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At least 487 records · Page 27

The Problem of Size in Robust Design

To facilitate the effective solution of multidisciplinary, multiobjective complex design problems, a departure from the traditional parametric design analysis and single objective optimization approaches is necessary in the preliminary stages of design. A necessary tradeoff becomes one of efficiency vs. accuracy as approximate models are sought to allow fast analysis and effective exploration of a preliminary design space. In this paper we apply a general robust design approach for efficient and comprehensive preliminary design to a large complex system: a high speed civil transport (HSCT) aircraft. Specifically, we investigate the HSCT wing configuration design, incorporating life cycle economic uncertainties to identify economically robust solutions. The approach is built on the foundation of statistical experimentation and modeling techniques and robust design principles, and is specialized through incorporation of the compromise Decision Support Problem for multiobjective design. For large problems however, as in the HSCT example, this robust design approach developed for efficient and comprehensive design breaks down with the problem of size - combinatorial explosion in experimentation and model building with number of variables -and both efficiency and accuracy are sacrificed. Our focus in this paper is on identifying and discussing the implications and open issues associated with the problem of size for the preliminary design of large complex systems.

Koch, Patrick N.↗

Adaptive procedures in multispectral pattern recognition

Two types of discrete adaptive procedures are proposed for updating statistical parameters such as the means and covariance matrices. These two types include nonweighted adaptive procedures and weighted adaptive procedures. It is believed that the use of the proposed procedures will enhance the performance accuracy of a pattern recognition system. The procedures discussed include an approach for a weighted mean vector adaptation.

Chang, C. Y.↗

Fokker-Planck response of stochastic satellites

The present investigation is concerned with the effects of stochastic geometry and random environmental torques on the pointing accuracy of spinning and three-axis stabilized satellites. The study of pointing accuracies requires a knowledge of the rates of error growth over and above any criteria for the asymptotic stability of the satellites. For this reason the investigation is oriented toward the determination of the statistical properties of the responses of the satellites. The geometries of the satellites are considered stochastic so as to have a phenomenological model of the motions of the flexible structural elements of the satellites. A widely used method of solving stochastic equations is the Fokker-Planck approach where the equations are assumed to define a Markoff process and the transition probability densities of the responses are computed directly as a function of time. The Fokker-Planck formulation is used to analyze the response vector of a rigid satellite.

Huang, T. C.↗

Grid Resolution Study over Operability Space for a Mach 1.7 Low Boom External Compression Inlet

This paper presents a statistical methodology whereby the probability limits associated with CFD grid resolution of inlet flow analysis can be determined which provide quantitative information on the distribution of that error over the specified operability range. The objectives of this investigation is to quantify the effects of both random (accuracy) and systemic (biasing) errors associated with grid resolution in the analysis of the Lockheed Martin Company (LMCO) N+2 Low Boom external compression supersonic inlet. The study covers the entire operability space as defined previously by the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) High Speed Research (HSR) program goals. The probability limits in terms of a 95.0% confidence interval on the analysis data were evaluated for four ARP1420 inlet metrics, namely (1) total pressure recovery (PFAIP), (2) radial hub distortion (DPH/P), (3) ) radial tip distortion (DPT/P), and (4) ) circumferential distortion (DPC/P). In general, the resulting +/-0.95 delta Y interval was unacceptably large in comparison to the stated goals of the HSCT program. Therefore, the conclusion was reached that the "standard grid" size was insufficient for this type of analysis. However, in examining the statistical data, it was determined that the CFD analysis results at the outer fringes of the operability space were the determining factor in the measure of statistical uncertainty. Adequate grids are grids that are free of biasing (systemic) errors and exhibit low random (precision) errors in comparison to their operability goals. In order to be 100% certain that the operability goals have indeed been achieved for each of the inlet metrics, the Y+/-0.95 delta Y limit must fall inside the stated operability goals. For example, if the operability goal for DPC/P circumferential distortion is ≤0.06, then the forecast Y for DPC/P plus the 95% confidence interval on DPC/P, i.e. +/-0.95 delta Y, must all be less than or equal to 0.06.

