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NASA NTRS2000

Interactive Soil Dust Aerosol Model in the GISS GCM: Sensitivity of the Soil Dust Cycle to Radiative Properties of Soil Dust Aerosols - Part 1

The sensitivity of the soil dust aerosol cycle to the radiative forcing by soil dust aerosols is studied. Four experiments with the NASA/GISS atmospheric general circulation model, which includes a soil dust aerosol model, are compared, all using a prescribed climatological sea surface temperature as lower boundary condition. In one experiment, dust is included as dynamic tracer only (without interacting with radiation), whereas dust interacts with radiation in the other simulations. Although the single scattering albedo of dust particles is prescribed to be globally uniform in the experiments with radiatively active dust, a different single scattering albedo is used in those experiments to estimate whether regional variations in dust optical properties, corresponding to variations in mineralogical composition among different source regions, are important for the soil dust cycle and the climate state. On a global scale, the radiative forcing by dust generally causes a reduction in the atmospheric dust load corresponding to a decreased dust source flux. That is, there is a negative feedback in the climate system due to the radiative effect of dust. The dust source flux and its changes were analyzed in more detail for the main dust source regions. This analysis shows that the reduction varies both with the season and with the single scattering albedo of the dust particles. By examining the correlation with the surface wind, it was found that the dust emission from the Saharan/Sahelian source region and from the Arabian peninsula, along with the sensitivity of the emission to the single scattering albedo of dust particles, are related to large scale circulation patterns, in particular to the trade winds during Northern Hemisphere winter and to the Indian monsoon circulation during summer. In the other regions, such relations to the large scale circulation were not found. There, the dependence of dust deflation to radiative forcing by dust particles is probably dominated by physical processes with short time scales. The experiments show that dust radiative forcing can lead to significant changes both in the soil dust cycle and in the climate state. To estimate dust concentration and radiative forcing by dust more accurately, dust size distributions and dust single scattering albedo in the model should be a function of the source region, because dust concentration and climate response to dust radiative forcing are sensitive to dust radiative parameters.

Perlwitz, Jan↗
NASA NTRS1999

Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in Climate Changes

The diagram, which attests the El Nino teleconnection observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) in 1997, is an example of the results of our research in air-sea interaction - the core component of our three-part contribution to the Climate Variability Program. We have established an interplay among scientific research, which turns spacebased data into knowledge, a push in instrument technology, which improves observations of climate variability, and an information system, which produces and disseminates new data to support our scientific research. Timothy Liu led the proposal for advanced technology, in response to the NASA Post-2002 Request for Information. The sensor was identified as a possible mission for continuous ocean surface wind measurement at higher spatial resolution, and with the unique capability to measure ocean surface salinity. He is participating in the Instrument Incubator Program to improve the antenna technology, and is initiating a study to integrate the concept on Japanese missions. He and his collaborators have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind/stress data from NSCAT and European missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from Quikscat, and precipitation and evaporation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. It will form the basis for a spacebased data analysis system which will include momentum, heat and water fluxes. The study on 1997 El Nino teleconnection illustrates our interdisciplinary and multisensor approach to study climate variability. The diagram shows that the collapse of trade wind and the westerly wind anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific led to the equatorial ocean warming. The equatorial wind anomalies are connected to the anomalous cyclonic wind pattern in the northeast Pacific. The anomalous warming along the west coast of the United States is the result of the movement of the pre-existing warm sea surface temperature anomalies with the cyclonic wind anomalies toward the coast. The results led to a new study which identifies decadal ocean variations in the Northeast Pacific. Three studies of oceanic responses to wind forcing caused by the seasonal change of monsoons, the passage of a typhoon, and the 1997 El Nino, were successfully conducted. Besides wind forcing, we continue to examine new techniques for estimating thermal and hydrologic fluxes, through the inverse ocean mixed-layer model, through divergence of atmospheric water transport, and by direct retrieval from radiances observed by microwave radiometers. Greenhouse warming has been linked to water vapor measured by two spaceborne sensors in two studies. In the first study, strong baroclinicity and deep convection were found to transport water vapor to the upper atmosphere and increase greenhouse trapping over the storm tracks of the North Pacific and Atlantic. In another study, the annual cycle of greenhouse warming were related to sea surface temperature (SST) and integrated water vapor, and the latitudinal dependence of the magnitudes and phases of the annual cycles were compared.

