differ as a &nction of the relative humidity. In short, the stable isotope ratios in water vapor in the atmosphere contain an integrated history of the processes affecting the concentration and distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere. Therefore the measurement and interpretation of changes in these stable isotope ratios are a powerful tool matched by no other method in tracing the transport history of water in the atmosphere. Our initial studies under this grant focused on the changes of the stable isotope ratios of precipitation and water vapor in tropical cyclones. The changes in time and space were found to be very large and to trace the transport of water in the storms reflecting changes in basic structural features. Because the stable isotope ratios of rains from tropical cyclones are so low flooding associated with land falling tropical cyclones introduces a negative isotopic spike into the coastal surface waters. In addition the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the vicinity of tropical cyclones is anomalously low. This suggests that carbonate shelled organisms such as ostracoda living in coastal waters have the potential to record the isotopic spike and thereby provide a long term record of tropical storm activity in sediment cores containing fossil shells. Likewise, tree rings in coastal environments offer a similar potential. We have analyzed the oxygen isotopic composition of ostrcoda shells formed in the floodwaters of Tropical Storm Allison (2001) and discovered the negative isotopic 1 16 spike. Because we had learned that storm activity has a major impact on the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the tropics and sub-tropics we decided to analyze the isotopic compositions of water vapor in different locations in the tropics. We did this in Puerto Escondido, Mexico in July 1998, near Kwajalein Island in the Pacific in 1999 as part of a TRMM summer field program and in 2001 in Key West, Florida as part of the CAMEX 4 summer field program. Our isotopic studies along with our earlier tropical cyclone studies showed that the low isotopic ratios in water vapor induced by exposure to rains the storms persisted for 48 hours often far away from the original storm site. We also noted that positive isotopic spikes were introduced into atmospheric water vapor if winds were high and extensive sea spray was present. These findings have a significant impact on the interpretation of the stable isotope studies of tropical ice cores found in the high mountain regions of the tropics. The assumption made in interpreting the ice core record is that the source water vapor evaporated from the sea surface is in near isotopic equilibrium with the seawater and undergoes a decrease during its transport that reflects the change in temperature from the sea surface to the site of the ice core. Because an additional isotopic depletion occurs at the sea surface source area that depends on the intensity, duration and size of the tropical rain system the isotopic variations found in the ice cores must take into account changes in past storm activity in the tropics. These systems must be an important source of water vapor to the ice cores because they charge the troposphere with water vapor to a far greater vertical height than evaporation in quiescent regions. Finally, an interest in increased heat transfer in thnterior of tropical cyclones resulting from greater amounts of sea spray is a topic of considerable interest to the research community. Increases in sea spray may be related to rapid changes in the intensity of hurricanes, a feature of hurricanes that currently is very poorly forecast. Project CBLAST of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA is an active program that uses P3 research aircraft to evaluate this problem. An instrument has been designed and built at the University of Houston that will be placed on the P3 research aircraft during the 2004 hurricane season. It continuously measures the salt content of rain in hurricanes. Changes in the salt content of the rains should reflect the abundance of sea spray at the sea surface. In this way maps of sea spray intensity in hurricanes may be forthcoming. This should help computer modelers who simulate hurricanes to better understand the potential of changes in sea spray to change the intensity of hurricanes. The cost of designing, building and installing this instrument was borne largely by funding from this NASA grant. A list of presentations at national meetings and publications that were as the result of funding from this NASA grant are found in the report.

Lawrence, James R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Shifts in hydroclimatology of US megaregions in response to climate change

Most of the population and economic growth in the United States occurs in megaregions as the clustered metropolitan areas, whereas climate change may amplify negative impacts on water and natural resources. This study assesses shifts in regional hydroclimatology of fourteen US megaregions in response to climate change over the 21st century. Hydroclimatic projections were simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model driven by three downscaled climate models from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset to cover driest to wettest future conditions in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Shifts in the regional hydroclimatolgy and basin characteristics of US megaregions were represented as a combination of changes in the aridity and evaporative indices using the Budyko framework and Fu's equation. Changes in the climate types of US megaregions were estimated using the Fine Gaussian Support Vector Machine (SVM) method. The results indicate that Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco are more likely to experience less arid conditions with some shifts from Continental to Temperate climate type while the hydroclimatology of Houston may become drier with some shifts from Temperate to Continental climate type. Additionally, water yield is likely to decrease in Seattle. Change in the hydroclimatology of Denver and Phoenix highly depends on the selected climate model. However, the basin characteristics of Phoenix have the highest sensitivity to climate change. Overall, the hydroclimatic conditions of Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, Denver, and Houston have the highest sensitivity to climate change. Understanding of future shifts in hydroclimatology of megaregions can help decision-makers to attenuate negative consequences by implementing appropriate adaptation strategies, particularly in the water-scare megaregions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1997

