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At least 487 records · Page 27

Evaluating long-term model-based scenarios of the energy system

Energy-economic models are used to provide science-based decision support in a variety of contexts. Analyses using these tools often involve defining a “reference” scenario, which serves as a counterfactual against which alternative scenarios are compared. Evaluating scenarios, including reference scenarios, is critical for establishing the credibility of the analyses these models support. We propose a framework for evaluating energy system scenarios which consists of three parts – a qualitative storyline, quantitative metrics, and evaluation criteria. We apply this framework to the reference scenario for GCAM-USA, a version of the global human-Earth system model GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) with state-level detail in the United States, focusing on the evolution of the electric power sector. We develop new visual analytic tools to facilitate the evaluation of model outcomes in 51 sub-national regions, and demonstrate how scenario performance can be tracked and compared across four quantifications of the GCAM-USA reference scenario.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Methology for Assessing the Regional Transportation Energy Demands of Different Spatial Residential Development Scenarios: a Case Study for the Upper Housatonic River Basin, Massachusetts

A method is suggested whereby regional landscape planning efforts can be aided by the use of a geographic information system to determine sites for more energy efficient residential and mixed use developments within a study area. The location of land parcels suited for residential and mixed land use developments in the Upper Housatonic River Basin Study Area in Berkshire County, Massachusetts is described as well as the three development options. Significant steps in the procedure are discussed and the computation of the transportation energy requirement is elaborated.

Oski, J. A.↗

Adapting ASPEN for Orbital Express

By studying the Orbital Express mission, modeling the spacecraft and scenarios, and testing the system, a technique has been developed that uses recursive decomposition to represent procedural actions declaratively, schema-level uncertainty reasoning to make uncertainty reasoning tractable, and lightweight, natural language processing to automatically parse procedures to produce declarative models. Schema-level uncertainty reasoning has, at its core, the basic assumption that certain variables are uncertain, but not independent. Once any are known, then the others become known. This is important where a variable is uncertain for an action and many actions of the same type exist in the plan. For example, if the number of retries to purge pump lines was unknown (but bounded), and each attempt required a sub-plan, then, once the correct number of attempts required for a purge was known, it would likely be the same for all subsequent purges. This greatly reduces the space of plans that needs to be searched to ensure that all executions are feasible. To accommodate changing scenario procedures, each is ingested into a tabular format in temporal order, and a simple natural-language parser is used to read each step and to derive the impact of that step on memory, power, and communications. Then an ASPEN (Activity Scheduling and Planning Environment) model is produced based on this analysis. The model is tested and further changed by hand, if necessary, to reflect the actual procedure. This results in a great savings of time used for modeling procedures. Many processes that need to be modeled in ASPEN (a declarative system) are, in fact, procedural. ASPEN includes the ability to model activities in a hierarchical fashion, but this representation breaks down if there is a practically unbounded number of sub-activities and decomposition topologies. However, if recursive decomposition is allowed, HTN-like encodings are enabled to represent most procedural phenomena. For example, if a switch requires a variable (but known at the time of the attempt) number of attempts to switch on, one can recurse on the number of remaining switch attempts and decompose into either the same switching activity with one less required attempt, or not decompose at all (or decompose into a dummy task), resulting in the end of the decomposition. In fact, any bounded procedural behavior can be modeled using recursive decompositions assuming that the variables impinging the disjunctive decomposition decision are computable at the time that the decision is made. This enables one to represent tasks that are controlled outside of the scheduler, but that the scheduler must accommodate, without requiring one to give a declarative model of the procedural behavior.

