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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Voltage Probability Density Function Shaping Control Strategy Considering Grid Operational Uncertainties

It is well-known that power systems operation always affected by various uncertainties which make the bus voltage a random process that can be characterized by its probability density function (PDF) at any time instant. In this context, this paper presents a novel PDF-based voltage control framework for power systems. By modeling voltage as a stochastic process, we formulate a stochastic differential equationthat captures grid uncertainties. The associated Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation is derived to describe the evolution of the voltage PDF, which enables the formulation of a PDF-shaping control strategy. To simplify the PDF control formulation, a B-spline neural network is introduced for real-time estimation and regulation of the voltage distribution. The proposed PDF control law updates voltage references for energy storage systems and synchronous generators using real-time PDF measurements and feedback signals. The proposed method is validated on a modified Kundur’s two-area system. Simulation results demonstrate that the controller can significantly improve the voltage stability under stochastic conditions, highlighting its effectiveness in modern inverter-rich grids.

Gui, Yonghao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000250435534)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lagrangian and Eulerian Supersaturation Statistics in Turbulent Cloudy Rayleigh–Bénard Convection: Applications for LES Subgrid Modeling

Abstract Turbulent fluctuations of scalar and velocity fields are critical for cloud microphysical processes, e.g., droplet activation and size distribution evolution, and can therefore influence cloud radiative forcing and precipitation formation. Lagrangian and Eulerian water vapor, temperature, and supersaturation statistics are investigated in direct numerical simulations (DNS) of turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection in the Pi Convection Cloud Chamber to provide a foundation for parameterizing subgrid-scale fluctuations in atmospheric models. A subgrid model for water vapor and temperature variances and covariance and supersaturation variance is proposed, valid for both clear and cloudy conditions. Evaluation of phase change contributions through an a priori test using DNS data shows good performance of the model. Supersaturation is a nonlinear function of temperature and water vapor, and relative external fluxes of water vapor and heat (e.g., during entrainment-mixing and phase change) influence turbulent supersaturation fluctuations. Although supersaturation has autocorrelation and structure functions similar to the independent scalars (temperature and water vapor), the autocorrelation time scale of supersaturation differs. Relative scalar fluxes in DNS without cloud make supersaturation PDFs less skewed than the adiabatic case, where they are highly negatively skewed. However, droplet condensation changes the PDF shape response: it becomes positively skewed for the adiabatic case and negatively skewed when the sidewall relative fluxes are large. Condensation also increases correlations between water vapor and temperature in the presence of relative scalar fluxes but decreases correlations for the adiabatic case. These changes in correlation suppress supersaturation variability for the nonadiabatic cases and increase it for the adiabatic case. Implications of this work for subgrid microphysics modeling using a Lagrangian stochastic scheme are also discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis and Mitigation of Cascading Failures Using a Stochastic Interaction Graph with Eigen-analysis

In studies on complex network systems using graph theory, eigen-analysis is typically performed on an undirected graph model of the network. However, when analyzing cascading failures in a power system, the interactions among failures suggest the need for a directed graph beyond the topology of the power system to model directions of failure propagation. To accurately quantify failure interactions for effective mitigation strategies, this paper proposes a stochastic interaction graph model and associated eigen-analysis. Different types of modes on failure propagations are defined and characterized by the eigenvalues of a stochastic interaction matrix, whose absolute values are unity, zero, or in between. Finding and interpreting these modes helps identify the probable patterns of failure propagation, either local or widespread, and the participating components based on eigenvectors. Then, by lowering the failure probabilities of critical components highly participating in a mode of widespread failures, cascading can be mitigated. Here, the validity of the proposed stochastic interaction graph model, eigen-analysis and the resulting mitigation strategies is demonstrated using simulated cascading failure data on an NPCC 140-bus system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

A stochastic biomass blending problem in decentralized supply chains

Blending biomass materials of different physical or chemical properties provides an opportunity to adjust the quality of the feedstock to meet the specifications of the conversion platform. We propose a model which identifies the right mix of biomass to optimize the performance of the thermochemical conversion process at the mini-mum cost. This is a chance-constraint programming (CCP) model which takes into account the stochastic nature of biomass quality. The proposed CCP model ensures that process requirements, which are impacted by physical and chemical properties of biomass, are met most of the time. We consider two problem settings, a centralized and a decentralized supply chain. We propose a mixed-integer linear program to model the blending problem in the centralized setting and a bilevel program to model the blending problem in the decentralized setting. We use the sample average approximation method to approximate the chance constraints, and propose solution algorithms to solve this approximation. We develop a case study for South Carolina using data provided by the Billion Ton Study. Based on our results, the blends identified consist mainly of pine and softwood residues. The blends identified and the suppliers selected by both models are different. The cost of the centralized supply chain is 2%–6% lower. The implications of these results are twofold. First, these results could lead to improved collaborations in the supply chain. Second, these results provide an estimate of the approximation error from assuming centralized decision making in the supply chain.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Fault Detection

