Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Prediction Accuracy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 487 records · Page 27

Effects of modeling errors on trajectory predictions in air traffic control automation

Air traffic control automation synthesizes aircraft trajectories for the generation of advisories. Trajectory computation employs models of aircraft performances and weather conditions. In contrast, actual trajectories are flown in real aircraft under actual conditions. Since synthetic trajectories are used in landing scheduling and conflict probing, it is very important to understand the differences between computed trajectories and actual trajectories. This paper examines the effects of aircraft modeling errors on the accuracy of trajectory predictions in air traffic control automation. Three-dimensional point-mass aircraft equations of motion are assumed to be able to generate actual aircraft flight paths. Modeling errors are described as uncertain parameters or uncertain input functions. Pilot or autopilot feedback actions are expressed as equality constraints to satisfy control objectives. A typical trajectory is defined by a series of flight segments with different control objectives for each flight segment and conditions that define segment transitions. A constrained linearization approach is used to analyze trajectory differences caused by various modeling errors by developing a linear time varying system that describes the trajectory errors, with expressions to transfer the trajectory errors across moving segment transitions. A numerical example is presented for a complete commercial aircraft descent trajectory consisting of several flight segments.

Jackson, Michael R. C.↗

Stability and control derivatives of the lifting body vehicles

Predictions of the flight characteristics of lifting bodies have been based almost exclusively on wind-tunnel data for small-scale models. A need thus exists to compare the results from small-scale and full-scale wind-tunnel tests with results from flight tests to establish some measure of the accuracy of the predictions and to assess the sensitivity of the vehicle's handling qualities to typical discrepancies between flight and wind-tunnel results. Comparisons of these types have been one of the primary objectives of the M2-F2, HL-10, and X-24A flight programs. In this paper the more important longitudinal and lateral-directional aerodynamic stability and control derivatives obtained from flight are compared with small- and full-scale wind-tunnel results where applicable. Significant trends and important differences are pointed out, and the implications discussed.

Robert W Kempel↗

Synthetic Stromgren photometry for F dwarf stars

Recent synthetic spectrum and color calculations for cool dwarf star models are tested by comparison with observation. The accuracy of the computed dependence of the thermal colors B-V and b-y on effective temperature is examined, and H-beta indices are presented and compared with observed values. The accuracy of the predictions of the Stromgren uvby system metal-abundance indicator m1 and luminosity indicator c1 are tested. A new calibration of the c1, b-y diagram in terms of absolute magnitudes is given, making use of recent calculations of stellar isochrones. Observations of very metal-poor subdwarfs are used to study the accuracy of the isochrones. The c1, b-y diagram of the subdwarfs is compared with that of the turnoff-region stars in the very metal-poor globular cluster NGC 6397.

Bell, R. A.↗

Experimental verification of the Neuber relation at room and elevated temperatures

The accuracy of the Neuber equation at room temperature and 1,200 F as experimentally determined under cyclic load conditions with hold times. All strains were measured with an interferometric technique at both the local and remote regions of notched specimens. At room temperature, strains were obtained for the initial response at one load level and for cyclically stable conditions at four load levels. Stresses in notched members were simulated by subjecting smooth specimens to he same strains as were recorded on the notched specimen. Local stress-strain response was then predicted with excellent accuracy by subjecting a smooth specimen to limits established by the Neuber equation. Data at 1,200 F were obtained with the same experimental techniques but only in the cyclically stable conditions. The Neuber prediction at this temperature gave relatively accurate results in terms of predicting stress and strain points.

Lucas, L. J.↗

Power flow as a complement to statistical energy analysis and finite element analysis

Present methods of analysis of the structural response and the structure-borne transmission of vibrational energy use either finite element (FE) techniques or statistical energy analysis (SEA) methods. The FE methods are a very useful tool at low frequencies where the number of resonances involved in the analysis is rather small. On the other hand SEA methods can predict with acceptable accuracy the response and energy transmission between coupled structures at relatively high frequencies where the structural modal density is high and a statistical approach is the appropriate solution. In the mid-frequency range, a relatively large number of resonances exist which make finite element method too costly. On the other hand SEA methods can only predict an average level form. In this mid-frequency range a possible alternative is to use power flow techniques, where the input and flow of vibrational energy to excited and coupled structural components can be expressed in terms of input and transfer mobilities. This power flow technique can be extended from low to high frequencies and this can be integrated with established FE models at low frequencies and SEA models at high frequencies to form a verification of the method. This method of structural analysis using power flo and mobility methods, and its integration with SEA and FE analysis is applied to the case of two thin beams joined together at right angles.

