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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Fall 2023 Solar Industry Update [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry. This quarter we also provide additional analysis on the domestic content of U.S. PV installations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Range-wide population assessments for subalpine fir indicate widespread disturbance-driven decline

Subalpine forests in western North America are threatened by rapid climate change, increased activity by endemic and exotic insects and diseases, and changing wildfire regimes. The interactive effects of these stressors have resulted in pronounced population declines in many subalpine tree species; however, a systematic assessment of the status and trends of subalpine forests is lacking. Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) is a widespread species across the western United States, with documented population declines in many parts of its distribution. Here we use subalpine fir as an initial leverage point to build a more complete understanding of subalpine forest baseline conditions and responses to environmental change. Specifically, we leverage the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to (1) ask how subalpine fir populations are changing across the species’ distribution in the western US, (2) assess the drivers of recent subalpine fir population trends, and (3) explore whether those changes imply generalized species-wide and/or system-wide decline. We found that subalpine fir abundance and basal area are declining concurrently across ~ 62% of the species’ distribution, and increasing across ~ 19%. Range-wide, we estimated 25.02 ± 2.74 % subalpine fir mortality between 2000 and 2009 and 2010–2019 FIA inventory periods, with higher mortality concentrated in the eastern Oregon Cascades, central Idaho, and parts of southern Colorado. High regeneration density did not predict positive population trajectories, which were instead associated with higher rates of adult recruitment. While the importance of different mortality agents varied substantially between ecoregions, 83.4% of total range-wide mortality was related to fire or biological disturbance. Declining subalpine fir basal area coincided with declines in the basal area of other co-occurring tree species in 39% of subalpine forest area, and with increases in conspecific basal area in 22% of forest area. Fire disturbance was the single largest cause of subalpine fir mortality; however, even where subalpine fir fire mortality was high, mortality among other species was primarily caused by insects. In conclusion, our results suggest that subalpine fir declines across large portions of the western United States are driven by forest disturbance, and that declines in subalpine fir populations may be indicative of negative change in subalpine forest systems broadly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The impact of fuel and injection strategy on combustion characteristics, emissions and efficiency in gasoline compression ignition operation

Gasoline compression ignition in diesel engines has been proposed in order to meet increasingly stringent emission regulations without sacrificing efficiency. In this study, a six-cylinder heavy-duty diesel engine was operated in a mixing controlled gasoline compression ignition mode to investigate the influence of fuels and injection strategies on the combustion characteristics, emissions, and thermal efficiencies. Fuels, including ethanol (E), isobutanol (IB), and diisobutylene (DIB), were blended with a gasoline fuel to form E10, E30, IB30, and DIB30 based on volumetric fraction. These four blends along with gasoline formed the five test fuels. With these fuels, three injections strategies were investigated, including late pilot injection, early pilot injection, and port fuel injection/direct injection. The impact of moderate exhaust gas recirculation on nitrogen oxides and soot emissions was examined to determine the most promising fuel/injection strategy for emissions reduction. In addition, first and second law analyses were performed to provide insights into the efficiency, loss, and exergy destruction of the various gasoline fuel blends at low and medium load conditions. Overall, the emission output, thermal efficiency, and combustion performances of the five fuels were found to be similar and their differences are modest under most test conditions. E30 with the port/direct fuel injection strategy obtained the peak brake thermal efficiency (46.9%) and gross indicated thermal efficiency (52.2%) at 14 bar. At 7 bar, the peak brake thermal efficiency (44.2%) and gross indicated thermal efficiency (52.5%) also belonged to E30 with the late pilot injection strategy. The second law analysis revealed that exergy destruction was mostly influenced by the fuel type and not by the injection strategy for the 14 bar operating conditions. However, the opposite trend was observed for the 7 bar case. In addition, port fuel injection in combination with oxygenated fuel blends was found to be helpful to suppress soot emissions for operation with exhaust gas recirculation.

co-optima fuels↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of methodologies used to determine aromatic lignin unit ratios in lignocellulosic biomass

