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At least 487 records · Page 27

The DECADE cosmic shear project III: validation of analysis pipeline using spatially inhomogeneous data

We present the pipeline for the cosmic shear analysis of the Dark Energy Camera All Data Everywhere (DECADE) weak lensing dataset: a catalog consisting of 107 million galaxies observed by the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) in the northern Galactic cap. The catalog derives from a large number of disparate observing programs and is therefore more inhomogeneous across the sky compared to existing lensing surveys. First, we use simulated data-vectors to show the sensitivity of our constraints to different analysis choices in our inference pipeline, including sensitivity to residual systematics. Next we use simulations to validate our covariance modeling for inhomogeneous datasets. Finally, we show that our choices in the end-to-end cosmic shear pipeline are robust against inhomogeneities in the survey, by extracting relative shifts in the cosmology constraints across different subsets of the footprint/catalog and showing they are all consistent within 1σ to 2σ. This is done for forty-six subsets of the data and is carried out in a fully consistent manner: for each subset of the data, we re-derive the photometric redshift estimates, shear calibrations, survey transfer functions, the data vector, measurement covariance, and finally, the cosmological constraints. Our results show that existing analysis methods for weak lensing cosmology can be fairly resilient towards inhomogeneous datasets. This also motivates exploring a wider range of image data for pursuing such cosmological constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Disinfection susceptibility of waterborne pseudomonads and Legionellae under simulated space vehicle conditions

The sensitivity of waterborne bacteria from iodinated systems to iodine is examined with particular attention to the recovery of the organisms. The use of iodine as a disinfectant for space-vehicle water is described, and references are made to studies of iodine sensitivity and the relationship between growth rate and iodine sensitivity. Growth following iodination is discussed, and bacterial responses to nutrient restriction are examined for both P aeruginosa and Legionella pneumophila. The low level of organic nutrients in spacecraft water allows the selection for bacteria that are less sensitive to halogens. The formation of biofilms within the water-treatment system enhances bacterial resistance to iodine, and in the case of high-quality water it is shown that sublethal doses of iodine can stimulate bacterial growth. Water treatment should therefore be based on antecedent growth conditions, nutrient limitation, biofilm formation, and ambient selective pressures.

Mcfeters, Gordon A.↗

Large-Eddy Simulations of Marine Boundary-Layer Clouds Associated With Cold Air Outbreaks During the Activate Campaign – Part 1: Case Setup and Sensitivities to Large-Scale Forcings

Large-eddy simulation (LES) is able to capture key boundary-layer (BL) turbulence and cloud processes. Yet, large-scale forcing and surface turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat are often poorly prescribed for LES simulations. We derive these quantities from measurements and reanalysis obtained for two cold air outbreak (CAO) events during Phase I of the Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) in February-March 2020. We study the two contrasting CAO cases by performing LES and test the sensitivity of BL structure and clouds to large-scale forcings and turbulent heat fluxes. Profiles of atmospheric state and large-scale divergence and surface turbulent heat fluxes obtained from the reanalysis data ERA5 agree reasonablywell with those derived fromACTIVATE field measurements for both cases at the sampling time and location. Therefore, we adopt the time evolving heat fluxes, wind and advective tendencies profiles from ERA5 reanalysis data to drive the LES.We find that large-scale thermodynamic advective tendencies and wind relaxations are important for the LES to capture the evolving observed BL meteorological states characterized by the hourly ERA5 reanalysis data and validated by the observations. We show that the divergence (or vertical velocity) is important in regulating the BL growth driven by surface heat fluxes in LES simulations. The evolution of liquid water path is largely affected by the evolution of surface heat fluxes. The liquid water path imulated in LES agrees reasonably well with the ACTIVATE measurements. This study paves the path to investigate aerosol-cloud-meteorology interactions using LES informed and evaluated by ACTIVATE field measurements.

Large-eddy simulation↗

Irrigation Water Demand Sensitivity to Climate Variability across the Contiguous United States

Climate variability is an important driver of irrigation water use in many regions. Efforts to anticipate climate change impacts on future water availability can benefit from understanding how irrigation water demand has responded to these drivers to date. Here we apply satellite derived data, meteorological reanalysis, an advanced land surface model, and available state level reports to quantify irrigation demand sensitivities to temperature and precipitation across the Contiguous United States, for the period of 2002-2017. As expected, strong negative correlations are found between precipitation and irrigation withdrawals, both simulated and reported. Temperature sensitivities, however, vary by region and season, as do the interactive effects of temperature and precipitation on irrigation. Climate-induced irrigation variability is largest in transitional climate zones. These transitional zones are generally separate from the regions where rates of irrigation withdrawals are greatest, such that climate-induced variability in irrigation demand represents a water resource consideration that is distinct from chronic over pumping.

