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At least 487 records · Page 27

Image-to-Image Wildfire Detection via Quantum-Compatible Variational Segmentation from Remotely-sensed Data

Over the last decade, the incidence of wildfires has surged, causing widespread destruction globally. To better comprehend and manage these incidents, remote sensing and aerial missions have been implemented in recent efforts. However, this has resulted in an exponential rise in the amount of remote sensing data utilization, leading to a need for intelligent automation of data extraction in wildfire studies. Machine learning provides an accurate automated approach for detecting these natural anomalies and facilitates decision-makers to take prompt actions. To make insightful decisions in wildfire management, it is imperative to move beyond simple detection and explore the potential of probabilistic generative machine learning for creating "what-if" scenarios for various wildfire conditions. Such models offer improved representation of the stochastic nature of wildfire events. However, the optimization of these models can be computationally expensive, especially when using classical computers. Quantum computers have recently emerged as a promising solution to reduce the computational cost of training such models and improve their performance. In this study, we aim to utilize quantum-compatible machine learning techniques to implement our probabilistic generative approach. To that end, we propose a supervised probabilistic variational model consisting of a U-NET-based image-to-image component along with encoder and decoder networks which work as a variational autoencoder (VAE) component. Additionally, we explore the type of latent distribution type in the VAE component and implement different means for modeling the prior distribution. We further investigate the quantum-compatible versions of the model compared to the classical counterpart and benchmark potential benefits of quantum compatibility over the classical model.

quantum machine learning↗

UV stars and the interstellar medium - A statistical time-dependent model

A statistical time-dependent model for the effects on the interstellar gas of the ionizing radiation from UV stars is presented. The radiation from the stars is assumed to be emitted as monochromatic bursts at random times and locations. The thermal and ionization history of the gas is followed in a Monte Carlo simulation. Probability densities as well as mean values for the ionization fraction, temperature, and other observable quantities are derived. The fluctuations in observed quantities due to the stochastic nature of the model are estimated. Models of the interstellar medium perpendicular to the galactic plane are developed and compared with observations. The action of the UV stars can explain the bulk properties of the interstellar gas toward the galactic poles and is consistent with the Copernicus satellite observations toward lambda Scorpii.

Lyon, J.↗

A statistical model of carbon/carbon composite failure

A failure model which considers the stochastic nature of the damage accumulation process is essential to assess reliability and to accurately scale the results from standard test specimens to composite structures. A superior filamentary composite for high temperature applications is composed of carbon fibers in a carbon matrix. Carbon-carbon composites are the strongest known material at very high temperatures. Since there appears to be a significant randomness in C-C material strength which cannot be controlled or detected with current technology, a better model of the material failure based upon statistical principles should be used. Simple applications of the model based upon the limited data provide encouraging results that indicate that better design of test specimens would provide a substantially higher prediction for the design strength of C-C composites. An A-basis strength for the C-C tensile rings from a first stage D-5 billets was estimated. A statistical failure model was developed for these rings which indicates that this strength may be very conservative for larger C-C parts. The analysis may be improved by use of a heterogeneous/noncontinuum finite element approach on the minimechanical level.

Slattery, Kerry T.↗

Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting

A 'lagged average forecast' (LAF) model is developed for stochastic dynamic weather forecasting and used for predictions in comparison with the results of a Monte Carlo forecast (MCF). The technique involves the calculation of sample statistics from an ensemble of forecasts, with each ensemble member being an ordinary dynamical forecast (ODF). Initial conditions at a time lagging the start of the forecast period are used, with varying amounts of time for the lags. Forcing by asymmetric Newtonian heating of the lower layer is used in a two-layer, f-plane, highly truncated spectral model in a test forecasting run. Both the LAF and MCF are found to be more accurate than the ODF due to ensemble averaging with the MCF and the LAF. When a regression filter is introduced, all models become more accurate, with the LAF model giving the best results. The possibility of generating monthly or seasonal forecasts with the LAF is discussed.

