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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Efficient data reduction for time-of-flight neutron scattering experiments on single crystals

Event-mode data collection presents remarkable new opportunities for time-of-flight neutron scattering studies of collective excitations, diffuse scattering from short-range atomic and magnetic structures, and neutron crystallography. In these experiments, large volumes of the reciprocal space are surveyed, often using different wavelengths and counting times. These data then have to be added together, with accurate propagation of the counting errors. This paper presents a statistically correct way of adding and histogramming the data for single-crystal time-of-flight neutron scattering measurements. In order to gain a broader community acceptance, particular attention is given to improving the efficiency of calculations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

JADE

JADE provides a simple, flexible interface to submit jobs to an HPC. JADE is an HPC workflow management system that enables researchers to run simulations efficiently. It provides a simple, flexible interface to define jobs, as well as dependencies between jobs, and then dispatch them to an HPC with maximized parallelization. It also provides detailed error reporting and resource utilization statistics to aid in debugging problems.

Thom, Daniel↗

DOE OSTI2015

Multifamily Envelope Leakage Model

The objective of the 2013 research project was to develop the model for predicting fully guarded test results (FGT), using unguarded test data and specific building features of apartment units. The model developed has a coefficient of determination R2 value of 0.53 with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.13. Both statistical metrics indicate that the model is relatively strong. When tested against data that was not included in the development of the model, prediction accuracy was within 19%, which is reasonable given that seasonal differences in blower door measurements can vary by as much as 25%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2018

Nuclear Technology Research and Development (NTRD) Technical Monthly February FY18

[LANL] Energy-resolved neutron imaging data on transmutation fuels (Figure 1A) containing Am and Np were reanalyzed. The analysis using the SAMMY code was focused on retrieving absolute densities for five isotopes, 238U, 239Pu, 240Pu, 241Am and 237Np. The bulk composition described by partial densities of the main isotopes 237Np, 239Pu, 240Pu, and 242Am, resultant from the initial analysis agreed to better than 0.1 g/cc with the partial densities determined by mass spectrometry, except for 238U, which was overestimated by the initial approach. It was found that due to only a single resonance of 238U present in the fitted energy range of 1eV to 9eV (Figure 1 B), the refined areal densities for 238U were statistically insignificant, resulting in large errors. Consequently, the fitted energy range was extended to 24eV to include a second 238U resonance (Figure 1C, D), which stabilized the 238U areal densities, providing excellent agreement for all five isotopes. (A. Losko and S. Vogel)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Prediction and compression of lattice QCD data using machine learning algorithms on quantum annealer

We present regression and compression algorithms for lattice QCD data utilizing the efficient binary optimization ability of quantum annealers. In the regression algorithm, we encode the correlation between the input and output variables into a sparse coding machine learning algorithm. The trained correlation pattern is used to predict lattice QCD observables of unseen lattice configurations from other observables measured on the lattice. In the compression algorithm, we define a mapping from lattice QCD data of floating-point numbers to the binary coefficients that closely reconstruct the input data from a set of basis vectors. Since the reconstruction is not exact, the mapping defines a lossy compression, but, a reasonably small number of binary coefficients are able to reconstruct the input vector of lattice QCD data with the reconstruction error much smaller than the statistical fluctuation. In both applications, we use D-Wave quantum annealers to solve the NP-hard binary optimization problems of the machine learning algorithms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Impact of model improvements on 80 m wind speeds during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2)

Abstract. During the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2; October 2015–March 2017, held in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin area of eastern Washington and Oregon states), several improvements to the parameterizations used in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR – 3 km horizontal grid spacing) and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Nest (HRRRNEST – 750 m horizontal grid spacing) numerical weather prediction (NWP) models were tested during four 6-week reforecast periods (one for each season). For these tests the models were run in control (CNT) and experimental (EXP) configurations, with the EXP configuration including all the improved parameterizations. The impacts of the experimental parameterizations on the forecast of 80 m wind speeds (wind turbine hub height) from the HRRR and HRRRNEST models are assessed, using observations collected by 19 sodars and three profiling lidars for comparison. Improvements due to the experimental physics (EXP vs. CNT runs) and those due to finer horizontal grid spacing (HRRRNEST vs. HRRR) and the combination of the two are compared, using standard bulk statistics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and mean bias error (bias). On average, the HRRR 80 m wind speed MAE is reduced by 3 %–4 % due to the experimental physics. The impact of the finer horizontal grid spacing in the CNT runs also shows a positive improvement of 5 % on MAE, which is particularly large at nighttime and during the morning transition. Lastly, the combined impact of the experimental physics and finer horizontal grid spacing produces larger improvements in the 80 m wind speed MAE, up to 7 %–8 %. The improvements are evaluated as a function of the model's initialization time, forecast horizon, time of the day, season of the year, site elevation, and meteorological phenomena. Causes of model weaknesses are identified. Finally, bias correction methods are applied to the 80 m wind speed model outputs to measure their impact on the improvements due to the removal of the systematic component of the errors.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