Abstract Background Multiple analytical methods have been developed to determine the ratios of aromatic lignin units, particularly the syringyl/guaiacyl (S/G) ratio, of lignin biopolymers in plant cell walls. Chemical degradation methods such as thioacidolysis produce aromatic lignin units that are released from certain linkages and may induce chemical changes rendering it difficult to distinguish and determine the source of specific aromatic lignin units released, as is the case with nitrobenzene oxidation methodology. NMR methods provide powerful tools used to analyze cell walls for lignin composition and linkage information. Pyrolysis-mass spectrometry methods are also widely used, particularly as high-throughput methodologies. However, the different techniques used to analyze aromatic lignin unit ratios frequently yield different results within and across particular studies, making it difficult to interpret and compare results. This also makes it difficult to obtain meaningful insights relating these measurements to other characteristics of plant cell walls that may impact biomass sustainability and conversion metrics for the production of bio-derived fuels and chemicals. Results The authors compared the S/G lignin unit ratios obtained from thioacidolysis, pyrolysis-molecular beam mass spectrometry (py-MBMS), HSQC liquid-state NMR and solid-state (ss) NMR methodologies of pine, several genotypes of poplar, and corn stover biomass. An underutilized approach to deconvolute ssNMR spectra was implemented to derive S/G ratios. The S/G ratios obtained for the samples did not agree across the different methods, but trends were similar with the most agreement among the py-MBMS, HSQC NMR and deconvoluted ssNMR methods. The relationship between S/G, thioacidolysis yields, and linkage analysis determined by HSQC is also addressed. Conclusions This work demonstrates that different methods using chemical, thermal, and non-destructive NMR techniques to determine native lignin S/G ratios in plant cell walls may yield different results depending on species and linkage abundances. Spectral deconvolution can be applied to many hardwoods with lignin dominated by S and G units, but the results may not be reliable for some woody and grassy species of more diverse lignin composition. HSQC may be a better method for analyzing lignin in those species given the wealth of information provided on additional aromatic moieties and bond linkages. Additionally, trends or correlations in lignin characteristics such as S/G ratios and lignin linkages within the same species such as poplar may not necessarily exhibit the same trends or correlations made across different biomass types. Careful consideration is required when choosing a method to measure S/G ratios and the benefits and shortcomings of each method discussed here are summarized.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stability optimization of energetic particle driven modes in nuclear fusion devices: the FAR3d gyro-fluid code

The development of reduced models provide efficient methods that can be used to perform short term experimental data analysis or narrow down the parametric range of more sophisticated numerical approaches. Reduced models are derived by simplifying the physics description with the goal of retaining only the essential ingredients required to reproduce the phenomena under study. This is the role of the gyro-fluid code FAR3d, dedicated to analyze the linear and nonlinear stability of Alfvén Eigenmodes (AE), Energetic Particle Modes (EPM) and magnetic-hydrodynamic modes as pressure gradient driven mode (PGDM) and current driven modes (CDM) in nuclear fusion devices. Such analysis is valuable for improving the plasma heating efficiency and confinement; this can enhance the overall device performance. The present review is dedicated to a description of the most important contributions of the FAR3d code in the field of energetic particles (EP) and AE/EPM stability. FAR3d is used to model and characterize the AE/EPM activity measured in fusion devices as LHD, JET, DIII-D, EAST, TJ-II and Heliotron J. In addition, the computational efficiency of FAR3d facilitates performing massive parametric studies leading to the identification of optimization trends with respect to the AE/EPM stability. This can aid in identifying operational regimes where AE/EPM activity is avoided or minimized. This technique is applied to the analysis of optimized configurations with respect to the thermal plasma parameters, magnetic field configuration, external actuators and the effect of multiple EP populations. In addition, the AE/EPM saturation phase is analyzed, taking into account both steady-state phases and bursting activity observed in LHD and DIII-D devices. The nonlinear calculations provide: the induced EP transport, the generation of zonal structures as well as the energy transfer towards the thermal plasma and between different toroidal/helical families. Finally, FAR3d is used to forecast the AE/EPM stability in operational scenarios of future devices as ITER, CFETR, JT60SA and CFQS as well as possible approaches to optimization with respect to variations in the most important plasma parameters.

