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At least 487 records · Page 27

Demonstration of Magnetron as an Alternative RF Source for SRF Accelerators

Magnetron has been considered as alternate high-efficiency, low-cost RF sources for linacs and storage rings [1] for national labs and industrial applications. After the demonstration of magnetrons power to drive and combine for a radio frequency cavity at 2450 MHz in CW mode, we have used trim coils adding to a water-cooled magnetron and amplitude modulation feedback to further suppress the side-band noise to -46.7 dBc level. We also demonstrated the phase-locking to an industrial grade cooking magnetron transmitter at 915 MHz with a 75 kW CW power delivered to a water load by using a -26.6 dBc injection signal [2]. The sideband noise from the 3-Phase SCRs DC power supply can be reduced to -16.2 dBc level. Further noise reduction and their power combining scheme using magic-tee and cavity type combiners for higher power application (2x75kW) are to be presented. We intent to use one power station to drive the normal conducting and superconducting RF cavities for the inductrial linac. We also going to demonstarte a vertical SRF cavity test with a high input coupling Q using a 2.45GHz magnetron and comparing with a baseline test result using a solid state amplifier.

Wang, H.↗

Integrated modeling of cracking during deep penetration laser welding of nickel alloys

During deep penetration laser welding of nickel alloys, interactions between composition and processing conditions can lead to the formation of defects. Inconel 740H, for example, has demonstrated a susceptibility to horizontal fusion zone cracking at locations between 70% and 80% of the weld depth during laser welding at powers above 5 kW. Coupling three-dimensional heat transfer, fluid flow, and stress modeling tools allowed that both the strain rate and stress normal to the solidification direction to be calculated. In the Inconel 740H welds, cracks formed at locations where the strain rate and stress simultaneously reached critical levels. No cracking was observed in the Inconel 690 welds, since the strain rate and stress did not simultaneously reach these critical levels.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Effect of Normal Stress Oscillations on Fault Slip Behavior Near the Stability Transition From Stable to Unstable Motion

Tectonic fault zones are subject to normal stress variations with a wide range of spatio-temporal scales. Stress perturbations cover a wide range of frequencies and amplitudes from high frequency seismic waves generated by earthquakes to low frequency transients associated with solid Earth tides. These perturbations can reactivate critically stressed faults and trigger earthquakes. Here, we describe lab experiments to illuminate the physics of such changes in friction and the mechanics of earthquake triggering and fault reactivation. Friction tests were done in a double direct shear configuration for conditions near the stability transition from stable to unstable motion. We studied simulated fault gouge composed of quartz powder and conducted experiments at reference normal stress from 10 to 13.5 MPa. After shearing to steady state sliding, we applied sinusoidal normal stress oscillations of amplitude 0.5–2 MPa, and period of 0.5–50 s. We performed numerical simulations using measured values of rate and state friction (RSF) parameters to assess our data. Our results show that low frequency stress oscillations cause a Coulomb-like response of shear strength that transitions from stable slip to slow lab earthquakes as frequency increases. At the critical frequency predicted by RSF we observe periodic stick-slip behavior. Perturbations of high amplitude and short period weaken the fault, while lower amplitudes strengthen the fault. We find that a modified RSF formulation is able to accurately match our laboratory data. Our findings highlight the complex effects of stress perturbations on fault strength and the mode of fault slip.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A new woven composite constitutive model validated by shock wave experiments