Hoffman, R. N.↗

The structure of red-infrared scattergrams of semivegetated landscapes

A physically based linear stochastic geometric canopy soil reflectance model is presented for characterizing spatial variability of semivegetated landscapes at subpixel and regional scales. Landscapes are conceptualized as stochastic geometric surfaces, incorporating not only the variability in geometric elements, but also the variability in vegetation and soil background reflectance which can be important in some scenes. The model is used to investigate several possible mechanisms which contribute to the often observed characteristic triangular shape of red-infrared scattergrams of semivegetated landscapes. Scattergrams of simulated and semivegetated scenes are analyzed with respect to the scales of the satellite pixel and subpixel components. Analysis of actual aerial radiometric data of a pecan orchard is presented in comparison with ground observations as preliminary confirmation of the theoretical results.

Jasinski, Michael F.↗

The structure of red-infrared scattergrams of semivegetated landscapes

A physically based linear stochastic geometric canopy soil reflectance model is presented for characterizing spatial variability of semivegetated landscapes at subpixel and regional scales. Landscapes are conceptualized as stochastic geometric surfaces, incorporating not only the variability in geometric elements, but also the variability in vegetation and soil background reflectance which can be important in some scenes. The model is used to investigate several possible mechanisms which contribute to the often observed characteristic triangular shape of red-infrared scattergrams of semivegetated landscapes. Scattergrams of simulated semivegetated scenes are analyzed with respect to the scales of the satellite pixel and subpixel components. Analysis of actual aerial radiometric data of a pecan orchard is presented in comparison with ground observations as preliminary confirmation of the theoretical results.

Jasinski, Michael F.↗

Electron Beam Induced Luminescence of SiO2 Optical Coatings

Optical coatings of disordered thin film SiO,/SiO, samples undergoing electron beam bombardment exhibited a cathodoluminescence effect. Measurements were made of the absolute illuminance and emission spectra as functions of incident electron energy (0.2 keV to 30 keV). flux (approx. 0.1 nA/sq cm to > 100 nA/sq cm) and power (<50 nW/sq cm to > 3mW/sq cm) for coatings (approx.60 nm to approx.200 nm thick) on reflective metal substrates over a range of sample temperatures (approx.40 K to approx.400 K) and emission wavelengths (approx.260 nm to approx.5000 nm). Illuminance reached a plateau saturation intensity I(sub sat) approx. 10(exp -4)W/sq cm. scaling as [I(sub mc)/(I + I(sub mc)/I(sub sat)] as incident power I(sub mc) approached I(sub sat). Well below I(sub sat), illuminance scaled linearly with incident power for lower-energy non-penetrating radiation that deposited all of its energy in the dielectric film. At higher incident energies (> 1-5 keV) electrons penetrate the dielectric, depositing only a fraction of their energy in the dielectric film, where deposited energy scales as the ratio of film thickness to penetration range. Since electron range exhibits a peak below approx. 1 keV, the illuminance decreased with increasing energy for penetrating radiation. The temperature dependence of the illuminance. in general, increased with decreasing temperature. Changes in apparent color with temperature were also observed. Four bands in the UV/VIS/NIR range from 300 nm to 1000 nm were observed in spectral measurements; no significant luminescence was detected in a range from approx. 1000 nm to approx. 5000 nm. These different bands either increased or decreased in intensity and shifted slightly in energy with decreasing temperature. Our measurements are explained in terms of simple disordered band theory models based on atomic-scale stochastic transport of electrons in highly disordered insulating materials. The theoretical models provide a fundamental basis for understanding the dependence of cathodoluminescence on irradiation time, incident flux and energy. and sample thickness and temperature. The observed luminescence occurs when an incident high energy electron excites a valence band electron into the conduction band. Following the excitation. a complex series of transitions take place between the extended conduction states and the long-lived localized trapped states (or chromophores) associated with structural or compositional defects in the dielectric materials. Thc transport equations and models of thc spatial and energy distribution of the trapped states below the mobility edge, their occupancy, and transitions provide microscopic scale insights into this macroscopic phenomenon. Our observations and theoretical models are also compared with similar previous room temperature studies of similar SiO2 films.