Liu, W. Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2000

Role of Easterly Waves in the Maintenance of the African Easterly Jet

About fifty percent of all hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean form within African easterly waves (AEW). Many previous studies have indicated that these waves result from combined barotropic-baroclinic instability of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ). The AEJ is in turn believed to be due to the strong temperature gradient between the very warm Sahara Desert and the cooler Sahel and Gulf of Guinea to the south. Zonally averaged latitude-pressure cross-sections of summertime zonal winds over Africa show the AEJ as a 8-12 m/s jet centered at 600-700 mb near 15 N. Such cross-sections also show a weaker southern hemisphere easterly jet near 5-150S, monsoonal westerlies centered beneath the AEJ, and upper tropospheric features such as the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) near 30N and the subtropical westerly jet near 35ON . Thomcroft and Blackburn performed zonally symmetric simulations that showed that the effect of thermal wind balance over the observed low level meridional temperature gradient over northern Africa is particularly important in the formation of the AEJ. They also found that in order to reproduce some of the other aforementioned features of the summertime climatological wind field over Africa it is necessary to include the effects of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) convective heating. While the diabatic effects of Saharan and ITCZ heating tend to strengthen the AEJ, AEW remove energy from the AEJ, thereby weakening it. In this study we take the next step towards understanding the maintenance of the AEJ by including the effects of AEW.

Ferreira, Rosana Nieto↗
NASA NTRS1998

Seasonal Cycles of Meridional Overturning and Heat Transport of the Indian Ocean

A general circulation model of the Indian Ocean is fitted to monthly averaged climatological temperatures, salinities, and surface fluxes using the adjoint method. Interannual variability is minimized by penalizing the temporal drift from one seasonal cycle to another during a two-year integration. The resultant meridional overturning and heat transport display large seasonal variations, with maximum amplitudes of 18 and 22 (x 10(exp 6) cubic m/s) for the overturning and 1.8 and 1.4 (x 10(exp 15) W) for heat transport near 10 S and 10 N, respectively. A dynamical decomposition of the overturning and heat transport shows that the time-varying Ekman How plus its barotropic compensation can explain a large part of the seasonal variations in overturning and heat transport. The maximum variations at 10 deg N and 10 deg S are associated with monsoon reversal over the northern Indian Ocean and changes of the easterlies over the southern Indian Ocean. An external mode with variable topography has a moderate contribution where the Somali Current and the corresponding gyre reverse direction seasonally. Contribution front vertical shear (thermal wind and ageostrophic shear) is dominant near the southern boundary and large near the Somali Current latitudes. The dominant balance in the zonally integrated heat budget is between heat storage change and heat transport convergence except south of 15 S. Optimization with seasonal forcings improves estimates of sea surface temperatures, but the annual average overturning and heat transport are very similar to previous results with annual mean forcings. The annual average heat transport consists of roughly equal contributions from time-mean and time-varying fields of meridional velocities and temperatures in the northern Indian Ocean. indicating a significant rectification to the heat transport due to the time-varying fields. The time-mean and time-varying contributions are primarily due to the overturning and horizontal gyre, respectively. Inclusion of TOPEX data enhances the seasonal cycles of the estimated overturning and heat transport in the central Indian Ocean significantly and improves the estimated equatorial zonal flows but leads 10 unrealistic estimates of the velocity structure near the Indonesian Throughflow region, most likely owing to the deficiencies in the lateral boundary conditions.

