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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Investigation of Natural Circulation Instability and Transients in Passively Safe Small Modular Reactors

The NEUP funded project, NEUP-3496, aims to experimentally investigate two-phase natural circulation flow instability that could occur in Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), especially for natural circulation SMRs. The objective has been achieved by systematically performing tests to study the general natural circulation instability characteristics and the natural circulation behavior under start-up or design basis accident conditions. Experimental data sets highlighting the effect of void reactivity feedback as well as the effect of power ramp-up rate and system pressure have been used to develop a comprehensive stability map. The safety analysis code, RELAP5, has been used to evaluate experimental results and models. Improvements to the constitutive relations for flashing have been made in order to develop a reliable analysis tool. This research has been focusing on two generic SMR designs, i.e. a small modular Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (SBWR) like design and a small integral Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) like design. A BWR-type natural circulation test facility was firstly built based on the three-level scaling analysis of the Purdue Novel Modular Reactor (NMR) with an electric output of 50 MWe, namely NMR-50, which represents a BWR-type SMR with a significantly reduced reactor pressure vessel (RPV) height. The experimental facility was installed with various equipment to measure thermalhydraulic parameters such as pressure, temperature, mass flow rate and void fraction. Characterization tests were performed before the startup transient tests and quasi-steady tests to determine the loop flow resistance. The control system and data acquisition system were programmed with LabVIEW to realize the realtime control and data storage. The thermal-hydraulic and nuclear coupled startup transients were performed to investigate the flow instabilities at low pressure and low power conditions for NMR-50. Two different power ramps were chosen to study the effect of startup power density on the flow instability. The experimental startup transient results showed the existence of three different flow instability mechanisms, i.e., flashing instability, condensation induced flow instability, and density wave oscillations. In addition, the void-reactivity feedback did not have significant effects on the flow instability during the startup transients for NMR-50. ii Several initial startup procedures with different power ramp rates were experimentally investigated to eliminate the flow instabilities observed from the startup transients. Particularly, the very slow startup transient and pressurized startup transient tests were performed and compared. It was found that the very slow startup transients by applying very small power density can eliminate the flashing oscillations in the single-phase natural circulation and stabilize the flow oscillations in the phase of net vapor generation. The initially pressurized startup procedure was tested to eliminate the flashing instability during the startup transients as well. The pressurized startup procedure included the initial pressurization, heat-up, and venting process. The startup transient tests showed that the pressurized startup procedure could eliminate the flow instability during the transition from single-phase flow to two-phase flow at low pressure conditions. The experimental results indicated that both startup procedures were applicable to the initial startup of NMR. However, the pressurized startup procedures might be preferred due to short operating hours required. In order to have a deeper understanding of natural circulation flow instability, the quasi-steady tests were performed using the test facility installed with preheater and subcooler. The effect of system pressure, core inlet subcooling, core power density, inlet flow resistance coefficient, and void reactivity feedback were investigated in the quasi-steady state tests. The experimental stability boundaries were determined between unstable and stable flow conditions in the dimensionless stability plane of inlet subcooling number and Zuber number. To predict the stability boundary theoretically, linear stability analysis in the frequency domain was performed at four sections of the natural circulation test loop. The flashing phenomena in the chimney section was considered as an axially uniform heat source. And the dimensionless characteristic equation of the pressure drop perturbation was obtained by considering the void fraction effect and outlet flow resistance in the core section. The theoretical flashing boundary showed some discrepancies with previous experimental data from the quasi-steady state tests. In the future, thermal non-equilibrium was recommended to improve the accuracy of flashing instability boundary. As another part of the funded research, flow instabilities of a PWR-type SMR under low pressure and low power conditions were investigated experimentally as well. The NuScale reactor design was selected as the prototype for the PWR-type SMR. In order to experimentally study the natural circulation behavior of NuScale iii reactor during accidental scenarios, detailed scaling analyses are necessary to ensure that the scaled phenomena could be obtained in a laboratory test facility. The three-level scaling method is used as well to obtain the scaling ratios derived from various non-dimensional numbers. The design of the ideally scaled facility (ISF) was initially accomplished based on these scaling ratios. Then the engineering scaled facility (ESF) was designed and constructed based on the ISF by considering engineering limitations including laboratory space, pipe size, and pipe connections etc. PWR-type SMR experiments were performed in this well-scaled test facility to investigate the potential thermal hydraulic flow instability during the blowdown events, which might occur during the loss of coolant accident (LOCA) and loss of heat sink accident (LOHS) of the prototype PWR-type SMR. Two kinds of experiments, normal blowdown event and cold blowdown event, were experimentally investigated and compared with code predictions. The normal blowdown event was experimentally simulated since an initial condition where the pressure was lower than the designed pressure of the experiment facility, while the code prediction of blowdown started from the normal operation condition. Important thermal hydraulic parameters including reactor pressure vessel (RPV) pressure, containment pressure, local void fraction and temperature, pressure drop and natural circulation flow rate were measured and analyzed during the blowdown event. The pressure and water level transients are similar to the experimental results published by NuScale [51], which proves the capability of current loop in simulating the thermal hydraulic transient of real PWR-type SMR. During the 20000s blowdown experiment, water level in the core was always above the active fuel assemble during the experiment and proved the safety of natural circulation cooling and water recycling design of PWR-type SMR. Besides, pressure, temperature, and water level transient can be accurately predicted by RELAP5 code. However, the oscillations of natural circulation flow rate, water level and pressure drops were observed during the blowdown transients. This kind of flow oscillations are related to the water level and the location upper plenum, which is a path for coolant flow from chimney to steam generator and down comer. In order to investigate the transients start from the opening of ADS valve in both experimental and numerical way, the cold blow-down experiment is conducted. For the cold blowdown event, different from setting both reactor iv pressure vessel (RPV) and containment at high temperature and pressure, only RPV was heated close to the highest designed pressure and then open the ADS valve, same process was predicted using RELAP5 code. By doing cold blowdown experiment, the entire transients from the opening of ADS can be investigated by code and benchmarked with experimental data. Similar flow instability observed in the cold blowdown experiment. The comparison between code prediction and experiment data showed that the RELAP5 code can successfully predict the pressure void fraction and temperature transient during the cold blowdown event with limited error, but numerical instability exists in predicting natural circulation flow rate. Besides, the code is lack of capability in predicting the water level related flow instability observed in experiments.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1988