In this paper, we present results of plate impact simulations of shock compressed woven glass fiber-reinforced plastic (GRP) performed using the Arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian three-dimensional finite element code. A hyperelastic large-strain-based empirical Continuum Damage Mechanics (CDM) formulation is employed to describe damage initiation and growth in the shock-compressed GRP. The model parameters calibration scheme utilizes the Velocity Interferometer System for Any Reflector normal particle velocity measurements at the free surface of the GRP target plates. The impact velocity in the experiments ranged from 8.5 to 418 m/s. The finite element model considered planar 0°/90° bidirectional plies with an individual ply thickness of 0.68 mm, stacked to reach a total laminate thickness of 6.8 mm. The anisotropic elastic strains were estimated from the experimentally determined tetragonal symmetry stiffness matrix for the GRP. The strain-based damage model captures several salient features observed in the measured free surface particle wave profiles, including the shock rise time, onset of Elastic—Elastic Cracking, and the shape of the nonlinear portion of the experimental particle velocity profiles. Furthermore, the CDM model predicts the dominant damage mode to be matrix microcracking due to shear and the associated bulk expansion (bulking) under the global compressive loading in the plate impact configuration.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The fluctuation–dissipation measurement instrument at the Linac Coherent Light Source

The development of new modes at x-ray free electron lasers has inspired novel methods for studying fluctuations at different energies and timescales. For closely spaced x-ray pulses that can be varied on ultrafast time scales, we have constructed a pair of advanced instruments to conduct studies targeting quantum materials. We first describe a prototype instrument built to test the proof-of-principle of resonant magnetic scattering using ultrafast pulse pairs. This is followed by a description of a new endstation, the so-called fluctuation–dissipation measurement instrument, which was used to carry out studies with a fast area detector. In addition, we describe various types of diagnostics for single-shot contrast measurements, which can be used to normalize data on a pulse-by-pulse basis and calibrate pulse amplitude ratios, both of which are important for the study of fluctuations in materials. Furthermore, we present some new results using the instrument that demonstrates access to higher momentum resolution.

Assefa, T. A.↗

Transport and stability in sustained high q min , high β N discharges on DIII-D

Abstract To address the needs for a fusion pilot plan design, DIII-D/EAST joint experiments on DIII-D have demonstrated high normalized beta β N ∼ 4.2, toroidal beta β T ∼ 3.3% with q min > 2, q 95 ⩽ 8 sustained for more than six energy confinement times in high poloidal beta regime. The excellent energy confinement quality ( H 98y2 ∼ 1.8) is achieved with an internal transport barrier at high line-averaged Greenwald density fraction f Gr > 0.9. The trapped gyro-Landau fluid (TGLF) modeling of the transport characteristics shows that the beam-driven rotation does not play an important role in the high confinement quality. The modeling also captures very well several transport features, giving us confidence in using integrated modeling to project these experimental results to future machines. The high-performance phase is terminated by fast-growing modes triggered near the n = 1 ideal-wall kink stability limit. New radio frequency (RF) capabilities for off-axis current drive could remove the residual ohmic current to achieve a fully non-inductive state, and improve the mode–wall coupling to increase the ideal-wall β N limit, enabling sustainment of the fully non-inductive high performance plasma in stationary conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Measurement of neutrino oscillations using neutrino and antineutrino beams in the NOvA experiment