Lee, Tong↗
NASA NTRS2000

"Cloud Slicing" : A New Technique to Derive Tropospheric Ozone Profile Information from Satellite Measurements

A new technique denoted cloud slicing has been developed for estimating tropospheric ozone profile information. All previous methods using satellite data were only capable of estimating the total column of ozone in the troposphere. Cloud slicing takes advantage of the opaque property of water vapor clouds to ultraviolet wavelength radiation. Measurements of above-cloud column ozone from the Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) instrument are combined together with Nimbus 7 temperature humidity and infrared radiometer (THIR) cloud-top pressure data to derive ozone column amounts in the upper troposphere. In this study tropical TOMS and THIR data for the period 1979-1984 are analyzed. By combining total tropospheric column ozone (denoted TCO) measurements from the convective cloud differential (CCD) method with 100-400 hPa upper tropospheric column ozone amounts from cloud slicing, it is possible to estimate 400-1000 hPa lower tropospheric column ozone and evaluate its spatial and temporal variability. Results for both the upper and lower tropical troposphere show a year-round zonal wavenumber 1 pattern in column ozone with largest amounts in the Atlantic region (up to approx. 15 DU in the 100-400 hPa pressure band and approx. 25-30 DU in the 400-1000 hPa pressure band). Upper tropospheric ozone derived from cloud slicing shows maximum column amounts in the Atlantic region in the June-August and September-November seasons which is similar to the seasonal variability of CCD derived TCO in the region. For the lower troposphere, largest column amounts occur in the September-November season over Brazil in South America and also southern Africa. Localized increases in the tropics in lower tropospheric ozone are found over the northern region of South America around August and off the west coast of equatorial Africa in the March-May season. Time series analysis for several regions in South America and Africa show an anomalous increase in ozone in the lower troposphere around the month of March which is not observed in the upper troposphere. The eastern Pacific indicates weak seasonal variability of upper, lower, and total tropospheric ozone compared to the western Pacific which shows largest TCO amounts in both hemispheres around spring months. Ozone variability in the western Pacific is expected to have greater variability caused by strong convection, pollution and biomass burning, land/sea contrast and monsoon developments.

Ziemke, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Significant Findings: Seasonal Distributions of Global Ocean Chlorophyll and Nutrients With a Coupled Ocean General Circulation, Biogeochemical, and Radiative Model: Comparisons With Satellite and In Situ Data - 2

A coupled ocean general circulation, biogeochemical, and radiative model was constructed to evaluate and understand the nature of seasonal variability of chlorophyll and nutrients in the global oceans. Biogeochemical processes in the model were determined from the influences of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability, and the interactions among three functional phytoplankton groups (diatoms, chlorophytes, and picoplankton) and three nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, and silicate). Basin scale (>1000 km) model chlorophyll seasonal distributions were statistically positively correlated with CZCS chlorophyll in 10 of 12 major oceanographic regions, and with SeaWiFS in all 12. Notable disparities in magnitudes occurred, however, in the tropical Pacific, the spring/summer bloom in the Antarctic, autumn in the northern high latitudes, and during the southwest monsoon in the North Indian Ocean. Synoptic scale (100-1000 km) comparisons of satellite and in situ data exhibited broad agreement, although occasional departures were apparent. Model nitrate distributions agreed with in situ data, including seasonal dynamics, except for the equatorial Atlantic. The overall agreement of the model with satellite and in situ data sources indicated that the model dynamics offer a reasonably realistic simulation of phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics on basin and synoptic scales.

Gregg, Watson W.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Decadal-Interdecadal SST Variability and Regional Climate Teleconnections