Integrated avionics reliability

The integrated avionics reliability task is an effort to build credible reliability and/or performability models for multisensor integrated navigation and flight control. The research was initiated by the reliability analysis of a multisensor navigation system consisting of the Global Positioning System (GPS), the Long Range Navigation system (Loran C), and an inertial measurement unit (IMU). Markov reliability models were developed based on system failure rates and mission time.

Alikiotis, Dimitri↗
NASA NTRS2016

Mass and Reliability System (MaRS)

The Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Directorate is responsible for mitigating risk, providing system safety, and lowering risk for space programs from ground to space. The S&MA is divided into 4 divisions: The Space Exploration Division (NC), the International Space Station Division (NE), the Safety & Test Operations Division (NS), and the Quality and Flight Equipment Division (NT). The interns, myself and Arun Aruljothi, will be working with the Risk & Reliability Analysis Branch under the NC Division's. The mission of this division is to identify, characterize, diminish, and communicate risk by implementing an efficient and effective assurance model. The team utilizes Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to ensure decisions concerning risks are informed, vehicles are safe and reliable, and program/project requirements are realistic and realized. This project pertains to the Orion mission, so it is geared toward a long duration Human Space Flight Program(s). For space missions, payload is a critical concept; balancing what hardware can be replaced by components verse by Orbital Replacement Units (ORU) or subassemblies is key. For this effort a database was created that combines mass and reliability data, called Mass and Reliability System or MaRS. The U.S. International Space Station (ISS) components are used as reference parts in the MaRS database. Using ISS components as a platform is beneficial because of the historical context and the environment similarities to a space flight mission. MaRS uses a combination of systems: International Space Station PART for failure data, Vehicle Master Database (VMDB) for ORU & components, Maintenance & Analysis Data Set (MADS) for operation hours and other pertinent data, & Hardware History Retrieval System (HHRS) for unit weights. MaRS is populated using a Visual Basic Application. Once populated, the excel spreadsheet is comprised of information on ISS components including: operation hours, random/nonrandom failures, software/hardware failures, quantity, orbital replaceable units (ORU), date of placement, unit weight, frequency of part, etc. The motivation for creating such a database will be the development of a mass/reliability parametric model to estimate mass required for replacement parts. Once complete, engineers working on future space flight missions will have access a mean time to failures and on parts along with their mass, this will be used to make proper decisions for long duration space flight missions

