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At least 487 records · Page 27

Feasibility of Recovering and Recycling Polymer Composites from End-of-Life Marine Renewable Energy Structures: A Review

Over the last few decades, several marine renewable energy (MRE) technologies, such as wave energy converters (WECs) and current energy converters (CECs), have been developed. As opposed to traditional materials such as metal alloys, the structure of these technologies is made up of polymer and polymer composite materials. Most structures have been made using thermoset polymer composites; however, since thermoset polymer composites are not recyclable and lack sustainability, and with recent innovations in recyclable resins, bio-based resins, and the development of additive manufacturing technologies, thermoplastic polymers are increasingly being used. Nevertheless, the methodologies for identifying end-of-life options and recovering these polymer composites, as well as the recycling and reuse processes for MRE structures, are not well-studied. Specifically, since these MRE structures are subjected to salinity, moisture, varying temperature, biofouling, and corrosion effects depending on their usage, the recyclability after seawater aging and degradation needs to be explored. Hence, this review provides an in-depth review of polymer composites used in marine applications, the hygrothermal aging studies conducted so far to understand the degradation of these materials, and the reuse and recycling methodologies for end-of-life MRE structures, with a particular emphasis on sustainability.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Design and testing of a free floating dual flap wave energy converter

With a wide variety of wave energy device archetypes currently under consideration, it is a major challenge to ensure that research findings and methods are broadly applicable. In particular, the design and testing of wave energy control systems, a process which includes experimental design, empirical modeling, control design, and performance evaluation, is of interest. This goal motivated the redesign and testing of a floating dual flap wave energy converter. As summarized in this paper, the steps taken in the design, testing, and analysis of the device mirrored those previously demonstrated on a three-degree of freedom point absorber device. The method proposed does not require locking WEC degrees of freedom to develop an excitation model, and presents a more attainable system identification procedure for at-sea deployments. The results show that the methods employed work well for this dual flap device, lending additional support for the broad applicability of the design and testing methods applied here. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that these models are particularly useful for deducing areas of device design or controller implementation that can be reasonably improved to increase device power capture.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Community-Centric Microgrid Feasibility Analysis Framework to Accelerate Resilience of Island Communities

Marine energy offers a reliable energy solution for island and coastal communities, which often lack traditional local generation, to support their transition to energy independence and reduce reliance on externally imported fuels. Successful deployment of new technologies in these isolated locations requires community acceptance and approval from the outset, as these communities typically lack the financial and technical resources to operate and maintain new systems. This report presents a community-centric microgrid planning framework for remote coastal and island communities. Community engagement is integrated as the first step in the planning process, incorporating community profiles and visions into energy development scenarios. A case study was conducted in St. George, Pribilof Islands, Alaska, which relies entirely on diesel yet has significant wind and wave energy potential. Community engagement revealed a unique history and current economic status, with an interest in adopting advanced energy technologies despite past failures. Various microgrid configurations were optimized, considering different technologies to meet current and future energy needs while balancing cost and energy resilience. Wave energy converters (WECs) were a key component, integrated with other energy sources using the Xendee optimization tool. The Marine Energy Microgrid Toolkit, developed as part of this work, uses commercial power system analysis tools to optimize and analyze microgrid scenarios. The developed framework and toolkit can be applied to island and coastal communities to enhance resilience and support microgrid deployments. Future enhancements will include incorporating new marine resources, developing dynamic models, and automating the integration of Xendee and PowerFactory simulations.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Developing Technology Performance Level Assessments for Early-Stage Wave Energy Converter Technologies: Preprint

The advantage of using Technology Performance Level (TPL) in conjunction with Technology Readiness Level (TRL) assessments in guiding technology development trajectories to successful outcomes in less time, at less overall cost, and with less encountered risk has been well articulated in the literature. In partnership with industry and international collaborators, a TPL assessment methodology for grid-connected applications has been developed through the application of the systems engineering approach. Metrics under seven different categories have been developed, weighted based on their relative relevance, and combined to yield a composite score. The methodology has been implemented in a spreadsheet tool plus a web application specifically aimed at assessing early stage (TRL 1-3) concepts. The target use cases are (a) technology developers improving their design, to find fatal flaws early, to get feedback on current design, to identify areas of improvement that will yield the highest return on investment, (b) reviewers assessing technologies in competitions or for making funding decisions, (c) investor or project developer doing due diligence, (d) policy makers landscaping the technology domain for formulating R&D strategy. The methodology and the tools are undergoing continuous improvement based on the experience and lessons learnt from applying it to internal and external marine energy technology development projects. The methodology is also being adapted for assessing WECs servicing markets outside the continental grid - broadly categorized as Powering the Blue Economy (PBE) applications. Such applications have vastly different functional requirements entailing a modification of the methodology to account for their higher risk tolerance, reduced price sensitivities, lower power needs, different permitting protocols, etc. This paper presents the latest status of the TPL assessment methodology and tools, describes its adaptation to select PBE markets, and explores its extension to other domains where it could provide a comprehensive and holistic measure of a nascent or disruptive technology's technoeconomic performance potential.

