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Development of Future Heatwaves for Different Hazard Thresholds
In 2018 and 2019, heatwaves set all-time temperature records around the world and caused adverse effects on human health, agriculture, natural ecosystems, and infrastructure. Often, severe impacts relate to the joint spatial and temporal extent of the heatwaves, but most research so far focuses either on spatial or temporal attributes of heatwaves. Furthermore, sensitivity of heatwaves characteristics to the choice of the heatwave thresholds in a warming climate are rarely discussed. Here, we analyze the largest spatiotemporal moderate heatwaves—that is, three-dimensional (space-time) clusters of hot days—in simulations of global climate models. We use three different hazard thresholds to define a hot day: fixed thresholds (time-invariant climatological thresholds), seasonally moving thresholds based on changes in the summer means, and fully moving thresholds (hot days defined relative to the future climatology). We find a substantial increase of spatiotemporally contiguous moderate heatwaves with global warming using fixed thresholds, whereas changes for the other two hazard thresholds are much less pronounced. In particular, no or very little changes in the overall magnitude, spatial extent, and duration are detected when heatwaves are defined relative to the future climatology using a temporally fully moving threshold. This suggests a dominant contribution of thermodynamic compared to dynamic effects in global climate model simulations. The similarity between seasonally moving and fully moving thresholds indicates that seasonal mean warming alone can explain large parts of the warming of extremes. The strong sensitivity of simulated future heatwaves to hazard thresholds should be considered in the projections of potential future heat-related impacts.
Source apportionment of airborne volatile organic compounds near unconventional oil and gas development
Oil and natural gas (ONG) extraction emits volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Certain VOCs are identified as hazardous air pollutants (HAPS) while others contribute to ozone formation. This study examines the impact of ONG operations on VOC levels during the development of multi-well ONG pads in suburban Broomfield, Colorado. From October 2018 to December 2020, weekly VOC measurements were taken at 18 sites across the area. These included spots near well pads, in adjacent neighborhoods, and at a background site, covering various stages of well pad development including drilling, hydraulic fracturing, flowback, and production. Analysis using Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) identified six factors, including combustion, background/biogenic sources, light and complex alkanes, drilling activities, and ONG acetylene. Factors linked to local ONG activities exhibited clear temporal and spatial correlations with Broomfield well development. Benzene source analysis revealed distinct contribution gradients, with ONG-related sources notably influencing areas near the well pads, particularly in pre-production. ONG-related weekly benzene contributions varied from 9% to 63% at a community background site and 18% to 89% in a neighborhood close to a well pad.
Specification of ISS Plasma Environment Variability
Quantifying spacecraft charging risks and associated hazards for the International Space Station (ISS) requires a plasma environment specification for the natural variability of ionospheric temperature (Te) and density (Ne). Empirical ionospheric specification and forecast models such as the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model typically only provide long term (seasonal) mean Te and Ne values for the low Earth orbit environment. This paper describes a statistical analysis of historical ionospheric low Earth orbit plasma measurements from the AE-C, AE-D, and DE-2 satellites used to derive a model of deviations of observed data values from IRI-2001 estimates of Ne, Te parameters for each data point to provide a statistical basis for modeling the deviations of the plasma environment from the IRI model output. Application of the deviation model with the IRI-2001 output yields a method for estimating extreme environments for the ISS spacecraft charging analysis.
The Life and Times of Supervolcanoes: Inferences from Long Valley Caldera
Cataclysmic eruptions of silicic magma from "supervolcanoes" are among the most awe-inspiring natural phenomena found in the geologic record, in terms of size, power, and potential hazard. Based on the repose intervals between eruptions of this magnitude, the magmas responsible for them could accumulate gradually in the shallow crust over time scales that may be in excess of a million years (Smith, 1979; Spera and Crisp, 1981; Shaw, 1985). Pre-eruption magma residence time scales can also be inferred from the age difference between eruption (i.e., using 40Ar/39Ar dating to determine the time when hot erupted material cools to below its Ar closure temperature, 200 to 600 degC) and early pre-eruption crystallization (i.e., zircon saturation temperatures; Reid et al., 1997). I will discuss observations from Long Valley a Quaternary volcanic center in California. Long Valley is a voluminous, dominantly silicic caldera system. Based on extensive dating of accessory minerals (e.g., U-Th-Pb dating of zircon and allanite) along with geochemical and isotopic data we find that silicic magmas begin to crystallize 10's to 100's of thousands of years prior to their eruption and that rhyolites record episodes of punctuated and independent evolution rather than the periodic tapping of a long-lived magma. The more punctuated versus more gradual magma accumulation rates required by the absolute and model ages, respectively, imply important differences in the mass and heat fluxes associated with the generation, differentiation, and storage of voluminous rhyolites and emphasize the need to reconcile the magmatic age differences.