Wanshu Nie↗

Optimal PMU design based on sampling model and sensitivity analysis

The precise measurements of the synchrophasor and frequency from phasor measurement units (PMUs) are widely used in power grid applications. With the improvement of the technique, applications always require stable dynamic performance and higher accuracy for the synchrophasor and frequency measurements, which is challenging for PMU development. To evaluate the contribution of PMU hardware to measurement accuracy, this paper proposes a general-purpose sampling model to analyze the measurement error. In the proposed sampling model, a strict mathematical derivation is derived, where its error is purely determined by the parameters of the PMU hardware. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by three methods, including mathematical analysis, computer simulation, and variance-based sensitivity analysis. Through the sensitivity analysis, this paper establishes the systematic formulation and the inclusion of synchrophasor, frequency, and ROCOF. Experimental results based on the real-world testbench involving distribution-level PMUs match the mathematical analysis conclusion, which verifies the correctness of the general-purpose sampling model. Furthermore, a strategy for the optimal PMU design is proposed, which could guide PMU design in the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Large-Eddy Simulations of Marine Boundary Layer Clouds Associated with Cold-Air Outbreaks during the ACTIVATE Campaign. Part I: Case Setup and Sensitivities to Large-Scale Forcings

Large-eddy simulation (LES) is able to capture key boundary layer (BL) turbulence and cloud processes. Yet, large-scale forcing and surface turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat are often poorly prescribed for LESs. We derive these quantities from measurements and reanalysis obtained for two cold-air outbreak (CAO) events during Phase I of the Aerosol Cloud Meteorology Interactions over the Western Atlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) in February–March 2020. We study the two contrasting CAO cases by performing LES and test the sensitivity of BL structure and clouds to large-scale forcings and turbulent heat fluxes. Profiles of atmospheric state and large-scale divergence and surface turbulent heat fluxes obtained from ERA5 data agree reasonably well with those derived from ACTIVATE field measurements for both cases at the sampling time and location. Therefore, we adopt the time-evolving heat fluxes, wind, and advective tendencies profiles from ERA5 data to drive the LES. We find that large-scale thermodynamic advective tendencies and wind relaxations are important for the LES to capture the evolving observed BL meteorological states characterized by the hourly ERA5 data and validated by the observations. We show that the divergence (or vertical velocity) is important in regulating the BL growth driven by surface heat fluxes in LESs. The evolution of liquid water path is largely affected by the evolution of surface heat fluxes. The liquid water path simulated in LES agrees reasonably well with the ACTIVATE measurements. This study paves the path to investigate aerosol–cloud–meteorology interactions using LES informed and evaluated by ACTIVATE field measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Center for Tokamak Transients Simulations

The major goals for the Center for Tokamak Transients Simulations (CTTS) were to develop detailed numerical simulations of disruptive transients in tokamak experiments and to use them in theoretical studies of the thermal-quench (TQ) and current-quench (CQ) phases of disruption. The University of Wisconsin-Madison component of CTTS contributed relevant development for the NIMROD code (https://nimrodteam.org) and applied it to disruptions that involve global vertical displacement. Code-development contributions include boundary conditions that represent sheath effects which occur when tokamak plasma is in contact with the surrounding vessel wall during vertical displacement events (VDEs). We also implemented a reduced model of energetic runaway electrons (REs) to simulate the effect of these energetic electrons on the CQ phase of tokamak disruptions. Our computations of VDEs include 2D and 3D verification through benchmarks with two other widely used macroscale plasma simulation codes, M3D-C1 and JOREK. Over nonlinear evolution to the final termination of plasma current, the 2D simulation results on magnetic axis location, toroidal current, and halo current track each other well. With the 3D benchmark computation, all three codes found the same qualitative behavior of the asymmetric instabilities having increasing growth rate after contact with the wall, followed by nonlinear excitation of other toroidal harmonics. Our NIMROD computations for an idealized configuration show agreement with an analytical assessment by V. D. Pustovitov [Nucl. Fusion 55, 113032 (2015)] that the plasma and non-ideal wall remain in force-balance such that net forces only result from magnetic stresses over the outer surface of the wall. Our study of the influence of boundary conditions on VDEs shows that extended-MHD simulations of VDEs are sensitive to electron energy transport to the wall and that boundary conditions on flow are only significant to the extent that they influence the electron energy transport. Resistive-MHD NIMROD simulations of the tokamak discharges in the Madison Symmetric Torus show that magnetic perturbations of poloidal wavenumber m=3 lead to chaotic magnetic topology over the edge region, which helps deconfine energetic electrons. A second area of RE study shows that the coupled resistive MHD/reduced RE model reproduces the resistive-hose particle-beam instability. With respect to educational opportunities, this effort involved and supported four graduate students at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and one postdoctoral associate. The results of this study have been disseminated through journal publications, conference presentations, technical reports, and PhD dissertations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Deployment of a Pressure Sensitive Paint System for Measuring Global Surface Pressures on Rotorcraft Blades in Simulated Forward Flight: Preliminary PSP Results from Test 581 in the 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel

This report will present details of a Pressure Sensitive Paint (PSP) system for measuring global surface pressures on the tips of rotorcraft blades in simulated forward flight at the 14- x 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel. The system was designed to use a pulsed laser as an excitation source and PSP data was collected using the lifetime-based approach. With the higher intensity of the laser, this allowed PSP images to be acquired during a single laser pulse, resulting in the collection of crisp images that can be used to determine blade pressure at a specific instant in time. This is extremely important in rotorcraft applications as the blades experience dramatically different flow fields depending on their position in the rotor disk. Testing of the system was performed using the U.S. Army General Rotor Model System equipped with four identical blades. Two of the blades were instrumented with pressure transducers to allow for comparison of the results obtained from the PSP. This report will also detail possible improvements to the system.

Watkins, Anthony Neal↗

Propagating neutronic uncertainties for FFTF LOFWOS Test #13

The safety evaluation conducted for licensing a Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) may require modeling transients with best-estimate calculation tools that must first be validated against real-world measurements. To provide the community with a valuable benchmarking opportunity for validating SFR analysis tools and methods, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) initiated a coordinated research project (CRP) in 2018 for the analysis of the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) Loss of Flow Without Scram (LOFWOS) Test #13. The impact of nuclear data uncertainties on neutronics parameters was previously investigated based on the COMMARA-2.0 covariance matrix. Since the transient simulation results are very sensitive to certain reactivity coefficients, it was decided to employ rigorous uncertainty propagation methods to quantify the impact of nuclear data uncertainties on the best-estimate predication of FFTF LOFWOS Test #13. The DAKOTA code is used to propagate neutronic uncertainties through SAS4A/SASSYS-1 transient simulations, while taking into account spatial and reaction-wise correlations within these uncertainties. This study shows that the remaining discrepancies observed between the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) best-estimate results and the experimental measurements can be partly explained by the uncertainty associated with Gas Expansion Module (GEM) worth, which contributes the majority of the overall nuclear data uncertainty on the output from the FFTF LOFWOS Test #13 transient simulation. This study also confirmed the importance of including spatial and reaction-wise correlations of nuclear data uncertainties on feedback coefficients in the uncertainty propagation to avoid under-estimating their impact during the transient simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Phase-field modeling of aging-induced microstructure evolution in pentaerythritol tetranitrate thin films and ramifications for shock initiation

Aging of energetic materials may change performance and affect their safety and reliability, but the relationship between microstructure changes induced by aging and consequent performance changes has not been fully established. This work presents results of phase-field method simulations used to model microstructure evolution of vapor-deposited pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) thin films. Simulated aging is shown to induce grain coarsening and substantial changes of the configuration of porosity in the film: Specifically, we show that porosity tends to concentrate in large pores to a greater degree in aged films, a state that is arrived at by closure or consolidation of small pores. To evaluate the performance of the as-deposited and aged films, we perform two-dimensional hydrocode flyer-film impact simulations that incorporate the phase-field output microstructures directly, permitting us to connect features therein to changes in reactivity, a key metric of energy output for shock initiation. The results demonstrate that declining sensitivity obtained for the simulated aged films can be correlated with the loss of fine-structured pores relatively early in the aging process, while long-term microstructure evolution that gradually alters the shape of large, branching pores is less impactful. Finally, we discuss commonalities and discrepancies between our simulation results and high-throughput initiation experiments on shock initiation of aged PETN thin films.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Numerical simulation of precipitation induced downbursts