Dennison, J. R.↗

Upper-Ocean Heat Balance Processes and the Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Model Projections

Considerable uncertainty remains as to the importance of mechanisms governing decadal and longer variability of the Walker Circulation, its connection to the tropical climate system, and prospects for tropical climate change in the face of anthropogenic forcing. Most contemporary climate models suggest that in response to elevated CO2 and a warmer but more stratified atmosphere, the required upward mass flux in tropical convection will diminish along with the Walker component of the tropical mean circulation as well. Alternatively, there is also evidence to suggest that the shoaling and increased vertical stratification of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific will enable a muted SST increase there-- preserving or even enhancing some of the dynamical forcing for the Walker cell flow. Over the past decade there have been observational indications of an acceleration in near-surface easterlies, a strengthened Pacific zonal SST gradient, and globally-teleconnected dislocations in precipitation. But is this evidence in support of an ocean dynamical thermostat process posited to accompany anthropogenic forcing, or just residual decadal fluctuations associated with variations in warm and cold ENSO events and other stochastic forcing? From a modeling perspective we try to make headway on this question by examining zonal variations in surface energy fluxes and dynamics governing tropical upper ocean heat content evolution in the WCRP CMIP5 model projections. There is some diversity among model simulations; for example, the CCSM4 indicates net ocean warming over the IndoPacific region while the CSIRO model concentrates separate warming responses over the central Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The models, as with observations, demonstrate strong local coupling between variations in column water vapor, downward surface longwave radiation and SST; but the spatial patterns of changes in the sign of this relationship differ among models and, for models as a whole, with observations. Our analysis focuses initially on probing the inter-model differences in energy fluxes / transports and Walker Circulation response to forcing. We then attempt to identify statistically the El Nino- / La Nina-related ocean heat content variability unique to each model and regress out the associated energy flux, ocean heat transport and Walker response on these shorter time scales for comparison to that of the anthropogenic signals.

Robertson, F. R.↗

On the evaluation of expected performance cost for partially observed closed-loop stochastic systems

New methods are presented for evaluating the expected performance cost of partially observed closed-loop stochastic systems. When the variances of the process statistics are small, a linearized model of the closed-loop stochastic system is defined for which the expected cost can be evaluated by recursion on a set of purely deterministic difference equations. When the variances of the process statistics are large, the linearized model can be used in the control variate method of variance reduction for reducing the number of sample paths required for effective Monte Carlo estimation.

Bayard, D. S.↗

A comparative study of Conroy and Monte Carlo methods applied to multiple quadratures and multiple scattering

An efficient numerical method of multiple quadratures, the Conroy method, is applied to the problem of computing multiple scattering contributions in the radiative transfer through realistic planetary atmospheres. A brief error analysis of the method is given and comparisons are drawn with the more familiar Monte Carlo method. Both methods are stochastic problem-solving models of a physical or mathematical process and utilize the sampling scheme for points distributed over a definite region. In the Monte Carlo scheme the sample points are distributed randomly over the integration region. In the Conroy method, the sample points are distributed systematically, such that the point distribution forms a unique, closed, symmetrical pattern which effectively fills the region of the multidimensional integration. The methods are illustrated by two simple examples: one, of multidimensional integration involving two independent variables, and the other, of computing the second order scattering contribution to the sky radiance.

