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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Towards Robust Calibration of the AWSD Reactive Burn Model

Calibration of a reactive burn model for detonation of high explosive is an important step towards predictive hy drodynamic simulations of detonation. A typical calibration consists of varying model parameters (e.g., rate constants, activation energies) until results of hydrodynamic simulations match the experimental data for a certain set of ex periments. Hydrodynamic simulations of the dependence of steady detonation velocity on the radius of a cylindrical high-explosive charge - often used in such calibrations - can be computationally expensive. In this work, we propose a method where such expensive simulations are performed infrequently, and only to parameterize and refine a surrogate model for the dependence of the detonation velocity on calibrated parameters. The method is developed, implemented and applied to an example problem - calibration of the AWSD reactive burn model for important high explosive PBX 9502. Two different flavors of the surrogate model are investigated, and the calibration is performed successfully.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

HydraGNN_OPF_GFM_2026 - Ensemble of predictive graph foundation models for power grid applications

This dataset supports research on graph foundation models for optimal power flow (OPF) on electric grids using HydraGNN. It contains heterogeneous graph representations of PGLib-OPF cases spanning systems from 14 to 13,659 buses, together with packed HDF5 datasets for pretraining, feasibility classification, and N-1 contingency analysis. The release includes OPF solution data, downstream fine-tuning datasets, pretrained HeteroSAGE and HeteroHEAT model checkpoints, hyperparameter-optimization summaries across multiple heterogeneous GNN architectures, and aggregated fine-tuning results for sample-efficiency studies. The dataset is designed to enable scalable training, evaluation, and transfer-learning studies for OPF surrogate modeling, including node-level AC-OPF solution prediction, graph-level prediction, feasibility classification, operating-condition generalization, and contingency-response tasks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Autoignition behavior of gasoline/ethanol blends at engine-relevant conditions

Ethanol is an attractive oxygenate increasingly used for blending with petroleum-derived gasoline yielding beneficial combustion and emissions behavior for a range of internal combustion engine schemes, including stoichiometric spark-ignition and low temperature combustion (LTC). As such, it is important to fundamentally understand the autoignition behavior of gasoline/ethanol blends. This work utilizes a rapid compression machine (RCM) and a homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) engine to experimentally quantify changes in fuel reactivity, through ignition delay times and preliminary heat release, for blends of 0 to 30% vol./vol. into a full boiling range research gasoline (FACE-F). Diluted/stoichiometric and undiluted/fuel-lean conditions are explored covering a wide range of compressed temperatures and pressures relevant to conventional and advanced, gasoline combustion engines. Detailed chemical kinetic modeling is undertaken using a recently updated gasoline surrogate model in conjunction with a five-component surrogate to model the RCM experiments and provide chemical insight into the perturbative effects of ethanol on the autoignition process. The diluted/stoichiometric RCM measurements reveal that within the low-temperature regime ethanol retards first-stage and main ignition delay times, and suppresses both the rates and extents of low-temperature heat release (LTHR), while within the intermediate-temperature regime ethanol only causes slight changes. Good agreement of ignition delay time and preliminary heat release prediction is found between model and experimental results. Sensitivity and flux analyses further show that ethanol blending effects are dominated by the competition between the H-atom abstraction from ethanol and other fuel components by OH radical at low temperatures and by HO 2 radical at intermediate temperatures. These findings are consistent across both fuel loading conditions explored in this study. In addition, when HCCI engine experiments are mapped onto undiluted/lean RCM measurements under a constant combustion phasing scenario, good correspondence between the two apparatuses is observed for LTHR and start of high-temperature heat release. Finally, the current study highlights the importance of characterizing LTHR in predicting fuel behaviors in high-boost/low-temperature engines, and demonstrates that RCM experiments can provide an alternative, and more-efficient avenue for such characterization.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calibrating uncertain parameters in melt pool simulations of additive manufacturing

