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At least 487 records · Page 27

Geothermal Power Systems Analysis: Outcome of Industry Stakeholders Workshop: Preprint

Geothermal cost and performance evaluation implemented via technoeconomic assessment (TEA) modeling is critical for the Department of Energy (DOE) and other geothermal industry stakeholders in assessing the current state of geothermal technologies and to identify existing hurdles to commercially viable geothermal development. The Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is a major TEA tool used in estimating the economic feasibility and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of conventional hydrothermal systems and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Since 2021, GETEM has been transitioning from an intricate spreadsheet model to a user-friendly tool within the System Advisor Model (SAM) developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Apart from enabling an expanded visibility of the geothermal model among other renewable resources, having GETEM in SAM has the advantage of simulation automation, better usability, updates tracking, active user inputs/feedback, and extended financial modeling. GETEM is used in developing supply curves for the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). The ATB data are inputs to the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) models. The geothermal module in NREL’s reV model assesses the geothermal energy potential in the conterminous United States by defining the geospatial intersection of geothermal resources with existing grid infrastructure within the constraint of land use characteristics. The ReEDS model is a capacity expansion model used for simulating the long-term build-out and operation of the US generation and transmission system based on current energy costs and policies. To ensure enhanced representation of current industry trends in our model transitions and development, we organized a two-day virtual workshop to elicit geothermal industry stakeholder input and recommendations on our current approaches and assumptions on technoeconomic, resource assessment, and deployment scenarios modeling of geothermal technologies. Participants included developers, operators, investors, regulatory agencies, system modelers, national laboratory researchers, consultants, and other stakeholders. In this workshop, we gained stakeholder insights on current geothermal plant performance (i.e., capacity factors), updated drilling costs and learning curves, and next generation technologies such as closed loop and superhot rock geothermal. Other outcomes from this workshop and its impact on future geothermal development feasibility, resource availability, and capacity expansion studies are compiled and discussed.

Annual Technology Baseline↗

Imaging Wavepackets in Real-Space & Disentangling Ultrafast Solvation Dynamics with High-Energy Ultrafast X-ray Scattering

The microscopic information of solute and solute-solvent motions can be measured using ultrafast diffuse x-ray scattering, and compared to molecular dynamics simulations, as demonstrated in studies of solvated molecular systems done in X-ray free-electron lasers. However, for the typical photon energies used in these experiments, the photon momentum transfer range was limited to lower Q values where the signals arising from different parts of the studied system overlap significantly. Recently, this limitation was greatly alleviated by extending the photon energy at the Linac Coherent Light-Source (LCLS), significantly increasing the accessible momentum transfer range. This improvement is transformative for ultrafast diffuse x-ray scattering measurements, enabling for the first time to disentangle the solute scattering difference signal, that persists to higher Q values, from the bulk solvent and solute-solvent cross-terms difference signals. In addition, it enhances the prediction ability of modeling and simulation methods such as the hybrid QM/MM approach. The extended Q range also opens the way to resolve in real-space details regarding coherent wavepackets motions beyond their center-of-mass positions. Here, we present the first results on high-energy (18keV) diffuse x-ray scattering in solution, demonstrating high fidelity time-resolved scattering and analysis of the photoexcited model photocatalysts PtPOP ([Pt2(POP)4]4-), and IrDimen ([Ir2(dimen)4]2+) in several solvents. These complexes provide ideal systems for demonstrating the ability of high-Q ultrafast scattering and QM/MM simulations to decompose ultrafast solvation dynamics into specific changes in the solute-solvent pair distribution function with a particular focus on how electronically excited states change the interaction between the solvent and photo-catalytically active metal sites. We introduce an approach to further utilize the high-energy capability and demonstrate a single-shot ultra-wide-angle X-ray Scattering modality using two perpendicular detectors, spanning a scattering angle range of more than 100 degrees, allowing to extend the accessible momentum transfer range up to Q~14 Å-1. We develop a model-free method to invert the x-ray scattering signals and enable the recovery of multiple pair-density motions that happen simultaneously, allowing us to directly measure in real-space nuclear wavepacket motions. . [1] Natan, Adi. "Real-Space Inversion and Super-Resolution of Ultrafast X-ray Scattering using Natural Scattering Kernels." arXiv preprint arXiv:2107.05576 (2021)

