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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Solar Photovoltaic and Storage Supply Chains and Technology and Market Opportunities

This talk will highlight the most recent efforts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to track solar photovoltaic (PV) and storage supply and demand in the United States and globally, as well as bottom-up calculations of manufacturing costs for facilities across the globe. We will begin with an overview of the global solar PV supply chain and 2022 benchmark input data used for NREL's bottom-up crystalline silicon (c-Si) and thin film PV module manufacturing cost models. For the polysilicon, wafer, cell conversion, and module assembly steps of the c-Si supply chain, and for thin film modules, we will review the industry-collected input data and methods used for calculating the costs of goods sold (COGS); research and development (R&D) expenses; and sales, general, and business administration (S, G, and A) expenses. This 2022 benchmark analysis is compiled for state-of-the-art c-Si and thin film PV module manufacturing in several countries and regions; and will also include a quantified summary of the impacts of the manufacturing incentives and tax credits that are available for solar manufacturing and installations within the United States. Next generation technologies that lower PV manufacturing and installation costs, reduce operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses, and improve system energy yield will also be highlighted. We will conclude with projections of solar market penetration to 2050 from NREL's Solar Futures Study and Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) model, which includes solar coupled with lower-cost storage scenarios as well as the range of future cost scenarios for other power generation sources. We look forward to sharing NREL's extensive work in these areas and discussing ideas for future directions.

economics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Standards development for modules in high temperature micro-environments

Photovoltaic (PV) module qualification standards, IEC 61215 and IEC 61730, were designed to apply to “general open-air climates” and IEC 61730 specifically indicated applicability of ambient air temperature of 40°C. Additionally, these standards provided allowances for so-called “open rack mounted PV modules” without a clear definition of “open-rack.” These implied restrictions and allowances meant that hotter climates or thermally restrictive installation methods may not be covered by these often customer-mandated certification standards. This is particularly salient for the significant growth regions of the Middle East and India that would be expected to operate at significantly higher temperatures. The applicability of these documents raised issues over the definition of “open rack” and the fact that the geographic location is just as important as the mounting configuration in assessing the impact of the micro-environment of a PV module. This work summarizes the scientific background for IEC Technical Specification 63126:2020 ED1, titled “Guidelines for qualifying PV modules components and materials for operation at high temperatures.” This standard was recently published by the IEC and is the first step in a systematic effort to rework these standards to address the question of temperature more directly. Instead of specifying a mounting condition, we specify different suites of tests suitable for a system (PV module, mounting style, and location) defined by the 98th percentile cell temperature. With a defined temperature regime to work from, this allowed us to use existing literature research combined with additional modeling work to determine, which tests would need to be modified. This resulted in suggested changes to material thermal indices, thermal cycling temperatures, hot spot testing, ultraviolet testing, and bypass diode testing among other tests and characteristics described in this study.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

OpenDSS-wrapper (Distribution System Co-simulator with Distributed Energy Resource Controls)

Electric grid transformation with the proliferation of distributed energy resources (DER), such as solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, advanced energy storage technologies, and electric vehicles, and the growing use of communication technologies in both transmission and distribution systems are increasing the need to capture the interactions among these systems. Advanced modeling, control, and simulation tools that can perform co-simulation of electric power systems with other domains become indispensable to accurately model these interactions. To address this need, we have developed a codebase that integrates an electric power distribution system simulator, DER models, and DER controls. The codebase is based on OpenDSS, a distribution system simulator, and an existing open source co-simulation framework called HELICS. The contribution and uniqueness of the proposed codebase is that it tailors the generic HELICS framework specifically for distribution grid-related applications. The codebase includes an OpenDSS wrapper that controls the simulation, implements advanced DER controls, and extracts power flows, voltages, and other power system element information from the the distribution network modeled in OpenDSS. Sample HELICS federates, including a federate for OpenDSS, are provided that can communicate messages through the HELICS interface. Sample federates can be modified and additional HELICS federates can be added by the user depending on their use case requirements. SEE ALSO: https://github.com/NREL/dss-cosim

