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At least 487 records · Page 27

Numerically Testing Conceptual Models of the Utah FORGE Reservoir Using July 2023 Circulation Test Data

Over the past several years, many new data sets have become available regarding the characterization of the Utah FORGE reservoir. These include, but are not limited to, the stimulation of Well 16A, the drilling and completion of Well 16B, and interwell circulation confirmatory testing. As part of the characterization efforts, conceptual models of the reservoir are re-examined as new data become available. As part of the planning for FORGE activities, numerical models are often used to predict the reservoir response to the planned testing. Stochastic methods are often employed to bound uncertainty and allow for evaluation of comprehensive ranges of key reservoir parameters. For the most recent interwell circulation confirmatory testing (July 2023), a priori numerical model predictions did bound the observed behavior (Xinj et al., 2023), but key deviations from expected behavior prompted the FORGE team to reevaluate our conceptual model of the reservoir. In early October 2023, key members of the development, testing, and monitoring teams met for 2 days to review newly collected data and discuss ‘interesting’ or ‘key’ observations. From these discussions, 15 Key Observations were documented, with several significant ones being that the discrete fracture network developed from the 16A stimulation data may not be appropriate and that the early time pressure data obtained during the summer 2023 reservoir testing were best described using radial solutions. In July 2023, two campaigns of interwell confirmatory testing were conducted, the first set of tests occurred on July 4-5 and the second set on July 18-19. The second set of circulation tests conducted at the Utah FORGE site between the injection well 16A(78)-32 and production well 16B(78)-32 on July 18 and 19, 2023 are used to calibrate material properties in a thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) simulation of the discrete fracture network connecting the wells. The spatially and temporally varying reservoir properties are calibrated to match the time dependent pressure and production profiles from the circulation tests. In future work, this calibrated model will be coupled to the native state THM model of the FORGE reservoir to predict surface deformation and strains resulting from pumping schedules.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Numerically Testing Conceptual Models of the Utah FORGE Reservoir Using July 2024 Circulation Test Data

Over the past several years, many new data sets have become available regarding the characterization of the Utah FORGE reservoir. These include, but are not limited to, the stimulation of Well 16A, the drilling and completion of Well 16B, and interwell circulation confirmatory testing. As part of the characterization efforts, conceptual models of the reservoir are re-examined as new data become available. As part of the planning for FORGE activities, numerical models are often used to predict the reservoir response to the planned testing. Stochastic methods are often employed to bound uncertainty and allow for evaluation of comprehensive ranges of key reservoir parameters. For the most recent interwell circulation confirmatory testing (July 2023), a priori numerical model predictions did bound the observed behavior (Xinj et al., 2023), but key deviations from expected behavior prompted the FORGE team to reevaluate our conceptual model of the reservoir. In early October 2023, key members of the development, testing, and monitoring teams met for 2 days to review newly collected data and discuss ‘interesting’ or ‘key’ observations. From these discussions, 15 Key Observations were documented, with several significant ones being that the discrete fracture network developed from the 16A stimulation data may not be appropriate and that the early time pressure data obtained during the summer 2023 reservoir testing were best described using radial solutions. In July 2023, two campaigns of interwell confirmatory testing were conducted, the first set of tests occurred on July 4-5 and the second set on July 18-19. The second set of circulation tests conducted at the Utah FORGE site between the injection well 16A(78)-32 and production well 16B(78)-32 on July 18 and 19, 2023 are used to calibrate material properties in a thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) simulation of the discrete fracture network connecting the wells. The spatially and temporally varying reservoir properties are calibrated to match the time dependent pressure and production profiles from the circulation tests. In future work, this calibrated model will be coupled to the native state THM model of the FORGE reservoir to predict surface deformation and strains resulting from pumping schedules.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Sensitivity analysis of design parameters in RowWise borehole layout for ground heat exchangers