Building America Case Study: Predicting Envelope Leakage in Attached Dwellings (Fact Sheet)

'The cost for blower testing is high, because it is labor intensive, and it may disrupt occupants in multiple units. This high cost and disruption deters program participants, and dissuades them from pursuing energy improvements that would trigger air leakage testing, such as improvements to the building envelope.' This statement found in a 2012 report by Heschong Mahone Group emphasizes the importance of reducing the cost and complexity of blower testing in multifamily buildings. Energy efficiency opportunities are being bypassed. The cost of single blower testing is on the order of $300. The cost for guarded blower door testing, the more appropriate test for assessing energy savings opportunities, could easily be six times that and that's only if you have the equipment and simultaneous access to multiple apartments. Thus, the proper test is simply not performed. The objective of the 2013 research project was to develop the model for predicting fully guarded test results (FGT), using unguarded test data and specific building features of apartment units. The model developed has a coefficient of determination R2 value of 0.53 with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.13. Both statistical metrics indicate that the model is relatively strong. When tested against data that was not included in the development of the model, prediction accuracy was within 19%, which is reasonable given that seasonal differences in blower door measurements can vary by as much as 25%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2013

Uncertainty propagation in full-core Monte Carlo depletion simulations using Serpent

The desire to accurately model the heterogeneity of the nuclear reactor environment combined with the ever more powerful computational resources have made in recent years the use of Monte Carlo method more attractive and feasible (if challenging) even for 3-D full core depletion simulation. However, in this case statistical uncertainty is combined with error propagating through the calculation from previous steps. In an effort to understand this error propagation, a numerical study was undertaken and previously reported modeling depletion of a four fuel assemblies (a 'quad'). This work extends results and analysis on a full nuclear reactor core depletion simulation where isotopics of individual fuel pins is tracked. By changing the code's initial random number seed, the data produced by a series of 19 replica runs was used to investigate the true and apparent variance in k{sub eff} and pin powers. It is hoped that this results can help to identify some common regularities in the behavior of uncertainty in several key parameters, and ultimately develop a predictive model. (authors)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2013

Safeguards and security modeling for electrochemical plants

Safeguards and security design for reprocessing plants can lead to excessive costs if not incorporated early in the design process. The design for electrochemical plants is somewhat uncertain since these plants have not been built at a commercial scale in the past. The Separation and Safeguards Performance Model (SSPM), developed at Sandia National Laboratories, has been used for safeguards design and evaluation for multiple reprocessing plant types. The SSPM includes the following capabilities: -) spent fuel source term library, -) mass tracking of elements 1-99 and bulk solid/liquids, -) tracking of heat load and activity, -) customisable measurement points, -) automated calculation of ID and error propagation, -) alarm conditions and statistical tests, and -) user-defined diversion scenarios. Materials accountancy and process monitoring data can provide more timely detection of material loss specifically to protect against the insider threat. While the SSPM is capable of determining detection probabilities and examining detection times for material loss scenarios, it does not model the operations or spatial effects for a plant design. The STAGE software was chosen to model the physical protection system. STAGE provides a framework to create end-to-end scalable force-on-force combat simulations. It allows for a complete 3D model of a facility to be designed along with the design of physical protection elements. This software, then, can be used to model operations and response for various material loss scenarios. The future integration of the SSPM model data with the STAGE software will provide a more complete analysis of diversion scenarios to assist plant designers.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rare events and Griffiths phases in topological quantum error correction