Melt pool scale numerical modeling of additive manufacturing (AM) processes can provide predictive capabilities and theoretical insight into the process-property-structure-performance relationships for AM parts. Despite capabilities of numerical models to solve complex multi-physics problems, it is often important to consider a tradeoff between detailed physics and computational cost. Therefore, sources of uncertainty in both experimental conditions and the parameters needed for modeling require models to be validated against empirical evidence. Here, a method is proposed to calibrate uncertain parameters used in continuum-scale melt pool models for powder bed fusion (PBF) AM. Both a simplified heat transfer model and a heat transfer and fluid flow model were investigated. A surrogate model and Markov chain-based optimization algorithm calibrated melt pool geometry for models within experimental variation of the target melt pool width and depth from the NIST AM-Bench 2018-02 dataset. The melt pool temperature distributions, solidification parameters, and simulated multi-layer solidification microstructures were compared between the two models. Similar results from both models indicate that calibrated, lower fidelity numerical models may be used in place of higher fidelity models to generate melt pool solidification data. Finally, these calibrated models therefore enable lower computational cost melt pool simulations without a noticeable decrease in simulation accuracy for grain-scale microstructure simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

StOKeDMD: Streaming Occupation kernel dynamic mode decomposition

Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) has become a common technique for constructing surrogate models for dynamical systems from observed system states. The Occupation Kernel DMD (OKDMD) method proposed in (Rosenfeld et al., 2022) and (Rosenfeld et al., 2024) is a Liouville operator based method that builds surrogate models from system state trajectories. Here, this paper proposes an extension of OKDMD to the case when the system states are observed in a streaming fashion, i.e., only a small fraction of the state trajectory is available at a given time. The developed method, Streaming Occupation Kernel DMD (StOKeDMD), accommodates the streaming data input by leveraging properties of specific choices of kernel functions and occupation kernels. We apply the StoKeDMD method as a compression method for streaming data, analyze the memory complexity, and demonstrate the performance of StoKeDMD in the compression of streaming data generated from a Lorenz system and a fluid flow simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inverse Modeling of Hydrologic Parameters in CLM4 via Generalized Polynomial Chaos in the Bayesian Framework

In this work, generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion for land surface model parameter estimation is evaluated. We perform inverse modeling and compute the posterior distribution of the critical hydrological parameters that are subject to great uncertainty in the Community Land Model (CLM) for a given value of the output LH. The unknown parameters include those that have been identified as the most influential factors on the simulations of surface and subsurface runoff, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and soil moisture in CLM4.0. We set up the inversion problem in the Bayesian framework in two steps: (i) building a surrogate model expressing the input–output mapping, and (ii) performing inverse modeling and computing the posterior distributions of the input parameters using observation data for a given value of the output LH. The development of the surrogate model is carried out with a Bayesian procedure based on the variable selection methods that use gPC expansions. Our approach accounts for bases selection uncertainty and quantifies the importance of the gPC terms, and, hence, all of the input parameters, via the associated posterior probabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Designing Ti-6Al-4V microstructure for strain delocalization using neural networks

Abstract The deformation behavior of Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy is significantly influenced by slip localized within crystallographic slip bands. Experimental observations reveal that intense slip bands in Ti-6Al-4V form at strains well below the macroscopic yield strain and may serially propagate across grain boundaries, resulting in long-range localization that percolates through the microstructure. These connected, localized slip bands serve as potential sites for crack initiation. Although slip localization in Ti-6Al-4V is known to be influenced by various factors, an investigation of optimal microstructures that limit localization remains lacking. In this work, we develop a novel strategy that integrates an explicit slip band crystal plasticity technique, graph networks, and neural network models to identify Ti-6Al-4V microstructures that reduce the propensity for strain localization. Simulations are conducted on a dataset of 3D polycrystals, each represented as a graph to account for grain neighborhood and connectivity. The results are then used to train neural network surrogate models that accurately predict localization-based properties of a polycrystal, given its microstructure. These properties include the ratio of slip accumulated in the band to that in the matrix, fraction of total applied strain accommodated by slip bands, and spatial connectivity of slip bands throughout the microstructure. The initial dataset is enriched by synthetic data generated by the surrogate models, and a grid search optimization is subsequently performed to find optimal microstructures. Describing a 3D polycrystal with only a few features and a combination of graph and neural network models offer robustness compared to the alternative approaches without compromising accuracy. We show that while each material property is optimized through a unique microstructure solution, elongated grain shape emerges as a recurring feature among all optimal microstructures. This finding suggests that designing microstructures with elongated grains could potentially mitigate strain localization without compromising strength.