Ground source heat pump systems offer a promising pathway toward energy-efficient building heating and cooling. The performance and cost-effectiveness of these systems heavily depend on the design of the ground heat exchanger (GHE), particularly the spatial placement of boreholes used in large commercial buildings. Among various borefield layout strategies, the RowWise approach generates and optimizes borehole configurations within irregular polygonal land boundaries, providing land-use efficiency and installation flexibility. While multiple geometric design parameters constrain the RowWise layout, their influence on the system thermal performance and total drilling requirements remains unclear. Thus, this study presents a sensitivity analysis of key design parameters influencing the RowWise layout of vertical borehole GHEs, including the perimeter spacing ratio, borehole spacing, borehole field rotation angle, and borehole length. GHEDesigner and Ray Tune are employed to generate and assess different RowWise configurations. A series of parametric simulations was conducted to quantify the impact of each parameter on geometric distribution, economic cost, and computational speed. The results provide critical insights into the sensitivity and relative importance of different design parameters of RowWise method, offering practical guidance for designers aiming to optimize GHE layouts by balancing thermal efficiency, land constraints, and economic feasibility.

Xu, Dikai [Purdue University]↗

Development and benchmarking of transient nodal code SIMULATE5-K neutron kinetics solver

SIMULATE5-K is Studsvik's next generation best estimate transient code. The time dependent diffusion equation is solved with a nodal method consistent with that implemented in the licensed core design code SIMULATE5. Arbitrary number of neutron and delayed neutron precursor groups can be used. For the solution of the spatial problem, the coupling coefficients used to relate the node leakages are found by first converting the time dependent diffusion equation to a static diffusion equation with the use of flux and delayed neutron precursor dynamic frequencies. Once the static-like equations are obtained, the multi-group analytical nodal model is used to obtain the coupling coefficients, expressing the node leakage in terms of adjacent node average fluxes. The coupling coefficients are then inserted into the time dependent nodal balance equation. For the time integration, the time dependent neutron balance equation is solved with the frequency transformation method. The treatment of the temporal dependence yields a fixed source problem which can be solved utilizing the existing fixed-source methodology. The primary purpose of this paper is to describe the neutron kinetics methodology implemented in SIMULATE5-K. The accuracy of the method is demonstrated for a series of well-known, neutronic-only benchmark problems. (author)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Exploring Domain-Wall Pinning in Ferroelectrics via Automated High-Throughput Atomic Force Microscopy

Domain-wall dynamics in ferroelectric materials are strongly position-dependent, since each polar interface is locked into a unique local microstructure. This necessitates spatially resolved studies of wall pinning using scanning-probe microscopy techniques. The pinning centers and pre-existing domain walls are usually sparse within the image plane, precluding the use of dense hyperspectral imaging modes and requiring time-consuming human experimentation. Here, a large-area epitaxial PbTiO 3 film on cubic KTaO 3 was investigated to quantify the electric-field-driven dynamics of the polar–strain domain structures using ML-controlled automated piezoresponse force microscopy. Analysis of 1500 switching events reveals that domain-wall displacement depends not only on field parameters but also on the local ferroelectric–ferroelastic configuration. For example, twin boundaries in polydomains regions, like a 1 – /c+ ∥ a 2 – /c – , stay pinned up to a certain level of bias magnitude and change only marginally as the bias increases from 20 to 30 V, whereas single-variant boundaries, like the a 2 + /c + ∥ a 2 – /c – stack, are already activated at 20 V. These statistics on the possible ferroelectric and ferroelastic wall orientations, together with the automated high-throughput AFM workflow, can be distilled into a predictive map that links domain configurations to pulse parameters. Here, this microstructure-specific rule set forms the foundation for the design of ferroelectric memories.

automated scanning probe microscopy↗

Sensitivities of Large Eddy Simulations of Aerosol Plume Transport and Cloud Response