Barnes, Sarah↗
DOE OSTI2013

Continuous Reliability Enhancement for Wind (CREW) database :

To benchmark the current U.S. wind turbine fleet reliability performance and identify the major contributors to component-level failures and other downtime events, the Department of Energy funded the development of the Continuous Reliability Enhancement for Wind (CREW) database by Sandia National Laboratories. This report is the third annual Wind Plant Reliability Benchmark, to publically report on CREW findings for the wind industry. The CREW database uses both high resolution Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data from operating plants and Strategic Power Systems ORAPWindª (Operational Reliability Analysis Program for Wind) data, which consist of downtime and reserve event records and daily summaries of various time categories for each turbine. Together, these data are used as inputs into CREW s reliability modeling. The results presented here include: the primary CREW Benchmark statistics (operational availability, utilization, capacity factor, mean time between events, and mean downtime); time accounting from an availability perspective; time accounting in terms of the combination of wind speed and generation levels; power curve analysis; and top system and component contributors to unavailability.

Hines, Valerie Ann-Peters↗
NASA NTRS2013

Weight Assessment for Fuselage Shielding on Aircraft With Open-Rotor Engines and Composite Blade Loss

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has been engaged in discussions with airframe and engine manufacturers concerning regulations that would apply to new technology fuel efficient "openrotor" engines. Existing regulations for the engines and airframe did not envision features of these engines that include eliminating the fan blade containment systems and including two rows of counter-rotating blades. Damage to the airframe from a failed blade could potentially be catastrophic. Therefore the feasibility of using aircraft fuselage shielding was investigated. In order to establish the feasibility of this shielding, a study was conducted to provide an estimate for the fuselage shielding weight required to provide protection from an open-rotor blade loss. This estimate was generated using a two-step procedure. First, a trajectory analysis was performed to determine the blade orientation and velocity at the point of impact with the fuselage. The trajectory analysis also showed that a blade dispersion angle of 3deg bounded the probable dispersion pattern and so was used for the weight estimate. Next, a finite element impact analysis was performed to determine the required shielding thickness to prevent fuselage penetration. The impact analysis was conducted using an FAA-provided composite blade geometry. The fuselage geometry was based on a medium-sized passenger composite airframe. In the analysis, both the blade and fuselage were assumed to be constructed from a T700S/PR520 triaxially-braided composite architecture. Sufficient test data on T700S/PR520 is available to enable reliable analysis, and also demonstrate its good impact resistance properties. This system was also used in modeling the surrogate blade. The estimated additional weight required for fuselage shielding for a wing- mounted counterrotating open-rotor blade is 236 lb per aircraft. This estimate is based on the shielding material serving the dual use of shielding and fuselage structure. If the shielding material is not used for dual purpose, and is only used for shielding, then the additional weight per aircraft is estimated to be 428 lb. This weight estimate is based upon a number of assumptions that would need to be revised when applying this concept to an actual airplane design. For example, the weight savings that will result when there is no fan blade containment system, manufacturing limitations which may increase the weight where variable thicknesses was assumed, engine placement on the wing versus aft fuselage, etc.

aircraft safety↗
NASA NTRS2018

ExMASS: A viable model for authentic student-scientist research partnerships

The Exploration of the Moon and Asteroids by Secondary Students (ExMASS) program provides students the opportunity to conduct authentic, student-led, open-inquiry research with assistance from their teacher and a scientist. One goal of the program is to enhance participants’ attitudes toward science. Most students enter the ExMASS program with positive attitudes toward science. However, the attitude survey developed for ExMASS measured small but statistically significant increases in attitudes. This paper discusses the ExMASS program, an attitude towards science survey designed for the program’s specific audience, and the results of statistical analyses of the survey. The validity of the attitudes survey was tested with an exploratory factor analysis (EFA). The results of the EFA revealed two salient factors measured by the survey: 1) Personal Importance of Science and 2) Importance of Science to Society. A reliability analysis revealed a Cronbach alpha value of 0.89. Paired t-tests revealed statistically significant differences in students’ attitudes before and after the program. For Factor 1, participants’ before scores were statistically significantly lower than their post scores, t(88) = 3.16, p<0.05. For Factor 2, participants’ before scores were statistically significantly lower than their post scores, t(88) = 4.47, p<0.05. ExMASS has been shown to be a practical model for programs designed to increase high school student attitudes toward science. More information on the ExMASS program is available at https://www.lpi.usra.edu/exploration/education/hsResearch/.

science↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Physics of Failure (PoF) for Reliability

An item’s reliability or longevity is dependent not only on its design but also on how it is used, manufactured, tested, and the stresses it has or will experience. Stresses include operational and environmental exposures to thermal, voltage, current, age/exposure, mechanical, and radiation mechanisms. Therefore, in reliability analysis, it is important to consider the contributions of all these factors when predicting the failure rates of components. Historically, there has been a reliance on handbook data (e.g., MIL-HDBK-217), but experience has shown that these values and distributions are not representative of actual performance. Therefore, to make more credible reliability and risk assessments for its missions, NASA must transition to estimating likelihoods of failure based on an item’s reliability or longevity factors (or the physical susceptibilities and strengths impacting the design’s performance) has or will experience, whenever possible. To facilitate this transition, a Handbook on Methodology for Physics of Failure Based Reliability Assessments has been developed by NASA to assist in applying physics experiences or experimental physics for empirical analysis and conceptualized physics exposures or theoretical physics for deterministic analysis, to develop and aggregate realistic likelihoods of failure leading to more credible forecasts of item performance and longevity. In addition, since it is NASA’s intention that this document continues to evolve based on community lessons learned and the introduction of new assessment methodologies, NASA is encouraging and appreciates the contributions of current and future authors to maintain and enhance this handbook and its supporting case studies.

PoF↗
DOE OSTI2013

PhenoDigm: analyzing curated annotations to associate animal models with human diseases

The ultimate goal of studying model organisms is to translate what is learned into useful knowledge about normal human biology and disease to facilitate treatment and early screening for diseases. Recent advances in genomic technologies allow for rapid generation of models with a range of targeted genotypes as well as their characterization by high-throughput phenotyping. As an abundance of phenotype data become available, only systematic analysis will facilitate valid conclusions to be drawn from these data and transferred to human diseases. Owing to the volume of data, automated methods are preferable, allowing for a reliable analysis of the data and providing evidence about possible gene–disease associations. Here, we propose Phenotype comparisons for DIsease Genes and Models (PhenoDigm), as an automated method to provide evidence about gene–disease associations by analysing phenotype information. PhenoDigm integrates data from a variety of model organisms and, at the same time, uses several intermediate scoring methods to identify only strongly datasupported gene candidates for human genetic diseases. We show results of an automated evaluation as well as selected manually assessed examples that support the validity of PhenoDigm. Furthermore, we provide guidance on how to browse the data with PhenoDigm’s web interface and illustrate its usefulness in supporting research. Database URL: http://www.sanger.ac.uk/resources/databases/phenodigm

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

User's guide to the Reliability Estimation System Testbed (REST)

The Reliability Estimation System Testbed is an X-window based reliability modeling tool that was created to explore the use of the Reliability Modeling Language (RML). RML was defined to support several reliability analysis techniques including modularization, graphical representation, Failure Mode Effects Simulation (FMES), and parallel processing. These techniques are most useful in modeling large systems. Using modularization, an analyst can create reliability models for individual system components. The modules can be tested separately and then combined to compute the total system reliability. Because a one-to-one relationship can be established between system components and the reliability modules, a graphical user interface may be used to describe the system model. RML was designed to permit message passing between modules. This feature enables reliability modeling based on a run time simulation of the system wide effects of a component's failure modes. The use of failure modes effects simulation enhances the analyst's ability to correctly express system behavior when using the modularization approach to reliability modeling. To alleviate the computation bottleneck often found in large reliability models, REST was designed to take advantage of parallel processing on hypercube processors.

Nicol, David M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A quantitative analysis of the F18 flight control system

This paper presents an informal quantitative analysis of the F18 flight control system (FCS). The analysis technique combines a coverage model with a fault tree model. To demonstrate the method's extensive capabilities, we replace the fault tree with a digraph model of the F18 FCS, the only model available to us. The substitution shows that while digraphs have primarily been used for qualitative analysis, they can also be used for quantitative analysis. Based on our assumptions and the particular failure rates assigned to the F18 FCS components, we show that coverage does have a significant effect on the system's reliability and thus it is important to include coverage in the reliability analysis.