Blonsky, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rosario Strait Tidal Energy plus Energy Storage — Preliminary Economic Assessment

The Orcas Power and Light Co-op (OPALCO) is a non-profit utility that provides energy services to approximately 11,700 customers across 20 islands in San Juan County, Washington. OPALCO is developing a diverse set of local renewable energy resources to reduce dependence on mainland Washington State for energy and to reduce the regional need for fossil-fueled power. OPALCO’s load doubles in winter but solar production is roughly 20% of levels reached in summer periods. Tidal energy is strong year-round, night and day, and is predictable, requiring much less storage to firm it. To assess the technical and economic feasibility of tidal power, working in combination with multiple other distributed energy resources (DERs), Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) employed an optimization model to evaluate several economic benefits associated with varying scales of tidal power of between 2.4 and 9.6 megawatts (MW) and other DERs. In addition to existing photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage system (BESS) resources located on Decatur Island, Argonne also evaluated the addition of a BESS on southern Orcas Island with power and energy capacities ranging from 1-4 MW and 2-4 hours in storage duration.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

sdt (Solar Data Tools) [SWR-25-130]

Solar Data Tools (sdt) is an open-source Python library for analyzing PV power (and irradiance) time-series data. It was developed to enable analysis of unlabeled PV data, i.e. with no model, no meteorological data, and no performance index required, by taking a statistical signal processing approach in the algorithms used in the package’s main data processing pipeline. Solar Data Tools empowers PV system fleet owners or operators to analyze system performance a hundred times faster even when they only have access to the most basic data stream—power output of the system.

Meyers-Im, Bennet [National Laboratory of the Rock↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automating the Solar Interconnection Technical Evaluation Process: PREconfiguring and Controlling Inverter SEt-Points (PRECISE)

Utilities are receiving an increasing number of interconnection requests for distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems from their customers, requiring a solution to quickly and intelligently perform technical assessments of these requests and to manage these new renewable energy assets. In this paper, we present a stand-alone interconnection tool, PREconfiguring and Controlling Inverter SEt-points (PRECISETM), and how it overcomes the challenges of accelerating technical evaluations and leverages smart inverter functionality to provide local voltage support on an as-needed basis. The paper details the purpose and architecture of PRECISE, including tools, data source requirements, the model-based interconnection evaluation process, and technical results. PRECISE is an integrated software tool that customizes PV inverter settings for utilities by modeling and assessing impacts on local voltages and the need for advanced inverter functions (AIFs) (e.g., volt-VAR and volt-watt). PRECISE maximizes the use of readily available utility data sets to make fast online assessments of incoming PV interconnection requests and makes accept/reject recommendations along with custom settings for AIFs.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ice storage model-predictive control in an office building with PV: scenario, error and sensitivity analysis

Thermal energy storage (TES) can enable more building-sited renewable electricity generation and lower utility bill costs for buildings owners and occupants, especially when there are high demand and variable time-of-use (TOU) charges. A model predictive control (MPC) strategy can offer additional savings over a schedule-based control with added complexity and reliance on forecasts. Here, this study examines savings for medium office buildings with chiller plants in three locations with building-installed solar photovoltaics (PV) to understand the impact of MPC. Control setpoints are fixed by a schedule-based control or optimized by nonlinear MPC. These control setpoints are actuated within EnergyPlus building models to simulate the utility cost of the chiller plant. NLP solutions can be unstable or unrealistic, but our results show that by regularizing the NLP, the solutions can be reasonably followed by the building model. MPC models make simplifications that lead to errors once the controller is participating in and changing the operation of the building. These errors average 9 % across the cases, showing that the most important parts of the system are represented. The no-thermal load costs are computed to show that the optimization can in some cases achieve both the minimum TOU and minimum monthly demand costs by demand management while reducing TOU energy costs by energy arbitrage. The MPC saves 35–66 % in the annual chiller plant operating costs, which is an additional savings above the schedule by 1–33 %. PV and TES are complementary and mostly independent, but a load with PV often results in better performance for the schedule. Our case study and sensitivity analysis show the importance of modeling and optimization for complex rates, but also the circumstances wherein a simpler strategy achieves the same performance with less potential for error.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scaling Up CSP: How Long Will it Take?

