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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

MAC to VAX Connectivity: Heartrate Spectral Analysis System

The heart rate Spectral Analysis System (SAS) acquires and analyzes, in real-time, the Space Shuttle onboard electrocardiograph (EKG) experiment signals, calculates the heartrate, and applies a Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) to the heart rate. The system also calculates other statistical parameters such as the 'mean heart rate' over specific time period and heart rate histogram. This SAS is used by NASA Principal Investigators as a research tool to determine the effects of weightlessness on the human cardiovascular system. This is also used to determine if Lower Body Negative Pressure (LBNP) is an effective countermeasure to the orthostatic intolerance experienced by astronauts upon return to normal gravity. In microgravity, astronauts perform the LBNP experiment in the mid deck of the Space Shuttle. The experiment data are downlinked by the orbiter telemetry system, then processed and analyzed in real-time by the integrated Life Sciences Data Acquisition (LSDS) - Spectral Analysis System. The data system is integrated within the framework of two different computer systems, VAX and Macintosh (Mac), using the networking infrastructure to assist the investigators in further understanding the most complex machine on Earth--the human body.

Rahman, Hasan H.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A simple test of independence for truncated data with applications to redshift surveys

This paper presents an easily applied permutation test for H0, closely related to Lyden-Bell's (1971) estimate of the marginal distribution of truncated data. The test is applied to two redshift-magnitude surveys, one of galaxies and one of quasars. Assuming statistical independence, testing H0 amounts to testing validity of the cosmological model. Segal's (1986) chronomatic cosmological model is rejected under H0. On the other hand, for the quasar sample H0 is rejected strongly in a conventional cosmological model (and in a chronomatic model as well) indicating either incorrectness of the models or, as is more commonly assumed, indicating strong luminosity evolution.

Efron, Bradley↗
NASA NTRS1994

Monte Carlo simulation of the terrestrial hydrogen exosphere

Methods for Monte Carlo simulation of planetary exospheres have evolved from early work on the lunar atmosphere, where the regolith surface provides a well defined exobase. A major limitation of the successor simulations of the exospheres of Earth and Venus is the use of an exobase surface as an artifice to separate the collisional processes of the thermosphere from a collisionles exosphere. In this paper a new generalized approach to exosphere simulation is described, wherein the exobase is replaced by a barometric depletion of the major constitents of the thermosphere. Exospheric atoms in the thermosphere-exosphere transition region, and in the outer exosphere as well, travel in ballistic trajectories that are interrupted by collisons with the background gas, and by charge exchange interactions with ionospheric particles. The modified simulator has been applied to the terrestrial hydrogen exosphere problem, using velocity dependent differential cross sections to provide statistically correct collisional scattering in H-O and H-H(+) interactions. Global models are presented for both solstice and equinox over the effective solar cycle range of the F(sub 10.7) index (80 to 230). Simulation results show significant differences with previous terrestrial exosphere models, as well as with the H distributions of the MSIS-86 thermosphere model.

Hodges, R. Richard, Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Finding Bounded Rational Equilibria: Iterative Focusing - Part 1

A long-running difficulty with conventional game theory has been how to modify it to accommodate the bounded rationality characterizing all real-world players. A recurring issue in statistical physics is how best to approximate joint probability distributions with decoupled (and therefore far more tractable) distributions. It has recently been shown that the same information theoretic mathematical structure, known as Probability Collectives (PC) underlies both issues. This relationship between statistical physics and game theory allows techniques and insights from the one field to be applied to the other. In particular, PC provides a formal model-independent definition of the degree of rationality of a player and of bounded rationality equilibria. This pair of papers extends previous work on PC by introducing new computational approaches to effectively find bounded rationality equilibria of common-interest (team) games.

Wolpert, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Finding Bounded Rational Equilibria: Alternative Lagrangians and Uncountable Move Spaces - Part 2

A long-running difficulty with conventional game theory has been how to modify it to accommodate the bounded rationality characterizing all real-world players. A recurring issue in statistical physics is how best to approximate joint probability distributions with decoupled (and therefore far more tractable) distributions. It has recently been shown that the same information theoretic mathematical structure, known as Probability Collectives (PC) underlies both issues. This relationship between statistical physics and game theory allows techniques and insights &om the one field to be applied to the other. In particular, PC provides a formal model-independent definition of the degree of rationality of a player and of bounded rationality equilibria. This pair of papers extends previous work on PC by introducing new computational approaches to effectively find bounded rationality equilibria of common-interest (team) games.