metrics↗

Developing Technology Performance Level Assessments for Early-Stage Wave Energy Converter Technologies

The advantage of using Technology Performance Level (TPL) in conjunction with Technology Readiness Level (TRL) assessments in guiding technology development trajectories to successful outcomes in less time, at less overall cost, and with less encountered risk has been well articulated in the literature. In partnership with industry and international collaborators, a TPL assessment methodology for grid-connected applications has been developed through the application of the systems engineering approach. Metrics under seven different categories have been developed, weighted based on their relative relevance, and combined to yield a composite score. The methodology has been implemented in a spreadsheet tool plus a web application specifically aimed at assessing early stage (TRL 1-3) concepts. The target use cases are (a) technology developers improving their design, to find fatal flaws early, to get feedback on current design, to identify areas of improvement that will yield the highest return on investment, (b) reviewers assessing technologies in competitions or for making funding decisions, (c) investor or project developer doing due diligence, (d) policy makers landscaping the technology domain for formulating R&D strategy. The methodology and the tools are undergoing continuous improvement based on the experience and lessons learnt from applying it to internal and external marine energy technology development projects. The methodology is also being adapted for assessing WECs servicing markets outside the continental grid - broadly categorized as Powering the Blue Economy (PBE) applications. Such applications have vastly different functional requirements entailing a modification of the methodology to account for their higher risk tolerance, reduced price sensitivities, lower power needs, different permitting protocols, etc. This paper presents the latest status of the TPL assessment methodology and tools, describes its adaptation to select PBE markets, and explores its extension to other domains where it could provide a comprehensive and holistic measure of a nascent or disruptive technology's technoeconomic performance potential.

metrics↗

The Wave Energy Converter Design Process: Methods Applied in Industry and Shortcomings of Current Practices

Wave energy is among the many renewable energy technologies being researched and developed to address the increasing demand for low-emissions energy. The unique design challenges for wave energy converter design—integrating complex and uncertain technological, economic, and ecological systems, overcoming the structural challenges of ocean deployment, and dealing with complex system dynamics—have lead to a disjointed progression of research and development. There is no common design practice across the wave energy industry and there is no published synthesis of the practices that are used by developers. In this paper, we summarize the methods being employed in WEC design as well as promising methods that have yet to be applied. We contextualize these methods within an overarching design process. We present results from a survey of WEC developers to identify methods that are common in industry. From the review and survey results, we conclude that the most common methods of WEC design are iterative methods in which design parameters are defined, evaluated, and then changed based on evaluation results. This leaves a significant space for improvement of methods that help designers make better-informed decisions prior to sophisticated evaluation, and methods of using the evaluation results to make better design decisions during iteration. Despite the popularity of optimization methods in academic research, they are less common in industry development. We end this paper with a summary of the areas of WEC design in which the testing and development of new methods is necessary, and where more research is required to fully understand the influence of design decisions on WEC performance.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Numerical wave modeling for operational and survival analyses of wave energy converters at the US Navy Wave Energy Test Site in Hawaii