Dominant modes of decadal and interdecadal SST variability and their impacts on summertime rainfall variability over East Asia and the North America are studied. Two dominant modes of interdecadal SST variability, one associated with El Nino-like warming in the global oceans and one with an east-west seesaw variation in the equatorial Pacific have been identified. The first mode is associated in part with a long-term warming trend in the topical oceans and cooling over the northern Pacific. The second mode suggests an westward shift and strengthening of the Walker circulation from 1960s to the 1980s. Over East Asian, the first SST mode is correlated with reduced rainfall in northern China and excessive rainfall in central China. This SST mode is also associated with the tendency for increased rainfall over the midwest region, and reduced rainfall over the east Coast of the US. The results suggest a teleconnection pattern which links the occurrences of drought and floods over the Asian monsoon and the US summertime time climate. This teleconnection is likely to be associated with decadal variability of the East Asian jetstream, which are affected by strong land surface heating over the Siberian region, as well as El Nino-like SST forcings. The occurrences of major droughts and floods in the East Asian and US continent in recent decades are discussed in light of the above teleconnection patterns.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Diagnosing Tropical Divergent Circulations From Satellite-Derived Diabatic Forcing and Variational Integral Constraints

Large-scale divergent circulations are part of the atmospheric dynamic response to diabatic heating from condensation, radiative processes, and surface energy fluxes. Vertical motion and the associated divergent wind is thus intimately tied to the hydrologic cycle and the global beat balance. Despite its importance, the divergent circulation is too small in comparison to the rotational flow to measure directly with any accuracy. Vertical motions are recovered diagnostically from reanalyses and, as such, are subject to shortcomings in model physics, numerics, and data availability. While reanalysis estimates of tropical divergent circulations are much improved over those from the Global Weather Experiment, there are still substantial differences between products from operational centers. This is because these circulations are still forced largely by model physics and only secondarily by observations. In order to produce a refined estimate of tropical divergence and its interannual variability we have used a number of remotely-sensed data sets along with variational constraints to improve upon reanalysis estimates. Among these are: precipitation from SSM/I and GPCP, TOVS Path-A vertical cloud distributions; ISCCP radiative cooling rates; TOA radiative fluxes from ERBS, surface radiative fluxes from the SRB project, and surface latent and sensible flux estimates from SSM/I. The TOVS Path-A data constrain the divergent outflow in precipitating regions to have the same vertical structure as observed cloudiness. Using integral constraints for moisture, heat, and mass balance, we retrieve consistent divergent wind flows. We examine the ability of this type analysis to capture regional details of ENSO related perturbations to the divergent wind and associated tropical energy balance. Precipitation from satellite is found to be the major constraint in supplying this horizontal structure. We also consider the ability of this analysis to quantify integrated (land vs. ocean) fluctuations in the global monsoonal flow and energy balance. This depends, of course, on the error characteristics of the data constraints. Some estimate of these properties and their relative importance is provided.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

In-Situ Environmental Measurements Needed for Future Mars Missions

Existing measurements and modeling studies indicate that the climate and general circulation of the thin, predominately CO2 Martian atmosphere are characterized by large-amplitude variations with a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Remote sensing observations from Earth-based telescopes and the Mariner 9, Viking, Phobos, and Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) orbiters show that the prevailing climate includes large-scale seasonal variations in surface and atmospheric temperatures (140 to 300 K), dust optical depth (0.15 to 1), and water vapor (10 to 100 precipitable microns). These observations also provided the first evidence for episodic regional and global dust storms that produce even larger perturbations in the atmospheric thermal structure and general circulation. In-situ measurements by the Viking and Mars Pathfinder Landers reinforced these conclusions, documenting changes in the atmospheric pressure on diurnal (5%) and seasonal (>20%) time scales, as well as large diurnal variations in the near-surface temperature (40 to 70 K), wind velocity (0 to 35 m/s), and dust optical depth (0.3 to 6). These in-situ measurements also reveal phenomena with temporal and spatial scales that cannot be resolved from orbit, including rapid changes in near-surface temperatures (+/- 10 K in 10 seconds), large near-surface vertical temperature gradients (+/- 15 K/meter), diurnally-varying slope winds, and dust devils . Modeling studies indicate that these changes are forced primarily by diurnal and seasonal variations in solar insolation, but they also include contributions from atmospheric thermal tides, baroclinic waves (fronts), Kelvin waves, slope winds, and monsoonal flows from the polar caps.

