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At least 487 records · Page 27

India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 Summary of Scientific Results: Gas Hydrate Systems Along the Eastern Continental Margin of India

The India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02) discovered gas hydrate at high saturation in sand reservoirs at several sites in the deepwater Bay of Bengal. To assess the potential response of those deposits to scientific depressurization experiments, comprehensive geologic models were constructed to enable numerical simulation for two sites. Both sites (NGHP-02-09 and NGHP-02-16) feature thick sequences of thinly-interbedded reservoir and non-reservoir facies at sub-seafloor depths less than 300m and sub-sea depths of 2400m or more. These settings pose significant challenges to current modeling capabilities. First, the thinly-interbedded reservoir architecture complicates the determination of basic reservoir parameters from both log and core data due to measurement resolution issues. Secondly, the fine scale variation in sediment properties imparts great contrasts in key parameters over very short distances, creating high gradients at multiple scales and varying orientations that necessitate careful design of high-definition simulation grids. Thirdly, the deposits include internal sources of water, as well as a range of complex boundary conditions, including variable permeability within the overlying mud-rich “seals,” that complicate reservoir depressurization. Lastly, because of the unique combination of great water depth and relatively shallow sub-seafloor depth: models designed to maximize the dissociation rate impose large pressure drawdowns on relatively low-strength sediments. This condition renders the proper evaluation and integration of the geomechanical response to hydrate dissociation critical. In this report, we review the history of gas hydrate reservoir simulation, discuss methods for creating geologic input models, and summarize the key findings and implications of the collaborative NGHP-02 numerical simulation effort. Together, the studies confirm the viability of the modeled accumulations for scientific testing and identify key challenges related to the selection of specific test sites and the design of test wells.

Collett, Tim↗

Topographic distribution of clear-sky radiation over the Konza Prairie, Kansas

A method for exploring the topographic modulation of clear-sky incoming radiation using a two-stream atmospheric model together with digital elevation data is presented to obtain the temporal and spatial distribution of this energy. Utilizing this methodology for the Konza Prairie, it is observed that the variance and spatial autocorrelation of the simulated radiation data changed with sun angle and elevation grid spacing. An analytical formula that describes the behavior of the variance as a function of optical depth, sun angle, and mean terrain slope can be developed by considering direct solar radiation variability on a constant-slope terrain which has a uniform albedo and a uniform distribution of slopes. The decrease in mean slope and the increase in slope and autocorrelation is attributed to a loss of some of the shorter-wavelength terrain features at coarser grid spacings.

Dubayah, Ralph↗

Verification of a New NOAA/NSIDC Passive Microwave Sea-Ice Concentration Climate Record

A new satellite-based passive microwave sea-ice concentration product developed for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Climate Data Record (CDR) programme is evaluated via comparison with other passive microwave-derived estimates. The new product leverages two well-established concentration algorithms, known as the NASA Team and Bootstrap, both developed at and produced by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The sea ice estimates compare well with similar GSFC products while also fulfilling all NOAA CDR initial operation capability (IOC) requirements, including (1) self describing file format, (2) ISO 19115-2 compliant collection-level metadata,(3) Climate and Forecast (CF) compliant file-level metadata, (4) grid-cell level metadata (data quality fields), (5) fully automated and reproducible processing and (6) open online access to full documentation with version control, including source code and an algorithm theoretical basic document. The primary limitations of the GSFC products are lack of metadata and use of untracked manual corrections to the output fields. Smaller differences occur from minor variations in processing methods by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (for the CDR fields) and NASA (for the GSFC fields). The CDR concentrations do have some differences from the constituent GSFC concentrations, but trends and variability are not substantially different.

Passive Microwave↗

Methane monitoring and detection apparatus and methods

A low cost, low power, passive optical methane monitoring system for fixed-position installation at oil and gas production well pads and gathering centers is disclosed. The optical methane monitoring system disclosed can be a scannable field of view Near Infrared (NIR) filter photometer to detect and quantify methane concentration in a two dimensional or a three dimensional grid above and around a facility. A randomized fiber optic bundle is disclosed that can be used to direct the total optical power from a collection lens to two or more isolated optical channels. Band pass filters isolate a desired wavelength range for transmission measurements for the two or more channels. Also disclosed is an absorption algorithm which accounts for variable background spectral intensity as well as correcting for water vapor and overall scattering effects to measure methane concentration for a given field of view.