The US Navy Wave Energy Test Site (WETS) is currently operating three grid-connected berths off Marine Corps Base Hawaii in support of technological development through scaled-model testing and pre-commercial prototyping. The location on the east shore of Oahu is open to year-round wind waves and seasonal north swells as well as severe seas from subtropical systems and hurricanes. We have assembled a spectral wave model system comprising WAVEWATCH III and SWAN on a hierarchy of global, regional, and nearshore computational grids. With wind forcing from global forecast and rean-alysis datasets as well as their regional downscaling, the system produces operational 7-day wave forecasts and a long-term hindcast. The daily forecasts, validated with real-time buoy measurements, facilitate safe deployment, operation, and retrieval of wave energy converters (WECs). The wave hindcast from 1979 to 2017 defines the intra- and inter-annual variations for statistical analysis of sea states and energy resources. Due to limited occurrences of hurricanes in Hawaii waters, their wind forcing is determined parametrically with simulated tracks from climate model downscaling. Finally, systematic analysis of the hindcast and simulation datasets provides significant wave heights from trade winds, swells, subtropical systems, and hurricanes with return periods up to 100 years for WECs survival analysis.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Adaptable Monitoring Package Development and Deployment: Lessons Learned for Integrated Instrumentation at Marine Energy Sites

Integrated instrumentation packages are an attractive option for environmental and ecological monitoring at marine energy sites, as they can support a range of sensors in a form factor compact enough for the operational constraints posed by energetic waves and currents. Here we present details of the architecture and performance for one such system—the Adaptable Monitoring Package—which supports active acoustic, passive acoustic, and optical sensing to quantify the physical environment and animal presence at marine energy sites. we describe cabled and autonomous deployments and contrast the relatively limited system capabilities in an autonomous operating mode with more expansive capabilities, including real-time data processing, afforded by shore power or in situ power harvesting from waves. Across these deployments, we describe sensor performance, outcomes for biological target classification algorithms using data from multibeam sonars and optical cameras, and the effectiveness of measures to limit biofouling and corrosion. On the basis of these experiences, we discuss the demonstrated requirements for integrated instrumentation, possible operational concepts for monitoring the environmental and ecological effects of marine energy converters using such systems, and the engineering trade-offs inherent in their development. Overall, we find that integrated instrumentation can provide powerful capabilities for observing rare events, managing the volume of data collected, and mitigating potential bias to marine animal behavior. These capabilities may be as relevant to the broader oceanographic community as they are to the emerging marine energy sector.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Hydrokinetic energy conversion using flow induced oscillations of single-cylinder with large passive turbulence control

Various types of flow-induced oscillations (FIOs) have been implemented in development of marine hydrokinetic (MHK) energy converters. With passive turbulence control (PTC), energy harvesting starts at a flow speed of about 0.5 m/s. However, there is worldwide MHK energy available in even slower currents. In the present study, the effect of damping on FIO and power extraction is investigated for a converter with large turbulence stimulation (PTC) consisting of straight strips with a height of 15% of the cylinder diameter and placed symmetrically on the cylinder surface. The oscillating amplitude decreases, as the damping ratio increases, with unchanged sinusoidal pattern of the displacement time-history. The frequency ratio is also affected by damping especially in the VIV initial branch and transition region between VIV and galloping. An important flow characteristic of the large-PTC cylinder is that a recirculation region is formed behind the PTC, causing appreciable disturbance to the flow past the cylinder. Power can be harvested in the whole FIO range and the harnessed power maximum appears at the largest inflow velocity tested. However, the optimum of harnessing efficiency is located at the beginning of the VIV upper branch. The gap between VIV and galloping is bridged when large PTC is used, eliminating the drop in power and efficiency even at higher damping, which would be a weakness of regular-PTC cylinder for energy harvesting. Finally, the mechanism behind the variation of harnessing efficiency with inflow velocity and damping ratio is revealed, and the optimality criterion for the converter design is discussed.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

NLML: A Deep Neural Network Emulator for the Exact Nonlinear Interactions in a Wind Wave Model

Nonlinear wave interactions describe the resonant energy transfer between wave components, playing a fundamental role in the evolution of ocean wave spectra. Nonlinear wave interactions significantly influence wave growth and development, making them essential for accurate wave modeling. However, resolving the full six-dimensional Boltzmann integral of the exact nonlinear wave interactions (Webb-Resio-Tracy method, WRT) is computationally expensive, limiting its application in real-time operational wave forecasting and for research purposes. Current approximations, such as the Discrete Interaction Approximation (DIA), prioritize computational speed over accuracy, resulting in significant errors in wave mean parameters. Here, we introduce NLML, a machine learning (ML) emulator designed to approximate the exact nonlinear wave interactions within WAVEWATCH III (WW3), with the goal of achieving the accuracy of WRT while maintaining the stability and computational speed of DIA. By leveraging GPU capabilities such as half precision inference, we achieved substantial speedups, up to 136x mathematical equation faster than the WRT and only a modest 1.04x mathematical equation slowdown relative to DIA, while achieving 2x mathematical equation the accuracy of DIA in global wave spectral energy and mean wave parameters, with up to 7x mathematical equation higher accuracy in some regions. Unlike previous ML approaches, NLML maintained inherent stability throughout model integration in a standalone, year-long WW3 simulation, without requiring additional constraints. Our new ML parameterization bridges the gap between accuracy and efficiency, offering a promising alternative for improving wave modeling in operational settings and research purposes.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Extracting energy from ocean thermal and salinity gradients to power unmanned underwater vehicles: State of the art, current limitations, and future outlook

