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Results for “Yield Prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Detrimental effects and mitigation of the joint feature in double shell implosion simulations

Double shell capsules provide an attractive option in inertial confinement fusion experiments due to their potential for achieving a low-convergence, robust burn. However, these designs suffer from symmetry degradation and accompanying reduced fuel confinement due to the currently necessary joint between the two hemispheres of the outer shell. Here, the gap widens as a result of the excess ablation pressure produced by x rays that penetrate the joint during the drive phase, and this perturbation grows and imprints onto the inner shell during the collision. xRAGE Eulerian radiation-hydrodynamic simulations predict significant reductions in deuterium–tritium fusion yields compared to joint-less simulations when the depth of the outer joint is increased, whereas the performance is less sensitive to the depth of the inner gap. Here we examine the technique of plating the insides of the outer gap with a high-Z material to mitigate the impact of this feature. Gold-plating in quantities comparable to or exceeding the “missing” outer shell mass shows promise toward restoring both implosion symmetry and yield closer to the joint-less levels, and synthetic diagnostics suggest that high-energy x-ray radiographs can capture this shape retention of the inner and outer shells in experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Galaxy bias in the era of LSST: perturbative bias expansions

Upcoming imaging surveys will allow for high signal-to-noise measurements of galaxy clustering at small scales. In this work, we present the results of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) bias challenge, the goal of which is to compare the performance of different nonlinear galaxy bias models in the context of LSST Year 10 (Y10) data. Specifically, we compare two perturbative approaches, Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT) and Eulerian perturbation theory (EPT) to two variants of Hybrid Effective Field Theory (HEFT), with our fiducial implementation of these models including terms up to second order in the bias expansion as well as nonlocal bias and deviations from Poissonian stochasticity. Here, we consider a variety of different simulated galaxy samples and test the performance of the bias models in a tomographic joint analysis of LSST-Y10-like galaxy clustering, galaxy-galaxy-lensing and cosmic shear. We find both HEFT methods as well as LPT and EPT combined with non-perturbative predictions for the matter power spectrum to yield unbiased constraints on cosmological parameters up to at least a maximal scale of k max = 0.4 Mpc -1 for all samples considered, even in the presence of assembly bias. While we find that we can reduce the complexity of the bias model for HEFT without compromising fit accuracy, this is not generally the case for the perturbative models. We find significant detections of non-Poissonian stochasticity in all cases considered, and our analysis shows evidence that small-scale galaxy clustering predominantly improves constraints on galaxy bias rather than cosmological parameters. These results therefore suggest that the systematic uncertainties associated with current nonlinear bias models are likely to be subdominant compared to other sources of error for tomographic analyses of upcoming photometric surveys, which bodes well for future galaxy clustering analyses using these high signal-to-noise data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interplay between electron localization, magnetic order, and Jahn-Teller distortion dictates LiMnO2 phase stability

The development of manganese (Mn)-rich cathodes for Li-ion batteries promises to alleviate potential supply chain bottlenecks in battery manufacturing. Fundamental challenges in Mn-rich cathodes arise from phenomena such as structural changes due to cooperative Jahn-Teller (JT) distortions of in octahedral environments, Mn migration, and phase transformations to spinel-like order, all of which affect the electrochemical performance. These physically complex phenomena motivate an re-examination of the Li-Mn-O rock-salt space, with a focus on the thermodynamics of the prototypical, polymorphs. It is found that the generalized gradient approximation (GGA-PBEsol) and meta-GGA ( ) density functionals with empirically fitted on-site Hubbard corrections yield spurious stable phases for , such as predicting a phase with -like order ( ) to be the ground state instead of the orthorhombic (Pmmn) phase, which is the experimentally known ground state. Accounting for antiferromagnetic order in each structure is shown to have a substantial effect on the total energies and resulting phase stability. By using hybrid-GGA (HSE06) and GGA with self-consistent Hubbard parameters (on-site and inter-site ) calculated from linear response theory, the experimentally observed phase stability trends are recovered. The calculated on-site between Mn- states in the experimentally observed orthorhombic, layered, and spinel phases are significantly smaller than in and disordered layered structures, by within GGA. The smaller values of are shown to be correlated with a collinear ordering of JT distortions, in which all orbitals are oriented in the same direction. This cooperative JT effect can lead to greater electron delocalization from Mn along the states due to increased Mn-O covalency, which contributes to the greater electronic stability compared to the phases with noncollinear JT arrangements. The structures with collinear ordering of JT distortions also generate greater vibrational entropy, which helps stabilize these phases at high temperature. These phases are shown to be strongly insulating with large calculated band gaps , which are computed using HSE06 and .