Ahmadikia, Behnam↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning models for PDE constrained optimization

Partial differential equation (PDE)-constrained optimization problems arise in a variety of scientific and engineering applications, such as topology optimization, electrodynamics, fluid dynamics, and structural dynamics. However, these problems are often challenging and computationally expensive to solve, due to the need to solve the PDEs within the optimization loop. One approach to reducing the computational cost of these methods while providing convergence guarantees is through inexact trust region methods; this method uses lower fidelity solutions of the PDE at early stages of the optimization and adjusts the required accuracy of inexact PDE solvers as the optimization progresses. In this work, we explore the use of machine learning based surrogate models with these inexact trust region methods. We first demonstrate the potential of this approach by using Gaussian processes as the surrogate model and test this on a simple PDE-constrained optimization problem. We then document explorations into improving the computational costs of evolutional deep neural network / neural Galerkin methods, with the eventual goal of using these methods with the inexact trust region algorithms. We are able to speed up these approaches, albeit at the cost of lower accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Benchtop Autonomous Electrochemical Characterization System for Combinatorial Thin-Film Solid Oxide Electrodes

The design of materials for electrochemical energy conversion is complicated by a vast search space of candidate materials and multifaceted property requirements: multicarrier conductivity, stability, and catalytic activity are all necessary but rarely intersect. Although self-driving laboratories are rapidly rising to address such material optimization problems, the required infrastructure for integrated, large-scale robotic facilities can be cost-prohibitive. Here we develop and evaluate a closed-loop measurement system for efficient screening of proton-conducting oxide electrodes for ceramic fuel cells and electrolyzers, building on top of an existing benchtop instrument and integrating techniques for rapid impedance measurement and automated analysis. This system exemplifies a “minimum viable” self-driving implementation that can deliver substantial benefits with relatively simple infrastructure. Combinatorial thin-film microelectrode libraries are characterized with a recently developed joint time-domain and frequency-domain impedance measurement technique, which provides an order-of-magnitude acceleration relative to conventional impedance spectroscopy. The distribution of relaxation times is extracted from impedance data and analyzed without human intervention. These results feed an active learning and Bayesian optimization process that learns to predict electrochemical impedance as a function of material composition, measurement temperature, oxygen partial pressure, and electrical bias, which further reduces the screening time by tenfold with optimized experimental sequences. We apply this system to Ba⁡(Co,Fe,Zr,Y)⁢O 3−𝛿 combinatorial libraries and evaluate its effectiveness for learning material property trends and optimizing expensive-to-evaluate properties such as activation energy. This offers insights into key methodological aspects of practical autonomous experimentation, including surrogate model validation, cost-aware acquisition functions, and high-throughput data interpretation. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of the system for rapidly gathering information, but also highlight real-world experimental challenges of thin-film degradation and numerical instability in surrogate models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Risk-Adaptive Experimental Design for High-Consequence Systems: LDRD Final Report

Constructing accurate statistical models of critical system responses typically requires an enormous amount of data from physical experiments or numerical simulations. Unfortunately, data generation is often expensive and time consuming. To streamline the data generation process, optimal experimental design determines the 'best' allocation of experiments with respect to a criterion that measures the ability to estimate some important aspect of an assumed statistical model. While optimal design has a vast literature, few researchers have developed design paradigms targeting tail statistics, such as quantiles. In this project, we tailored and extended traditional design paradigms to target distribution tails. Our approach included (i) the development of new optimality criteria to shape the distribution of prediction variances, (ii) the development of novel risk-adapted surrogate models that provably overestimate certain statistics including the probability of exceeding a threshold, and (iii) the asymptotic analysis of regression approaches that target tail statistics such as superquantile regression. To accompany our theoretical contributions, we released implementations of our methods for surrogate modeling and design of experiments in two complementary open source software packages, the ROL/OED Toolkit and PyApprox.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive Machine Learning for Robust Diagnostics and Control of Time-Varying Particle Accelerator Components and Beams

