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At least 487 records · Page 27

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NASA NTRS1982

Tropical cyclone track and genesis forecasting using satellite microwave sounder data

Although many dynamical and statistical prediction schemes are available to forecasters, tropical cyclone track errors are still large. One primary difficulty is that tropical cyclones exist over the data-sparse tropical oceans. Satellite sounders, however, routinely provide numerous data over these areas. Mean layer temperatures from the Scanning Microwave Spectrometer on board the Nimbus 6 satellite are decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions, and the expansion coefficients are related to deviations from the persistence forecast location, to speed change, to direction change and to intensity change. The significance of the regression equations is tested by a null hypothesis of zero correlation coefficient. It appears that significant information about tropical cyclone motion exists in the satellite-estimated mean layer temperatures, especially at upper levels. A physical interpretation of the statistical results is offered, and a one-storm-out independent test is used to test the stability of the equations. Finally, some further work is suggested.

Kidder, S. Q.↗

DOE OSTI2021

The case for digital twins in metal additive manufacturing

The digital twin (DT) is a relatively new concept that is finding increased acceptance in industry. A DT is generally considered as comprising a physical entity, its virtual replica, and two-way digital data communications in-between. Its primary purpose is to leverage the process intelligence captured within digital models—or usually their faster-solving surrogates—towards generating increased value from the physical entities. The surrogate models are created using machine learning based on data obtained from the field, experiments and digital models, which may be physics-based or statistics-based. Anomaly detection and correction, and diagnostic closed-loop process control are examples of how a process DT can be deployed. In the manufacturing industry, its use can achieve improvements in product quality and process productivity. Metal additive manufacturing (AM) stands to gain tremendously from the use of DTs. This is because the AM process is inherently chaotic, resulting in poor repeatability. However, a DT acting in a supervisory role can inject certainty into the process by actively keeping it within bounds through real-time control commands. Closed-loop feedforward control is achieved by observing the process through sensors that monitor critical parameters and, if there are any deviations from their respective optimal ranges, suitable corrective actions are triggered. The type of corrective action (e.g. a change in laser power or a modification to the scanning speed) and its magnitude are determined by interrogating the surrogate models. Because of their artificial intelligence (AI)-endowed predictive capabilities, which allow them to foresee a future state of the physical twin (e.g. the AM process), DTs proactively take context-sensitive preventative steps, whereas traditional closed-loop feedback control is usually reactive. Apart from assisting a build process in real-time, a DT can help with planning the build of a part by pinpointing the optimum processing window relevant to the desired outcome. Again, the surrogate models are consulted to obtain the required information. In this article, we explain how the application of DTs to the metal AM process can significantly widen its application space by making the process more repeatable (through quality assurance) and cheaper (by getting builds right the first time).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2008

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

Vlcek, Brian L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

Vlcek, Brian L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fluctuations of subsystem entropies at late times

We study the fluctuations of subsystem entropies in closed quantum many-body systems after thermalization. Using a combination of analytics and numerics for both random quantum circuits and Hamiltonian dynamics, we find that the statistics of such entropy fluctuations is drastically different than in the classical setting. For instance, shortly after a system thermalizes, the probability of entropy fluctuations for a subregion is suppressed in the dimension of the Hilbert space of the complementary subregion. This suppression becomes increasingly stringent as a function of time, ultimately depending on the exponential of the Hilbert space dimension, until extremely late times when the amount of suppression saturates. We also use our results to estimate the total number of rare fluctuations at large timescales. We find that the “Boltzmann brain” paradox is largely ameliorated in quantum many-body systems, in contrast with the classical setting.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2014

Spatially adaptive stochastic methods for fluid–structure interactions subject to thermal fluctuations in domains with complex geometries