Using the Terminal Area Simulation System (TASS), numerical simulations of downburst structure and sensitivity, based on vertical profiles of environmental temperature, humidity and wind velocity observed during the June and August 1982 JAWS project, are presented. Two-dimensional axisymmetric simulations examining downburst evolution, structure and sensitivity, assume a 40-m constant grid size on a 10-km diameter 5-km deep cylindrical domain. The three-dimensional experiment, examining the effects of vertical wind shear and other asymmetrical aspects of the downpour, assumed a 500-m constant horizontal grid size and a 35 x 35 x 18.5-km area. In the downburst primary structure depicted, outflow speeds were found to be sensitive to environmental temperature and humidity, as well as to precipitation radius and intensity. A vortex ring was found to propagate downwards, and maximum outflow winds occur when the vortex ring first reaches the surface.

Proctor, F. H.↗

Numerical Simulations of TRMM LBA, TOGA, COARE, GATE, ARM and PRESTORM Convective Systems: Sensitivity tests on Microphysical Processes

The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was utilized to examine the behavior and response of simulated deep tropical cloud systems that occurred over the west Pacific warm pool region, the Atlantic ocean and the central United States. The periods chosen for simulation were convectively active periods during TOGA-COARE (February 22 1993, December 11-17, 1992; December 19-28, February 9-13, 1993), GATE (September 4, 1974), LBA (January 26 and February 23, 1998), ARM (1997 IOP) and PRESTORM (June 11, 1985). We will examine differences in the microphysics for both warm rain and ice processes (evaporation /sublimation and condensation/ deposition), Q1 (Temperature), Q2 (Water vapor) and Q3 (momentum both U and V) budgets for these three convective events from different large-scale environments. The contribution of stratiform precipitation and its relationship to the vertical shear of the large-scale horizontal wind will also be examined. New improvements to the GCE model (i.e., microphysics: 4ICE two moments and 3ICE one moment; advection schemes) as well as their sensitivity to the model results will be discussed. Preliminary results indicated that various microphysical schemes could have a major impact on stratiform formation as well as the size of convective systems. However, they do not change the major characteristics of the convective systems, such as: arc shape, strong rotational circulation on both ends of system, heavy precipitation along the leading edge of systems.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Sensitivity of Regional WRF‐Chem Air Quality and Weather Simulations to Biomass‐Burning Emission Data Sets: A Case Study of the Impact of Canadian Wildfire on the US°

This study focuses on the period from June 26 to 29, 2023, when record‐breaking Canadian wildfires severely impacted air quality in the Midwest United States. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) and four biomass‐burning data sets (Fire Inventory from NCAR version 1, Fire Inventory from NCAR version 2.5, Quick Fire Emissions Data set [QFED], and Regional ABI‐VIIRS Emission), we analyzed aerosol transport from Canada to the US and assessed the model's accuracy in predicting PM 2.5 , O 3 , CO and aerosol weather feedback. Model simulations were compared with ground‐based and remote sensing observations as well as field measurements from the Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) project. Our findings show that the movement of a low‐pressure system from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic, combined with the high‐pressure system over the Atlantic, caused the transport of aerosols from Canadian wildfires to the US. Results show WRF‐Chem significantly underestimated key atmospheric components: aerosol optical depth (AOD) by over 50%, PM 2.5 by 65%–90% and peak O 3 concentrations by 50%–55% across four biomass burning data sets. Additionally, CO and NO 2 concentrations were underpredicted. The substantial underestimation of PM 2.5 led to an overestimation of temperature by up to 3.6 °C primarily due to excessive downward shortwave radiation, which resulted from the underestimation of direct aerosol effects and an increase in sensible heat flux. Among the biomass‐burning data sets, QFED produced the most accurate AOD and PM 2.5 predictions due to improved wildfire emission estimates, leading to a 1.0 to 1.5 °C reduction in temperature overestimation during the daytime. These findings underscore the need for improving wildfire emission estimates for trace gases and aerosols to enhance air quality and weather feedback predictions.