Crisp, D.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Regional Climate Studies with Variable-Resolution Stretched-Grid GCMs

A variable resolution GCM using a global stretched grid with fine resolution over the area(s) of interest, is a viable new approach to regional and subregional climate studies and applications. It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The first version of the SG-GCM based on the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) GCM using a finite-difference approximation, has been developed and thoroughly tested during the last few years. Successful simulations have been performed with the SG-GCM for the anomalous regional climate events of the U.S. 1988 summer drought and 1993 summer flood. They have shown the practical feasibility of the SG-approach for regional climate modeling. The GEOS SG-DAS (Data Assimilation System) incorporating the SG-GCM has also been developed and tested. The assimilated regional fields and diagnostics are used for validating the SG-GCM regional simulations. Two new SG-GCMs are being developed. The first is the SG-version of the new NASANCAR FV-GCM (with the finite-volume (FV) dynamics), and the second is the SG-version of the new GCM with spectral-element dynamics. Both GCMs use the WAR CCM4 physics. Using these advanced numerics will provide increased computational efficiency for the new the SG-GCMs, and will allow us to employ more flexible stretching strategies beneficial for the efficient regional down-scaling. The major current developments are focused on: simulating the 1997-1999 (and beyond) ENSO cycle and related monsoonal circulations, with enhanced regional resolution; studying intraseasonal and interannual regional climate variability for the extended multiyear (AMIP-type) SG-GCM simulations; and studying the impact of ensemble integrations.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2001

Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model

The response of cloud systems to their environment is an important link in a chain of processes responsible for monsoons, frontal depression, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes and other climate variations (e.g., 30-60 day intra-seasonal oscillations). Numerical models of cloud properties provide essential insights into the interactions of clouds with each other, with their surroundings, and with land and ocean surfaces. Significant advances are currently being made in the modeling of rainfall and rain-related cloud processes, ranging in scales from the very small up to the simulation of an extensive population of raining cumulus clouds in a tropical- or midlatitude-storm environment. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a multi-dimensional nonhydrostatic dynamic/microphysical cloud resolving model. It has been used to simulate many different mesoscale convective systems that occurred in various geographic locations. In this paper, recent GCE model improvements (microphysics, radiation and surface processes) will be described as well as their impact on the development of precipitation events from various geographic locations. The performance of these new physical processes will be examined by comparing the model results with observations. In addition, the explicit interactive processes between cloud, radiation and surface processes will be discussed.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2000

Snow Physics and Meltwater Hydrology of the SSiB Model Employed for Climate Simulation Studies with GEOS 2 GCM

Present-day climate models produce large climate drifts that interfere with the climate signals simulated in modelling studies. The simplifying assumptions of the physical parameterization of snow and ice processes lead to large biases in the annual cycles of surface temperature, evapotranspiration, and the water budget, which in turn causes erroneous land-atmosphere interactions. Since land processes are vital for climate prediction, and snow and snowmelt processes have been shown to affect Indian monsoons and North American rainfall and hydrology, special attention is now being given to cold land processes and their influence on the simulated annual cycle in GCMs. The snow model of the SSiB land-surface model being used at Goddard has evolved from a unified single snow-soil layer interacting with a deep soil layer through a force-restore procedure to a two-layer snow model atop a ground layer separated by a snow-ground interface. When the snow cover is deep, force-restore occurs within the snow layers. However, several other simplifying assumptions such as homogeneous snow cover, an empirical depth related surface albedo, snowmelt and melt-freeze in the diurnal cycles, and neglect of latent heat of soil freezing and thawing still remain as nagging problems. Several important influences of these assumptions will be discussed with the goal of improving them to better simulate the snowmelt and meltwater hydrology. Nevertheless, the current snow model (Mocko and Sud, 2000, submitted) better simulates cold land processes as compared to the original SSiB. This was confirmed against observations of soil moisture, runoff, and snow cover in global GSWP (Sud and Mocko, 1999) and point-scale Valdai simulations over seasonal snow regions. New results from the current snow model SSiB from the 10-year PILPS 2e intercomparison in northern Scandinavia will be presented.