Kam, Ronald L↗
DOE OSTI2021

Opening band gaps of low-dimensional materials at the meta-GGA level of density functional approximations

The quasiparticle band structure can be properly described by Hedin's GW approximation (GW), at a high computational cost. For band gaps, semilocal density functionals up to the generalized gradient approximation (GGA) level cannot compete with the accuracy of hybrid-based approximations or GW. Meta-GGA density functionals with a strong dependence on the kinetic energy density ingredient can potentially give wider band gaps compared with GGAs. The recent TASK meta-GGA density functional from Aschebrock and Kümmel [ Phys. Rev. Research 1 , 033082 (2019) ], is constructed with an enhanced nonlocality in the generalized Kohn-Sham scheme and therefore harbors great opportunities for band gap prediction. Although this approximation was found to yield excellent band gaps of bulk solids, this accuracy cannot be straightforwardly transferred to low-dimensional materials. Additionally, the reduced screening of these materials results in larger band gaps compared with their bulk counterparts, as an additional barrier to overcome. In this paper we demonstrate how the alteration of this functional affects the band gaps of monolayers and nanoribbons and present accurate band gaps competing with the revised Heyd-Scuseria-Ernzerhof (HSE06) approximation. In order to achieve this goal, we have modified the TASK functional (a) by changing the tight upper bound for one- or two-electron systems ( h X 0 ) from 1.174 to 1.29 and (b) by changing the limit of the interpolation function f X ( α → ∞ ) of the TASK functional that interpolates the exchange enhancement factor F X ( s , α ) from α = 0 to 1. The resulting modified TASK (mTASK) was tested for various materials from three dimensions to two dimensions to one dimension (nanoribbons) and was compared with the results of the higher-level hybrid functional HSE06 or with the G 0 W 0 approximation within many-body perturbation theory. We find that mTASK systematically improves the band gaps and band structures of two-dimensional (2D) and 1D systems, without significantly affecting the accuracy of the original TASK for the bulk 3D materials, when compared with the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof (PBE) GGA and the strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) meta-GGA. We further demonstrate the applicability of mTASK by assessing the band structures of transition metal dichalcogenide nanoribbons with respect to various bending curvatures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Challenges in Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian Neural Networks

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have not been broadly adopted in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). This paper initially reviews the main challenges in sampling from the parameter posterior of a neural network via MCMC. Such challenges culminate to lack of convergence to the parameter posterior. Nevertheless, this paper shows that a nonconverged Markov chain, generated via MCMC sampling from the parameter space of a neural network, can yield via Bayesian marginalization a valuable posterior predictive distribution of the output of the neural network. Further, classification examples based on multilayer perceptrons showcase highly accurate posterior predictive distributions. The postulate of limited scope for MCMC developments in BNNs is partially valid; an asymptotically exact parameter posterior seems less plausible, yet an accurate posterior predictive distribution is a tenable research avenue.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding the Impact of Memory Access Patterns in Intel Processors

Because of increasing complexity in the memory hierarchy, predicting the performance of a given application in a given processor is becoming more difficult. The problem is worsened by the fact that the hardware needed to deal with more complex memory traffic also affects energy consumption. Moreover, in a heterogeneous system with shared main memory, the memory traffic between the last level cache (LLC) and the memory creates contention between other processors and accelerator devices. For these reasons, it is important to investigate and understand the impact of different memory access patterns on the memory system. This study investigates the interplay between Intel processors' memory hierarchy and different memory access patterns in applications. The authors explore sequential streaming and strided memory access patterns with the objective of predicting LLC-dynamic random access memory (DRAM) traffic for a given application in given Intel architectures. Moreover, the impact of prefetching is also investigated in this study. Experiments with different Intel micro-architectures uncover mechanisms to predict LLC-DRAM traffic that can yield up to 99% accuracy for sequential streaming access patterns and up to 95% accuracy for strided access patterns.