Cuschieri, J. M.↗

Prediction of blade-vortex interaction noise using measured blade pressures

In the study reported here, blade-vortex interaction noise was predicted using a simplified model of blade pressures measured on a one-seventh scale model AH-1/OLS main rotor. The methods used for the acoustic prediction are based on the acoustic analogy and have been developed by Nakamura (1981) and by Brentner, Nystrom, and Farassat (referred to as the WOPWOP method). The waveforms predicted by the two methods are in good agreement with each other and with the measurements in terms of the number of pulses, the pulse widths, and the separation times between the pulses. The peak amplitude of the dominant pulse may, however, be underpredicted by up to 40 percent, depending on flight conditions. Ways of improving the accuracy of the prediction methods are suggested.

Joshi, Mahendra C.↗

Climate Quality Broadband and Narrowband Solar Reflected Radiance Calibration Between Sensors in Orbit

vAs the potential impacts of global climate change become more clear [1], the need to determine the accuracy of climate prediction over decade-to-century time scales has become an urgent and critical challenge. The most critical tests of climate model predictions will occur using observations of decadal changes in climate forcing, response, and feedback variables. Many of these key climate variables are observed by remotely sensing the global distribution of reflected solar spectral and broadband radiance. These "reflected solar" variables include aerosols, clouds, radiative fluxes, snow, ice, vegetation, ocean color, and land cover. Achieving sufficient satellite instrument accuracy, stability, and overlap to rigorously observe decadal change signals has proven very difficult in most cases and has not yet been achieved in others [2]. One of the earliest efforts to make climate quality observations was for Earth Radiation Budget: Nimbus 6/7 in the late 1970s, ERBE in the 1980s/90s, and CERES in 2000s are examples of the most complete global records. The recent CERES data products have carried out the most extensive intercomparisons because if the need to merge data from up to 11 instruments (CERES, MODIS, geostationary imagers) on 7 spacecraft (Terra, Aqua, and 5 geostationary) for any given month. In order to achieve climate calibration for cloud feedbacks, the radiative effect of clear-sky, all-sky, and cloud radiative effect must all be made with very high stability and accuracy. For shortwave solar reflected flux, even the 1% CERES broadband absolute accuracy (1-sigma confidence bound) is not sufficient to allow gaps in the radiation record for decadal climate change. Typical absolute accuracy for the best narrowband sensors like SeaWiFS, MISR, and MODIS range from 2 to 4% (1-sigma). IPCC greenhouse gas radiative forcing is approx. 0.6 W/sq m per decade or 0.6% of the global mean shortwave reflected flux, so that a 50% cloud feedback would change the global reflected flux by approx. 0.3 W/sq m or 0.3% per decade in broadband SW calibration change. Recent results comparing CERES reflected flux changes with MODIS, MISR, and SeaWiFS narrowband changes concluded that only SeaWiFS and CERES were approaching sufficient stability in calibration for decadal climate change [3]. Results using deep convective clouds in the optically thick limit as a stability target may prove very effective for improving past data sets like ISCCP. Results for intercalibration of geostationary imagers to CERES using an entire month of regional nearly coincident data demonstrates new approaches to constraining the calibration of current geostationary imagers. The new Decadal Survey Mission CLARREO is examining future approaches to a "NIST-in-Orbit" approach of very high absolute accuracy reference radiometers that cover the full solar and infrared spectrum at high spectral resolution but at low spatial resolution. Sampling studies have shown that a precessing CLARREO mission could calibrate other geo and leo reflected solar radiation and thermal infrared sensors.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗

Effect of gravity on methane-air combustion

Analytical and numerical techniques dealing with the theoretical description of the influence of zero and reduced gravitational acceleration on diffusion flames, with a view to improving understanding of fires in space vehicles, were developed in support of experimental work performed in this area. This was done in order to confirm qualitative understanding of the process, to determine the quantitative accuracy of numerical predictions, and to establish a mathematical model of the process for subsequent use as a predictive and exploratory tool. The following results were accomplished: (1) derivation of differential equations and boundary conditions describing the system, (2) details of the computations, using a FORTRAN computer program, for calculating the flow and heat and mass transfer in two dimensions (both steady and unsteady). It was shown that the experimental behavior can be reproduced with fair accuracy, provided that the time step is sufficiently short.