This entry describes the state-of-the-art and future perspectives on stochastic fault detection, namely, stochastic fault detection and diagnosis (FDD). Both model-based and data-driven FDD methods for stochastic signals and systems have been included, where the use of hypothesis testing, Kalman filtering, system estimation, principal component analysis (PCA), and stochastic distribution control has been discussed for the construction of effective FDD algorithms. Indeed, stochastic FDD constitute an important and integrated part in developing fault-tolerant controls (FTC) for guaranteed safe operation of control systems, of which increased penetration of random factors is inevitable nowadays.

Wang, Aiping↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-based modeling and data analytics [Slides]

This presentation contains a summary of ongoing work within the physics-based modeling and data analytics work package within the Nuclear Materials Discovery and Qualification initiative (NMDQi). Topics include work on MOOSE-based crystal plasticity, molecular dynamics modeling of recombination in metals and alloys, the MOOSE Stochastic Tools Module, and machine learning and atomistic modeling to predict thermo-kinetic properties of nuclear structural materials.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

FEDERATED LEARNING ON STOCHASTIC NEURAL NETWORKS

Federated learning is a machine learning paradigm that leverages edge computing on client devices to optimize models while maintaining user privacy by ensuring that local data remain on the device. However, since all data are collected by clients, federated learning is susceptible to latent noise in local datasets. Factors such as limited measurement capabilities or human errors may introduce inaccuracies in client data. To address this challenge, we propose the use of a stochastic neural network as the local model within the federated learning framework. Stochastic neural networks not only facilitate the estimation of the true underlying states of the data but also enable the quantification of latent noise. We refer to our federated learning approach, which incorporates stochastic neural networks as local models, as federated stochastic neural networks. In this work we will present numerical experiments demonstrating the performance and effectiveness of our method, particularly in handling nonindependent and identically distributed data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhancing Convection Parameterization for Next Generation E3SM (Final Technical Report)

This technical report summarizes the achievements during the project period. The general goal of the project is to enhance the representation of atmospheric deep convection in the DOE global climate model E3SM. By implementing a stochastic convection scheme into E3SM, we improved the simulation of precipitation intensity and frequency. As a result, it has a profound impact on the simulation of other fields in the model, including aerosol scavenging by precipitation and aerosol radiative effects. We also implemented a convective cloud microphysics scheme into E3SMv2 to represent more accurately the interaction between convection and grid-scale clouds. An extensive analysis of model simulations as part of the Next Generation Development (NGD) convection scheme assessment project found that including the convective microphysics scheme improved the simulation of Madden-Julian oscillations (MJO) in the model. To make convective parameterization schemes more scale-aware as the GCM resolution increases, we analyzed the output from cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of both organized and unorganized convection by coarse-graining the CRM data to different GCM resolutions. Using a novel approach to modify the convective closure, we demonstrated that the convection scheme used in E3SM (ZM scheme) can be made scale-aware.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using metacommunity ecology to understand environmental metabolomes

Abstract Environmental metabolomes are fundamentally coupled to microbially-linked biogeochemical processes within ecosystems. However, significant gaps exist in our understanding of their spatiotemporal organization, limiting our ability to uncover transferrable principles and predict ecosystem function. We propose that a theoretical paradigm, which integrates concepts from metacommunity ecology, is necessary to reveal underlying mechanisms governing metabolomes. We call this synthesis between ecology and metabolomics ‘meta-metabolome ecology’ and demonstrate its utility using a mass spectrometry dataset. We developed three relational metabolite dendrograms using molecular properties and putative biochemical transformations and performed ecological null modeling. Based upon null modeling results, we show that stochastic processes drove molecular properties while biochemical transformations were structured deterministically. We further suggest that potentially biochemically active metabolites were more deterministically assembled than less active metabolites. Understanding variation in the influences of stochasticity and determinism provides a way to focus attention on which meta-metabolomes and which parts of meta-metabolomes are most likely to be important to consider in mechanistic models. We propose that this paradigm will allow researchers to study the connections between ecological systems and their molecular processes in previously inaccessible detail.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamics of non-Gaussian fluctuations in model A