Chouinard, Caroline↗

Interactive Web Application for Traffic Simulation Data Management and Visualization

As traffic simulation software becomes more effective for realistically simulating and analyzing traffic dynamics and vehicle interactions on the mesoscopic and microscopic level, the management, dissemination, and collaborative visualization of traffic simulation results produced by individual transportation planners presents a significant challenge. Existing online content management systems have a very limited capability in allowing users to query specific traffic simulation scenarios and geospatially visualize simulation results through shareable and interactive web interfaces. This paper presents a web-based application for promoting the archiving, sharing, and visualization of large-scale traffic simulation outputs. The application is developed to enhance cyber-physical controls, communications, and public education for collaborative transportation planning. Unique features of the web application include: (a) allowing users to upload their new traffic simulation scenarios (parameters and outputs), as well as search existing scenarios using easily accessible interfaces; (b) optimizing simulation output files with heterogeneous data formats and projected coordinate systems for web-based storage and management using a scalable and searchable data/metadata standard; (c) standardizing user-uploaded simulation outputs using web interfaces and data processing libraries with parallel computing capacity; and (d) providing shareable web visual interfaces for visualizing the traffic flow and signal information stored in simulation outputs (e.g., regional traffic patterns and individual vehicle interactions) and visually comparing multiple simulation outputs both spatially and temporally. Furthermore, the paper presents the conceptual design and implementation of this application, and demonstrates the application’s performance for sharing, comparing, and visualizing simulation outputs from VISSIM and SUMO, two commonly used traffic simulation software programs.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

What Can We Learn from US National Transmission Studies?

Multiple US regions have announced new electricity transmission plans, are actively revisiting the future role of transmission, and could benefit from findings from recent national-scale transmission studies. A review of seven national studies shows that significant transmission expansion is cost-optimal for serving new demand, integrating additional resources, and supporting grid reliability. A majority of the reviewed scenarios, which span a range of policy and technology assumptions, include at least a doubling of the transmission system by 2050. The national studies find substantial net system cost savings from transmission expansion and high benefit-cost ratios for transmission investments. The results are derived through multi-value, nationally coordinated, co-optimized, multi-scenario modeling, which is an approach that could yield lower-cost pathways compared to current industry planning practices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Continual coordination of spacecraft through shared activities

Interacting agents that interleave planning and execution must reach consensus on their commitments to each other. In domains where agents have varying degrees of interaction and different constraints on communication and computation, agents will require different coordination protocols in order to efficiently reach consensus. ShAC (Shared Activity Coordination) is a framework for designing coordination protocols with an algorithm for continually coordinating agents using these protocols during execution. We show how to construct a wide range of protocols using this framework and describe how ShAC coordinates two rovers and an orbiter in a simulated Mars scenario.

Multiple agents coordination planning scheduling M↗

Automated and Adaptive Mission Planning for Orbital Express

The Orbital Express space mission was a Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) lead demonstration of on-orbit satellite servicing scenarios, autonomous rendezvous, fluid transfers of hydrazine propellant, and robotic arm transfers of Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) components. Boeing's Autonomous Space Transport Robotic Operations (ASTRO) vehicle provided the servicing to the Ball Aerospace's Next Generation Serviceable Satellite (NextSat) client. For communication opportunities, operations used the high-bandwidth ground-based Air Force Satellite Control Network (AFSCN) along with the relatively low-bandwidth GEO-Synchronous space-borne Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) network. Mission operations were conducted out of the RDT&E Support Complex (RSC) at the Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico. All mission objectives were met successfully: The first of several autonomous rendezvous was demonstrated on May 5, 2007; autonomous free-flyer capture was demonstrated on June 22, 2007; the fluid and ORU transfers throughout the mission were successful. Planning operations for the mission were conducted by a team of personnel including Flight Directors, who were responsible for verifying the steps and contacts within the procedures, the Rendezvous Planners who would compute the locations and visibilities of the spacecraft, the Scenario Resource Planners (SRPs), who were concerned with assignment of communications windows, monitoring of resources, and sending commands to the ASTRO spacecraft, and the Mission planners who would interface with the real-time operations environment, process planning products and coordinate activities with the SRP. The SRP position was staffed by JPL personnel who used the Automated Scheduling and Planning ENvironment (ASPEN) to model and enforce mission and satellite constraints. The lifecycle of a plan began three weeks outside its execution on-board. During the planning timeframe, many aspects could change the plan, causing the need for re-planning. These variable factors, ranging from shifting contact times to ground-station closures and required maintenance times, are discussed along with the flexibility of the ASPEN tool to accommodate changes to procedures and the daily or long-range plan, which contributed to the success of the mission. This paper will present an introduction to ASPEN, a more in-depth discussion on its use on the Orbital Express mission, and other relative work. A description of ground operations after the SRP deliveries were made is included, and we briefly discuss lessons learned from the planning perspective and future work.

