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At least 487 records · Page 27

NESSUS/expert and NESSUS/FPI in the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) program

The Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures under Stress (NESSUS) is the primary computer code being developed in the NASA Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project. It consists of four modules NESSUS/EXPERT, NESSUS/FPI, NESSUS/PRE and NESSUS/FEM. This presentation concentrates on EXPERT and FPI. To provide an effective interface between NESSUS and the user, an expert system module called NESSUS/EXPERT is being developed. That system uses the CLIPS artificial intelligence code developed to NASA-JSC. The code is compatible with FORTRAN, the standard language for codes in PSAM. The user interacts with the CLIPS inference engine, which is linked to the knowledge database. The perturbation database generated by NESSUS/FEM and managed in EXPERT is used to develop the so-called response or performance model in the random variables. Two independent probabilistic methods are available in PSAM for the computation of the probabilistic structural response. These are the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) method and Monte Carlo simulation. FPI is classified as an advanced reliability method and has been developed over the past ten years by researchers addressing the reliability of civil engineering structures. Monte Carlo is a well-established technique for computing probabilities by conducting a number of deterministic analyses with specified input distributional information.

Burnside, O. H.↗

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prognostics Algorithms in Resource-Constrained Settings

In engineering and aerospace applications, it is vital to operational success to have insight into the expected performance and health of physical systems. The field of prognostics and health management provides quantitative methods for monitoring, predicting, and managing system health. Prognostics algorithms can be employed to assess the current state of a system, propagate the system throughout time, and predict potential anomalies or failures that may occur. While they can provide accurate prediction results, effective prognostics algorithms can be challenging to use in resource-constrained settings due to computational limitations and high computational latency, leading to obsolete predictions. Thus, computationally efficient and accurate algorithms are necessary for future remaining useful life predictions. In this work, we implement new algorithmic approaches for prediction, quantitatively compare them via a battery degradation use-case, and provide recommendations of potential improvements to a prognostics framework. One approach to prediction is through sampling, whereby the current state of a physical system is sampled many times and each sample is propagated forward until failure is reached, resulting in a distribution of failure values. To improve the efficiency of this process, we implemented five new algorithmic approaches to prediction, including three distinct sampling methods (standard Monte Carlo, Quasi-Monte Carlo, and Latin Hypercube Sampling), a variable time step algorithm, and a variable sample size algorithm. To compare the algorithms, we employ a variety of metrics designed specifically to analyze both computational efficiency and model accuracy. Our metrics include accuracy to compare the average predicted value to ground truth, mean absolute deviation to illustrate dispersion, specific percentile error to describe accuracy within a user-defined risk tolerance, and code run-time. To quantitatively analyze our results, we employ a use-case of degradation of a Lithium-ion battery. We use an electrochemistry-based model to describe the current health state of the battery, and implement our prediction algorithms to propagate forward in time until end-of-discharge (EOD) is reached. Notably, through this work it was found that none of our sampling approaches had a significant impact on computational efficiency or model accuracy in predicting EOD of the battery. We find that while the sampling methods are unique, the distributions they generate are similar, ultimately producing final predictions that are nearly identical. In exploring the effect of the time step within the prediction algorithm, we found that prediction accuracy was highly dependent on the time step used, and that implementing a variable time step within a particular prediction may provide an increase in computational efficiency while also maintaining prediction accuracy. Finally, implementing a variable sample size also affected prediction, and our results show that tuning both the magnitude and timing of the sample size adjustment can result in improved computation speed and maintained prediction accuracy. Taken together, our findings highlight the challenge of performing prognostics in resource-constrained settings, and illustrate the potential of developing new prediction algorithms to improve computational efficiency.

prognostics↗

Trade Studies of Space Launch Architectures using Modular Probabilistic Risk Analysis