Elghobashi, S.↗

CFD Modeling of Turbulent Duct Flows for Coolant Channel Analysis

The design of modern liquid rocket engines requires the analysis of chamber coolant channels to maximize the heat transfer while minimizing the coolant flow. Coolant channels often do not remain at a constant cross section or at uniform curvature. New designs require higher aspect ratio coolant channels than previously used. To broaden the analysis capability and to complement standard analysis tools an investigation on the accuracy of CFD predictions for coolant channel flow has been initiated. Validation of CFD capabilities for coolant channel analysis will enhance the capabilities for optimizing design parameters without resorting to extensive experimental testing. The eventual goal is to use CFD to determine the flow fields of unique coolant channel designs and therefore determine critical heat transfer coefficients. In this presentation the accuracy of a particular CFD code is evaluated for turbulent flows. The first part of the presentation is a comparison of numerical results to existing cold flow data for square curved ducts (NASA CR-3367, 'Measurements of Laminar and Turbulent Flow in a Curved Duct with Thin Inlet Boundary Layers'). The results of this comparison show good agreement with the relatively coarse experimental data. The second part of the presentation compares two cases of higher aspect ratio channels (AR=2.5,10) to show changes in axial and secondary flow strength. These cases match experimental work presently in progress and will be used for future validation. The comparison shows increased secondary flow strength of the higher aspect ratio case due to the change in radius of curvature. The presentation includes a test case with a heated wall to demonstrate the program's capability. The presentation concludes with an outline of the procedure used to validate the CFD code for future design analysis.

Ungewitter, Ronald J.↗

Reduction of computer usage costs in predicting unsteady aerodynamic loadings caused by control surface motions: Analysis and results

Results of theoretical and numerical investigations conducted to develop economical computing procedures were applied to an existing computer program that predicts unsteady aerodynamic loadings caused by leading and trailing edge control surface motions in subsonic compressible flow. Large reductions in computing costs were achieved by removing the spanwise singularity of the downwash integrand and evaluating its effect separately in closed form. Additional reductions were obtained by modifying the incremental pressure term that account for downwash singularities at control surface edges. Accuracy of theoretical predictions of unsteady loading at high reduced frequencies was increased by applying new pressure expressions that exactly satisified the high frequency boundary conditions of an oscillating control surface. Comparative computer result indicated that the revised procedures provide more accurate predictions of unsteady loadings as well as providing reduction of 50 to 80 percent in computer usage costs.

Rowe, W. S.↗

Orbiter-orbiter and orbiter-lander tracking using same-beam interferometry

Two spacecraft orbiting Mars will subtend a small angle as viewed from Earth. This angle will usually be smaller than the beam width of a single radio antenna. Thus the two spacecraft may be tracked simultaneously by a single Earth-based antenna. The same-beam interferometry (SBI) technique involves using two widely separated antennas, each observing the two spacecraft, to produce a measurement of the angular separation of the two spacecraft in the plane of the sky. The information content of SBI data is thus complementary to the line-of-sight information provided by conventional Doppler data. The inclusion of SBI data with the Doppler data in a joint orbit estimation procedure can desensitize the solution to gravity mismodeling and result in improved orbit determination accuracy. This article presents an overview of the SBI technique, a measurement error analysis, and an error covariance analysis of some examples of the application of SBI to orbit determination. For hypothetical scenarios involving the Mars Observer and the Russian Mars '94 spacecraft, orbit determination accuracy improvements of up to an order of magnitude are predicted, relative to the accuracy that can be obtained by using only Doppler data acquired separately from each spacecraft. Relative tracking between a Mars orbiter and a lander fixed on the surface of Mars is also studied. Results indicate that the lander location may be determined to a few meters, while the orbiter ephemeris may be determined with accuracy similar to the orbiter-orbiter case.