Abstract Cloud responses to surface‐based sources of aerosol perturbation partially depend on how turbulent transport of the aerosol to cloud base affects the spatial and temporal distribution of aerosol. Here, scenarios of plume injection below a marine stratocumulus cloud are modeled using large eddy simulations coupled to a prognostic bulk aerosol and cloud microphysics scheme. Both passive plumes, consisting of an inert tracer, and active plumes are investigated, where the latter are representative of saltwater droplet plumes such as have been proposed for marine cloud brightening. Passive plume scenarios show higher in‐plume cloud brightness (relative to out‐of‐plume) due to the predominant transport of the passive plume tracer from the near‐surface to the cloud layer within updrafts. These updrafts rise into brighter areas within the cloud deck, even in the absence of an aerosol perturbation associated with an active plume. Comparing albedo at in‐plume to out‐of‐plume locations associates the inert plume with the brightest cloud locations, without any causal effect of the plume on the cloud. Numerical sensitivities are first assessed to establish a suitable model configuration. Then sensitivity to particle injection rate is investigated. Trade‐offs are identified between the number of injected particles and the suppressive effect of droplet evaporation on plume loft and spread. Furthermore, as the near‐field in‐plume brightening effect does not depend significantly on injection rate given a suitable definition of perturbed versus unperturbed regions of the flow, plume area is a key controlling factor on the overall cloud brightening effect of an aerosol perturbation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Oil-Pressure Based Apparatus for In-Situ High-Energy Synchrotron X-Ray Diffraction Studies During Biaxial Deformation

Background: Understanding biaxial loading response at the microstructural level is crucial in helping better design sheet manufacturing processes and calibrate/validate material deformation models. Objective: The objective of this work was to develop a low-cost testing apparatus to probe, with sufficient spatial resolution, the micro-mechanical response of a sheet material in-situ under biaxial loading conditions. Methods: The testing apparatus fabricated as a part of this study operates in a similar fashion to a standard bulge test and uses oil pressure to generate biaxial loading conditions. This biaxial testing apparatus was operated within a synchrotron beamline to characterize the mechanical response of a flash-processed steel sheet using in-situ high-energy X-ray diffraction (XRD) measurements. Further, the GSAS-II package was utilized to develop a workflow for the analysis of the large volume of diffraction data acquired. The workflow was then used to extract the peak position, width, and integrated intensity of the XRD peaks corresponding to the major body-centered cubic phase. Results: The equi-biaxial nature of the loading in the measured area was independently corroborated using experimental (XRD) and simulation (finite element analysis) methods. Furthermore, we discuss the evolution of elastic strain in the major body-centered cubic phase as a function of applied oil pressure and location on the steel sheet. Conclusions: A key advantage of the biaxial apparatus fabricated in this synchrotron study is demonstrated using the results obtained for the flash-processed steel sheet – i.e., mapping the lattice plane-dependent response to biaxial loading for a relatively large sample area in a spatially resolved manner.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Bragg edge imaging (BEI) of B12W and M8N socket sections of the Arecibo telescope

From neutron user principal investigator: We kindly request the public release of three neutron imaging datasets through ONCat. All datasets were collected from two forensic specimens, B12W and M8N, sectioned from zinc-filled steel-wire sockets recovered from the collapsed Arecibo Telescope. The dataset titled “Neutron radiographs of B12W and M8N socket sections of the Arecibo telescope” contains normalized two-dimensional (2D) neutron radiographs of the specimens, showing the geometry and spatial distribution of the steel wires embedded within the zinc matrix, as well as internal features such as voids and cracks. The dataset titled “Neutron computed tomography of B12W and M8N socket sections of the Arecibo telescope” contains normalized 2D neutron projection images acquired over a range of specimen rotation angles for one selected region of each specimen. These projection images were used to reconstruct three-dimensional (3D) tomographic volumes that reveal the embedded-wire geometry and internal defects. The dataset titled “Bragg edge imaging (BEI) of B12W and M8N socket sections of the Arecibo telescope” contains six time-of-flight (TOF) neutron imaging datasets, three from each specimen, acquired at regions of interest selected based on the radiographs. The spatially resolved 2D TOF images show the zinc matrix and embedded steel wires, and the wavelength-dependent neutron transmission data were used to characterize crystallographic texture within the zinc. All components and their condition are in the public domain as they are the property of the National Science Foundation (NSF). The neutron imaging data, part geometries, and detailed forensic information have been widely published in the Arecibo Telescope Collapse Forensic Report by Thornton Tomasetti Engineers and others (NASA report and NASEM report).