Thermal gradient energy-generation technologies for powering unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) or autonomous sensing systems in the ocean are mainly in the research development phase or commercially available at a limited scale, and salinity-gradient energy-generation technologies have not been adequately researched yet. The demand for self-powered UUVs suitable for long-term deployments has been growing, and further research related to small-scale ocean gradient energy systems is needed. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive review about harvesting energy from ocean thermal or salinity gradients for powering UUVs, focusing on gliders and profiling floats. Thermal gradient energy systems for UUVs based on phase change materials (PCM) cannot provide the energy required for powering autonomous sensing systems because of the systems' low energy conversion efficiency. Besides reducing energy consumption by developing more efficient electrical-mechanical systems, enhancing the thermal conductivity of the PCMs may help address this challenge by increasing the power generation rate of the UUVs. Several other emerging technologies, such as thermoelectric generators, shape memory alloys, and small-scale thermodynamic cycle systems, have shown potential for powering UUVs, but they are still only at the laboratory testing or conceptual design phase. The most advanced power generation technologies based on salinity gradients, reverse electrodialysis and pressure-retarded osmosis, are still not economically viable for large-scale deployment, mainly because of the high cost of the components required to operate in harsh saline environments. Our feasibility evaluation showed that existing salinity gradient power generation technologies are not directly feasible for powering UUVs in the open ocean.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

CFD Simulation of Floating Body Motion with Mooring Dynamics: Coupling MoorDyn with OpenFOAM

It is increasingly popular to use Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models to study floating structures subjected to ocean waves, especially when it comes to applications of floating offshore wind turbines and Wave Energy Converters (WECs). Mooring dynamics are currently lacking in most of these applications. This paper presents a coupled simulation study of moored floating body motion by coupling two open-source libraries: a finite volume CFD toolbox, OpenFOAM, and a lumped-mass mooring model, MoorDyn. The instantaneous floating body position and velocity are passed from the body motion solver in the CFD model to the mooring model to calculate the fairlead kinematics. The mooring reaction forces, which are calculated by MoorDyn after updating the mooring system states, are then returned to the body motion solver to update the floating body motion. Both mesh deformation and overset mesh methods are used as the mesh motion solver in the CFD model to account for the floating body motion. The coupled model was validated against experimental measurements for a floating box moored with four catenary lines under the action of regular waves, which came from a preliminary test campaign for WECs. Apart from the lumped-mass mooring model, the present work also coupled a quasi-static mooring model and a finite element model with the floating body motion solver in OpenFOAM. The mooring line tensions predicted by these models were compared. The coupled model equipped with three mooring line codes may be further used to carry out survivability studies of FOWTs and WECs subject to severe sea states.