The performance of quantum error correcting (QEC) codes is often studied under the assumption of spatiotemporally uniform error rates. On the other hand, experimental implementations almost always produce heterogeneous error rates, in either space or time, as a result of effects such as imperfect fabrication and/or cosmic rays. It is therefore important to understand if and how their presence can affect the performance of QEC in qualitative ways. Here, in this work, we study the effects of nonuniform error rates in the representative examples of the 1D repetition code and the 2D toric code, focusing on when they have extended spatiotemporal correlations; these may arise, for instance, from rare events (such as cosmic rays) that temporarily elevate error rates over the entire code patch. These effects can be described in the corresponding statistical mechanics models for decoding, where long-range correlations in the error rates lead to extended rare regions of weaker coupling. For the 1D repetition code where the rare regions are linear, we find two distinct decodable phases: a conventional ordered phase in which logical failure rates decay exponentially with the code distance, and a rare-region dominated Griffiths phase in which failure rates are parametrically larger and decay as a stretched exponential. In particular, the latter phase is present when the error rates in the rare regions are above the bulk threshold. For the 2D toric code where the rare regions are planar, we find no decodable Griffiths phase: rare events which boost error rates above the bulk threshold lead to an asymptotic loss of threshold and failure to decode. Unpacking the failure mechanism implies that techniques for suppressing extended sequences of repeated rare events (which, without intervention, will be statistically present with high probability) will be crucial for QEC with the toric code.

classical statistical mechanics↗

DOE OSTI2015

Micrometer-resolved film dosimetry using a microscope in microbeam radiation therapy

Purpose: Microbeam radiation therapy (MRT) is a still preclinical tumor therapy approach that uses arrays of a few tens of micrometer wide parallel beams separated by a few 100 μm. The production, measurement, and planning of such radiation fields are a challenge up to now. Here, the authors investigate the feasibility of radiochromic film dosimetry in combination with a microscopic readout as a tool to validate peak and valley doses in MRT, which is an important requirement for a future clinical application of the therapy. Methods: Gafchromic{sup ®} HD-810 and HD-V2 films are exposed to MRT fields at the biomedical beamline ID17 of the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility (ESRF) and are afterward scanned with a microscope. The measured dose is compared with Monte Carlo calculations. Image analysis tools and film handling protocols are developed that allow accurate and reproducible dosimetry. The performance of HD-810 and HD-V2 films is compared and a detailed analysis of the resolution, noise, and energy dependence is carried out. Measurement uncertainties are identified and analyzed. Results: The dose was measured with a resolution of 5 × 1000 μm{sup 2} and an accuracy of 5% in the peak and between 10% and 15% in the valley region. As main causes for dosimetry uncertainties, statistical noise, film inhomogeneities, and calibration errors were identified. Calibration errors strongly increase at low doses and exceeded 3% for doses below 50 and 70 Gy for HD-V2 and HD-810 films, respectively. While the grain size of both film types is approximately 2 μm, the statistical noise in HD-V2 is much higher than in HD-810 films. However, HD-810 films show a higher energy dependence at low photon energies. Conclusions: Both film types are appropriate for dosimetry in MRT and the microscope is superior to the microdensitometer used before at the ESRF with respect to resolution and reproducibility. However, a very careful analysis of the image data is required. Dosimetry at low photon energies should be performed with great caution due to the energy sensitivity of the films. In this respect, HD-V2 films showed to have an advantage over HD-810 films. However, HD-810 films have a lower statistical noise level. When a higher resolution is required, e.g., for the dosimetry of pencil beam irradiations, noise may render HD-V2 films inapplicable.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2015

Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis

Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-J-248: Comparative Study of Two Image Registration for Image-Guided Radiation Therapy in Esophageal Cancer