scheduling↗

California Natural and Working Lands Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Model (CALAND) v3.0.0

CALAND is a system of algorithms (.r files) and data developed to quantify the impacts of various suites of California State-supported land use and land management strategies on landscape carbon and greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, and optional black carbon) relative to a baseline scenario for the Draft California 2030 Natural and Working Lands Climate Change Implementation Plan (2019).

Di Vittorio, Alan↗

Energy Storage and Decarbonization Analysis for Energy Regulators: Technical Analysis for the Illinois Commerce Commission

Jurisdictions around the world are enacting and enforcing an increasing number of policies to fight climate change, leading to higher penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) and energy storage systems (ESSs) in the power grid. One of the biggest challenges associated with this process is the evaluation of the appropriate amount of ESS required to mitigate the variability of the VREs and achieve decarbonization goals of a particular jurisdiction. This report presents methodologies developed and results obtained for determining the minimum amount of ESS required to adequately serve load in a system where fossil fueled generators are being replaced by VREs over the next two decades. This technical analysis is performed by Sandia National Laboratories for the DOE Office of Electricity Energy Storage Program in collaboration with the Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC). The Illinois MISO Zone 4 is used as a case study. Several boundary conditions are investigated in this analysis including capacity adequacy and energy adequacy to determine the quantity of ESS required for MISO Zone 4. Multiple scenarios are designed and evaluated to incorporate the impact of varying capacity values of VREs and on the resource adequacy of the system. Several retirement scenarios involving fossil-fueled assets are also considered. Based on the current plans of new additions and retirements of generating assets, the results of the technical analysis indicate that Illinois MISO Zone 4 will require a significant quantity of ESS to satisfy their electricity demand over the next two decades.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Definition of technology development missions for early space station satellite servicing, volume 2

The results of all aspects of the early space station satellite servicing study tasks are presented. These results include identification of servicing tasks (and locations), identification of servicing mission system and detailed objectives, functional/operational requirements analyses of multiple servicing scenarios, assessment of critical servicing technology capabilities and development of an evolutionary capability plan, design and validation of selected servicing technology development missions (TDMs), identification of space station satellite servicing accommodation needs, and the cost and schedule implications of acquiring both required technology capability development and conducting the selected TDMs.

Source record↗

NASA wake vortex research

NASA is conducting research that will enable safe improvements in the capacity of the nation's air transportation system. The wake-vortex hazard is a factor in establishing the minimum safe spacing between aircraft during landing and takeoff operations and, thus, impacts airport capacity. The ability to accurately model the wake hazard and determine safe separation distances for a wide range of aircraft and operational scenarios may provide the basis for significant increases in airport capacity. Current and planned NASA research is described which is focused on increasing airport capacity by safely reducing wake-hazard-imposed aircraft separations through advances in a number of technologies including vortex motion and decay prediction, vortex encounter modeling, wake-vortex hazard characterization, and in situ flow sensing.

Stough, H. P., III↗

Use NU-WRF and GCE Model to Simulate the Precipitation Processes During MC3E Campaign

One of major CRM approaches to studying precipitation processes is sometimes referred to as "cloud ensemble modeling". This approach allows many clouds of various sizes and stages of their lifecycles to be present at any given simulation time. Large-scale effects derived from observations are imposed into CRMs as forcing, and cyclic lateral boundaries are used. The advantage of this approach is that model results in terms of rainfall and QI and Q2 usually are in good agreement with observations. In addition, the model results provide cloud statistics that represent different types of clouds/cloud systems during their lifetime (life cycle). The large-scale forcing derived from MC3EI will be used to drive GCE model simulations. The model-simulated results will be compared with observations from MC3E. These GCE model-simulated datasets are especially valuable for LH algorithm developers. In addition, the regional scale model with very high-resolution, NASA Unified WRF is also used to real time forecast during the MC3E campaign to ensure that the precipitation and other meteorological forecasts are available to the flight planning team and to interpret the forecast results in terms of proposed flight scenarios. Post Mission simulations are conducted to examine the sensitivity of initial and lateral boundary conditions to cloud and precipitation processes and rainfall. We will compare model results in terms of precipitation and surface rainfall using GCE model and NU-WRF