Concentrating solar power (CSP) is one of the few scalable technologies capable of delivering dispatchable renewable power. Therefore, many expect it to shoulder a significant share of system balancing in a renewable electricity future powered by cheap, intermittent PV and wind power: the IEA, for example, projects 73 GW CSP by 2030 and several hundred GW by 2050 in its Net-Zero by 2050 pathway. In this paper, we assess how fast CSP can be expected to scale up and how long time it would take to get new, high-efficiency CSP technologies to market, based on observed trends and historical patterns. We find that to meaningfully contribute to net-zero pathways the CSP sector needs to reach and exceed the maximum historical annual growth rate of 30%/year last seen between 2010-2014 and maintain it for at least two decades. Any CSP deployment in the 2020s will rely mostly on mature existing technologies, namely parabolic trough and molten-salt towers, but likely with adapted business models such as hybrid CSP-PV stations, combining the advantages of higher-cost dispatchable and low-cost intermittent power. New third-generation CSP designs are unlikely to play a role in markets during the 2020s, as they are still at or before the pilot stage and, judging from past pilot-to-market cycles for CSP, they will likely not be ready for market deployment before 2030. CSP can contribute to low-cost zero-emission energy systems by 2050, but to make that happen, at the scale foreseen in current energy models, ambitious technology-specific policy support is necessary, as soon as possible and in several countries.

concentrated solar power↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogen Production System Scaling Using a High-Fidelity Simulation-Optimization Framework

Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers are widely used for hydrogen production, yet few validated, high-fidelity tools can reliably guide scale-up. Using measured performance from a 50-hour hardware-in-the-loop pilot test, a physics-based, plant-level model of a 1.25 MW PEM electrolyzer and its balance-of-plant (BoP) subsystems is developed and validated. The model couples electrochemistry and thermal/flow submodels and is calibrated against pilot test data via a genetic algorithm (GA) workflow. Validation yields a mean absolute percentage error (APE) of 0.43% for cell voltage and stack power. Two scale-out strategies are then benchmarked under a common 7-day wind-and-photovoltaic (PV) profile: (i) linear duplication of 1.25 MW blocks and (ii) shared-BoP architectures. Sharing BoP between stacks reduces BoP energy by 27% at 10 MW and 34% at 100 MW (vs. linear duplication) and improves system specific energy consumption (SEC) to 52.9 and 52.6 kWh/kg, respectively (from 54.0 kWh/kg with linear duplication). Partial-load studies (25-100% set-point) show that cumulative hydrogen production remains nearly constant down to 50% load because all cases use the same weekly renewable-energy input. Below 50%, the power cap limits how much energy can be used within 168 h, which reduces hydrogen output. The model further indicates that the practical operating optimum lies between 50% and 85% load, where efficiency gains begin to appear without significant loss in hydrogen output. Moreover, the efficiency gains at lower loads are offset by reduced production. The validated framework supports scenario-based engineering trade-off studies for large configurations (10-100 MW) and for operating policies under variable renewables.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reinforcement Learning to Enhance Optimal Operation of Resilient Community Energy Systems

This paper presents a novel model-free multi-agent Reinforcement Learning (RL) control method to enhance the resilience of community energy systems in island mode, which coordinates multiple objectives without the necessity of identifying system models that require expert knowledge. Specifically, a community-level coordinator agent is designed to allocate renewable energy resources among different buildings, and multiple building-level agents are developed to optimize load schedules based on limited energy resources and requirements of building loads and occupants’ comfort. In a two-day evaluation, our RL approach demonstrated a similar performance against MPC without requiring system models and formulation of optimization problems as required in MPC.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Split phase inverter data