We develop stochastic mixed finite element methods for spatially adaptive simulations of fluid–structure interactions when subject to thermal fluctuations. To account for thermal fluctuations, we introduce a discrete fluctuation–dissipation balance condition to develop compatible stochastic driving fields for our discretization. We perform analysis that shows our condition is sufficient to ensure results consistent with statistical mechanics. We show the Gibbs–Boltzmann distribution is invariant under the stochastic dynamics of the semi-discretization. To generate efficiently the required stochastic driving fields, we develop a Gibbs sampler based on iterative methods and multigrid to generate fields with O(N) computational complexity. Our stochastic methods provide an alternative to uniform discretizations on periodic domains that rely on Fast Fourier Transforms. To demonstrate in practice our stochastic computational methods, we investigate within channel geometries having internal obstacles and no-slip walls how the mobility/diffusivity of particles depends on location. Our methods extend the applicability of fluctuating hydrodynamic approaches by allowing for spatially adaptive resolution of the mechanics and for domains that have complex geometries relevant in many applications.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Anomaly Identification of Synchronized Voltage Waveform for Situational Awareness of Low Inertia Systems

Inverter-based resources (IBRs) such as photovoltaics (PVs), wind turbines, and battery energy storage systems (BESSs) are widely deployed in low-carbon power systems. However, these resources typically do not provide the inertia needed for grid stability, resulting in a low-inertia power system. IBRs and lack of inertia have been known to cause anomalies such as waveform distortions and wideband oscillations in power systems due to the limited inertia level, leading to increased generation trips and load shedding. Here, to achieve effective anomaly identification, this paper proposes a synchro-waveform-based algorithm utilizing real-time synchronized voltage waveform measurements from waveform measurement units (WMUs). In the proposed method, different physical characteristics, as well as statistical features, are extracted from synchronized voltage waveform measurements to filter anomalies. Then, the anomaly identification approach based on the random forest is developed and deployed into the FNET/GridEye system considering trade-offs among accuracy, computational burden, and deployment cost. Moreover, four WMUs are specially designed and deployed on Kauai Island to receive instantaneous synchronized voltage waveform measurements. To verify the performance of the proposed algorithm, different experiments are carried out with collected field test data. The result demonstrates that the performance of the proposed synchro-waveform-based anomaly categorization algorithm can accurately identify anomalies 95.35% of the time, which has comparable performance among benchmarking algorithms.

Situational awareness↗

DOE OSTI2020

Roadmap on quantum light spectroscopy

Conventional spectroscopy uses classical light to detect matter properties through the variation of its response with frequencies or time delays. Quantum light opens up new avenues for spectroscopy by utilizing parameters of the quantum state of light as novel control knobs and through the variation of photon statistics by coupling to matter. This Roadmap article focuses on using quantum light as a powerful sensing and spectroscopic tool to reveal novel information about complex molecules that is not accessible by classical light. It aims at bridging the quantum optics and spectroscopy communities which normally have opposite goals: manipulating complex light states with simple matter e.g. qubits versus studying complex molecules with simple classical light, respectively. Here, articles cover advances in the generation and manipulation of state-of-the-art quantum light sources along with applications to sensing, spectroscopy, imaging and interferometry.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2019

Solidarity of signal of measures for the liquid-gas phase transition in the statistical multifragmentation model

A systematic study of system size, N / Z asymmetry, and fragmenting volume effects as well as the Coulomb effect on experimental measures for the nuclear liquid-gas phase transition and the mechanism of phase transition are carried out in the framework of the statistical multifragmentation model (SMM). The measures examined here are the caloric curve, the specific heat capacity ( C v ), the multiplicity derivative (dM / dT), the moment parameters (M2 and γ2), the fluctuation of maximum fragment charge number (NVZ), the Fisher exponent (τ), and the Zipf's law parameter (ξ). A signal for the first-order phase transition for all the measures is observed. A stronger signal is observed in the system with smaller sizes or with more neutron rich or in smaller fragmenting volumes for the caloric curve, Cv, and dM/dT. The phase-transition temperatures are independent of the system size, N / Z asymmetry, fragmenting volume, and Coulomb force, which indicates these measures give a solid signal for the liquid-gas phase transition in SMM. On the other hand, the phase transition temperature and its behavior of the others slightly depend on the size, the N / Z asymmetry and the volume of the system. A negative heat capacity is observed for systems with A s ≥ 100 without the Coulomb force but disappears with the Coulomb. An instructive picture is given in the charge distributions for the observed first-order phase transition.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Thermodynamics of Restricted Boltzmann Machines and Related Learning Dynamics