Effect of Storage on Performance of Super Nickel-Cadmium Cells

A study was undertaken to examine the capacity maintenance features of SUPER nickel-cadmium cells when stored for extended periods to determine whether the features change when the same kinds of positive plates as that used in nickel-hydrogen cells are used, The cells maintained their capacity when stored at 0 C in the discharged state and at 0 C in the charged state by continuously trickle charging. There was a capacity loss when stored in the open-circuit condition at 28 C. A cycling test at 17% depth of discharge for 2400 cycles using cells stored at various conditions showed that cells maintained good end of discharge voltage regardless of their storage history. However, the EOD voltages of stored cells were lower by 10 mV compared to those of fresh cells. The capacity at the end of the cycling test decreased for the stored cells by 2-7 Ah. The storage related capacity loss is lower for SUPER Ni-Cd cells compared to that of Ni-H2 cells containing a hydrogen precharge. The results suggest the pivotal role of hydrogen pressure in the capacity loss phenomenon.

Vaidyanathan, Hari↗
DOE OSTI2023

In situ microscopy and spectroscopy characterization of microsized Sn anode for sodium-ion batteries

Microsized Sn is a promising anode material for sodium-ion batteries in terms of cost, specific capacity, and volumetric energy density, which however suffers from huge volume changes and rapid cell degradation upon cycling. Despite recent advances via nanostructured electrode design and interface engineering, the correlation between mechanical stability, solid-electrolyte interphase (SEI) and reaction kinetics/reversibility remains controversial and elusive. Here, in this work, by combining in situ scanning electron microcopy and X-ray absorption spectroscopy as well as X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, we have investigated the underlying electro-chemo-mechanical behavior and their coupling effects during charge/discharge of microsized Sn anode. Our results revealed that microsized Sn is pulverized into nanoparticles with simultaneous formation of numerous voids and pores upon the 1st charge/discharge, while the electrolytes composition plays a critical role on the consequent parasitic reactions and eventually the sodiation/de-sodiation reversibility. In contrast to carbonate-based electrolytes, ether-based electrolytes enabled formation of inorganic species dominated SEI with improved mechanical strength, thus leading to higher specific capacity and improved cycling stability. The present findings are crucial for future development of microsized anode materials for rechargeable batteries with high volumetric energy density.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coulombic Efficiency and Capacity Retention are Not Universal Descriptors of Cell Aging

Capacity and coulombic efficiency are often used to assess the performance of Li-ion batteries, under the assumption that these quantities can provide direct insights about the rate of electron consumption due to growth of the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI). Here, we show that electrode properties can actually change the amount of information about aging that can be directly retrieved from capacity measurements. During cycling of full-cells, only portions of the voltage profiles of the positive and negative electrodes are accessible, leaving a reservoir of cyclable Li + stored at both electrodes. The size and availability of this reservoir depends on the shape of the voltage profiles and accessing this extra Li + can offset some of the capacity that is consumed by the SEI. Consequently, capacity and efficiency measurements can, at times, severely underestimate the rate of side reactions experienced by the cell. We show, for example, that a same rate of SEI growth would cause faster capacity fade in LiFePO 4 than in NMC cells, and that the perceived effects of aging depend on testing variables such as depth of discharge. Simply measuring capacity may be insufficient to gauge the true extent of aging endured by Li-ion batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

U.S. Wind and Solar PV Supply Curves with Future Land-use Change

This dataset provides future supply curves representing the total resource potential for land-based wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the conterminous United States after accounting for the impact of land-use and land-cover change (LULC). We use LULC projections from 2010 to 2050 developed based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios. The LULC projections are subsequently fed into the renewable energy potential model (reV), which estimates total available wind and solar capacity after excluding non-developable land. Supply curves are provided for four IPCC scenarios in 2050: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. As a baseline, we also provide the supply curve from the B2 scenario in 2010. In addition to the supply curves, we also provide representative wind and solar generation profiles for each supply curve point. These generation profiles are provided as capacity factors and are based on a 2012 weather year using NSRDB and WindToolkit resource data. For more details on the supply curve and profile datasets included here please refer to README. Additional information on the supply curves and the LULC projections used to generate them, as well as an analysis of their impact on wind and solar deployment under decarbonization can be found in the publication linked below: "U.S. Wind and Solar PV Supply Curves with Future Land-use Change Publication".

