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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Discovery of Stable Surfaces with Extreme Work Functions by High‐Throughput Density Functional Theory and Machine Learning

Abstract The work function is the key surface property that determines the energy required to extract an electron from the surface of a material. This property is crucial for thermionic energy conversion, band alignment in heterostructures, and electron emission devices. This work presents a high‐throughput workflow using density functional theory (DFT) to calculate the work function and cleavage energy of 33,631 slabs (58,332 work functions) that are created from 3,716 bulk materials. The number of calculated surface properties surpasses the previously largest database by a factor of ≈27. Several surfaces with an ultra‐low (<2 eV) and ultra‐high (>7 eV) work function are identified. Specifically, the (100)‐Ba‐O surface of BaMoO 3 and the (001)‐F surface of Ag 2 F have record‐low (1.25 eV) and record‐high (9.06 eV) steady‐state work functions. Based on this database a physics‐based approach to featurize surfaces is utilized to predict the work function. The random forest model achieves a test mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.09 eV, comparable to the accuracy of DFT. This surrogate model enables rapid predictions of the work function (≈ 10 5 faster than DFT) across a vast chemical space and facilitates the discovery of material surfaces with extreme work functions for energy conversion and electronic device applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning of Key Variables Impacting Extreme Precipitation in Various Regions of the Contiguous United States

Abstract Amplification in extreme precipitation intensity and frequency can cause severe flooding and impose significant social and economic consequences. Variations in extreme precipitation intensity, frequencies, and return periods can be attributed to many physical variables across spatial and temporal scales. Here we employ ensemble machine learning (ML) methods, namely random forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and artificial neural networks (ANN), to explore key contributing variables to monthly extreme precipitation intensity and frequency in six regions over the United States. We further establish emulators for return periods. Results show that the ML models for intensity perform better in regions with obvious seasonality (i.e., Northern Great Plains, Southern Great Plains, and West Coast) than the other three regions (Northeast, Southwest, and Rocky Mountains), while for frequency the models perform well for most regions. The Shapley additive explanation is used to help explain the relationships between extreme precipitation characteristics and identify top variables for RF and XGB. We find that latent heat flux, relative humidity, soil moisture, and large‐scale subsidence are key common variables across the regions for both monthly intensity and frequency, and their compound effects are non‐negligible. The developed ML models capture the probability and return period of extreme precipitation well for all regions and may be used for decision making (e.g., infrastructure planning and design).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extended Rice–Thomson analysis and atomistic simulations revealing grain boundary effects on fracture in refractory high-entropy alloys

Significance This work serves to extend the fundamental ductile vs. brittle fracture theory, specifically the Rice–Thomson criterion, by introducing a grain boundary ahead of an initiating crack which propagates at an oblique angle to impinge the boundary. Atomistic fracture simulations on two refractory complex concentrated alloys, the brittle NbMoTaW and the ductile Nb 45 Ta 25 Ti 15 Hf 15 , demonstrate qualitative correspondence with the extended Rice–Thomson criterion and experimental observations. Abstract Understanding how grain boundaries mediate fracture remains a critical challenge in designing ductile, high-performance refractory alloys. Here, we extend the Rice–Thomson criterion to account for the angle between cracks and the impinging grain boundaries (GBs), capturing the competition between intergranular fracture and dislocation-mediated plasticity. Using machine learning interatomic potentials, we performed molecular statics simulations to probe fracture mechanisms in nanocrystalline NbMoTaW and Nb 45 Ta 25 Ti 15 Hf 15 , each with two different grain sizes, revealing trends consistent with experimental observations and the extended Rice model. Comparison with averaged R-curves for bulk samples demonstrates that GBs enhance ductility in Nb 45 Ta 25 Ti 15 Hf 15 in both grain sizes investigated. In contrast, GBs only locally improve fracture resistance in NbMoTaW when cracks are temporarily pinned at GBs inclined at high angles from the crack, but generally promote brittle intergranular fracture. These contrasting behaviors are attributed to differences in GB cohesion, reflecting clear alloying trends that align with ab-initio calculations and trends observed experimentally. Our results bridge classical fracture theory, atomistic simulations, and experimental observations, providing a comprehensive understanding of the fracture mechanisms in nanocrystalline refractory complex concentrated alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep learning methods for obtaining photometric redshift estimations from images