Deepak, A.↗

Stochastic Petri net analysis of a replicated file system

A stochastic Petri-net model of a replicated file system is presented for a distributed environment where replicated files reside on different hosts and a voting algorithm is used to maintain consistency. Witnesses, which simply record the status of the file but contain no data, can be used in addition to or in place of files to reduce overhead. A model sufficiently detailed to include file status (current or out-of-date), as well as failure and repair of hosts where copies or witnesses reside, is presented. The number of copies and witnesses is a parameter of the model. Two different majority protocols are examined, one where a majority of all copies and witnesses is necessary to form a quorum, and the other where only a majority of the copies and witnesses on operational hosts is needed. The latter, known as adaptive voting, is shown to increase file availability in most cases.

Bechta Dugan, Joanne↗

Stochastic acceleration of cometary pickup ions - The classic leaky box model

The acceleration of cometary pickup ions by magnetohydrodynamic waves at P/Giacobini-Zinner is examined in a model where acceleration predominantly occurs downstream of the bow shock throughout the cometosheath where intense magnetic turbulence exists. The mean free path for scattering by the magnetic fluctuations in this region is less than the characteristic dimension of the cometosheath so that pickup ions are rendered isotropic and energized by a modest amount in the process. This principal loss mechanism for the ions is spatial diffusion out of the acceleration region moderated by the self-same accelerating waves. This particular feature constrains the model in a way that the predicted ion spectrum is uniquely determined by the power spectrum of the magnetic turbulence. At both P/Giacobini-Zinner and P/Halley, the turbulence is non-Kolmogoroff with a spectral index of 2 resulting in an ion spectral behavior that is approximately an exponential in ion speed, consistent with a recent analysis of the Giacobini-Zinner data (see Richardson et al.).

Barbosa, D. D.↗

Physically-based parameterization of spatially variable soil and vegetation using satellite multispectral data

A stochastic-geometric landsurface reflectance model is formulated and tested for the parameterization of spatially variable vegetation and soil at subpixel scales using satellite multispectral images without ground truth. Landscapes are conceptualized as 3-D Lambertian reflecting surfaces consisting of plant canopies, represented by solid geometric figures, superposed on a flat soil background. A computer simulation program is developed to investigate image characteristics at various spatial aggregations representative of satellite observational scales, or pixels. The evolution of the shape and structure of the red-infrared space, or scattergram, of typical semivegetated scenes is investigated by sequentially introducing model variables into the simulation. The analytical moments of the total pixel reflectance, including the mean, variance, spatial covariance, and cross-spectral covariance, are derived in terms of the moments of the individual fractional cover and reflectance components. The moments are applied to the solution of the inverse problem: The estimation of subpixel landscape properties on a pixel-by-pixel basis, given only one multispectral image and limited assumptions on the structure of the landscape. The landsurface reflectance model and inversion technique are tested using actual aerial radiometric data collected over regularly spaced pecan trees, and using both aerial and LANDSAT Thematic Mapper data obtained over discontinuous, randomly spaced conifer canopies in a natural forested watershed. Different amounts of solar backscattered diffuse radiation are assumed and the sensitivity of the estimated landsurface parameters to those amounts is examined.

Jasinski, Michael F.↗

Topology-selective jamming of fully-connected, code-division random-access networks

The purpose is to introduce certain models of topology selective stochastic jamming and examine its impact on a class of fully-connected, spread-spectrum, slotted ALOHA-type random access networks. The theory covers dedicated as well as half-duplex units. The dominant role of the spatial duty factor is established, and connections with the dual concept of time selective jamming are discussed. The optimal choices of coding rate and link access parameters (from the users' side) and the jamming spatial fraction are numerically established for DS and FH spreading.

Polydoros, Andreas↗

Sensitivity of the normalized difference vegetation index to subpixel canopy cover, soil albedo, and pixel scale

An analytical framework is provided for examining the physically based behavior of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in terms of the variability in bulk subpixel landscape components and with respect to variations in pixel scales, within the context of the stochastic-geometric canopy reflectance model. Analysis focuses on regional scale variability in horizontal plant density and soil background reflectance distribution. Modeling is generalized to different plant geometries and solar angles through the use of the nondimensional solar-geometric similarity parameter. Results demonstrate that, for Poisson-distributed plants and for one deterministic distribution, NDVI increases with increasing subpixel fractional canopy amount, decreasing soil background reflectance, and increasing shadows, at least within the limitations of the geometric reflectance model. The NDVI of a pecan orchard and a juniper landscape is presented and discussed.

