Ternary antimonide NaCd[subscript 4]Sb[subscript 3]: hydride synthesis, crystal structure and transp
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Courteau, Brittany↗
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Results for “Predictive Data analytics”
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Ligand-Based Compound Activity Prediction via Few-Shot Learning
Predicting the activities of new compounds against biophysical or phenotypic assays based on the known activities of one or a few existing compounds is a common goal in early stage drug discovery. This problem can be cast as a “few-shot learning” challenge, and prior studies have developed few-shot learning methods to classify compounds as active versus inactive. However, the ability to go beyond classification and rank compounds by expected affinity is more valuable. We describe Few-Shot Compound Activity Prediction (FS-CAP), a novel neural architecture trained on a large bioactivity data set to predict compound activities against an assay outside the training set, based on only the activities of a few known compounds against the same assay. Our model aggregates encodings generated from the known compounds and their activities to capture assay information and uses a separate encoder for the new compound whose activity is to be predicted. The new method provides encouraging results relative to traditional chemical-similarity-based techniques as well as other state-of-the-art few-shot learning methods in tests on a variety of ligand-based drug discovery settings and data sets.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Computing Thermodynamic Properties of Fluids Augmented by Nanoconfinement: Application to Pressurized Methane
Nanoconfined fluids exhibit remarkably different thermodynamic behavior compared to the bulk phase. These confinement effects render predictions of thermodynamic quantities of nanoconfined fluids challenging. In particular, confinement creates a spatially varying density profile near the wall that is primarily responsible for adsorption and capillary condensation behavior. Significant fluctuations in thermodynamic quantities, inherent in such nanoscale systems, coupled to strong fluid–wall interactions give rise to this near-wall density profile. Empirical models have been proposed to explain and model these effects, yet no first-principles based formulation has been developed. We present a statistical mechanics framework that embeds such a coupling to describe the effect of the fluid–wall interaction in amplifying the near-wall density behavior for compressible gases at elevated pressures such as pressurized methane in confinement. We show that the proposed theory predicts accurately the adsorbed layer thickness as obtained with small-angle neutron scattering measurements. Furthermore, the predictions of density under confinement from the proposed theory are shown to be in excellent agreement with available experimental and atomistic simulations data for a range of temperatures for nanoconfined methane. While the framework is presented for evaluating the near-wall density, owing to its rigorous foundation in statistical mechanics, the proposed theory can also be generalized for predicting phase-transition and nonequilibrium transport of nanoconfined fluids.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Quantifying the regime of thermodynamic control for solid-state reactions during ternary metal oxide synthesis
The success of solid-state synthesis often hinges on the first intermediate phase that forms, which determines the remaining driving force to produce the desired target material. Recent work suggests that when reaction energies are large, thermodynamics primarily dictates the initial product formed, regardless of reactant stoichiometry. Here, we validate this principle and quantify its constraints by performing in situ characterization on 37 pairs of reactants. These experiments reveal a threshold for thermodynamic control in solid-state reactions, whereby initial product formation can be predicted when its driving force exceeds that of all other competing phases by ≥60 milli–electron volt per atom. In contrast, when multiple phases have a comparable driving force to form, the initial product is more often determined by kinetic factors. Analysis of the Materials Project data shows that 15% of possible reactions fall within the regime of thermodynamic control, highlighting the opportunity to predict synthesis pathways from first principles.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Electronic structure prediction of multi-million atom systems through uncertainty quantification enabled transfer learning
The ground state electron density — obtainable using Kohn-Sham Density Functional Theory (KS-DFT) simulations — contains a wealth of material information, making its prediction via machine learning (ML) models attractive. However, the computational expense of KS-DFT scales cubically with system size which tends to stymie training data generation, making it difficult to develop quantifiably accurate ML models that are applicable across many scales and system configurations. Here, we address this fundamental challenge by employing transfer learning to leverage the multi-scale nature of the training data, while comprehensively sampling system configurations using thermalization. Our ML models are less reliant on heuristics, and being based on Bayesian neural networks, enable uncertainty quantification. We show that our models incur significantly lower data generation costs while allowing confident — and when verifiable, accurate — predictions for a wide variety of bulk systems well beyond training, including systems with defects, different alloy compositions, and at multi-million-atom scales. Moreover, such predictions can be carried out using only modest computational resources.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Predicting Small Molecule Transfer Free Energies by Combining Molecular Dynamics Simulations and Deep Learning
