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Dakota A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis (V.6.14) (Theory Manual)

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 6.13 Theory Manual

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Theory Manual (V.6.15)

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 6.16 Theory Manual

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota’s iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Constraints on cosmic strings using data from the first Advanced LIGO observing run

Cosmic strings are topological defects which can be formed in grand unified theory scale phase transitions in the early universe. They are also suggested to form in the context of string theory. The main mechanism for a network of Nambu-Goto cosmic strings to lose energy is through the production of loops and the subsequent emission of gravitational waves, thus offering an experimental signature for the existence of cosmic strings. Here we report on the analysis conducted to specifically search for gravitational-wave bursts from cosmic string loops in the data of Advanced LIGO 2015-2016 observing run (O1). No evidence of such signals was found in the data, and as a result we set upper limits on the cosmic string parameters for three recent loop distribution models. Here, we initially derive constraints on the string tension G μ and the intercommutation probability, using not only the burst analysis performed on the O1 data set but also results from the previously published LIGO stochastic O1 analysis, pulsar timing arrays, cosmic microwave background and big-bang nucleosynthesis experiments. We show that these data sets are complementary in that they probe gravitational waves produced by cosmic string loops during very different epochs. Lastly, we determine that the data sets exclude large parts of the parameter space of the three loop distribution models we consider.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantitative Performance Assessment of Proxy Apps and Parents (Report for ECP Proxy App Project Milestone ADCD-504-28)

The ECP Proxy Application Project has an annual milestone to assess the state of ECP proxy applications and their role in the overall ECP ecosystem. Our FY22 March/April milestone (ADCD- 504-28) proposed to: Assess the fidelity of proxy applications compared to their respective parents in terms of kernel and I/O behavior, and predictability. Similarity techniques will be applied for quantitative comparison of proxy/parent kernel behavior. MACSio evaluation will continue and support for OpenPMD backends will be explored. The execution time predictability of proxy apps with respect to their parents will be explored through a carefully designed scaling study and code comparisons. Note that in this FY, we also have quantitative assessment milestones that are due in September and are, therefore, not included in the description above or in this report. Another report on these deliverables will be generated and submitted upon completion of these milestones. To satisfy this milestone, the following specific tasks were completed: Study the ability of MACSio to represent I/O workloads of adaptive mesh codes. Re-define the performance counter groups for contemporary Intel and IBM platforms to better match specific hardware components and to better align across platforms (make cross-platform comparison more accurate). Perform cosine similarity study based on the new performance counter groups on the Intel and IBM P9 platforms. Perform detailed analysis of performance counter data to accurately average and align the data to maintain phases across all executions and develop methods to reduce the set of collected performance counters used in cosine similarity analysis. Apply a quantitative similarity comparison between proxy and parent CPU kernels. Perform scaling studies to understand the accuracy of predictability of the parent performance using its respective proxy application. This report presents highlights of these efforts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Dark Siren Measurement of the Hubble Constant with the LIGO/Virgo Gravitational Wave Event GW190412 and DESI Galaxies

Abstract We present a measurement of the Hubble Constant H 0 using the gravitational wave event GW190412, an asymmetric binary black hole merger detected by LIGO/Virgo, as a dark standard siren. This event does not have an electromagnetic counterpart, so we use the statistical standard siren method and marginalize over potential host galaxies from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. GW190412 is well-localized to 12 deg 2 (90% credible interval), so it is promising for a dark siren analysis. The dark siren value for H 0 = 85.4 − 33.9 + 29.1 km s −1 Mpc −1 , with a posterior shape that is consistent with redshift overdensities. When combined with the bright standard siren measurement from GW170817 we recover H 0 = 77.96 − 5.03 + 23.0 km s −1 Mpc −1 , consistent with both early and late-time Universe measurements of H 0 . This work represents the first standard siren analysis performed with DESI data, and includes the most complete spectroscopic sample used in a dark siren analysis to date.