WRF-chem model↗

Sensitivity Studies, Gap Analysis, and Benchmark Experiment Optimization for Reactor Physics and Criticality Safety Applications

Many new reactor designs, such as advanced reactors and micro reactors, have materials that lack nuclear data validation. This is also true for many other applications in criticality safety and global security. Both differential and integral experiments are needed to validate cross-section data. Without this, a user cannot have confidence in the predicted results of a radiation-transport code. This work describes an approach called ARCHIMEDES (Application Relevant Critical/Subcritical HEU/Pu-based Integral Measurements for Enhancing Data and Evaluating Sensitivities) to design new criticality experiments that have similar k eff cross-section sensitivities to an application of interest. This process involves simulations to generate cross-section sensitivities to a parameter of interest (such as k eff ), a gap analysis to determine which existing benchmarks are most similar to the application, and an experiment optimization. Recently, there has been a great deal of interest in the reactor physics community on advanced reactors, micro reactors, and accelerator driven systems (ADS). This work will apply the described method to specific examples in this area. The focus of this work will be on the sensitivity study and gap analysis, while future work will include experiment design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Test of Sensitivity to Convective Transport in a Global Atmospheric CO2 Simulation

Two approximations to convective transport have been implemented in an offline chemistry transport model (CTM) to explore the impact on calculated atmospheric CO2 distributions. GlobalCO2 in the year 2000 is simulated using theCTM driven by assimilated meteorological fields from the NASA s Goddard Earth Observation System Data Assimilation System, Version 4 (GEOS-4). The model simulates atmospheric CO2 by adopting the same CO2 emission inventory and dynamical modules as described in Kawa et al. (convective transport scheme denoted as Conv1). Conv1 approximates the convective transport by using the bulk convective mass fluxes to redistribute trace gases. The alternate approximation, Conv2, partitions fluxes into updraft and downdraft, as well as into entrainment and detrainment, and has potential to yield a more realistic simulation of vertical redistribution through deep convection. Replacing Conv1 by Conv2 results in an overestimate of CO2 over biospheric sink regions. The largest discrepancies result in a CO2 difference of about 7.8 ppm in the July NH boreal forest, which is about 30% of the CO2 seasonality for that area. These differences are compared to those produced by emission scenario variations constrained by the framework of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to account for possible land use change and residual terrestrial CO2 sink. It is shown that the overestimated CO2 driven by Conv2 can be offset by introducing these supplemental emissions.

Bian, H.↗

Sensitivity Studies, Gap Analysis, and Benchmark Experiment Optimization for Reactor Applications

In regards to nuclear data, some reactor applications may lack validation experiments, which reduces confidence in predicted results. This is especially true for emerging advanced reactor, micro reactor, and Accelerator Driven System (ADS) designs. This work presents an approach to design new criticality experiments that have similar k eff cross section sensitivities to an application of interest. This process involves simulations to generate cross-section sensitivities to a parameter of interest (such as k eff ), a gap analysis to determine which existing benchmarks are most similar to the application, and an experiment optimization. This work focuses on cross-section sensitives and gap analysis for three examples relevant to the reactor physics community including a Travelling Wave Reactor (TWR) type-design, Kilopower (a space reactor design), and a lead-bismuth eutectic cooled accelerator-driven system (ADS) to transmute minor actinides.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Simulating Alpha Particles Incident on MKID Chips for Quantum Sensitivity Analysis

• Background noise from ionizing decay poses challenges for MKIDs due to their sensitivity to small energy depositions. • Our group bakes the MKID housing lid in radon to study effects of alphas from daughter isotopes in the decay chain. • The impact of alpha particles on the chip depends on their energy, making their distribution key to characterizing and reducing noise in superconducting quantum devices.

Hall, Matthew [Southern California U.]↗

Timescale Dependence of the Precipitation Response to CO 2 ‐Induced Warming in Millennial‐Length Climate Simulations

Abstract Previous work has shown that estimates of climate sensitivity vary over time in response to abrupt CO 2 forcing in climate model simulations. The energy fluxes that drive warming in response to increasing CO 2 also influence precipitation, which prompts the question: Does the precipitation response therefore also vary over time? We investigate by examining the response of precipitation to warming forced by greenhouse gases—the hydrological sensitivity—in a set of millennial‐length climate simulations with multiple climate models, Long Run Model Intercomparison Project (LongRunMIP). We compare hydrological sensitivity calculated from three different timescales of the simulations: years 1–20, 21–150, and 151–1000. We show that the hydrological sensitivity lacks a consistent dependence on timescale, in contrast to climate sensitivity. Decomposition of the surface energy budget reveals that the relative muting of the multi‐model mean hydrological sensitivity is driven by surface downwelling shortwave flux.

Him (Kinen) Kao, Wing↗