Accurately predicting small molecule partitioning and hydrophobicity is critical in the drug discovery process. There are many heterogeneous chemical environments within a cell and entire human body. For example, drugs must be able to cross the hydrophobic cellular membrane to reach their intracellular targets, and hydrophobicity is an important driving force for drug–protein binding. Atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are routinely used to calculate free energies of small molecules binding to proteins, crossing lipid membranes, and solvation but are computationally expensive. Machine learning (ML) and empirical methods are also used throughout drug discovery but rely on experimental data, limiting the domain of applicability. We present atomistic MD simulations calculating 15,000 small molecule free energies of transfer from water to cyclohexane. This large data set is used to train ML models that predict the free energies of transfer. We show that a spatial graph neural network model achieves the highest accuracy, followed closely by a 3D-convolutional neural network, and shallow learning based on the chemical fingerprint is significantly less accurate. A mean absolute error of ~4 kJ/mol compared to the MD calculations was achieved for our best ML model. We also show that including data from the MD simulation improves the predictions, tests the transferability of each model to a diverse set of molecules, and show multitask learning improves the predictions. This work provides insight into the hydrophobicity of small molecules and ML cheminformatics modeling, and our data set will be useful for designing and testing future ML cheminformatics methods.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Advanced CO 2 Capture Solvent Systems for Dynamic Power Generation: Quarterly Research Performance Progress Report, QR4 (Q4FY24)
We developed an integrated Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model to simulate the multi-physics coupled cooling process of mixed gas by cold water within a Direct Contact Cooler (DCC) equipped with a rotating packing bed (RPB). The model captures the interactions between fluid dynamics, heat transfer, mass transport, and phase transitions, while accounting for key operational variables such as RPB rotational speed and the mass flow rates of both liquid and gas. The CFD model has been validated using experimental data, specifically by comparing predicted outflow gas and liquid temperatures to measured results. Our findings demonstrate the significant effects of RPB rotational speed and mass flow rates on cooling performance, providing valuable insights for optimizing DCC efficiency in industrial applications.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
An Alternative Timing and Synchronization Approach for Situational Awareness and Predictive Analytics
Accurate and synchronized timing information is required by power system operators for controlling the grid infrastructure (relays, Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs), etc.) and determining asset positions. Satellite-based global positioning system (GPS) is the primary source of timing information. However, GPS disruptions today (both intentional and unintentional) can significantly compromise the reliability and security of our electric grids. A robust alternate source for accurate timing is critical to serve both as a deterrent against malicious attacks and as a redundant system in enhancing the resilience against extreme events that could disrupt the GPS network. To achieve this, we rely on the highly accurate, terrestrial atomic clock-based network for alternative timing and synchronization. In this paper, we discuss an experimental setup for an alternative timing approach. The data obtained from this experimental setup is continuously monitored and analyzed using various time deviation metrics. We also use these metrics to compute deviations of our clock with respect to the National Institute of Standards and Technologys (NIST) GPS data. The results obtained from these metric computations are elaborately discussed. Finally, we discuss the integration of the procedures involved, like real-time data ingestion, metric computation, and result visualization, in a novel microservices-based architecture for situational awareness.
Chinthavali, Supriya↗
Electrifying Airport GSE: Monte Carlo Grid Impacts
Airports globally are shifting from ICE-powered to electric Ground Support Equipment (eGSE) to enhance efficiency, reduce operational costs, and improve operator health. Leveraging predictable routes, flat terrain, and low operational speeds, airports provide ideal conditions for electrification. This study evaluates freight GSE electrification at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW), USA, using the Agile@ platform, which integrates three analytical methods: Freight Facility Model (FFM), Activity-Structure-Intensity-Fuel (ASIF), and Monte Carlo simulations. Results from 10,000 simulations indicate modest but critical increases in electricity demand and significant variability in GSE energy consumption. These insights emphasize the importance of data-driven scheduling, targeted maintenance, and strategic infrastructure planning. For high-uncertainty scenarios, airports are advised to deploy buffer energy storage systems (battery banks), implement demand-response charging strategies, schedule flexible workforce shifts, and prioritize proactive maintenance-particularly for equipment with higher operational uncertainty, such as tug tractors with trailers. Agile@ thus offers a robust, scalable, and data-driven framework to optimize long-term GSE planning and enhance reliability across diverse airport environments.