Asteroid Geophysics and Quantifying the Impact Hazard
Probably the major challenge in understanding, quantifying, and mitigating the effects of an impact on Earth is understanding the nature of the impactor. Of the roughly 25 meteorite craters on the Earth that have associated meteorites, all but one was produced by an iron meteorite and only one was produced by a stony meteorite. Equally important, even meteorites of a given chemical class produce a wide variety of behavior in the atmosphere. This is because they show considerable diversity in their mechanical properties which have a profound influence on the behavior of meteorites during atmospheric passage. Some stony meteorites are weak and do not reach the surface or reach the surface as thousands of relatively harmless pieces. Some stony meteorites roll into a maximum drag configuration and are strong enough to remain intact so a large single object reaches the surface. Others have high concentrations of water that may facilitate disruption. However, while meteorite falls and meteorites provide invaluable information on the physical nature of the objects entering the atmosphere, there are many unknowns concerning size and scale that can only be determined by from the pre-atmospheric properties of the asteroids. Their internal structure, their thermal properties, their internal strength and composition, will all play a role in determining the behavior of the object as it passes through the atmosphere, whether it produces an airblast and at what height, and the nature of the impact and amount and distribution of ejecta.
A Tool for the Risk-Informed Management of Critical Mission Resilience
We describe a methodology and tool for the risk-informed management and planning of mission resilience. By mapping concepts of resilience onto the elements of a streamlined risk model we are able to tap the substantial portfolio of established risk concepts to provide rapid insights in the evaluation and high-level screening of prospective resilience enhancement measures. This provides a risk-informed, levelized basis for the comparison of disparate resilience solutions and the means of establishing preferences. The methodology begins with identification of critical missions met by a site, and establishment of the supporting physical assets. Scenarios that would result in failure of these assets are systematically identified. Each scenario comprises three elements: realization of a hazard or threat resulting in loss of resources (the current focus being on power, natural gas, and water) to the asset, failure of measures in place to protect the asset against those losses, and realization of the consequent impacts. These scenarios are quantified in terms of their probabilities of occurrence and the magnitude of the resultant consequences (mission outage time), allowing risk-prioritization to focus resilience enhancement considerations. What-If? analyses are conducted through adjusting elements of the risk calculation to reflect the deployment of prospective resilience measures, by which means the efficacies of each of those measures can be compared using common risk metrics across diverse resilience strategies. This paper will also describe the insights from example applications.
Distribution Development for Residual Inventory at the New York West Valley Site - 20400
The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351 ha site located approximately 48 km south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Operations led to contamination in a number of facilities and locations. Some of that contamination has migrated from waste disposal zones to other layers, formations, and features on and off the WNYNSC. Phase I decommissioning activities are ongoing and involve the removal of a number of areas and structures that have been associated with contamination. The purpose of this work is to outline the approach for characterizing contamination not associated with disposed wastes, contaminated structures, or specific releases. In this work, the term, residual radiological activity, is used to describe environmental contamination that exists subsequent to the completion of Phase I decommissioning activities, that is not associated with disposed wastes, contaminated structures, or specific releases. Contamination from the Site was quantified relative to data that characterize the concentrations of radionuclides that exist in background. Background concentrations are those present in the area but having no influence from Site related activities. The existence of residual radiological activity that is elevated relative to background has the potential to contribute to future risks to human health and the environment. As a consequence, the residual inventory information is used to inform the West Valley Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) model to characterize potential future risks to human health and the environment. The centralized West Valley Data Management System (DMS) was the source of information for the data assembled in this analysis. The DMS is a fairly large compilation consisting of thousands of records from investigation studies, with sample dates ranging from 1990 to present. Samples from monitoring wells, boreholes, geoprobe studies, surface water, surface soils, storm water outfalls, ventilation stack filters, plant and animal tissues, and more are included in the DMS. Results are typically reported in units of activity per unit volume. For the purpose of the analyses presented here, all results were converted into consistent units of pCi per unit volume. Since 1990, data have been collected from various locations across the WNYNSC at different times with varying frequency over the course of several decades. As a consequence, a number of potential issues can arise with respect to the assembly of a dataset that is deemed adequate for the characterization of residual radiological activity. These issues were assessed and resolved to the extent possible through careful consideration of the properties of the distributions. The intent was to use data which characterize the current state of the Site. Radionuclides can be designated to one of several groups depending on their origin. In this work the groups considered were 1) Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material (NORM), 