ABSTRACT Knowing the redshift of galaxies is one of the first requirements of many cosmological experiments, and as it is impossible to perform spectroscopy for every galaxy being observed, photometric redshift (photo-z) estimations are still of particular interest. Here, we investigate different deep learning methods for obtaining photo-z estimates directly from images, comparing these with ‘traditional’ machine learning algorithms which make use of magnitudes retrieved through photometry. As well as testing a convolutional neural network (CNN) and inception-module CNN, we introduce a novel mixed-input model that allows for both images and magnitude data to be used in the same model as a way of further improving the estimated redshifts. We also perform benchmarking as a way of demonstrating the performance and scalability of the different algorithms. The data used in the study comes entirely from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) from which 1 million galaxies were used, each having 5-filtre (ugriz) images with complete photometry and a spectroscopic redshift which was taken as the ground truth. The mixed-input inception CNN achieved a mean squared error (MSE) =0.009, which was a significant improvement ($30{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$) over the traditional random forest (RF), and the model performed even better at lower redshifts achieving a MSE = 0.0007 (a $50{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ improvement over the RF) in the range of z < 0.3. This method could be hugely beneficial to upcoming surveys, such as Euclid and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), which will require vast numbers of photo-z estimates produced as quickly and accurately as possible.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automatic speech recognition predicts contemporaneous earthquake fault displacement

Abstract Significant progress has been made in probing the state of an earthquake fault by applying machine learning to continuous seismic waveforms. The breakthroughs were originally obtained from laboratory shear experiments and numerical simulations of fault shear, then successfully extended to slow-slipping faults. Here we apply the Wav2Vec-2.0 self-supervised framework for automatic speech recognition to continuous seismic signals emanating from a sequence of moderate magnitude earthquakes during the 2018 caldera collapse at the Kīlauea volcano on the island of Hawai’i. We pre-train the Wav2Vec-2.0 model using caldera seismic waveforms and augment the model architecture to predict contemporaneous surface displacement during the caldera collapse sequence, a proxy for fault displacement. We find the model displacement predictions to be excellent. The model is adapted for near-future prediction information and found hints of prediction capability, but the results are not robust. The results demonstrate that earthquake faults emit seismic signatures in a similar manner to laboratory and numerical simulation faults, and artificial intelligence models developed for encoding audio of speech may have important applications in studying active fault zones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

SARS-CoV2 billion-compound docking

Abstract This dataset contains ligand conformations and docking scores for 1.4 billion molecules docked against 6 structural targets from SARS-CoV2, representing 5 unique proteins: MPro, NSP15, PLPro, RDRP, and the Spike protein. Docking was carried out using the AutoDock-GPU platform on the Summit supercomputer and Google Cloud. The docking procedure employed the Solis Wets search method to generate 20 independent ligand binding poses per compound. Each compound geometry was scored using the AutoDock free energy estimate, and rescored using RFScore v3 and DUD-E machine-learned rescoring models. Input protein structures are included, suitable for use by AutoDock-GPU and other docking programs. As the result of an exceptionally large docking campaign, this dataset represents a valuable resource for discovering trends across small molecule and protein binding sites, training AI models, and comparing to inhibitor compounds targeting SARS-CoV-2. The work also gives an example of how to organize and process data from ultra-large docking screens.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine-learning Kohn–Sham potential from dynamics in time-dependent Kohn–Sham systems