Bose, Ranjan [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000791026327)↗
DeepDiagnostics: A Software Package for Streamlined Posterior Evaluation
Automated prediction techniques like simulation-based inference (SBI) are important tasks for science experiments that produce large amounts of complex, raw data. However, their development remains in its early stages because the uncertainties of these techniques lack sufficient trustworthiness and interpretability. Packages for SBI provide a growing set of diagnostics; however, the software requirements are substantial, as they are tied to the inference technology itself, and the APIs lack adaptability. We introduce the DeepDiagnostics package for diagnosing posteriors from analytic likelihood-based methods and SBI methods, such as neural posterior estimation. DeepDiagnostics produces a comprehensive set of high-quality visualizations and metrics in a highly accessible, easy-to-use, and flexible package. We address all of these goals by providing a command-line inference tool and a Python API that is controlled through a configuration file. The package includes common diagnostics, such as parity plots, corner (covariance) plots, simulation-based calibration (SBC) diagnostics (including posterior coverage and rank histograms), Lemos et al. s PQMass and TARP, Masserano et al. s WALDO, Linhart et al. s LC2ST, as well as credible region diagnostics developed by our group.
Voetberg, Maggie [Fermilab]↗
Plutonium reactive transport in fractured granite: Multi-species experiments and simulations
Plutonium (Pu) in the subsurface environment can transport in different oxidation states as an aqueous solute or as colloidal particles. The transport behavior of Pu is affected by the relative abundances of these species and can be difficult to predict when they simultaneously exist. This study investigates the concurrent transport of Pu intrinsic colloids, Pu(IV) (aq) and Pu(V-VI) (aq) through a combination of controlled experiments and semi-analytical dual-porosity transport modeling. Pu transport experiments were conducted in a fractured granite at high and low flow rates to elucidate sorption processes and their scaling behavior. In the experiments, Pu(IV) (aq) was the least mobile of the Pu species, Pu(V-VI) (aq) had intermediate mobility, and the colloidal Pu, which consisted mainly of precipitated and/or hydrolyzed Pu(IV), was the most mobile. The semi-analytical modeling revealed that the sorption of each Pu species was rate-limited, as the sorption could not be described by assuming local equilibrium in the experiments. The model was able to describe the sorption of the different Pu species that occurring either on fracture surfaces, in the pores of the rock matrix, or simultaneously in both locations. While equally good fits to the data could be achieved using any of these assumptions, a fracture-dominated process was considered to be the most plausible because it provided the most reasonable estimates of sorption rate constants. Importantly, a key result of this work is that the sorption rate constant of all Pu species tends to decrease with increasing time scales, which implies that Pu will tend to be more mobile at longer time scales than observations at shorter time scales suggest. This result has important implications for predicting the environmental impacts of Pu in the safety assessments of geologic repositories for radioactive waste disposal, and we explore potential mechanistic bases for upscaling the sorption rate constants to time and distance scales that cannot be practically evaluated in experiments.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Hydrodynamic Characterization of a Shallow Rectangular Spouted Bed Using Bed Pressure Signals and Image Processing Methods
To support the design of spouted bed reactors, experiments are performed in a rectangular spouted bed to measure the peak pressure drop (Δ P max ) and the internal and external spouting velocities ( U is and U es ). Four particle types spanning under Geldart D and B are used. U is and U es are measured from bed pressure drop and expansion ratio profiles, respectively, with the U es / U is ratio of each particle type obtained. Additionally, correlations predicting the Δ P max of Geldart D and B particles are developed by reviewing published correlations and investigating the nozzle effect. Good prediction is achieved with a slope of 0.997 and an adjusted R 2 of 0.998 in a 95% confidence interval. U es is predicted through correlations developed by adding effects of d p / D i and H 0 in the Mathur–Gishler equation. The calculated U es agrees well with the experimental data, achieving a slope of 0.998 and an adjusted R 2 of 0.998 in a 95% confidence interval.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Singlet fission for quantum information and quantum computing: the parallel JDE model
Abstract Singlet fission is a photoconversion process that generates a doubly excited, maximally spin entangled pair state. This state has applications to quantum information and computing that are only beginning to be realized. In this article, we construct and analyze a spin-exciton hamiltonian to describe the dynamics of the two-triplet state. We find the selection rules that connect the doubly excited, spin-singlet state to the manifold of quintet states and comment on the mechanism and conditions for the transition into formally independent triplets. For adjacent dimers that are oriented and immobilized in an inert host, singlet fission can be strongly state-selective. We make predictions for electron paramagnetic resonance experiments and analyze experimental data from recent literature. Our results give conditions for which magnetic resonance pulses can drive transitions between optically polarized magnetic sublevels of the two-exciton states, making it possible to realize quantum gates at room temperature in these systems.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Time-Temperature-Stress Superposition of PBX 9502 Compressive Creep Data for Lifetime Predictions