Grid↗

DNS and LES of a Shear-Free Mixing Layer

The purpose of this work is twofold. First, given the computational resources available today, it is possible to reach, using DNS, higher Reynolds numbers than in Briggs et al.. In the present study, the microscale Reynolds numbers reached in the low- and high-energy homogeneous regions are, respectively, 32 and 69. The results reported earlier can thus be complemented and their robustness in the presence of increased turbulence studied. The second aim of this work is to perform a detailed and documented LES of the shear-free mixing layer. In that respect, the creation of a DNS database at higher Reynolds number is necessary in order to make meaningful LES assessments. From the point of view of LES, the shear-free mixing-layer is interesting since it allows one to test how traditional LES models perform in the presence of an inhomogeneity without having to deal with difficult numerical issues. Indeed, as argued in Briggs et al., it is possible to use a spectral code to study the shear-free mixing layer and one can thus focus on the accuracy of the modelling while avoiding contamination of the results by commutation errors etc. This paper is organized as follows. First we detail the initialization procedure used in the simulation. Since the flow is not statistically stationary, this initialization procedure has a fairly strong influence on the evolution. Although we will focus here on the shear-free mixing layer, the method proposed in the present work can easily be used for other flows with one inhomogeneous direction. The next section of the article is devoted to the description of the DNS. All the relevant parameters are listed and comparison with the Veeravalli & Warhaft experiment is performed. The section on the LES of the shear-free mixing layer follows. A detailed comparison between the filtered DNS data and the LES predictions is presented. It is shown that simple eddy viscosity models perform very well for the present test case, most probably because the flow seems to be almost isotropic in the small-scale range that is not resolved by the LES.

Knaepen, B.↗

Unified Lunar Control Network 2005 and Topographic Model

There are currently two generally accepted lunar control networks. These are the Unified Lunar Control Network (ULCN) and the Clementine Lunar Control Network (CLCN), both derived by M. Davies and T. Colvin at RAND. We address here our efforts to merge and improve these networks into a new ULCN. The ULCN was described in the last major publication about a lunar control network. The statistics on this and the other networks discussed here. Images for this network are from the Apollo, Mariner 10, and Galileo missions, and Earth-based photographs. The importance of this network is that its accuracy is relatively well quantified and published information on the network is available. The CLCN includes measurements on 43,871 Clementine 750-nm images - the largest planetary control network ever computed. This purpose of this network was to determine the geometry for the Clementine Basemap Mosiac (CBM). The geometry of that mosaic was used to produce the Clementine UVVIS digital image model and the Near-Infrared Global Multispectral Map of the Moon from Clementine. Through the extensive use of these products, they and the underlying CLCN in effect define the generally accepted current coordinate system for reporting and describing the location of lunar coordinates. However, no publication describes the CLCN itself.

Archinal, B. A.↗

Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool

The goal of this task was to upgrade to the existing severe weather database by adding observations from the 2010 warm season, update the verification dataset with results from the 2010 warm season, use statistical logistic regression analysis on the database and develop a new forecast tool. The AMU analyzed 7 stability parameters that showed the possibility of providing guidance in forecasting severe weather, calculated verification statistics for the Total Threat Score (TTS), and calculated warm season verification statistics for the 2010 season. The AMU also performed statistical logistic regression analysis on the 22-year severe weather database. The results indicated that the logistic regression equation did not show an increase in skill over the previously developed TTS. The equation showed less accuracy than TTS at predicting severe weather, little ability to distinguish between severe and non-severe weather days, and worse standard categorical accuracy measures and skill scores over TTS.

Watson, Leela↗

Standard deviation of scatterometer measurements from space.

The standard deviation of scatterometer measurements has been derived under assumptions applicable to spaceborne scatterometers. Numerical results are presented which show that, with sufficiently long integration times, input signal-to-noise ratios below unity do not cause excessive degradation of measurement accuracy. The effects on measurement accuracy due to varying integration times and changing the ratio of signal bandwidth to IF filter-noise bandwidth are also plotted. The results of the analysis may resolve a controversy by showing that in fact statistically useful scatterometer measurements can be made from space using a 20-W transmitter, such as will be used on the S-193 experiment for Skylab-A.

Fischer, R. E.↗

Decision rules for unbiased inventory estimates

An efficient and accurate procedure for estimating inventories from remote sensing scenes is presented. In place of the conventional and expensive full dimensional Bayes decision rule, a one-dimensional feature extraction and classification technique was employed. It is shown that this efficient decision rule can be used to develop unbiased inventory estimates and that for large sample sizes typical of satellite derived remote sensing scenes, resulting accuracies are comparable or superior to more expensive alternative procedures. Mathematical details of the procedure are provided in the body of the report and in the appendix. Results of a numerical simulation of the technique using statistics obtained from an observed LANDSAT scene are included. The simulation demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique in computing accurate inventory estimates.