Wolpert, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Strong-field Gravitational Effects in the Timing and Spectroscopy of X-Ray Binaries

Using the ray-tracing code described, we developed additional features to the hot spot model to explain the broadening of the quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) peaks as well as the damping of higher frequency harmonics in the power spectrum. We derived a number of analytic results that agree closely with more detailed numerical calculations. Three primary pieces are developed: the superposition of multiple hot spots with finite lifetimes and random phases, a width in the radial distribution of geodesic orbits, and the scattering of photons from the hot spot through a corona around the black hole. The complete model is used to fit the observed power spectra of both type A and type B QPOs seen in XTE 51550-564, giving confidence limits on each of the model parameters. These results were presented in a conference paper and in a refereed publication. We also explored the possibility of using higher-order statistics, particularly the bispectrum and bicoherence, to distinguish between competing QPO models. These methods were applied to the hot spot model and a method was proposed to map out the spacetime metric around Kerr black holes in Ref. 3 below.

Bertschinger, Edmund↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Chandra Search for Coronal X Rays from the Cool White Dwarf GD 356

We report observations with the Chandra X-ray Observatory of the single, cool, magnetic white dwarf GD 356. For consistent comparison with other X-ray observations of single white dwarfs, we also re-analyzed archival ROSAT data for GD 356 (GJ 1205), G 99-47 (GR 290 = V1201 Ori), GD 90, G 195-19 (EG250 = GJ 339.1), and WD 2316+123 and archival Chandra data for LHS 1038 (GJ 1004) and GD 358 (V777 Her). Our Chandra observation detected no X rays from GD 356, setting the most restrictive upper limit to the X-ray luminosity from any cool white dwarf - Lx less than 6.0 x 10(exp 25) erg s(sup -1), at 99.7% confidence, for a 1- keV thermal-bremsstrahlung spectrum. The corresponding limit to the electron density is no less than 4.4x10(exp 11) per cubic centimeter. Our re-analysis of the archival data confirmed the non-detections reported by the original investigators. We discuss the implications of our and prior observations on models for coronal emission from white dwarfs. For magnetic white dwarfs, we emphasize the more stringent constraints imposed by cyclotron radiation. In addition, we describe (in an appendix) a statistical methodology for detecting a source and for constraining the strength of a source, which applies even when the number of source or background events is small.

Weisskopf, Martin C.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Method for Retrieving Ground Flash Fraction from Satellite Lightning Imager Data

A general theory for retrieving the fraction of ground flashes in N lightning observed by a satellite-based lightning imager is provided. An "exponential model" is applied as a physically reasonable constraint to describe the measured optical parameter distributions, and population statistics (i.e., mean, variance) are invoked to add additional constraints to the retrieval process. The retrieval itself is expressed in terms of a Bayesian inference, and the Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) solution is obtained. The approach is tested by performing simulated retrievals, and retrieval error statistics are provided. The ability to retrieve ground flash fraction has important benefits to the atmospheric chemistry community. For example, using the method to partition the existing satellite global lightning climatology into separate ground and cloud flash climatologies will improve estimates of lightning nitrogen oxides (NOx) production; this in turn will improve both regional air quality and global chemistry/climate model predictions.

Koshak, William J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Ground Flash Fraction Retrieval Algorithm for GLM

A Bayesian inversion method is introduced for retrieving the fraction of ground flashes in a set of N lightning observed by a satellite lightning imager (such as the Geostationary Lightning Mapper, GLM). An exponential model is applied as a physically reasonable constraint to describe the measured lightning optical parameter distributions. Population statistics (i.e., the mean and variance) are invoked to add additional constraints to the retrieval process. The Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) solution is employed. The approach is tested by performing simulated retrievals, and retrieval error statistics are provided. The approach is feasible for N greater than 2000, and retrieval errors decrease as N is increased.

Koshak, William J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific with ENSO-Dependent Cyclogenesis

A new statistical model for western North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone genesis and tracks is developed and applied to estimate regionally resolved tropical cyclone landfall rates along the coasts of the Asian mainland, Japan, and the Philippines. The model is constructed on International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) 1945-2007 historical data for the western North Pacific. The model is evaluated in several ways, including comparing the stochastic spread in simulated landfall rates with historic landfall rates. Although certain biases have been detected, overall the model performs well on the diagnostic tests, for example, reproducing well the geographic distribution of landfall rates. Western North Pacific cyclogenesis is influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This dependence is incorporated in the model s genesis component to project the ENSO-genesis dependence onto landfall rates. There is a pronounced shift southeastward in cyclogenesis and a small but significant reduction in basinwide annual counts with increasing ENSO index value. On almost all regions of coast, landfall rates are significantly higher in a negative ENSO state (La Nina).