The plastic-bonded explosive (PBX) 9502 is a viscoelastic, high-solids loaded polymer bound composite comprised of 95 weight% (wt%) TATB explosive crystals and 5 wt% FK-800 polymer binder. The uniaxial quasi-static mechanical properties have been studied and characterized extensively over 25+ years, including creep. Creep is the strain evolution over time as a result of an asymmetric load typically at temperatures above ambient. Creep measurements to failure can take excessively long periods of time depending on various factors including applied stress, temperature, and loading rate that render a single test to failure impossible. Using the principles of time-temperature-stress superposition (TTSSP), short-term creep tests at various applied stresses and temperatures can be used for long-term creep predictions. The TTSSP model shifts short-term test data using two factors, one for temperature and stress, creating a master curve at a reference test condition. The master curve can be shifted to predict the creep response at any desired test condition. PBX 9502 compression specimens were tested at three temperatures and various applied stresses. This work discusses the TTSSP analysis of PBX 9502 compressive creep data to create a single comprehensive master curve.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Neural network potentials with effective charge separation for non-equilibrium dynamics of ionic solids: a ZnO case study
Developing neural network potentials (NNPs) accurate under non-equilibrium dynamics is challenging, as such systems require extensive sampling beyond equilibrium phases. Here we construct high-fidelity NNPs for zinc oxide (ZnO), a polymorphic ionic solid, using density functional theory (DFT) reference data. To efficiently capture transitional configurations, we combine enhanced-sampling molecular dynamics with empirical potentials, data distillation, and pretraining on short-range atomic energies (A-Train), followed by transfer learning with DFT-relabeled datasets. This hierarchical approach improves transferability across polymorphs and stress states. We further introduce effective charge separation, treating long-range Coulombic terms analytically while short-range residual interactions are learned by the NNP. The optimal effective charges fall in the range 0.5–1.0 q e , consistent with dielectric-screened values derived from formal charges but distinct from Bader estimates. Motivated by this observation, we propose a simple data-driven protocol in which effective charges are optimized by comparing DFT reference energies with explicit Coulomb calculations, without additional NNP training. This strategy improves accuracy and transferability in DFT-level predictions of energies, forces, and stress. Together, these results provide a practical charge-selection framework for robust NNP development in ionic solids, enabling reliable simulation of polymorphic phase transformations and non-equilibrium dynamics.
Chemistry↗
PMDT: AI-Enabled Predictive Maintenance Digital Twins for Advanced Nuclear Reactors
Our team made substantial technical progress on various fronts during the course of the program. Multiple milestones were geared towards demonstrating the feasibility of machine learning based predictive maintenance digital twins towards reducing O&M costs, whereas some other milestones actually focused on identifying technical gaps and developing technologies such as humble AI to provide necessary robustness to the ML-based models. We were able to demonstrate in many cases that Machine learning-based methods can be successfully adapted for Nuclear plant environments especially for remote monitoring applications. Detailed analyses were carried out with plant and full scope simulation data along with capabilities of enhanced analytics to assess and set realistic expectations on cost reductions in O&M. These assessments are paving the way for investments towards reactor design improvements as well project planning for SMR projects as they develop and mature in the next few years. Technology developed under this program got direct visibility to GE Hitachi and their utility customers and resulted in positive intents to deploy some of the elements from design phase. The project additionally resulted in several reports, publications, software and data generation that will be useful in deployment and O&M services for BWRX300 fleets.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project
Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.
04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
Statistical learning for predicting density–matrix-based electron dynamics
In this study, we consider the problem of learning density-dependent molecular Hamiltonian matrices from time series of electron density matrices, all in the context of Hartree–Fock theory. Prior work developed a solution to this problem for small molecular systems with density and Hamiltonian matrices of size at most 6 × 6. Here, using a battery of techniques, we scale prior methods to larger molecular systems with, for example, 29 × 29 matrices. This includes systems that either have more electrons or are expressed in large basis sets such as 6-311++G**. Scaling the method to larger systems enhances its relevance for realistic applications in chemistry and physics. To achieve this scaling, we apply dimensionality reduction, ridge regression and analytic computation of Hessians. Through the combination of these techniques, we are able to learn Hamiltonians by minimizing an objective function that encodes local propagation error. Importantly, these learned Hamiltonians can then be used to predict electron dynamics for thousands of steps: When we use our learned Hamiltonians to numerically solve the time-dependent Hartree–Fock equation, we obtain predicted dynamics that are in close quantitative agreement with ground truth dynamics. This includes field-off trajectories similar to the training data and field-on trajectories outside of the training data.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