Purpose: Image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT) is one of the major treatment of esophageal cancer. Gray value registration and bone registration are two kinds of image registration, the purpose of this work is to compare which one is more suitable for esophageal cancer patients. Methods: Twenty three esophageal patients were treated by Elekta Synergy, CBCT images were acquired and automatically registered to planning kilovoltage CT scans according to gray value or bone registration. The setup errors were measured in the X, Y and Z axis, respectively. Two kinds of setup errors were analysed by matching T test statistical method. Results: Four hundred and five groups of CBCT images were available and the systematic and random setup errors (cm) in X, Y, Z directions were 0.35, 0.63, 0.29 and 0.31, 0.53, 0.21 with gray value registration, while 0.37, 0.64, 0.26 and 0.32, 0.55, 0.20 with bone registration, respectively. Compared with bone registration and gray value registration, the setup errors in X and Z axis have significant differences. In Y axis, both measurement comparison results of T value is 0.256 (P value > 0.05); In X axis, the T value is 5.287(P value < 0.05); In Z axis, the T value is −5.138 (P value < 0.05). Conclusion: Gray value registration is recommended in image-guided radiotherapy for esophageal cancer and the other thoracic tumors. Manual registration could be applied when it is necessary. Bone registration is more suitable for the head tumor and pelvic tumor department where composed of redundant interconnected and immobile bone tissue.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Comparing multiple statistical methods for inverse prediction in nuclear forensics applications

Forensic science seeks to predict source characteristics using measured observables. Statistically, this objective can be thought of as an inverse problem where interest is in the unknown source characteristics or factors ( X ) of some underlying causal model producing the observables or responses (Y = g ( X ) + error ). Here, this paper reviews several statistical methods for use in inverse problems and demonstrates that comparing results from multiple methods can be used to assess predictive capability. Motivation for assessing inverse predictions comes from the desired application to historical and future experiments involving nuclear material production for forensics research in which inverse predictions, along with an assessment of predictive capability, are desired.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Error field predictability and consequences for ITER

Abstract ITER coil tolerances are re-evaluated using the modern understanding of coupling to least-stable plasma modes and an updated center-line-traced model of ITER’s coil windings. This reassessment finds the tolerances to be conservative through a statistical, linear study of n = 1 error fields (EFs) due to tilted, shifted misplacements and nominal windings of central solenoid and poloidal field coils within tolerance. We also show that a model-based correction scheme remains effective even when metrology quality is sub-optimal, and compare this to projected empirical correction schemes. We begin with an analysis of the necessity of error field correction (EFC) for daily operation in ITER using scalign laws for the EF penetration threshold. We then consider the predictability of EF dominant mode overlap across early planned ITER scenarios and, as measuring EFs in high power scenarios can pose risks to the device, the potential for extrapolation to the ITER Baseline Scenario (IBS). We find that carefully designing a scenario matching currents proportionally to those of the IBS is far more important than plasma shape or profiles in accurately measuring an optimal correction current set.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

How Representative Are Uncrewed Aircraft System Measurements of the Convective Boundary Layer?

Abstract Uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) demonstrate significant potential for filling data gaps in the atmospheric boundary layer. However, the extent to which UAS observations—typically vertical profiles taken over 15 min—are representative of the boundary layer as a whole remains poorly characterized. Using large eddy simulations (LES) of the daytime convective boundary layer (CBL), we quantify random errors in UAS measurements that occur due to insufficient statistical convergence of the time average to the true ensemble mean. Random errors in first‐order moments increase as the CBL becomes increasingly unstable, and are largest near the surface for most quantities. Errors are on the order of 2–6 m for wind speed, 15–60 for wind direction, 0.2–3 K for potential temperature, and 0.1–1 g for specific humidity, with errors in turbulent fluxes on the order of 50%–100%. Sampling strategies that mitigate random errors are discussed in light of our results.

Greene, Brian R. [Now at Verisk Extreme Event Solu↗

DOE OSTI2015

Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Accounting for erroneous model structures in biokinetic process models

In engineering practice, model-based design requires not only a good process-based model, but also a good description of stochastic disturbances and measurement errors to learn credible parameter values from observations. However, typical methods use Gaussian error models, which often cannot describe the complex temporal patterns of residuals. Consequently, this results in overconfidence in the identified parameters and, in turn, optimistic reactor designs. Here, we assess the strengths and weaknesses of a method to statistically describe these patterns with autocorrelated error models. This method produces increased widths of the credible prediction intervals following the inclusion of the bias term, in turn leading to more conservative design choices. However, we also show that the augmented error model is not a universal tool, as its application cannot guarantee the desired reliability of the resulting wastewater reactor design.

42 ENGINEERING↗