A top-down risk assessment in the early phases of space exploration architecture development can provide understanding and intuition of the potential risks associated with new designs and technologies. In this approach, risk analysts draw from their past experience and the heritage of similar existing systems as a source for reliability data. This top-down approach captures the complex interactions of the risk driving parts of the integrated system without requiring detailed knowledge of the parts themselves, which is often unavailable in the early design stages. Traditional probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) technologies, however, suffer several drawbacks that limit their timely application to complex technology development programs. The most restrictive of these is a dependence on static planning scenarios, expressed through fault and event trees. Fault trees incorporating comprehensive mission scenarios are routinely constructed for complex space systems, and several commercial software products are available for evaluating fault statistics. These static representations cannot capture the dynamic behavior of system failures without substantial modification of the initial tree. Consequently, the development of dynamic models using fault tree analysis has been an active area of research in recent years. This paper discusses the implementation and demonstration of dynamic, modular scenario modeling for integration of subsystem fault evaluation modules using the Space Architecture Failure Evaluation (SAFE) tool. SAFE is a C++ code that was originally developed to support NASA s Space Launch Initiative. It provides a flexible framework for system architecture definition and trade studies. SAFE supports extensible modeling of dynamic, time-dependent risk drivers of the system and functions at the level of fidelity for which design and failure data exists. The approach is scalable, allowing inclusion of additional information as detailed data becomes available. The tool performs a Monte Carlo analysis to provide statistical estimates. Example results of an architecture system reliability study are summarized for an exploration system concept using heritage data from liquid-fueled expendable Saturn V/Apollo launch vehicles.

Mathias, Donovan L.↗

DSMC simulation of the interaction between rarefied free jets

This paper presents a direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) calculation of two interacting free jets exhausting into vacuum. The computed flow field is compared against available experimental data and shows excellent agreement everywhere except in the very near field (less than one orifice diameter downstream of the jet exhaust plane). The lack of agreement in this region is attributed to having assumed an inviscid boundary condition for the orifice lip. The results serve both to validate the DSMC code for a very complex, three dimensional non-equilibrium flow field, and to provide some insight as to the complicated nature of this flow.

Dagum, Leonardo↗

Space Radiation Transport Methods Development

Improved spacecraft shield design requires early entry of radiation constraints into the design process to maximize performance and minimize costs. As a result, we have been investigating high-speed computational procedures to allow shield analysis from the preliminary design concepts to the final design. In particular, we will discuss the progress towards a full three-dimensional and computationally efficient deterministic code for which the current HZETRN evaluates the lowest order asymptotic term. HZETRN is the first deterministic solution to the Boltzmann equation allowing field mapping within the International Space Station (ISS) in tens of minutes using standard Finite Element Method (FEM) geometry common to engineering design practice enabling development of integrated multidisciplinary design optimization methods. A single ray trace in ISS FEM geometry requires 14 milliseconds and severely limits application of Monte Carlo methods to such engineering models. A potential means of improving the Monte Carlo efficiency in coupling to spacecraft geometry is given in terms of reconfigurable computing and could be utilized in the final design as verification of the deterministic method optimized design.

Wilson, J. W.↗

DSMC Shock Simulation of Saturn Entry Probe Conditions

This work describes the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) investigation of Saturn entry probe scenarios and the influence of non-equilibrium phenomena on Saturn entry conditions. The DSMC simulations coincide with rarefied hypersonic shock tube experiments of a hydrogen-helium mixture performed in the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) at NASA Ames Research Center. To directly compare to the experimental results, the DSMC simulations are post-processed through the NEQAIR line-by-line radiation code. Improved collision cross-sections, inelastic collision parameters, and reaction rates are determined for a high temperature DSMC simulation of a 7-species H2-He mixture and an electronic excitation model is implemented in the DSMC code. Simulation results for 27.8 and 27.4 kms shock waves are obtained at 0.2 and 0.1 Torr respectively and compared to measured spectra in the VUV, UV, visible, and IR ranges. These results confirm the persistence of non-equilibrium for several centimeters behind the shock and the diffusion of atomic hydrogen upstream of the shock wave. Although the magnitude of the radiance did not match experiments and an ionization inductance period was not observed in the simulations, the discrepancies indicated where improvements are needed in the DSMC and NEQAIR models.