2) fallout, and 3) Other (including power plant, medical research, etc). This grouping is a useful construct with respect to the interpretation of fixed laboratory results. For example, NORM radionuclides that exist within a decay chain should have approximately equivalent distributions of concentrations if they are representative of background conditions. Insights such as these can be used as a check to identify sample results that need to be further investigated or omitted due to issues associated with reported results from fixed laboratory analyses. This type of analysis provided a foundation for the assessment of the adequacy of sample results for use in subsequent components of an assessment. The general process for the assessment of residual radiological contamination at the Site consists of a sequence of several steps. First, for each analyte, several statistical tests were performed to assess the weight of evidence against the null hypothesis that the mean of the distribution of concentrations was equal to zero. If the mean of the distribution of concentrations for a given radionuclide was not found to be greater than zero, then it was removed from consideration as a component of the residual radiological contamination. If there was significant evidence to reject the hypothesis of the mean being equal to zero, the second step was to compare the distribution of the data from the Site to that of the corresponding background. A suite of tests was used to compare the distributions of the site and background data. The results of these tests were collectively used to determine if site data are elevated relative to background. The third step was to develop distributions using a Bayesian framework to characterize the distribution of mean of the increment present above background for each of the radionuclides. The Bayesian model implemented allowed for the comparison of site-specific records to background concentrations to better approximate contamination attributed to the Site. A final screening step was employed for radionuclides that exceed background. This screening step compared 95% upper confidence limits (UCLs) from the increment distribution developed in the previous step to the risk screening levels. This approach yields a list of analytes that were determined to be elevated relative to background.
Review of Release Behavior of Hydrogen & Natural Gas Blends from Pipelines
Hydrogen can be used to reduce carbon emissions by blending into other gaseous energy carriers, such as natural gas. However, hydrogen blending into natural gas has important implications for safety which need to be evaluated. Hydrogen has different physical properties than natural gas, and these properties affect safety evaluations concerning a leak of the blended gas. The intent of this report is to begin to investigate the safety implications of blending hydrogen into the natural gas infrastructure with respect to a leak event from a pipeline. A literature review was conducted to identify existing data that will better inform future hazard and risk assessments for hydrogen/natural gas blends. Metrics with safety implications such as heat flux and dispersion behavior may be affected by the overall blend ratio of the mixture. Of the literature reviewed, there was no directly observed separation of the hydrogen from the natural gas or methane blend. No literature was identified that experimentally examined unconfined releases such as concentration fields or concentration at specific distances. Computational efforts have predicted concentration fields by modified versions of existing engineering models, but the validation of these models is limited by the unavailability of literature data. There are multiple literature sources that measured flame lengths and heat flux values, which are both relevant metrics to risk and hazard assessments. These data can be more directly compared to the outputs of existing engineering models for validation.
Poleward Migration of the Latitude of Maximum Tropical Cyclone Intensity—Forced or Natural?
Abstract Past studies have shown a significant observed poleward trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), especially in the northwest Pacific basin. Given the brevity of the historical record, it remains difficult to separate the forced trend from internal variability of the climate system. A recently developed tropical cyclone downscaling model is used to downscale the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), preindustrial control simulation. It is found that the observed trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific is very unlikely to be caused by internal variability. The same downscaling model is then used to downscale CESM2 simulations under historical forcing. The resulting trend distribution shows a significant poleward migration of tropical cyclone LMI even after regressing out both natural variability and the part of the forced warming pattern that projects onto natural variability. The results indicate that the observed poleward migration of the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific basin is likely to be, at least in part, forced. However, the magnitude of the projected poleward trend in climate models can be significantly modulated by the simulated spatial pattern of ocean warming. This highlights how discrepancies between models and observations, with regard to projected changes to the equatorial zonal sea surface temperature gradient under anthropogenic forcing, can lead to large uncertainties in projected changes to the LMI latitude of tropical cyclones. Significance Statement Observations in the northwest Pacific basin show that the latitude at which tropical cyclones are at their most intense has been trending northward in the recent half century. These changes are important since tropical cyclones could bring hazardous weather to coastal areas that are poorly equipped to handle them. Here, we show that natural variations in Earth’s climate are very unlikely to explain the observed poleward trend in the latitude that tropical cyclone reach their maximum intensity. We find that it is much more likely that the observed trend is forced by human-related emissions, though the spatial pattern of warming in response to greenhouse emissions can have significant impacts on the magnitude of the trend.