Bilheux, Hassina↗

Dryness controls temperature-optimized gross primary productivity across vegetation types

Temperature response of gross primary productivity (GPP) is a well-known property of ecosystem, but GPP at the optimum temperature (GPP_T opt ) has not been fully discussed. Our understanding of how GPP_T opt responds to warming and water availability is highly limited. Here, in this study, we analyzed data at 326 globally distributed eddy covariance sites (79°N-37°S), to identify controlling factors of GPP_T opt . Although GPP_T opt was significantly influenced by soil moisture, global solar radiation, mean annual temperature, and vapor pressure deficit in a non-linear pattern (R 2 = 0.47), the direction and magnitude of these climate variables’ effects on GPP_T opt depend on the dryness index (DI), a ratio of potential evapotranspiration to precipitation. The spatial pattern showed that soil moisture did not affect GPP_T opt across energy-limited sites with DI < 1 while dominated GPP_T opt across water-limited sites with DI >1. The temporal pattern showed that GPP_T opt was lowered by warming or low precipitation in water-limited sites while energy-limited sites tended to maintain a stable GPP_T opt regardless of changes in air temperature. Vegetation types in humid climates tended to have higher GPP_T opt and were more likely to benefit from a warmer climate since it was not restricted by water conditions. This study highlights that the response of GPP_T opt to global warming depends on the dryness conditions, which explains the nonlinear control of water and temperature over GPP_T opt . Our finding is essential to realistic prediction of terrestrial carbon uptake under future climate and vegetation conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Complete spectroscopy in the attosecond regime

Harnessing light waveforms at attosecond time scales provides information of the structure and dynamics of matter on it's natural time scales. For this reason attosecond metrology has been at the forefront of the optical sciences for more than a decade, and it represents the latest time-domain frontier of the quantum world. Attosecond light pulses are commonly generated using higher-order harmonic generation (HHG) , a process capable of generating XUV coherent pulses. In addition to generate attosecond pulses, HHG can be used to study the structure and dynamics of atoms and molecules by analyzing the spectral content of the XUV pulses. This approach is known as HHG spectroscopy and it provides a coherent, time-dependent approach to study structure and dynamics in the quantum world. In this proposal we will generate harmonics from two optical foci produced by a system of a two-dimensional spatial light modulator (SLM) and a lens. In the far eld the train of attosecond pulses will interfere creating harmonic-dependent fringes. The position of such fringes is a direct measurement of the relative phase between the two foci and they also carry information about the quantum state of the target atom or molecule. Therefore, by measuring the amplitude and relative phase of the emitted harmonics we will have access to both, the amplitude and phase of the dipole moments of the studied target. Because the two beams are completely indistinguishable from each other up to a few millimeters from the focus, both driving pulses share the exact beam path. So far we have measured a jitter of 700 zeptoseconds with a 12.5 attosecond resolution in the delay control of the two foci. These two time scales represent some of the best time controls ever achieved to date.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Inter-ELM pedestal turbulence dynamics dependence on q 95 and temperature gradient