Saturn↗

LSPRAY-II: A Lagrangian Spray Module

LSPRAY-II is a Lagrangian spray solver developed for application with parallel computing and unstructured grids. It is designed to be massively parallel and could easily be coupled with any existing gas-phase flow and/or Monte Carlo Probability Density Function (PDF) solvers. The solver accommodates the use of an unstructured mesh with mixed elements of either triangular, quadrilateral, and/or tetrahedral type for the gas flow grid representation. It is mainly designed to predict the flow, thermal and transport properties of a rapidly vaporizing spray because of its importance in aerospace application. The manual provides the user with an understanding of various models involved in the spray formulation, its code structure and solution algorithm, and various other issues related to parallelization and its coupling with other solvers. With the development of LSPRAY-II, we have advanced the state-of-the-art in spray computations in several important ways.

Raju, M. S.↗

A space radiation transport method development

Improved spacecraft shield design requires early entry of radiation constraints into the design process to maximize performance and minimize costs. As a result, we have been investigating high-speed computational procedures to allow shield analysis from the preliminary design concepts to the final design. In particular, we will discuss the progress towards a full three-dimensional and computationally efficient deterministic code for which the current HZETRN evaluates the lowest-order asymptotic term. HZETRN is the first deterministic solution to the Boltzmann equation allowing field mapping within the International Space Station (ISS) in tens of minutes using standard finite element method (FEM) geometry common to engineering design practice enabling development of integrated multidisciplinary design optimization methods. A single ray trace in ISS FEM geometry requires 14 ms and severely limits application of Monte Carlo methods to such engineering models. A potential means of improving the Monte Carlo efficiency in coupling to spacecraft geometry is given in terms of re-configurable computing and could be utilized in the final design as verification of the deterministic method optimized design. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

NASA Center JSC↗

LSPRAY-III: A Lagrangian Spray Module

LSPRAY-III is a Lagrangian spray solver developed for application with parallel computing and unstructured grids. It is designed to be massively parallel and could easily be coupled with any existing gas-phase flow and/or Monte Carlo Probability Density Function (PDF) solvers. The solver accommodates the use of an unstructured mesh with mixed elements of either triangular, quadrilateral, and/or tetrahedral type for the gas flow grid representation. It is mainly designed to predict the flow, thermal and transport properties of a rapidly vaporizing spray because of its importance in aerospace application. The manual provides the user with an understanding of various models involved in the spray formulation, its code structure and solution algorithm, and various other issues related to parallelization and its coupling with other solvers. With the development of LSPRAY-III, we have advanced the state-of-the-art in spray computations in several important ways.

Raju, M. S.↗

Numerical Study of Lander Engine Plume Impingement on the Surface of Europa

Plume exhaust from lander engines would be of concern when landing on the surface of Europa since it could have detrimental effects on both the landing surface and powered descent vehicle. The plume could also entrain particles and redirect them up toward the landing vehicle, as well as erode and contaminate the surface where science would be conducted. In this work, a numerical methodology is developed and validated to conduct a first-order assessment of individual engine plumes of a potential Europa Lander vehicle. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is used to solve the flow field inside and immediately downstream of the nozzle, while the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is applied further downstream where the flow becomes rarefied. An interface between the two domains is defined where macroscopic flow data is passed from the CFD domain to the DSMC domain, establishing a one-way coupling. Plume pressure and velocity fields, as well as ground heating, pressure and density flux profiles, are obtained at altitudes from 25 m down to 10 m, spanning the final stages of landing. The codes and methodologies used in this study are successfully validated with simulations conducted by Morris et al. of the Apollo Lunar Module Descent Engine (LMDE) exhaust plume impinging onto the lunar surface.

Lam, Rebekah↗

Numerical study of lander engine plume impingement on the surface off Europa

Plume exhaust from lander engines would be of concern when landing on the surface of Europa since it could have detrimental effects on both the landing surface and powered descent vehicle. The plume could also entrain particles and redirect them up toward the landing vehicle, as well as erode and contaminate the surface where science would be conducted. In this work, a numerical methodology is developed and validated to conduct a first-order assessment of individual engine plumes of a potential Europa Lander vehicle. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is used to solve the flow field inside and immediately downstream of the nozzle, while the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is applied further downstream where the flow becomes rarefied. An interface between the two domains is defined where macroscopic flow data is passed from the CFD domain to the DSMC domain, establishing a one-way coupling. Plume pressure and velocity fields, as well as ground heating, pressure and density flux profiles, are obtained at altitudes from 25 m down to 10 m, spanning the final stages of landing. The codes and methodologies used in this study are successfully validated with simulations conducted by Morris et al. [1-3] of the Apollo Lunar Module Descent Engine (LMDE) exhaust plume impinging onto the lunar surface.