Abstract The construction of a better exchange-correlation potential in time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) can improve the accuracy of TDDFT calculations and provide more accurate predictions of the properties of many-electron systems. Here, we propose a machine learning method to develop the energy functional and the Kohn–Sham potential of a time-dependent Kohn–Sham (TDKS) system is proposed. The method is based on the dynamics of the Kohn–Sham system and does not require any data on the exact Kohn–Sham potential for training the model. We demonstrate the results of our method with a 1D harmonic oscillator example and a 1D two-electron example. We show that the machine-learned Kohn–Sham potential matches the exact Kohn–Sham potential in the absence of memory effect. Our method can still capture the dynamics of the Kohn–Sham system in the presence of memory effects. The machine learning method developed in this article provides insight into making better approximations of the energy functional and the Kohn–Sham potential in the TDKS system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Angular clustering properties of the DESI QSO target selection using DR9 Legacy Imaging Surveys

ABSTRACT The quasar target selection for the upcoming survey of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will be fixed for the next 5 yr. The aim of this work is to validate the quasar selection by studying the impact of imaging systematics as well as stellar and galactic contaminants, and to develop a procedure to mitigate them. Density fluctuations of quasar targets are found to be related to photometric properties such as seeing and depth of the Data Release 9 of the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys. To model this complex relation, we explore machine learning algorithms (random forest and multilayer perceptron) as an alternative to the standard linear regression. Splitting the footprint of the Legacy Imaging Surveys into three regions according to photometric properties, we perform an independent analysis in each region, validating our method using extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) EZ-mocks. The mitigation procedure is tested by comparing the angular correlation of the corrected target selection on each photometric region to the angular correlation function obtained using quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 16. With our procedure, we recover a similar level of correlation between DESI quasar targets and SDSS quasars in two-thirds of the total footprint and we show that the excess of correlation in the remaining area is due to a stellar contamination that should be removed with DESI spectroscopic data. We derive the Limber parameters in our three imaging regions and compare them to previous measurements from SDSS and the 2dF QSO Redshift Survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predictive Models of Genetic Redundancy in Arabidopsis thaliana

Abstract Genetic redundancy refers to a situation where an individual with a loss-of-function mutation in one gene (single mutant) does not show an apparent phenotype until one or more paralogs are also knocked out (double/higher-order mutant). Previous studies have identified some characteristics common among redundant gene pairs, but a predictive model of genetic redundancy incorporating a wide variety of features derived from accumulating omics and mutant phenotype data is yet to be established. In addition, the relative importance of these features for genetic redundancy remains largely unclear. Here, we establish machine learning models for predicting whether a gene pair is likely redundant or not in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana based on six feature categories: functional annotations, evolutionary conservation including duplication patterns and mechanisms, epigenetic marks, protein properties including posttranslational modifications, gene expression, and gene network properties. The definition of redundancy, data transformations, feature subsets, and machine learning algorithms used significantly affected model performance based on holdout, testing phenotype data. Among the most important features in predicting gene pairs as redundant were having a paralog(s) from recent duplication events, annotation as a transcription factor, downregulation during stress conditions, and having similar expression patterns under stress conditions. We also explored the potential reasons underlying mispredictions and limitations of our studies. This genetic redundancy model sheds light on characteristics that may contribute to long-term maintenance of paralogs, and will ultimately allow for more targeted generation of functionally informative double mutants, advancing functional genomic studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Photometric classification of Hyper Suprime-Cam transients using machine learning

Abstract The advancement of technology has resulted in a rapid increase in supernova (SN) discoveries. The Subaru/Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) transient survey, conducted from fall 2016 through spring 2017, yielded 1824 SN candidates. This gave rise to the need for fast type classification for spectroscopic follow-up and prompted us to develop a machine learning algorithm using a deep neural network with highway layers. This algorithm is trained by actual observed cadence and filter combinations such that we can directly input the observed data array without any interpretation. We tested our model with a dataset from the LSST classification challenge (Deep Drilling Field). Our classifier scores an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.996 for binary classification (SN Ia or non-SN Ia) and 95.3% accuracy for three-class classification (SN Ia, SN Ibc, or SN II). Application of our binary classification to HSC transient data yields an AUC score of 0.925. With two weeks of HSC data since the first detection, this classifier achieves 78.1% accuracy for binary classification, and the accuracy increases to 84.2% with the full dataset. This paper discusses the potential use of machine learning for SN type classification purposes.