floating body↗

Human‐induced salinity changes impact marine organisms and ecosystems

Abstract Climate change is fundamentally altering marine and coastal ecosystems on a global scale. While the effects of ocean warming and acidification on ecology and ecosystem functions and services are being comprehensively researched, less attention is directed toward understanding the impacts of human‐driven ocean salinity changes. The global water cycle operates through water fluxes expressed as precipitation, evaporation, and freshwater runoff from land. Changes to these in turn modulate ocean salinity and shape the marine and coastal environment by affecting ocean currents, stratification, oxygen saturation, and sea level rise. Besides the direct impact on ocean physical processes, salinity changes impact ocean biological functions with the ecophysiological consequences are being poorly understood. This is surprising as salinity changes may impact diversity, ecosystem and habitat structure loss, and community shifts including trophic cascades. Climate model future projections (of end of the century salinity changes) indicate magnitudes that lead to modification of open ocean plankton community structure and habitat suitability of coral reef communities. Such salinity changes are also capable of affecting the diversity and metabolic capacity of coastal microorganisms and impairing the photosynthetic capacity of (coastal and open ocean) phytoplankton, macroalgae, and seagrass, with downstream ramifications on global biogeochemical cycling. The scarcity of comprehensive salinity data in dynamic coastal regions warrants additional attention. Such datasets are crucial to quantify salinity‐based ecosystem function relationships and project such changes that ultimately link into carbon sequestration and freshwater as well as food availability to human populations around the globe. It is critical to integrate vigorous high‐quality salinity data with interacting key environmental parameters (e.g., temperature, nutrients, oxygen) for a comprehensive understanding of anthropogenically induced marine changes and its impact on human health and the global economy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Design, Manufacture, and Testing of an Open-Source Benchmark Composite Hydrokinetic Turbine Blade: Preprint

In a trend toward clean energy alternatives, recent years have seen great strides in the marine energy space. Consequently, there is a pressing need for the design, development, and validation of novel energy harvesting technologies such as hydrokinetic devices, which capture kinetic energy from waves, tides, and currents. However, these devices span numerous concepts and designs that often lack solid benchmark research that can be freely referenced throughout their development. This work focuses on the design process of an open-source composite hydrokinetic turbine blade for a three-bladed marine turbine rotor assembly with a diameter of 2.5 m. The proposed blade consists of two structural composite skins that are bonded with an adhesive and filled with a foam core. This study also explores and contrasts the efficiency and resolution of low-fidelity rapid design methodologies and comprehensive high-fidelity approaches in the context of blade design, modeling, and analysis efforts, a key objective in this research. Blade hydrodynamic loads were modeled and applied to finite-element blade models to study deformations and potential failure. Ongoing and upcoming efforts will result in blade manufacture and structural testing at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. In future work, multiple blades will be deployed at the Living Bridge site at the University of New Hampshire and will be compared to rigid aluminum blades of the same geometry, developed by Sandia National Laboratories. Ultimately, this research will lay foundational groundwork for researchers and manufacturers, establishing a baseline composite blade design that will serve as a benchmark in the development of future hydrokinetic turbine blades.

blade design↗

Effects of Coatings on Water Intrusion and Strain Gauge Durability in Submerged Fatigue Conditions: Preprint

Marine energy structures are typically made using composite materials and are repeatedly loaded by currents and waves. Submersion and repeated loading lead to two environmental effects: moisture intrusion and mechanical fatigue. To understand the combined effects of moisture intrusion and mechanical fatigue on marine energy structures, submerged fatigue testing can be used. Submerged fatigue testing often requires submerged instrumentation to validate component manufacturing methods and models. Measuring strain is critical for understanding marine energy component loads. One common method for measuring strain is by using foil strain gauges, but the durability of strain gauges in submerged fatigue conditions was not well-understood. To increase strain gauge durability and protection from contamination, delamination, and water intrusion, strain gauge coatings may be applied over strain gauges and wire connections. In this study, strain gauges were adhered to composite coupons, coated, and mechanically tested in a water tank. Cycles to composite failure, cycles to strain gauge failure, strains, and strain gauge failure modes were used to measure the effects of strain gauge coatings on composite fatigue life and strain gauge durability. The methods developed and measurements taken at the coupon scale in this study will be used to inform methods and designs for subsequent submerged subcomponent testing, full-scale testing, and standards development. The benefits of designing marine energy structures to informed standards and designs are decreased lifetime costs and increased reliability and energy production, ultimately leading to a sustainable and low-carbon energy system.

composite fatigue testing↗

Effects of Strain Gauge Coatings on Water Intrusion in Submerged Composite Coupon Testing