Jasinski, Michael F.↗

A NASTRAN-based computer program for structural dynamic analysis of Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines

This paper describes a computer program developed for structural dynamic analysis of horizontal axis wind turbines (HAWT's). It is based on the finite element method through its reliance on NASTRAN for the development of mass, stiffness, and damping matrices of the tower end rotor, which are treated in NASTRAN as separate structures. The tower is modeled in a stationary frame and the rotor in one rotating at a constant angular velocity. The two structures are subsequently joined together (external to NASTRAN) using a time-dependent transformation consistent with the hub configuration. Aerodynamic loads are computed with an established flow model based on strip theory. Aeroelastic effects are included by incorporating the local velocity and twisting deformation of the blade in the load computation. The turbulent nature of the wind, both in space and time, is modeled by adding in stochastic wind increments. The resulting equations of motion are solved in the time domain using the implicit Newmark-Beta integrator. Preliminary comparisons with data from the Boeing/NASA MOD2 HAWT indicate that the code is capable of accurately and efficiently predicting the response of HAWT's driven by turbulent winds.

Lobitz, Don W.↗

Free Vibration of Uncertain Unsymmetrically Laminated Beams

Monte Carlo Simulation and Stochastic FEA are used to predict randomness in the free vibration response of thin unsymmetrically laminated beams. For the present study, it is assumed that randomness in the response is only caused by uncertainties in the ply orientations. The ply orientations may become random or uncertain during the manufacturing process. A new 16-dof beam element, based on the first-order shear deformation beam theory, is used to study the stochastic nature of the natural frequencies. Using variational principles, the element stiffness matrix and mass matrix are obtained through analytical integration. Using a random sequence a large data set is generated, containing possible random ply-orientations. This data is assumed to be symmetric. The stochastic-based finite element model for free vibrations predicts the relation between the randomness in fundamental natural frequencies and the randomness in ply-orientation. The sensitivity derivatives are calculated numerically through an exact formulation. The squared fundamental natural frequencies are expressed in terms of deterministic and probabilistic quantities, allowing to determine how sensitive they are to variations in ply angles. The predicted mean-valued fundamental natural frequency squared and the variance of the present model are in good agreement with Monte Carlo Simulation. Results, also, show that variations between plus or minus 5 degrees in ply-angles can affect free vibration response of unsymmetrically and symmetrically laminated beams.

Kapania, Rakesh K.↗

Quantification of scaling exponents and crossover phenomena in nonstationary heartbeat time series

The healthy heartbeat is traditionally thought to be regulated according to the classical principle of homeostasis whereby physiologic systems operate to reduce variability and achieve an equilibrium-like state [Physiol. Rev. 9, 399-431 (1929)]. However, recent studies [Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 1343-1346 (1993); Fractals in Biology and Medicine (Birkhauser-Verlag, Basel, 1994), pp. 55-65] reveal that under normal conditions, beat-to-beat fluctuations in heart rate display the kind of long-range correlations typically exhibited by dynamical systems far from equilibrium [Phys. Rev. Lett. 59, 381-384 (1987)]. In contrast, heart rate time series from patients with severe congestive heart failure show a breakdown of this long-range correlation behavior. We describe a new method--detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA)--for quantifying this correlation property in non-stationary physiological time series. Application of this technique shows evidence for a crossover phenomenon associated with a change in short and long-range scaling exponents. This method may be of use in distinguishing healthy from pathologic data sets based on differences in these scaling properties.

NASA Discipline Number 14-10↗