Array↗
DOE OSTI2021

Magnetic ground state of the one-dimensional ferromagnetic chain compounds M (NCS) 2 (thiourea) 2 (M=Ni,Co)

The magnetic properties of the two isostructural molecule-based magnets— Ni ( NCS ) 2 ( thiourea ) 2 , S = 1 [ thiourea = SC ( NH 2 ) 2 ] and Co ( NCS ) 2 ( thiourea ) 2 , S = 3 / 2 —are characterized using several techniques in order to rationalize their relationship with structural parameters and to ascertain magnetic changes caused by substitution of the spin. Zero-field heat capacity and muon-spin relaxation measurements reveal low-temperature long-range ordering in both compounds, in addition to Ising-like ( D < 0 ) single-ion anisotropy ( D Co ~ - 100 K, D Ni ~ - 10 K). Crystal and electronic structure, combined with dc-field magnetometry, affirm highly quasi-one-dimensional behavior, with ferromagnetic intrachain exchange interactions J Co ≈ + 4 K and J Ni ~ + 100 K and weak antiferromagnetic interchain exchange, on the order of J ' ~ - 0.1 K. Furthermore, electron charge- and spin-density mapping reveals through-space exchange as a mechanism to explain the large discrepancy in J -values despite, from a structural perspective, the highly similar exchange pathways in both materials. Both species can be compared to the similar compounds M Cl 2 ( thiourea ) 4 , M = Ni(II) (DTN) and Co(II) (DTC), where DTN is known to harbor two magnetic-field-induced quantum critical points. Direct comparison of DTN and DTC with the compounds studied here shows that substituting the halide Cl - ion for the NCS - ion results in a dramatic change in both the structural and magnetic properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

A practical phosphorus-based anode material for high-energy lithium-ion batteries

State-of-the-art lithium-ion batteries cannot satisfy the increasing energy demand worldwide because of the low specific capacity of the graphite anode. Silicon and phosphorus both show much higher specific capacity; however, their practical use is significantly hindered by their large volume changes during charge/discharge. Although significant efforts have been made to improve their cycle life, the initial coulombic efficiencies of the reported Si-based and P-based anodes are still unsatisfactory (<90%). In this study, by using a scalable high-energy ball milling approach, we report a practical hierarchical micro/nanostructured P-based anode material for high-energy lithium-ion batteries, which possesses a high initial coulombic efficiency of 91% and high specific capacity of ~2500 mAh g –1 together with long cycle life and fast charging capability. In situ high-energy X-ray diffraction and in situ single-particle charging/discharging were used to understand its superior lithium storage performance. Moreover, proof-of-concept full-cell lithium-ion batteries using such an anode and a LiNi 0.6 Co 0.2 Mn 0.2 O 2 cathode were assembled to show their practical use. The findings presented here can serve as a good guideline for the future design of high-performance anode materials for lithium-ion batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Direct Ink Writing of 3D Zn Structures as High‐Capacity Anodes for Rechargeable Alkaline Batteries

The relationship between structure and performance in alkaline Zn batteries is undeniable, where anode utilization, dendrite formation, shape change, and passivation issues are all addressable through anode morphology. While tailoring 3D hosts can improve the electrode performance, these practices are inherently limited by scaffolds that increase the mass or volume. Herein, a direct write strategy for producing template‐free metallic 3D Zn electrode architectures is discussed. Concentrated inks are customized to build designs with low electrical resistivity (5 × 10 −4 Ω cm), submillimeter sizes (200 μm filaments), and high mechanical stability (Young's modulus of 0.1–0.5 GPa at relative densities of 0.28–0.46). A printed Zn lattice anode versus NiOOH cathode with an alkaline polymer gel electrolyte is then demonstrated. This Zn||NiOOH cell operates for over 650 cycles at high rates of 25 mA cm −2 with an average areal capacity of 11.89 mAh cm −2 , a cumulative capacity of 7.8 Ah cm −2 , and a volumetric capacity of 23.78 mAh cm −3 . A thicker Zn anode achieves an ultrahigh areal capacity of 85.45 mAh cm −2 and a volumetric capacity of 81.45 mAh cm −3 without significant microstructural changes after 50 cycles.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Value of Nuclear Energy to the Reliability of the North American Power System: Results for Western and Eastern Interconnections