Lightning Hazards to Aircraft Fuel Tanks
The hazards of lightning strokes to aircraft fuel tanks have been investigated in artificial-lightning-generation facilities specifically constructed to duplicate closely the natural lightning discharges to air craft determined through flight research programs and analysis of lightning-damaged aircraft over a period of many years. Explosion studies were made in an environmental explosion chamber using small fuel tanks under various simulated flight conditions. The results showed that there is a primary hazard whenever there is direct puncture of the fuel-tank wall, whereas the ignition of fuel by hot spots on tank walls due to lightning strikes is unlikely. Punctures of fuel-tank walls by artificial-lightning discharges produced explosions of the fuel in the mixture range from excessively lean to rich mixtures. None of the aluminum alloys, 0.081 inch thick or over, were punctured by the laboratory discharges representative of natural-lightning discharges to aircraft; however, reliance on this wall thickness for complete protection would not be justified, because occasional strokes are known to be of greater magnitude and because statistics reveal variations in the damage pattern. Data gathered by the Lightning and Transients Research Institute on lightning strokes to aircraft show that 90 percent of the strokes recorded have occurred in the temperature range of -10° to +10° C, where many of the jet fuels are flammable but where aviation gasoline is overrich. Also, 10 percent of the strokes recorded have been to the wings, which are the principal fuel-storage areas for modern aircraft. Thus, there is a hazard, particularly for jet fuels. Certain protective measures are indicated by the studies to date, such as the use of lightning diverter rods, thickening of the wing skin in areas near the most probable stroke paths, and the use of fuel-tank liners in critical areas.
Compressor Station Differential Risk Assessment for Hydrogen and Natural Gas Blends
Blending hydrogen into existing natural gas pipelines is a current initiative for large-scale hydrogen deployment in the United States. Understanding changes in hazards and risk for fuel blends can help inform regulations. A differential risk assessment was conducted to understand how the safety profile of fires and unignited flammable plumes of leaking fuel would change based on blend composition. The area affected by harmful heat fluxes from jet fires was found to be larger for blends with more natural gas in them, while the distance affected by unignited flammable fuel concentrations was found to be larger for blends with more hydrogen in them. Component leak frequencies and ignition probabilities greatly impact both heat flux risk and the flammable plume risk. The collection of additional blend-specific industry data could help understand which assumptions are most valid to make when calculating risk.
Modeling Study of Reduced Tubing Size Effects on Flow in Depleted Reservoir Natural Gas Storage Wells
This report explores the effects of tubing size reductions on natural gas flow from representative depleted reservoir underground storage wells and fields using basic models for coupled reservoir and pipe flow. This work was motivated by interest at the U.S. Department of Transportation, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, in evaluating the effects of tubing and packer as a potential safety upgrade to implement double-barrier systems to existing underground natural gas storage wells. Reservoir and well flow models were developed from widely accepted industry equations, verified against a commercial process simulator model, and validated against field data. The study utilized U.S. operator survey data to provide context and assure that modeling parameters including aver age deliverability rates for wells and fields, operating pressures, well depths, and storage capacities were all carefully considered to keep the modeling relevant to the known range of U.S. operations. The models generally found that wells and fields with inherently low deliverability were relatively insensitive to reductions in tubing diameter, primarily because the hydraulics in those cases were controlled by reservoir properties. For the high-producing wells and fields, the models found that reducing tubing diameter could produce significant reductions in deliverability, both at the field- and well-level. When put into context with occurrence data regarding average deliverability of fields and wells, it appears that most wells and most fields across the U.S. would experience deliverability reductions on the low end of what was simulated here, generally below 20%. For fields with moderate to high deliverability, reductions were generally larger, and could reach as high as 60% for the highest-producing wells and fields.
Analysis of Flash Lidar Field Test Data for Safe Lunar Landing
In May 2008, the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) Project conducted a helicopter field test of a commercial flash lidar to assess its applicability to safe lunar landing. The helicopter flew several flights, which covered a variety of slant ranges and viewing angles, over man-made and natural lunar-like terrains. The collected data were analyzed to assess the performance of the sensor and the performance of two algorithms: Hazard Detection (HD) and Hazard Relative Navigation (HRN). The collected flash lidar data were also used to validate a high fidelity flash lidar software model used in ALHAT Monte Carlo simulations. The field test results, combined with prior simulation results, advanced the technology readiness level of the HD algorithm to TRL 5 and the HRN algorithm to TRL 4.