Natan, Adi↗

Active learning approach to simulations of strongly correlated matter with the ghost Gutzwiller approximation

Quantum embedding (QE) methods such as the ghost Gutzwiller approximation (gGA) offer a powerful approach to simulating strongly correlated systems, but come with the computational bottleneck of computing the ground state of an auxiliary embedding Hamiltonian (EH) iteratively. In this work, we introduce an active learning (AL) framework integrated within the gGA to address this challenge. The methodology is applied to the single-band Hubbard model and results in a significant reduction in the number of instances where the EH must be solved. Through a principal component analysis (PCA), we find that the EH parameters form a low-dimensional structure that is largely independent of the geometric specifics of the systems, especially in the strongly correlated regime. Our AL strategy enables us to discover this low-dimensionality structure on the fly, while leveraging it for reducing the computational cost of gGA, laying the groundwork for more efficient simulations of complex strongly correlated materials. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evolution of Oxygen Ligands upon Large Redox Swings of Li 3 IrO 4

The limits of intercalation electrochemistry continue to be tested in the quest for ever increasing gains in the storage capability of Li-ion cathodes. The subsequent push for multi-electron reactivity has led to the recognition of the extremely versatile role of oxide ligands in charge compensation when there is a large redox swing. Li 3 IrO 4 is a unique model of such activity because it can reversibly cycle between Li 1 IrO 4 and Li 4.7 IrO 4 . In this study, X-ray spectroscopy, magnetic measurements and computational simulations uncover the evolution of O states in the different steps, compared to the involvement of Ir. While the process between Li 1 IrO 4 and Li 3 IrO 4 is dominated by the unconventional lattice oxygen redox, the process between Li 3 IrO 4 and Li 4.7 IrO 4 involves a conventional change of the formal oxidation state of Ir, which affects O due to the high covalency. The O states of Li 3 IrO 4 exhibit a very high reversibility after the whole 3.7-electron process, completely restoring the pristine state.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Thermal Hydraulics Validation Activities in the ART-GCR Campaign

The Advanced Reactor Technologies - Gas Cooled Reactor Campaign (ART-GCR) is part of the United States Department of Energy - Office of Nuclear Energy's Advanced Reactor Technologies program aimed at developing a High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) which will offer enhancements in safety and efficiency. The Design, Methods, and Validation arm of the ART-GCR program provides experience and advanced tools for HTGR design and analysis. The Methods and Validation arm is developing data to validate predictions of decay heat removal through an extensive experimental campaign the Natural Convection Shutdown Heat Removal Test Facility at Argonne National Laboratory. In-core thermal hydraulics validation is being facilitated through the OECD/NEA's Thermal Hydraulic Code Validation Benchmark for High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors using HTTF Data. That benchmark contains code-to-code and code-to-data comparisons for 3 sets of HTGR thermal hydraulics phenomena. This ongoing benchmark activity has 16 participants from 9 countries developing leading insights into HTGR thermal hydraulics code validation. The ART-GCR campaign is also working on the development of state-of-the-art MOOSE-based models of the High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR). Through the OECD/NEA's HTTR Loss of Forced Cooling (LOFC) program, the ART-GCR campaign is developing a multiphysics transient code validation benchmark based on 3 HTTR experiments that will provide an opportunity for international collaboration on multiphysics code validation.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Transient pattern formation in an active matter contact poisoning model