Argentiero, P. D.↗

LANDSAT Applications for the State of Delaware

The first phase of a cooperative demonstration project between the Eastern Regional Remote Sensing Applications Center and the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control is summarized. Separate land cover classifications were performed for three counties in Delaware using multiseasonal LANDSAT data from April 3 and July 20, 1974. The objective of the New Castle County and Kent County classifications was to provide general land cover information with special emphasis on existing farmland and deciduous and coniferous forest, respectively. A detailed study of existing inland and coastal wetland vegetation communities was attempted for Sussex County. Detailed accuracy assessments were conducted for general land cover in New Castle and Kent Counties and for wetland communities in Sussex County. The classifications were combined to provide a statewide Level I land cover map and acreage statistics. Based on these results, the participating state agencies determined that LANDSAT is a viable tool for mapping and monitoring land cover within the state.

Gervin, J. C.↗

Geopositional Statistical Methods

RMSE based methods distort circular error estimates (up to 50% overestimation). The empirical approach is the only statistically unbiased estimator offered. Ager modification to Shultz approach is nearly unbiased, but cumbersome. All methods hover around 20% uncertainty (@ 95% confidence) for low geopositional bias error estimates. This requires careful consideration in assessment of higher accuracy products.

Ross, Kenton↗

Data-driven Expectations for Electromagnetic Counterpart Searches Based on LIGO/Virgo Public Alerts

Searches for electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational-wave signals have redoubled since the first detection in2017 of a binary neutron star merger with a gamma-ray burst, optical/infrared kilonova, and panchromatic after glow. Yet, one LIGO/Virgo observing run later, there has not yet been a second, secure identification of an electromagnetic counterpart. This is not surprising given that the localization uncertainties of events in LIGO and Virgo’s third observing run, O3, were much larger than predicted. We explain this by showing that improvements in data analysis that now allow LIGO/Virgo to detect weaker and hence more poorly localized events have increased the overall number of detections, of which well-localized, gold-plated events make up a smaller proportion overall. We present simulations of the next two LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing runs, O4 and O5, that are grounded in the statistics ofO3 public alerts. To illustrate the significant impact that the updated predictions can have, we study the follow-up strategy for the Zwicky Transient Facility. Realistic and timely forecasting of gravitational-wave localization accuracy is paramount given the large commitments of telescope time and the need to prioritize which events are followed up. We include a data release of our simulated localizations as a public proposal planning resource for astronomers

Polina Petrov↗

Parameters Impacting Columnated Granular Soil Pneumatic Seal Performance

The ability of a column of loose granular soil to form a pneumatic seal was investigated by varying the diameter of the soil column, the effective column height, and the level of compaction in the soil. The soil column diameter was tested at three levels using pipes with inner diameters measuring 5.08, 10.16, and 15.24 centimeters (2, 4, and 6 inches). Soil was filled in each pipe to form 15, 30, and 45 centimeter (6, 12, and 18 inch) tall soil columns. Each diameter/height configuration was also tested at three levels of soil compaction, compared by calculating the bulk density of the soil with mass and volume measurements. GRC-1a simulant was used, with approximate low/medium/high bulk densities of 1.6, 1.75, and 1.9 g/cc achieved with a combination of vibration and tamping. The order of tests for a given column diameter was randomized and repeated three times. With the top of the soil open to atmosphere at room temperature, compressed air was injected through a small diffuser at the column base with several small downward-facing holes. The number and size of these holes was scaled such that a constant total inlet orifice area to column cross sectional area ratio was maintained for each column diameter. Inlet air pressure was slowly increased via a precision regulator to preserve quasi-static equilibrium in the soil column to minimize the impact of dynamics. Air pressure was increased all the way through the static and bubbling regimes until slugging or turbulent behavior was observed in the soil to ensure that the entire static regime had been captured during data collection. A three-factor, three-level analysis of variance (ANOVA) statistical analysis was performed on the resulting data to determine the extent to which each physical parameter impacted the soil column seal performance. It was concluded that there is statistically significant evidence that column height, and the interaction between column height and diameter impact soil seal performance. In all other cases there was insufficient data to identify a statistically significant causal relationship. Additionally, plots were generated comparing experimental data to the predictive formula developed by Ogino et al. for fluidized beds in 1993. Because this model was developed for industrial spouted fluidized beds, the accuracy of its output prior to fluidization in the static seal ‘edge case’ is unknown, especially considering in this application the working gas was diffused across the column base rather than being injected through a spout. Further, the fidelity of the model had not yet been tested with lunar soil simulants. Plotting the Ogino et al. model alongside test data allows for a more intuitive sense of the impact of test parameters on soil seal performance, as well as providing a quick means to further tune this predictive model for more accurate use with static seals across granular lunar soil simulants. The model provided by Ogino et al. was further tuned using test data to determine the degree to which a spouted bed model could be applied to a slightly modified set of testing conditions: lunar soil simulants and a more diffuse, homogeneous application of pneumatic pressure. A Matlab script was created to test different values for the leading coefficient and exponents in Ogino’s formula. The script swept preset ranges, then iterated with higher resolutions across narrower ranges to converge on the optimal value for each parameter. The resulting adjusted model was compared to the original, as well as test data with noticeable improvements across the entire test domain.