Doyle, Stacy A.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Aircraft Analysis Using the Layered and Extensible Aircraft Performance System (LEAPS)

The Layered and Extensible Aircraft Performance System (LEAPS) is a new air- craft analysis tool being developed by members of the Aeronautics Systems Analysis Branch (ASAB) and the Vehicle Analysis Branch (VAB) at NASA Langley Research Center. LEAPS will enable the analysis of advanced aircraft concepts and architec- tures that include electric and hybrid-electric propulsion systems. The development of LEAPS is motivated by the analysis gaps found in traditional aircraft analysis tools such as the Flight Optimization System (FLOPS). FLOPS has been the tool of choice of the ASAB for over 30 years and has proven to be a reliable analysis tool for conventional aircraft. However, FLOPS is not suitable to analyze the cur- rent unconventional vehicles that are of interest to industry, government agencies, and academia. In contrast, LEAPS is being developed with a flexible architecture that leverages new analysis methodologies that will enable the analysis of unconven- tional aircraft. This paper presents the first complete working version of LEAPS by showing the analysi at include fuel-based and hybrid-electric conceptual aircraft.

Capristan, Francisco M.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A study of discrete control signal fault conditions in the shuttle DPS

An analysis of the effects of discrete failures on the data processing subsystem is presented. A functional description of each discrete together with a list of software modules that use this discrete are included. A qualitative description of the consequences that may ensue due to discrete failures is given followed by a probabilistic reliability analysis of the data processing subsystem. Based on the investigation conducted, recommendations were made to improve the reliability of the subsystem.

Reddi, S. S.↗
NASA NTRS2022

NASA Physics of Failure (PoF) for Reliability

An item’s reliability or longevity is dependent not only on its design but also on how it is used, manufactured, tested, and the stresses it has or will experience. Stresses include operational and environmental exposures to thermal, voltage, current, age/exposure, mechanical, and radiation mechanisms. Therefore, in reliability analysis, it is important to consider the contributions of all of these factors when predicting the failure rates of components. Historically, there has been a reliance on handbook data (e.g., MIL-HDBK-217), but experience has shown that these values and distributions are not representative of actual performance (1,2). Therefore, to make more credible reliability and risk assessments for its missions, NASA must transition to estimating likelihoods of failure based on an item’s reliability/longevity factors (or the physical susceptibilities and strengths impacting the design’s performance) has or will experience, whenever possible. To facilitate this transition a “Handbook on Methodology for Physics of Failure Based Reliability Assessments” has been developed by NASA to assist in applying physics experiences or experiment physics for empirical analysis and conceptualized physics exposures or theoretical physics for deterministic analysis, to develop and aggregate realistic likelihoods of failure leading to more credible forecasts of item performance and longevity. In addition, since it is NASA’s intention that this document continues to evolve based on community lessons learned and the introduction of new assessment methodologies, NASA is encouraging and appreciates the contributions of current and future authors to maintain and enhance this handbook and its supporting case studies.

Physics of Failure↗
NASA NTRS1988

Whisker-reinforced ceramic composites for heat engine components

Much work was undertaken to develop techniques of incorporating SiC whiskers into either a Si3N4 or SiC matrix. The result was the fabrication of ceramic composites with ever-increasing fracture toughness and strength. To complement this research effort, the fracture behavior of whisker-reinforced ceramics is studied so as to develop methodologies for the analysis of structural components fabricated from this toughened material. The results, outlined herein, focus on the following areas: the use of micromechanics to predict thermoelastic properties, theoretical aspects of fracture behavior, and reliability analysis.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Structural Reliability Using Probability Density Estimation Methods Within NESSUS