Abstract One of the most notable features in repulsive particle based active matter systems is motility-induced-phase separation (MIPS) where a dense, often crystalline phase and low density fluid coexist. Most active matter studies involve time-dependent activity; however, there are many active systems where individual particles transition from living or moving to dead or nonmotile due to lack of fuel, infection, or poisoning. Here we consider an active matter particle system at densities where MIPS does not occur. When we add a small number of infected particles that can poison other particles, rendering them nonmotile, we find a rich variety of time dependent pattern formation, including MIPS, a wetting phase, and a fragmented state formed when mobile particles plow through a nonmotile packing. We map the patterns as a function of time scaled by epidemic duration, and show that the pattern formation is robust for a wide range of poisoning rates and activity levels. We also show that pattern formation does not occur in a random death model, but requires the promotion of nucleation by contact poisoning. Our results should be relevant to biological and active matter systems where there is some form of poisoning, death, or transition to nonmotility.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Probing Terra Incognita of Ni–P Catalysts: Operando Explorations during Hydrogen Evolution Reaction

We have developed two Ni phosphide preparation methods allowing operando XAS surface-sensitive studies of well-defined bulk systems. For Ni K-edge XAS, a Ni 2 P phase-pure powder was sintered into a high-density pellet and polished for grazing incidence XAS. Ni sites were mildly affected by the acidic electrolyte prior to the HER, while the applied cathodic potential caused the reduction of Ni surface states beyond the states of as-prepared Ni 2 P. The computed fully H-covered Ni 2 P [0001] model describes the difference in the operando Ni K-edge GIXAS spectrum well. Upon turning the applied bias off, the Ni sites became immediately oxidized, forming NiO on the surface. Thus, the active phase during the HER is covalent Ni 0 close to that in the intermetallic phosphides, and Ni 2+ oxides formed after, and not during, the HER. For P K-edge XAS, Ni foam was phosphorized to form a thin Ni 3 P layer while preserving its high surface area. Upon immersion in the acidic electrolyte, the P sites underwent removal of P 5+ phosphates and formed new P coordination, possibly due to the adsorption of protons from the electrolyte. These new P surface states were not affected by turning the cathodic current on and off as soon as the sample was immersed in the acidic electrolyte. However, the removal of the sample from the electrochemical cell and drying in air resulted in substantial depletion and oxidation of surface P. Echoing the observed Ni site chemistry during HER, XAS and XPS suggest that the in situ active P sites are different from the oxidized P states observed under ex situ conditions.

Kong, Seongyoung [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (Unit↗

High Flux Isotope Reactor Low-Enriched Uranium Low Density Silicide Fuel Design Parameters

High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU) conversion activities are ongoing as part of the Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)’s nuclear nonproliferation mission. Design activities studying the conversion of HFIR from HEU to LEU fuel explored different fuel design features and shapes with a low density uranium-silicide dispersion (U 3 Si 2 -Al) fuel, which has a uranium density of 4.8 gU/cm 3 . The goal of these studies is to generate several HFIR LEU fuel designs of varying fuel fabrication complexity that meet the current HEU performance metrics and safety requirements. The documented designs will serve as references for fuel fabrication and qualification activities. Recent advancements in modeling and simulation tools enable quick prototyping of fuel designs. Shift, a Monte Carlo neutron transport and depletion tool optimized for high-performance computing (HPC) architectures, is used for efficient fuel cycle and performance metrics calculations. The HFIR Steady State Heat Transfer Code (HSSHTC) is used to vet the thermal safety margin. Also, a new automation tool that connects all fuel design analysis steps, named Python HFIR Analysis and Measurement Engine (PHAME), has been developed to expedite the design study in an efficient and reproducible manner. Leveraging these tools, several candidate fuel designs were selected for varying fabrication complexity. This report provides design feature details for four selected HFIR LEU low density U 3 Si 2 -Al fuel designs and their corresponding performance and safety metrics. Nominal, best-estimate design parameters and irradiation conditions, including fission rate densities, power densities, heat fluxes, and cumulative fission densities are provided for candidate fuel designs relevant to framing irradiation experiments to support fuel qualification efforts. Simulations show that the low density U 3 Si 2 -Al, with design features to enhance safety, can meet HEU core performance metrics and safety requirements if the reactor power is increased from 85 MW (HEU) to 95 MW (LEU) and if the active fuel length is increased from 50.80 cm (HEU) to 55.88 cm (LEU).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Soft-hard framework with exact four-momentum conservation for small systems