This report documents the fulfillment of a milestone for the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: completing a baseline study of regional impact of nuclear power plants and hydrogen production in maintaining grid services and power quality. Models have been comprehensively demonstrated for the Western Interconnection, or Western Electric Coordinating Council area, and in the Eastern Interconnection for scenarios representative of past extreme events (e.g., drought and heat waves). Understanding the impact on the reliability of the bulk electric system of any reduction in generation capacity from nuclear power, for any reason, is the motivation of this work. Factors that might lead to the premature or unplanned closure of nuclear plants, extended outages, or repurposing of nuclear power include: • Aging infrastructure: Many nuclear power plants in the U.S. are nearing the end of their designed operating lives. Upgrading aging infrastructure can be expensive, and some utilities may choose to retire plants rather than invest in costly upgrades. • Low wholesale electricity prices: The deregulation of the electricity market in many states has led to increased competition and driven down wholesale electricity prices, causing nuclear power operators to seek other revenue sources for their heat and power such as clean hydrogen production. • Renewables growth: The rapid growth of renewable energy sources like solar and wind power is posing a challenge to traditional generation sources like nuclear. While many see renewables as a key part of the clean energy transition, their intermittent nature requires additional grid solutions for reliable power supply. • The potential for regulatory decisions to be in conflict: In its 2021 rulemaking, EPA rule (86 FR 880), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) set a compliance date for the ban on processing and distribution in commerce of Decabromodiphenyl Ether (DecaBDE). Since DecaBDE is in many components, particularly wiring, of nuclear power plants which are deemed safety-related or important to safety, three plants would not have been able to restart after their 2023 spring outages, and numerous others would have faced issues in the near future. Fortunately, in this case, the EPA provided relief to the nuclear energy industry. The report provides a summary of the significant role nuclear energy plays in the United States’ power generation mix, supplying around 20% of the nation’s electricity generation, spread across 28 U.S. states. Nuclear power is reliable, mostly unaffected by weather and seasonal changes, and provides a consistent source of baseload power. In terms of capacity, nuclear power plants account for as much as 26% of balancing area power generation capacity. Nuclear power also provides a substantial contribution (e.g., 10% of the inertia in the Eastern Interconnection) of the synchronous spinning mass/inertia that buffers the rate at which frequency changes when a load and generation imbalance occurs (e.g., a large plant trips or a load is suddenly shed due to a transmission outage). This contribution is critical for maintaining grid stability during sudden changes in load or generation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Providing Global Change Information for Decision-Making: Capturing and Presenting Provenance

Global change information demands access to data sources and well-documented provenance to provide evidence needed to build confidence in scientific conclusions and, in specific applications, to ensure the information's suitability for use in decision-making. A new generation of Web technology, the Semantic Web, provides tools for that purpose. The topic of global change covers changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric composition and or chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life and support human systems. Data and findings associated with global change research are of great public, government, and academic concern and are used in policy and decision-making, which makes the provenance of global change information especially important. In addition, since different types of decisions benefit from different types of information, understanding how to capture and present the provenance of global change information is becoming more of an imperative in adaptive planning.

provenance tracking↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solid‐State Prealkylation of Electrode Architectures (SPEAR): Direct Control of Prelithiation Levels in Silicon Anodes and Electrochemical Cycling