Takahashi, Ichiro↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deducing subnanometer cluster size and shape distributions of heterogeneous supported catalysts

Abstract Infrared (IR) spectra of adsorbate vibrational modes are sensitive to adsorbate/metal interactions, accurate, and easily obtainable in-situ or operando. While they are the gold standards for characterizing single-crystals and large nanoparticles, analogous spectra for highly dispersed heterogeneous catalysts consisting of single-atoms and ultra-small clusters are lacking. Here, we combine data-based approaches with physics-driven surrogate models to generate synthetic IR spectra from first-principles. We bypass the vast combinatorial space of clusters by determining viable, low-energy structures using machine-learned Hamiltonians, genetic algorithm optimization, and grand canonical Monte Carlo calculations. We obtain first-principles vibrations on this tractable ensemble and generate single-cluster primary spectra analogous to pure component gas-phase IR spectra. With such spectra as standards, we predict cluster size distributions from computational and experimental data, demonstrated in the case of CO adsorption on Pd/CeO 2 (111) catalysts, and quantify uncertainty using Bayesian Inference. We discuss extensions for characterizing complex materials towards closing the materials gap.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lack of clear standards and usable comparisons of downscaled climate projections pose a roadblock for US climate discovery and adaptation

Abstract The release of global climate projections coupled with the demand for local-resolution climate-forced meteorology has prompted many research groups to downscale these projections using various statistical, dynamical, and current machine learning techniques. Such downscaled datasets are being used to plan infrastructure and other community needs over the coming decades. Faced with roughly a dozen available US downscaled datasets, many practitioners ask, ‘What are the relevant differences between datasets?’ This work highlights the difficulty of comparing downscaled datasets and illustrates ways in which datasets differ even when using identical climate model input data. We show that substantial variability in precipitation projections arises from downscaling alone and that the downscaled dataset agreement varies depending on global climate projection. This analysis emphasizes the need for greater coordination and movement toward rigorous benchmarking of downscaling strategies within the downscaling research community, à la the land-modeling community, to better quantify downscaling dataset differences, strengths, and weaknesses for practitioners.

Hartke, Samantha H. (ORCID:0000000202394723)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Density of states prediction for materials discovery via contrastive learning from probabilistic embeddings

Abstract Machine learning for materials discovery has largely focused on predicting an individual scalar rather than multiple related properties, where spectral properties are an important example. Fundamental spectral properties include the phonon density of states (phDOS) and the electronic density of states (eDOS), which individually or collectively are the origins of a breadth of materials observables and functions. Building upon the success of graph attention networks for encoding crystalline materials, we introduce a probabilistic embedding generator specifically tailored to the prediction of spectral properties. Coupled with supervised contrastive learning, our materials-to-spectrum (Mat2Spec) model outperforms state-of-the-art methods for predicting ab initio phDOS and eDOS for crystalline materials. We demonstrate Mat2Spec’s ability to identify eDOS gaps below the Fermi energy, validating predictions with ab initio calculations and thereby discovering candidate thermoelectrics and transparent conductors. Mat2Spec is an exemplar framework for predicting spectral properties of materials via strategically incorporated machine learning techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic machine learning for battery health diagnostics and prognostics—review and perspectives

Abstract Diagnosing lithium-ion battery health and predicting future degradation is essential for driving design improvements in the laboratory and ensuring safe and reliable operation over a product’s expected lifetime. However, accurate battery health diagnostics and prognostics is challenging due to the unavoidable influence of cell-to-cell manufacturing variability and time-varying operating circumstances experienced in the field. Machine learning approaches informed by simulation, experiment, and field data show enormous promise to predict the evolution of battery health with use; however, until recently, the research community has focused on deterministic modeling methods, largely ignoring the cell-to-cell performance and aging variability inherent to all batteries. To truly make informed decisions regarding battery design in the lab or control strategies for the field, it is critical to characterize the uncertainty in a model’s predictions. After providing an overview of lithium-ion battery degradation, this paper reviews the current state-of-the-art probabilistic machine learning models for health diagnostics and prognostics. Details of the various methods, their advantages, and limitations are discussed in detail with a primary focus on probabilistic machine learning and uncertainty quantification. Last, future trends and opportunities for research and development are discussed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian experimental design and parameter estimation for ultrafast spin dynamics