A new framework, called x-scape, for the combined study of both hard and soft transverse momentum sectors in high-energy proton-proton (𝑝−𝑝) and proton-nucleus (𝑝−𝐴) collisions is set up. A dynamical initial state is set up using the 3d-Glauber model with transverse locations of hotspots within each incoming nucleon. A hard scattering that emanates from two colliding hotspots is carried out using the Pythia generator. Initial state radiation from the incoming hard partons is carried out in a new module called I-matter, which includes the longitudinal location of initial splits. The energy-momentum of both the initial hard partons and their associated beam remnants is removed from the hot spots, depleting the energy-momentum available for the formation of the bulk medium. Outgoing showers are simulated using the matter generator, and results are presented for both cases, allowing for and not allowing for energy loss. First comparisons between this hard-soft model and single inclusive hadron and jet data from 𝑝−𝑝 and minimum bias 𝑝−Pb collisions are presented. Single hadron spectra in 𝑝−𝑝 are used to carry out a limited (in number of parameters) Bayesian calibration of the model. Fair comparisons with data are indicative of the utility of this new framework. Theoretical studies of the correlation between jet 𝑝 𝑇 and event activity at mid and forward rapidity are carried out.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A CONDUCTION-BASED HEAT PIPE MODEL FOR ANALYZING THE ENTIRE PROCESS OF LIQUID-METAL HEAT PIPE STARTUP

The Heat Pipe-cooled Microreactor (HPM) is one of the micro nuclear reactor designs under active study at the U.S. Idaho National Laboratory. Among the major concerns of HPM research is to understand the startup behavior of the heat pipe-cooled system associated with the startup of the liquid-metal heat pipes initialing from frozen state. The startup of liquid-metal heat pipes typically involves a number of nonlinear mass and heat transport processes including the phase change from solid to liquid and vapor. Hence, it is still a huge challenge to simulate the liquid-metal heat pipe startup using conventional CFD methods and software. The major difficulties of numerical CFD modeling come from the phase-change process, multiphase interaction, microporous wick flow, and compressible gas dynamics that occur during startup of the liquid-metal heat pipes. This paper proposes a simplified conduction-based method to provide practical insights into the entire startup process of the liquid-metal heat pipes while mitigating the challenges of addressing all the complex physics. We discuss the theoretical basis and modeling assumptions to analyze the liquid-metal heat pipe startup from frozen state based solely on heat-conduction equations. Then, the proposed model is implemented into the commercial CFD software to verify the model performance. The model prediction results are discussed via the comparison with the experimental data obtained from sodium heat-pipe startup experiments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Avoiding fusion plasma tearing instability with deep reinforcement learning

For stable and efficient fusion energy production using a tokamak reactor, it is essential to maintain a high-pressure hydrogenic plasma without plasma disruption. Therefore, it is necessary to actively control the tokamak based on the observed plasma state, to manoeuvre high-pressure plasma while avoiding tearing instability, the leading cause of disruptions. This presents an obstacle-avoidance problem for which artificial intelligence based on reinforcement learning has recently shown remarkable performance. However, the obstacle here, the tearing instability, is difficult to forecast and is highly prone to terminating plasma operations, especially in the ITER baseline scenario. Previously, we developed a multimodal dynamic model that estimates the likelihood of future tearing instability based on signals from multiple diagnostics and actuators. Here we harness this dynamic model as a training environment for reinforcement-learning artificial intelligence, facilitating automated instability prevention. We demonstrate artificial intelligence control to lower the possibility of disruptive tearing instabilities in DIII-D, the largest magnetic fusion facility in the United States. The controller maintained the tearing likelihood under a given threshold, even under relatively unfavourable conditions of low safety factor and low torque. In particular, it allowed the plasma to actively track the stable path within the time-varying operational space while maintaining H-mode performance, which was challenging with traditional preprogrammed control. This controller paves the path to developing stable high-performance operational scenarios for future use in ITER.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Influence of Ag metal dispersion on the thermal conversion of ethanol to butadiene over Ag-ZrO 2 /SiO 2 catalysts