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Optimized Trajectory Correction Burn Placement for NRHO Orbit Maintenance

NASA's future Artemis missions plan to utilize a near rectilinear halo orbit (NRHO) in the lunar vicinity to facilitate access to the lunar surface and place other critical assets to support human exploration. This exploration architecture requires a vehicle to remain in the NRHO for long periods of time ranging from several days, to weeks, to months, and even years. Consequently, periodic orbit maintenance burns become essential to ensure the spacecraft follows the desired reference trajectory in an efficient yet effective manner despite crew activity, navigation uncertainty, maneuver execution errors, disturbance accelerations, orbit insertion dispersions, and other system limitations. This work introduces a targeting algorithm that can be utilized to analyze a variety of targeting constraints and parameters that maximizes overall performance. Techniques associated with robust trajectory optimization are used to identify the optimized number and placement for NRHO trajectory correction (NTC) burns that accounts for the mission schedule, both a primary and backup navigation system, targeting strategies and burn plan configurations, vehicle venting, thruster selection, and integrated GN\&C performance. A notional scenario extracted from the NASA Artemis III mission is used to motivate and demonstrate these concepts and performance results.

Linear Covariance Analysis↗

Smart Charge Management and Vehicle Grid Integration Deep Dive

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Electric Vehicles at Scale Laboratory Consortium (EVs@Scale Lab Consortium) is accelerating research to support the establishment of a secure and scalable national network of charging infrastructure. Critical to this effort is an understanding of the potential grid impacts of EV charging and possible smart charge management (SCM) or vehicle-grid integration (VGI) capabilities that could mitigate these impacts. The EVs@Scale SCM/VGI Pillar is analyzing the impacts of EV charging and developing and demonstrating the capabilities of both SCM and VGI with many different vehicle use cases and grid scenarios. This deep dive discussion of the project encompasses the progress and future plans for the analysis components of the FUSE (Flexible charging to Unify the grid and transportation Sectors for Evs at scale) project.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Calculation of Operations Efficiency Factors for Mars Surface Missions

For planning of Mars surface missions, to be operated on a sol-by-sol basis by a team on Earth (where a "sol" is a Martian day), activities are described in terms of "sol types" that are strung together to build a surface mission scenario. Some sol types require ground decisions based on a previous sol's results to feed into the activity planning ("ground in the loop"), while others do not. Due to the differences in duration between Earth days and Mars sols, for a given Mars local solar time, the corresponding Earth time "walks" relative to the corresponding times on the prior sol/day. In particular, even if a communication window has a fixed Mars local solar time, the Earth time for that window will be approximately 40 minutes later each succeeding day. Further complexity is added for non-Mars synchronous communication relay assets, and when there are multiple control centers in different Earth time zones. The solution is the development of "ops efficiency factors" that reflect the efficiency of a given operations configuration (how many and location of control centers, types of communication windows, synchronous or non-synchronous nature of relay assets, sol types, more-or-less sustainable operations schedule choices) against a theoretical "optimal" operations configuration for the mission being studied. These factors are then incorporated into scenario models in order to determine the surface duration (and therefore minimum spacecraft surface lifetime) required to fulfill scenario objectives. The resulting model is used to perform "what-if" analyses for variations in scenario objectives. The ops efficiency factor is the ratio of the figure of merit for a given operations factor to the figure of merit for the theoretical optimal configuration. The current implementation is a pair of models in Excel. The first represents a ground operations schedule for 500 sols in each operations configuration for the mission being studied (500 sols was chosen as being a long enough time to capture variations in relay asset interactions, Earth/Mars time phasing, and seasonal variations in holidays). This model is used to estimate the ops efficiency factor for each operations configuration. The second model in a separate Excel spreadsheet is a scenario model, which uses the sol types to rack up the total number of "scenario sols" for that scenario (in other words, the ideal number of sols it would take to perform the scenario objectives). Then, the number of sols requiring ground in the loop is calculated based on the soil types contained in the given scenario. Next, the scenario contains a description of what sequence of operations configurations is used, for how many days each, and this is used with the corresponding ops efficiency factors for each configuration to calculate the "ops duration" corresponding to that scenario. Finally, a margin is applied to determine the minimum surface lifetime required for that scenario. Typically, this level of analysis has not been performed until much later in the mission, and has not been able to influence mission design. Further, the notion of moving to sustainable operations during Prime Mission - and the effect that that move would have on surface mission productivity and mission objective choices - has not been encountered until the most recent rover missions (MSL and Mars 2018).