Lievois, John↗

Exploring the Use of Non‐Invasive Drone‐Based Ground‐Penetrating Radar (GPR) to Characterize Biogenic Gas Dynamics in Subtropical Peat Soils

Peat soils are a critical component of the global carbon cycle as natural producers of biogenic greenhouse gases (e.g., methane and carbon dioxide) that accumulate within the soil and are released to the atmosphere. Previous studies have showed the ability of ground-based minimally-invasive geophysical methods such as ground-penetrating radar (GPR) to characterize carbon dynamics in peat soils. However, ground-based GPR is limited by scale of measurement and soil disturbance potentially altering gas releases during deployment. Here, we explore the potential of drone-based GPR for identification of hot spots and hot moments of gas accumulation and release in subtropical soils. Here, we collected drone-based GPR data sets across two grids (∼17,500 m 2 ) in the Everglades during January (dry season), September, and November (wet season) of 2023 to characterize peat thickness and seasonal variability of gas content. Results show that drone-based GPR is effective and efficient for: (a) capturing the temporal variation of in situ biogenic gas content in peat soils with changes between 1% and 25 % volumetric gas content over repeatable grids; (b) inferring a total peat thickness between 0.8 and 1.2 m; and (c) estimating flux releases of 63 and 135 mg CH 4 m −2 day −1 for specific locations and periods that are strikingly consistent with our coincident gas trap measurements. This work also indicates that (a) spatial distribution of gas content in the Everglades is strongly controlled by landscape morphology such as ridges and sloughs and (b) the temporal variation of gas content is seasonal with increased gas production during the wet season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ultra-Short-Term Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Renewable Resources: An Attention Temporal Convolutional Network Based Approach

The rapid increase in the penetration of renewable energy resources characterized by high variability and uncertainty is bringing new challenges to the power system operation. To ensure the efficient and reliable operation of electric grid, an accurate and general short-term forecasting algorithm with interpretability is desired. Moreover, the extensive off-site information provided by the proliferation of new renewable plants stimulates the interests in the spatiotemporal forecasting. In this paper, an attention temporal convolutional network, which is built on stacked dilated causal convolutional networks and attention mechanisms, is proposed to perform the ultra-short-term spatiotemporal forecasting of renewable resources. Compared with the existing spatiotemporal forecasting methods, the presented model needs no domain knowledge and can be applied to different forecasting tasks such as solar generation and wind speed forecasting. Here, the attention mechanism improves the interpretability. The algorithm can be used to produce both point and probabilistic forecasts. Numerical results on the data sets from National Renewable Energy Laboratory show superior performance over five baselines, in terms of skill scores. Compared with the baselines, the average improvements of accuracy introduced by the proposed method for the point and probabilistic forecasting are 15.08% and 15.85%, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

System and Component Development of Particle-Based Pumped Thermal Energy Storage

Reliable power supply from variable renewable resources requires energy storage at various scales to overcome resource intermittency. Long-duration energy storage (LDES, 10-100 hours) can improve dispatchability and grid reliability with increasing levels of renewable power supply. Thermal energy storage (TES) has siting flexibility and the ability to store a large capacity of energy, and thus has the potential to meet the LDES need and provide charging and discharging durations beyond the economic capacity of conventional batteries. TES technology has evolved from concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) generation and is recognized as an economic large-scale energy storage method. A standalone electric-thermal energy storage system supporting renewable integration of wind and solar power without CSP solar field can firm renewable generation and boost overall grid resilience and security.

concentrating solar thermal power↗

Quadrature Moments Method for the Simulation of Turbulent Reactive Flows

A sub-filter model for reactive flows, namely the DQMOM model, was formulated for Large Eddy Simulation (LES) using the filtered mass density function. Transport equations required to determine the location and size of the delta-peaks were then formulated for a 2-peak decomposition of the FDF. The DQMOM scheme was implemented in an existing structured-grid LES solver. Simulations of scalar shear layer using an experimental configuration showed that the first and second moments of both reactive and inert scalars are in good agreement with a conventional Lagrangian scheme that evolves the same FDF. Comparisons with LES simulations performed using laminar chemistry assumption for the reactive scalar show that the new method provides vast improvements at minimal computational cost. Currently, the DQMOM model is being implemented for use with the progress variable/mixture fraction model of Pierce. Comparisons with experimental results and LES simulations using a single-environment for the progress-variable are planned. Future studies will aim at understanding the effect of increase in environments on predictions.