NOvA is a long-baseline accelerator neutrino oscillation experiment using the NuMIneutrino beam from Fermilab. Its main physics goals are to probe the 3-flavour oscillationparameters: neutrino mass hierarchy, CP-violating phase dcp and octant of .23 mixingangle by observing electron neutrino appearance and muon neutrino disappearance. Twofunctionally identical detectors are placed off-axis from the centre of the NuMI beam.The near detector at Fermilab is 100 m underground, and the far detector is locatedon the surface at Ash River, 810 km away from the beam source. The initial neutrinobeam spectra are measured using the near detector data and the oscillation parametersare extracted by fitting the observed data to the predicted neutrino spectrum in the fardetector.This thesis is centered around how to improve the sensitivity of |.m232| and .23 measurementsin the muon neutrino disappearance analysis. NOvA will take data for about12 years. The operation of the NOvA experiment for each year costs tens of millions ofdollars, thus it is valuable to maximise the sensitivity of the analysis. Three samples ofmuon neutrino events are studied in this thesis to improve the analysis sensitivities. First,higher energy muon neutrinos are investigated by extending the energy range in NOvA’scurrent standard analysis. Second, for the sample of events used in NOvA’s existing analysis,a new energy estimator which has been developed to improve the neutrino energy resolution is considered. Furthermore, in addition to binning the events as function ofenergy and hadronic energy fraction, three particle identifiers are introduced to separateneutrino events by signal purity to reduce the effects from backgrounds. Third, an additionallower purity sample of muon neutrino charged current (CC) events that look similarto neutral current events and have not been included in NOvA’s existing analyses havebeen studied.This thesis reanalyses NOvA’s data used in the 2020 analysis, corresponding to anexposure of 13.60×1020 protons on target (POT) in the neutrino beam mode recordedfrom February 6, 2014 to March 20, 2020, and 12.50×1020 protons on target in theantineutrino beam mode recorded between June 29, 2016 to February 26, 2019. Thisthesis has implemented a fit to Asimov fake data, generated where sin2 .23 = 0.59 and.m232 = 2.5 × 10-3 eV2. These sensitivity studies show that the uncertainty range of|.m232| at 1 s in the new analysis is reduced by 5.5% and the significance of maximaldisappearance rejection improves by 7.7%, compared to the standard analysis. This isequivalent to adding 11-16% more data. The best fit values of the oscillation parametersfrom fitting to the far detector (FD) data with the new analysis are found to besin2 .23 = 0.568+0.025-0.043 (sin2 .23 = 0.454+0.046-0.026) and .m232 = 2.399+0.055-0.070 × 10-3 eV2 (.m232= -2.427+0.055-0.067 × 10-3 eV2) for the normal (inverted) hierarchy. The difference in thebest fit for sin2 .23 (.m232) between the new analysis and NOvA’s 2020 analysis is around2% (1.4%). The uncertainty range at 1 s for .m232 decrease by 8% (4%) for the normalhierarchy (inverted hierarchy) compared to the standard analysis. The uncertainty rangefor sin2 .23 is close to the standard analysis. This thesis also implements the fit from combiningelectron neutrino appearance and muon neutrino disappearance. The combinedanalysis shows that the best fit values are very close to the standard analysis. However,the uncertainty range of .m232 at 1 s is reduced by 3.7% using the new analysis. The maximaldisappearance significance is not improved in the new analysis, but the new analysisslightly improves the rejection of the disfavoured octant.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Methodology to Evaluate the Grid Reliability Impact of Oscillations Induced by Large Loads

The rapid growth of hyperscale AI data centers is bringing renewed attention to the reliability risk that sustained forced oscillations pose to bulk power systems, with cyclic computational workloads emerging as a new forcing source. Unlike the broadband, stochastic disturbances from traditional industrial loads such as arc furnaces, AI training and inference facilities can inject large active power swings concentrated at specific frequencies over extended durations - characteristics that existing grid planning practices do not account for. While the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has recognized this gap and called for system-level studies of large load interconnections, no standardized methodology exists to screen, simulate, and quantify these risks at the planning stage. This report presents the Risk Assessment Tool for Large Load-induced Events (RATLLE), a Python-based, publicly available script suite developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate bulk power system reliability risks from data center-induced oscillations. RATLLE implements a three-module workflow: a screening module that identifies vulnerable interconnection locations and excitable system modes; a simulation module that models cyclic data center load behavior using a commercial positive sequence simulation platform; and an analysis module that computes risk metrics and generates interactive visualization dashboards. The risk metrics, formulated around simulation observables, map oscillation impacts to a three-stage severity scale spanning latent equipment fatigue through imminent cascading failure. The methodology is demonstrated on two Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system models: a publicly available 240-bus reduced representation and a detailed 2031 Heavy Winter planning case. Case studies illustrate that even modest 50 MW forced oscillations at resonant frequencies can produce wide-area power swings, N-1 security constraint violations, and cascading generator trips through protection actions - outcomes that would not occur under normal operating conditions without oscillations present. The results underscore the need for standardized oscillation impact assessment in large load interconnection studies and provide a reproducible, extensible framework for utilities to adopt or customize within their existing planning workflows.

