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At least 487 records · Page 27
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DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of precipitation indices in suites of dynamically and statistically downscaled regional climate models over Florida

Abstract The present work evaluates historical precipitation and its indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) in suites of dynamically and statistically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) against NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset over Florida. The models examined here are: (1) nested RCMs involved in the North American CORDEX (NA-CORDEX) program, (2) variable resolution Community Earth System Models (VR-CESM), (3) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models statistically downscaled using localized constructed analogs (LOCA) technique. To quantify observational uncertainty, three in situ-based (PRISM, Livneh, CPC) and three reanalysis (ERA5, MERRA2, NARR) datasets are also evaluated against the station data. The reanalyses and dynamically downscaled RCMs generally underestimate the magnitude of the monthly precipitation and the frequency of the extreme rainfall in summer. The models forced with CanESM2 miss the phase of the seasonality of extreme precipitation. All models and reanalyses severely underestimate both the mean and interannual variability of mean wet-day precipitation (SDII), consecutive dry days (CDD), and overestimate consecutive wet days (CWD). Metric analysis suggests large uncertainty across NA-CORDEX models. Both the LOCA and VR-CESM models perform better than the majority of models. Overall, RegCM4 and WRF models perform poorer than the median model performance. The performance uncertainty across models is comparable to that in the reanalyses. Specifically, NARR performs poorer than the median model performance in simulating the mean indices and MERRA2 performs worse than the majority of models in capturing the interannual variability of the indices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vertically Resolved Analysis of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Highlights the Role of Convective Transport of Moist Static Energy

We simulate the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) over an aquaplanet with uniform surface temperature using the multiscale modeling framework (MMF) configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM-MMF). The model produces MJO-like features that have a similar spatial structure and propagation behavior to the observed MJO. To explore the processes involved in the propagation and maintenance of these MJO-like features, we perform a vertically resolved moist static energy (MSE) analysis for the MJO (Yao et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-20-0254.1). Unlike the column-integrated MSE analysis, our method emphasizes the local production of MSE variance and quantifies how individual physical processes amplify and propagate the MJO's characteristic vertical structure. We find that radiation, convection, and boundary layer (BL) processes all contribute to maintaining the MJO, balanced by the large-scale MSE transport. Furthermore, large-scale dynamics, convection, and BL processes all contribute to the propagation of the MJO, while radiation slows the propagation. Additionally, we perform mechanism-denial experiments to examine the role of radiation and associated feedbacks in simulating the MJO. We find that the MJO can still self-emerge and maintain its characteristic structures without radiative feedbacks. This study highlights the role of convective MSE transport in the MJO dynamics, which was overlooked in the column-integrated MSE analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine-Learning-Assisted Hybrid Earth System Modelling

We propose a novel hybrid modeling approach that combines a physics-based, numerical model of the Earth system with a machine learning model. We also envision to integrate the hybrid model training with a data assimilation cycle, so that new observations update both the state estimate used as initial conditions and the machine learning model parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Atmospheric System Research Workshop Report: New Directions in Atmospheric Ice Processes Research

Atmospheric ice processes are critical for precipitation production, cloud dynamics, and radiative properties and contribute to uncertainties in Earth’s energy budget and hydrological cycle, yet they remain poorly understood. To address this, ASR convened a 2.5-day workshop with 28 experts in laboratory measurements, field observations, and cloud modeling. The primary goal was to identify key knowledge gaps and prioritize future directions in atmospheric ice processes research. The outcomes of this workshop are expected to inform ASR and prompt improvements in cloud and Earth system models (ESMs) by advancing the fundamental understanding of ice processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Water balance response of permafrost-affected watersheds to changes in air temperatures