Raman, Venkatramanan↗

GMS-based"Future Time" Rainfall Data Assimilation for Mesoscale Weather Prediction over Korean Peninsula and Future Prospects with GPM Satellite Measurements

This study examines the use of satellite-derived nowcasted (short-term forecasted) rainfall over 3-hour time periods to gain an equivalent time increment in initializing a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model used for predicting convective rainfall events over the Korean peninsula. Infrared (IR) window measurements from the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) are used to specify latent heating for a spinup period of the model - but in future time -- thus initializing in advance of actual time in the framework of a prediction scenario. The main scientific objective of the study is to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of this approach insofar as data assimilation, in which the nowcasted assimilation data are derived independently of the prognostic model itself. Although there have been various recent improvements in formulating the dynamics, thermodynamics, and microphysics of mesoscale models, as well as computer advances which allow the use of high resolution cloud-resolving grids and explicit latent heating over regional domains, spinup remains at the forefront of unresolved mesoscale modeling problems. In general, non-realistic spinup limits the skill in predicting the spatial-temporal distribution of convection and precipitation, primarily in the early hours of a. forecast, stemming from standard prognostic variables not representing the initial diabatic heating field produced by the ambient convection and cloud fields. The long-term goal of this research is to improve short-range (12-hour) quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) over the Korean peninsula through the use of innovative data assimilation methods based on geosynchronous satellite measurements. As a step in th~s direction, a non-standard data assimilation experiment in conjunction with GMS-retrieved nowcasted rainfall information introduced to the mesoscale model is conducted. The 3-hourly precipitation forecast information is assimilated through nudging the associated diabatic heating during the early stages of a forecast period. This procedure is expected to enhance details in the moisture field during model integration, and thus improve spinup performance, assuming the errors in the future time latent heating data ate less than intrinsic model background errors.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Validating a large geophysical data set: Experiences with satellite-derived cloud parameters

We are validating the global cloud parameters derived from the satellite-borne HIRS2 and MSU atmospheric sounding instrument measurements, and are using the analysis of these data as one prototype for studying large geophysical data sets in general. The HIRS2/MSU data set contains a total of 40 physical parameters, filling 25 MB/day; raw HIRS2/MSU data are available for a period exceeding 10 years. Validation involves developing a quantitative sense for the physical meaning of the derived parameters over the range of environmental conditions sampled. This is accomplished by comparing the spatial and temporal distributions of the derived quantities with similar measurements made using other techniques, and with model results. The data handling needed for this work is possible only with the help of a suite of interactive graphical and numerical analysis tools. Level 3 (gridded) data is the common form in which large data sets of this type are distributed for scientific analysis. We find that Level 3 data is inadequate for the data comparisons required for validation. Level 2 data (individual measurements in geophysical units) is needed. A sampling problem arises when individual measurements, which are not uniformly distributed in space or time, are used for the comparisons. Standard 'interpolation' methods involve fitting the measurements for each data set to surfaces, which are then compared. We are experimenting with formal criteria for selecting geographical regions, based upon the spatial frequency and variability of measurements, that allow us to quantify the uncertainty due to sampling. As part of this project, we are also dealing with ways to keep track of constraints placed on the output by assumptions made in the computer code. The need to work with Level 2 data introduces a number of other data handling issues, such as accessing data files across machine types, meeting large data storage requirements, accessing other validated data sets, processing speed and throughput for interactive graphical work, and problems relating to graphical interfaces.

Kahn, Ralph↗

Design and Operation of Energy Systems with Large Amounts of Variable Generation: IEA Wind TCP Task 25 (Final Summary Report)