Alfv én Eigenmodes↗
DOE OSTI2021

Continental-Scale Geographic Trends in Barometric-Pumping Efficiency Potential: A North American Case Study

Barometric pumping is a gas transport mechanism that has important implications for many applications involving subsurface gas seepage processes. Here, this study provides the first continental-scale analysis of barometric-pumping efficiency potential based on meteorology. We quantified the barometric-pumping efficiency potential at 1,257 locations across the continental US and Canada. The results provide continental-scale geographic dependencies of barometric-pumping efficiency potential, indicating a significant correlation with latitude and a nonlinear dependence on longitude. The analysis also indicates that variability in barometric-pumping efficiency potential decreases with distance from the coast and as elevation increases. Locations far from the coastline are more likely to have upper mid-range potentials, while higher elevation locations are more likely to have low potentials. The highest barometric-pumping efficiency potentials are mostly found around the Gulf of St. Lawrence around 50°N. Locations along the Atlantic coast exhibit large-scale variations in potentials with a clear increasing trend with latitude.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projecting climate change in South America using variable‐resolution Community Earth System Model: An application to Chile

Abstract We introduce variable‐resolution enabled Community Earth System Model (VR‐CESM) results simulating historical and future climate conditions at 28 km over South America and 14 km over the Andes. Three 30‐year simulations are performed: a historic (1985–2014), a near future (2030–2059), and an end‐century (2070–2099) simulation under the RCP8.5 scenario. Historic results compare favourably to several temperature and precipitation reanalysis products, though local biases are present, particularly during austral summer. Future simulations highlight broad warming patterns (+3–6°C by end‐century) and heterogeneous precipitation responses across South America that qualitatively agree with prior modelling efforts. Our results reveal that the interaction between temperature and precipitation changes produce shifts in several Köppen–Geiger climates. Notable changes include the near‐elimination of the Andean Tundra or Alpine climates, a 15% decrease in Tropical Rainforests and a Tropical Savannah expansion of 20%. To provide a regionally focused analysis of projected climate change and to illustrate the benefits of variable resolution modelling, we analyse changes in the magnitude and trend in seasonal and daily temperature and precipitation in Chile. We also examined several metrics [e.g., snow water equivalent (SWE), temperatures on wet days, and days below 0°C] to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on the Chilean cryosphere between the end‐of‐century and historic periods, finding wide‐ranging indications of cryospheric decline. These changes are interpreted through reductions in the timing (1–2.5 months earlier peak SWE) and magnitude (200–1,000 mm SWE decreases) of water stored as snow in the Andes, a 10–30% decrease in number of cool season wet days with temperatures below 1°C, and 50–200 fewer days (annually) with minimum temperatures below 0°C. Our aim in producing a high‐resolution dataset of climate projections from VR‐CESM is to support analyses of climate change throughout South America but especially in vulnerable montane regions and to provide additional results for comparison with previous, ongoing, and upcoming modelling efforts.

variable-resolution global climate models↗
DOE OSTI2021

Possibility of an integrated transmission electron microscope: enabling complex in-situ experiments

Abstract Multimodal in-situ experiments are the wave of the future, as this approach will permit multispectral data collection and analysis during real-time nanoscale observation. In contrast, the evolution of technique development in the electron microscopy field has generally trended toward specialization and subsequent bifurcation into more and more niche instruments, creating a challenge for reintegration and backward compatibility for in-situ experiments on state-of-the-art microscopes. We do not believe this to be a requirement in the field; therefore, we propose an adaptive instrument that is designed to allow nearly simultaneous collection of data from aberration-corrected transmission electron microscopy (TEM), probe-corrected scanning transmission electron microscopy, ultrafast TEM, and dynamic TEM with a flexible in-situ testing chamber, where the entire instrument can be modified as future technologies are developed. The value would be to obtain a holistic understanding of the underlying physics and chemistry of the process-structure–property relationships in materials exposed to controlled extreme environments. Such a tool would permit the ability to explore, in-situ, the active reaction mechanisms in a controlled manner emulating those of real-world applications with nanometer and nanosecond resolution. If such a powerful tool is developed, it has the potential to revolutionize our materials understanding of nanoscale mechanisms and transients. Graphical Abstract

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Software Tools for Energy Storage Valuation and Design

Abstract Purpose of Review As the application space for energy storage systems (ESS) grows, it is crucial to valuate the technical and economic benefits of ESS deployments. Since there are many analytical tools in this space, this paper provides a review of these tools to help the audience find the proper tools for their energy storage analyses. Recent Findings There are many software tools for valuating ESS. These tools can be classified into two groups: (1) power system simulation and planning tools for analyzing the technical contributions of ESSs, and (2) techno-economic analysis tools for valuating the economic benefits of ESS deployment and specifying the optimal design of energy systems that include ESSs. While many of the tools, developed by the national laboratories, are free to use, the commercial tools are also of great importance in meeting the customers’ specific needs. Summary This paper provides a review of software tools for ESS valuation and design. A review of analysis tools for evaluating the technical impacts of energy storage deployments is also provided, as well as a discussion of development trends for valuation and design tools.