Mocko, David M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Environmental Characteristics of Convective Systems During TRMM-LBA

In this paper, data collected from 51 days of continual upper atmospheric soundings and TOGA radar at ABRACOS Hill during the TRMM-LBA experiment are used to describe the mean thermodynamic and kinematic airmass properties of wet season convection over Rondonia, Brazil. Distinct multi-day easterly and westerly lower tropospheric wind regimes occurred during the campaign with contrasting airmass characteristics. Westerly wind periods featured modest CAPE (1000 J/kg), moist conditions (>90% RH) extending through 700 mb and shallow (900 mb) speed shear on the order of 10(exp -4)/s. This combination of characteristics promoted convective systems that featured a relatively large fraction of stratiform rainfall and weak convection nearly devoid of lightning. The environment is very similar to the general airmass conditions experienced during the Darwin, Australia monsoon convective regime. In contrast, easterly regime convective systems were more strongly electrified and featured larger convective rain rates and reduced stratiform rainfall fraction. These systems formed in an environment with significantly larger CAPE (1500 J/kg), drier lower and middle level humidities (< 80% RH) and a wind shear layer that was both stronger (10(exp -3)/s) and deeper (700 mb). The larger CAPE resulted from strong insolation under relatively cloud-free skies (owing to reduced column humidity) and was also weakly capped in the lowest 1-2 km, thus contributing to a more explosive growth of convection. The time series of low- and mid-level averaged humidity exhibited marked variability between westerly and easterly regimes and was characterized by low frequency (i.e., multi-day to weekly) oscillations. The synoptic scale origins of these moisture fluctuations are examined, which include the effects of variable low-level airmass trajectories and upper-level, westward migrating cyclonic vortices. The results reported herein provide an environmental context for ongoing dual Doppler analyses and numerical modeling case studies of individual TRMM-LBA convective systems.

Halverson, Jeffrey B.↗
NASA NTRS2000

SeaWinds Scatterometer on QuikSCAT Mission and the Emerging Land and Ocean Applications

Spaceborne scatterometers are active microwave radar instruments designed to acquire near-simultaneous, spatially collocated measurements of the normalized radar backscattering cross section (sigma0) of the global surface from several azimuth and/or incidence angles. The primary objective of the scatterometer mission is to measure the near-surface wind speed and direction over the global ocean using sigma0 measurements together with a wind geophysical model function. However, since sigma0 measurements are collected globally all the time, sigma0 data can also be used for global land and ice applications. In this paper, we will first present the objectives of the QSCAT mission, the instrument design, and the unique features of the Ku-band scatterometer currently in operation, called SeaWinds on QuikSCAT (QSCAT). We will then present some emerging land and ocean applications of the QSCAT data, which include (1) global snow detection and monitoring, (2) melt region mapping on the Greenland ice sheet, (3) Monsoon flood detection and monitoring, (4) soil wetness application at large scale, and (5) hurricane monitoring and tracking.

Tsai, W.-Y.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Cloud Slicing: A New Technique to Derive Upper Tropospheric Ozone from Satellite Measurements