Ballard, W.↗

WE-D-204-06: An Open Source ImageJ CatPhan Analysis Tool

Purpose: The CatPhan is a popular QA device for assessing CT image quality. There are a number of software options which perform analysis of the CatPhan. However, there is often little ability for the user to adjust the analysis if it isn’t running properly, and these are all expensive options. An open source tool is an effective solution. Methods: To use the software, the user imports the CT as an image sequence in ImageJ. The user then scrolls to the slice with the lateral dots. The user then runs the plugin. If tolerance constraints are not already created, the user is prompted to enter them or to use generic tolerances. Upon completion of the analysis, the plugin calls pdfLaTex to compile the pdf report. There is a csv version of the report as well. A log of the results from all CatPhan scans is kept as a csv file. The user can use this to baseline the machine. Results: The tool is capable of detecting the orientation of the phantom. If the CatPhan was scanned backwards, one can simply flip the stack of images horizontally and proceed with the analysis. The analysis includes Sensitometry (estimating the effective beam energy), HU values and linearity, Low Contrast Visibility (using LDPE & Polystyrene), Contrast Scale, Geometric Accuracy, Slice Thickness Accuracy, Spatial resolution (giving the MTF using the line pairs as well as the point spread function), CNR, Low Contrast Detectability (including the raw data), Uniformity (including the Cupping Effect). Conclusion: This is a robust tool that analyzes more components of the CatPhan than other software options (with the exception of ImageOwl). It produces an elegant pdf and keeps a log of analyses for long-term tracking of the system. Because it is open source, users are able to customize any component of it.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

As-Run ATR Physics Evaluation for the UCF-1 HSIS Experiment

This Engineering Calculations and Analysis Report (ECAR) documents the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) detailed MCNP full core model physics analysis performed to support the irradiation of the University of Central Florida (UCF-1) Hydraulic Shuttle Irradiation System Experiment in the ATR B-7 position. The purpose of this analysis is to calculate: • The as-run neutron and gamma heating rates for the experiment components (W/g); • The as-run DPA for the experiment specimens after 20 (test train 1) and 2 (test train 2) days of irradiation in the ATR B-7 position (neutrons/cm2-sec); • The radionuclide source term after 2 days and 20 days of irradiation in the ATR B-7 position; • The decay heat associated with the UCF-1 radionuclide source term. These calculations were performed using the computer codes MCNP and ORIGEN2. The neutronics model, analysis details, and results are presented in the attached report.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Idaho National Laboratory’s Analysis of ARRA-Funded Plug-in Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure Projects: Final Report

Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC, managing and operating contractor for the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Idaho National Laboratory (INL), is the lead laboratory for U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA). INL’s conduct of the AVTA resulted in a significant base of knowledge and experience in the area of testing light-duty vehicles that reduced transportation-related petroleum consumption. Due to this experience, INL was tasked by DOE to develop agreements with companies that were the recipients of The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) grants, that would allow INL to collect raw data from light-duty vehicles and charging infrastructure. INL developed non-disclosure agreements (NDAs) with several companies and their partners that resulted in INL being able to receive raw data via server-to-server connections from the partner companies. This raw data allowed INL to independently conduct data quality checks, perform analysis, and report publicly to DOE, partners, and stakeholders, how drivers used both new vehicle technologies and the deployed charging infrastructure. The ultimate goal was not the deployment of vehicles and charging infrastructure, cut rather to create real-world laboratories of vehicles, charging infrastructure and drivers that would aid in the design of future electric drive transportation systems. The five projects that INL collected data from and their partners are: • ChargePoint America - Plug-in Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Demonstration • Chrysler Ram PHEV Pickup - Vehicle Demonstration • General Motors Chevrolet Volt - Vehicle Demonstration • The EV Project - Plug-in Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Demonstration • EPRI / Via Motors PHEVs – Vehicle Demonstration The document serves to benchmark the performance science involved the execution, analysis and reporting for the five above projects that provided lessons learned based on driver’s use of the vehicles and recharging decisions made. Data is reported for the use of more than 25,000 vehicles and charging units.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Confinement performance predictions for a high field axisymmetric tandem mirror

This paper presents a Hammir tandem mirror confinement performance analysis based on Realta Fusion’s first-of-a-kind model for axisymmetric magnetic mirror fusion performance. This model uses an integrated end plug simulation model including, heating, equilibrium and transport combined with a new formulation of the plasma operation contours (POPCONs) technique for the tandem mirror central cell. Using this model in concert with machine learning optimization techniques, it is shown that an end plug utilizing high temperature superconducting magnets and modern neutral beams enables a classical tandem mirror pilot plant producing a fusion gain Q > 5. The approach here represents an important advance in tandem mirror design. The high-fidelity end plug model enables calculations of heating and transport in the highly non-Maxwellian end plug to be made more accurately. The detailed end plug modelling performed in this work has highlighted the importance of classical radial transport and neutral beam absorption efficiency on end plug viability. The central cell POPCON technique allows consideration of a wide range of parameters in the relatively simple near-Maxwellian central cell, facilitating the selection of more optimal central cell plasmas. These advances make it possible to find more conservative classical tandem mirror fusion pilot plant operating points with lower temperatures, neutral beam energies and end plug performance requirements than designs in the literature. Despite being more conservative, it is shown that these operating points have sufficient confinement performance to serve as the basis of a viable fusion pilot plant provided that they can be stabilized against magnetohydrodynamic and trapped particle modes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Performance of an Astrophysical Radiation Hydrodynamics Code under Scalable Vector Extension Optimization