Biswas, Shuchismita↗

Exploring ENSO-Induced Anomalies over North America in Historical and Future Climate Simulations That Use HadGEM2-ESM Output to Drive WRF

Projected changes to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate mode have been explored using global Earth system models (ESMs). Regional expressions of such changes have yet to be fully advanced and may require the use of regional downscaling. Here, we employ regional climate modeling (RCM) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at convection-permitting resolution and nested in output from the HadGEM2 ESM. We quantify ENSO teleconnections to temperature and precipitation anomalies in historical and future climate scenarios over eastern North America. Two paired simulations are run, a strong El Niño (positive ENSO phase) and a weak La Niña (negative ENSO phase), for the historical and future years. The HadGEM2 direct output and HadGEM2-WRF simulation output are compared to the anomalies derived from the NOAA ENSO Climate Normals dataset. The near-surface temperature and precipitation differences by ENSO phase, as represented by the HadGEM2-WRF historical simulations, show a poor degree of association with the NOAA ENSO Climate Normals, in part because of the large biases in the HadGEM2 model. Downscaling with the WRF model does improve the agreement with the observations, and large discrepancies remain. The model chain HadGEM2-WRF reverses the sign of the ENSO phase response over eastern North America under simulations of the future climate with high greenhouse gas forcing, but due to the poor agreement with the NOAA ENSO Climate Normals it is difficult to assign confidence to this prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Proton decay: flipped vs. unflipped SU(5)

We analyze nucleon decay modes in a no-scale supersymmetric flipped SU(5) GUT model, and contrast them with the predictions for proton decays via dimension-6 operators in a standard unflipped supersymmetric SU(5) GUT model. We find that these GUT models make very different predictions for the ratios Γ(p → π 0 µ + )/Γ(p → π 0 e + ), Γ(p → π + ν - )/Γ(p → π 0 e + ), Γ(p → K 0 e + )/Γ(p → π 0 e + ) and Γ(p → K 0 µ + )/Γ(p → π 0 µ + ), and that predictions for the ratios Γ(p → π 0 µ + )/Γ(p → π 0 e + ) and Γ(p → π + ν - )/Γ(p → π 0 e + ) also differ in variants of the flipped SU(5) model with normal- or inverse-ordered light neutrino masses. Upcoming large neutrino experiments may have interesting opportunities to explore both GUT and flavour physics in proton and neutron decays.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters from the T2K experiment using $$3.6\times 10^{21}$$ protons on target