A new technique denoted cloud slicing has been developed for measuring upper tropospheric ozone. Cloud slicing takes advantage of the opaque property of water vapor clouds to ultraviolet wavelength radiation. Measurements of above-cloud column ozone from the Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) instrument are combined together with Nimbus 7 temperature humidity and infrared radiometer (THIR) cloud-top pressure data to derive ozone column amounts in the upper troposphere. In this study tropical TOMS and THIR data for the period 1979-1984 are analyzed. By combining total tropospheric column ozone (denoted TCO) measurements from the convective cloud differential (CCD) method with 100-400 hPa upper tropospheric column ozone amounts from cloud slicing, it is possible to estimate 400-1000 hPa lower tropospheric column ozone and evaluate its spatial and temporal variability. Results for both the upper and lower tropical troposphere show a year-round zonal wave number 1 pattern in column ozone with largest amounts in the Atlantic region (up to 15 DU in the 100-400 hPa pressure band and around 25-30 DU in the 400-1000 hPa pressure band). Upper tropospheric ozone derived from cloud slicing shows maximum column amounts in the Atlantic region in the June-August and September-November seasons which is similar to the seasonal variability of CCD derived TCO in the region. For the lower troposphere, largest column amounts occur in the September-November season over Brazil in South America and also southern Africa. Localized increases in the tropics in lower tropospheric ozone are found over the northern region of South America around August and off the west coast of equatorial Africa in the March-May season. Time series analysis for several regions in South America and Africa show an anomalous increase in ozone in the lower troposphere around the month of March which is not observed in the upper troposphere. The eastern Pacific indicates weak seasonal variability of upper, lower, and total tropospheric ozone compared to the western Pacific which shows largest TCO amounts in both hemispheres around spring months. Ozone variability in the western Pacific is expected to have greater variability caused by strong convection, pollution and biomass burning, land/sea contrast and monsoon developments.

Ziemke, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Mechanism of Torrential Rain Associated with the Mei-yu Development during SCSMEX-98

A case of torrential precipitation process in the Mei-yu front, an Asian monsoon system east to the Tibetan Plateau, is studied with the coupled Penn State University/NCAR MM5 and NASA/GSFC PLACE (Parameterization for Land - Atmosphere - Cloud Exchange) models. Remote and local impacts of water vapor on the location and intensity of Mei-yu precipitation are studied by numerical experiments. Results demonstrate that the water vapor source for this heavy precipitation case in Yangtze river basin is derived mostly from the Bay of Bengal, transported by the southwesterly low-level Jet (LLJ) southeast to the Tibetan Plateau. The moist convection is a critical process in the development and maintenance of the front. The meridional and zonal secondary circulations resulted from Mei-yu condensation heating both act to increase the wind speed in the LLJ. The condensation induced local circulation strengthens the moisture transport in the LLJ, providing a positive feedback to sustain the Mei-yu precipitation system. It is found that local precipitation recycling shifts heavy rain toward the warm side of the Mei-yu front. This shift of rainfall location is due to the pronounced increase of atmospheric moisture and decrease of surface temperature over the warm side of the front.

Qian, Jian-Hua↗
NASA NTRS2002

Variable-Resolution GCMs

Variable resolution GCMs using a global stretched grid (SG) with enhanced regional resolute over multiple (four) areas of interest represent a viable new approach to regional climate and climate change studies and applications. The four areas, one at each global quadrant, include major global monsoonal circulations over North America, South America, India-China, and Australia. The SG-approach is an ideal tool for representing consistent interactions of global/large- and regional/mesoscales. It is an alternative to the widely used nested-grid approach. Several existing SG-GCMs are briefly described. The major discussion is based on the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) SG-GCM regional climate simulations.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Prospects for Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Subseasonal (2-Week to 2-Month) Times Scales

This workshop, held in April 2002, brought together various Earth Sciences experts to focus on the subseasonal prediction problem. While substantial advances have occurred over the last few decades in both weather and seasonal prediction, progress in improving predictions on these intermediate time scales (time scales ranging from about two weeks to two months) has been slow. The goals of the workshop were to get an assessment of the "state of the art" in predictive skill on these time scales, to determine the potential sources of "untapped" predictive skill, and to make recommendations for a course of action that will accelerate progress in this area. One of the key conclusions of the workshop was that there is compelling evidence for predictability at forecast lead times substantially longer than two weeks. Tropical diabatic heating and soil wetness were singled out as particularly important processes affecting predictability on these time scales. Predictability was also linked to various low-frequency atmospheric "phenomena" such as the annular modes in high latitudes (including their connections to the stratosphere), the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The latter, in particular, was highlighted as a key source of untapped predictability in the tropics and subtropics, including the Asian and Australian monsoon regions.

Schubert, Siegfried↗