The increase in power electronic based generation sources require accurate modeling of inverters. Accurate modeling requires experimental data over wider operation range. We used 8.35 kW off-the-shelf grid following split phase PV inverter in the experiments. We used controllable AC supply and controllable DC supply to emulate AC and DC side characteristics. The experiments were performed at NREL's Energy Systems Integration Facility. Inverter is tested under 100%, 75%, 50%, 25% load conditions. In the first dataset, for each operating condition, controllable AC source voltage is varied from 0.9 to 1.1 per unit (p.u) with a step value of 0.025 p.u while keeping the frequency at 60 Hz. In the second dataset, under similar load conditions (100%, 75%, 50%, 25% ), the frequency of the controllable AC source voltage was varied from 59 Hz to 61 Hz with a step value of 0.2 Hz. Voltage and frequency range is chosen based on inverter protection. Voltages and currents on DC and AC side are included in the dataset.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Techno-economic Analysis of Novel PV Plant Designs for Extreme Cost Reductions

A techno-economic analysis is underway examining the cost and performance of future large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plant components, including bifacial modules, tandem modules, increased plant voltage architectures, and module-level power electronics. Integration of these components into PV plant designs is compared with current PV technologies based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Baseline models are developed and validated against recorded PV plant performance data. Expected cost and performance data of future PV technologies are incorporated into the baseline models. An evolutionary algorithm is utilized to optimize PV plant configuration, technology combination, and LCOE. Furthermore, this paper focuses on the bifacial module analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Water and Climate Impacts on ERCOT Long-Term Systems Assessment

Water and climate change pose many potential challenges to the electric power system. Substantial water is withdrawn every day to support thermoelectric power generating unit operations, and changes to water supply have the potential to affect generation dispatch. Climate change can accelerate growing demand for electricity, which can necessitate additional generating capacity, often in locations with limited water supply. Drought conditions also threaten thermoelectric power plant operations due to streamflow and reservoir levels dropping below intake structures, or water temperatures exceeding a power plants' permitted operating conditions. Here we explore how future climate change might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning in Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) using a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on the future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation for four future climate projections. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated for these scenarios. These climate impacts are applied to five alternative electricity futures in an electricity capacity expansion model that projects future generation and transmission capacity additions in ERCOT. Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on future generation and transmission capacity needs, with temperature-driven increases in peak and average load resulting in 5-15 GW additional generating capacity and up to 1 GW additional transmission capacity. Additional capacity is a diverse mix of PV, natural gas, and wind, depending on the makeup of economic, policy and technology assumptions. Climate impacts increase total system costs 2-5%, while the marginal cost of energy and emissions are not affected substantially by climate change effects.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Generalized Copula-Polynomial Chaos Expansion for Probabilistic Power Flow Considering Nonlinear Correlations of PV Injections

This paper develops a generalized Copula-polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) framework for power system probabilistic power flow that can handle both linear and nonlinear correlations of uncertain power injections, such as wind and PVs. A data-driven Copula statistical model is used to capture the correlations of uncertain power injections. This allows us to resort to the Rosenblatt transformation to transform correlated variables into independent ones while preserving the dependence structure. This paves the way of leveraging the PCE for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification of power flow results, i.e., achieving the probabilistic distributions of power flows. Simulations carried out on the IEEE 57-bus system show that the proposed framework can get much more accurate results than other alternatives with different linear and nonlinear power injection correlations.

copula↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-agent voltage control in distribution systems using GAN-DRL-based approach