Marine energy structures are typically made using composite materials and are repeatedly loaded by currents and waves. Submersion and repeated loading lead to two environmental effects: moisture intrusion and mechanical fatigue. To understand their combined effects, submerged fatigue testing can be used. Submerged fatigue testing often requires submerged instrumentation to validate component manufacturing methods and models. Strain measurements are critical for understanding marine energy component loads. One common method for measuring strain is by using foil strain gauges, but the durability of strain gauges in submerged fatigue conditions is not well-understood. To increase strain gauge durability and protection from contamination, delamination, and water intrusion, strain gauge coatings may be applied over strain gauges and wire connections. In this study, strain gauges were adhered to composite coupons, coated, and mechanically tested in a water tank. Cycles to composite failure, cycles to strain gauge failure (SGF), strains, and SGF modes were used to measure the effects of strain gauge coatings on composite fatigue life and strain gauge durability. The coatings did not have significant effects on composite fatigue life or strain gauge durability. The methods developed and measurements taken at the coupon scale in this study will be used to inform methods and designs for subsequent submerged subcomponent testing, full-scale testing, and standards development. The benefits of designing marine energy structures to informed standards and designs are decreased lifetime costs and increased reliability and energy production, ultimately leading to a sustainable and low-carbon energy system.

composite materials↗

Ocean Energy: Markets - Currency - Impact. Dimension of & Choices in the Technology Development Space: Preprint

This paper presents considerations of the employment of ocean wave energy to support different energy demand side applications. The key aspect in these considerations is the wave energy supported achievable positive impact and associated tangible contribution in service of common societal good and of the natural commons. The level of impact that can be delivered is dependent on both, the level of contribution of the supported energy use application, and the compatibility and unique suitability of the wave energy resource and its characteristics with the needs of the application. Thus, a variety of ocean wave energy markets, the key value indicators or "currency' in which these markets trade the value delivered and the achievable positive impact, are reflected upon. Ocean wave energy supported acquisition of high quality ocean system data across a wide spectrum of system properties is identified as a highly impactful application enabling and/or improving a comprehensive range of impactful ocean system activities. The technology development process towards these markets and desired impacts requires relevant technology development progress guidance and metrics. Going beyond technology readiness levels and technology performance levels, the notion of further technology development progress scales towards high impact and high contribution are proposed. These scales and the associated technology properties can be regarded as additional technology development dimensions to span-up the technology development space in which desired system capability and functional requirement choices and subsequent ideation, innovation, research and technology development decisions can and are to be made.

data market↗

Sea-Level Rise: Projections for Maryland 2018

In fulfillment of requirements of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change Act of 2015, this report provides updated projections of the amount of sea-level rise relative to Maryland coastal lands that is expected into the next century. These projections represent the consensus of an Expert Group drawn from the Mid-Atlantic region. The framework for these projections is explicitly tied to the projections of global sea-level rise included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (2014) and incorporates regional factors such as subsidence, distance from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets, and ocean currents. The probability distribution of estimates of relative sea-level rise from the baseline year of 2000 are provided over time and, after 2050, for three different greenhouse gas emissions pathways: Growing Emissions (RCP8.5), Stabilized Emissions (RCP4.5), and meeting the Paris Agreement (RCP2.6). This framework has been recently used in developing relative sea-level rise projections for California, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, and Delaware as well as several metropolitan areas. The Likely range (66% probability) of the relative rise of mean sea level expected in Maryland between 2000 and 2050 is 0.8 to 1.6 feet, with about a one-in-twenty chance it could exceed 2.0 feet and about a one-in-one hundred chance it could exceed 2.3 feet. Later this century, rates of sea-level rise increasingly depend on the future pathway of global emissions of greenhouse gases during the next sixty years. If emissions continue to grow well into the second half of the 21st century, the Likely range of sea-level rise experienced in Maryland is 2.0 to 4.2 feet over this century, two to four times the sea-level rise experienced during the 20th century. Moreover, there is a one-in-twenty chance that it could exceed 5.2 feet. If, on the other hand, global society were able to bring net greenhouse gas emissions to zero in time to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and reduce emissions sufficient to limit the increase in global mean temperature to less than 2°Celsius over pre-industrial levels, the Likely range for 2100 is 1.2 to 3.0 feet, with a one-in-twenty chance that it would exceed 3.7 feet. The difference in sea-level rise between these contrasting scenarios would diverge even more during the next century, with the failure to reduce emissions in the near term resulting in much greater sea-level rise 100 years from now. Moreover, recent research suggests that, without imminent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the loss of polar ice sheets-and thus the rate of sea-level rise-may be more rapid than assumed in these projections, particularly under the Growing Emissions scenario. These probabilistic sea-level rise projections can and should be used in planning and regulation, infrastructure siting and design, estimation of changes in tidal range and storm surge, developing inundation mapping tools, and adaptation strategies for high-tide flooding and saltwater intrusion.

Boesch, D. F.↗