Nguyen, Tu A. (ORCID:0000000181148063)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mechanical evaluation of WC-Co materials with varying microstructures

Tungsten carbide–cobalt materials are useful in a variety of extreme applications due to a desirable blend of properties, yet the technology has not significantly changed since their initial development in the 1920s. The mechanical properties of this class of materials is highly dependent on two variables, the size of the tungsten carbide grains, and the amount of binder phase present in the final body. In this study, the amount of binder phase is isolated across three commercial materials from the same manufacturer with three different grain sizes to investigate the effect on mechanical properties. The mechanical properties investigated are indentation hardness, flexure and tensile strength, as well as fracture toughness. In general, an increase in hardness and tensile strength with decreasing grain size was observed, while the fracture toughness showed the opposite trend with toughness increasing with increasing grain size. The flexure strength results did not show a correlation to grain size. Fractographic analysis identified the dominant strength-limiting flaw for each sample, which largely were in the form of porosity. Other flaws types, such as inclusions from the milling process, clusters of large grains, and machining cracks from the surface finishing process, were also identified. Finally, Weibull analysis was performed and deemed appropriate for analysis of these materials, but strength-size scaling was not conducted due to the variability in the strength-limiting feature between the different specimen geometries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fewer Troughs, Not More Ridges, Have Led to a Drying Trend in the Western United States

High-amplitude ridges can enforce heat-trapping systems that persist through an entire season, contributing to drought events. However, the impacts of day-to-day weather system changes at the meso- and synoptic-scale are also important, albeit less well studied. Here, we identify five weather types (WTs) from 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies. These categories include WT4, which represents ridges and associated dry and warm anomalies, and WT3, which characterizes troughs and associated wetter- and colder-than-normal conditions and is the largest contributor to precipitation in the western U.S. While no discernable trend is evident for WT4 conditions, WT3 conditions have undergone a distinctive decrease in frequency at both annual and seasonal scales, thus a general drying trend across the west during this time period may be more significantly associated with fewer troughs rather than more ridges. Attribution analysis reveals that this decrease in wetter and colder weather is a likely result of anthropogenic forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the chemical bonding of ground and excited states of HfO and HfB with correlated wavefunction theory and density functional approximations

Knowledge of the chemical bonding of HfO and HfB ground and low-lying electronic states provides essential insights into a range of catalysts and materials that contain Hf–O or Hf–B moieties. Here, we carry out high-level multi-reference configuration interaction theory and coupled cluster quantum chemical calculations on these systems. We compute full potential energy curves, excitation energies, ionization energies, electronic configurations, and spectroscopic parameters with large quadruple-ζ and quintuple-ζ quality correlation consistent basis sets. We also investigate equilibrium chemical bonding patterns and effects of correlating core electrons on property predictions. Differences in the ground state electron configuration of HfB(X 4 Σ - ) and HfO(X 1 Σ + ) lead to a significantly stronger bond in HfO than HfB, as judged by both dissociation energies and equilibrium bond distances. We extend our analysis to the chemical bonding patterns of the isovalent HfX (X = O, S, Se, Te, and Po) series and observe similar trends. We also note a linear trend between the decreasing value of the dissociation energy (D e ) from HfO to HfPo and the singlet–triplet energy gap (ΔE S–T ) of the molecule. Finally, we compare these benchmark results to those obtained using density functional theory (DFT) with 23 exchange–correlation functionals spanning multiple rungs of “Jacob’s ladder.” When comparing DFT errors to coupled cluster reference values on dissociation energies, excitation energies, and ionization energies of HfB and HfO, we observe semi-local generalized gradient approximations to significantly outperform more complex and high-cost functionals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Effect of outer divertor leg detachment on the high field side scrape-off layer in DIII-D and ASDEX Upgrade