Active distribution grids can experience voltage fluctuations and violations due to the high penetration of variable distributed energy resources (DERs). These problems might occur because of the uncertain and variable generation natures of these resources, especially solar photovoltaic resources, during panel shadowing scenarios. Volt-VAR control (VVC) is an efficient method that controls the reactive power set-points of the inverters to regulate the voltage of distribution grids. Although several VVC approaches have been proposed recently, the performance of these approaches degrades significantly if behind-the-meter solar generation data are unobservable/missing. Therefore, it is necessary to impute missing/unobservable PV data accurately to be utilized in VVC approaches. Further, this paper proposes a model-free, data-driven, centrally trained, and decentrally executed multi-agent deep reinforcement learning-based VVC architecture to regulate the voltage of distribution networks. A generative adversarial network (GAN) is incorporated to impute the unobservable PV data accurately, which improves the performance of the proposed control architecture. The proposed multi-agent-soft-actor–critic algorithm (MASAC)-based VVC technique utilizes the actual PV dataset as well as the imputed dataset from the GAN framework to learn the optimal coordinated control policy for controlling the optimal reactive power set-points of PV inverters. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is analyzed on a modified IEEE 34-bus test case with added PV inverters. The results are compared and analyzed with a base case model with no VVC and VVC with a local droop control approach, genetic algorithm optimization, and a centralized soft actor–critic-based approach. Moreover, the performance of the proposed approach is compared with that of a multi-agent VVC framework without using the PV generation data and load information as the system state. The results illustrate that the proposed method with more state input improves the voltage profile and reduces the power loss of the network across various loading and PV generation scenarios.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

PV inverter experimental data

The increase in power electronic based generation sources require accurate modeling of inverters. Accurate modeling requires experimental data over wider operation range. We used 20 kW off-the-shelf grid following PV inverter in the experiments. We used controllable AC supply and controllable DC supply to emulate AC and DC side characteristics. The experiments were performed at NREL's Energy Systems Integration Facility. Due to the limitations of the DC supply used, inverter is tested under 75%, 50%, 25% load conditions (This dataset does not contain 100% load condition). In the first dataset, for each operating condition, controllable AC source voltage is varied from 0.88 to 1.09 per unit (p.u) with a step value of 0.025 p.u while keeping the frequency at 60 Hz. In the second dataset, under similar load conditions (75%, 50%, 25% ), the frequency of the controllable AC source voltage was varied from 59.4 Hz to 60.45 Hz with a step value of 0.2 Hz. Voltage and frequency range is chosen based on inverter protection. Voltages and currents on DC and AC side are included in the dataset.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fortalecimiento de la Electrificación Rural en Honduras: Una Evaluación Integrada de PV+BESS y Usos Productivos de la Electricidad en Gracias a Dios, Honduras [Empowering Rural Electrification in Honduras: An Integrated Assessment of PV/BESS and Productive Uses of Electricity in Gracias a Dios] (Spanish Translation)

Honduras faces significant challenges in its energy sector, particularly in rural areas where access to reliable and affordable electricity remains limited. The flagship rural electrification initiative for Honduras Secretary of Energy (SEN) is the Politica de Acceso Universal a la Electricidad (PAUEH - Universal Electricity Access Policy), a key solution for addressing this energy poverty is the deployment of more than 1700 distributed solar and hybrid mini-grid solutions. In late 2023 as a first step towards supporting SEN's electrification efforts, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a literature review of SEN electrification policy documents and conducted a series of technical capacity-building workshops with SEN and other energy sector stakeholders in Honduras focused on using NREL's open-source REopt tool to conduct techno-economic assessments and develop least-cost optimizations for potential solar + storage mini-grid systems. Building on some initial capacity building on mini-grid modeling, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) worked with SEN to develop a detailed techno-economic assessment for electrifying two schools, a healthcare clinic, and a hospital in a hypothetical community within the department of Gracias a Dios. The analysis also evaluates the business case for cold storage productive use of energy (PUE) applications for the fisheries value chain and how the incorporation of these PUE loads potentially impacts both the viability of the PV+BESS solutions as well as local economic development. By assessing the potential for deployment of integrated PV/BESS systems to both support critical community services like education and healthcare, as well as potential for downstream enterprise and economic development, this analysis represents a first step that can help to inform specific strategies for development of pilot PV+BESS projects aligned with national priorities and sector level planning under PAUEH. This is the Spanish translation of NREL/TP-7A40-90865.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