Machine learning (ML) is growing in popularity for various particle accelerator applications including anomaly detection such as faulty beam position monitor or RF fault identification, for non-invasive diagnostics, and for creating surrogate models. ML methods such as neural networks (NN) are useful because they can learn input-output relationships in large complex systems based on large data sets. Once they are trained, methods such as NNs give instant predictions of complex phenomenon, which makes their use as surrogate models especially appealing for speeding up large parameter space searches which otherwise require computationally expensive simulations. However, quickly time varying systems are challenging for ML-based approaches because the actual system dynamics quickly drifts away from the description provided by any fixed data set, degrading the predictive power of any ML method, and limits their applicability for real time feedback control of quickly time-varying accelerator components and beams. In contrast to ML methods, adaptive model-independent feedback algorithms are by design robust to un-modeled changes and disturbances in dynamic systems, but are usually local in nature and susceptible to local extrema. In this work, we propose that the combination of adaptive feedback and machine learning, adaptive machine learning (AML), is a way to combine the global feature learning power of ML methods such as deep neural networks with the robustness of model-independent control. We present an overview of several ML and adaptive control methods, their strengths and limitations, and an overview of AML approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Physics-Constrained Deep Learning Model for Simulating Multiphase Flow in 3D Heterogeneous Porous Media

Physics-based simulators for multiphase flow in porous media emulate nonlinear processes with coupled physics, and usually require extensive computational resources for software development, maintenance and simulation execution. As a result, a huge demand exists for fast modeling of coupled processes in a wide range of subsurface applications including geological sequestration, hydrocarbon recovery and geothermal energy extraction. In this work, an efficient physics-constrained deep learning model is developed for solving multiphase flow in 3-Dimensional (3D) heterogeneous porous media. The model fully leverages the spatial topology predictive capability of convolutional neural networks, specifically U-Net with successive contracting and expansive steps, and is coupled with an efficient continuity-based smoother to predict flow responses that need spatial continuity. Furthermore, the transient regions are penalized to steer the training process such that the model can accurately capture flow in these regions. The model takes inputs including properties of porous media, fluid properties and well controls, and predicts the temporal-spatial evolution of the state variables (pressure and saturation). While maintaining the continuity of fluid flow, the 3D spatial domain is decomposed into 2D images for reducing training cost, and the decomposition results in an increased number of training data samples and better training efficiency. Additionally, a surrogate model is separately constructed as a postprocessor to calculate well flow rate based on the predictions of state variables from the deep learning model. We use the example of CO 2 injection into saline aquifers, and apply the physics-constrained deep learning model that is trained from physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. The model performs prediction with a speedup of ~ 1400 times compared to physics-based simulations, and the average temporal errors of predicted pressure and saturation plumes are 0.27% and 0.099% respectively. Furthermore, water production rate is efficiently predicted by a surrogate model for well flow rate, with a mean error less than 5%. Therefore, with its unique scheme to cope with the fidelity in fluid flow in porous media, the physics-constrained deep learning model can become an efficient predictive model for computationally demanding inverse problems or other coupled processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automated path planning for functionally graded materials considering phase stability and solidification behavior: Application to the Mo-Nb-Ta-Ti system

Functionally graded materials have the potential to improve upon monolithic parts by locally tailoring compositions to surrounding environmental conditions. Difficulties arise when designing composition gradients as incompatible materials can result in detrimental phase formation and failure of the gradient joint. As many alloys are multi-component, designing a composition gradient free of detrimental phases is difficult due to the large composition space available to explore. A framework was developed that improves the path planning algorithm and surrogate models with adaptive sampling schemes specific to their problem definition. A cost function was created to minimize a property (such as cracking susceptibility) along a path. This framework was applied to the Mo-Nb-Ta-Ti system as a case study to showcase the efficiency in building the surrogate models and in iterating different optimal compositionally graded paths.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating phase field simulations through a hybrid adaptive Fourier neural operator with U-net backbone