In this work, evidence is presented that detachment of the outer divertor leg leads to a reduction of electron density and neutral pressure in the high-field side (HFS) scrape-off layer (SOL) of the ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) and DIII-D tokamaks with ion $B$ x $∇B$ drift directed toward the X-point (favorable configuration). These results are observed across multiple diagnostics and without the use of impurity seeding to reach detachment. In AUG, outer divertor leg detachment correlates with a decrease in electron density near the separatrix at the inner midplane, measured with HFS reflectometry. A concurrent reduction in inner divertor density and neutral pressure at the inner target is observed using divertor Thomson scattering and neutral pressure gauges. These effects are present in both L- and H-mode plasmas. In DIII-D, a similar reduction is detected through analysis of line-integrated hydrogenic emission measured by multiple diagnostics in the HFS SOL close to the separatrix. The consistent trends in both devices indicate that high electron density and strong hydrogenic emissivity in the HFS SOL are common features of H-mode plasmas in the favorable configuration, independent of wall material and divertor geometry. In L-mode plasmas, the reduction in electron density and neutral pressure is not observed in DIII-D, possibly due to differences in wall material. These results emphasize the importance of the divertor state in determining the two-dimensional neutral distribution and edge fueling.

detachment↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integration of Pumped Heat Energy Storage with Fossil-Fired Power Plant (Final Report)

The project team of Southwest Research Institute ® (SwRI ® ), Malta Inc. (Malta), and Luminant Generation Company LLC (Luminant) completed a feasibility study for the integration of a 100-MW, 10-hour (1000-MWh) Malta Pumped Heat Energy Storage (MPHES) system with multiple full-sized fossil-fired electricity generation units (EGU) in Luminant portfolio. MPHES is a long-duration, molten-salt-energy storage technology that uses turbomachinery and heat exchangers to transfer energy to a thermal storage media when charging, and removes the heat in a similar fashion when discharging. With high round trip efficiency (60-65%) and long lifespan (30+ years), MPHES provides economic benefits to the fossil-asset owners that can be scaled to integrate with assets across their portfolio. This technology uses hardware components, workforce personnel, and skillsets similar to those used by fossil EGUs, allowing for synergy when co-locating the two technologies. Luminant has approximately 39,000 megawatts of generation across 12 states, operating in six of the seven competitive markets in the U.S. and powered by a diverse portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, and solar facilities. The DeCordova plant in Granbury, Texas, a simple cycle natural gas peaker power plant, was used as the fossil-fired asset in this project. The local market in Granbury, Texas has many influences, including several nearby power plants, a Luminant-owned nuclear plant (Comanche Peak), and substantial wind energy, which causes both negative pricing at night and high market volatility. Reducing false starts of the DeCordova plant and better responding to market volatility would be an economic advantage. Luminant is currently integrating battery storage plant on site to begin addressing these challenges. Integrating long-duration storage, like MPHES, would expand this capability beyond one hour of storage and have the potential to greatly reduce the total number of gas turbine starts. The MPHES charging requirement could help offset the overnight operating costs of Comanche Peak, which cannot load follow, and the nearby Luminant-owned Wise County combined cycle plant that cycles too often. Following the assessment of Luminant’s ERCOT-based portfolio for integration compatibility with Malta’s PHES system and the project tasks of conceptual study, technoeconomic analysis, technology gap assessment, and commercialization plan, the project team effort has resulted in several key outcomes: (1) Identification of market trends in a high-wind penetration market outside a major metropolitan area; (2) Creation of a dispatching model for the MPHES system and the pairing of Li-ion battery with a gas turbine in a real time market; (3) Revenue and cost estimations for operating MPHES alongside a gas peaker plant with real dispatching considerations and comparison with variations in the Malta implementation, including doubling the storage capacity and using two discharge drivetrains; (4) Potential carbon emission reductions possible by replacing gas turbine operation with Malta PHES operation; and (5) Summary of literature-based future market predictions for Texas.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling of a Generic Pebble Bed High-temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (PB-HTGR) with SAM