Folkner, W. M.↗

Analyzing and Predicting Effort Associated with Finding and Fixing Software Faults

Context: Software developers spend a significant amount of time fixing faults. However, not many papers have addressed the actual effort needed to fix software faults. Objective: The objective of this paper is twofold: (1) analysis of the effort needed to fix software faults and how it was affected by several factors and (2) prediction of the level of fix implementation effort based on the information provided in software change requests. Method: The work is based on data related to 1200 failures, extracted from the change tracking system of a large NASA mission. The analysis includes descriptive and inferential statistics. Predictions are made using three supervised machine learning algorithms and three sampling techniques aimed at addressing the imbalanced data problem. Results: Our results show that (1) 83% of the total fix implementation effort was associated with only 20% of failures. (2) Both safety critical failures and post-release failures required three times more effort to fix compared to non-critical and pre-release counterparts, respectively. (3) Failures with fixes spread across multiple components or across multiple types of software artifacts required more effort. The spread across artifacts was more costly than spread across components. (4) Surprisingly, some types of faults associated with later life-cycle activities did not require significant effort. (5) The level of fix implementation effort was predicted with 73% overall accuracy using the original, imbalanced data. Using oversampling techniques improved the overall accuracy up to 77%. More importantly, oversampling significantly improved the prediction of the high level effort, from 31% to around 85%. Conclusions: This paper shows the importance of tying software failures to changes made to fix all associated faults, in one or more software components and/or in one or more software artifacts, and the benefit of studying how the spread of faults and other factors affect the fix implementation effort.

software fix implementation effort↗

Application of a Temperature-Dependent Load Prediction Method to a RUAG Six-Component Block-Type Balance

Temperature-dependent data of a RUAG six-component block-type balance was analyzed to assess the accuracy of two load prediction methods for temperature-dependent balance data. The supplied data was prepared for the analysis by splitting it into calibration and check load data subsets. The first calibration data subset was obtained at a temperature of 294 Kelvin. The second calibration data subset was obtained at a temperature of 315 Kelvin. A subset of 38 points was extracted from the second data set and used as check loads so that the accuracy of the two load prediction methods could be tested. First, the Iterative Method in combination with an extended independent and dependent variable set was used for the balance load prediction. This approach fits electrical outputs as a function of loads and the temperature and, afterwards, constructs a load iteration scheme from the regression coefficients so that loads can be predicted from outputs and the temperature during a wind tunnel test. The Non-Iterative Method was also used for the load prediction. This alternate method can more easily be implemented in a data system as loads are directly fitted as a function of electrical outputs and the temperature. Analysis results for the axial force are only discussed in the paper as similar results were obtained for the other five load components. Results for both methods clearly show that the cross-product term constructed from either a primary gage load or a primary gage output and the temperature explains the majority of the temperature-dependent part of the predicted balance load. This term models the temperature dependent nature of the gage sensitivity. Therefore, it is recommended to apply primary gage loadings at different temperatures during a balance calibration whenever temperature effects need to be described. These loadings will contain information about the temperature-dependent nature of the gage sensitivities that can be quantified by related cross-product terms in regression models of the data.

strain-gage balance↗

A model of the brightness of moonlight

In this paper, measurements of the sky brightness from the 2800-m level of Mauna Kea are reported. In addition, a model is presented for predicting the moonlight as a function of the moon's phase, the zenith distance of the moon, the zenith distance of the sky position, the angular separation of the moon and sky position, and the local extinction coefficient. The model equations can be quickly calculated on a pocket calculator. A comparison of the model with lunar data and with some Russian solar data shows the accuracy of the predictions to range from 8 percent to 23 percent.