We present results of a performance study of an astrophysical radiation hydrodynamics code, V2D, on the Arm-based A64FX processor developed by Fujitsu. The code solves sparse linear systems, a task for which the A64FX architecture should be well suited. Here, we performed the performance analysis study on Ookami, an Apollo 80 platform utilizing the A64FX processor. We explored several compilers and performance anal-ysis packages and found the code did not perform as expected under scalable vector extension optimization, suggesting that a “deeper dive” into analyzing the code is worthwhile. However, a simple driver program that exercised basic sparse linear algebra routines used by V2D did show significant speedup with the use of the scalable vector extension optimization. We present the initial results from the study which used V2D on a relatively simple test problem that emphasized the repeated solution of sparse linear systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Neutron Activation and Thermoluminescent Detector Responses to a Bare Pulse of the CEA Valduc SILENE Critical Assembly

This benchmark experiment was conducted as a joint venture between the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the French Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique (CEA). Staff at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in the US and the Centre de Valduc in France planned this experiment. The experiment was conducted on October 11, 2010 in the SILENE critical assembly facility at Valduc. Several other organizations contributed to this experiment and the subsequent evaluation, including CEA Saclay, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), the Y-12 National Security Complex (NSC), Babcock International Group in the United Kingdom, and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The goal of this experiment was to measure neutron activation and thermoluminescent dosimeter (TLD) doses from a source similar to a fissile solution critical excursion. The resulting benchmark can be used for validation of computer codes and nuclear data libraries as required when performing analysis of criticality accident alarm systems (CAASs). A secondary goal of this experiment was to qualitatively test performance of two CAAS detectors similar to those currently and formerly in use in some US DOE facilities. The detectors tested were the CIDAS MkX and the Rocky Flats NCD-91. These detectors were being evaluated to determine whether they would alarm, so they were not expected to generate benchmark quality data.

Miller, Thomas Martin↗

Neutron Activation Foil and Thermoluminescent Dosimeter Responses to a Lead Reflected Pulse of the CEA Valduc SILENE Critical Assembly

This benchmark experiment was conducted as a joint venture between the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the French Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique (CEA). Staff at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in the US and the Centre de Valduc in France planned this experiment. The experiment was conducted on October 13, 2010 in the SILENE critical assembly facility at Valduc. Several other organizations contributed to this experiment and the subsequent evaluation, including CEA Saclay, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), the Y-12 National Security Complex (NSC), Babcock International Group in the United Kingdom, and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The goal of this experiment was to measure neutron activation and thermoluminescent dosimeter (TLD) doses from a source similar to a fissile solution critical excursion. The resulting benchmark can be used for validation of computer codes and nuclear data libraries as required when performing analysis of criticality accident alarm systems (CAASs). A secondary goal of this experiment was to qualitatively test performance of two CAAS detectors similar to those currently and formerly in use in some US DOE facilities. The detectors tested were the CIDAS MkX and the Rocky Flats NCD-91. The CIDAS detects gammas with a Geiger-Muller tube, and the Rocky Flats detects neutrons via charged particles produced in a thin 6 LiF disc, depositing energy in a Si solid-state detector. These detectors were being evaluated to determine whether they would alarm, so they were not expected to generate benchmark quality data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Neutron Activation Foil and Thermoluminescent Dosimeter Responses to a Polyethylene Reflected Pulse of the CEA Valduc SILENE Critical Assembly

This benchmark experiment was conducted as a joint venture between the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the French Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique (CEA). Staff at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in the US and the Centre de Valduc in France planned this experiment. The experiment was conducted on October 19, 2010 in the SILENE critical assembly facility at Valduc. Several other organizations contributed to this experiment and the subsequent evaluation, including CEA Saclay, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), the Y-12 National Security Complex (NSC), Babcock International Group in the United Kingdom, and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The goal of this experiment was to measure neutron activation and thermoluminescent dosimeter (TLD) doses from a source similar to a fissile solution critical excursion. The resulting benchmark can be used for validation of computer codes and nuclear data libraries as required when performing analysis of criticality accident alarm systems (CAASs). A secondary goal of this experiment was to qualitatively test performance of two CAAS detectors similar to those currently and formerly in use in some US DOE facilities. The detectors tested were the CIDAS MkX and the Rocky Flats NCD-91. The CIDAS detects gammas with a Geiger-Muller tube and the Rocky Flats detects neutrons via charged particles produced in a thin 6 LiF disc depositing energy in a Si solid state detector. These detectors were being evaluated to determine whether they would alarm, so they were not expected to generate benchmark quality data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Confinement performance predictions for a high field axisymmetric tandem mirror