Electrical safety requirements: Implications for the module designer
Commercial photovoltaic array installations, which include residential and intermediate applications, are subject to building and electrical codes and to product safety standards. The National Electrical Code (NEC) Article 690, titled Solar Photovoltaic Systems, contains provisions defining acceptable levels of system safety and emphasizes the system design and its installation. The Underwriters Laboratories, Inc. (UL), document titled: Proposed First Edition of the Standard for Flat Plate Photovoltaic Modules and Panels, UL-1703, identifies module and panel construction requirements that ensure product safety. Together these documents describe requirements intended to minimize hazards such as shock and fire. Although initial focus of these requirements is on single crystal silicon modules, they are generic in nature, and are equally applicable to high voltage ( 30 Vdc), multikilowatt, thin film systems. A major safety concern is insulation breakdown within the module or array wiring system, or discontinuities within the electrical conductors. These failures can result in ground faults, in circuit arcs, or exposure to hazardous electrical parts. Safeguards are discussed.
Envisioning U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections to Meet New Challenges
In the face of a changing climate, the understanding, predictions, and projections of natural and human systems are increasingly crucial to prepare and cope with extremes and cascading hazards, determine unexpected feedbacks and potential tipping points, inform long-term adaptation strategies, and guide mitigation approaches. Increasingly complex socio-economic systems require enhanced predictive information to support advanced practices. Such new predictive challenges drive the need to fully capitalize on ambitious scientific and technological opportunities. These include the unrealized potential for very high-resolution modeling of global-to-local Earth system processes across timescales, reduction of model biases, enhanced integration of human systems and the Earth Systems, better quantification of predictability and uncertainties; expedited science-to-service pathways, and co-production of actionable information with stakeholders. Enabling technological opportunities include exascale computing, advanced data storage, novel observations and powerful data analytics, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Looking to generate community discussions on how to accelerate progress on U.S. climate predictions and projections, representatives of Federally-funded U.S. modeling groups outline here perspectives on a six-pillar national approach grounded in climate science that builds on the strengths of the U.S. modeling community and agency goals. This calls for an unprecedented level of coordination to capitalize on transformative opportunities, augmenting and complementing current modeling center capabilities and plans to support agency missions. Tangible outcomes include projections with horizontal spatial resolutions finer than 10 km, representing extremes and associated risks in greater detail, reduced model errors, better predictability estimates, and more customized projections to support next generation climate services.
Evolution of texture and internal stresses within polycrystalline rock salt using in situ 3D synchrotron computed tomography and 3D X-ray diffraction
Over time rock salt caverns have been extensively used as reliable repositories for hazardous waste such as nuclear waste, oil or compressed gases. Undisturbed rock salt deposits in nature are usually impermeable and have very low porosity. However, rock salt formations under excavation stresses can develop crack networks, which increase their porosities; and in the case of a connected crack network within the media, rock salt may become permeable. Although the relationship between the permeability of rock salt and the applied stresses has been reported in the literature, a microscopic study that investigates the properties influencing this relationship, such as the evolution of texture and internal stresses, has yet to be conducted. This study employs in situ 3D synchrotron micro-computed tomography and 3D X-ray diffraction (3DXRD) on two small-scale polycrystalline rock salt specimens to investigate the evolution of the texture and internal stresses within the specimens. The 3DXRD technique measures the 3D crystal structure and lattice strains within rock salt grains. The specimens were prepared under 1D compression conditions and have shown an initial {111} preferred texture, a dominant {110}$\langle1\bar{1}0\rangle$ slip system and no fully connected crack network. The {111} preferred texture under the unconfined compression experiment became stronger, while the {111}$\langle1\bar{1}0\rangle$ slip system became more prominent. The specimens did not have a fully connected crack network until applied axial stresses reached about 30 MPa, at a point where the impermeability of the material becomes compromised due to the development of multiple major cracks.
On wake vortex alleviation
Research within NASA relating to the nature of lift-induced vortex wakes behind large aircraft and the means whereby the hazard they represent to smaller aircraft can be alleviated is reviewed. The research, carried out in ground based facilities and in flight shows that more rapid dispersion of the wake can be effected by several means and that the modification of span-loading by appropriate flap deflection holds promise of early practical application.