We investigate the thermodynamic properties of a restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM), a simple energy-based generative model used in the context of unsupervised learning. Assuming the information content of this model to be mainly reflected by the spectral properties of its weight matrix W, we try to make a realistic analysis by averaging over an appropriate statistical ensemble of RBMs. First, a phase diagram is derived. Otherwise similar to that of the Sherrington–Kirkpatrick (SK) model with ferromagnetic couplings, the RBM’s phase diagram presents a ferromagnetic phase which may or may not be of compositional type depending on the kurtosis of the distribution of the components of the singular vectors of W. Subsequently, the learning dynamics of the RBM is studied in the thermodynamic limit. A “typical” learning trajectory is shown to solve an effective dynamical equation, based on the aforementioned ensemble average and explicitly involving order parameters obtained from the thermodynamic analysis. In particular, this let us show how the evolution of the dominant singular values of W, and thus of the unstable modes, is driven by the input data. At the beginning of the training, in which the RBM is found to operate in the linear regime, the unstable modes reflect the dominant covariance modes of the data. In the non-linear regime, instead, the selected modes interact and eventually impose a matching of the order parameters to their empirical counterparts estimated from the data. Finally, we illustrate our considerations by performing experiments on both artificial and real data, showing in particular how the RBM operates in the ferromagnetic compositional phase.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2019

Degradation Modeling and Reliability Assessment of Capacitors

The degradation of capacitors under accelerated stress conditions occur in a monotonic and non-linear fashion. Several efforts have been made to model the degradation behavior of capacitor considering either physics-of-failure models or statistical models and subsequently estimate its reliability and lifetime parameters. But most of these models fail to reflect the physical properties of the degradation path, which varies according to several intrinsic and extrinsic factors. These factors introduce random and temporal uncertainty among the population of capacitors. The gamma stochastic process can model both type of uncertainties among the population of capacitors. In this paper, we model the capacitor degradation by non-homogeneous gamma stochastic process in which both the model parameters (shape and scale) are dependent on stress variables. The model parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modelling and computational improvements to the simulation of single vector-boson plus jet processes for the ATLAS experiment

This paper presents updated Monte Carlo configurations used to model the production of single electroweak vector bosons (W, Z/γ$^{∗}$) in association with jets in proton-proton collisions for the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. Improvements pertaining to the electroweak input scheme, parton-shower splitting kernels and scale-setting scheme are shown for multi-jet merged configurations accurate to next-to-leading order in the strong and electroweak couplings. The computational resources required for these set-ups are assessed, and approximations are introduced resulting in a factor three reduction of the per-event CPU time without affecting the physics modelling performance. Continuous statistical enhancement techniques are introduced by ATLAS in order to populate low cross-section regions of phase space and are shown to match or exceed the generated effective luminosity. This, together with the lower per-event CPU time, results in a 50% reduction in the required computing resources compared to a legacy set-up previously used by the ATLAS collaboration. The set-ups described in this paper will be used for future ATLAS analyses and lay the foundation for the next generation of Monte Carlo predictions for single vector-boson plus jets production.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Long-term single-column model intercomparison of diurnal cycle of precipitation over midlatitude and tropical land