Yonekura, Emmi↗
NASA NTRS2016

Exploration Clinical Decision Support System: Medical Data Architecture

The Exploration Clinical Decision Support (ECDS) System project is intended to enhance the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element for extended duration, deep-space mission planning in HRP. A major development guideline is the Risk of "Adverse Health Outcomes & Decrements in Performance due to Limitations of In-flight Medical Conditions". ECDS attempts to mitigate that Risk by providing crew-specific health information, actionable insight, crew guidance and advice based on computational algorithmic analysis. The availability of inflight health diagnostic computational methods has been identified as an essential capability for human exploration missions. Inflight electronic health data sources are often heterogeneous, and thus may be isolated or not examined as an aggregate whole. The ECDS System objective provides both a data architecture that collects and manages disparate health data, and an active knowledge system that analyzes health evidence to deliver case-specific advice. A single, cohesive space-ready decision support capability that considers all exploration clinical measurements is not commercially available at present. Hence, this Task is a newly coordinated development effort by which ECDS and its supporting data infrastructure will demonstrate the feasibility of intelligent data mining and predictive modeling as a biomedical diagnostic support mechanism on manned exploration missions. The initial step towards ground and flight demonstrations has been the research and development of both image and clinical text-based computer-aided patient diagnosis. Human anatomical images displaying abnormal/pathological features have been annotated using controlled terminology templates, marked-up, and then stored in compliance with the AIM standard. These images have been filtered and disease characterized based on machine learning of semantic and quantitative feature vectors. The next phase will evaluate disease treatment response via quantitative linear dimension biomarkers that enable image content-based retrieval and criteria assessment. In addition, a data mining engine (DME) is applied to cross-sectional adult surveys for predicting occurrence of renal calculi, ranked by statistical significance of demographics and specific food ingestion. In addition to this precursor space flight algorithm training, the DME will utilize a feature-engineering capability for unstructured clinical text classification health discovery. The ECDS backbone is a proposed multi-tier modular architecture providing data messaging protocols, storage, management and real-time patient data access. Technology demonstrations and success metrics will be finalized in FY16.

Biomedical support↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Estimates for Sonic-Boom Pressure Signatures and Loudness Carpets

A non-intrusive uncertainty quantification method is applied to computational analysis of supersonic, low-boom aircraft. The mean and standard deviation statistics of the pressure waveforms and loudness metrics are evaluated through use of numerical quadrature. The probability density function (p.d.f.) of these outputs is evaluated via kernel density estimation. The simulations use an inviscid, embedded-boundary Cartesian-mesh flow solver in the nearfield combined with an augmented Burgers’ equation solver for propagation in the farfield. The results show that the p.d.f. of the waveform is bimodal at shocks, which makes the mean and standard deviation statistics inappropriate. Despite this limitation, we show that the moment statistics can provide effective assessment of discrepancies when comparing with experimental data. This is demonstrated by presenting uncertainty analysis of a wind-tunnel test and showing that we significantly improve the predictions when we include the test uncertainties in the simulation. Normal distributions are obtained for the ground signature and loudness metrics, which is primarily due to the careful shaping of the low-boom waveform. Separation of variables and error control are used to reduce computational cost. We demonstrate that this is an efficient approach in the sense of balancing numerical errors in the statistics quadrature with discretization errors in the solvers.

ARMD↗
NASA NTRS2010

Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to Launch Vehicle Design and Requirements Verification

This paper is focused on applying Monte Carlo simulation to probabilistic launch vehicle design and requirements verification. The approaches developed in this paper can be applied to other complex design efforts as well. Typically the verification must show that requirement "x" is met for at least "y" % of cases, with, say, 10% consumer risk or 90% confidence. Two particular aspects of making these runs for requirements verification will be explored in this paper. First, there are several types of uncertainties that should be handled in different ways, depending on when they become known (or not). The paper describes how to handle different types of uncertainties and how to develop vehicle models that can be used to examine their characteristics. This includes items that are not known exactly during the design phase but that will be known for each assembled vehicle (can be used to determine the payload capability and overall behavior of that vehicle), other items that become known before or on flight day (can be used for flight day trajectory design and go/no go decision), and items that remain unknown on flight day. Second, this paper explains a method (order statistics) for determining whether certain probabilistic requirements are met or not and enables the user to determine how many Monte Carlo samples are required. Order statistics is not new, but may not be known in general to the GN&C community. The methods also apply to determining the design values of parameters of interest in driving the vehicle design. The paper briefly discusses when it is desirable to fit a distribution to the experimental Monte Carlo results rather than using order statistics.