Alaul haque monil, Mohammad↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated performance of large HDC-capsule implosions on the National Ignition Facility

In this paper, we report on eight, indirect-drive, deuterium–tritium-layered, inertial-confinement-fusion experiments at the National Ignition Facility to determine the largest capsule that can be driven symmetrically without relying on cross-beam energy transfer or advanced Hohlraum designs. Targets with inner radii of up to 1050 μm exhibited controllable P 2 symmetry, while larger capsules suffered from diminished equatorial drive. Reducing the Hohlraum gas-fill-density from 0.45 mg/cm 3 to 0.3 mg/cm 3 did not result in a favorable shift of P 2 amplitude as observed in preceding tuning experiments. Reducing the laser-entrance-hole diameter from 4 mm to 3.64 mm decreased polar radiation losses as expected, resulting in an oblate symmetry. The experiments exhibited the expected performance benefit from increased experimental scale, with yields at a fixed implosion velocity roughly following the predicted 1D dependence. With an inner radius of 1050 μm and a case-to-capsule-ratio of 3.0, experiment N181104 is the lowest implosion-velocity experiment to exceed a total neutron yield of 10 16 .

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fission Product Yields of 233 U and 239 Pu by Neutron-Induced Fission at Neutron Energies from 0.18-140 MeV [Slides]

Nuclear fission is an important process with applications in astrophysics, nuclear reactors, and stockpile stewardship. Despite having been discovered over 80 years ago, fission is not fully described by a predictive model. This study will show fission product mass yields and total kinetic energies (TKE) across a large range of incident neutron energies for future refinement of fission models. 233U(n,f) data is used to verify features and structures on a previous experiment and compared against fission models. 239Pu(n,f) data will be analyzed to show new data at higher neutron energies using techniques to handle fission in the presence of alphas. 252Cf(sf) data will be used for calibration and benchmarking with a thin-backed target.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Anion Resonances and Photoelectron Spectroscopy of the Tetracenyl Anion

The photoelectron spectroscopy of the tetracenyl anion using slow electron velocity-map imaging (SEVI) of cryogenically cooled ions is presented here. The total photodetachment yield as a function of photon energy is used to reveal a rich manifold of anion excited states above the detachment threshold. The lowest energy anionic resonance has a sufficiently long lifetime to yield a vibrationally resolved absorption spectrum that can be directly compared with theoretical predictions. Excitation of this state mostly results in electron detachment via thermionic emission. The total photodetachment yield spectrum is used to select photon wavelengths that minimize the indirect detachment signal to allow acquisition of vibrationally-resolved photoelectron spectra that can inform on the neutral tetracenyl radical. Assignment of spectral features corresponding to the ground and first excited state of the neutral 12-tetracenyl isomer is made with the aid of Franck-Condon simulations. This yields adiabatic electron affinity and term energies that differ significantly from the previously reported values. Weak features corresponding to the ground state of the minor 2-teracenyl and 1-tetracenyl isomers are also identified, which allows for the experimental determination of their electron affinities for the first time.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity Analysis of Genome-Scale Metabolic Flux Prediction

TRIMER, Transcription Regulation Integrated with MEtabolic Regulation, is a genome-scale modeling pipeline targeting at metabolic engineering applications. Using TRIMER, regulated metabolic reactions can be effectively predicted by integrative modeling of metabolic reactions with a Transcription Factor (TF)-gene regulatory network (TRN), which is modeled via a Bayesian network (BN). In this paper, we focus on sensitivity analysis of metabolic flux prediction for uncertainty quantification of BN structures for TRN modeling in TRIMER. We propose a computational strategy to construct the uncertainty class of TRN models based on the inferred regulatory order uncertainty given transcriptomic expression data. With that, we analyze the prediction sensitivity of the TRIMER pipeline for the metabolite yields of interest. The obtained sensitivity analyses can guide Optimal Experimental Design (OED) to help acquire new data that can enhance TRN modeling and achieve specific metabolic engineering objectives, including metabolite yield alterations. Here we have performed small- and large-scale simulated experiments, demonstrating the effectiveness of our developed sensitivity analysis strategy for BN structure learning to quantify the edge importance in terms of metabolic flux prediction uncertainty reduction and its potential to effectively guide OED.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A novel transfer learning framework for sorghum biomass prediction using UAV-based remote sensing data and genetic markers

Yield for biofuel crops is measured in terms of biomass, so measurements throughout the growing season are crucial in breeding programs, yet traditionally time- and labor-consuming since they involve destructive sampling. Modern remote sensing platforms, such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), can carry multiple sensors and collect numerous phenotypic traits with efficient, non-invasive field surveys. However, modeling the complex relationships between the observed phenotypic traits and biomass remains a challenging task, as the ground reference data are very limited for each genotype in the breeding experiment. In this study, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) model is proposed for sorghum biomass prediction. The architecture is designed to exploit the time series remote sensing and weather data, as well as static genotypic information. As a large number of features have been derived from the remote sensing data, feature importance analysis is conducted to identify and remove redundant features. A strategy to extract representative information from high-dimensional genetic markers is proposed. To enhance generalization and minimize the need for ground reference data, transfer learning strategies are proposed for selecting the most informative training samples from the target domain. Consequently, a pre-trained model can be refined with limited training samples. Field experiments were conducted over a sorghum breeding trial planted in multiple years with more than 600 testcross hybrids. The results show that the proposed LSTM-based RNN model can achieve high accuracies for single year prediction. Further, with the proposed transfer learning strategies, a pre-trained model can be refined with limited training samples from the target domain and predict biomass with an accuracy comparable to that from a trained-from-scratch model for both multiple experiments within a given year and across multiple years.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Beam-energy dependence of the production of light nuclei in Au + Au collisions