This report summarizes findings on wind integration from the 17 countries or sponsors participating in the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Program (IEA Wind TCP) Task 25 from 2006-2020. Both real experience and studies are reported. Many wind integration studies incorporate solar energy, and most of the results discussed here are valid for other variable renewables in addition to wind. The national case studies address several impacts of wind power on electric power systems. In this report, they are grouped under long-term planning issues and short-term operational impacts. Long-term planning issues include grid planning and capacity adequacy. Short-term operational impacts include reliability, stability, reserves, and maximizing the value of wind in operational timescales (balancing related issues). The first section presents the variability and uncertainty of power system-wide wind power, and the last section presents recent studies toward 100% shares of renewables. The appendix provides a summary of ongoing research in the national projects contributing to Task 25 for 2021-2024. The design and operation of power and energy systems is an evolving field. As ambitious targets toward net-zero carbon energy systems are announced globally, many scenarios are being made regarding how to reach these future decarbonized energy systems, most of them involving large amounts of variable renewables, mainly wind and solar energy. The secure operation of power systems is increasingly challenging, and the impacts of variable renewables, new electrification loads together with increased distribution system resources will lead to somewhat different challenges for different systems. Tools and methods to study future power and energy systems also need to evolve, and both short-term operational aspects (such as power system stability) and long-term aspects (such as resource adequacy) will probably see new paradigms of operation and design. The experience of operating and planning systems with large amounts of variable generation is accumulating, and research to tackle the challenges of inverter-based, nonsynchronous generation is on the way. Energy transition and digitalization also bring new flexibility opportunities, both short and long term.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Machine learning surrogate of physics-based building-stock simulator for end-use load forecasting

Building energy models are used to simulate heat and mass transfer and estimate end-use load in buildings. With the proliferation of solar photovoltaics on residential and commercial buildings, increasingly, buildings are expected to provide grid services, for which accurate and computationally efficient building energy simulations and end-use load prediction are imperative. Existing building energy simulation tools, however, have significant computational overhead that make them less practical in real-time deployment for optimization, design, uncertainty quantification and control in building energy management systems. Here this article presents a data-driven machine learning model based on light gradient boosting method (LightGBM) as a surrogate for a physics-based simulator for residential buildings to predict end-use load. The machine learning based surrogate model accounts for time-series related variables, seasonality and trend component of end-use load, and history of end-use load. The accuracy of the surrogate model is assessed on the prediction of the load profiles of 100 different houses in Cook County, Illinois, USA. The LightGBM surrogate model is shown to reduce the root-mean-squared error by 53% relative to a reference decision tree (DT) based model reported previously in the literature. Moreover, the model predicts the load spikes and high-ramp rate events throughout the year which are often the Achilles heel of other models in the literature. The machine learning based surrogate model is demonstrated to be computationally efficient, with a ten-fold reduction in the computational time compared to a physics-based building energy simulation, and suitable for uncertainty analysis and real-time control of building characteristics in response to uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

CFD Predictions of Sonic-Boom Characteristics for Unmodified and Modified SR-71 Configurations

Shaped sonic-boom signatures refer to signatures that look something other than the typical N-waves. Shaped sonic-boom signatures such as "flat-top," "ramp-type," or "hybrid-type" waveforms have been shown to reduce the subjective loudness without requiring reductions in overpressure peaks. The shaping of sonic-boom signatures requires increasing the shock rise time and changes in frequency spectra. So far, a flat-top waveform was shown to be achievable in wind tunnels; however, the influence of long propagation distance and real atmosphere on shaped signatures should be addressed using flight tests. Two different approaches have been proposed for sonic-boom minimization flight tests. The first approach, proposed by Eagle Aerospace, is for a flight test using a modified BQM-34 "FIREBEE" remotely piloted vehicle. The 30-foot long FIREBEE has a steady state flight condition at the Mach number and altitude of interest, and it can be recovered by helicopter from the water. As an alternative approach, a modified SR-71 vehicle has been proposed by the McDonnell Douglas Corporation. Benefits of the SR-71 include its variable geometry supersonic inlets, small cockpit bulge, higher Mach number capabilities, slender design, and longer length (105 foot). The present investigation addresses the sonic-boom analysis for the second vehicle.The objective of the current investigation is to assess the feasibility of a modified SR-71 configuration, with McDonnell Douglas-designed fuselage modifications, intended to produce shaped sonic-boom signatures on the ground. The present study describes the use of a higher-order computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method to predict the sonic-boom characteristics for both unmodified and modified SR-71 configurations. An Euler unstructured grid methodology is used to predict the near-field, three-dimensional pressure patterns generated by both SR-71 models. The computed near-field pressure signatures are extrapolated to specified distances below the aircraft down to impingement on the ground using the code MDBOOM. Comparisons of the near-field pressure signatures with available flight-test data are presented in the current paper.

Fouladi, Kamran↗

Effects of turbulence mixing, variable properties, and vaporization on spray droplet combustion

Combustion of liquid fuels in the form of spray droplets is simulated numerically. Various vaporization models are examined as to their performance in finite element calculations involving a turbulent flow field. The Eulerian coordinate for the gas and Lagrangian coordinate for the liquid spray droplets are coupled through source terms being updated in the equations of continuity, momentum, and energy. The k-epsilon and modified eddy breakup models are used for simulating turbulent spray combustion flow field. Numerical results for the droplet trajectories, droplet heating, recirculation characteristics, and effects of evaporation models are evaluated. It is also shown that the finite element method is advantageous in dealing with complex geometries, complex boundary conditions, adaptive unstructured grids.