A series of dedicated experiments from DIII-D tokamak provide spatially and temporally resolved measurements of electron density and temperature, and multiscale and multichannel fluctuations over a wide range of conditions. Measurements of long wavelength density fluctuations in the type-I ELMing H-mode pedestal routinely revealed a coexistence of multiple instabilities that exhibit dramatic different dynamic behaviors as q 95 and temperature gradient are varied, apparently responsible for limiting pedestal temperature profiles. Two distinct frequency bands of density fluctuations are modulated with ELM cycle with frequency above 200kHz propagating in the electron diamagnetic direction in the lab frame (electron mode) and below 200kHz propagating in the ion diamagnetic direction (ion mode). The electron mode amplitude peaks near the electron temperature gradient region and increases with q 95 which seems to be correlated with the increased χ e at higher q 95 , similar to the characteristics expected for Micro-tearing Mode (MTM). At higher q 95 , during the inter-ELM period, the ion mode decays at later phase of the ELM cycle. Consistently, the poloidal correlation length of the ion mode is also found to reduce which suggests the possible E×B flow shear suppression of ion mode at later phase of the ELM cycle as the Er well recovers. In contrast, the electron mode grows during the ELM cycle and reaches saturation at around 50-60% of ELM period. Linear gyrokinetic simulations find the MTMs as the most unstable mode in the pedestal electron temperature gradient region. The higher q 95 and lower magnetic shear destabilize MTMs. These observations provide key insights of the underlying physics of multifield properties and rich dataset of experimental 'fingerprints' that enable new tests of the theoretical pedestal models and lead to developing a predictive model for pedestal formation on ITER and future burning plasma experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

How much information on precipitation is contained in satellite infrared imagery?

Satellite infrared (IR) brightness temperature providing information on the characteristics of cloud tops is one of the primary input data used for estimating precipitation from satellites. Thus, the natural questions to ask are: Does IR imagery contain more information about precipitation in some regions more than others? What are the factors that lead to such differences? Should we expect the amount of information provided by IR imagery to change with respect to temporal or spatial aggregation? Comprehensive analysis of the accuracy of satellite-based precipitation estimates obtained from any given algorithm may provide qualitative answers to the above questions. However, such an approach only offers conclusions within the limited context of the algorithm used to obtain precipitation estimates; that is, patterns caused by the inherent information content of IR imagery are inextricable from those induced by assumptions embedded in the precipitation estimation algorithm. Here, we address the abovementioned questions from a different perspective using an information-theoretic measure, free of structural assumptions and general to a wide range of relationships, to characterize the average and seasonal dependence between IR imagery provided by satellite sensors in the spectral range (10.7–11.5 μm) and precipitation rates in the contiguous United States (CONUS) across distinct temporal and spatial scales. We analyze a total of more than 1.3 billion pairs of IR and precipitation observations over CONUS, and we observe interesting patterns. First, we show that there is a strong inverse relationship (ρ = - 0.73) between the information content of IR data and the number of no-rain observations; however, its robustness varies regionally and seasonally with less significant correlation during the warm season. Second, we demonstrate that the intuitive relationship of increasing dependence between IR and precipitation as a result of temporal or spatial aggregation exhibits a diminishing returns behavior. For instance, temporal aggregation from 1 to 3 h increases the dependence approximately 7 times as much as temporal aggregation from 12 to 24 h. Furthermore, we quantitatively examine and re-confirm several statements previously reported in the literature such as the strong association between IR and precipitation in convective storms and the low association in orographic rainfall. Finally, we conclude by illustrating the potential of the analysis in diagnosis of operational algorithms for estimating precipitation from IR brightness temperature. The findings of this study pinpoint spatial domains and time scales at which IR is not an adequate proxy for estimating precipitation. Thus, they can potentially guide the development of operational algorithms that utilize satellite Infrared imagery for estimating, downscaling and data fusion of precipitation. Finally, the analysis presented here opens up the possibility of developing new methodologies for diagnosis of satellite-based precipitation estimation algorithms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Effect of an electric field on liquid helium scintillation produced by fast electrons

The dependence on applied electric field (0–40 kV/cm) of the scintillation light produced by fast electrons and α particles stopped in liquid helium in the temperature range of 0.44 K to 3.12 K is reported. For both types of particles, the reduction in the intensity of the scintillation signal due to the applied field exhibits an apparent temperature dependence. Using an approximate solution of the Debye-Smoluchowski equation, we show that the apparent temperature dependence for electrons can be explained by the time required for geminate pairs to recombine relative to the detector signal integration time. This finding indicates that the spatial distribution of secondary electrons with respect to their geminate partners possesses a heavy, non-Gaussian tail at larger separations and has a dependence on the energy of the primary ionization electron. Here, we discuss the potential application of this result to pulse shape analysis for particle detection and discrimination.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Band structure dependent electronic localization in macroscopic films of single-chirality single-wall carbon nanotubes