General Circulation Models (GCMs) have for decades exhibited difficulties in modelling the diurnal cycle of precipitation (DCP). This issue can be related to inappropriate representation of the processes controlling sub-diurnal phenomena like convection. In this study, 11 single-column versions of GCMs are used to investigate the interactions between convection and environmental conditions, processes that control nocturnal convections, and the transition from shallow to deep convection on a diurnal time-scale. Long-term simulations are performed over two continental land sites: the Southern Great Plains (SGP) in the USA for 12 summer months from 2004 to 2015 and the Manacapuru site at the central Amazon (MAO) in Brazil for two full years from 2014 to 2015. The analysis is done on two regimes: afternoon convective regime and nocturnal precipitation regime. Most models produce afternoon precipitation too early, likely due to the missing transition of shallow-to-deep convection in these models. At SGP, the unified convection schemes better simulate the onset time of precipitation. At MAO, models produce the heating peak in a much lower level compared with observation, indicating too shallow convection in the models. For nocturnal precipitation, models that produce most of nocturnal precipitation all allow convection to be triggered above the boundary layer. This indicates the importance of model capability to detect elevated convection for simulating nocturnal precipitation. Sensitivity studies indicate that (a) nudging environmental variables towards observations has a minor impact on DCP, (b) unified treatment of shallow and deep convection and the capability to capture mid-level convection can help models better capture DCP, and (c) the interactions of the atmosphere with other components in the climate system (e.g. land) are also important for DCP simulations in coupled models. Finally, these results provide long-term statistical insights on which physical processes are essential in climate models to simulate DCP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Law of Approach to Saturation in Mn–Zn Ferrite Nanoparticles

In this paper, the law of approach to saturation (LAS) was applied to a series of Mn–Zn ferrite nanoparticles with compositional formula Mn{sub 1−x}Zn{sub x}Fe{sub 2}O{sub 4} where x = 0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5 to study the dependence of magnetization, M, on the applied magnetic field, H. Using the statistical parameters, the field range was chosen. The dependence of magnetization on the applied field was studied based upon the output of the statistical parameters for the curve fitted using different forms of LAS, namely, M=M{sub s}[1−(a/H)−(b/(H{sup 2}))]+kH, M=M{sub s}[1−(a/H)−(b/(H{sup 2}))],M=M{sub s}[1−(b/(H{sup 2}))] and M=M{sub s}(1−(1/15)((H{sub A}{sup 2})/(H{sup (1/2)}(H{sup (3/2)}+H{sub R}{sup (3/2)}))))+kH. A critical examination on the output parameters resulted from fitting into different equations, indicates the dependency of magnetization on the applied field as a characteristic of the composition of Mn–Zn ferrites. The statistical parameters, along with physically meaningful fitted parameters, provide knowledge on dependency of magnetization of different compositions of Mn–Zn ferrites over different regions of applied field.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Equilibration and Diffusion for a Dynamical Lorentz Gas

We consider a model of a dynamical Lorentz gaz: a single particle is moving in ℝ{sup d} through an array of fixed and soft scatterers each possessing an internal degree of freedom coupled to the particle. Assuming the initial velocity is sufficiently high and modelling the parameters of the scatterers as random variables, we describe the evolution of the kinetic energy of the particle by a Markov chain for which each step corresponds to a collision. We show that the momentum distribution of the particle approaches a Maxwell–Boltzmann distribution with effective temperature T such that k{sub B}T corresponds to an average of the scatterers’ kinetic energy.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2018

Quantitative Boltzmann–Gibbs Principles via Orthogonal Polynomial Duality

We study fluctuation fields of orthogonal polynomials in the context of particle systems with duality. We thereby obtain a systematic orthogonal decomposition of the fluctuation fields of local functions, where the order of every term can be quantified. This implies a quantitative generalization of the Boltzmann–Gibbs principle. In the context of independent random walkers, we complete this program, including also fluctuation fields in non-stationary context (local equilibrium). For other interacting particle systems with duality such as the symmetric exclusion process, similar results can be obtained, under precise conditions on the n particle dynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian inverse uncertainty quantification of the physical model parameters for the spallation neutron source first target station

Not Available

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2014

Hydrodynamic equations for electrons in graphene obtained from the maximum entropy principle

The maximum entropy principle is applied to the formal derivation of isothermal, Euler-like equations for semiclassical fermions (electrons and holes) in graphene. After proving general mathematical properties of the equations so obtained, their asymptotic form corresponding to significant physical regimes is investigated. In particular, the diffusive regime, the Maxwell-Boltzmann regime (high temperature), the collimation regime and the degenerate gas limit (vanishing temperature) are considered.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