Abstract The T2K experiment presents new measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters using $$19.7(16.3)\times 10^{20}$$ 19.7 ( 16.3 ) × 10 20 protons on target (POT) in (anti-)neutrino mode at the far detector (FD). Compared to the previous analysis, an additional $$4.7\times 10^{20}$$ 4.7 × 10 20 POT neutrino data was collected at the FD. Significant improvements were made to the analysis methodology, with the near-detector analysis introducing new selections and using more than double the data. Additionally, this is the first T2K oscillation analysis to use NA61/SHINE data on a replica of the T2K target to tune the neutrino flux model, and the neutrino interaction model was improved to include new nuclear effects and calculations. Frequentist and Bayesian analyses are presented, including results on $$\sin ^2\theta _{13}$$ sin 2 θ 13 and the impact of priors on the $$\delta _{\textrm{CP}}$$ δ CP measurement. Both analyses prefer the normal mass ordering and upper octant of $$\sin ^2\theta _{23}$$ sin 2 θ 23 with a nearly maximally CP-violating phase. Assuming the normal ordering and using the constraint on $$\sin ^2\theta _{13}$$ sin 2 θ 13 from reactors, $$\sin ^2\theta _{23}=0.561^{+0.021}_{-0.032}$$ sin 2 θ 23 = 0 . 561 - 0.032 + 0.021 using Feldman–Cousins corrected intervals, and $$\varDelta {}m^2_{32}=2.494_{-0.058}^{+0.041}\times 10^{-3}~\text {eV}^2$$ Δ m 32 2 = 2 . 494 - 0.058 + 0.041 × 10 - 3 eV 2 using constant $$\varDelta \chi ^{2}$$ Δ χ 2 intervals. The CP-violating phase is constrained to $$\delta _{\textrm{CP}}=-1.97_{-0.70}^{+0.97}$$ δ CP = - 1 . 97 - 0.70 + 0.97 using Feldman–Cousins corrected intervals, and $$\delta _{\textrm{CP}}=0,\pi $$ δ CP = 0 , π is excluded at more than 90% confidence level. A Jarlskog invariant of zero is excluded at more than $$2\sigma $$ 2 σ credible level using a flat prior in $$\delta _{\textrm{CP}},$$ δ CP , and just below $$2\sigma $$ 2 σ using a flat prior in $$\sin \delta _{\textrm{CP}}.$$ sin δ CP . When the external constraint on $$\sin ^2\theta _{13}$$ sin 2 θ 13 is removed, $$\sin ^2\theta _{13}=28.0^{+2.8}_{-6.5}\times 10^{-3},$$ sin 2 θ 13 = 28 . 0 - 6.5 + 2.8 × 10 - 3 , in agreement with measurements from reactor experiments. These results are consistent with previous T2K analyses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Characterization of the Emissions and Crystalline Silica Content of Airborne Dust Generated from Grinding Natural and Engineered Stones

Abstract In this study, we systematically characterized the airborne dust generated from grinding engineered and natural stone products using a laboratory testing system designed and operated to collect representative respirable dust samples. Four stone samples tested included two engineered stones consisting of crystalline silica in a polyester resin matrix (formulations differed with Stones A having up to 90wt% crystalline silica and Stone B up to 50wt% crystalline silica), an engineered stone consisting of recycled glass in a cement matrix (Stone C), and a granite. Aerosol samples were collected by respirable dust samplers, total dust samplers, and a Micro-Orifice Uniform Deposit Impactor. Aerosol samples were analyzed by gravimetric analysis and x-ray diffraction to determine dust generation rates, crystalline silica generation rates, and crystalline silica content. Additionally, bulk dust settled on the floor of the testing system was analyzed for crystalline silica content. Real-time particle size distributions were measured using an Aerodynamic Particle Sizer. All stone types generated similar trimodal lognormal number-weighted particle size distributions during grinding with the most prominent mode at an aerodynamic diameter of about 2.0-2.3 μm, suggesting dust formation from grinding different stones is similar. Bulk dust from Stone C contained no crystalline silica. Bulk dust from Stone A, Stone B, and granite contained 60, 23, and 30wt% crystalline silica, respectively. In Stones A and B, the cristobalite form of crystalline silica was more plentiful than the quartz form. Only the quartz form was detected in granite. The bulk dust, respirable dust, and total dust for each stone had comparable amounts of crystalline silica, suggesting that crystalline silica content in the bulk dust could be representative of that in respirable dust generated during grinding. Granite generated more dust per unit volume of material removed than the engineered stones, which all had similar normalized dust generation rates. Stone A had the highest normalized generation rates of crystalline silica, followed by granite, Stone B, and Stone C (no crystalline silica), which likely leads to the same trend of respirable crystalline silica (RCS) exposure when working with these different stones. Manufacturing and adoption of engineered stone products with formulations such as Stone B or Stone C could potentially lower or eliminate RCS exposure risks. Combining all the effects of dust generation rate, size-dependent silica content, and respirable fraction, the highest normalized generation rate of RCS consistently occurs at 3.2-5.6 µm for all the stones containing crystalline silica. Therefore, removing particles in this size range near the generation sources should be prioritized when developing engineering control measures.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗

Control of second-harmonic generation in all-dielectric intersubband metasurfaces by controlling the polarity of χ (2)

All-dielectric metasurfaces have recently led to a paradigm shift in nonlinear optics as they allow for circumventing the phase matching constraints of bulk crystals and offer high nonlinear conversion efficiencies when normalized by the light-matter interaction volume. Unlike bulk crystals, in all-dielectric metasurfaces nonlinear conversion efficiencies primarily rely on the material nonlinearity, field enhancements, and the modal overlaps, therefore most efforts to date have only focused on utilizing these degrees of freedom. In this work, we demonstrate that for second-harmonic generation in all-dielectric metasurfaces, an additional degree of freedom is the control of the polarity of the nonlinear susceptibility. We demonstrate that semiconductor heterostructures that support resonant nonlinearities based on quantum-engineered intersubband transitions provide this new degree of freedom. We can flip and control the polarity of the nonlinear susceptibility of the dielectric medium along the growth direction and couple it to the Mie-type photonic modes. Here we demonstrate that engineering the χ (2) polarity in the meta-atom enables the control of the second-harmonic radiation pattern and conversion efficiency. Our results therefore open a new direction for engineering and optimizing second-harmonic generation using all-dielectric intersubband nonlinear metasurfaces.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Mean-field equation for phase-modulated optical parametric oscillator

The widely established techniques for the generation of ultrashort optical pulses rely on passive mode locking of lasers, with the output pulse duration and emission spectrum determined by the intrinsic lifetime of laser transition in the gain medium. Due to the instantaneous nature of nonlinear gain, optical parametric oscillators (OPOs) are capable of generating optical radiation in all timescales from continuous-wave (cw) to ultrashort femtosecond regime, if driven by laser pump sources in the corresponding time domain. In the ultrashort timescale, operation of OPOs conventionally relies on mode-locked pump lasers, with the concomitant disadvantages of large footprint and high cost. At the same time, the lack of gain storage mandates the use of synchronous pumping, resulting in increased complexity. In this paper, we present the concept of phase-modulated OPO driven by cw pump laser. The approach overcomes the traditional drawbacks of ultrafast OPOs, enabling femtosecond pulse generation without the need for synchronous pumping, resulting in a simplified, compact, and cost-effective architecture using cw input pump lasers. We derive a mean-field equation for a degenerate χ ( 2 ) OPO driven by a cw laser with intracavity electro-optic modulator (EOM), and also including dispersion compensation. The equation predicts the formation of stable femtosecond pulses ( < 200 fs ) , in both normal and anomalous dispersion regimes, with a controllable repetition rate determined by the frequency of the EOM. The remarkable functionality of the proposed scheme paves the way for the development of an alternative class of widely tunable coherent femtosecond light sources in both bulk and integrated format based on χ ( 2 ) OPOs using cw pump lasers. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Sanchez, A. D. (ORCID:0000000327630339)↗

Medium grain niobium SRF cavity production technology for science frontiers and accelerator applications

Herein we present the cost-effective production of superconducting radio frequency (SRF) cavities made of medium grain (MG) niobium (Nb) discs directly sliced from forged and annealed billet. This production method provides clean surface conditions and reliable mechanical characteristics with sub-millimeter average grain size resulting in stable SRF cavity production. We propose to apply this material to particle accelerator in the science and industrial applications. The science applications require high field gradients(≥ 30 MV/m) particularly in pulsed mode. The industrial applications require high $Q_0$ values with moderate gradients (~ 20 MV/m) in CW mode operation. This paper describes the MG Nb disc production recently demonstrated and discusses future prospects for application in advanced particle accelerators in the science and industrial applications.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A Novel Concentrating Solar Weathering Apparatus for Experimental Validation of Multi-Modal Degradation Models