Hoey, William↗

LSPRAY: Lagrangian Spray Solver for Applications With Parallel Computing and Unstructured Gas-Phase Flow Solvers

Sprays occur in a wide variety of industrial and power applications and in the processing of materials. A liquid spray is a phase flow with a gas as the continuous phase and a liquid as the dispersed phase (in the form of droplets or ligaments). Interactions between the two phases, which are coupled through exchanges of mass, momentum, and energy, can occur in different ways at different times and locations involving various thermal, mass, and fluid dynamic factors. An understanding of the flow, combustion, and thermal properties of a rapidly vaporizing spray requires careful modeling of the rate-controlling processes associated with the spray's turbulent transport, mixing, chemical kinetics, evaporation, and spreading rates, as well as other phenomena. In an attempt to advance the state-of-the-art in multidimensional numerical methods, we at the NASA Lewis Research Center extended our previous work on sprays to unstructured grids and parallel computing. LSPRAY, which was developed by M.S. Raju of Nyma, Inc., is designed to be massively parallel and could easily be coupled with any existing gas-phase flow and/or Monte Carlo probability density function (PDF) solver. The LSPRAY solver accommodates the use of an unstructured mesh with mixed triangular, quadrilateral, and/or tetrahedral elements in the gas-phase solvers. It is used specifically for fuel sprays within gas turbine combustors, but it has many other uses. The spray model used in LSPRAY provided favorable results when applied to stratified-charge rotary combustion (Wankel) engines and several other confined and unconfined spray flames. The source code will be available with the National Combustion Code (NCC) as a complete package.

Raju, Manthena S.↗

MCRadar: A Monte Carlo Solver for Cloud and Precipitation Radar

Multiple scattering produces anomalous echoes in observed radar profiles that cannot be explained by other phenomena. These effects are most obvious for spaceborne platforms, at shorter wavelengths, and in convection, as multiple scattering is governed by antenna beam width, optical depth, and albe do; however, multiple scattering has been observed in a range of precipitating conditions. To account for the effects of multiple scattering, Monte Carlo integration is employed in a flexible framework to enable arbitrary radar configurations with finite Gaussian beams for three-dimensional atmospheric scenarios. The three-dimensional nature of the model, coupled with the finite antenna response, also allows for consideration of nonuniform beam filling effects that often coincide with multiple scattering. Examples of airborne and spaceborne radars at various wavelengths are used to illustrate the effects of multiple scattering and nonuniform beam filling. The MCRadar code is currently available in the development version of ARTS.

Adams, Ian Stuart↗

InSight Entry, Descent and Landing Pre-Flight Performance Predictions

On November 26, 2018, the Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport (InSight) lander successfully touched down on the surface of Mars. Over its seven-plus year development, NASA Langley Research Center’s (LaRC) Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) was used to assess the mission’s Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) vehicle system performance against related requirements across the full range of possible environmental and spacecraft conditions. Much of the simulation code was derived from the Phoenix mission, for which this vehicle is very similar. The InSight six degree-of-freedom simulation included models for Mars atmosphere, gravity and digital elevation maps of the landing location. Additionally, vehicle specific aerodynamic, parachute, engine, navigation sensor, flight software and landing radar models were also included. A set of dispersions for each model, as well as for additional simulation input parameters, were also included in order to provide a statistical, Monte Carlo prediction of the EDL system performance. An overview of the pre-flight performance assessments completed, including the various simulation campaigns used, will be provided. Ultimately, this work was critical in the assessment of readiness for InSight launch. A brief description of the use of this simulation in support of flight operations is also discussed.