Atomistic scale models were developed and coupled with experimental investigation to deliver a functional understanding of catalytic activity and selectivity in the conversion of ethanol to 1,3-butadiene over Ag/ZrO 2 /SiO 2 . A detailed evaluation of the structural and electronic properties of the resultant catalyst models led to the identification of critical active sites of the catalyst. More importantly, the extent of Ag dispersion on the SiO 2 support and relative proximity to ZrO 2 were found to vary with the oxidation state of Ag and local coordination environment (Ag-O SiO2 ) allowing for critical control of ethanol conversion towards butadiene or ethylene. Simulations revealed that less dispersed or clustered Ag contain predominantly Ag 0 charge state and promote conversion of ethanol to ethylene. The well-dispersed Ag/ZrO 2 /SiO 2 catalyst instead contain a larger fraction of cationic Ag δ+ , and predominantly promote ethanol dehydrogenation and subsequent production of butadiene. The theoretical insights drawn were validated and confirmed experimentally using TEM, XRD and reactivity measurements demonstrating the effect of Ag dispersion on the selectivity of ethanol conversion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Structural Implications of Interfacial Hydrogen Bonding in Hydrated Wyoming-Montmorillonite Clay

Montmorillonite (MMT) clay - a layered porous nanomaterial used as seals in engineered waste containment barriers for spent nuclear fuel - adopts discrete hydration/swelling states depending upon surrounding water and ion activities and confining pressure. The structure of nanoconfined water and charge-balancing counterions in the clay mineral interlayers dictate the swelling and mechanical behavior of MMT, so a molecular model for this clay with high structural fidelity is required to accurately predict the reliability of long-term nuclear waste storage. Here, we present a molecular model for MMT that is based on high resolution transmission electron microscopy of Wyoming-MMT single crystals. Imaging data unambiguously show a cis-vacant arrangement of structural hydroxyl groups in the octahedral sheet, whereas existing molecular models assume a centrosymmetric trans-vacant configuration for MMT. Furthermore, using atomistic simulations, we find that the cis-vacant arrangement of structural hydroxyl groups significantly affects the structure of adsorbed water yielding a larger population of hydrogen bonds with bridging oxygens on the tetrahedral sheet and weak hydrogen bonding between the hydroxyl groups in the octahedral sheet and water in the clay mineral interlayers. As a result, water adsorbed in the interlayer is more "ice-like", with stronger ordering and lower density, although the diffusivity of the interlayer species is not significantly diminished. Our improved structural model for MMT provides insight into the energetics of water adsorption, which ultimately dictates its pore- to macro-scale swelling, transport, and fracture properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Kinetics of 2-Methylfuran Acylation with Fatty Acid Anhydrides for Biorenewable Surfactants

Friedel–Crafts acylation using long-chain fatty acid derivatives and biomass-derived furans is the key reaction to produce “alkyl furan ketones”, an important precursor for biorenewable oleo-furan surfactants. In this work, the steady-state acylation kinetics and reaction mechanism were investigated using a model system of 2-methylfuran and n-octanoic anhydride in a fixed-bed tubular reactor using Al-MCM-41, a mesoporous aluminosilicate. An apparent activation energy (15.5 ± 1.4 kcal mol –1 ) was obtained for the formation of the acylated product, 2-octanoyl-5-methylfuran (2O5MF), for a temperature range of 348–408 K. Furthermore, the apparent reaction rate orders were ~0.6 and ~0.5 in the 2-methylfuran and anhydride concentrations, respectively, while near-zero apparent rate orders were measured in the product concentrations, indicating negligible product inhibition. An Eley–Rideal catalytic acylation mechanism was proposed to explain the experimentally observed apparent rate orders.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Unconventional low temperature decomposition of a saturated hydrocarbon over atomically-dispersed titanium-aluminum-boron catalyst