Motivated by the experimental search for the QCD critical point, we perform simulations of a stochastic field theory with purely relaxational dynamics (model A). We verify the expected dynamic scaling of correlation functions. Using a finite size scaling analysis, we obtain the dynamic critical exponent z = 2.026(56). We investigate time dependent correlation functions of higher moments M n (t) of the order parameter M(t) for n = 1, 2, 3, 4. We obtain dynamic scaling with the same critical exponent z for all n, but the relaxation constant depends on n. We also study the relaxation of M n (t) after a quench, where the simulation is initialized in the high temperature phase, and the dynamics is studied at the critical temperature T c . Finally, we find that the evolution does not follow simple scaling with the dynamic exponent z, and that it involves an early time rise followed by late stage relaxation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward data assimilation of ship-induced aerosol–cloud interactions

Satellite imagery can detect temporary cloud trails or ship tracks formed from aerosols emitted from large ships traversing our oceans, a phenomenon that global climate models cannot directly reproduce. Ship tracks are observable examples of marine cloud brightening, a potential solar climate intervention that shows promise in helping combat climate change. In this paper, we demonstrate a simulation-based approach in learning the behavior of ship tracks based upon a novel stochastic emulation mechanism. Our method uses wind fields to determine the movement of aerosol–cloud tracks and uses a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) to model their persistence behavior. This SPDE incorporates both a drift and diffusion term which describes the movement of aerosol particles via wind and their diffusivity through the atmosphere, respectively. We first present our proposed approach with examples using simulated wind fields and ship paths. We then successfully demonstrate our tool by applying the approximate Bayesian computation method-sequential Monte Carlo for data assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining quenching time-scales in galaxy clusters by forward-modelling stellar ages and quiescent fractions in projected phase space

We forward-model mass-weighted stellar ages (MWAs) and quiescent fractions (f Q ) in projected phase space (PPS), using data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, to jointly constrain an infall quenching model for galaxies in log (M vir /M ⊙ ) > 14 galaxy clusters at z ∼ 0. We find the average deviation in MWA from the MWA–M⋆ relation depends on position in PPS, with a maximum difference between the inner cluster and infalling interloper galaxies of ∼1 Gyr. Our model employs infall information from N-body simulations and stochastic star-formation histories from the universemachine model. We find total quenching times of t Q = 3.7 ± 0.4 Gyr and t Q = 4.0 ± 0.2 Gyr after first pericentre, for 9 < log (M ⋆ /M ⊙ ) < 10 and 10 < log (M ⋆ /M ⊙ ) < 10.5 galaxies, respectively. By using MWAs, we break the degeneracy in time of quenching onset and time-scale of star formation rate (SFR) decline. We find that time of quenching onset relative to pericentre is $t_{\mathrm{delay}}=3.5^{+0.6}_{-0.9}$ Gyr and $t_{\mathrm{delay}}=-0.3^{+0.8}_{-1.0}$ Gyr for 9 < log (M ⋆ /M ⊙ ) < 10 and 10 < log (M ⋆ /M ⊙ ) < 10.5 galaxies, respectively, and exponential SFR suppression time-scales are τenv ≤ 1.0 Gyr for 9 < log (M ⋆ /M ⊙ ) < 10 galaxies and τenv ∼ 2.3 Gyr for 10 < log (M ⋆ /M ⊙ ) < 10.5 galaxies. Stochastic star formation histories remove the need for rapid infall quenching to maintain the bimodality in the SFR of cluster galaxies; the depth of the green valley prefers quenching onsets close to first pericentre and a longer quenching envelope, in slight tension with the MWA-driven results. Taken together these results suggest that quenching begins close to, or just after pericentre, but the time-scale for quenching to be fully complete is much longer and therefore ram-pressure stripping is not complete on first pericentric passage.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification for neural network potential foundation models

Abstract For neural network potentials (NNPs) to gain widespread use, researchers must be able to trust model outputs. However, the blackbox nature of neural networks and their inherent stochasticity are often deterrents, especially for foundation models trained over broad swaths of chemical space. Uncertainty information provided at the time of prediction can help reduce aversion to NNPs. In this work, we detail two uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods. Readout ensembling, by finetuning the readout layers of an ensemble of foundation models, provides information about model uncertainty, while quantile regression, by replacing point predictions with distributional predictions, provides information about uncertainty within the underlying training data. We demonstrate our approach with the MACE-MP-0 model, applying UQ to the foundation model and a series of finetuned models. The uncertainties produced by the readout ensemble and quantile methods are demonstrated to be distinct measures by which the quality of the NNP output can be judged.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and simulation of vascular tumors embedded in evolving capillary networks