The Solid-state Prealkylation of Electrode ARchitectures (SPEAR) is different than traditional electrochemical prealkylation processes. Through SPEAR, alkylation is driven by solid-state diffusion without the simultaneous SEI formation concomitant with polarization. Here, we investigate the prelithiation of 80 wt. % Si-based anodes to varying amounts (up to Li 1.38 Si) to understand the trade-off between improved Li capacity and expansion-induced stress. Through dilatometry, we found that solid-state lithiation led to filling of the electrode pores through silicon expansion. This swelling changed the SEI formation process and accessibility of the silicon compared to an electrochemically lithiated electrode. Indeed, optimal prelithiation to Li 0.82 Si increases the initial C/3 cycling capacity post-SEI formation up to 43%, consistent with deeper Si activation through the electrode bulk. Prelithiation and cycling cells prelithiated beyond Li 0.82 Si results in a state of charge (SOC) close to 100% which facilitates parasitic degradation mechanisms and volume expansion of the Si electrode. The results demonstrate a pathway to modify silicon activation/SEI formation to enable high-energy electrodes.

Musgrove, Amanda L. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2025

Incorporating the Acclimation of Photosynthesis and Leaf Respiration in the Noah‐MP Land Surface Model: Model Development and Evaluation

Abstract Realistic simulation of leaf photosynthetic and respiratory processes is needed for accurate prediction of the global carbon cycle. These two processes systematically acclimate to long‐term environmental changes by adjusting photosynthetic and respiratory traits (e.g., the maximum photosynthetic capacity at 25°C ( V cmax,25 ) and the leaf respiration rate at 25°C ( R 25 )) following increasingly well‐understood principles. While some land surface models (LSMs) now account for thermal acclimation, they do so by assigning empirical parameterizations for individual plant functional types (PFTs). Here, we have implemented an Eco‐Evolutionary Optimality (EEO)‐based scheme to represent the universal acclimation of photosynthesis and leaf respiration to multiple environmental effects, and that therefore requires no PFT‐specific parameterizations, in a standard version of the widely used LSM, Noah MP. We evaluated model performance with plant trait data from a 5‐year experiment and extensive global field measurements, and carbon flux measurements from FLUXNET2015. We show that observed R 25 and V cmax,25 vary substantially both temporally and spatially within the same PFT ( C.V. >20%). Our EEO‐based scheme captures 62% of the temporal and 70% of the spatial variations in V cmax,25 (73% and 54% of the variations in R 25 ). The standard scheme underestimates gross primary production by 10% versus 2% for the EEO‐based scheme and generates a larger spread in r (correlation coefficient) across flux sites (0.79 ± 0.16 vs. 0.84 ± 0.1, mean ± S.D.). The standard scheme greatly overestimates canopy respiration (bias: ∼200% vs. 8% for the EEO scheme), resulting in less CO 2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. Our approach thus simulates climate‐carbon coupling more realistically, with fewer parameters.

Ren, Yanghang [Department of Earth System Science ↗
NASA NTRS2016

Analysis of the Capacity Potential of Current Day and Novel Configurations for New York's John F. Kennedy Airport

In 2015, a series of systems analysis studies were conducted on John F. Kennedy Airport in New York (NY) in a collaborative effort between NASA and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ). This work was performed to build a deeper understanding of NY airspace and operations to determine the improvements possible through operational changes with tools currently available, and where new technology is required for additional improvement. The analysis was conducted using tool-based mathematical analyses, video inspection and evaluation using recorded arrival/departure/surface traffic captured by the Aerobahn tool (used by Kennedy Airport for surface metering), and aural data archives available publically through the web to inform the video segments. A discussion of impacts of trajectory and operational choices on capacity is presented, including runway configuration and usage (parallel, converging, crossing, shared, independent, staggered), arrival and departure route characteristics (fix sharing, merges, splits), and how compression of traffic is staged. The authorization in March of 2015 for New York to use reduced spacing under the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Wake Turbulence Recategorization (RECAT) also offers significant capacity benefit for New York airports when fully transitioned to the new spacing requirements, and the impact of these changes for New York is discussed. Arrival and departure capacity results are presented for each of the current day Kennedy Airport configurations. While the tools allow many variations of user-selected conditions, the analysis for these studies used arrival-priority, no-winds, additional safety buffer of 5% to the required minimum spacing, and a mix of traffic typical for Kennedy. Two additional "novel" configurations were evaluated. These configurations are of interest to Port Authority and to their airline customers, and are believed to offer near-term capacity benefit with minimal operational and equipage changes. One of these is the addition of an Optimized Profile Descent (OPD) route to runways 22L and 22R, and the other is the simultaneous use of 4 runways, which is not currently done at Kennedy. The background and configuration for each of these is described, and the capacity results are presented along with a discussion of drawbacks and enablers for each.