A reliability analysis studies a mathematical model of a physical system taking into account uncertainties of design variables and common results are estimations of a response density, which also implies estimations of its parameters. Some common density parameters include the mean value, the standard deviation, and specific percentile(s) of the response, which are measures of central tendency, variation, and probability regions, respectively. Reliability analyses are important since the results can lead to different designs by calculating the probability of observing safe responses in each of the proposed designs. All of this is done at the expense of added computational time as compared to a single deterministic analysis which will result in one value of the response out of many that make up the density of the response. Sampling methods, such as monte carlo (MC) and latin hypercube sampling (LHS), can be used to perform reliability analyses and can compute nonlinear response density parameters even if the response is dependent on many random variables. Hence, both methods are very robust; however, they are computationally expensive to use in the estimation of the response density parameters. Both methods are 2 of 13 stochastic methods that are contained within the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) program. NESSUS is a probabilistic finite element analysis (FEA) program that was developed through funding from NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). It has the additional capability of being linked to other analysis programs; therefore, probabilistic fluid dynamics, fracture mechanics, and heat transfer are only a few of what is possible with this software. The LHS method is the newest addition to the stochastic methods within NESSUS. Part of this work was to enhance NESSUS with the LHS method. The new LHS module is complete, has been successfully integrated with NESSUS, and been used to study four different test cases that have been proposed by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE). The test cases compare different probabilistic methods within NESSUS because it is important that a user can have confidence that estimates of stochastic parameters of a response will be within an acceptable error limit. For each response, the mean, standard deviation, and 0.99 percentile, are repeatedly estimated which allows confidence statements to be made for each parameter estimated, and for each method. Thus, the ability of several stochastic methods to efficiently and accurately estimate density parameters is compared using four valid test cases. While all of the reliability methods used performed quite well, for the new LHS module within NESSUS it was found that it had a lower estimation error than MC when they were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, and 0.99 percentile of the four different stochastic responses. Also, LHS required a smaller amount of calculations to obtain low error answers with a high amount of confidence than MC. It can therefore be stated that NESSUS is an important reliability tool that has a variety of sound probabilistic methods a user can employ and the newest LHS module is a valuable new enhancement of the program.

Chamis, Chrisos C.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Reliable automatic plan selection for visual robotic positioning

Reliability analysis techniques developed for robotics are applied to a six-DOF (degree-of-freedom) visual positioning system. The task is to measure an object's pose and then grip the object reliably subject to time and accuracy constraints. Errors due to pixel truncation in the stadimetric vision system, forward kinematic and inverse kinematic uncertainties, and joint position and velocity noise are stochastically modeled. Simulation results for PUMA 500 kinematic and dynamic characteristics are presented.

Mcinroy, John E.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Girsanov's transformation based variance reduced Monte Carlo simulation schemes for reliability estimation in nonlinear stochastic dynamics

The study considers the problem of simulation based time variant reliability analysis of nonlinear randomly excited dynamical systems. Attention is focused on importance sampling strategies based on the application of Girsanov's transformation method. Controls which minimize the distance function, as in the first order reliability method (FORM), are shown to minimize a bound on the sampling variance of the estimator for the probability of failure. Two schemes based on the application of calculus of variations for selecting control signals are proposed: the first obtains the control force as the solution of a two-point nonlinear boundary value problem, and, the second explores the application of the Volterra series in characterizing the controls. The relative merits of these schemes, vis-à-vis the method based on ideas from the FORM, are discussed. Illustrative examples, involving archetypal single degree of freedom (dof) nonlinear oscillators, and a multi-degree of freedom nonlinear dynamical system, are presented. The credentials of the proposed procedures are established by comparing the solutions with pertinent results from direct Monte Carlo simulations. - Highlights: • The distance minimizing control forces minimize a bound on the sampling variance. • Establishing Girsanov controls via solution of a two-point boundary value problem. • Girsanov controls via Volterra's series representation for the transfer functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Use of Probabilistic Methods to Evaluate the Systems Impact of Component Design Improvements on Large Turbofan Engines

Probabilistic Structural Analysis (PSA) is now commonly used for predicting the distribution of time/cycles to failure of turbine blades and other engine components. These distributions are typically based on fatigue/fracture and creep failure modes of these components. Additionally, reliability analysis is used for taking test data related to particular failure modes and calculating failure rate distributions of electronic and electromechanical components. How can these individual failure time distributions of structural, electronic and electromechanical component failure modes be effectively combined into a top level model for overall system evaluation of component upgrades, changes in maintenance intervals, or line replaceable unit (LRU) redesign? This paper shows an example of how various probabilistic failure predictions for turbine engine components can be evaluated and combined to show their effect on overall engine performance. A generic model of a turbofan engine was modeled using various Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) tools (Quantitative Risk Assessment Software (QRAS) etc.). Hypothetical PSA results for a number of structural components along with mitigation factors that would restrict the failure mode from propagating to a Loss of Mission (LOM) failure were used in the models. The output of this program includes an overall failure distribution for LOM of the system. The rank and contribution to the overall Mission Success (MS) is also given for each failure mode and each subsystem. This application methodology demonstrates the effectiveness of PRA for assessing the performance of large turbine engines. Additionally, the effects of system changes and upgrades, the application of different maintenance intervals, inclusion of new sensor detection of faults and other upgrades were evaluated in determining overall turbine engine reliability.

Packard, Michael H.↗