Sonochemically-synthesized atomically-dispersed titanium-aluminum-boron nanopowder (TiAlB NP) exhibits a remarkable low-temperature catalytic activation of aliphatic C-H bonds at 750 K followed by C-C bond activation thus emerging as a potent low-cost alternative to expensive platinum group metals. Here, the model saturated hydrocarbon, exo-tetrahydrodicyclopentadiene (C10H16), undergoes catalytic decomposition on TiAlB NPs in a chemical microreactor to produce 1,3-cyclopentadiene (c-C5H6), cyclopentene (c-C5H8), and molecular hydrogen (H2) as detected in situ via isomer-selective, single-photon ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry. Extensive electronic structure theory calculations on model clusters of the catalyst decode a unique synergy among the atomic constituents of the catalyst and chemical bonding in this stepwise, retro Diels Alder reaction: Ti, although insensitive to C-H activation in its metallic state, initiates the catalysis via chemisorption of the hydrocarbon, adjacent B centers readily abstract hydrogen atoms and store them during the catalytic cycle, while Al stabilizes the catalyst structure yet providing space for critical docking sites for the departing hydrocarbons.

Biswas, Souvick↗

A graph neural network (GNN) approach to basin-scale river network learning: the role of physics-based connectivity and data fusion

Abstract. Rivers and river habitats around the world are under sustained pressure from human activities and the changing global environment. Our ability to quantify and manage the river states in a timely manner is critical for protecting the public safety and natural resources. In recent years, vector-based river network models have enabled modeling of large river basins at increasingly fine resolutions, but are computationally demanding. This work presents a multistage, physics-guided, graph neural network (GNN) approach for basin-scale river network learning and streamflow forecasting. During training, we train a GNN model to approximate outputs of a high-resolution vector-based river network model; we then fine-tune the pretrained GNN model with streamflow observations. We further apply a graph-based, data-fusion step to correct prediction biases. The GNN-based framework is first demonstrated over a snow-dominated watershed in the western United States. A series of experiments are performed to test different training and imputation strategies. Results show that the trained GNN model can effectively serve as a surrogate of the process-based model with high accuracy, with median Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) greater than 0.97. Application of the graph-based data fusion further reduces mismatch between the GNN model and observations, with as much as 50 % KGE improvement over some cross-validation gages. To improve scalability, a graph-coarsening procedure is introduced and is demonstrated over a much larger basin. Results show that graph coarsening achieves comparable prediction skills at only a fraction of training cost, thus providing important insights into the degree of physical realism needed for developing large-scale GNN-based river network models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Biosphere Model Development

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition is conducting research and development on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level nuclear waste. This work includes the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) program which is charged with development of generic deep geologic repository concepts and system performance assessment models. One part of the GDSA framework is the development of a biosphere model capable of assessing doses to potential receptors exposed to radionuclides released from geologic disposal sites. As part of the GDSA framework, a biosphere model compatible with the PFLOTRAN massively parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport code is under development. The PFLOTRAN model provides the radionuclide source term for the biosphere model. The GDSA Biosphere model then assesses the potential movement of radionuclides through the surface biosphere and the subsequent exposure to a human receptor living in the biosphere. The biosphere model includes pathways originating from the groundwater as well as pathways originating from surface water bodies that have a water exchange with a contaminated groundwater body. The pathways for human exposure include consumption of drinking water, irrigated crops, meat animals, aquatic vegetation, and animals, etc.; external exposure from irrigated ground surfaces, surface water bodies, recreational activities, etc.; and inadvertent exposures such as ingestion of contaminated soils or shower water, etc. The GDSA Biosphere model was designed to be flexible and generic in order to accommodate a variety of different sites and climate states. This presentation will present the on the purpose, design, and development progress of the GDSA Biosphere Model.

GDSA, biosphere, repository↗

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