We study in the coalescence model the collision energy dependence of (anti-)deuteron and (anti- )triton production in the most central Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}} $ = 7.7, 11.5, 19.6, 27, 39, 62.4 and 200 GeV. The needed phase-space distribution of nucleons at the kinetic freeze-out is generated from a new 3D hybrid dynamical model (iEBE-MUSIC) by using a smooth crossover equation of state (EoS) without a QCD critical point. Our model calculations predict that the coalescence parameters of (anti-)deuteron (B 2 (d) and B 2 ($\bar{d}$)) decrease monotonically as the collision energy increases, and the light nuclei yield ratio N t N p /$Nd^{2}_{d}$ remains approximately a constant with respect to the collision energy. These calculated observables fail to reproduce the non-monotonic behavior of the corresponding data from the STAR Collaboration. Without including any effects of the critical point in our model, our results serve as the baseline predictions for the yields of light nuclei in the search for the possible QCD critical points from the experimental beam energy scan of heavy ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Overview of Wind Energy Production Prediction Bias, Losses, and Uncertainties

The financing of a wind farm directly relates to the preconstruction energy yield assessments which estimate the annual energy production for the farm. The accuracy and the precision of the preconstruction energy estimates can dictate the profitability of the wind project. Historically, the wind industry tended to overpredict the annual energy production of wind farms. Experts have been dedicated to eliminating such prediction errors in the past decade, and recently the industry is recording near-zero average energy prediction bias. Herein, we present an overview of the energy yield assessment errors across the global wind energy industry. We identify a long-term trend of reduction in the overprediction bias, whereas the uncertainty associated with the prediction error is prominent. We also summarize the recent advancements of the wind resource assessment process that justify the bias reduction, including the improvements in modeling and measurement techniques. Additionally, because the energy losses and uncertainties substantially influence the prediction error, we document and examine the estimated and observed loss and uncertainty values from the literature, according to the proposed framework in the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-15 wind resource assessment standard. From our findings, we highlight the opportunities for the industry to move forward, such as the validation and reduction of prediction uncertainty, and the prevention of energy losses caused by wake effect and environmental events. Overall, this study provides a summary on how the wind energy industry has been quantifying and reducing prediction errors, energy losses, and production uncertainties. Finally, for this work to be as reproducible as possible, we include all of the data used in the analysis in appendices to the manuscript.

literature review↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimentally Inferred Fusion Yield Dependencies of OMEGA Inertial Confinement Fusion Implosions

Statistical modeling of experimental and simulation databases has enabled the development of an accurate predictive capability for deuterium-tritium layered cryogenic implosions at the OMEGA laser. Here, a physics-based statistical mapping framework is described and used to uncover the dependencies of the fusion yield. This model is used to identify and quantify the degradation mechanisms of the fusion yield in direct-drive implosions on OMEGA. The yield is found to be reduced by the ratio of laser beam to target radius, the asymmetry in inferred ion temperatures from the $l$ = 1 mode, the time span over which tritium fuel has decayed, and parameters related to the implosion hydrodynamic stability. When adjusted for tritium decay and $l$ = 1 mode, the highest yield in OMEGA cryogenic implosions is predicted to exceed 2 × 10 14 fusion reactions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Relative molecular orientation can impact the onset of plasticity in molecular crystals

Abstract Creating or moving dislocations is the first step to dissipating mechanical energy via plastic deformation under contact loading. In molecular crystals there is both a lattice that defines crystal orientation and a relative orientation of the basis of the molecules. We define a normalization parameter which relates strain at yield, the hardness of the bulk crystal, and a distance parameter analogous to a Burgers vector that nominally predicts the relative ease of initiating plasticity in this broad class of materials. Analyzing the yield behavior of 10 different molecular crystals of varying space groups shows the inter-molecular orientation predicts the experimentally observed applied stress needed to nucleate dislocations. When molecules are oriented ‘parallel’ relative to one another the normalized maximum shear stress at the onset of plasticity is on the order of 3–5 times lower than when molecules within the crystal are ‘anti-parallel’, and molecules with a more equiaxed shape fall in between these bounds. This provides an initial indication of a structural feature which predicts the relative ease of initiating plasticity during contact loading in molecular crystals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Temporal covariance structure of multi-spectral phenotypes and their predictive ability for end-of-season traits in maize