Abstract Observations show increases in river discharge to the Arctic Ocean especially in winter over the last decades but the physical mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. We hypothesize that even in the absence of a precipitation increase, permafrost degradation alone can lead to increased annual river runoff. To test this hypothesis we perform 12 millennium-long simulations over an idealized hypothetical watershed (1 km 2 ) using a distributed, physically based water balance model (Water flow and Balance Simulation Model, WaSiM). The model is forced by both a hypothetical warming defined by an air temperature increase of 7.5 ∘ C over 100 years, and a corresponding cooling scenario. To assess model sensitivity we vary soil saturated hydraulic conductivity and lateral subsurface flow configuration. Under the warming scenario, changes in subsurface water transport due to ground temperature changes result in a 7%–14% increase in annual runoff accompanied by a 6%–20% decrease in evapotranspiration. The increase in runoff is most pronounced in winter. Hence, the simulations demonstrate that changes in permafrost characteristics due to climate warming and associated changes in evapotranspiration provide a plausible mechanism for the observed runoff increases in Arctic watersheds. In addition, our experiments show that when lateral subsurface moisture transport is not included, as commonly done in global-scale Earth System Models, the equilibrium water balance in response to the warming or cooling is similar to the water balance in simulations where lateral subsurface transport is included. However, the transient changes in water balance components prior to reaching equilibrium differ greatly between the two. For example, for high saturated hydraulic conductivity only when lateral subsurface transport is considered, a period of decreased runoff occurs immediately after the warming. This period is characterized by a positive change in soil moisture storage caused by the soil moisture deficit developed during prior cooling.

Debolskiy, Matvey V. (ORCID:0000000296343627)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Vegetation Warming Experiment: 15N Uptake Experiment Environmental Observations and Thaw Depth, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2018

This dataset consists of measured soil thaw depth, soil temperature, soil moisture, and Arctagrostis latifolia height in vegetation warming experiment enclosures and paired control plots. Vegetation warming chambers (Zero Power) were deployed on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska. These chambers (Figure 1) consistently elevated air temperatures by approximately 4°C using a self-venting system described by Lewin et al (2017). Five chambers were deployed from June 17, 2018 to September 24, 2018 on the BEO within a 1 km2 area centered on 71.275N, -156.641W. Each chamber was co-located with an ambient plot where temperatures were not manipulated on patches of tundra containing the target species Arctagrostis latifolia. An intensive field campaign in late July investigated the impact of warming had on A. latifolia biomass, chemistry, and uptake of 15N labeled ammonia that was injected into the surface soils for one week. Initial measurements were taken on July 21, 2018. Harvest occurred on July 27, 2018. Water-extractable nutrients in soils were measured in July following harvests of A. latifolia plants and underlying soils. Availability of ammonia, nitrate, and phosphate throughout the growing season was measured by extracting nutrients bound to anion and cation binding resins deployed from July through September. Environmental variables (thaw depth, surface soil temperatures, surface soil moisture) were measured. Leaf traits and root traits of A. latifolia were also measured. Included are two *.csv data files and one *.pdf user guide. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-Pressure Melting Experiments of Fe 3 C and a Thermodynamic Model of Fe-C Liquids for the Earth's Core

Melting experiments of Fe 3 C were conducted to 85 GPa in laser-heated diamond anvil cells with in situ X-ray diffraction and post-experiment textural observation. From the determined pressure-temperature conditions of the melting curve for Fe 3 C, together with literature data on the melting point of diamond and eutectic point of the system Fe-Fe 3 C/Fe 7 C 3 under high pressures, we established a self-consistent thermodynamic model for high-pressure melting of the system Fe-C including the mixing parameters for liquids. The results show that mixing of Fe and C liquids is negatively nonideal from 1 bar to the pressure at the center of the Earth. The departure from ideal mixing becomes progressively larger with increasing pressure, which leads to greatly stabilized liquids under core pressures. The modeled carbon content in eutectic melts under core pressures is 3.3–4.4 wt%. From the Gibbs free energy, we derived an internally consistent parameters for Fe-C outer cores which included the crystallizing points at their bottoms, isentropic thermal profiles, and densities and longitudinal seismic wave speeds (Vp). While the addition of carbon in excess of the eutectic melt composition effectively reduces the density of iron liquid, the Vp of iron liquid is not greatly changed. Therefore, the low density and high Vp of PREM relative to pure iron cannot be reconciled by an Fe-C liquid. Therefore, the Earth's core cannot be approximated by the system Fe-C and should include another light element.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Arctic Ocean annual high in ${{\boldsymbol{p}}}_{{{\bf{CO}}}_{{\bf{2}}}}$ could shift from winter to summer