Significant understanding has been achieved over the last few decades regarding chirality-dependent properties of single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs), primarily through single-tube studies. However, macroscopic manifestations of chirality dependence have been limited, especially in electronic transport, despite the fact that such distinct behaviors are needed for many applications of SWCNT-based devices. In addition, developing reliable transport theory is challenging since a description of localization phenomena in an assembly of nanoobjects requires precise knowledge of disorder on multiple spatial scales, particularly if the ensemble is heterogeneous. Here, we report an observation of pronounced chirality-dependent electronic localization in temperature and magnetic field dependent conductivity measurements on macroscopic films of single-chirality SWCNTs. The samples included large-gap semiconducting (6,5) and (10,3) films, narrow-gap semiconducting (7,4) and (8,5) films, and armchair metallic (6,6) films. Experimental data and theoretical calculations revealed Mott variable-range-hopping dominated transport in all samples, while localization lengths fall into three distinct categories depending on their band gaps. Armchair films have the largest localization length. Here our detailed analyses on electronic transport properties of single-chirality SWCNT films provide significant new insight into electronic transport in ensembles of nanoobjects, offering foundations for designing and deploying macroscopic SWCNT solid-state devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra: Modeling Archive

This dataset is a model archive of the paper Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra (in prep) to support a modeling study investigating how projected increases in Arctic temperature and precipitation will jointly influence hydrologic conditions in ice-rich tundra landscapes. With this dataset, this study is to address the research question: Will Arctic tundra landscapes become wetter or drier with increasing precipitation and temperature in the future when thaw-induced ground subsidence and associated microtopographic evolution are represented? The simulations focus on ice-wedge polygon tundra, a widespread form of ice-rich permafrost terrain that is highly sensitive to thaw-driven landscape change. This dataset contains model input and output data for four study watersheds in Alaska: Anaktuvuk, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Brooks Foothills, and Prudhoe Bay. Simulations were performed using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS, v1.5), a physics-rich integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model. For each watershed, ten modeling cases were performed representing two landscape evolution conditions (with subsidence and without subsidence) combined with five climate forcing scenarios derived from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5, SSP5 with precipitation trend, SSP2, SSP2 with precipitation trend, and SSP2 with double precipitation trend). Particularly, for each watershed under the forcing SSP2 with precipitation trend, there are two additional simulations considering spatially heterogeneous subsidence distributions: one assumes randomly distributed scaling and the other includes elevation dependent distribution scaling. These simulations span 1980–2099 and include spin-up runs (1980–2009) followed by transient projections (2010–2099). To facilitate reproducibility of simulations, all datasets are organized by watershed. For each study watershed, the dataset contains: (1) Pre-partitioned mesh files for 32-core modeling (.par.32.XX), located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh/basin; and also a non-partitioned mesh file (.exo) located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh; (2) Climate forcings corresponding to the five SSP scenarios (.h5), located in EACH_WATERSHED/data; (3) Final states (.h5) from column spin-up modeling used to initialize historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009, located in EACH_WATERSHED/PreSpinupHistorical; (4) Final states (.h5) of historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009 used to initialize projection runs, located in EACH_WATERSHED/Spinup_daymetERA5; (5) ATS modeling input files (.xml), located in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/inputfiles; (6) ATS modeling output files (.dat), located in in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/combined_obs; (7) For the Brooks Foothills watershed, additional spatial model outputs are provided (.h5) for selected years (2033 and 2093) used to generate spatial figures in this study, located in Brooksfoothills/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/results-WITH/WITHOUT_SUBSIDENCE-year2033/2093. All data files with suffix .h5 can be accessible through Python h5py, and all data files with suffix of .dat can be imported by Python pandas. Mesh file with .exo can be visualized through Paraview or read by Python netCDF. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION↗