Abstract Advanced experimental measurements are crucial for driving theoretical developments and unveiling novel phenomena in condensed matter and materials physics, which often suffer from the scarcity of large-scale facility resources, such as x-ray or neutron scattering centers. To address these limitations, we introduce a methodology that leverages the Bayesian optimal experimental design paradigm to efficiently uncover key quantum spin fluctuation parameters from x-ray photon fluctuation spectroscopy (XPFS) data. Our method is compatible with existing theoretical simulation pipelines and can also be used in combination with fast machine learning surrogate models in the event that real-time simulations are unfeasible. Our numerical benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance in predicting model parameters and in delivering more informative measurements within limited experimental time. Our method can be adapted to many different types of experiments beyond XPFS and spin fluctuation studies, facilitating more efficient data collection and accelerating scientific discoveries.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of short-read sequencing on the misassembly of a plant genome

Abstract Background Availability of plant genome sequences has led to significant advances. However, with few exceptions, the great majority of existing genome assemblies are derived from short read sequencing technologies with highly uneven read coverages indicative of sequencing and assembly issues that could significantly impact any downstream analysis of plant genomes. In tomato for example, 0.6% (5.1 Mb) and 9.7% (79.6 Mb) of short-read based assembly had significantly higher and lower coverage compared to background, respectively. Results To understand what the causes may be for such uneven coverage, we first established machine learning models capable of predicting genomic regions with variable coverages and found that high coverage regions tend to have higher simple sequence repeat and tandem gene densities compared to background regions. To determine if the high coverage regions were misassembled, we examined a recently available tomato long-read based assembly and found that 27.8% (1.41 Mb) of high coverage regions were potentially misassembled of duplicate sequences, compared to 1.4% in background regions. In addition, using a predictive model that can distinguish correctly and incorrectly assembled high coverage regions, we found that misassembled, high coverage regions tend to be flanked by simple sequence repeats, pseudogenes, and transposon elements. Conclusions Our study provides insights on the causes of variable coverage regions and a quantitative assessment of factors contributing to plant genome misassembly when using short reads and the generality of these causes and factors should be tested further in other species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Huge ensembles – Part 1: Design of ensemble weather forecasts using spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. Simulating low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1000–10 000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part 1, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on spherical Fourier neural operators (SFNOs), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest-growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. With large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states during the rollout, and the ML ensemble passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar extreme forecast indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating. These diagnostics ensure that the ensemble can reliably simulate the time evolution of the atmosphere, including low-likelihood high-impact extremes. In Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble initialized each day in summer 2023, and we characterize the simulations of extremes.

Mahesh, Ankur↗
DOE OSTI2021

Budget constrained machine learning for early prediction of adverse outcomes for COVID-19 patients

Abstract The combination of machine learning (ML) and electronic health records (EHR) data may be able to improve outcomes of hospitalized COVID-19 patients through improved risk stratification and patient outcome prediction. However, in resource constrained environments the clinical utility of such data-driven predictive tools may be limited by the cost or unavailability of certain laboratory tests. We leveraged EHR data to develop an ML-based tool for predicting adverse outcomes that optimizes clinical utility under a given cost structure. We further gained insights into the decision-making process of the ML models through an explainable AI tool. This cohort study was performed using deidentified EHR data from COVID-19 patients from ProMedica Health System in northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan. We tested the performance of various ML approaches for predicting either increasing ventilatory support or mortality. We performed post hoc analysis to obtain optimal feature sets under various budget constraints. We demonstrate that it is possible to achieve a significant reduction in cost at the expense of a small reduction in predictive performance. For example, when predicting ventilation, it is possible to achieve a 43% reduction in cost with only a 3% reduction in performance. Similarly, when predicting mortality, it is possible to achieve a 50% reduction in cost with only a 1% reduction in performance. This study presents a quick, accurate, and cost-effective method to evaluate risk of deterioration for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of clinical evaluation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