Kim, Y. M.↗

Multiscale design of nonlinear materials using a Eulerian shape optimization scheme

Motivated by recent advances in manufacturing, the design of materials is the focal point of interest in the material research community. One of the critical challenges in this field is finding optimal material microstructure for a desired macroscopic response. This work presents a computational method for the mesoscale-level design of particulate composites for an optimal macroscale-level response. The method relies on a custom shape optimization scheme to find the extrema of a nonlinear cost function subject to a set of constraints. Three key “modules” constitute the method: multiscale modeling, sensitivity analysis, and optimization. Multiscale modeling relies on a classical homogenization method and a nonlinear NURBS-based generalized finite element scheme to efficiently and accurately compute the structural response of particulate composites using a nonconformal discretization. A three-parameter isotropic damage law is used to model microstructure-level failure. An analytical sensitivity method is developed to compute the derivatives of the cost/constraint functions with respect to the design variables that control the microstructure's geometry. The derivation uncovers subtle but essential new terms contributing to the sensitivity of finite element shape functions and their spatial derivatives. Several structural problems are solved to demonstrate the applicability, performance, and accuracy of the method for the design of particulate composites with a desired macroscopic nonlinear stress-strain response.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Distributed Relaxation for Conservative Discretizations

A multigrid method is defined as having textbook multigrid efficiency (TME) if the solutions to the governing system of equations are attained in a computational work that is a small (less than 10) multiple of the operation count in one target-grid residual evaluation. The way to achieve this efficiency is the distributed relaxation approach. TME solvers employing distributed relaxation have already been demonstrated for nonconservative formulations of high-Reynolds-number viscous incompressible and subsonic compressible flow regimes. The purpose of this paper is to provide foundations for applications of distributed relaxation to conservative discretizations. A direct correspondence between the primitive variable interpolations for calculating fluxes in conservative finite-volume discretizations and stencils of the discretized derivatives in the nonconservative formulation has been established. Based on this correspondence, one can arrive at a conservative discretization which is very efficiently solved with a nonconservative relaxation scheme and this is demonstrated for conservative discretization of the quasi one-dimensional Euler equations. Formulations for both staggered and collocated grid arrangements are considered and extensions of the general procedure to multiple dimensions are discussed.

Diskin, Boris↗

Renewable Energy Potential Model: Hawaii Geothermal Supply Curves

This dataset extends the development of the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model to include geothermal energy, with a specific focus on Hawaii. Provided here are the results of two scenarios that were modeled for geothermal energy in Hawaii: binary enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) at a depth of 2.5 km and hydrothermal binary systems at a depth of 1.5 km. The resource data for both scenarios were derived from Lautze and Haskins (2024) using an exponential method. The PFA probability of heat map was used as a look up table for which temperature gradient to use (Lautze and Haskins, 2024). The dataset provides geospatial and techno-economic details for evaluating geothermal energy potential. It includes spatial coordinates, estimated capacity factors, developable area, resource potential, and annual energy production metrics. Economic details such as levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), site development costs, transmission costs, and fixed-charge rates are also included. The reV model, originally developed for wind and solar energy, incorporates these variables to evaluate deployment constraints related to land use, environmental and cultural factors, and grid integration.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Assessing dual continuum method for multicomponent reactive transport

The subsurface flow and reactive transport code PFLOTRAN can accommodate fracture–matrix interaction for multicomponent reactive transport using a Dual Continuum formulation. In this work we present two examples to assess this approach. Through these examples, we also illustrate how this Dual Continuum model can be parameterised and what kind of grid spacing is needed to accurately capture reactive transport in the secondary continuum. The results of the calculations show that when geochemical reactions in the matrix (or the secondary continuum) are included, a very fine grid spacing close to the fracture–matrix interface is required to properly capture geochemical gradients at the interface. We also show that one can reduce the computational cost by using a variable grid spacing, that limits the total number in the secondary continuum, and yet obtain accurate results. Furthermore, this feature makes the Dual Continuum approach suitable for large-scale reactive transport modelling in fractured crystalline rock.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