This paper presents Hammir tandem mirror confinement performance analysis based on Realta Fusion's first-of-a-kind model for axisymmetric magnetic mirror fusion performance. This model uses an integrated end plug simulation model including, heating, equilibrium, and transport combined with a new formulation of the plasma operation contours (POPCONs) technique for the tandem mirror central cell. Using this model in concert with machine learning optimization techniques, it is shown that an end plug utilizing high temperature superconducting magnets and modern neutral beams enables a classical tandem mirror pilot plant producing a fusion gain Q > 5. The approach here represents an important advance in tandem mirror design. The high fidelity end plug model enables calculations of heating and transport in the highly non-Maxwellian end plug to be made more accurately. The detailed end plug modelling performed in this work has highlighted the importance of classical radial transport and neutral beam absorption efficiency on end plug viability. The central cell POPCON technique allows consideration of a wide range of parameters in the relatively simple near-Maxwellian central cell, facilitating the selection of more optimal central cell plasmas. These advances make it possible to find more conservative classical tandem mirror fusion pilot plant operating points with lower temperatures, neutral beam energies, and end plug performance requirements than designs in the literature. Despite being more conservative, it is shown that these operating points have sufficient confinement performance to serve as the basis of a viable fusion pilot plant provided that they can be stabilized against MHD and trapped particle modes.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

SU-F-J-20: Commissioning and Acceptance Testing of the C-Rad CatalystHD Surface Imaging System

Introduction: With the increasing use of surface-based, nonionizing image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) systems, a comprehensive set of clinical acceptance and commissioning procedures are needed to ensure correct functionality and proper clinical integration. Although TG-147 provides a specific set of parameters, measurement methodologies have yet to be described. The aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive overview of the commissioning and acceptance analysis performed for the C-Rad CatalystHD imaging system. Methods and Materials: Methodology for the commissioning and acceptance of the C-Rad CatalystHD imaging system was developed using commercially available clinical equipment. Following TG-147 guidelines, the following tests were performed: integration of peripheral equipment, system drift, static spatial reproducibility and localization accuracy, static end-to-end analysis, static rotational accuracy, dynamic spatial accuracy, dynamic temporal accuracy, dynamic radiation delivery and a comprehensive end-to-end analysis. Results: The field of view (FOV) of the CatalystHD was 105×109×83 cm3 in the lateral, longitudinal and vertical directions. For thermal equilibrium and system drift, a thermal drift of 1.0mm was noted. A 45 min warmup time is recommended if the system has been shut off an extended period of time (>24 hours) before the QA procedure to eliminate any thermal drift. Spatial reproducibility was found to be 0.05±0.03 mm using a rigid phantom. For the static localization accuracy, system agreement with couch shifts was within 0.1±0.1 mm and positioning agreement with kV-CBCT was 0.16±0.10 mm. For static rotational accuracy, system agreement with a high precision rotational stage (0.01 deg precision) was within 0.10±0.07 deg. Dynamic spatial and temporal localization accuracy was found to be within 0.2±0.1 mm. Conclusion: A comprehensive commissioning and acceptance study was performed using commercially available phantoms and in-house methodologies to provide a performance evaluation of the CatalystHD imaging system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Development of a Magnetic Microbead Affinity Selection Screen (MagMASS) Using Mass Spectrometry for Ligands to the Retinoid X Receptor-α

To overcome limiting factors in mass spectrometry-based screening methods such as automation while still facilitating the screening of complex mixtures such as botanical extracts, magnetic microbead affinity selection screening (MagMASS) was developed. The screening process involves immobilization of a target protein on a magnetic microbead using a variety of possible chemistries, incubation with mixtures of molecules containing possible ligands, a washing step that removes non-bound compounds while a magnetic field retains the beads in the microtiter well, and an organic solvent release step followed by LC-MS analysis. Using retinoid X receptor-α (RXRα) as an example, which is a nuclear receptor and target for anti-inflammation therapy as well as cancer treatment and prevention, a MagMASS assay was developed and compared with an existing screening assay, pulsed ultrafiltration (PUF)-MS. Optimization of MagMASS involved evaluation of multiple protein constructs and several magnetic bead immobilization chemistries. The full-length RXRα construct immobilized with amylose beads provided optimum results. Additional enhancements of MagMASS were the application of 96-well plates to enable automation, use of UHPLC instead of HPLC for faster MS analyses, and application of metabolomics software for faster, automated data analysis. Performance of MagMASS was demonstrated using mixtures of synthetic compounds and known ligands spiked into botanical extracts. .

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