Layback, Sharon L.↗

U.S. Distribution Transformer Demand Phase III - Key Drivers and Managing Demand [Slides]

This presentation demonstrates a significant analysis, on forecasting the demand for distribution transformers. The analysis is conducted for the United States, estimating the initial in-service capacity of these assets, and forecasting demand for these assets through 2050 with several sensitivities conducted. It examines not only demand for these assets, but importantly, how utility planning practices can impact the demand for theses assets in time. Under load growth scenarios, whether utilities practice like-for-like replacement strategies as failures occur, or whether they practice proactive up-sizing, anticipating electric load growth, can have major impacts on future demand. It also examines several other growth factors, such as the increasing demand for step-up transformers, which share many of the same characteristics as distribution transformers, and the demand for specific transformers for large project growth from data centers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

PIP-II cryoplant non thermal cycling updates

The Proton Improvement Plan-II (PIP-II) is a crucial upgrade to the Fermilab accelerator complex, featuring a new 800-MeV Superconducting Radio-Frequency (SRF) linear accelerator (LINAC) with 23 cryomodules operating at 2 K. The LINAC thermohydraulic conditions are satisfied by the cryogenic subsystems: Cryogenic Distribution System (CDS), a helium refrigerator cold box (CB), a warm compression station (WCS) and a helium recovery system (RSYS). The accelerator has a strict requirement of non-thermal cycling of the LINAC cryomodules during planned and unplanned subsystem outages. This paper presents an integrated reliability analysis of the PIPII cryoplant. The study evaluates both normal and abnormal operating modes, with a focus on identifying integrated scenarios that put subsystems components under stress. The conclusions of this study will help build redundancy to mitigate LINAC thermal cycling risks during planned and unplanned subsystem outages.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Pathways for Tamil Nadu’s Electric Power Sector: 2020 - 2030

This report is part one of a two-part series that represents a year-long collaboration with the Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation Limited (TANGEDCO) and Tamil Nadu Transmission Corporation Limited (TANTRANSCO) on power sector planning. This Pathways for Tamil Nadu’s Electric Power Sector 2020-2030 report outlines NREL’s work with TANGEDCO's electricity sector planning department to develop a model of the State power system and evaluate multiple scenarios of system evolution given resource constraints, costs of technologies, and power sector policies. A broad stakeholder group comprised of TANGEDCO leadership, developers, regulators, and researchers from within the power sector community in Tamil Nadu helped to guide the main objectives of the study and provided technical feedback to the research team. The outcomes of this effort include multiple pathways for power sector growth to 2030 and a robust model of Tamil Nadu's power system that can be used to continually analyze the impact of new policies, regulations, or system changes. The second report in this series will build on the bulk system analysis by focusing on the rapidly transforming distribution network in the State. The report will outline a framework developed by NREL and TANGEDCO's distribution utility to quickly and accurately analyze the impacts of integrating renewable energy onto Tamil Nadu's distribution system. Together these studies help to prepare Tamil Nadu for a rapidly transforming power system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