Long-term stress on marine organisms from ocean acidification will differ between seasons. As atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) increases, so do seasonal variations of ocean CO 2 partial pressure (p co 2 ), causing summer and winter long-term trends to diverge. Trends may be further influenced by an unexplored factor—changes in the seasonal timing of p co 2 . In Arctic Ocean surface waters, the observed timing is typified by a winter high and summer low because biological effects dominate thermal effects. Here we show that 27 Earth system models simulate similar timing under historical forcing but generally project that the summer low, relative to the annual mean, eventually becomes a high across much of the Arctic Ocean under mid-to-high-level CO 2 emissions scenarios. Often the greater increase in summer p co 2 , although gradual, abruptly inverses the chronological order of the annual high and low, a phenomenon not previously seen in climate-related variables. The main cause is the large summer sea surface warming from earlier retreat of seasonal sea ice. Warming and changes in other drivers enhance this century’s increase in extreme summer p co 2 by 29 ± 9 per cent compared with no change in driver seasonalities. Thus the timing change worsens summer ocean acidification, which in turn may lower the tolerance of endemic marine organisms to increasing summer temperatures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Southern Ocean latitudinal gradients of cloud condensation nuclei

Abstract. The Southern Ocean region is one of the most pristine in the world and serves as an important proxy for the pre-industrial atmosphere. Improving our understanding of the natural processes in this region is likely to result in the largest reductions in the uncertainty of climate and earth system models. While remoteness from anthropogenic and continental sources is responsible for its clean atmosphere, this also results in the dearth of atmospheric observations in the region. Here we present a statistical summary of the latitudinal gradient of aerosol (condensation nuclei larger than 10 nm, CN10) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN at various supersaturations) concentrations obtained from five voyages spanning the Southern Ocean between Australia and Antarctica from late spring to early autumn (October to March) of the 2017/18 austral seasons. Three main regions of influence were identified: the northern sector (40–45∘ S), where continental and anthropogenic sources coexisted with background marine aerosol populations; the mid-latitude sector (45–65∘ S), where the aerosol populations reflected a mixture of biogenic and sea-salt aerosol; and the southern sector (65–70∘ S), south of the atmospheric polar front, where sea-salt aerosol concentrations were greatly reduced and aerosol populations were primarily biologically derived sulfur species with a significant history in the Antarctic free troposphere. The northern sector showed the highest number concentrations with median (25th to 75th percentiles) CN10 and CCN0.5 concentrations of 681 (388–839) cm−3 and 322 (105–443) cm−3, respectively. Concentrations in the mid-latitudes were typically around 350 cm−3 and 160 cm−3 for CN10 and CCN0.5, respectively. In the southern sector, concentrations rose markedly, reaching 447 (298–446) cm−3 and 232 (186–271) cm−3 for CN10 and CCN0.5, respectively. The aerosol composition in this sector was marked by a distinct drop in sea salt and increase in both sulfate fraction and absolute concentrations, resulting in a substantially higher CCN0.5/CN10 activation ratio of 0.8 compared to around 0.4 for mid-latitudes. Long-term measurements at land-based research stations surrounding the Southern Ocean were found to be good representations at their respective latitudes; however this study highlighted the need for more long-term measurements in the region. CCN observations at Cape Grim (40∘39′ S) corresponded with CCN measurements from northern and mid-latitude sectors, while CN10 observations only corresponded with observations from the northern sector. Measurements from a simultaneous 2-year campaign at Macquarie Island (54∘30′ S) were found to represent all aerosol species well. The southernmost latitudes differed significantly from both of these stations, and previous work suggests that Antarctic stations on the East Antarctic coastline do not represent the East Antarctic sea-ice latitudes well. Further measurements are needed to capture the long-term, seasonal and longitudinal variability in aerosol processes across the Southern Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Systematic and objective evaluation of Earth system models: PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP) version 3