Here in this work, we present a coupled 3D–1D model of solid tumor growth within a dynamically changing vascular network to facilitate realistic simulations of angiogenesis. Additionally, the model includes erosion of the extracellular matrix, interstitial flow, and coupled flow in blood vessels and tissue. We employ continuum mixture theory with stochastic Cahn–Hilliard type phase-field models of tumor growth. The interstitial flow is governed by a mesoscale version of Darcy’s law. The flow in the blood vessels is controlled by Poiseuille flow, and Starling’s law is applied to model the mass transfer in and out of blood vessels. The evolution of the network of blood vessels is orchestrated by the concentration of the tumor angiogenesis factors (TAFs); blood vessels grow towards the increasing TAFs concentrations. This process is not deterministic, allowing random growth of blood vessels and, therefore, due to the coupling of nutrients in tissue and vessels, makes the growth of tumors stochastic. We demonstrate the performance of the model by applying it to a variety of scenarios. Numerical experiments illustrate the flexibility of the model and its ability to generate satellite tumors. Simulations of the effects of angiogenesis on tumor growth are presented as well as sample-independent features of cancer.

3D–1D coupled blood flow models↗
DOE OSTI2023

Parameter estimation with maximal updated densities

A recently developed measure-theoretic framework solves a stochastic inverse problem (SIP) for models where uncertainties in model output data are predominantly due to aleatoric (i.e., irreducible) uncertainties in model inputs (i.e., parameters). The subsequent inferential target is a distribution on parameters. Another type of inverse problem is to quantify uncertainties in estimates of “true” parameter values under the assumption that such uncertainties should be reduced as more data are incorporated into the problem, i.e., the uncertainty is considered epistemic. A major contribution of this work is the formulation and solution of such a parameter identification problem (PIP) within the measure-theoretic framework developed for the SIP. The approach is novel in that it utilizes a solution to a stochastic forward problem (SFP) to update an initial density only in the parameter directions informed by the model output data. In other words, this method performs “selective regularization” only in the parameter directions not informed by data. Further, the solution is defined by a maximal updated density (MUD) point where the updated density defines the measure-theoretic solution to the PIP. Another significant contribution of this work is the full theory of existence and uniqueness of MUD points for linear maps with Gaussian distributions. Data-constructed Quantity of Interest (QoI) maps are also presented and analyzed for solving the PIP within this measure-theoretic framework as a means of reducing uncertainties in the MUD estimate. We conclude with a demonstration of the general applicability of the method on two problems involving either spatial or temporal data for estimating uncertain model parameters. The first problem utilizes spatial data from a stationary partial differential equation to produce a MUD estimate of an uncertain boundary condition. The second problem utilizes temporal data obtained from the state-of-the-art ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model to obtain a MUD estimate of uncertain wind drag coefficients for a simulated extreme weather event near the Shinnecock Inlet located in the Outer Barrier of Long Island, NY, USA.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multistage Stochastic optimization for mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling of cascaded hydroelectric system with renewable energy uncertainty

The uncertainties resulting from the escalating penetration of renewable energy resources pose severe challenges to the efficient operation of modern power systems. Hydroelectricity is characterized by its flexibility, controllability, and reliability, and thus becomes one of the most ideal energy resources to hedge against such uncertainties. This paper studies the mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling of a cascaded hydroelectric system (CHS) consisting of multiple cascaded reservoirs and hydroelectric units. To precisely describe the mid-term water regulation policies, the hydraulic coupling relationship and water-energy nexus of CHS are incorporated into the proposed optimization model. The uncertainties of natural water inflow and the power outputs of wind/solar energy generation are taken into consideration and captured via a stochastic process modeled by a scenario tree. A multistage stochastic optimization (MSO) approach is developed to coordinate the complementary operations of multiple energy resources, by optimizing the mid-term water resource management, generation scheduling, and maintenance scheduling of CHS. The proposed MSO model is formulated as a large-scale mixed-integer linear program that presents significant computational intractability. To address this issue, a tailored Benders decomposition algorithm is developed. Two real-world case studies are conducted to demonstrate the capability and characteristics of the proposed model and algorithm. The computational results show that the proposed MSO model can exploit the flexibility of hydroelectricity to efficiently respond to variable wind and solar power, and reserve water resources for the generation in peak months to reduce the consumption of fossil fuel. Furthermore, the proposed solution approach also exhibits promising computational efficiency when handling large-scale models.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