Krisciunas, Kevin↗

Numerical simulations of three-dimensional rotor blade-vortex interactions

A numerical procedure which has been developed (Hassan and Charles, 1989) for the prediction of helicopter blade loads during self-generated blade-vortex interactions (BVI) is described. These BVIs result in significant and frequent impulsive changes in the rotor blade aerodynamic loads and moments that are known to lead to vibrations and severe noise problems. Potential BVIs are identified and tracked in time at even increments of rotor azimuth employing the lifting line helicopter/rotor trim code CAMRAD. The accuracy of the predicted leading edge pressures for self-generated interactions is shown to rely heavily on the user-specified vortex core radius, and more significantly on the CAMRAD-predicted geometry of the interaction vortex elements and their relative orientation with respect to the blade. Thus, the robustness of the surface transpiration approach for modeling subcritical-type BVIs is proven.

Hassan, A. A.↗

Thermostructural Qualification of PICA-D for NASA Planetary Science Missions

Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) has been used as the heatshield TPS material for many NASA planetary science missions. Due to a supply issue with the heritage Rayon fibers used in PICA fabrication, NASA started a project in 2017 to develop a sustainable replacement for PICA using a domestic fiber source, named PICA-D. This material has been selected as the heatshield TPS material for two upcoming NASA planetary science missions, Dragonfly mission to Titan and Mars Sample Retrieval Lander (SRL). While most PICA-D thermal and mechanical properties are very similar to PICA, early test data suggest that PICA-D is stiffer in tension in the in-plane (IP) direction, with higher strength but lower strain-to-failure. Preliminary thermostructural analysis using Finite Element Methods (FEM) tools predict IP compressive failure in the near-surface layers of PICA-D, for both Dragonfly and SRL flight environments. This talk provides an overview of the thermostructural qualification plans for PICA-D. A two-pronged approach is being pursued to demonstrate that the material and heatshield design has adequate capability for both SRL and Dragonfly design environments. The first part is to improve the accuracy of analytical predictions through a comprehensive characterization of PICA-D mechanical properties. The second, and more critical, part of the qualification approach is a subsystem-level test of PICA-D to demonstrate material capability under flight-relevant combined mechanical and thermal loads. The team is currently preparing for two test series in Sandia’s Solar Tower facility, scheduled in September 2023 and focusing on PICA-D acreage, followed by additional tests in the Solar Tower and LHMEL facilities focusing on design features and repair methods.

TPS↗

A model of the effect of the satellite photosheath on a double floating probe system

Description of a model developed to predict the interactions between multiple electrostatic probes separated by distances that are shorter than or comparable to the characteristic plasma shielding length. The computation involves crude approximations accounting for space charge effects, currents due to the emission and exchange of photoelectrons, and currents from the ambient plasma. Floating potentials are calculated by requiring current balance for each probe and solving by iterating the resulting coupled nonlinear equations. Although only qualitative accuracy is claimed, predictions using the model are found to be in good agreement with observations from the Explorer 45 satellite. The Explorer 45 satellite measures the potential difference between a pair of symmetrical spherical floating probes. The Explorer 45 data show that with increasing altitude, first, the sunward sphere will typically assume a more negative potential than the antisunward sphere; second, the polarities of the probes in the region L = 2 to 4 may switch, sometimes several times; and, finally, near the plasmapause the detector output may saturate, the sunward sphere being more negative.

Cauffman, D. P.↗

A critical comparison of turbulence models for homogeneous shear flows in a rotating frame

A variety of turbulence models, including five second-order closure models and four two equation models, are tested for the problem of homogeneous turbulent shear flow in a rotating frame. The model predictions for the time evolution of the turbulent kinetic energy and dissipation rate, as well as those for the equilibrium states, are compared with the results of physical and numerical experiments. Most of the two-equation models predict the same results for all rotation rates (omega/S) in which there is an exponential time growth of the turbulent kinetic energy and dissipation rate. The second-order closures are qualitatively superior since, consistent with physical and numerical experiments, they only predict this type of unstable flow for intermediate rotation rates in the range -0.1 less than or equal to omega/S less than or equal to 1.6. For rotation rates outside this range, there is an exchange of stabilities with a solution whose kinetic energy and dissipation rate decay with time. Although the second-order closures are superior to the two-equation models, there are still problems with the quantitative accuracy of their predictions.

Speziale, Charles G.↗