Hanson, John M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Uncertainty Analysis of Inertial Model Attitude Sensor Calibration and Application with a Recommended New Calibration Method

Statistical tools, previously developed for nonlinear least-squares estimation of multivariate sensor calibration parameters and the associated calibration uncertainty analysis, have been applied to single- and multiple-axis inertial model attitude sensors used in wind tunnel testing to measure angle of attack and roll angle. The analysis provides confidence and prediction intervals of calibrated sensor measurement uncertainty as functions of applied input pitch and roll angles. A comparative performance study of various experimental designs for inertial sensor calibration is presented along with corroborating experimental data. The importance of replicated calibrations over extended time periods has been emphasized; replication provides independent estimates of calibration precision and bias uncertainties, statistical tests for calibration or modeling bias uncertainty, and statistical tests for sensor parameter drift over time. A set of recommendations for a new standardized model attitude sensor calibration method and usage procedures is included. The statistical information provided by these procedures is necessary for the uncertainty analysis of aerospace test results now required by users of industrial wind tunnel test facilities.

Tripp, John S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variational Coupled Loads Analysis using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Time-domain coupled loads analysis (CLA)is used to determine the response of a launch vehicle and payload system to transient forces, such as liftoff, engine ignitions and shutdowns, jettison events, and atmospheric flight loads, such as buffet. CLA, using Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB)component models, is the accepted method for the establishment of design-level loads for launch systems. However, uncertainty in the component models flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty in the structural responses during launch is a significant concern because small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interactions can result in significant variations in system loads. Uncertainty quantification (UQ)is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. In this paper uncertainty is treated at the HCB component-model level. In an effort to account for model uncertainties and statistically bound their effect on CLA predictions, this work combines CLA with UQ in a process termed variational coupled loads analysis (VCLA). The modeling of uncertainty using a parametric approach, in which input parameters are represented by random variables, is common, but its major drawback is the resulting uncertainty is limited to the form of the nominal model. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. Model-form uncertainty can be represented using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory (RMT). In this work, UQ is performed using the hybrid parametric variation (HPV)method, which combines parametric with nonparametric uncertainty at the HCB component model level. The HPV method requires the selection of dispersion values for the HCB fixed-interface (FI)eigenvalues, and the HCB mass and stiffness matrices. The dispersions are based upon component test-analysis modal correlation results. During VCLA, random component models are assembled into an ensemble of random systems using a Monte Carlo (MC)approach. CLA is applied to each of the ensemble members to produce an ensemble of system-level responses for statistical analysis. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through its application to a buffet loads analysis of NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS)during the transonic regime fifty seconds after liftoff. Core stage (CS)section shears and moments are recovered, and statistics are computed.

Uncertainty Quantification↗
NASA NTRS2002

Applications of Kalman filtering to real-time trace gas concentration measurements

A Kalman filtering technique is applied to the simultaneous detection of NH3 and CO2 with a diode-laser-based sensor operating at 1.53 micrometers. This technique is developed for improving the sensitivity and precision of trace gas concentration levels based on direct overtone laser absorption spectroscopy in the presence of various sensor noise sources. Filter performance is demonstrated to be adaptive to real-time noise and data statistics. Additionally, filter operation is successfully performed with dynamic ranges differing by three orders of magnitude. Details of Kalman filter theory applied to the acquired spectroscopic data are discussed. The effectiveness of this technique is evaluated by performing NH3 and CO2 concentration measurements and utilizing it to monitor varying ammonia and carbon dioxide levels in a bioreactor for water reprocessing, located at the NASA-Johnson Space Center. Results indicate a sensitivity enhancement of six times, in terms of improved minimum detectable absorption by the gas sensor.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1972

Flow direction determination of lava flows.

The flow direction technique, previously applied to ash-flow sheets, can be used to determine direction of movement and locate eruptive centers for lava flows. The method provides statistically stronger and more consistent flow direction data for lava than ash-flow tuff. The accuracy and reliability of the technique was established on the porphyritic basaltic andesite of Mount Taylor, New Mexico, which erupted from a known center, the Mount Taylor Amphitheater. The technique was then applied to volcanic units with unknown sources: the John Kerr Peak Quartz Latite and mid-Tertiary andesite flows in the Mogollon Mountains, both in southwestern New Mexico. The flow direction technique indicated flow patterns and suggested source areas for each rock unit. In the Mogollon Mountains flow direction measurements were supported by independent directional criteria such as dips of cross beds, stratigraphic thickening, facies changes, and megascopic textures.-

Smith, E. I.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Parameter estimation using an a posteriori criterion

A procedure for estimating noise statistics as well as system model parameters, based on a maximum likelihood criterion, has been successfully applied to a number of aircraft parameter-identification problems. In the present investigation, an a posteriori criterion is examined for use in such an application, when it is desired to model process noise. The criteria lead to identical results when there is no process noise.

Bach, R. E., Jr.↗