Systematic, routine, and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) facilitates benchmarking improvement across model generations and identifying the strengths and weaknesses of different model configurations. By gauging the consistency between models and observations, this endeavor is becoming increasingly necessary to objectively synthesize the thousands of simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to date. The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) Metrics Package (PMP) is an open-source Python software package that provides quick-look objective comparisons of ESMs with one another and with observations. The comparisons include metrics of large- to global-scale climatologies, tropical inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability modes such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), extratropical modes of variability, regional monsoons, cloud radiative feedbacks, and high-frequency characteristics of simulated precipitation, including its extremes. The PMP comparison results are produced using all model simulations contributed to CMIP6 and earlier CMIP phases. An important objective of the PMP is to document the performance of ESMs participating in the recent phases of CMIP, together with providing version-controlled information for all datasets, software packages, and analysis codes being used in the evaluation process. Among other purposes, this also enables modeling groups to assess performance changes during the ESM development cycle in the context of the error distribution of the multi-model ensemble. Quantitative model evaluation provided by the PMP can assist modelers in their development priorities. In this paper, we provide an overview of the PMP, including its latest capabilities, and discuss its future direction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

DisasterAWARE – A Global Alerting Platform for Flood Events

The rising number of flooding events combined with increased urbanization is contributing to significant economic losses due to damages to structures and infrastructures. From a risk reduction and resilience perspective, it is not only essential to forecast flood risk and potential impacts, but also to disseminate the information to stakeholders on the ground for rapid implementation of mitigation and response measures. This paper provides (i) an introduction to DisasterAWARE®, a global alerting system, that is used to disseminate flood risk information to stakeholders across the globe, and (ii) a discussion of the models implemented using earth observation data (Synthetic Aperture Radar and optical imagery) for near real-time assessment of flood severity and potential flood impacts to infrastructures. While the models are still in their nascent stage, a case study implementation of the models for the 2020 flooding event in Africa is presented to showcase the model integration with DisasterAWARE®.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases

Most current climate models predict that the equatorial Pacific will evolve under greenhouse gas–induced warming to a more El Niño-like state over the next several decades, with a reduced zonal sea surface temperature gradient and weakened atmospheric Walker circulation. Yet, observations over the last 50 y show the opposite trend, toward a more La Niña-like state. Recent research provides evidence that the discrepancy cannot be dismissed as due to internal variability but rather that the models are incorrectly simulating the equatorial Pacific response to greenhouse gas warming. This implies that projections of regional tropical cyclone activity may be incorrect as well, perhaps even in the direction of change, in ways that can be understood by analogy to historical El Niño and La Niña events: North Pacific tropical cyclone projections will be too active, North Atlantic ones not active enough, for example. Other perils, including severe convective storms and droughts, will also be projected erroneously. While it can be argued that these errors are transient, such that the models’ responses to greenhouse gases may be correct in equilibrium, the transient response is relevant for climate adaptation in the next several decades. Given the urgency of understanding regional patterns of climate risk in the near term, it would be desirable to develop projections that represent a broader range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios—including some in which recent historical trends continue—even if such projections cannot currently be produced using existing coupled earth system models.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combining artificial intelligence, Earth observations, and climate models to improve predictability of ice-biogeochemistry interactions

Focal Area: Predictive Modeling. We describe how artificial intelligence (AI) can be combined with state-of-the-science Earth system models to better predict future regional climate responses. To demonstrate, we describe a case study in biogeochemical interactions with sea ice. Science Challenge: Biogeochemical models are poorly constrained for high latitude systems. Machine learning methods and edge computing can be combined with Earth system models, such as the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), to gain insight into ice-biogeochemical interactions and improve sea ice extent prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pyrocumulonimbus Events Over British Columbia in 2017: An Ensemble Model Study of Parameter Sensitivities and Climate Impacts of Wildfire Smoke in the Stratosphere

Abstract The Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events over British Columbia in 2017 were observed in the lower stratosphere for about 8–10 months after the smoke injections. Several previous studies used global climate models to investigate the physical parameters for the 2017 pyroCb events, but the conclusions show strong model dependency. In this study, we use the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and complete an ensemble of runs exploring three injection parameters: smoke aerosol mass, the percentage of black carbon within the smoke aerosols, and plume injection height. Additionally, we consider the heterogeneous reaction of ozone and primary organic matter. According to the satellite daily observed aerosol optical depth (AOD), we find that the best ensemble member is the simulation with 0.4 Tg of smoke, 3% of which is black carbon, a 13.5 km smoke injection height, and a 10 −5 probability factor of the heterogeneous reaction. Besides AOD, we examine the ensemble score based on the metrics used in previous studies: the metrics of the extinction coefficient at 18 km altitude and the maximum plume height. The conclusion of the best estimate of the injection parameters for 2017 pyroCb events shows strong not only model but also evaluation metric dependency. We use the Random Forest machine learning technique to quantify the relative importance of each parameter in accurately simulating the 2017 pyroCb events and find that the injection height is the most critical feature, no matter which metric is used to score the ensemble members.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Convective Momentum Transport and Its Impact on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in E3SM‐MMF