Glaab, Patricia↗
NASA NTRS2022

Global Gridded Crop Models Underestimate Yield Responses to Droughts and Heatwaves

Extreme events can lead to crop yield declines, resulting in financial losses and threats to food security, and the frequency and intensity of such events is projected to increase. As global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on agricultural yields, there is a need to understand whether these models are able to reproduce the observed yield declines. We evaluated 13 GGCMs from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and compared observed and simulated impact of past droughts and heatwaves on yields for four crops (maize, rice, soy, wheat). We found that most models detect but underestimate the impact of droughts and heatwaves on yield. Specifically, the drought signal was detected by 12 of 13 models for maize and all models for wheat, while the heat signal was detected by eleven models for maize and six models for wheat. To investigate whether the difference between simulated and observed yield declines is due to a misrepresentation of simulated exposure to heat or water scarcity (i.e. misrepresentation of growing season), we analysed the relationship between average discrepancies between observed and simulated yield losses, and average simulated exposure to extreme weather conditions across all crop models. We found a positive correlation between simulated exposure to heat and model performance for heatwaves, but found no correlation for droughts. This suggests that there is a systematic underestimation of yield responses to heat and drought and not only a misrepresentation of exposure. Assuming that performance for the past indicates models' capacity to project future yield impacts, models likely underestimate future yield decline from climate change. High-quality temporally and spatially resolved observational data on growing seasons will be highly valuable to further improve crop models' capacity to adequately respond to extreme weather events.

extreme events↗
DOE OSTI2020

Rainfall manipulation experiments as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: Where do we stand?

Changes in rainfall amounts and patterns have been observed and are expected to continue in the near future with potentially significant ecological and societal consequences. Modelling vegetation responses to changes in rainfall is thus crucial to project water and carbon cycles in the future. In this study, we present the results of a new model-data intercomparison project, where we tested the ability of 10 terrestrial biosphere models to reproduce the observed sensitivity of ecosystem productivity to rainfall changes at 10 sites across the globe, in nine of which, rainfall exclusion and/or irrigation experiments had been performed. The key results are as follows: (a) Inter-model variation is generally large and model agreement varies with timescales. In severely water-limited sites, models only agree on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration and to a smaller extent on gross primary productivity. In more mesic sites, model agreement for both water and carbon fluxes is typically higher on fine (daily–monthly) timescales and reduces on longer (seasonal–annual) scales. (b) Models on average overestimate the relationship between ecosystem productivity and mean rainfall amounts across sites (in space) and have a low capacity in reproducing the temporal (interannual) sensitivity of vegetation productivity to annual rainfall at a given site, even though observation uncertainty is comparable to inter-model variability. (c) Most models reproduced the sign of the observed patterns in productivity changes in rainfall manipulation experiments but had a low capacity in reproducing the observed magnitude of productivity changes. Models better reproduced the observed productivity responses due to rainfall exclusion than addition. (d) All models attribute ecosystem productivity changes to the intensity of vegetation stress and peak leaf area, whereas the impact of the change in growing season length is negligible. Finally, the relative contribution of the peak leaf area and vegetation stress intensity was highly variable among models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cracking vs. surface reactivity in high-nickel cathodes for lithium-ion batteries

High-nickel layered oxide cathodes LiNi x Mn y Co z O 2 (NMC) experience microcracks during cycling. This can expose fresh cathode surfaces for parasitic reactions and isolate active cathode material from the conductive electrode matrix, resulting in impedance increase and capacity fade. The commonly held belief attributes microcracks to anisotropic lattice volume changes of primary particles during cycling. Nevertheless, recent reports suggest that certain electrolytes might reduce microcracks in NMC cathodes during deep cycling. This raises a crucial question on the origin of microcracks: do microcracks exacerbate surface stability, or does poor surface stability contribute to microcrack formation? This perspective aims to provide context and expound this “chicken or egg” dilemma. We contend that the consequence of surface reactivity on the cycle life of high-Ni cathodes is more pronounced than that of particle cracking. Here, we hypothesize that particle cracking is more of a symptom of severe surface reactivity rather than a cause of capacity fade.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