Prolonged contact between a corrosive liquid and metal alloys can cause progressive dealloying. For one such process as liquid-metal dealloying (LMD), phase field models have been developed to understand the mechanisms leading to complex morphologies. However, the LMD governing equations in these models often involve coupled non-linear partial differential equations (PDE), which are challenging to solve numerically. In particular, numerical stiffness in the PDEs requires an extremely refined time step size (on the order of 10 -12 s or smaller). This computational bottleneck is especially problematic when running LMD simulation until a late time horizon is required. This motivates the development of surrogate models capable of leaping forward in time, by skipping several consecutive time steps at-once. In this paper, we propose a U-shaped adaptive Fourier neural operator (U-AFNO), a machine learning (ML) based model inspired by recent advances in neural operator learning. U-AFNO employs U-Nets for extracting and reconstructing local features within the physical fields, and passes the latent space through a vision transformer (ViT) implemented in the Fourier space (AFNO). We use U-AFNOs to learn the dynamics of mapping the field at a current time step into a later time step. We also identify global quantities of interest (QoI) describing the corrosion process (e.g., the deformation of the liquid-metal interface, lost metal, etc.) and show that our proposed U-AFNO model is able to accurately predict the field dynamics, in spite of the chaotic nature of LMD. Most notably, our model reproduces the key microstructure statistics and QoIs with a level of accuracy on par with the high-fidelity numerical solver, while achieving a significant 11, 200 × speed-up on a high-resolution grid when comparing the computational expense per time step. Finally, we also investigate the opportunity of using hybrid simulations, in which we alternate forward leaps in time using the U-AFNO with high-fidelity time stepping. We demonstrate that while advantageous for some surrogate model design choices, our proposed U-AFNO model in fully auto-regressive settings consistently outperforms hybrid schemes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Source Machine Learning and Thermoplastics Enhanced Aerostructure Manufacturing (mTEAM)

RTX Technology Research Center (RTRC), together with Collins Aerospace (Collins) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has developed an Artificial Intelligence (AI) / Machine Learning (ML) guided solution to advance the manufacturing and assembly of high performance and lightweight thermoplastic composite (TPC) aerospace products. The solution aims to lower risk, cost and lead time for induction heating based welding and consolidation processes for TPC structure. The cost and lead time of part and material specific process development for induction welding (IW) and induction consolidation will be reduced by replacing traditional empirical methods with optimization methods that merge AI/ML and physics-based process simulations and process experiments with sensing and controls. TPC-IW process development is empirical in nature, and uncertainties in material & process behavior exist near & far from the induction coil. Physics-based simulations can be leveraged directly for process optimization but can be too computationally expensive to run in high fidelity and real time to do robust process optimization. The key impact of successful TPC induction consolidation and welding is cost & lead time reduction for part & material specific consolidation and welding recipes. This is an enabler for more rapid deployment of TPC structures via joining assembly, which can reduce energy & cost intensive usage of autoclaves & ovens. The solution aimed to advance the U.S. Department of Energy’s interests in using thermoplastics and automation in composite manufacturing for improvement of products for existing markets via increased production speeds, reduced costs, and lowered use of energy. Welded TPC structures can offer significant weight & energy savings for high-value commercial aerospace & industrial applications compared to metal & thermoset composite structures assembled by mechanical fastening and/or adhesive bonding. The project was organized into two Budget Periods. Budget Period 1 (BP1) was 15 months and its goal was to perform ML process optimization framework development & deployment on lab-coupon aerostructure components. A Go/No-Go Review was performed at the end of BP1 to verify fulfilment of key tasks & milestones to justify a Go Decision to move into the next Budget Period. Budget Period 2 (BP2) was 12 months and its goal was the deployment of the ML framework for ML process optimization of pilot industrial scale aerostructure components. The overall project aim was to develop & demonstrate ML-enhanced modeling framework that learns process-property mapping from multiple data sources at different fidelities. During BP1, the team accomplished key tasks & milestones to demonstrate the concept of multi-source ML for TPC aerostructure consolidation and assembly. First, the team completed documentation of induction based TPC heating requirements including baseline metrics to compare measured results against. Next the team completed demonstration of data generation from physics-based simulations for ML surrogate model generation and demonstrated the integration of physics-based simulation data into multi-source AI/ML algorithms. In parallel, the team established the lab-coupon scale induction welding system and completed a process to label and reduce generated data from physics-based simulation and experiments for ML surrogate models to enable multi-source ML model training & testing. To complete BP1, the team integrated physics-based simulation data and experimental data into multi-source ML algorithms. This was based on the team completing ML deployment of the induction welding on a lab system at RTRC and AI/ML deployment on existing induction welding line at Collins. ORNL visited both Collins and RTRC sites to witness the TPC induction welding process. Then, ORNL designed and constructed a new version of their vision-based sensing system better adapted to acquire process signals of the TPC induction welding process for process anomaly and defect detection. In BP2, the team accomplished key tasks & milestones to scale up multi-source ML for TPC aerostructure consolidation and assembly from the lab-coupon scale to the pilot-industrial scale. In BP2, the team demonstrated real time anomaly & defect detection via experiments performed by ORNL & RTRC. The team completed ML-optimization heating trials for TPC induction consolidation at Collins, and the team confirmed pilot industrial scale experimental data from Collins was compatible with the developed ML pipeline from RTRC. The team completed sub-element scale ML process optimization demonstration at RTRC, where the team leveraged RTRC’s robotic TPC welding setup to de-risk the ML process optimization by performing ML analysis of recorded temperatures to account for complex part features. Then, the team applied its ML-derived control strategies and ML process optimization framework at Collins to the pilot-industrial scale on a demo skin-stiffener part representative of a nacelle aerostructure fan cowl section. The key innovation is the AI/ML framework enabling effective process development of high performance, lightweight, energy efficient TPCs for composite aircraft structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experiments and numerical modeling of surrogate droplet combustion for a 93 octane gasoline calibration fuel