This report presents the modeling of the core of a generic pebble-bed reactor (PBR) at the system level using the System Analysis Module (SAM) code. This work is an extension of a previous work by the authors (Ooi et al. (2021)) that used the so-called 2-D ring model approach to model the PBMR-400. With the new approach, the pebble bed of the reactor is modeled with multiple PBCoreChannel components with spherical heat structures which allows the code to calculate thermal fluid parameters with built-in closure relations. The new core-channel approach is an improvement to the 2-D ring model approach as it does not introduce geometric distortions to the model and thus reduces the uncertainties of the predictions. In addition to thermal fluid simulations, point kinetics (PKE) are included to the model. Simulations are performed under a steady-state normal operation condition and a load-following transient scenario. This particular transient scenario is chosen as it tests both the thermal fluid and neutronics aspects of the model. The predicted results from both the steady-state and transient scenarios are compared with the results by Stew- art et al. (2021) who performed similar simulations with a Griffin-Pronghorn coupled tool. Despite the differences between the codes, with SAM being a system-analysis code and Pronghorn being a porous-medium code, both sets of results compare favorably. The over- all profiles and trends of the predicted temperatures and reactivities from the SAM and Griffin/Pronghorn simulations are similar, with some differences in their predicted values. The first part of the report covers the significance of a relatively fast-running approach that is capable of modeling the pebble bed reactor at the system-level while simultaneously capturing the radial thermal behavior of the core. Then, the modeling approach used in this work is discussed in details. Lastly, the results and comparisons with the Griffin/Pronghorn simulation are presented.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

One Year In: Tracking the Impacts of NEM 3.0 on California’s Residential Solar Market

On December 15, 2022, the California Public Utilities Commission passed an overhaul of the net metering program for the state’s investor-owned utilities. The changes replaced the long-standing net energy metering (NEM) tariffs with a net billing tariff (NBT) structure—colloquially known as “NEM 3.0”—which significantly reduces the compensation for behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. The NEM tariffs remained open for new interconnection applications until April 15, 2023, but after that date, all new interconnection applications were submitted under NBT. Now, one year later, we have an opportunity to evaluate how the California solar market has evolved under this new compensation regime. As a precursor to its annual Tracking the Sun report, Berkeley Lab has released a short technical brief describing key trends in the California residential solar market since the roll-out of the new NBT structure. The purpose of this analysis is to provide empirical insights into how the market has evolved over the past year, confirming some expectations while also revealing several striking surprises.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Initiating Event Rates at U.S. Nuclear Power Plants, 2021 Update

Analyzing initiating event rates is important because it indicates trends and patterns of plant performance and provides inputs to several U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) risk-informed regulatory activities. This report presents an analysis of initiating event frequencies at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants from calendar year 1988 through 2021, as reported in licensee event reports. Engineers with nuclear power plant experience reviewed each event report since the last update to this report to categorize and characterize reactor trips. To be included in this study, an event had to meet all of the following criteria: (1) the event included an unplanned reactor trip (not a scheduled reactor trip on the daily operations schedule), (2) the sequence of events started when the reactor was critical and at or above the point of adding heat, (3) the event occurred at a U.S. commercial nuclear power plant (excluding Fort St. Vrain and LaCrosse), and (4) the event was reported by a licensee event report. Sixteen initiating event groupings are trended and displayed. For some of the categories, relevant events are plotted separately for boiling-water reactors (BWR) and pressurized-water reactors (PWR). P-values are given for the possible presence of a trend over the most recent 10 years. The following trends were identified for the most recent 10 years (2012–2021): • A highly statistically significant decreasing trend was identified for Loss of Offsite Power (p-value = 0.002) • A statistically significant decreasing trend was identified for BWR general transients (p-value = 0.025) • A statistically significant decreasing trend was identified for PWR general transients for the second year in a row (p-value = 0.038).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Initiating Event Rates at U.S. Nuclear Power Plants: 2022 Update

Analyzing initiating event rates is important because it indicates trends and patterns of plant performance and provides inputs to several U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) risk-informed regulatory activities. This report presents an analysis of initiating event frequencies at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants from calendar year 1988 through 2022, as reported in licensee event reports. Engineers with nuclear power plant experience reviewed each event report since the last update to this report to categorize and characterize reactor trips. To be included in this study, an event had to meet all of the following criteria: (1) the event included an unplanned reactor trip (not a scheduled reactor trip on the daily operations schedule), (2) the sequence of events started when the reactor was critical and at or above the point of adding heat, (3) the event occurred at a U.S. commercial nuclear power plant (excluding Fort St. Vrain and LaCrosse), and (4) the event was reported by a licensee event report. Sixteen initiating event groupings are trended and displayed. For some of the categories, relevant events are plotted separately for boiling-water reactors (BWR) and pressurized-water reactors (PWR). P-values are given for the possible presence of a trend over the most recent 10 years.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