Abstract Convective momentum transport (CMT) is the process of vertical redistribution of horizontal momentum by small‐scale turbulent flows from moist convection. Traditional general circulation models (GCMs) and their multiscale modeling framework (MMF) versions poorly represent CMT due to insufficient information of subgrid‐scale flows at each GCM grid. Here the explicit scalar momentum transport (ESMT) scheme for representing CMT is implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model‐Multiscale Modeling Framework (E3SM‐MMF) with embedded 2‐D cloud‐resolving models (CRMs), and verified against E3SM‐MMF simulations with 3‐D CRMs and observations. The results show that representing CMT by ESMT helps reduce climatological mean precipitation model bias over the western Pacific and the ITCZ regions, which is attributed to the weakened mean easterlies over the Pacific. Also, CMT from simulations with 2‐D and 3‐D CRMs impose a similar impact on Kelvin waves by reducing their variability and slowing down their phase speed, but opposite impacts on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) variability. The ESMT scheme readily captures the climatological mean spatial patterns of the zonal and meridional components of CMT and their variability across multiple time scales, but shows some differences in estimating its magnitude. CMT mainly affects the MJO by decelerating its winds in the free troposphere, but accelerates its near‐surface winds. This study serves as a prototype for implementing CMT scheme in the MMF simulations, highlighting its crucial role in reducing model bias in mean state and spatiotemporal variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Summer Aerosol and Trace Gas Observations in Houston, Texas Using an Adaptable Mobile Facility

An aerosol container featuring a shared inlet system was deployed to Houston, Texas in July 2022, enabling direct, high-time-resolution in situ measurements of aerosols and trace gases. The internal rack system and floorplan was designed for adaptable modularity to elucidate aerosol physicochemical processes at fine scales. The design allowed for the deployment of a core instrument suite and additional customized research grade instruments. A heterogeneous mixture of aerosols was observed during three regimes: (1) intermittent black carbon (BC) and diurnal variations in aerosol chemical composition, (2) observed particle growth associated with SO 2 , (3) transported supermicron dust. The high variability of observed particles and gases in high time resolution indicated a complex urban area with multiple local and regional sources and processes. Particle growth rates of 7–16 nm/hr were observed for submicron particles during periods when SO 2 was >0.5 ppbv. Two periods of multi-day long-range transport events of dust from the African Sahara were observed in the supermicron and submicron particle modes with total mass concentrations up to 30 μg m −3 . Aerosol scattering angstrom exponents and extinction coefficients (B ext ) increased with humidity as a function of particle composition. The measurements demonstrate collaborative capabilities that can be used to increase observations of aerosol processing, microphysical and optical properties, internal mixing state, and supermicron aerosol that are not parameterized or missing in global Earth energy system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating soil thermal inertia profiles from the passive equilibration of a temperature probe: Supporting data and code

This dataset contains measurements of soil thermal properties and organic layer thickness at three field sites on the Seward Peninsula near Nome, Alaska, USA. Code is also provided for estimation of soil thermal properties from temperature data, including a forward heat transfer mode, a library of simulated temperature data, and an inversion scheme to retrieve thermal properties from temperature measurements (Lamb et al., 2025). This dataset and code is published in support of the manuscript “Estimating Soil Thermal Inertia Profiles from the Passive Equilibration of a Temperature Probe” by Lamb et al., 2025, in which an experimental thermal measurements technique is developed. The dataset contains measurements of soil thermal properties and organic layer thickness obtained with an industry standard thermal properties analyzer and direct observations, as well as data generated using the experimental technique to estimate thermal properties and soil structure from temperature observations. All data is reported in .csv format, and all code is written in Python 3.7 using standard packages. This research was performed as a part of the NGEE Arctic project, which aims to advance model predictions of arctic carbon cycle responses to a changing climate over the 21st Century.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