Gasoline is the world’s most prolific liquid transportation fuel for ground transportation vehicles. Yet, a fundamental understanding of its burning characteristics is still lacking. Complicating this matter is the highly multicomponent nature of gasoline (comprised of hundreds of chemical species) and the seasonable variability of its composition due to variations in the crude oil feedstocks used in refining. The need to bring order to this complex problem has led to development of calibration fuels (Tier II in presented study) which on average will provide repeatable metrics that replicate performance of refined gasoline for various engine designs. This study presents results of experiments using the configuration of an isolated droplet to study the combustion dynamics of calibration fuel and three different surrogates (S4, S5, S6) for the calibration fuel. Droplet burning is under microgravity conditions, where gas transport is determined entirely by fuel evaporation in order to promote spherical symmetry in the burning process. The initial droplet diameters ranged between 0.55 mm and 0.60 mm. The droplets were spark-ignited and their burning histories were recorded by digital video cameras to obtain quantitative data. For each fuel, the evolutions of droplet, flame, and soot-shell diameters were measured to calculate the burn rates, flame-droplet diameter ratios (FSR) and soot-droplet diameter ratios. Additionally, a detailed numerical modeling is presented. This simulation includes multicomponent phase equilibrium, unsteady gas and liquid transport, radiative heat transfer, internal liquid diffusion and detailed combustion chemistry of different fuels during their burning process. Experiment results show that the calibration fuel and surrogates have a close burn rates and FSR, and S5 presents a relatively similar results with calibration fuel. Predictions from the numerical simulation using the surrogate are compared with experiment measurements, which showed a good agreement with the experiment results, including the droplet burning rate and FSR.

Guo, Songtao↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity Monte Carlo estimation for efficient uncertainty quantification in climate-related modeling

Abstract. Uncertainties in an output of interest that depends on the solution of a complex system (e.g., of partial differential equations with random inputs) are often, if not nearly ubiquitously, determined in practice using Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. While simple to implement, MC estimation fails to provide reliable information about statistical quantities (such as the expected value of the output of interest) in application settings such as climate modeling, for which obtaining a single realization of the output of interest is a costly endeavor. Specifically, the dilemma encountered is that many samples of the output of interest have to be collected in order to obtain an MC estimator that has sufficient accuracy – so many, in fact, that the available computational budget is not large enough to effect the number of samples needed. To circumvent this dilemma, we consider using multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) estimation which leverages the use of less costly and less accurate surrogate models (such as coarser grids, reduced-order models, simplified physics, and/or interpolants) to achieve, for the same computational budget, higher accuracy compared to that obtained by an MC estimator – or, looking at it another way, an MFMC estimator obtains the same accuracy as the MC estimator at lower computational cost. The key to the efficacy of MFMC estimation is the fact that most of the required computational budget is loaded onto the less costly surrogate models so that very few samples are taken of the more expensive model of interest. We first provide a more detailed discussion about the need to consider an alternative to MC estimation for uncertainty quantification. Subsequently, we present a review, in an abstract setting, of the MFMC approach along with its application to three climate-related benchmark problems as a proof-of-concept exercise.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