Robert W Maddock↗

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system components

This annual report summarizes the work completed during the third year of technical effort on the referenced contract. Principal developments continue to focus on the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM) which has been under development for three years. Essentially all of the linear capabilities within the PFEM code are in place. Major progress in the application or verifications phase was achieved. An EXPERT module architecture was designed and partially implemented. EXPERT is a user interface module which incorporates an expert system shell for the implementation of a rule-based interface utilizing the experience and expertise of the user community. The Fast Probability Integration (FPI) Algorithm continues to demonstrate outstanding performance characteristics for the integration of probability density functions for multiple variables. Additionally, an enhanced Monte Carlo simulation algorithm was developed and demonstrated for a variety of numerical strategies.

Source record↗

Orbit Determination Toolbox

The Orbit Determination Toolbox is an orbit determination (OD) analysis tool based on MATLAB and Java that provides a flexible way to do early mission analysis. The toolbox is primarily intended for advanced mission analysis such as might be performed in concept exploration, proposal, early design phase, or rapid design center environments. The emphasis is on flexibility, but it has enough fidelity to produce credible results. Insight into all flight dynamics source code is provided. MATLAB is the primary user interface and is used for piecing together measurement and dynamic models. The Java Astrodynamics Toolbox is used as an engine for things that might be slow or inefficient in MATLAB, such as high-fidelity trajectory propagation, lunar and planetary ephemeris look-ups, precession, nutation, polar motion calculations, ephemeris file parsing, and the like. The primary analysis functions are sequential filter/smoother and batch least-squares commands that incorporate Monte-Carlo data simulation, linear covariance analysis, measurement processing, and plotting capabilities at the generic level. These functions have a user interface that is based on that of the MATLAB ODE suite. To perform a specific analysis, users write MATLAB functions that implement truth and design system models. The user provides his or her models as inputs to the filter commands. The software provides a capability to publish and subscribe to a software bus that is compliant with the NASA Goddard Mission Services Evolution Center (GMSEC) standards, to exchange data with other flight dynamics tools to simplify the flight dynamics design cycle. Using the publish and subscribe approach allows for analysts in a rapid design center environment to seamlessly incorporate changes in spacecraft and mission design into navigation analysis and vice versa.

Carpenter, James R.↗

Determination of Uncertainties for Analytically Derived Material Properties to Be Used in Monte Carlo Based Orion Heatshield Sizing

Ablative materials are often used for spacecraft heatshields to protect underlying structures from the extreme environments associated with atmospheric reentry. NASA's Orion EM-1 capsule has been designed to use a molded Avcoat material system. In order to determine the required heatshield thickness, a Monte Carlo approach to the sizing process was proposed. To perform the Monte Carlo simulation, statistical uncertainties on all material property input parameters were required. Obtaining these values for measured properties is straightforward, however input parameters that are derived analytically have historically used uncertainties based on engineering judgment. A MATLAB program was created to use laboratory generated thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) data to calculate uncertainties on the Arrhenius parameters for molded Avcoat. Uncertainties associated with the normalized ablation rate and pyrolysis gas enthalpy were also generated using a wrapper script and the ACE code. These uncertainties could then be tied directly to measured values of individual elemental constituents. The resulting uncertainty values will allow for a probabilistic sizing approach on molded Avcoat with a higher level of confidence in the input parameters.

material property uncertainties↗

A DSMC Study of Low Pressure Argon Discharge

Work toward a self-consistent plasma simulation using the DSMC (Direct Simulation Monte Carlo) method for examination of the flowfields of low-pressure high density plasma reactors is presented. Presently, DSMC simulations for these applications involve either treating the electrons as a fluid or imposing experimentally determined values for the electron number density profile. In either approach, the electrons themselves are not physically simulated. Self-consistent plasma DSMC simulations have been conducted for aerospace applications but at a severe computational cost due in part to the scalar architectures on which the codes were employed. The present work attempts to conduct such simulations at a more reasonable cost using a plasma version of the object-oriented parallel Cornell DSMC code, MONACO, on an IBM SP-2. Due to availability of experimental data, the GEC reference cell is chosen to conduct preliminary investigations. An argon discharge is chosen to conduct preliminary investigations. An argon discharge is examined thus affording a simple chemistry set with eight gas-phase reactions and five species: Ar, Ar(+), Ar(*), Ar(sub 2), and e where Ar(*) is a metastable.

Hash, David B.↗