Jack Stewart↗

GPS vertical axis performance enhancement for helicopter precision landing approach

Several areas were investigated for improving vertical accuracy for a rotorcraft using the differential Global Positioning System (GPS) during a landing approach. Continuous deltaranging was studied and the potential improvement achieved by estimating acceleration was studied by comparing the performance on a constant acceleration turn and a rough landing profile of several filters: a position-velocity (PV) filter, a position-velocity-constant acceleration (PVAC) filter, and a position-velocity-turning acceleration (PVAT) filter. In overall statistics, the PVAC filter was found to be most efficient with the more complex PVAT performing equally well. Vertical performance was not significantly different among the filters. Satellite selection algorithms based on vertical errors only (vertical dilution of precision or VDOP) and even-weighted cross-track and vertical errors (XVDOP) were tested. The inclusion of an altimeter was studied by modifying the PVAC filter to include a baro bias estimate. Improved vertical accuracy during degraded DOP conditions resulted. Flight test results for raw differential results excluding filter effects indicated that the differential performance significantly improved overall navigation accuracy. A landing glidepath steering algorithm was devised which exploits the flexibility of GPS in determining precise relative position. A method for propagating the steering command over the GPS update interval was implemented.

Denaro, Robert P.↗

Retrieval of Soil Moisture and Roughness from the Polarimetric Radar Response

The main objective of this investigation was the characterization of soil moisture using imaging radars. In order to accomplish this task, a number of intermediate steps had to be undertaken. In this proposal, the theoretical, numerical, and experimental aspects of electromagnetic scattering from natural surfaces was considered with emphasis on remote sensing of soil moisture. In the general case, the microwave backscatter from natural surfaces is mainly influenced by three major factors: (1) the roughness statistics of the soil surface, (2) soil moisture content, and (3) soil surface cover. First the scattering problem from bare-soil surfaces was considered and a hybrid model that relates the radar backscattering coefficient to soil moisture and surface roughness was developed. This model is based on extensive experimental measurements of the radar polarimetric backscatter response of bare soil surfaces at microwave frequencies over a wide range of moisture conditions and roughness scales in conjunction with existing theoretical surface scattering models in limiting cases (small perturbation, physical optics, and geometrical optics models). Also a simple inversion algorithm capable of providing accurate estimates of soil moisture content and surface rms height from single-frequency multi-polarization radar observations was developed. The accuracy of the model and its inversion algorithm is demonstrated using independent data sets. Next the hybrid model for bare-soil surfaces is made fully polarimetric by incorporating the parameters of the co- and cross-polarized phase difference into the model. Experimental data in conjunction with numerical simulations are used to relate the soil moisture content and surface roughness to the phase difference statistics. For this purpose, a novel numerical scattering simulation for inhomogeneous dielectric random surfaces was developed. Finally the scattering problem of short vegetation cover above a rough soil surface was considered. A general scattering model for grass-blades of arbitrary cross section was developed and incorporated in a first order random media model. The vegetation model and the bare-soil model are combined and the accuracy of the combined model is evaluated against experimental observations from a wheat field over the entire growing season. A complete set of ground-truth data and polarimetric backscatter data were collected. Also an inversion algorithm for estimating soil moisture and surface roughness from multi-polarized multi-frequency observations of vegetation-covered ground is developed.

Sarabandi, Kamal↗

Evaluation and Analysis of Seasat a Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) Antenna Pattern Correction (APC) Algorithm

The accuracy of the SEASAT-A SMMR antenna pattern correction (APC) algorithm was assessed. Interim APC brightness temperature measurements for the SMMR 6.6 GHz channels are compared with surface truth derived sea surface temperatures. Plots and associated statistics are presented for SEASAT-A SMMR data acquired for the Gulf of Alaska experiment. The cross-track gradients observed in the 6.6 GHz brightness temperature data are discussed.

Kitzis, S. N.↗

Environment definition, large particles

The orbital debris environment of objects larger than 1 sq met. in low Earth orbit (LEO) is fairly well defined. Objects of this size and altitude are tracked by NORAD with sufficient accuracy that collisions can be avoided by maneuvering a spacecraft away from regions of close approach. However for sizes smaller and at the higher geosynchrnous altitudes, the environment is not so well defined, and must be approached statistically. In order to determine if a significant number of these particles exist, or can be realistically produced, to cause a problem, a combination of modeling and data gathering is required.

Kessler, D. J.↗