High-performance coatings for Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) receivers are subjected to remarkable environmental stressors during normal operations. Applied to the receiver tubes, these coatings serve to maximize the solar absorptivity of the receiver, transferring as much heat as possible from the solar collectors into the heat-transfer fluid (HTF). The lifecycle of these coatings is not well-defined, and the harsh operational conditions make them difficult to test. NREL has designed, built, and tested an apparatus to expose these samples to design levels of environmental stress and well beyond, into accelerated and destructive conditions. The chamber is actively cooled, monitored, and has the capability to supply humidification for cycling tests, allowing us to test multi-modal degradation and failure conditions at high temperature, high flux, and high humidity conditions. These conditions can catalyze high-temperature oxidation, mechanical degradation, and other modes of absorptivity loss seen in selective solar receiver coatings. The experimental data can feed lifecycle models for expensive and necessarily resilient materials, offering insights to aid maintenance schedules, technoeconomic analysis, and material industry performance benchmarks. This presentation will demonstrate the apparatus design and performance, as well as initial results for aging on a selective receiver coating.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Rapid evolution of aerosol particles and their optical properties downwind of wildfires in the western US

Abstract. During the first phase of the Biomass Burn Operational Project (BBOP) field campaign, conducted in the Pacific Northwest, the DOE G-1 aircraft was used to follow the time evolution of wildfire smoke from near the point of emission to locations 2–3.5 h downwind. In nine flights we made repeated transects of wildfire plumes at varying downwind distances and could thereby follow the plume's time evolution. On average there was little change in dilution-normalized aerosol mass concentration as a function of downwind distance. This consistency hides a dynamic system in which primary aerosol particles are evaporating and secondary ones condensing. Organic aerosol is oxidized as a result. On all transects more than 90 % of aerosol is organic. In freshly emitted smoke aerosol, NH4+ is approximately equivalent to NO3. After 2 h of daytime aging, NH4+ increased and is approximately equivalent to the sum of Cl, SO42, and NO3. Particle size increased with downwind distance, causing particles to be more efficient scatters. Averaged over nine flights, mass scattering efficiency (MSE) increased in ∼ 2 h by 56 % and doubled in one flight. Mechanisms for redistributing mass from small to large particles are discussed. Coagulation is effective at moving aerosol from the Aitken to accumulation modes but yields only a minor increase in MSE. As absorption remained nearly constant with age, the time evolution of single scatter albedo was controlled by age-dependent scattering. Near-fire aerosol had a single scatter albedo (SSA) of 0.8–0.9. After 1 to 2 h of aging SSAs were typically 0.9 and greater. Assuming global-average surface and atmospheric conditions, the observed age dependence in SSA would change the direct radiative effect of a wildfire plume from near zero near the fire to a cooling effect downwind.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning methods for probabilistic locked-mode predictors in tokamak plasmas

A rotating tokamak plasma can interact resonantly with the external helical magnetic perturbations, also known as error fields. This can lead to locking and then to disruptions. We leverage machine learning (ML) methods to predict the locking events. We use a coupled third-order nonlinear ordinary differential equation model to represent the interaction of the magnetic perturbation and the plasma rotation with the error field. This model is sufficient to describe qualitatively the locking and unlocking bifurcations. Here, we explore using ML algorithms with the simulation data and experimental data, focusing on the methods that can be used with sparse datasets. These methods lead to the possibility of the avoidance of locking in real-time operations. We describe the operational space in terms of two control parameters: the magnitude of the error field and the rotation frequency associated with the momentum source that maintains the plasma rotation. The outcomes are quan- tified by order parameters that completely characterize the state, whether locked or unlocked. We use unsupervised ML methods to classify locked/unlocked states and note the usefulness of a certain normalization of the order parameters. Three supervised ML classifiers are used in suite to estimate the probability of locking in the region of control parameter space with hysteresis, i.e., the set of control parameters for which both locked and unlocked states can exist. The results show that a neural network gives the best estimate of the locking probability. An analogy of the present locking model with the van der Waals equation of state is also provided.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