Vegetation indices (VIs) derived from multi-spectral imaging (MSI) platforms can be used to study properties of crop canopy, providing non-destructive phenotypes that could be used to better understand growth curves throughout the growing season. To investigate the amount of variation present in several VIs and their relationship with important end-of-season traits, genetic and residual (co)variances for VIs, grain yield and moisture were estimated using data collected from maize hybrid trials. The VIs considered were Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Green NDVI, Red Edge NDVI, Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index, Enhanced Vegetation Index and simple Ratio of Near Infrared to Red (Red) reflectance. Genetic correlations of VIs with grain yield and moisture were used to fit multi-trait models for prediction of end-of-season traits and evaluated using within site/year cross-validation. To explore alternatives to fitting multiple phenotypes from MSI, random regression models with linear splines were fit using data collected in 2016 and 2017. Heritability estimates ranging from (0.10 to 0.82) were observed, indicating that there exists considerable amount of genetic variation in these VIs. Furthermore, strong genetic and residual correlations of the VIs, NDVI and NDRE, with grain yield and moisture were found. Considerable increases in prediction accuracy were observed from the multi-trait model when using NDVI and NDRE as a secondary trait. Finally, random regression with a linear spline function shows potential to be used as an alternative to mixed models to fit VIs from multiple time points.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Streamlining heterologous expression of top carbonic anhydrases in Escherichia coli : bioinformatic and experimental approaches

Carbonic anhydrase (CA) enzymes facilitate the reversible hydration of CO 2 to bicarbonate ions and protons. Identifying efficient and robust CAs and expressing them in model host cells, such as Escherichia coli, enables more efficient engineering of these enzymes for industrial CO 2 capture. However, expression of CAs in E. coli is challenging due to the possible formation of insoluble protein aggregates, or inclusion bodies. This makes the production of soluble and active CA protein a prerequisite for downstream applications. In this study, we streamlined the process of CA expression by selecting seven top CA candidates and used two bioinformatic tools to predict their solubility for expression in E. coli. The prediction results place these enzymes in two categories: low and high solubility. Our expression of high solubility score CAs (namely CA5-SspCA, CA6-SazCAtrunc, CA7-PabCA and CA8-PhoCA) led to significantly higher protein yields (5 to 75 mg purified protein per liter) in flask cultures, indicating a strong correlation between the solubility prediction score and protein expression yields. Furthermore, phylogenetic tree analysis demonstrated CA class-specific clustering patterns for protein solubility and production yields. Unexpectedly, we also found that the unique N-terminal, 11-amino acid segment found after the signal sequence (not present in its homologs), was essential for CA6-SazCA activity. Overall, this work demonstrated that protein solubility prediction, phylogenetic tree analysis, and experimental validation are potent tools for identifying top CA candidates and then producing soluble, active forms of these enzymes in E. coli. The comprehensive approaches we report here should be extendable to the expression of other heterogeneous proteins in E. coli.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling gas–shell mixing in ICF with separated reactants

Mixing between fuel and shell materials in ICF implosions can affect implosion dynamics and even prevent ignition. We use data from a series of separated reactant experiments on the National Ignition Facility to calibrate and test the predictive power of gas–shell mix models. Two models are used to estimate fuel–shell mix: a Reynolds-averaged turbulence model and molecular diffusion. Minor uncertainties in capsule manufacture, experimental conditions, and values for mix model parameters produce significant variation in simulation results. Using input/output pairs from 1D simulations, we train Gaussian process surrogate models to predict experimental quantities of interest. The surrogates are used to construct posteriors for mix model parameters by marginalizing over uncertainties in capsule manufacture and experimental conditions. Mix models are calibrated with a subset of experimental data (neutron yields, ion temperature, and bang time) and tested using the remaining data. In general, both the diffusion and turbulence model correctly predict experimental DT and TT neutron yields. Despite having more free parameters, the turbulence model underpredicts ion temperature at high convergence ratio. Furthermore, the simpler diffusion model correctly predicts these temperatures, suggesting nonhydrodynamic gas–shell mix. The computational model consistently overpredicts DD neutron yield, indicating possible shortcomings outside of the mix model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